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Your Next Winning
Move
CBSACNY
New York
January 23 2014
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Mohammad Yunus

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Ratan Tata

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Betsy Johnson
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Thomas Edison
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Ray Kroc
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Richard
Branson

Oprah
Winfrey

Dhirubhai
Ambani

Bill Gates

Sōichirō
Honda

Charles
Revson

www.kaihan.net

Elizabeth
Ar...
Martin Luther
King, Jr.

Rosa Parks

Mother
Teresa

Mahatma
Gandhi

Mohammad
Yunus

Margaret
Thatcher

www.kaihan.net

Nel...
“First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.”

Mohandas Gandhi

www.kaihan.net

2013...
The

th
4

Option®

The option beyond the obvious choices;
the option others do not see, will not
consider, and will not r...
Climb the walls

Wait

Go home

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
What is your next
th Option®?
4

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Two Standard Approaches
Option narrowing

Rules
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

X
X
X

Lay out options,
apply data, arrive at
the optim...
Five Conversations:
The Outthinker Process
Imagine

Dissect

Expand

Analyze

Sell

Choose
leverage
points others
overlook...
Personal Example

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Five Conversations:
The Outthinker Process
Imagine

Objectives
Imagine and
commit to
realizing a
different
future

www.kai...
Five Conversations:
The Outthinker Process
Imagine

Dissect

Expand

Choose
leverage
points others
overlook

Generate
more...
How Do Great Strategists See the
“Winning Move?”

Alexandra Kosteniuk
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights ...
Consciousness

Phonetic loop

Source:

Visuo-special
sketchpad

Episodic buffer

Baddeley model of short term working memo...
Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:

Grand master

Master
www.kaihan.net

Expert
2013 Kaihan Krippendor...
Europe & Americas –
Fairy tales

Japan – Koan

India – Puranas

China – 36 stratagems

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippen...
Identifying Outthinkers

Revenue growth
(CAGR)

(EBITDA)
Profit margin

Value creation
(TRS)

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan ...
Core Research

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#7 Force two-...
22 Move Early to the Next Battleground

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
22 Move Early to the Next Battleground
“I just think a future in
which anyone can shoot
stuff into space is more
exciting ...
22 Move Early to the Next Battleground

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
22 Move Early to the Next Battleground
Identify and move early to the next
battleground.
Where is the next battleground?
-...
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#7 Force two-...
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
34

Coordinate the Uncoordinated

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
34

Coordinate the Uncoordinated

www.kaihan.net

49

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
34

Coordinate the Uncoordinated
Combine and coordinate independent
elements within your environment to
orchestrate much g...
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#7 Force two-...
7 Force a Two-Front Battle

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
7 Force a Two-Front Battle
“There is no physical analog for
what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos

Cloud
providers

R...
7 Force a Two-Front Battle

Shoes

Customer
service

www.kaihan.net

Shoes

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Traditional
CPA firms

Resources
(Accnts)

www.kaihan.net

Projects

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff A...
7 Force a two-front battle

Project your what you are great at into a
new area.
What is your unique advantage, capability,...
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#7 Force two-...
33

Be Good
Shareholders

Environment

Community

Corporation
Government /
country

Employees

Customers

www.kaihan.net

...
33 Be Good

www.kaihan.net

61

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
The Holstee
Manifesto

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
33

Be good
Adopt a strategy that benefits others.
What purpose/ mission/ movement would
build support from stakeholders t...
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#7 Force two-...
32 Create Something Out of Nothing

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
32 Create Something Out of Nothing

Julie Pickens
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
32 Create Something Out of Nothing

Ingvar Kamprad

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
32 Create Something Out of Nothing

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
32 Create Something Out of Nothing

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
32 Create something out of nothing
Add a new piece the board.
What would you like to create/ add
to the game?
- New catego...
Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#22 Move early to the next battleground

Where is the next battleground?

#34 Coordina...
Five Conversations:
The Outthinker Process
Imagine

Dissect

Expand

Analyze

Choose
leverage
points others
overlook

Gene...
“Impossible is a word to
be found only in the
dictionary of fools.”
Napoleon Bonaparte

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippe...
Selecting your 4th Option
High Crazy ideas

Winning moves

Impact
• How far would
this get me
toward my
goal?
• How long
b...
Selecting your 4th Option
High Crazy ideas

Winning moves

Impact
• How far would
this get me
toward my
goal?
• How long
b...
Make the impossible possible
“Each of these
looked like show
stoppers”

Don’t build
handsets

Risk of no
WiFi

David Morke...
Imagine

Dissect

Expand

Analyze

Sell

Choose
leverage
points others
overlook

Generate
more
potential
strategies

Choos...
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Mohammad Yunus

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Thomas Edison
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Ratan Tata

www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Ray Kroc
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Betsy Johnson
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
kaihan@outthinker.com
www.outthinker.com
@kaihan
• Email me to get
presentation
• Register for newsletter,
tools, videos
•...
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net

2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Outthinker 45 Min Talk for Columbia Alumni Club NY

A compressed, 45 minute presentation on disruptive strategic thinking we delivered for the Columbia Business School Alumni Club of New York

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Outthinker 45 Min Talk for Columbia Alumni Club NY

  1. 1. Your Next Winning Move CBSACNY New York January 23 2014 www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  2. 2. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  3. 3. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  4. 4. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  5. 5. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  6. 6. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  7. 7. Ratan Tata www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  8. 8. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  9. 9. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  10. 10. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  11. 11. Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Sōichirō Honda Charles Revson www.kaihan.net Elizabeth Arden Henry Ford 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  12. 12. Martin Luther King, Jr. Rosa Parks Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher www.kaihan.net Nelson Mandela Benjamin Franklin 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  13. 13. “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  14. 14. The th 4 Option® The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  15. 15. Climb the walls Wait Go home www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  16. 16. What is your next th Option®? 4 www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  17. 17. Two Standard Approaches Option narrowing Rules 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. X X X Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option Alkdjfklsdlkj Asdlkfj bou Alsk boiuoidf Goibjhkal dgs Glijgbuu gds gljgoiud Follow proven rules or best practices www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  18. 18. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Choose strategies competitors will not copy Build buy-in for your strategy Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  19. 19. Personal Example www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  20. 20. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process Imagine Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  21. 21. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process Imagine Dissect Expand Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  22. 22. How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?” Alexandra Kosteniuk www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  23. 23. Consciousness Phonetic loop Source: Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer Baddeley model of short term working memory www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  24. 24. Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master www.kaihan.net Expert 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  25. 25. Europe & Americas – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  26. 26. Identifying Outthinkers Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin Value creation (TRS) www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  27. 27. Core Research www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  28. 28. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  29. 29. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  30. 30. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview) www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  31. 31. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  32. 32. 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  33. 33. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  34. 34. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  35. 35. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  36. 36. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  37. 37. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  38. 38. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated www.kaihan.net 49 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  39. 39. 34 Coordinate the Uncoordinated Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways -… www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  40. 40. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  41. 41. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  42. 42. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos Cloud providers Retail www.kaihan.net Cloud services 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  43. 43. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Shoes Customer service www.kaihan.net Shoes 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  44. 44. 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional CPA firms Resources (Accnts) www.kaihan.net Projects 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  45. 45. 7 Force a two-front battle Project your what you are great at into a new area. What is your unique advantage, capability, or purpose? Into what new area could you project this? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  46. 46. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  47. 47. 33 Be Good Shareholders Environment Community Corporation Government / country Employees Customers www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  48. 48. 33 Be Good www.kaihan.net 61 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  49. 49. The Holstee Manifesto www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  50. 50. 33 Be good Adopt a strategy that benefits others. What purpose/ mission/ movement would build support from stakeholders that can help you succeed? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  51. 51. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #7 Force two-front battle #33 Be good #32 Create something out of nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  52. 52. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  53. 53. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing Julie Pickens www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  54. 54. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing Ingvar Kamprad www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  55. 55. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  56. 56. 32 Create Something Out of Nothing www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  57. 57. 32 Create something out of nothing Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  58. 58. Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  59. 59. Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #22 Move early to the next battleground Where is the next battleground? #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated Who could you coordinate? #7 Force two-front battle How can you project into a new sector? #33 Be good How can you be good? #32 Create something out of nothing What can you create? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  60. 60. Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Choose strategies competitors will not copy Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  61. 61. “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  62. 62. Selecting your 4th Option High Crazy ideas Winning moves Impact • How far would this get me toward my goal? • How long before the competition responds? Wastes of time Tactics Low Difficult Easy • Can we do this quickly? • Is this inexpensive? • Do we have the capability? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  63. 63. Selecting your 4th Option High Crazy ideas Winning moves Impact • How far would this get me toward my goal? • How long before the competition responds? Wastes of time Tactics Low Difficult Easy • Can we do this quickly? • Is this inexpensive? • Do we have the capability? www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  64. 64. Make the impossible possible “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com www.kaihan.net Motorola Early adopters Customer Service too costly No one provides service 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  65. 65. Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell Choose leverage points others overlook Generate more potential strategies Choose strategies competitors will not copy Build buy-in for your strategy Objectives Imagine and commit to realizing a different future Mr. Practical Mr. Obvious Mr. Expert www.kaihan.net Mr. What Works Mr. Cog 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  66. 66. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  67. 67. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  68. 68. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  69. 69. Mohammad Yunus www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  70. 70. Thomas Edison www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  71. 71. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  72. 72. Ratan Tata www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  73. 73. Ray Kroc www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  74. 74. Betsy Johnson www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  75. 75. kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com @kaihan • Email me to get presentation • Register for newsletter, tools, videos • Work out your Fourth Option® • Contact us for more support www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  76. 76. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  77. 77. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  78. 78. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
  79. 79. www.kaihan.net 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.

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