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Date - 25th Sep 2013Date - 25th Sep 2013Date - 25 Sep 2013
Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUY
CMP - INR 1101.00 TP - INR 1453.00 RiskCMP - INR 1101.00 TP - INR 1453.00 RiskCMP - INR 1101.00 TP - INR 1453.00 Risk
TH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % ReturnTH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % ReturnTH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % ReturnTH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % Return
We initiate coverage on Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. (J&K BankWe initiate coverage on Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. (J&K BankWe initiate coverage on Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. (J&K Bank
a price target of Rs 1453 (1.22x FY14 P/BV) over a perioda price target of Rs 1453 (1.22x FY14 P/BV) over a perioda price target of Rs 1453 (1.22x FY14 P/BV) over a period
representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101
at 0.9x and 0.8x its P/BV for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. J&Kat 0.9x and 0.8x its P/BV for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. J&Kat 0.9x and 0.8x its P/BV for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. J&K
focusing on the high margin loan book in the J&K state,focusing on the high margin loan book in the J&K state,focusing on the high margin loan book in the J&K state,
Potential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiencyPotential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiencyPotential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiencyPotential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiency
quality should lead to an impressive growth in top and bottomquality should lead to an impressive growth in top and bottomquality should lead to an impressive growth in top and bottom
a CAGR of 23% and 20%, respectively over the period of FYa CAGR of 23% and 20%, respectively over the period of FYa CAGR of 23% and 20%, respectively over the period of FY
constant dividend paying history of past several years and bestconstant dividend paying history of past several years and bestconstant dividend paying history of past several years and best
return ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunity
constant dividend paying history of past several years and best
return ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunityreturn ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunityreturn ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunity
Investment rationaleInvestment rationaleInvestment rationale
Healthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continue
Loan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last five
deposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over thedeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over thedeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over the
FY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectively
to FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongto FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongto FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity along
infrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expect
growth for J&K in the near future.growth for J&K in the near future.growth for J&K in the near future.
Strong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominions
J&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&KJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&KJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K
behalf of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of thebehalf of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of thebehalf of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the
It has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branchesIt has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branchesIt has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branchesIt has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branches
80% of total branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates80% of total branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates80% of total branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates
market share in total advances and 65% market share in total depositsmarket share in total advances and 65% market share in total depositsmarket share in total advances and 65% market share in total deposits
Focus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIM
With strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towards
bank will support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6bank will support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6bank will support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6
and 2.50% outside the state. As per our financial model we stronglyand 2.50% outside the state. As per our financial model we stronglyand 2.50% outside the state. As per our financial model we strongly
bank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FYbank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FYbank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FYbank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FY
BUYBUYBUYBUYBUY
Risk - MediumRisk - MediumRisk - Medium
Return - High “> 25%”Return - High “> 25%”Return - High “> 25%”Return - High “> 25%”
Bank Ltd.) as a BUY withBank Ltd.) as a BUY withBank Ltd.) as a BUY with
period of 12 to 15 months Market Dataperiod of 12 to 15 months Market Dataperiod of 12 to 15 months
1101, the stock is trading
Market Data
Sensex / Nifty 19856/58741101, the stock is trading Sensex / Nifty 19856/58741101, the stock is trading Sensex / Nifty 19856/5874
Equity Shares (Cr) 4.84
1101, the stock is trading
J&K Bank’s strategy of Equity Shares (Cr) 4.84J&K Bank’s strategy of Equity Shares (Cr) 4.84
Face Value (INR) 10.00
J&K Bank’s strategy of
has observed a huge
Face Value (INR) 10.00
has observed a huge
Face Value (INR) 10.00
Avg 12m Vol (‘000) 11.54
has observed a huge
and improving asset
Avg 12m Vol (‘000) 11.54
and improving asset
Avg 12m Vol (‘000) 11.54
52-wk HI/LO (INR) 937/1473and improving asset 52-wk HI/LO (INR) 937/1473and improving asset
bottom line numbers at
52-wk HI/LO (INR) 937/1473
Free Float (Cr) 2610.00bottom line numbers at Free Float (Cr) 2610.00bottom line numbers at
FY13A to FY16E. With a
Free Float (Cr) 2610.00
O/S shares (Cr) 48.49FY13A to FY16E. With a O/S shares (Cr) 48.49FY13A to FY16E. With a
best in class share holder
O/S shares (Cr) 48.49
Market Cap (Cr) 5333.90best in class share holder Market Cap (Cr) 5333.90best in class share holder
opportunity.
Market Cap (Cr) 5333.90best in class share holder
opportunity.opportunity.
Y/E Mar (Cr) FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
opportunity.
Y/E Mar (Cr) FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EY/E Mar (Cr) FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
NII 2316 2803 3315 3978NII 2316 2803 3315 3978NII 2316 2803 3315 3978
OP 1811 2247 2699 3294OP 1811 2247 2699 3294OP 1811 2247 2699 3294
NP 1055 1253 1496 1823NP 1055 1253 1496 1823
five years (loan book and
NP 1055 1253 1496 1823
EPS (INR) 218 258 309 376five years (loan book and EPS (INR) 218 258 309 376five years (loan book and
the period of FY09A to
EPS (INR) 218 258 309 376
DPS (INR) 50 59 71 86the period of FY09A to DPS (INR) 50 59 71 86the period of FY09A to
respectively over FY13A
DPS (INR) 50 59 71 86
NIM (%) 4% 4% 4% 4%
respectively over FY13A NIM (%) 4% 4% 4% 4%
respectively over FY13A NIM (%) 4% 4% 4% 4%
Div Yield (%) 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%
respectively over FY13A
along with the focus on
Div Yield (%) 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%
along with the focus on
Div Yield (%) 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%
ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%along with the focus on
expect an increase in the
ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%
expect an increase in the
ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%
ROA (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3.5%expect an increase in the ROA (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3.5%
P/E (X) 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9P/E (X) 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9
dominions
P/E (X) 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9
P/BV (X) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7dominions P/BV (X) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7dominions P/BV (X) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7dominions
J&K . It has right to act ofJ&K . It has right to act of
Holding Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13
J&K . It has right to act of
the central government.
Holding Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13
the central government.
Holding Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13
Promoter 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% 53.17%
the central government.
branches which comprises
Promoter 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% 53.17%
branches which comprises
Promoter 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% 53.17%
FII 24.75% 24.54% 24.28% 24.76%branches which comprises FII 24.75% 24.54% 24.28% 24.76%branches which comprises
dominates the region with 70%
FII 24.75% 24.54% 24.28% 24.76%
DII 4.95% 4.91% 4.89% 3.90%dominates the region with 70% DII 4.95% 4.91% 4.89% 3.90%dominates the region with 70%
deposits in the state.
DII 4.95% 4.91% 4.89% 3.90%
Non Institutions 17.13% 17.38% 17.66% 18.17%deposits in the state. Non Institutions 17.13% 17.38% 17.66% 18.17%deposits in the state. Non Institutions 17.13% 17.38% 17.66% 18.17%
Analyst Details
towards J&K state, J&K Analyst Details
towards J&K state, J&K Analyst Details
Pushkaraj Jamsandekar
towards J&K state, J&K
6.20% within the state
Pushkaraj Jamsandekar
6.20% within the state
Pushkaraj Jamsandekar
Contact - +098691395076.20% within the state
strongly expect that J&K
Contact - +09869139507
strongly expect that J&K
Contact - +09869139507
Mail ID - pushkarajjamsandekar@yahoo.comstrongly expect that J&K
FY14E.
Mail ID - pushkarajjamsandekar@yahoo.com
FY14E.
Mail ID - pushkarajjamsandekar@yahoo.com
Perception Research & AdvisoryFY14E. Perception Research & AdvisoryFY14E. Perception Research & Advisory
Huge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural Lending
J&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output andJ&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output andJ&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output andJ&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output and
dedicated to apple cultivation. Out of a total of more than 283000dedicated to apple cultivation. Out of a total of more than 283000dedicated to apple cultivation. Out of a total of more than 283000
State, Bank’s finance has been extended to about 17300 growersState, Bank’s finance has been extended to about 17300 growersState, Bank’s finance has been extended to about 17300 growers
remaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr moreremaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr moreremaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr moreremaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr more
Apple growers get their financing from traders and are unawareApple growers get their financing from traders and are unawareApple growers get their financing from traders and are unaware
cost works out to 36% to 54%, against the Bank’s interest rangingcost works out to 36% to 54%, against the Bank’s interest rangingcost works out to 36% to 54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging
Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335
incremental Agricultural Advances at Base Rate of 10.25 %incremental Agricultural Advances at Base Rate of 10.25 %incremental Agricultural Advances at Base Rate of 10.25 %
(10.25% –4%) would generate an incremental revenue of about(10.25% –4%) would generate an incremental revenue of about(10.25% –4%) would generate an incremental revenue of about
lending Rs. 2335 Cr to agricultural sector.lending Rs. 2335 Cr to agricultural sector.lending Rs. 2335 Cr to agricultural sector.
Massive expansion in networkMassive expansion in networkMassive expansion in networkMassive expansion in network
To improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the more
business J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their network
impressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalent
of FY15.of FY15.of FY15.
Cheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yield
At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price
times. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividend
At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price
times. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividend
comfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading at
for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.
and controls 49 % of landand controls 49 % of landand controls 49 % of landand controls 49 % of land
283000 apple growers in the283000 apple growers in the283000 apple growers in the
growers so far. Tapping thegrowers so far. Tapping thegrowers so far. Tapping the
more. In J&K state’s 75% ofmore. In J&K state’s 75% ofmore. In J&K state’s 75% ofmore. In J&K state’s 75% of
unaware that its effective interestunaware that its effective interestunaware that its effective interest
ranging from 4% to 11%.ranging from 4% to 11%.ranging from 4% to 11%.
2335 cr. Assuming yield on2335 cr. Assuming yield on2335 cr. Assuming yield on2335 cr. Assuming yield on
%, the incremental yield%, the incremental yield%, the incremental yield
about Rs. 146 Cr per year onabout Rs. 146 Cr per year onabout Rs. 146 Cr per year on
opportunities in bankingopportunities in bankingopportunities in banking
network. The bank hasnetwork. The bank hasnetwork. The bank has
equivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the end
Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9
dividend yield provides with a
Price to book value of 0.9
dividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with a
at 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PE
ConcernsConcernsConcerns
Change in political environmentChange in political environmentChange in political environmentChange in political environment
Instable geopolitical uncertainty in the J&K State would hamperInstable geopolitical uncertainty in the J&K State would hamperInstable geopolitical uncertainty in the J&K State would hamper
sentiment.sentiment.sentiment.
Rupee depreciationRupee depreciationRupee depreciationRupee depreciation
The rupee has depreciated about 25 % this year and touchedThe rupee has depreciated about 25 % this year and touchedThe rupee has depreciated about 25 % this year and touched
lower rupee value is the major concern for Indian economiclower rupee value is the major concern for Indian economiclower rupee value is the major concern for Indian economic
adverse impact on Indian banking sector.adverse impact on Indian banking sector.adverse impact on Indian banking sector.adverse impact on Indian banking sector.
Higher inflation rateHigher inflation rateHigher inflation rate
Higher inflation rate is another major concern in India. Bank lendingHigher inflation rate is another major concern in India. Bank lendingHigher inflation rate is another major concern in India. Bank lending
an inverse relation, observing the past trend it was absolutelyan inverse relation, observing the past trend it was absolutelyan inverse relation, observing the past trend it was absolutely
inflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rateinflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rateinflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rateinflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rate
Negative investor sentimentNegative investor sentimentNegative investor sentiment
Higher inflation rate, unexpected rupee depreciation, lowerHigher inflation rate, unexpected rupee depreciation, lowerHigher inflation rate, unexpected rupee depreciation, lower
uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &
Low GDP growth or below expectationLow GDP growth or below expectationLow GDP growth or below expectation
For the current fiscal, India is targeting 4 to 5 percent GDP growthFor the current fiscal, India is targeting 4 to 5 percent GDP growthFor the current fiscal, India is targeting 4 to 5 percent GDP growth
negatively impact on Indian banking sector.negatively impact on Indian banking sector.negatively impact on Indian banking sector.negatively impact on Indian banking sector.
hamper the overall businesshamper the overall businesshamper the overall business
touched a record low of 68.80.touched a record low of 68.80.touched a record low of 68.80.
economic growth, along with aneconomic growth, along with aneconomic growth, along with an
lending and inflation havelending and inflation havelending and inflation have
absolutely clear that once theabsolutely clear that once theabsolutely clear that once the
rate.rate.rate.rate.
lower capital expenditure andlower capital expenditure andlower capital expenditure and
& DII) sentiment.& DII) sentiment.& DII) sentiment.& DII) sentiment.
growth. Lower in GDP maygrowth. Lower in GDP maygrowth. Lower in GDP may
Company backgroundCompany backgroundCompany background
The Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in JammuThe Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in JammuThe Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in JammuThe Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in Jammu
specialized bank in the rest of the country. It is also thespecialized bank in the rest of the country. It is also thespecialized bank in the rest of the country. It is also the
designated as RBI’s agent for banking business, and carries outdesignated as RBI’s agent for banking business, and carries outdesignated as RBI’s agent for banking business, and carries out
the Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDTthe Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDTthe Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDTthe Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDT
two-legged business model whereby it seeks to increase lendingtwo-legged business model whereby it seeks to increase lendingtwo-legged business model whereby it seeks to increase lending
results in higher margins despite modest volumes, and at theresults in higher margins despite modest volumes, and at theresults in higher margins despite modest volumes, and at the
capture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to buildcapture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to buildcapture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to buildcapture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to build
margins.margins.margins.
Share holding patternShare holding patternShare holding pattern
Exhibit 01 : Change in holding by No. of sharesExhibit 01 : Change in holding by No. of sharesExhibit 01 : Change in holding by No. of shares
Y/E March 31 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13Y/E March 31 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13Y/E March 31 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13
(A) Promoter & Group 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2%(A) Promoter & Group 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2%(A) Promoter & Group 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2%
Chief Secretary, Gov of J & K 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% 50.2%Chief Secretary, Gov of J & K 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% 50.2%Chief Secretary, Gov of J & K 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% 50.2%
Secretary Fin Dept, Gov, of J & K 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Secretary Fin Dept, Gov, of J & K 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
(B) Public Shareholding 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8%(B) Public Shareholding 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8%(B) Public Shareholding 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8%
(1) Institutions 29.5% 28.7% 29.2% 29.4%(1) Institutions 29.5% 28.7% 29.2% 29.4%(1) Institutions 29.5% 28.7% 29.2% 29.4%
Mutual Funds / UTI 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4%Mutual Funds / UTI 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4%Mutual Funds / UTI 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Financial Institutions / Banks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Financial Institutions / Banks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Financial Institutions / Banks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Insurance Companies 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%Insurance Companies 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%Insurance Companies 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Foreign Institutional Investors 26.5% 24.8% 24.3% 24.5%Foreign Institutional Investors 26.5% 24.8% 24.3% 24.5%Foreign Institutional Investors 26.5% 24.8% 24.3% 24.5%
(2) Non-Institutions 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4%(2) Non-Institutions 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4%(2) Non-Institutions 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4%
(3) Individuals 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 11.4%(3) Individuals 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 11.4%(3) Individuals 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 11.4%
Any Others (Specify) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%Any Others (Specify) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%Any Others (Specify) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Total share holding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Total share holding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Total share holding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Private sector bank, despite government’s majority holdingPrivate sector bank, despite government’s majority holdingPrivate sector bank, despite government’s majority holding
J&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of governmentJ&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of governmentJ&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of governmentJ&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of government
banks. Out of the total promoter holding, 94% of shares are heldbanks. Out of the total promoter holding, 94% of shares are heldbanks. Out of the total promoter holding, 94% of shares are held
government of J&K and balance 6% is held in strong handsgovernment of J&K and balance 6% is held in strong handsgovernment of J&K and balance 6% is held in strong hands
department of government of J&K.department of government of J&K.department of government of J&K.department of government of J&K.
Jammu & Kashmir and as aJammu & Kashmir and as aJammu & Kashmir and as aJammu & Kashmir and as a
only private sector bankonly private sector bankonly private sector bank
out the banking business ofout the banking business ofout the banking business of
CBDT. J&K Bank follows aCBDT. J&K Bank follows aCBDT. J&K Bank follows aCBDT. J&K Bank follows a
lending in its home state whichlending in its home state whichlending in its home state which
the same time, seeks tothe same time, seeks tothe same time, seeks to
build volumes and improvebuild volumes and improvebuild volumes and improvebuild volumes and improve
Q4FY13 Q1FY14 % QOQ % SPLY Share Holding Pattern Q1FY14Q4FY13 Q1FY14 % QOQ % SPLY Share Holding Pattern Q1FY14Q4FY13 Q1FY14 % QOQ % SPLY Share Holding Pattern Q1FY14
53.2% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0%53.2% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0%53.2% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0%
50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0%50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0%50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% Promoter3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Promoter
46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17%46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0%
29.4% 29.7% 0.9% 0.7%
17%
29.4% 29.7% 0.9% 0.7%29.4% 29.7% 0.9% 0.7%
4.4% 4.5% 1.0% 78.7% 5%
FII
4.4% 4.5% 1.0% 78.7% 5%
FII
4.4% 4.5% 1.0% 78.7%
0.0% 0.0% -15.7% 0.0%
5%
0.0% 0.0% -15.7% 0.0% 53%
0.0% 0.0% -15.7% 0.0%
0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
53%
DII0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
53%
DII0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
24.5% 24.8% 0.9% -6.7% 25%
DII
24.5% 24.8% 0.9% -6.7% 25%24.5% 24.8% 0.9% -6.7%
5.4% 5.0% -6.2% -17.4%
25%
5.4% 5.0% -6.2% -17.4% Non Institutions5.4% 5.0% -6.2% -17.4%
11.4% 11.4% 0.3% 6.3%
Non Institutions
11.4% 11.4% 0.3% 6.3%11.4% 11.4% 0.3% 6.3%
0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 33.4%0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 33.4%0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 33.4%
100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
holding in private sectorholding in private sectorholding in private sectorholding in private sector
held by the chief secretaryheld by the chief secretaryheld by the chief secretary
hands of secretary financehands of secretary financehands of secretary finance
Investment rationaleInvestment rationaleInvestment rationale
Healthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continue
Loan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last five
deposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, overdeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, overdeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over
FY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectively
FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongFY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongFY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity along
infrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expect
for J&K in the near future.for J&K in the near future.for J&K in the near future.for J&K in the near future.
Exhibit 02 : Growth in depositsExhibit 02 : Growth in depositsExhibit 02 : Growth in deposits
66605
30%80000
66605
26%
30%80000
56445
66605
26%
47432
56445
26%
60000 47432
56445
21%
19% 20%
60000
39200
47432
19%
21%
19% 18%
20%
33077
3920019% 19% 18%
40000 3307740000
10%
40000
10%
20000
10%
2000020000
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Advances Growth %Advances Growth %Advances Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
J&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&KJ&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&KJ&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&KJ&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&K
to deposits and 39% to loan book respectively. The managementto deposits and 39% to loan book respectively. The managementto deposits and 39% to loan book respectively. The management
confident to maintain their market share in J&K state for the currentconfident to maintain their market share in J&K state for the currentconfident to maintain their market share in J&K state for the current
DepositsDepositsDeposits
Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYY/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYY/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOY
Within J&K 34920 40867 39681 -3% 14% 35308 40867 16%Within J&K 34920 40867 39681 -3% 14% 35308 40867 16%Within J&K 34920 40867 39681 -3% 14% 35308 40867 16%
Rest of India 18197 23354 18920 -19% 4% 13803 23354 69%Rest of India 18197 23354 18920 -19% 4% 13803 23354 69%Rest of India 18197 23354 18920 -19% 4% 13803 23354 69%
Whole Bank 53117 64221 58601 -9% 10% 49111 64221 31%Whole Bank 53117 64221 58601 -9% 10% 49111 64221 31%Whole Bank 53117 64221 58601 -9% 10% 49111 64221 31%
Within J&K 66% 64% 68% - - 72% 64%Within J&K 66% 64% 68% - - 72% 64%Within J&K 66% 64% 68% - - 72% 64%
Rest of India 34% 36% 32% - - 28% 36%Rest of India 34% 36% 32% - - 28% 36%Rest of India 34% 36% 32% - - 28% 36%
five years (loan book andfive years (loan book andfive years (loan book and
over the period of FY09A toover the period of FY09A toover the period of FY09A to
respectively over FY13A torespectively over FY13A torespectively over FY13A torespectively over FY13A to
along with the focus onalong with the focus onalong with the focus on
an increase in the growthan increase in the growthan increase in the growth
Exhibit 03 : Growth in advancesExhibit 03 : Growth in advancesExhibit 03 : Growth in advances
66605
30%80000
66605
26%
30%80000
56445
66605
26%
47432
56445
26%
60000 47432
56445
21%
19% 20%
60000
39200
47432
19%
21%
19% 18%
20%
33077
3920019% 19% 18%
40000 3307740000
10%
40000
10%
20000
10%
2000020000
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Advances Growth %Advances Growth %Advances Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
state would support 64%state would support 64%state would support 64%state would support 64%
management of J&K bank is prettymanagement of J&K bank is prettymanagement of J&K bank is pretty
current fiscal.current fiscal.current fiscal.
Gross AdvancesGross AdvancesGross Advances
YOY Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYYOY Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYYOY Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOY
16% Within J&K 13525 15839 16940 7% 25% 12574 15839 26%16% Within J&K 13525 15839 16940 7% 25% 12574 15839 26%16% Within J&K 13525 15839 16940 7% 25% 12574 15839 26%
69% Rest of India 20544 24293 23294 -4% 13% 20556 24293 18%69% Rest of India 20544 24293 23294 -4% 13% 20556 24293 18%69% Rest of India 20544 24293 23294 -4% 13% 20556 24293 18%
31% Whole Bank 34069 40132 40234 0% 18% 33130 40132 21%31% Whole Bank 34069 40132 40234 0% 18% 33130 40132 21%31% Whole Bank 34069 40132 40234 0% 18% 33130 40132 21%
- Within J&K 40% 39% 42% - - 38% 39% -- Within J&K 40% 39% 42% - - 38% 39% -- Within J&K 40% 39% 42% - - 38% 39% -
- Rest of India 60% 61% 58% - - 62% 61% -- Rest of India 60% 61% 58% - - 62% 61% -- Rest of India 60% 61% 58% - - 62% 61% -
Strong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominions
J&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K . ItJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K . ItJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K . It
of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the centralof the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the centralof the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the central
leadership in the state with a network of 455 branches whichleadership in the state with a network of 455 branches whichleadership in the state with a network of 455 branches which
branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region withbranches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region withbranches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region withbranches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region with
total advances and 65% market share in total deposits in the statetotal advances and 65% market share in total deposits in the statetotal advances and 65% market share in total deposits in the state
Exhibit 04: Branches Total – J&K StateExhibit 04: Branches Total – J&K State
100%2000 100%2000
82% 85% 87% 87%
100%2000
82% 85% 87% 87%
80%
1500
85769%
82% 85% 80%
1500
715
85769%
60%
1500
715
69%
60%
579
715 60%
1000
380
496
579
40%
1000
380
496 40%
985
380
500
548 603 685 821 985 20%
500
548 603 685 821 985 20%
548 603 685
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Total Branches J&K Branches J&K Branches % to toatlTotal Branches J&K Branches J&K Branches % to toatlTotal Branches J&K Branches J&K Branches % to toatl
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Massive expansion in networkMassive expansion in networkMassive expansion in network
To improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the more
business J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their network
impressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalent
of FY15.of FY15.of FY15.
Exhibit 06: Expansion plan in Branches & ATMExhibit 06: Expansion plan in Branches & ATMExhibit 06: Expansion plan in Branches & ATM
50%2000 50%2000 50%2000
41% 40%
1500
837
41% 40%
1500
837
30%
1500
698
837
30%
613
698
25%
30%
1000
508
613
20% 20%
25%
21% 20% 20%
1000
246 288 361
508 20% 20%
17%
21% 20% 20%
985
246 288 361
14%
20% 20%
17%
21%
14%
20% 20%
500
603 685 821 985
246
10%
14%
10%
14%
10%
500
530 536 548 603 685 821 98510%10% 10%
500
530 536 548 603 685
1% 1% 2% 0%0 1% 1% 2% 0%0 1% 1% 0%0
FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Branches ATM Growth % Growth %Branches ATM Growth % Growth %Branches ATM Growth % Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
dominionsdominionsdominionsdominions
It has right to act of behalfIt has right to act of behalfIt has right to act of behalf
central government. It has thecentral government. It has thecentral government. It has the
which comprises 80% of totalwhich comprises 80% of totalwhich comprises 80% of total
with 70% market share inwith 70% market share inwith 70% market share inwith 70% market share in
state.state.state.
Exhibit 05: ATM Total – J&K StateExhibit 05: ATM Total – J&K State
100%2000
90% 90%
100%2000
89% 90% 90%
100%2000
89% 90% 90%
80%
1500
68%
80%
1500
75461%
68%
60%
1500
628
75461%
68%
60%
1000
544
628
75461% 60%
1000
544
628
40%
1000
345
544 40%
837220
345
20%
500
508 613 698 837220 20%
500
361 508 613 698 837220 20%
361 508 613
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Total ATM J&K ATM J&K ATM % to toatl
FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Total ATM J&K ATM J&K ATM % to toatlTotal ATM J&K ATM J&K ATM % to toatl
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
opportunities in bankingopportunities in bankingopportunities in banking
network. The bank hasnetwork. The bank hasnetwork. The bank has
equivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the end
Exhibit 07: Branches in Metro, Urban, Semi – Urban & RuralExhibit 07: Branches in Metro, Urban, Semi – Urban & RuralExhibit 07: Branches in Metro, Urban, Semi – Urban & Rural
120012001200
10001000
453800 453800
378
453
600
332
378600
197204 206 223 273 332
400
600
164
197204 206 223 273 332
400
119 121 118 123 136
164
197204 206 223400
222 266
119 121 118 123 136
164
200
166 168 168 168 178 222 266
119 121 118 123
200
41 41 39 39 39 57 69
166 168 168 168 178 222
0 41 41 39 39 39 57 6900
FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E
Metro Urban Semi-Urban RuralMetro Urban Semi-Urban Rural
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Focus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIM
With strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towards
support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6.20% withinsupport margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6.20% withinsupport margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6.20% within
outside the state. We expected NIM to sustain at current levelsoutside the state. We expected NIM to sustain at current levelsoutside the state. We expected NIM to sustain at current levels
the range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growththe range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growththe range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growththe range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growth
portfolio) is expected to grow at a faster pace. J&K Bank hasportfolio) is expected to grow at a faster pace. J&K Bank hasportfolio) is expected to grow at a faster pace. J&K Bank has
FY13, which we expect to improve to 63% in FY14E andFY13, which we expect to improve to 63% in FY14E andFY13, which we expect to improve to 63% in FY14E and
management has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpacemanagement has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpacemanagement has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpacemanagement has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpace
We have factored in 21% credit growth and 16.5% deposit growthWe have factored in 21% credit growth and 16.5% deposit growthWe have factored in 21% credit growth and 16.5% deposit growth
Exhibit 08:Loan Book - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 08:Loan Book - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 08:Loan Book - J&K stats and Rest of India
30%80000
26%
30%80000
26% 25%
23%
26%
23% 23%
25%
60000 23% 23% 23%
21% 20%
60000
38620
21%
18% 18%
20%
33298
3862018% 18%
16% 16% 15%
20%
40000
28701
33298
13%
16% 16% 15%40000
24293
28701
33298
13%
10%
15%40000
20556
24293
2870113%
10%
20000
29135
20556
24293 10%
20000
19536 24113 29135
20556
5%
20000
12574 15839 19536 24113 29135 5%
12574 15839 19536
0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 10:NIM - J&K stateExhibit 10:NIM - J&K stateExhibit 10:NIM - J&K state
FY15E, 6.2% FY16E, 6.2%FY15E, 6.2% FY16E, 6.2%
FY13A, 6.2%
FY15E, 6.2% FY16E, 6.2%
FY13A, 6.2%FY13A, 6.2%
FY14E, 6.1%FY14E, 6.1%FY14E, 6.1%
FY12A, 6.0%FY12A, 6.0%FY12A, 6.0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 60 1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
towards J&K state wouldtowards J&K state wouldtowards J&K state would
within the state and 2.5%within the state and 2.5%within the state and 2.5%
levels of 4%+ as its CD ratio inlevels of 4%+ as its CD ratio inlevels of 4%+ as its CD ratio in
growth with J&K (higher yieldinggrowth with J&K (higher yieldinggrowth with J&K (higher yieldinggrowth with J&K (higher yielding
has a CD ratio of 61% as onhas a CD ratio of 61% as onhas a CD ratio of 61% as on
64% in FY15E. Even the64% in FY15E. Even the64% in FY15E. Even the
deposit growth (17-18%).deposit growth (17-18%).deposit growth (17-18%).deposit growth (17-18%).
growth in FY14E.growth in FY14E.growth in FY14E.
Exhibit 09: Deposits - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 09: Deposits - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 09: Deposits - J&K stats and Rest of India
80%120000
69%
80%120000
69%100000 69%
60%
100000
41097
60%
80000
34865
4109780000
28430
34865
41097
40%60000
80000
23354
28430
34865
40%60000
13803
23354
28430 40%
40000
60000
59139
13803
23354
24% 22% 23% 20%
40000
40867 46387 52297 59139
13803
16% 14%
24% 22% 23%
18% 20%
20000
40000
35308 40867 46387 52297 59139
12% 16% 14% 13% 13%
22% 23%
18% 20%
20000 35308 40867 4638712% 16% 14% 13% 13%20000
0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 11:NIM - Rest of IndiaExhibit 11:NIM - Rest of IndiaExhibit 11:NIM - Rest of India
FY15E, 2.6%FY15E, 2.6%
FY16E, 2.6%
FY15E, 2.6%
FY16E, 2.6%FY16E, 2.6%
FY13A, 2.6%FY13A, 2.6%
FY12A, 2.5% FY14E, 2.5%FY12A, 2.5% FY14E, 2.5%FY12A, 2.5% FY14E, 2.5%
0 1 2 3 4 5 60 1 2 3 4 5 60 1 2 3 4 5 6
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Huge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural Lending
Agriculture involves about 70% of the population and contributesAgriculture involves about 70% of the population and contributesAgriculture involves about 70% of the population and contributes
only 16 % of J&K Bank’s lending is to this sector. Horticulturalonly 16 % of J&K Bank’s lending is to this sector. Horticulturalonly 16 % of J&K Bank’s lending is to this sector. Horticultural
about 45 % to Agricultural production and involves 30 lac peopleabout 45 % to Agricultural production and involves 30 lac peopleabout 45 % to Agricultural production and involves 30 lac people
% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces
apple output and controls 49 % of land dedicated to apple cultivationapple output and controls 49 % of land dedicated to apple cultivationapple output and controls 49 % of land dedicated to apple cultivation
Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State,Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State,Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State,
extended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remaining
Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State,
extended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remainingextended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remainingextended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remaining
credit of about Rs.7000 Cr more. In J&K 75 % of Apple growerscredit of about Rs.7000 Cr more. In J&K 75 % of Apple growerscredit of about Rs.7000 Cr more. In J&K 75 % of Apple growers
traders and are unaware that its effective interest cost thattraders and are unaware that its effective interest cost thattraders and are unaware that its effective interest cost that
54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.
Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 Cr, whichCurrent shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 Cr, whichCurrent shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 Cr, which
RIDF/MSME Bonds/RHF @ 3 to 5 % for 3-7 years. Interest SubventionRIDF/MSME Bonds/RHF @ 3 to 5 % for 3-7 years. Interest SubventionRIDF/MSME Bonds/RHF @ 3 to 5 % for 3-7 years. Interest Subvention
to J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Publicto J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Publicto J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Publicto J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Public
of pricing of agricultural loans and improve the flow of creditof pricing of agricultural loans and improve the flow of creditof pricing of agricultural loans and improve the flow of credit
particularly in J&K State. Assuming yield on incremental Agriculturalparticularly in J&K State. Assuming yield on incremental Agriculturalparticularly in J&K State. Assuming yield on incremental Agricultural
Rate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) wouldRate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) wouldRate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) wouldRate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) would
revenue of about Rs. 146 Cr per year on lending Rs.revenue of about Rs. 146 Cr per year on lending Rs.revenue of about Rs. 146 Cr per year on lending Rs.
sector, increasing agricultural advances which will improvesector, increasing agricultural advances which will improvesector, increasing agricultural advances which will improve
helping in financial inclusion, widening customer base andhelping in financial inclusion, widening customer base andhelping in financial inclusion, widening customer base andhelping in financial inclusion, widening customer base and
remote rural areas.remote rural areas.remote rural areas.
Exhibit 12: Apple Grower in J&K StateExhibit 12: Apple Grower in J&K StateExhibit 12: Apple Grower in J&K State
Total GrowerTotal GrowerTotal Grower
, 283000, 283000, 283000
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
contributes 23 % to the GDP, yetcontributes 23 % to the GDP, yetcontributes 23 % to the GDP, yet
Horticultural production contributesHorticultural production contributesHorticultural production contributes
people. Apples account for 86people. Apples account for 86people. Apples account for 86
produces 77 % of India’s totalproduces 77 % of India’s totalproduces 77 % of India’s totalproduces 77 % of India’s total
cultivation.cultivation.cultivation.
State, Bank’s finance has beenState, Bank’s finance has beenState, Bank’s finance has been
remaining growers will generate
State, Bank’s finance has been
remaining growers will generateremaining growers will generateremaining growers will generate
growers get their financing fromgrowers get their financing fromgrowers get their financing from
that works out to 36% tothat works out to 36% tothat works out to 36% to
which has to be invested inwhich has to be invested inwhich has to be invested in
Subvention Scheme extendedSubvention Scheme extendedSubvention Scheme extended
Public Sector Banks in termsPublic Sector Banks in termsPublic Sector Banks in termsPublic Sector Banks in terms
credit to agricultural sectorcredit to agricultural sectorcredit to agricultural sector
Agricultural Advances at BaseAgricultural Advances at BaseAgricultural Advances at Base
would generate an incrementalwould generate an incrementalwould generate an incrementalwould generate an incremental
2335 Cr to agricultural2335 Cr to agricultural2335 Cr to agricultural
core advances portfoliocore advances portfoliocore advances portfolio
and enhancing outreach inand enhancing outreach inand enhancing outreach inand enhancing outreach in
Potential ForPotential ForPotential For
Lending, 265700Lending, 265700Lending, 265700
J&K'sJ&K's
Borrower,17300Borrower,17300Borrower,17300
Cheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yield
At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price
Cheap Valuation and High Dividend yield
At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price
times. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividend
comfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading at
for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.
Exhibit 13: P/E (x) & P/BV (x)Exhibit 13: P/E (x) & P/BV (x)
1.51.2 1.5
1.1 1.2 1.5
1.1 1.2
0.90.9 1.10.9 1.1
0.9
7.3 7.8 0.9
0.86.8 7.3 7.8
0.8
0.66.8 7.3
5.3
0.8
0.6
5.3
5.1 4.3
0.6
5.3
5.1 4.34.3
3.53.5
2.92.9
FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
P/E (X) P/BV (X)P/E (X) P/BV (X)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9
dividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with a
at 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PE
Exhibit 14: DPS & Dividend yieldExhibit 14: DPS & Dividend yield
88 10%100 88 10%100
72
88 10%100
728% 8% 8%80
59
728% 8% 8%80
50
59
7% 6%60 50
5%
7% 6%60
33
50
5% 5%
5%
6%60
26
334% 4%
5% 5%
5%
4%40
17
22 26
334% 4%
5% 4%40
17
22 26
2%20
17
2%20 2%20
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
DPS Dividend yield (%)DPS Dividend yield (%)DPS Dividend yield (%)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Asset qualityAsset qualityAsset qualityAsset quality
GNPA is slightly higher during FY13….and expecting to be sameGNPA is slightly higher during FY13….and expecting to be sameGNPA is slightly higher during FY13….and expecting to be same
On the YOY basis J&K bank posted a slightly higher GNPA (Rs 39200On the YOY basis J&K bank posted a slightly higher GNPA (Rs 39200On the YOY basis J&K bank posted a slightly higher GNPA (Rs 39200
compared to previous year of FY12 (Rs 33077, 1.56 % to advance)compared to previous year of FY12 (Rs 33077, 1.56 % to advance)compared to previous year of FY12 (Rs 33077, 1.56 % to advance)
from management of J&K bank and our financial model we stronglyfrom management of J&K bank and our financial model we stronglyfrom management of J&K bank and our financial model we stronglyfrom management of J&K bank and our financial model we strongly
Bank will maintain there GNPA in the range of 1.65% to 1.70% forBank will maintain there GNPA in the range of 1.65% to 1.70% forBank will maintain there GNPA in the range of 1.65% to 1.70% for
Well position PCR (Provision coverage ration)Well position PCR (Provision coverage ration)Well position PCR (Provision coverage ration)
The bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past threeThe bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past threeThe bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past threeThe bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past three
from management we expect that bank will maintain the PCR atfrom management we expect that bank will maintain the PCR atfrom management we expect that bank will maintain the PCR at
Exhibit 15: Gross NPAExhibit 15: Gross NPAExhibit 15: Gross NPA
11041104 1.70%1200
958
1104
1.67% 1.68% 1.67%
1.70%1200
9581.67% 1.68% 1.67%
1.65%1000
809
9581.67% 1.68% 1.67%
1.65%1000
809
1.62%
1.65%
800
1000
644 1.62%
1.60%
800
517
644 1.62%
1.60%
800
517
1.60%
600 517
1.55%
600
1.54% 1.55%
400 1.54%400
1.50%200 1.50%200
1.45%0
200
1.45%0 1.45%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
GNPA (Rs In Cr) GNPA (%)GNPA (Rs In Cr) GNPA (%)GNPA (Rs In Cr) GNPA (%)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 17: NPA - Substandard, Doubtful & LossExhibit 17: NPA - Substandard, Doubtful & LossExhibit 17: NPA - Substandard, Doubtful & Loss
12001200
77
1200
77
1000
72
77
1000
65
72
800
640
65800
556
640
57
65
600
469
556
640
57600
378
469
556
93
57
400
600
378
46993
400
247
378400
275 331 386
247
200
176 209 275 331 386200
176 209 275 331
00
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Substandard Doubtful LossSubstandard Doubtful Loss
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
same for FY14Esame for FY14Esame for FY14E
39200, 1.64% to advance)39200, 1.64% to advance)39200, 1.64% to advance)
advance). As per the guidanceadvance). As per the guidanceadvance). As per the guidance
strongly expect that, the J&Kstrongly expect that, the J&Kstrongly expect that, the J&Kstrongly expect that, the J&K
for the fiscal of FY14.for the fiscal of FY14.for the fiscal of FY14.
year. As per the guidanceyear. As per the guidanceyear. As per the guidanceyear. As per the guidance
at 91% for FY14E.at 91% for FY14E.at 91% for FY14E.
Exhibit 16: Net NPAExhibit 16: Net NPAExhibit 16: Net NPA
9494 0.15%100
81
94 0.15%100
81
0.15%
69
0.15%
0.15%
80 69 0.15%
80
49
55 0.14% 0.14% 0.14%
0.15%
60 49
55 0.14% 0.14% 0.14%60 49 0.14% 0.14%
0.14%
60
0.14%
0.14%
40 0.14%40
0.14%
40
0.14%
20
0.14%
20
0.13%0 0.13%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
NNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (%)NNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (%)NNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (%)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 18: PCRExhibit 18: PCRExhibit 18: PCR
91% 92% 92% 92%
92%1500
1150
91% 92% 92% 92%
92%1500
1150
105290%
91% 92% 92% 92%
90%966
1150
884
105290%
90% 90%
805
966
884
105290% 90%
1000
644
805737
884
88%
1000
519 517
644
805
589
737 88%
462 519 517
644
398 466 467
589
86% 86%462 519 517
398 466 46786% 86%
500
46239886% 86%
500
84%
500
84%
82%0 82%0 82%0
FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
GNPA Provisions on BS Provisions coverage %GNPA Provisions on BS Provisions coverage %GNPA Provisions on BS Provisions coverage %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Slippages on a marginal increaseSlippages on a marginal increaseSlippages on a marginal increase
Slippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoy
Slippages on a marginal increase
Slippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoySlippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoySlippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoy
bank posted the slippage ratio of 1.16 for the period of FY13 againstbank posted the slippage ratio of 1.16 for the period of FY13 againstbank posted the slippage ratio of 1.16 for the period of FY13 against
the 0.95 of FY12. Even for the Q1FY14 slippage is 0.88 whichthe 0.95 of FY12. Even for the Q1FY14 slippage is 0.88 whichthe 0.95 of FY12. Even for the Q1FY14 slippage is 0.88 which
slightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippageslightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippageslightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippageslightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippage
on for FY14E and expecting that it will gradually reduce in FY15on for FY14E and expecting that it will gradually reduce in FY15on for FY14E and expecting that it will gradually reduce in FY15
FY16EFY16EFY16E
Consistency in CASAConsistency in CASAConsistency in CASAConsistency in CASA
CASA ratio of J&K Bank is 40% against the industry average ofCASA ratio of J&K Bank is 40% against the industry average ofCASA ratio of J&K Bank is 40% against the industry average of
Healthy CASA is one of the advantage of J&K bank. We stronglyHealthy CASA is one of the advantage of J&K bank. We stronglyHealthy CASA is one of the advantage of J&K bank. We strongly
expect that bank will maintain this position in the coming twoexpect that bank will maintain this position in the coming twoexpect that bank will maintain this position in the coming twoexpect that bank will maintain this position in the coming two
three years.three years.three years.
Restructure assets % to total advanceRestructure assets % to total advanceRestructure assets % to total advance
As restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginalAs restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginalAs restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginalAs restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginal
decreases in restructure assets in advance for FY13. On yoy basisdecreases in restructure assets in advance for FY13. On yoy basisdecreases in restructure assets in advance for FY13. On yoy basis
restructure assets in advance for FY 13 is 1490 Cr (3.84%) againstrestructure assets in advance for FY 13 is 1490 Cr (3.84%) againstrestructure assets in advance for FY 13 is 1490 Cr (3.84%) against
1366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 13671366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 13671366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 1367
(3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688
1366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 1367
(3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688(3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688(3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688
(5.08%).(5.08%).(5.08%).
Exhibit 19 : SlippageExhibit 19 : Slippage
yoy basis
Exhibit 19 : Slippage
yoy basisyoy basisyoy basis
against 1.50%80000
against
599
1.50%80000
against
which is
599
1.16% 1.15%60000which is 564
599
1.16% 1.15%
1.00% 1.00%
60000which is
slippage ratio 545
564
0.95%
1.16% 1.15%
1.00%
0.90%
1.00%
60000
slippage ratio 455
545
564
0.95% 1.00%
0.90%
1.00%
40000slippage ratio
66605315
455
545 0.90%
40000slippage ratio
15E and 56445
66605315
455
0.50%
40000
15E and
39200 47432
56445
66605315
0.50%
20000
15E and
33077 39200 47432
56445 0.50%
20000 33077 3920020000
0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Standard assets NPA Addition Slippage ratioStandard assets NPA Addition Slippage ratio
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 20 : CASAExhibit 20 : CASA
of 34%.
Exhibit 20 : CASA
of 34%.of 34%.
strongly 41%150000strongly 41%150000strongly
two to
41%
41%
41%150000
two to 40094
41%
41%two to
34865
40094
40%
41%
100000
two to
29927
3486540% 40% 40% 40%100000
25191
29927
3486540% 40% 40% 40%100000
21715
25191
29927
40%
21715
25191
39%
40%
87162 100236
21715 39%
39%50000
53347 64221 74817 87162 100236 39%50000
53347 64221 74817 87162
39%53347 64221 39%
38%0 38%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
total Deposits Demand + saving CASAtotal Deposits Demand + saving CASA
Source: Perception Research
total Deposits Demand + saving CASA
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 21 : Movement in Restructured AssetsExhibit 21 : Movement in Restructured AssetsExhibit 21 : Movement in Restructured Assets
marginalmarginal 6.00%50000marginal
5.55%
6.00%50000marginal
basis the 5.08%
5.55%
6.00%50000
basis the 1490 1490 13675.08%
5.55%
40000basis the
against the 1366 1688 1367 1978
1490 1490 1367
4.13%
5.08%
3.99% 4.00%
40000
against the 1366 1688 1367 19784.13% 3.99% 3.80% 3.80%
3.48%
4.00%
30000against the
1367 Cr
1366 1688 13674.13% 3.99% 3.80% 3.80%
3.48%
4.00%
30000
1367 Cr
3.48%
20000
30000
1367 Cr
1688 Cr 33077 33225 34272 35657 39200 39200 39282
2.00%
20000
1367 Cr
1688 Cr 33077 33225 34272 35657 39200 39200 39282
2.00%
20000
1688 Cr 33077 33225 34272 35657 2.00%
10000
1688 Cr 10000
0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0
FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 FY13 Q1FY14FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 FY13 Q1FY14FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 FY13 Q1FY14
Advances Restructured Assets RA % to total advanceAdvances Restructured Assets RA % to total advance
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Capital adequacyCapital adequacyCapital adequacy
The bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratio
Capital adequacy
The bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratioThe bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratioThe bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratio
10.44% and Tier 2 at 1.90% by the end of FY13. The risk weighted10.44% and Tier 2 at 1.90% by the end of FY13. The risk weighted10.44% and Tier 2 at 1.90% by the end of FY13. The risk weighted
stood at 46597 Cr, 56% to total assets.stood at 46597 Cr, 56% to total assets.stood at 46597 Cr, 56% to total assets.
Exhibit 22 : Tier I & II & Capital AdequacyExhibit 22 : Tier I & II & Capital Adequacy
13.50%15.00%
11.88% 11.72% 11.75%
13.50%15.00%
10.43% 10.44%
11.88% 11.72% 11.75%
13.11%
13.50%15.00%
10.43% 10.44%
11.88% 11.72% 11.75%
13.11% 13.00%
10.43% 10.44% 13.11% 13.00%
10.00% 12.74%
12.61%
13.00%
10.00%
12.53%
12.74%
12.61%12.50%
10.00%
12.53%
12.34%
12.61%12.50%12.53%
12.34%
12.50%
5.00%
2.10% 1.90%
12.34%
12.00%
5.00%
2.10% 1.90% 1.23% 1.02% 0.86%
12.00%
5.00%
1.90% 1.23% 1.02% 0.86%
12.00%
11.50%0.00% 11.50%0.00% 11.50%0.00%
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Tier 1 Tier 2 Capital adequacyTier 1 Tier 2 Capital adequacy
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion
The bank’s asset quality remained stable sequentially, with a marginalThe bank’s asset quality remained stable sequentially, with a marginalThe bank’s asset quality remained stable sequentially, with a marginal
gross NPA ratio to 1.62% and 1bp decline in the net NPA ratiogross NPA ratio to 1.62% and 1bp decline in the net NPA ratiogross NPA ratio to 1.62% and 1bp decline in the net NPA ratio
levels were slightly higher at 140cr (for FY13 annualized slippagelevels were slightly higher at 140cr (for FY13 annualized slippagelevels were slightly higher at 140cr (for FY13 annualized slippage
for FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industryfor FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industryfor FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industryfor FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industry
sequential basis (yoy) by 97bp to 91.41%.sequential basis (yoy) by 97bp to 91.41%.sequential basis (yoy) by 97bp to 91.41%.
of 12.35% with Tier 1 atof 12.35% with Tier 1 atof 12.35% with Tier 1 atof 12.35% with Tier 1 at
weighted assets for FY13 isweighted assets for FY13 isweighted assets for FY13 is
Exhibit 23 : RWA, RWA to total assetsExhibit 23 : RWA, RWA to total assets
69783 65%80000 69783 65%80000
58634
69783 65%80000
48652
58634
62%60000 46597 48652
60%
62%
60%
60000
39244
46597 48652
60% 60%
60000
39244
58%
60% 60%
40000 58%40000
55%
56% 55%
40000
55%
56% 55%
20000
55% 55%
2000020000
50%0 50%0 50%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Risk weighted assets RWA / Total assetsRisk weighted assets RWA / Total assets
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
marginal increase of 8bp inmarginal increase of 8bp inmarginal increase of 8bp in
ratio to 0.14%. The slippageratio to 0.14%. The slippageratio to 0.14%. The slippage
slippage ratio of 1.16% v/s 0.95slippage ratio of 1.16% v/s 0.95slippage ratio of 1.16% v/s 0.95
industry by FY13, improved on aindustry by FY13, improved on aindustry by FY13, improved on aindustry by FY13, improved on a
J&K State EconomyJ&K State EconomyJ&K State Economy
GDP Size and GrowthGDP Size and GrowthGDP Size and GrowthGDP Size and Growth
Economy or GDP in J&K State is accelerating and is poised forEconomy or GDP in J&K State is accelerating and is poised forEconomy or GDP in J&K State is accelerating and is poised for
Government spending and Private Investment on the rise. RecordGovernment spending and Private Investment on the rise. RecordGovernment spending and Private Investment on the rise. Record
last two years, more expected this year. Increased investmentlast two years, more expected this year. Increased investmentlast two years, more expected this year. Increased investmentlast two years, more expected this year. Increased investment
pushing up credit demand. The demand for financing private sectorpushing up credit demand. The demand for financing private sectorpushing up credit demand. The demand for financing private sector
ancillaries on the rise. Trickle down impact of all this will leadancillaries on the rise. Trickle down impact of all this will leadancillaries on the rise. Trickle down impact of all this will lead
income and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loansincome and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loansincome and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loansincome and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loans
Exhibit 24 : Sector wise contribution to GDPExhibit 24 : Sector wise contribution to GDPExhibit 24 : Sector wise contribution to GDP
5000050000
6.2240000
5.96 6.2240000
5.96 6.22
220164.8030000
18662 20344 220164.8030000
18662 20344 220164.80
2000020000
9871 9980 10600
20000
9871 9980 10600
10000
9871 9980 10600
10000
7796 8061 8154
10000
7796 8061 8154
0
7796 8061 8154
00
FY10 FY11 FY12FY10 FY11 FY12
Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary SectorPrimary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector
Source: Perception Research
Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
J&K State Credit GapJ&K State Credit GapJ&K State Credit GapJ&K State Credit Gap
J&K accounts for 0.6% of India’s GDP, for FY13 and absorbs onlyJ&K accounts for 0.6% of India’s GDP, for FY13 and absorbs onlyJ&K accounts for 0.6% of India’s GDP, for FY13 and absorbs only
credit. J&K accounts for 1% of India’s population and yet accountscredit. J&K accounts for 1% of India’s population and yet accountscredit. J&K accounts for 1% of India’s population and yet accounts
India’s personal credit. Credit in J&K needs to increase five-foldIndia’s personal credit. Credit in J&K needs to increase five-foldIndia’s personal credit. Credit in J&K needs to increase five-fold
J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.
for further growth in future.for further growth in future.for further growth in future.
Record tourist inflow duringRecord tourist inflow duringRecord tourist inflow during
investment in tourist infrastructureinvestment in tourist infrastructureinvestment in tourist infrastructureinvestment in tourist infrastructure
sector projects, SME’s andsector projects, SME’s andsector projects, SME’s and
lead to increase in per capitalead to increase in per capitalead to increase in per capita
loans.loans.loans.loans.
FY13 - J&K State’s Economy J&K StateFY13 - J&K State’s Economy J&K StateFY13 - J&K State’s Economy J&K State
Population (In Cr) 1.25Population (In Cr) 1.25Population (In Cr) 1.25
Area (in Sq Km) 2222368.00 Area (in Sq Km) 2222368.00 Area (in Sq Km) 222236
Density (Per/Sq Km) 1247.01 7.00 Density (Per/Sq Km) 124
Per Capita Income 30889
7.01 7.00
Per Capita Income 308896.00 Per Capita Income 30889
Population BPL (%) 21.63%23947
6.00
Population BPL (%) 21.63%23947 5.00 Population BPL (%) 21.63%
Literacy 68.74%
23947
4.00
5.00
Literacy 68.74%4.00 Literacy 68.74%
Unemployment Rate 4.90%
3.00
4.00
Unemployment Rate 4.90%
FY13 - Indian Economy All India
3.00
FY13 - Indian Economy All India10711 2.00
3.00
FY13 - Indian Economy All India
Population (In Cr) 121.02
10711 2.00
Population (In Cr) 121.02
1.00
2.00
Population (In Cr) 121.02
Area (in Sq Kms) 32872408970 1.00 Area (in Sq Kms) 3287240
Density (Per/Sq Km) 382
8970
0.00
1.00
Density (Per/Sq Km) 382
8970
0.00 Density (Per/Sq Km) 382
Per Capita Income 39143
0.00
Per Capita Income 39143FY13 Per Capita Income 39143
Population BPL (%) 27.50%
FY13
Population BPL (%) 27.50%
J&K GDP Growth Rate
Population BPL (%) 27.50%
Literacy 74.04%J&K GDP Growth Rate Literacy 74.04%
Unemployment Rate 9.40%
J&K GDP Growth Rate
Unemployment Rate 9.40%Unemployment Rate 9.40%
only 0.30% of total nationalonly 0.30% of total nationalonly 0.30% of total national
accounts for only 0.2% ofaccounts for only 0.2% ofaccounts for only 0.2% of
fold and Personal Credit infold and Personal Credit infold and Personal Credit in
Financials & ProjectionsFinancials & ProjectionsFinancials & Projections
Exhibit 25: Profit and Loss A/C (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 25: Profit and Loss A/C (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 25: Profit and Loss A/C (Rs In Cr)
Y/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11A
Interest IncomeInterest IncomeInterest Income
Yield on Advances 2295 2342 2630Yield on Advances 2295 2342 2630Yield on Advances 2295 2342 2630
Yield on Investments 646 705 1066Yield on Investments 646 705 1066
Yield on RBI & Inter Bank 31 11 17Yield on RBI & Inter Bank 31 11 17Yield on RBI & Inter Bank 31 11 17
Yield on Others 0 0 0Yield on Others 0 0 0Yield on Others 0 0 0
Total Interest Income 2972 3057 3713Total Interest Income 2972 3057 3713Total Interest Income 2972 3057 3713
Interest ExpenditureInterest ExpenditureInterest Expenditure
Cost of Deposits 1915 1841 2069Cost of Deposits 1915 1841 2069Cost of Deposits 1915 1841 2069
Cost of RBI - Inter-Bank Borrowings 73 83 46Cost of RBI - Inter-Bank Borrowings 73 83 46Cost of RBI - Inter-Bank Borrowings 73 83 46
Cost of Subordinate Debt - Other 0 14 54Cost of Subordinate Debt - Other 0 14 54Cost of Subordinate Debt - Other 0 14 54
Total Interest Expenditure 1988 1938 2169Total Interest Expenditure 1988 1938 2169Total Interest Expenditure 1988 1938 2169
Net Interest Income 984 1119 1544Net Interest Income 984 1119 1544Net Interest Income 984 1119 1544
Non-Interest Income 261 416 365Non-Interest Income 261 416 365Non-Interest Income 261 416 365
Total Income 1245 1536 1908Total Income 1245 1536 1908Total Income 1245 1536 1908
Salaries/Wages 279 366 524Salaries/Wages 279 366 524
Depreciation 33 37 38Depreciation 33 37 38Depreciation 33 37 38
Other operating expenses 160 174 197Other operating expenses 160 174 197Other operating expenses 160 174 197
Pre Provision Profits 774 958 1149Pre Provision Profits 774 958 1149Pre Provision Profits 774 958 1149
Loan loss provisions 56 150 130Loan loss provisions 56 150 130Loan loss provisions 56 150 130
Investment provisions 42 -39 41Investment provisions 42 -39 41Investment provisions 42 -39 41
Other provisions 44 55 44Other provisions 44 55 44Other provisions 44 55 44
Provisions 142 167 215Provisions 142 167 215Provisions 142 167 215
Net Profit before tax 632 792 934Net Profit before tax 632 792 934Net Profit before tax 632 792 934
Income tax 222 279 319Income tax 222 279 319Income tax 222 279 319
Net Profit After Tax 410 513 615Net Profit After Tax 410 513 615Net Profit After Tax 410 513 615
AppropriationsAppropriations
Transfer to Statutory Reserve 102 129 154
Appropriations
Transfer to Statutory Reserve 102 129 154Transfer to Statutory Reserve 102 129 154
Transfer to Other Reserves 212 259 314Transfer to Other Reserves 212 259 314Transfer to Other Reserves 212 259 314
Equity Dividend 82 107 126Equity Dividend 82 107 126Equity Dividend 82 107 126
Dividend Tax 14 18 21Dividend Tax 14 18 21Dividend Tax 14 18 21
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
3394 4318 5763 6830 80593394 4318 5763 6830 80593394 4318 5763 6830 8059
1403 1723 1893 2143 24261403 1723 1893 2143 2426
39 97 95 96 9739 97 95 96 9739 97 95 96 97
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
4836 6137 7751 9069 105834836 6137 7751 9069 105834836 6137 7751 9069 10583
2902 3741 4863 5666 65152902 3741 4863 5666 65152902 3741 4863 5666 6515
41 26 31 34 3641 26 31 34 3641 26 31 34 36
54 54 54 54 5454 54 54 54 5454 54 54 54 54
2997 3821 4948 5753 66052997 3821 4948 5753 66052997 3821 4948 5753 6605
1838 2316 2803 3315 39781838 2316 2803 3315 39781838 2316 2803 3315 3978
334 484 526 571 621334 484 526 571 621334 484 526 571 621
2172 2800 3329 3886 45992172 2800 3329 3886 45992172 2800 3329 3886 4599
521 652 731 818 916521 652 731 818 916
44 50 50 54 5944 50 50 54 5944 50 50 54 59
237 287 301 315 330237 287 301 315 330237 287 301 315 330
1370 1811 2247 2699 32941370 1811 2247 2699 32941370 1811 2247 2699 3294
90 158 217 260 30890 158 217 260 30890 158 217 260 308
12 15 16 19 2112 15 16 19 2112 15 16 19 21
67 111 144 187 24467 111 144 187 24467 111 144 187 244
169 284 377 466 572169 284 377 466 572169 284 377 466 572
1201 1527 1870 2233 27221201 1527 1870 2233 27221201 1527 1870 2233 2722
398 471 617 737 898398 471 617 737 898398 471 617 737 898
803 1055 1253 1496 1823803 1055 1253 1496 1823803 1055 1253 1496 1823
201 264 313 374 456201 264 313 374 456201 264 313 374 456
414 508 601 718 875414 508 601 718 875414 508 601 718 875
162 242 288 344 419162 242 288 344 419162 242 288 344 419
26 41 50 60 7326 41 50 60 7326 41 50 60 73
Exhibit 26 : Yield on AdvancesExhibit 26 : Yield on AdvancesExhibit 26 : Yield on Advances
40%10000
8059
40%10000
6830
8059
33%8000 6830
29%
33%
30%8000
5763
6830
29% 27%
30%8000
576329% 27%
30%
6000
4318 20%
6000
3394
4318
19% 18%
20%
4000
3394 19% 18%
20%
4000
10.3% 11.0% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 10%
4000
10.3% 11.0% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 10%2000
10.3% 11.0% 10%2000
0%0
2000
0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Yield on Advances Growth % Yield on Advances %Yield on Advances Growth % Yield on Advances %
Source: Perception Research
Yield on Advances Growth % Yield on Advances %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 28 : Total Interest Income & NIMExhibit 28 : Total Interest Income & NIMExhibit 28 : Total Interest Income & NIM
40%15000 40%15000
10583
9069
10583
30% 30%
7751
906930%
27% 26%
30%
10000 7751
906927% 26%10000
6137
7751 26%
20%
4836
6137
17% 17%
20%
4836 17% 17%
5000
17% 17%
10%
5000
10%
5000
3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
10%
3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
0%0
3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Interest Income Growth % NIM %Interest Income Growth % NIM %
Source: Perception Research
Interest Income Growth % NIM %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 30 : Deposits & Cost of depositedExhibit 30 : Deposits & Cost of deposited
7.0%8000
6515
7.0%8000
6515
7.0%8000
5666
6515
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
4863
56666.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%6000 4863
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%6000
3741
4863
5.8%
6.0%
2902
3741
5.8%
6.0%
4000 2902
5.4%
5.8%
5.5%
4000 2902
5.4% 5.5%5.4% 5.5%
2000 5.0%2000 5.0%
4.5%0 4.5%0 4.5%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Deposits Cost of deposits %Deposits Cost of deposits %
Source: Perception Research
Deposits Cost of deposits %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 27 : Yield on InvestmentExhibit 27 : Yield on InvestmentExhibit 27 : Yield on Investment
40%3000
2426
40%3000
2143
2426
32% 1893
214332% 30%
1723
189332% 30%
2000
1403
1723
23%
2000
1403 23%
20%
23%
20%
13% 13%
20%
1000
10%
13% 13%
10%
1000
10%
13% 13%
6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
10%
1000
10%
6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
10%
6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Yield on Investment Growth % Yield on Investment %Yield on Investment Growth % Yield on Investment %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 29 : NII & % to Interest IncomeExhibit 29 : NII & % to Interest IncomeExhibit 29 : NII & % to Interest Income
39%5000
3978
39%5000
3315
3978
4000 331538% 38%4000
2803
331538%
38% 38%
38%4000
2316
280338% 38%3000
1838
2316
38%
37%
3000
1838
2316
37%
37%
2000
1838
37%2000
36%
37%
36%
2000
36% 36%1000 36%1000
35%0 35%0 35%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Net Interest Income NII % to Interest IncomeNet Interest Income NII % to Interest Income
Source: Perception Research
Net Interest Income NII % to Interest Income
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 31 : Operating Expenses & % to total incomeExhibit 31 : Operating Expenses & % to total income
40%1500 40%1500
37% 35%
40%1500
37% 35%
32%
330
35%
32% 31%
28% 30%
59301
315
33031%
28% 30%
1000
54
59
287
301
315 28%1000
50
54
59
237
287
301
20%
50
50
54
237
287
20%
916
44
50237
500
652 731 818 916
44
10%
500
521 652 731 818 916 10%
500
521 652 731 10%
521
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Salaries Depreciation Otexpenses Op Exp % to total incomeSalaries Depreciation Otexpenses Op Exp % to total income
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 32 : ProvisionsExhibit 32 : ProvisionsExhibit 32 : Provisions
800800
600600
244
400 187
244
400
19
21144
187400
16
19
21
111
144
200
260 30815
16
19
67
111200
158 217 260 308
12
15
16
67
111200
90 158 217 260 308
12
1567
0 90 15812
00
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Loan loss provisions Investment provisions Other provisionsLoan loss provisions Investment provisions Other provisionsLoan loss provisions Investment provisions Other provisions
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 34 : Balance Sheet (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 34 : Balance Sheet (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 34 : Balance Sheet (Rs In Cr)
Y/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11A
AssetsAssetsAssets
Cash and Balance with Reserve Bank 2303 2745 2975Cash and Balance with Reserve Bank 2303 2745 2975
Balance with Banks & Money at 2972 1870 574Balance with Banks & Money at 2972 1870 574Balance with Banks & Money at 2972 1870 574
Investments 10736 13956 19696Investments 10736 13956 19696Investments 10736 13956 19696
Advances 20930 23057 26194Advances 20930 23057 26194Advances 20930 23057 26194
Gross Fixed Assets 529 568 794Gross Fixed Assets 529 568 794Gross Fixed Assets 529 568 794
Depreciation 333 366 402Depreciation 333 366 402Depreciation 333 366 402
Net Fixed Assets 196 203 392Net Fixed Assets 196 203 392Net Fixed Assets 196 203 392
WIP 3 1 2WIP 3 1 2WIP 3 1 2
Other Assets 552 715 676Other Assets 552 715 676Other Assets 552 715 676
Total Assets 37693 42547 50508Total Assets 37693 42547 50508Total Assets 37693 42547 50508
Capital and LiabilitiesCapital and LiabilitiesCapital and Liabilities
Capital 48 48 48Capital 48 48 48
Reserves and Surplus 2574 2962 3430
Capital 48 48 48
Reserves and Surplus 2574 2962 3430Reserves and Surplus 2574 2962 3430
Deposits 33004 37237 44676Deposits 33004 37237 44676Deposits 33004 37237 44676
Borrowings 997 1100 1105Borrowings 997 1100 1105Borrowings 997 1100 1105
Other Liabilities and Provisions 1070 1199 1249Other Liabilities and Provisions 1070 1199 1249Other Liabilities and Provisions 1070 1199 1249
Total Liabilities 37693 42547 50508Total Liabilities 37693 42547 50508Total Liabilities 37693 42547 50508
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 33 : Net profit & tax %Exhibit 33 : Net profit & tax %Exhibit 33 : Net profit & tax %
34%2000 34%2000
33% 33% 33% 33% 33%33% 33% 33% 33% 33%1500 33% 33% 33%
32%
33%1500
32%
1823
32%
1000
1496
1823
31% 31%
1000
1055 1253
1496
1823
31% 31%
803
1055 1253
149631%
30%500
803
1055
30%500
803 30%
29%0 29%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Net Profit Tax %Net Profit Tax %Net Profit Tax %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
2784 2695 2722 2749 27772784 2695 2722 2749 2777
1670 2709 2967 3709 37381670 2709 2967 3709 37381670 2709 2967 3709 3738
21624 25741 29121 32962 3732921624 25741 29121 32962 3732921624 25741 29121 32962 37329
33077 39200 47432 56445 6660533077 39200 47432 56445 6660533077 39200 47432 56445 66605
856 934 1009 1090 1177856 934 1009 1090 1177856 934 1009 1090 1177
440 490 541 595 654440 490 541 595 654440 490 541 595 654
415 444 468 495 523415 444 468 495 523415 444 468 495 523
5 13 13 13 135 13 13 13 135 13 13 13 13
694 941 1159 1350 1569694 941 1159 1350 1569694 941 1159 1350 1569
60270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 112553
48 48 48 48 4848 48 48 48 48
4045 4816 5731 6823 8154
48 48 48 48 48
4045 4816 5731 6823 81544045 4816 5731 6823 8154
53347 64221 74817 87162 10023653347 64221 74817 87162 10023653347 64221 74817 87162 100236
1241 1075 1218 1279 13131241 1075 1218 1279 13131241 1075 1218 1279 1313
1589 1583 2069 2410 28011589 1583 2069 2410 28011589 1583 2069 2410 2801
60270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 112553
Exhibit 35 : Loan Split (%)Exhibit 35 : Loan Split (%)Exhibit 35 : Loan Split (%)
FY13A FY14EFY13A FY14EFY13A FY14E
2% Agri9%2% Agri
10%2% Agri9%
9%
2% Agri
10%2% Agri
9%
Trade
10%
9% TradeTrade 9% Trade
15% Pers
Trade
15%
57%
Pers 15% Pers57%
Pers 15%
56%
Pers
8%
57%
SME
8%
56%
SME8% SME
8% SME
Corp
8% SME
Corp CorpCorp Corp
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 37 : DepositsExhibit 37 : DepositsExhibit 37 : Deposits
66605
30%80000
66605
26%
30%80000
56445
66605
26%
47432
56445
26%
21%
60000 47432
19%
21%
19% 20%
60000
39200
47432
19%
21%
19% 18%
20%
33077
3920019% 19% 18%
40000 3307740000
10%10%
20000
10%
2000020000
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Advances Growth %Advances Growth %
Source: Perception Research
Advances Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 39 : InvestmentExhibit 39 : Investment
37329 20%40000
32962
37329
19%
20%40000
29121
32962
37329
19%
20%40000
25741
29121
3296219%
25741
29121
15%30000
21624
25741
13% 13% 13%
15%30000
21624 13% 13% 13%
10% 10%20000 10% 10%20000
5%10000 5%10000
0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Investments Growth %Investments Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 36 : Investment Split (%)Exhibit 36 : Investment Split (%)Exhibit 36 : Investment Split (%)
FY13A FY14EFY13A FY14EFY13A FY14E
Gov Sec Gov SecGov Sec Gov SecGov Sec Gov Sec
Shares35% Shares 34% Shares35% Shares 34% Shares
Bonds
55% Bonds
34%
Bonds
55% Bonds 55%
Bonds
JVs
55%
0%0%
Bonds 55%
0%0%
JVs
9%
0%0% JVs 10%
0%0%
JVs
Approved
1%9%
0%0% JVs
1%
10%
0%0%
Approved
1%9%
Approved
1%
10% Approved
OthersApproved
1%
OthersApproved Others
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 38 : AdvancesExhibit 38 : AdvancesExhibit 38 : Advances
66605
30%80000
66605
26%
30%80000
56445
66605
26%
47432
56445
26%
21%
60000 47432
19%
21%
19% 20%
60000
39200
47432
19%
21%
19% 18%
20%
33077
3920019% 19% 18%
40000 3307740000
10%10%
20000
10%
2000020000
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Advances Growth %Advances Growth %
Source: Perception Research
Advances Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 40 : BorrowingsExhibit 40 : Borrowings
2801 20%3000
2410
2801 20%3000
2410
2801
13%
20%3000
2069
2410
12% 13%
10%
206912% 13%
10%
2000 1589 1583 5%
10%
2000 1589 1583 5%
3%
0%
2000
3%
0%0%
1000
-10%
1000
-13%
-10%
1000
-13%
-10%
-13%
-20%0 -20%0 -20%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Borrowings Growth %Borrowings Growth %
Source: Perception Research
Borrowings Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 41 : RatioExhibit 41 : RatioExhibit 41 : Ratio
Y/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11A
FinancialFinancialFinancial
EPS 85 106 127EPS 85 106 127EPS 85 106 127
DPS 17 22 26DPS 17 22 26DPS 17 22 26
BV/S 541 621 717BV/S 541 621 717BV/S 541 621 717
Valuation & ProfitabilityValuation & Profitability
P/E (X) 6.8 7.3 5.3
Valuation & Profitability
P/E (X) 6.8 7.3 5.3P/E (X) 6.8 7.3 5.3
P/BV (X) 1.1 1.2 0.9P/BV (X) 1.1 1.2 0.9P/BV (X) 1.1 1.2 0.9
NIM (%) 3% 3% 3%NIM (%) 3% 3% 3%NIM (%) 3% 3% 3%
ROE (%) 15.6% 17.0% 17.7%ROE (%) 15.6% 17.0% 17.7%ROE (%) 15.6% 17.0% 17.7%
ROA (%) - 1.49% 1.48%ROA (%) - 1.49% 1.48%ROA (%) - 1.49% 1.48%
Dividend yield (%) 8.0% 4.1% 4.0%Dividend yield (%) 8.0% 4.1% 4.0%Dividend yield (%) 8.0% 4.1% 4.0%
EfficiencyEfficiencyEfficiency
CASA 38% 41% 40%CASA 38% 41% 40%CASA 38% 41% 40%
CD (%) 63% 62% 59%CD (%) 63% 62% 59%CD (%) 63% 62% 59%
Slippage (%) 1.9% 0.8% 1.1%Slippage (%) 1.9% 0.8% 1.1%Slippage (%) 1.9% 0.8% 1.1%
Capital adequacy ratio 13.46% 14.81% 13.30%Capital adequacy ratio 13.46% 14.81% 13.30%Capital adequacy ratio 13.46% 14.81% 13.30%
GrowthGrowth
Growth in advances (%) - 10% 14%Growth in advances (%) - 10% 14%Growth in advances (%) - 10% 14%
Growth in deposits (%) - 13% 20%Growth in deposits (%) - 13% 20%Growth in deposits (%) - 13% 20%
Growth in Investment (%) - 30% 41%Growth in Investment (%) - 30% 41%Growth in Investment (%) - 30% 41%
Asset QualityAsset QualityAsset Quality
GNPA (%) 2.6% 2.0% 1.9%GNPA (%) 2.6% 2.0% 1.9%GNPA (%) 2.6% 2.0% 1.9%
NNPA (%) 1.4% 0.3% 0.2%NNPA (%) 1.4% 0.3% 0.2%NNPA (%) 1.4% 0.3% 0.2%
GNPA (Rs In Cr) 559 462 519GNPA (Rs In Cr) 559 462 519GNPA (Rs In Cr) 559 462 519
NNPA (Rs In Cr) 288 64 53NNPA (Rs In Cr) 288 64 53NNPA (Rs In Cr) 288 64 53
Provisions coverage % 48.6% 86.1% 89.7%Provisions coverage % 48.6% 86.1% 89.7%Provisions coverage % 48.6% 86.1% 89.7%
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
166 218 258 309 376166 218 258 309 376166 218 258 309 376
33 50 59 71 8633 50 59 71 8633 50 59 71 86
844 1003 1192 1417 1692844 1003 1192 1417 1692844 1003 1192 1417 1692
7.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.97.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.97.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9
1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
3% 4% 4% 4% 4%3% 4% 4% 4% 4%3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
19.6% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%19.6% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%19.6% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%
1.60% 1.76% 1.77% 1.80% 1.89%1.60% 1.76% 1.77% 1.80% 1.89%1.60% 1.76% 1.77% 1.80% 1.89%
5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%
41% 39% 40% 40% 40%41% 39% 40% 40% 40%41% 39% 40% 40% 40%
62% 61% 63% 65% 66%62% 61% 63% 65% 66%62% 61% 63% 65% 66%
1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
12.53% 12.34% 13.11% 12.74% 12.61%12.53% 12.34% 13.11% 12.74% 12.61%12.53% 12.34% 13.11% 12.74% 12.61%
26% 19% 21% 19% 18%26% 19% 21% 19% 18%26% 19% 21% 19% 18%
19% 20% 17% 17% 15%19% 20% 17% 17% 15%19% 20% 17% 17% 15%
10% 19% 13% 13% 13%10% 19% 13% 13% 13%10% 19% 13% 13% 13%
1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
517 644 777 844 903517 644 777 844 903517 644 777 844 903
49 55 70 76 8149 55 70 76 8149 55 70 76 81
90.4% 91.4% 91.0% 91.0% 91.0%90.4% 91.4% 91.0% 91.0% 91.0%90.4% 91.4% 91.0% 91.0% 91.0%
Exhibit 42: EPSExhibit 42: EPSExhibit 42: EPS
376376 40%400
309
376 40%400
258
309
31% 31% 25831% 31% 30%300
218
25831% 31% 30%300
166
218
22%166
19% 19%
22% 20%200 166
19% 19%
22% 20%200 19%
10%100 10%100 10%100
0%0 0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
EPS Growth %EPS Growth %EPS Growth %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 44 : GNPA, NNPA & PCRExhibit 44 : GNPA, NNPA & PCRExhibit 44 : GNPA, NNPA & PCR
92%1500 91% 92%1500 91%
91% 91% 91% 91%91% 91% 91% 91%
1000
76 81
91% 91% 91% 91%
1000
70 76 81
91%
1000
55
70 76
90% 91%
49
5590% 91%
500
777 844 903
49
90%
500
517 644 777 844 903
49
90%
500
517 644 777 90%
517
90%0 90%0 90%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
GNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (Rs In Cr) Provisions coverage %GNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (Rs In Cr) Provisions coverage %
Source: Perception Research
GNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (Rs In Cr) Provisions coverage %
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 46 : ROE %Exhibit 46 : ROE %Exhibit 46 : ROE %
ROE (%)ROE (%)ROE (%)
21.7% 21.7% 22.2%21.7% 21.7% 21.8%
22.2%21.7% 21.7% 21.8%
19.6%19.6%19.6%
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 43 : DSP & Dividend yield %Exhibit 43 : DSP & Dividend yield %Exhibit 43 : DSP & Dividend yield %
86 60%100 86 60%100
7149%80
59
7149%80
50
59 40%
60
80
50
59 40%
60
33
50
29%
60
33 29%
22% 20%
40
33
19% 19% 22% 20%
40
19% 19% 22% 20%
20
5% 6% 8%
20
5% 5% 5% 6% 8%
0%0
20
5% 5% 5% 6% 8%
0%0 0%0
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
DPS Growth % Dividend yield (%)DPS Growth % Dividend yield (%)DPS Growth % Dividend yield (%)
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 45 : CASA, CD, Slippage & Capital Adequacy ratioExhibit 45 : CASA, CD, Slippage & Capital Adequacy ratioExhibit 45 : CASA, CD, Slippage & Capital Adequacy ratio
15.0%80%
62% 61% 63% 65% 66% 15.0%80%
62% 61% 63% 65% 66%
12.5% 12.3% 13.1% 12.7% 12.6%
15.0%80%
62% 61% 63%
12.5% 12.3% 13.1% 12.7% 12.6%
60%
12.5% 12.3% 12.6%
10.0%
60%
41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 10.0%
60%
41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 10.0%
40%40%
5.0%
40%
5.0%
20%
5.0%
20%
1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
20%
1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
0.0%0%
1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
0.0%0% 0.0%0%
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
CASA CD (%) Slippage (%) Capital adequacy ratioCASA CD (%) Slippage (%) Capital adequacy ratio
Source: Perception Research
CASA CD (%) Slippage (%) Capital adequacy ratio
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Exhibit 47 : ROA %Exhibit 47 : ROA %Exhibit 47 : ROA %
ROA (%)ROA (%)
1.9%
ROA (%)
1.9%
1.8% 1.8%
1.9%
1.8% 1.8% 1.8%1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
1.6%1.6%
FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
Quarterly performance Q1 FY14Quarterly performance Q1 FY14Quarterly performance Q1 FY14
Exhibit 48: Quarterly Financials Performance (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 48: Quarterly Financials Performance (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 48: Quarterly Financials Performance (Rs In Cr)
Profit & Loss Account Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQProfit & Loss Account Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQProfit & Loss Account Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQ
Interest Earned 1476 1627 1624 -0.2%Interest Earned 1476 1627 1624 -0.2%Interest Earned 1476 1627 1624 -0.2%
Interest Expended 941 993 969 -2.4%Interest Expended 941 993 969 -2.4%Interest Expended 941 993 969 -2.4%
Net Interest Income 536 634 655 3.4%Net Interest Income 536 634 655 3.4%Net Interest Income 536 634 655 3.4%
Other Income 93 209 92 -55.9%Other Income 93 209 92 -55.9%Other Income 93 209 92 -55.9%
Operating Income 629 842 747 -11.3%Operating Income 629 842 747 -11.3%Operating Income 629 842 747 -11.3%
Operating Expenses 214 304 266 -12.5%Operating Expenses 214 304 266 -12.5%Operating Expenses 214 304 266 -12.5%
Operating Profit 415 538 481 -10.6%Operating Profit 415 538 481 -10.6%Operating Profit 415 538 481 -10.6%
Provisions & Contingencies 50 179 36 -79.7%Provisions & Contingencies 50 179 36 -79.7%Provisions & Contingencies 50 179 36 -79.7%
PBT 365 360 445 23.7%PBT 365 360 445 23.7%PBT 365 360 445 23.7%
Tax Provision 119 109 137 25.0%Tax Provision 119 109 137 25.0%Tax Provision 119 109 137 25.0%
Net Profit 246 250 308 23.1%Net Profit 246 250 308 23.1%Net Profit 246 250 308 23.1%
Share Capital 48 48 48 0.0%Share Capital 48 48 48 0.0%Share Capital 48 48 48 0.0%
EPS in Rs. 51 52 64 23.1%EPS in Rs. 51 52 64 23.1%EPS in Rs. 51 52 64 23.1%
Balance Sheet Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQBalance Sheet Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQBalance Sheet Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQ
Capital & LiabilitiesCapital & LiabilitiesCapital & Liabilities
Capital 48 - 48Capital 48 - 48Capital 48 - 48
Reserves & Surplus 4291 - 5124Reserves & Surplus 4291 - 5124Reserves & Surplus 4291 - 5124
Deposits 53117 - 58601Deposits 53117 - 58601Deposits 53117 - 58601
Borrowings 1168 - 758Borrowings 1168 - 758Borrowings 1168 - 758
Other Liabilities & Provisions 1367 - 1216Other Liabilities & Provisions 1367 - 1216Other Liabilities & Provisions 1367 - 1216
Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747
AssetsAssetsAssets
Cash & Bank Balance 2357 - 2871Cash & Bank Balance 2357 - 2871Cash & Bank Balance 2357 - 2871
Balance with Banks 1037 - 372Balance with Banks 1037 - 372Balance with Banks 1037 - 372
Investments 22016 - 21734Investments 22016 - 21734Investments 22016 - 21734
Advances 33225 - 39282Advances 33225 - 39282Advances 33225 - 39282
Fixed Assets 424 - 475Fixed Assets 424 - 475Fixed Assets 424 - 475
Other Assets 933 - 1013Other Assets 933 - 1013Other Assets 933 - 1013
Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY
0.2% 10.0% 4836 6137 26.9%0.2% 10.0% 4836 6137 26.9%0.2% 10.0% 4836 6137 26.9%
2.4% 3.1% 2997 3821 27.5%2.4% 3.1% 2997 3821 27.5%2.4% 3.1% 2997 3821 27.5%
3.4% 22.3% 1838 2316 26.0%3.4% 22.3% 1838 2316 26.0%3.4% 22.3% 1838 2316 26.0%
55.9% -1.2% 334 484 44.8%55.9% -1.2% 334 484 44.8%55.9% -1.2% 334 484 44.8%
11.3% 18.8% 2172 2800 28.9%11.3% 18.8% 2172 2800 28.9%11.3% 18.8% 2172 2800 28.9%
12.5% 24.5% 802 989 23.3%12.5% 24.5% 802 989 23.3%12.5% 24.5% 802 989 23.3%
10.6% 15.9% 1370 1811 32.1%10.6% 15.9% 1370 1811 32.1%10.6% 15.9% 1370 1811 32.1%
79.7% -28.1% 169 284 67.9%79.7% -28.1% 169 284 67.9%79.7% -28.1% 169 284 67.9%
23.7% 21.9% 1201 1527 27.1%23.7% 21.9% 1201 1527 27.1%23.7% 21.9% 1201 1527 27.1%
25.0% 15.3% 398 471 18.5%25.0% 15.3% 398 471 18.5%25.0% 15.3% 398 471 18.5%
23.1% 25.1% 803 1055 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 803 1055 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 803 1055 31.4%
0.0% 0.0% 48 48 0.0%0.0% 0.0% 48 48 0.0%0.0% 0.0% 48 48 0.0%
23.1% 25.1% 166 218 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 166 218 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 166 218 31.4%
% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY
- 0.0% 48 48 0.0%- 0.0% 48 48 0.0%- 0.0% 48 48 0.0%
- 19.4% 4045 4816 19.1%- 19.4% 4045 4816 19.1%- 19.4% 4045 4816 19.1%
- 10.3% 53347 64221 20.4%- 10.3% 53347 64221 20.4%- 10.3% 53347 64221 20.4%
- -35.2% 1241 1075 -13.4%- -35.2% 1241 1075 -13.4%- -35.2% 1241 1075 -13.4%
- -11.0% 1588 1583 -0.3%- -11.0% 1588 1583 -0.3%- -11.0% 1588 1583 -0.3%
- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%
- 21.8% 2784 2695 -3.2%- 21.8% 2784 2695 -3.2%- 21.8% 2784 2695 -3.2%
- -64.1% 1670 2709 62.2%- -64.1% 1670 2709 62.2%- -64.1% 1670 2709 62.2%
- -1.3% 21624 25741 19.0%- -1.3% 21624 25741 19.0%- -1.3% 21624 25741 19.0%
- 18.2% 33077 39200 18.5%- 18.2% 33077 39200 18.5%- 18.2% 33077 39200 18.5%
- 11.9% 420 456 8.5%- 11.9% 420 456 8.5%- 11.9% 420 456 8.5%
- 8.6% 693 941 35.8%- 8.6% 693 941 35.8%- 8.6% 693 941 35.8%
- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%
Exhibit 49: Quarterly Geographical Break-up (Rs In Cr) &(%)Exhibit 49: Quarterly Geographical Break-up (Rs In Cr) &(%)Exhibit 49: Quarterly Geographical Break-up (Rs In Cr) &(%)
Advances sector wise break-upAdvances sector wise break-upAdvances sector wise break-up
CorporateCorporateCorporate
SMESMESME
PersonalPersonalPersonal
TradeTradeTrade
AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture
OthersOthersOthers
Advances break-up within J&K StateAdvances break-up within J&K StateAdvances break-up within J&K State
CorporateCorporateCorporate
SMESMESME
PersonalPersonalPersonal
TradeTradeTrade
AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture
OthersOthersOthers
Advances break-up outside of J&K StateAdvances break-up outside of J&K StateAdvances break-up outside of J&K State
CorporateCorporateCorporate
SMESMESME
PersonalPersonalPersonal
TradeTradeTrade
AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture
OthersOthersOthers
Other break-up Q1FY14 Within J&K stateOther break-up Q1FY14 Within J&K stateOther break-up Q1FY14 Within J&K state
Deposits 39681Deposits 39681Deposits 39681
Gross Advances Within J&K 16940Gross Advances Within J&K 16940Gross Advances Within J&K 16940
Gross Profit (Rs Cr) 362Gross Profit (Rs Cr) 362Gross Profit (Rs Cr) 362
NIMsNIMsNIMs
No. of Branches 582No. of Branches 582No. of Branches 582
No. of ATMs 591No. of ATMs 591No. of ATMs 591
balance sheet details 1QFY14 4QFY13balance sheet details 1QFY14 4QFY13balance sheet details 1QFY14 4QFY13
Deposits With in J&K 39681 40867Deposits With in J&K 39681 40867Deposits With in J&K 39681 40867
Rest of India 18920 23354Rest of India 18920 23354Rest of India 18920 23354
Whole Bank 58601 64221Whole Bank 58601 64221Whole Bank 58601 64221
Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 15839Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 15839Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 15839
Rest of India 23294 24293Rest of India 23294 24293Rest of India 23294 24293
Whole Bank 40234 40132Whole Bank 40234 40132Whole Bank 40234 40132
Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14
56% 57% 56%56% 57% 56%56% 57% 56%
8% 8% 8%8% 8% 8%8% 8% 8%
16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15%
9% 9% 9%9% 9% 9%9% 9% 9%
10% 9% 10%10% 9% 10%10% 9% 10%
1% 2% 2%1% 2% 2%1% 2% 2%
1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14
18% 19% 20%18% 19% 20%18% 19% 20%
16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15%
35% 32% 32%35% 32% 32%35% 32% 32%
16% 16% 15%16% 16% 15%16% 16% 15%
15% 16% 17%15% 16% 17%15% 16% 17%
1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1%
1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14
81% 82% 83%81% 82% 83%81% 82% 83%
3% 3% 3%3% 3% 3%3% 3% 3%
4% 3% 3%4% 3% 3%4% 3% 3%
4% 5% 5%4% 5% 5%4% 5% 5%
7% 5% 5%7% 5% 5%7% 5% 5%
1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1%
Within J&K state Rest of IndiaWithin J&K state Rest of IndiaWithin J&K state Rest of India
39681 68% 18920 32%39681 68% 18920 32%39681 68% 18920 32%
16940 42% 23294 58%16940 42% 23294 58%16940 42% 23294 58%
362 75% 119 25%362 75% 119 25%362 75% 119 25%
- 6% - 3%- 6% - 3%- 6% - 3%
582 84% 113 16%582 84% 113 16%582 84% 113 16%
591 89% 70 11%591 89% 70 11%591 89% 70 11%
4QFY13 1QFY13 % QOQ % SPLY4QFY13 1QFY13 % QOQ % SPLY4QFY13 1QFY13 % QOQ % SPLY
40867 34920 13.6 -2.940867 34920 13.6 -2.940867 34920 13.6 -2.9
23354 18197 4 -1923354 18197 4 -1923354 18197 4 -19
64221 53117 10.3 -8.864221 53117 10.3 -8.864221 53117 10.3 -8.8
15839 13525 25.2 715839 13525 25.2 715839 13525 25.2 7
24293 20544 13.4 -4.124293 20544 13.4 -4.124293 20544 13.4 -4.1
40132 34069 18.1 0.340132 34069 18.1 0.340132 34069 18.1 0.3
J&k bank ltd.
J&k bank ltd.
J&k bank ltd.
J&k bank ltd.
J&k bank ltd.
J&k bank ltd.

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J&k bank ltd.

  • 1. Date - 25th Sep 2013Date - 25th Sep 2013Date - 25 Sep 2013 Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUYJammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd - BUY CMP - INR 1101.00 TP - INR 1453.00 RiskCMP - INR 1101.00 TP - INR 1453.00 RiskCMP - INR 1101.00 TP - INR 1453.00 Risk TH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % ReturnTH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % ReturnTH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % ReturnTH - 12 to 15 Months Up Side - 32.12 % Return We initiate coverage on Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. (J&K BankWe initiate coverage on Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. (J&K BankWe initiate coverage on Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd. (J&K Bank a price target of Rs 1453 (1.22x FY14 P/BV) over a perioda price target of Rs 1453 (1.22x FY14 P/BV) over a perioda price target of Rs 1453 (1.22x FY14 P/BV) over a period representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101representing a potential upside of 32.12%. At CMP of Rs 1101 at 0.9x and 0.8x its P/BV for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. J&Kat 0.9x and 0.8x its P/BV for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. J&Kat 0.9x and 0.8x its P/BV for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. J&K focusing on the high margin loan book in the J&K state,focusing on the high margin loan book in the J&K state,focusing on the high margin loan book in the J&K state, Potential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiencyPotential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiencyPotential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiencyPotential in horticultural lending, high operating efficiency quality should lead to an impressive growth in top and bottomquality should lead to an impressive growth in top and bottomquality should lead to an impressive growth in top and bottom a CAGR of 23% and 20%, respectively over the period of FYa CAGR of 23% and 20%, respectively over the period of FYa CAGR of 23% and 20%, respectively over the period of FY constant dividend paying history of past several years and bestconstant dividend paying history of past several years and bestconstant dividend paying history of past several years and best return ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunity constant dividend paying history of past several years and best return ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunityreturn ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunityreturn ratios, we rate this stock as a potential investment opportunity Investment rationaleInvestment rationaleInvestment rationale Healthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continue Loan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last five deposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over thedeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over thedeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over the FY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectively to FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongto FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongto FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity along infrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expect growth for J&K in the near future.growth for J&K in the near future.growth for J&K in the near future. Strong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state create the dominions J&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&KJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&KJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K behalf of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of thebehalf of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of thebehalf of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the It has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branchesIt has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branchesIt has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branchesIt has the leadership in the state with a network of 455 branches 80% of total branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates80% of total branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates80% of total branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates market share in total advances and 65% market share in total depositsmarket share in total advances and 65% market share in total depositsmarket share in total advances and 65% market share in total deposits Focus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIM With strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towards bank will support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6bank will support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6bank will support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6 and 2.50% outside the state. As per our financial model we stronglyand 2.50% outside the state. As per our financial model we stronglyand 2.50% outside the state. As per our financial model we strongly bank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FYbank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FYbank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FYbank will maintain the NIM in the range of 3.90% to 4.20% for FY BUYBUYBUYBUYBUY Risk - MediumRisk - MediumRisk - Medium Return - High “> 25%”Return - High “> 25%”Return - High “> 25%”Return - High “> 25%” Bank Ltd.) as a BUY withBank Ltd.) as a BUY withBank Ltd.) as a BUY with period of 12 to 15 months Market Dataperiod of 12 to 15 months Market Dataperiod of 12 to 15 months 1101, the stock is trading Market Data Sensex / Nifty 19856/58741101, the stock is trading Sensex / Nifty 19856/58741101, the stock is trading Sensex / Nifty 19856/5874 Equity Shares (Cr) 4.84 1101, the stock is trading J&K Bank’s strategy of Equity Shares (Cr) 4.84J&K Bank’s strategy of Equity Shares (Cr) 4.84 Face Value (INR) 10.00 J&K Bank’s strategy of has observed a huge Face Value (INR) 10.00 has observed a huge Face Value (INR) 10.00 Avg 12m Vol (‘000) 11.54 has observed a huge and improving asset Avg 12m Vol (‘000) 11.54 and improving asset Avg 12m Vol (‘000) 11.54 52-wk HI/LO (INR) 937/1473and improving asset 52-wk HI/LO (INR) 937/1473and improving asset bottom line numbers at 52-wk HI/LO (INR) 937/1473 Free Float (Cr) 2610.00bottom line numbers at Free Float (Cr) 2610.00bottom line numbers at FY13A to FY16E. With a Free Float (Cr) 2610.00 O/S shares (Cr) 48.49FY13A to FY16E. With a O/S shares (Cr) 48.49FY13A to FY16E. With a best in class share holder O/S shares (Cr) 48.49 Market Cap (Cr) 5333.90best in class share holder Market Cap (Cr) 5333.90best in class share holder opportunity. Market Cap (Cr) 5333.90best in class share holder opportunity.opportunity. Y/E Mar (Cr) FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E opportunity. Y/E Mar (Cr) FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EY/E Mar (Cr) FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E NII 2316 2803 3315 3978NII 2316 2803 3315 3978NII 2316 2803 3315 3978 OP 1811 2247 2699 3294OP 1811 2247 2699 3294OP 1811 2247 2699 3294 NP 1055 1253 1496 1823NP 1055 1253 1496 1823 five years (loan book and NP 1055 1253 1496 1823 EPS (INR) 218 258 309 376five years (loan book and EPS (INR) 218 258 309 376five years (loan book and the period of FY09A to EPS (INR) 218 258 309 376 DPS (INR) 50 59 71 86the period of FY09A to DPS (INR) 50 59 71 86the period of FY09A to respectively over FY13A DPS (INR) 50 59 71 86 NIM (%) 4% 4% 4% 4% respectively over FY13A NIM (%) 4% 4% 4% 4% respectively over FY13A NIM (%) 4% 4% 4% 4% Div Yield (%) 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9% respectively over FY13A along with the focus on Div Yield (%) 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9% along with the focus on Div Yield (%) 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9% ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%along with the focus on expect an increase in the ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2% expect an increase in the ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2% ROA (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3.5%expect an increase in the ROA (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3.5% P/E (X) 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9P/E (X) 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9 dominions P/E (X) 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9 P/BV (X) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7dominions P/BV (X) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7dominions P/BV (X) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7dominions J&K . It has right to act ofJ&K . It has right to act of Holding Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13 J&K . It has right to act of the central government. Holding Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13 the central government. Holding Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q3FY13 Q2FY13 Promoter 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% the central government. branches which comprises Promoter 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% branches which comprises Promoter 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% 53.17% FII 24.75% 24.54% 24.28% 24.76%branches which comprises FII 24.75% 24.54% 24.28% 24.76%branches which comprises dominates the region with 70% FII 24.75% 24.54% 24.28% 24.76% DII 4.95% 4.91% 4.89% 3.90%dominates the region with 70% DII 4.95% 4.91% 4.89% 3.90%dominates the region with 70% deposits in the state. DII 4.95% 4.91% 4.89% 3.90% Non Institutions 17.13% 17.38% 17.66% 18.17%deposits in the state. Non Institutions 17.13% 17.38% 17.66% 18.17%deposits in the state. Non Institutions 17.13% 17.38% 17.66% 18.17% Analyst Details towards J&K state, J&K Analyst Details towards J&K state, J&K Analyst Details Pushkaraj Jamsandekar towards J&K state, J&K 6.20% within the state Pushkaraj Jamsandekar 6.20% within the state Pushkaraj Jamsandekar Contact - +098691395076.20% within the state strongly expect that J&K Contact - +09869139507 strongly expect that J&K Contact - +09869139507 Mail ID - pushkarajjamsandekar@yahoo.comstrongly expect that J&K FY14E. Mail ID - pushkarajjamsandekar@yahoo.com FY14E. Mail ID - pushkarajjamsandekar@yahoo.com Perception Research & AdvisoryFY14E. Perception Research & AdvisoryFY14E. Perception Research & Advisory
  • 2. Huge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural Lending J&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output andJ&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output andJ&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output andJ&K State produces 77 % of India’s total apple output and dedicated to apple cultivation. Out of a total of more than 283000dedicated to apple cultivation. Out of a total of more than 283000dedicated to apple cultivation. Out of a total of more than 283000 State, Bank’s finance has been extended to about 17300 growersState, Bank’s finance has been extended to about 17300 growersState, Bank’s finance has been extended to about 17300 growers remaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr moreremaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr moreremaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr moreremaining growers will generate credit of about Rs.7000 Cr more Apple growers get their financing from traders and are unawareApple growers get their financing from traders and are unawareApple growers get their financing from traders and are unaware cost works out to 36% to 54%, against the Bank’s interest rangingcost works out to 36% to 54%, against the Bank’s interest rangingcost works out to 36% to 54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 incremental Agricultural Advances at Base Rate of 10.25 %incremental Agricultural Advances at Base Rate of 10.25 %incremental Agricultural Advances at Base Rate of 10.25 % (10.25% –4%) would generate an incremental revenue of about(10.25% –4%) would generate an incremental revenue of about(10.25% –4%) would generate an incremental revenue of about lending Rs. 2335 Cr to agricultural sector.lending Rs. 2335 Cr to agricultural sector.lending Rs. 2335 Cr to agricultural sector. Massive expansion in networkMassive expansion in networkMassive expansion in networkMassive expansion in network To improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the more business J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their network impressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalent of FY15.of FY15.of FY15. Cheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yield At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price times. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividend At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price times. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividend comfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading at for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. and controls 49 % of landand controls 49 % of landand controls 49 % of landand controls 49 % of land 283000 apple growers in the283000 apple growers in the283000 apple growers in the growers so far. Tapping thegrowers so far. Tapping thegrowers so far. Tapping the more. In J&K state’s 75% ofmore. In J&K state’s 75% ofmore. In J&K state’s 75% ofmore. In J&K state’s 75% of unaware that its effective interestunaware that its effective interestunaware that its effective interest ranging from 4% to 11%.ranging from 4% to 11%.ranging from 4% to 11%. 2335 cr. Assuming yield on2335 cr. Assuming yield on2335 cr. Assuming yield on2335 cr. Assuming yield on %, the incremental yield%, the incremental yield%, the incremental yield about Rs. 146 Cr per year onabout Rs. 146 Cr per year onabout Rs. 146 Cr per year on opportunities in bankingopportunities in bankingopportunities in banking network. The bank hasnetwork. The bank hasnetwork. The bank has equivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the end Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9 dividend yield provides with a Price to book value of 0.9 dividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with a at 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PE
  • 3. ConcernsConcernsConcerns Change in political environmentChange in political environmentChange in political environmentChange in political environment Instable geopolitical uncertainty in the J&K State would hamperInstable geopolitical uncertainty in the J&K State would hamperInstable geopolitical uncertainty in the J&K State would hamper sentiment.sentiment.sentiment. Rupee depreciationRupee depreciationRupee depreciationRupee depreciation The rupee has depreciated about 25 % this year and touchedThe rupee has depreciated about 25 % this year and touchedThe rupee has depreciated about 25 % this year and touched lower rupee value is the major concern for Indian economiclower rupee value is the major concern for Indian economiclower rupee value is the major concern for Indian economic adverse impact on Indian banking sector.adverse impact on Indian banking sector.adverse impact on Indian banking sector.adverse impact on Indian banking sector. Higher inflation rateHigher inflation rateHigher inflation rate Higher inflation rate is another major concern in India. Bank lendingHigher inflation rate is another major concern in India. Bank lendingHigher inflation rate is another major concern in India. Bank lending an inverse relation, observing the past trend it was absolutelyan inverse relation, observing the past trend it was absolutelyan inverse relation, observing the past trend it was absolutely inflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rateinflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rateinflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rateinflation rate moves up it starts pulling down the bank lending rate Negative investor sentimentNegative investor sentimentNegative investor sentiment Higher inflation rate, unexpected rupee depreciation, lowerHigher inflation rate, unexpected rupee depreciation, lowerHigher inflation rate, unexpected rupee depreciation, lower uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII &uncertainty in political environment may hamper investor (FII & Low GDP growth or below expectationLow GDP growth or below expectationLow GDP growth or below expectation For the current fiscal, India is targeting 4 to 5 percent GDP growthFor the current fiscal, India is targeting 4 to 5 percent GDP growthFor the current fiscal, India is targeting 4 to 5 percent GDP growth negatively impact on Indian banking sector.negatively impact on Indian banking sector.negatively impact on Indian banking sector.negatively impact on Indian banking sector. hamper the overall businesshamper the overall businesshamper the overall business touched a record low of 68.80.touched a record low of 68.80.touched a record low of 68.80. economic growth, along with aneconomic growth, along with aneconomic growth, along with an lending and inflation havelending and inflation havelending and inflation have absolutely clear that once theabsolutely clear that once theabsolutely clear that once the rate.rate.rate.rate. lower capital expenditure andlower capital expenditure andlower capital expenditure and & DII) sentiment.& DII) sentiment.& DII) sentiment.& DII) sentiment. growth. Lower in GDP maygrowth. Lower in GDP maygrowth. Lower in GDP may
  • 4. Company backgroundCompany backgroundCompany background The Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in JammuThe Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in JammuThe Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in JammuThe Bank, incorporated in 1938, as a universal bank in Jammu specialized bank in the rest of the country. It is also thespecialized bank in the rest of the country. It is also thespecialized bank in the rest of the country. It is also the designated as RBI’s agent for banking business, and carries outdesignated as RBI’s agent for banking business, and carries outdesignated as RBI’s agent for banking business, and carries out the Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDTthe Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDTthe Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDTthe Central Government, besides collecting central taxes for CBDT two-legged business model whereby it seeks to increase lendingtwo-legged business model whereby it seeks to increase lendingtwo-legged business model whereby it seeks to increase lending results in higher margins despite modest volumes, and at theresults in higher margins despite modest volumes, and at theresults in higher margins despite modest volumes, and at the capture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to buildcapture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to buildcapture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to buildcapture niche lending opportunities on a pan-India basis to build margins.margins.margins. Share holding patternShare holding patternShare holding pattern Exhibit 01 : Change in holding by No. of sharesExhibit 01 : Change in holding by No. of sharesExhibit 01 : Change in holding by No. of shares Y/E March 31 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13Y/E March 31 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13Y/E March 31 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 (A) Promoter & Group 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2%(A) Promoter & Group 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2%(A) Promoter & Group 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% Chief Secretary, Gov of J & K 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% 50.2%Chief Secretary, Gov of J & K 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% 50.2%Chief Secretary, Gov of J & K 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% 50.2% Secretary Fin Dept, Gov, of J & K 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Secretary Fin Dept, Gov, of J & K 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% (B) Public Shareholding 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8%(B) Public Shareholding 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8%(B) Public Shareholding 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% 46.8% (1) Institutions 29.5% 28.7% 29.2% 29.4%(1) Institutions 29.5% 28.7% 29.2% 29.4%(1) Institutions 29.5% 28.7% 29.2% 29.4% Mutual Funds / UTI 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4%Mutual Funds / UTI 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4%Mutual Funds / UTI 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 4.4% Financial Institutions / Banks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Financial Institutions / Banks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Financial Institutions / Banks 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Insurance Companies 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%Insurance Companies 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%Insurance Companies 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Foreign Institutional Investors 26.5% 24.8% 24.3% 24.5%Foreign Institutional Investors 26.5% 24.8% 24.3% 24.5%Foreign Institutional Investors 26.5% 24.8% 24.3% 24.5% (2) Non-Institutions 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4%(2) Non-Institutions 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4%(2) Non-Institutions 6.1% 6.1% 5.6% 5.4% (3) Individuals 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 11.4%(3) Individuals 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 11.4%(3) Individuals 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 11.4% Any Others (Specify) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%Any Others (Specify) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%Any Others (Specify) 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% Total share holding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Total share holding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Total share holding 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Private sector bank, despite government’s majority holdingPrivate sector bank, despite government’s majority holdingPrivate sector bank, despite government’s majority holding J&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of governmentJ&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of governmentJ&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of governmentJ&K Bank is the only bank which has 53.2% of government banks. Out of the total promoter holding, 94% of shares are heldbanks. Out of the total promoter holding, 94% of shares are heldbanks. Out of the total promoter holding, 94% of shares are held government of J&K and balance 6% is held in strong handsgovernment of J&K and balance 6% is held in strong handsgovernment of J&K and balance 6% is held in strong hands department of government of J&K.department of government of J&K.department of government of J&K.department of government of J&K. Jammu & Kashmir and as aJammu & Kashmir and as aJammu & Kashmir and as aJammu & Kashmir and as a only private sector bankonly private sector bankonly private sector bank out the banking business ofout the banking business ofout the banking business of CBDT. J&K Bank follows aCBDT. J&K Bank follows aCBDT. J&K Bank follows aCBDT. J&K Bank follows a lending in its home state whichlending in its home state whichlending in its home state which the same time, seeks tothe same time, seeks tothe same time, seeks to build volumes and improvebuild volumes and improvebuild volumes and improvebuild volumes and improve Q4FY13 Q1FY14 % QOQ % SPLY Share Holding Pattern Q1FY14Q4FY13 Q1FY14 % QOQ % SPLY Share Holding Pattern Q1FY14Q4FY13 Q1FY14 % QOQ % SPLY Share Holding Pattern Q1FY14 53.2% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0%53.2% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0%53.2% 53.2% 0.0% 0.0% 50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0%50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0%50.2% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% Promoter3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% Promoter 46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17%46.8% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 29.7% 0.9% 0.7% 17% 29.4% 29.7% 0.9% 0.7%29.4% 29.7% 0.9% 0.7% 4.4% 4.5% 1.0% 78.7% 5% FII 4.4% 4.5% 1.0% 78.7% 5% FII 4.4% 4.5% 1.0% 78.7% 0.0% 0.0% -15.7% 0.0% 5% 0.0% 0.0% -15.7% 0.0% 53% 0.0% 0.0% -15.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 53% DII0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 53% DII0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 24.8% 0.9% -6.7% 25% DII 24.5% 24.8% 0.9% -6.7% 25%24.5% 24.8% 0.9% -6.7% 5.4% 5.0% -6.2% -17.4% 25% 5.4% 5.0% -6.2% -17.4% Non Institutions5.4% 5.0% -6.2% -17.4% 11.4% 11.4% 0.3% 6.3% Non Institutions 11.4% 11.4% 0.3% 6.3%11.4% 11.4% 0.3% 6.3% 0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 33.4%0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 33.4%0.6% 0.7% 7.5% 33.4% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% holding in private sectorholding in private sectorholding in private sectorholding in private sector held by the chief secretaryheld by the chief secretaryheld by the chief secretary hands of secretary financehands of secretary financehands of secretary finance
  • 5. Investment rationaleInvestment rationaleInvestment rationale Healthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continueHealthy performance to continue Loan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last fiveLoan book and deposits grew at moderate pace over last five deposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, overdeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, overdeposits grew at a CAGR of 17% and 18% respectively, over FY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectivelyFY13A) instead of an expected CAGR growth of 19% and 16% respectively FY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongFY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity alongFY16E. Due to increased commercial and tourism activity along infrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expectinfrastructure spending by the central government , we expect for J&K in the near future.for J&K in the near future.for J&K in the near future.for J&K in the near future. Exhibit 02 : Growth in depositsExhibit 02 : Growth in depositsExhibit 02 : Growth in deposits 66605 30%80000 66605 26% 30%80000 56445 66605 26% 47432 56445 26% 60000 47432 56445 21% 19% 20% 60000 39200 47432 19% 21% 19% 18% 20% 33077 3920019% 19% 18% 40000 3307740000 10% 40000 10% 20000 10% 2000020000 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Advances Growth %Advances Growth %Advances Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research J&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&KJ&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&KJ&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&KJ&K bank has strong deposit franchise and focus towards J&K to deposits and 39% to loan book respectively. The managementto deposits and 39% to loan book respectively. The managementto deposits and 39% to loan book respectively. The management confident to maintain their market share in J&K state for the currentconfident to maintain their market share in J&K state for the currentconfident to maintain their market share in J&K state for the current DepositsDepositsDeposits Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYY/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYY/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOY Within J&K 34920 40867 39681 -3% 14% 35308 40867 16%Within J&K 34920 40867 39681 -3% 14% 35308 40867 16%Within J&K 34920 40867 39681 -3% 14% 35308 40867 16% Rest of India 18197 23354 18920 -19% 4% 13803 23354 69%Rest of India 18197 23354 18920 -19% 4% 13803 23354 69%Rest of India 18197 23354 18920 -19% 4% 13803 23354 69% Whole Bank 53117 64221 58601 -9% 10% 49111 64221 31%Whole Bank 53117 64221 58601 -9% 10% 49111 64221 31%Whole Bank 53117 64221 58601 -9% 10% 49111 64221 31% Within J&K 66% 64% 68% - - 72% 64%Within J&K 66% 64% 68% - - 72% 64%Within J&K 66% 64% 68% - - 72% 64% Rest of India 34% 36% 32% - - 28% 36%Rest of India 34% 36% 32% - - 28% 36%Rest of India 34% 36% 32% - - 28% 36% five years (loan book andfive years (loan book andfive years (loan book and over the period of FY09A toover the period of FY09A toover the period of FY09A to respectively over FY13A torespectively over FY13A torespectively over FY13A torespectively over FY13A to along with the focus onalong with the focus onalong with the focus on an increase in the growthan increase in the growthan increase in the growth Exhibit 03 : Growth in advancesExhibit 03 : Growth in advancesExhibit 03 : Growth in advances 66605 30%80000 66605 26% 30%80000 56445 66605 26% 47432 56445 26% 60000 47432 56445 21% 19% 20% 60000 39200 47432 19% 21% 19% 18% 20% 33077 3920019% 19% 18% 40000 3307740000 10% 40000 10% 20000 10% 2000020000 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Advances Growth %Advances Growth %Advances Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research state would support 64%state would support 64%state would support 64%state would support 64% management of J&K bank is prettymanagement of J&K bank is prettymanagement of J&K bank is pretty current fiscal.current fiscal.current fiscal. Gross AdvancesGross AdvancesGross Advances YOY Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYYOY Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOYYOY Y/E 31 March 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 QOQ SPLY FY12A FY13A YOY 16% Within J&K 13525 15839 16940 7% 25% 12574 15839 26%16% Within J&K 13525 15839 16940 7% 25% 12574 15839 26%16% Within J&K 13525 15839 16940 7% 25% 12574 15839 26% 69% Rest of India 20544 24293 23294 -4% 13% 20556 24293 18%69% Rest of India 20544 24293 23294 -4% 13% 20556 24293 18%69% Rest of India 20544 24293 23294 -4% 13% 20556 24293 18% 31% Whole Bank 34069 40132 40234 0% 18% 33130 40132 21%31% Whole Bank 34069 40132 40234 0% 18% 33130 40132 21%31% Whole Bank 34069 40132 40234 0% 18% 33130 40132 21% - Within J&K 40% 39% 42% - - 38% 39% -- Within J&K 40% 39% 42% - - 38% 39% -- Within J&K 40% 39% 42% - - 38% 39% - - Rest of India 60% 61% 58% - - 62% 61% -- Rest of India 60% 61% 58% - - 62% 61% -- Rest of India 60% 61% 58% - - 62% 61% -
  • 6. Strong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominionsStrong geographic presence in J&K state creates the dominions J&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K . ItJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K . ItJ&K bank is the only a private sector bank in the state of J&K . It of the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the centralof the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the centralof the RBI to carry on the general banking business of the central leadership in the state with a network of 455 branches whichleadership in the state with a network of 455 branches whichleadership in the state with a network of 455 branches which branches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region withbranches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region withbranches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region withbranches and 399 ATMs. J&K bank also dominates the region with total advances and 65% market share in total deposits in the statetotal advances and 65% market share in total deposits in the statetotal advances and 65% market share in total deposits in the state Exhibit 04: Branches Total – J&K StateExhibit 04: Branches Total – J&K State 100%2000 100%2000 82% 85% 87% 87% 100%2000 82% 85% 87% 87% 80% 1500 85769% 82% 85% 80% 1500 715 85769% 60% 1500 715 69% 60% 579 715 60% 1000 380 496 579 40% 1000 380 496 40% 985 380 500 548 603 685 821 985 20% 500 548 603 685 821 985 20% 548 603 685 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Total Branches J&K Branches J&K Branches % to toatlTotal Branches J&K Branches J&K Branches % to toatlTotal Branches J&K Branches J&K Branches % to toatl Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Massive expansion in networkMassive expansion in networkMassive expansion in network To improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the moreTo improve the geographic presence and to obtain the more business J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their networkbusiness J&K bank planned massive expansion in their network impressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalentimpressive expansion plan of 300 new branches and almost equivalent of FY15.of FY15.of FY15. Exhibit 06: Expansion plan in Branches & ATMExhibit 06: Expansion plan in Branches & ATMExhibit 06: Expansion plan in Branches & ATM 50%2000 50%2000 50%2000 41% 40% 1500 837 41% 40% 1500 837 30% 1500 698 837 30% 613 698 25% 30% 1000 508 613 20% 20% 25% 21% 20% 20% 1000 246 288 361 508 20% 20% 17% 21% 20% 20% 985 246 288 361 14% 20% 20% 17% 21% 14% 20% 20% 500 603 685 821 985 246 10% 14% 10% 14% 10% 500 530 536 548 603 685 821 98510%10% 10% 500 530 536 548 603 685 1% 1% 2% 0%0 1% 1% 2% 0%0 1% 1% 0%0 FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Branches ATM Growth % Growth %Branches ATM Growth % Growth %Branches ATM Growth % Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research dominionsdominionsdominionsdominions It has right to act of behalfIt has right to act of behalfIt has right to act of behalf central government. It has thecentral government. It has thecentral government. It has the which comprises 80% of totalwhich comprises 80% of totalwhich comprises 80% of total with 70% market share inwith 70% market share inwith 70% market share inwith 70% market share in state.state.state. Exhibit 05: ATM Total – J&K StateExhibit 05: ATM Total – J&K State 100%2000 90% 90% 100%2000 89% 90% 90% 100%2000 89% 90% 90% 80% 1500 68% 80% 1500 75461% 68% 60% 1500 628 75461% 68% 60% 1000 544 628 75461% 60% 1000 544 628 40% 1000 345 544 40% 837220 345 20% 500 508 613 698 837220 20% 500 361 508 613 698 837220 20% 361 508 613 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Total ATM J&K ATM J&K ATM % to toatl FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Total ATM J&K ATM J&K ATM % to toatlTotal ATM J&K ATM J&K ATM % to toatl Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research opportunities in bankingopportunities in bankingopportunities in banking network. The bank hasnetwork. The bank hasnetwork. The bank has equivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the endequivalent ATMs by the end Exhibit 07: Branches in Metro, Urban, Semi – Urban & RuralExhibit 07: Branches in Metro, Urban, Semi – Urban & RuralExhibit 07: Branches in Metro, Urban, Semi – Urban & Rural 120012001200 10001000 453800 453800 378 453 600 332 378600 197204 206 223 273 332 400 600 164 197204 206 223 273 332 400 119 121 118 123 136 164 197204 206 223400 222 266 119 121 118 123 136 164 200 166 168 168 168 178 222 266 119 121 118 123 200 41 41 39 39 39 57 69 166 168 168 168 178 222 0 41 41 39 39 39 57 6900 FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E Metro Urban Semi-Urban RuralMetro Urban Semi-Urban Rural Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 7. Focus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIMFocus towards J&K state will lead to improvement in NIM With strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towardsWith strong deposit franchise and focus (increase lending) towards support margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6.20% withinsupport margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6.20% withinsupport margins going ahead. Bank earns NIMs of 6.20% within outside the state. We expected NIM to sustain at current levelsoutside the state. We expected NIM to sustain at current levelsoutside the state. We expected NIM to sustain at current levels the range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growththe range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growththe range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growththe range of 61 to 65 percent, going ahead, and credit growth portfolio) is expected to grow at a faster pace. J&K Bank hasportfolio) is expected to grow at a faster pace. J&K Bank hasportfolio) is expected to grow at a faster pace. J&K Bank has FY13, which we expect to improve to 63% in FY14E andFY13, which we expect to improve to 63% in FY14E andFY13, which we expect to improve to 63% in FY14E and management has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpacemanagement has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpacemanagement has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpacemanagement has guided credit growth (22-25%) will outpace We have factored in 21% credit growth and 16.5% deposit growthWe have factored in 21% credit growth and 16.5% deposit growthWe have factored in 21% credit growth and 16.5% deposit growth Exhibit 08:Loan Book - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 08:Loan Book - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 08:Loan Book - J&K stats and Rest of India 30%80000 26% 30%80000 26% 25% 23% 26% 23% 23% 25% 60000 23% 23% 23% 21% 20% 60000 38620 21% 18% 18% 20% 33298 3862018% 18% 16% 16% 15% 20% 40000 28701 33298 13% 16% 16% 15%40000 24293 28701 33298 13% 10% 15%40000 20556 24293 2870113% 10% 20000 29135 20556 24293 10% 20000 19536 24113 29135 20556 5% 20000 12574 15839 19536 24113 29135 5% 12574 15839 19536 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 10:NIM - J&K stateExhibit 10:NIM - J&K stateExhibit 10:NIM - J&K state FY15E, 6.2% FY16E, 6.2%FY15E, 6.2% FY16E, 6.2% FY13A, 6.2% FY15E, 6.2% FY16E, 6.2% FY13A, 6.2%FY13A, 6.2% FY14E, 6.1%FY14E, 6.1%FY14E, 6.1% FY12A, 6.0%FY12A, 6.0%FY12A, 6.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research towards J&K state wouldtowards J&K state wouldtowards J&K state would within the state and 2.5%within the state and 2.5%within the state and 2.5% levels of 4%+ as its CD ratio inlevels of 4%+ as its CD ratio inlevels of 4%+ as its CD ratio in growth with J&K (higher yieldinggrowth with J&K (higher yieldinggrowth with J&K (higher yieldinggrowth with J&K (higher yielding has a CD ratio of 61% as onhas a CD ratio of 61% as onhas a CD ratio of 61% as on 64% in FY15E. Even the64% in FY15E. Even the64% in FY15E. Even the deposit growth (17-18%).deposit growth (17-18%).deposit growth (17-18%).deposit growth (17-18%). growth in FY14E.growth in FY14E.growth in FY14E. Exhibit 09: Deposits - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 09: Deposits - J&K stats and Rest of IndiaExhibit 09: Deposits - J&K stats and Rest of India 80%120000 69% 80%120000 69%100000 69% 60% 100000 41097 60% 80000 34865 4109780000 28430 34865 41097 40%60000 80000 23354 28430 34865 40%60000 13803 23354 28430 40% 40000 60000 59139 13803 23354 24% 22% 23% 20% 40000 40867 46387 52297 59139 13803 16% 14% 24% 22% 23% 18% 20% 20000 40000 35308 40867 46387 52297 59139 12% 16% 14% 13% 13% 22% 23% 18% 20% 20000 35308 40867 4638712% 16% 14% 13% 13%20000 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%)J&K State Rest of India Growth (%) Growth (%) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 11:NIM - Rest of IndiaExhibit 11:NIM - Rest of IndiaExhibit 11:NIM - Rest of India FY15E, 2.6%FY15E, 2.6% FY16E, 2.6% FY15E, 2.6% FY16E, 2.6%FY16E, 2.6% FY13A, 2.6%FY13A, 2.6% FY12A, 2.5% FY14E, 2.5%FY12A, 2.5% FY14E, 2.5%FY12A, 2.5% FY14E, 2.5% 0 1 2 3 4 5 60 1 2 3 4 5 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 8. Huge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural LendingHuge Potential in J&K state for Horticultural Lending Agriculture involves about 70% of the population and contributesAgriculture involves about 70% of the population and contributesAgriculture involves about 70% of the population and contributes only 16 % of J&K Bank’s lending is to this sector. Horticulturalonly 16 % of J&K Bank’s lending is to this sector. Horticulturalonly 16 % of J&K Bank’s lending is to this sector. Horticultural about 45 % to Agricultural production and involves 30 lac peopleabout 45 % to Agricultural production and involves 30 lac peopleabout 45 % to Agricultural production and involves 30 lac people % by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces% by value of the State’s Horticultural output. J&K State produces apple output and controls 49 % of land dedicated to apple cultivationapple output and controls 49 % of land dedicated to apple cultivationapple output and controls 49 % of land dedicated to apple cultivation Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State,Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State,Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State, extended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remaining Out of a total of more than 283000 apple growers in the State, extended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remainingextended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remainingextended to about 17300 growers so far. Tapping the remaining credit of about Rs.7000 Cr more. In J&K 75 % of Apple growerscredit of about Rs.7000 Cr more. In J&K 75 % of Apple growerscredit of about Rs.7000 Cr more. In J&K 75 % of Apple growers traders and are unaware that its effective interest cost thattraders and are unaware that its effective interest cost thattraders and are unaware that its effective interest cost that 54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%.54%, against the Bank’s interest ranging from 4% to11%. Current shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 Cr, whichCurrent shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 Cr, whichCurrent shortfall in Agriculture Sector Lending is Rs. 2335 Cr, which RIDF/MSME Bonds/RHF @ 3 to 5 % for 3-7 years. Interest SubventionRIDF/MSME Bonds/RHF @ 3 to 5 % for 3-7 years. Interest SubventionRIDF/MSME Bonds/RHF @ 3 to 5 % for 3-7 years. Interest Subvention to J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Publicto J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Publicto J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Publicto J&K Bank recently providing a level playing field vis-à-vis Public of pricing of agricultural loans and improve the flow of creditof pricing of agricultural loans and improve the flow of creditof pricing of agricultural loans and improve the flow of credit particularly in J&K State. Assuming yield on incremental Agriculturalparticularly in J&K State. Assuming yield on incremental Agriculturalparticularly in J&K State. Assuming yield on incremental Agricultural Rate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) wouldRate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) wouldRate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) wouldRate of 10.25 %, the incremental yield (10.25% - 4 %) would revenue of about Rs. 146 Cr per year on lending Rs.revenue of about Rs. 146 Cr per year on lending Rs.revenue of about Rs. 146 Cr per year on lending Rs. sector, increasing agricultural advances which will improvesector, increasing agricultural advances which will improvesector, increasing agricultural advances which will improve helping in financial inclusion, widening customer base andhelping in financial inclusion, widening customer base andhelping in financial inclusion, widening customer base andhelping in financial inclusion, widening customer base and remote rural areas.remote rural areas.remote rural areas. Exhibit 12: Apple Grower in J&K StateExhibit 12: Apple Grower in J&K StateExhibit 12: Apple Grower in J&K State Total GrowerTotal GrowerTotal Grower , 283000, 283000, 283000 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research contributes 23 % to the GDP, yetcontributes 23 % to the GDP, yetcontributes 23 % to the GDP, yet Horticultural production contributesHorticultural production contributesHorticultural production contributes people. Apples account for 86people. Apples account for 86people. Apples account for 86 produces 77 % of India’s totalproduces 77 % of India’s totalproduces 77 % of India’s totalproduces 77 % of India’s total cultivation.cultivation.cultivation. State, Bank’s finance has beenState, Bank’s finance has beenState, Bank’s finance has been remaining growers will generate State, Bank’s finance has been remaining growers will generateremaining growers will generateremaining growers will generate growers get their financing fromgrowers get their financing fromgrowers get their financing from that works out to 36% tothat works out to 36% tothat works out to 36% to which has to be invested inwhich has to be invested inwhich has to be invested in Subvention Scheme extendedSubvention Scheme extendedSubvention Scheme extended Public Sector Banks in termsPublic Sector Banks in termsPublic Sector Banks in termsPublic Sector Banks in terms credit to agricultural sectorcredit to agricultural sectorcredit to agricultural sector Agricultural Advances at BaseAgricultural Advances at BaseAgricultural Advances at Base would generate an incrementalwould generate an incrementalwould generate an incrementalwould generate an incremental 2335 Cr to agricultural2335 Cr to agricultural2335 Cr to agricultural core advances portfoliocore advances portfoliocore advances portfolio and enhancing outreach inand enhancing outreach inand enhancing outreach inand enhancing outreach in Potential ForPotential ForPotential For Lending, 265700Lending, 265700Lending, 265700 J&K'sJ&K's Borrower,17300Borrower,17300Borrower,17300
  • 9. Cheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yieldCheap Valuation and High Dividend yield At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price Cheap Valuation and High Dividend yield At current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E PriceAt current market price, J&K bank is still available at FY14E Price times. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividendtimes. The estimated dividend yield for FY14 is 5.4%. High dividend comfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading atcomfortable cushion. At CMP of Rs 1101, the stock is trading at for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively.for FY14E & FY15E, respectively. Exhibit 13: P/E (x) & P/BV (x)Exhibit 13: P/E (x) & P/BV (x) 1.51.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.90.9 1.10.9 1.1 0.9 7.3 7.8 0.9 0.86.8 7.3 7.8 0.8 0.66.8 7.3 5.3 0.8 0.6 5.3 5.1 4.3 0.6 5.3 5.1 4.34.3 3.53.5 2.92.9 FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E P/E (X) P/BV (X)P/E (X) P/BV (X) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9Price to book value of 0.9 dividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with adividend yield provides with a at 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PEat 4.3x and 3.5x to its PE Exhibit 14: DPS & Dividend yieldExhibit 14: DPS & Dividend yield 88 10%100 88 10%100 72 88 10%100 728% 8% 8%80 59 728% 8% 8%80 50 59 7% 6%60 50 5% 7% 6%60 33 50 5% 5% 5% 6%60 26 334% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4%40 17 22 26 334% 4% 5% 4%40 17 22 26 2%20 17 2%20 2%20 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY9A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E DPS Dividend yield (%)DPS Dividend yield (%)DPS Dividend yield (%) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 10. Asset qualityAsset qualityAsset qualityAsset quality GNPA is slightly higher during FY13….and expecting to be sameGNPA is slightly higher during FY13….and expecting to be sameGNPA is slightly higher during FY13….and expecting to be same On the YOY basis J&K bank posted a slightly higher GNPA (Rs 39200On the YOY basis J&K bank posted a slightly higher GNPA (Rs 39200On the YOY basis J&K bank posted a slightly higher GNPA (Rs 39200 compared to previous year of FY12 (Rs 33077, 1.56 % to advance)compared to previous year of FY12 (Rs 33077, 1.56 % to advance)compared to previous year of FY12 (Rs 33077, 1.56 % to advance) from management of J&K bank and our financial model we stronglyfrom management of J&K bank and our financial model we stronglyfrom management of J&K bank and our financial model we stronglyfrom management of J&K bank and our financial model we strongly Bank will maintain there GNPA in the range of 1.65% to 1.70% forBank will maintain there GNPA in the range of 1.65% to 1.70% forBank will maintain there GNPA in the range of 1.65% to 1.70% for Well position PCR (Provision coverage ration)Well position PCR (Provision coverage ration)Well position PCR (Provision coverage ration) The bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past threeThe bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past threeThe bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past threeThe bank consistently maintained the PCR at 90% in past three from management we expect that bank will maintain the PCR atfrom management we expect that bank will maintain the PCR atfrom management we expect that bank will maintain the PCR at Exhibit 15: Gross NPAExhibit 15: Gross NPAExhibit 15: Gross NPA 11041104 1.70%1200 958 1104 1.67% 1.68% 1.67% 1.70%1200 9581.67% 1.68% 1.67% 1.65%1000 809 9581.67% 1.68% 1.67% 1.65%1000 809 1.62% 1.65% 800 1000 644 1.62% 1.60% 800 517 644 1.62% 1.60% 800 517 1.60% 600 517 1.55% 600 1.54% 1.55% 400 1.54%400 1.50%200 1.50%200 1.45%0 200 1.45%0 1.45%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E GNPA (Rs In Cr) GNPA (%)GNPA (Rs In Cr) GNPA (%)GNPA (Rs In Cr) GNPA (%) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 17: NPA - Substandard, Doubtful & LossExhibit 17: NPA - Substandard, Doubtful & LossExhibit 17: NPA - Substandard, Doubtful & Loss 12001200 77 1200 77 1000 72 77 1000 65 72 800 640 65800 556 640 57 65 600 469 556 640 57600 378 469 556 93 57 400 600 378 46993 400 247 378400 275 331 386 247 200 176 209 275 331 386200 176 209 275 331 00 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Substandard Doubtful LossSubstandard Doubtful Loss Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research same for FY14Esame for FY14Esame for FY14E 39200, 1.64% to advance)39200, 1.64% to advance)39200, 1.64% to advance) advance). As per the guidanceadvance). As per the guidanceadvance). As per the guidance strongly expect that, the J&Kstrongly expect that, the J&Kstrongly expect that, the J&Kstrongly expect that, the J&K for the fiscal of FY14.for the fiscal of FY14.for the fiscal of FY14. year. As per the guidanceyear. As per the guidanceyear. As per the guidanceyear. As per the guidance at 91% for FY14E.at 91% for FY14E.at 91% for FY14E. Exhibit 16: Net NPAExhibit 16: Net NPAExhibit 16: Net NPA 9494 0.15%100 81 94 0.15%100 81 0.15% 69 0.15% 0.15% 80 69 0.15% 80 49 55 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.15% 60 49 55 0.14% 0.14% 0.14%60 49 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 60 0.14% 0.14% 40 0.14%40 0.14% 40 0.14% 20 0.14% 20 0.13%0 0.13%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E NNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (%)NNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (%)NNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (%) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 18: PCRExhibit 18: PCRExhibit 18: PCR 91% 92% 92% 92% 92%1500 1150 91% 92% 92% 92% 92%1500 1150 105290% 91% 92% 92% 92% 90%966 1150 884 105290% 90% 90% 805 966 884 105290% 90% 1000 644 805737 884 88% 1000 519 517 644 805 589 737 88% 462 519 517 644 398 466 467 589 86% 86%462 519 517 398 466 46786% 86% 500 46239886% 86% 500 84% 500 84% 82%0 82%0 82%0 FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E GNPA Provisions on BS Provisions coverage %GNPA Provisions on BS Provisions coverage %GNPA Provisions on BS Provisions coverage % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 11. Slippages on a marginal increaseSlippages on a marginal increaseSlippages on a marginal increase Slippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoy Slippages on a marginal increase Slippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoySlippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoySlippages are marginally increasing during the FY13. On yoy bank posted the slippage ratio of 1.16 for the period of FY13 againstbank posted the slippage ratio of 1.16 for the period of FY13 againstbank posted the slippage ratio of 1.16 for the period of FY13 against the 0.95 of FY12. Even for the Q1FY14 slippage is 0.88 whichthe 0.95 of FY12. Even for the Q1FY14 slippage is 0.88 whichthe 0.95 of FY12. Even for the Q1FY14 slippage is 0.88 which slightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippageslightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippageslightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippageslightly higher on qoq basis. We have assumed 1.15 slippage on for FY14E and expecting that it will gradually reduce in FY15on for FY14E and expecting that it will gradually reduce in FY15on for FY14E and expecting that it will gradually reduce in FY15 FY16EFY16EFY16E Consistency in CASAConsistency in CASAConsistency in CASAConsistency in CASA CASA ratio of J&K Bank is 40% against the industry average ofCASA ratio of J&K Bank is 40% against the industry average ofCASA ratio of J&K Bank is 40% against the industry average of Healthy CASA is one of the advantage of J&K bank. We stronglyHealthy CASA is one of the advantage of J&K bank. We stronglyHealthy CASA is one of the advantage of J&K bank. We strongly expect that bank will maintain this position in the coming twoexpect that bank will maintain this position in the coming twoexpect that bank will maintain this position in the coming twoexpect that bank will maintain this position in the coming two three years.three years.three years. Restructure assets % to total advanceRestructure assets % to total advanceRestructure assets % to total advance As restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginalAs restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginalAs restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginalAs restructure assets are technical in nature, there are marginal decreases in restructure assets in advance for FY13. On yoy basisdecreases in restructure assets in advance for FY13. On yoy basisdecreases in restructure assets in advance for FY13. On yoy basis restructure assets in advance for FY 13 is 1490 Cr (3.84%) againstrestructure assets in advance for FY 13 is 1490 Cr (3.84%) againstrestructure assets in advance for FY 13 is 1490 Cr (3.84%) against 1366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 13671366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 13671366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 1367 (3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688 1366 Cr (4.13%) of FY12 and simultaneously for Q1FY14 it is 1367 (3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688(3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688(3.48%) against the same period last year of Q1FY13 was 1688 (5.08%).(5.08%).(5.08%). Exhibit 19 : SlippageExhibit 19 : Slippage yoy basis Exhibit 19 : Slippage yoy basisyoy basisyoy basis against 1.50%80000 against 599 1.50%80000 against which is 599 1.16% 1.15%60000which is 564 599 1.16% 1.15% 1.00% 1.00% 60000which is slippage ratio 545 564 0.95% 1.16% 1.15% 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% 60000 slippage ratio 455 545 564 0.95% 1.00% 0.90% 1.00% 40000slippage ratio 66605315 455 545 0.90% 40000slippage ratio 15E and 56445 66605315 455 0.50% 40000 15E and 39200 47432 56445 66605315 0.50% 20000 15E and 33077 39200 47432 56445 0.50% 20000 33077 3920020000 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Standard assets NPA Addition Slippage ratioStandard assets NPA Addition Slippage ratio Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 20 : CASAExhibit 20 : CASA of 34%. Exhibit 20 : CASA of 34%.of 34%. strongly 41%150000strongly 41%150000strongly two to 41% 41% 41%150000 two to 40094 41% 41%two to 34865 40094 40% 41% 100000 two to 29927 3486540% 40% 40% 40%100000 25191 29927 3486540% 40% 40% 40%100000 21715 25191 29927 40% 21715 25191 39% 40% 87162 100236 21715 39% 39%50000 53347 64221 74817 87162 100236 39%50000 53347 64221 74817 87162 39%53347 64221 39% 38%0 38%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E total Deposits Demand + saving CASAtotal Deposits Demand + saving CASA Source: Perception Research total Deposits Demand + saving CASA Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 21 : Movement in Restructured AssetsExhibit 21 : Movement in Restructured AssetsExhibit 21 : Movement in Restructured Assets marginalmarginal 6.00%50000marginal 5.55% 6.00%50000marginal basis the 5.08% 5.55% 6.00%50000 basis the 1490 1490 13675.08% 5.55% 40000basis the against the 1366 1688 1367 1978 1490 1490 1367 4.13% 5.08% 3.99% 4.00% 40000 against the 1366 1688 1367 19784.13% 3.99% 3.80% 3.80% 3.48% 4.00% 30000against the 1367 Cr 1366 1688 13674.13% 3.99% 3.80% 3.80% 3.48% 4.00% 30000 1367 Cr 3.48% 20000 30000 1367 Cr 1688 Cr 33077 33225 34272 35657 39200 39200 39282 2.00% 20000 1367 Cr 1688 Cr 33077 33225 34272 35657 39200 39200 39282 2.00% 20000 1688 Cr 33077 33225 34272 35657 2.00% 10000 1688 Cr 10000 0.00%0 0.00%0 0.00%0 FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 FY13 Q1FY14FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 FY13 Q1FY14FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 FY13 Q1FY14 Advances Restructured Assets RA % to total advanceAdvances Restructured Assets RA % to total advance Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 12. Capital adequacyCapital adequacyCapital adequacy The bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratio Capital adequacy The bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratioThe bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratioThe bank is well capitalized with total capital adequacy ratio 10.44% and Tier 2 at 1.90% by the end of FY13. The risk weighted10.44% and Tier 2 at 1.90% by the end of FY13. The risk weighted10.44% and Tier 2 at 1.90% by the end of FY13. The risk weighted stood at 46597 Cr, 56% to total assets.stood at 46597 Cr, 56% to total assets.stood at 46597 Cr, 56% to total assets. Exhibit 22 : Tier I & II & Capital AdequacyExhibit 22 : Tier I & II & Capital Adequacy 13.50%15.00% 11.88% 11.72% 11.75% 13.50%15.00% 10.43% 10.44% 11.88% 11.72% 11.75% 13.11% 13.50%15.00% 10.43% 10.44% 11.88% 11.72% 11.75% 13.11% 13.00% 10.43% 10.44% 13.11% 13.00% 10.00% 12.74% 12.61% 13.00% 10.00% 12.53% 12.74% 12.61%12.50% 10.00% 12.53% 12.34% 12.61%12.50%12.53% 12.34% 12.50% 5.00% 2.10% 1.90% 12.34% 12.00% 5.00% 2.10% 1.90% 1.23% 1.02% 0.86% 12.00% 5.00% 1.90% 1.23% 1.02% 0.86% 12.00% 11.50%0.00% 11.50%0.00% 11.50%0.00% FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Tier 1 Tier 2 Capital adequacyTier 1 Tier 2 Capital adequacy Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion The bank’s asset quality remained stable sequentially, with a marginalThe bank’s asset quality remained stable sequentially, with a marginalThe bank’s asset quality remained stable sequentially, with a marginal gross NPA ratio to 1.62% and 1bp decline in the net NPA ratiogross NPA ratio to 1.62% and 1bp decline in the net NPA ratiogross NPA ratio to 1.62% and 1bp decline in the net NPA ratio levels were slightly higher at 140cr (for FY13 annualized slippagelevels were slightly higher at 140cr (for FY13 annualized slippagelevels were slightly higher at 140cr (for FY13 annualized slippage for FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industryfor FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industryfor FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industryfor FY12). The bank’s PCR which is the highest in the industry sequential basis (yoy) by 97bp to 91.41%.sequential basis (yoy) by 97bp to 91.41%.sequential basis (yoy) by 97bp to 91.41%. of 12.35% with Tier 1 atof 12.35% with Tier 1 atof 12.35% with Tier 1 atof 12.35% with Tier 1 at weighted assets for FY13 isweighted assets for FY13 isweighted assets for FY13 is Exhibit 23 : RWA, RWA to total assetsExhibit 23 : RWA, RWA to total assets 69783 65%80000 69783 65%80000 58634 69783 65%80000 48652 58634 62%60000 46597 48652 60% 62% 60% 60000 39244 46597 48652 60% 60% 60000 39244 58% 60% 60% 40000 58%40000 55% 56% 55% 40000 55% 56% 55% 20000 55% 55% 2000020000 50%0 50%0 50%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Risk weighted assets RWA / Total assetsRisk weighted assets RWA / Total assets Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research marginal increase of 8bp inmarginal increase of 8bp inmarginal increase of 8bp in ratio to 0.14%. The slippageratio to 0.14%. The slippageratio to 0.14%. The slippage slippage ratio of 1.16% v/s 0.95slippage ratio of 1.16% v/s 0.95slippage ratio of 1.16% v/s 0.95 industry by FY13, improved on aindustry by FY13, improved on aindustry by FY13, improved on aindustry by FY13, improved on a
  • 13. J&K State EconomyJ&K State EconomyJ&K State Economy GDP Size and GrowthGDP Size and GrowthGDP Size and GrowthGDP Size and Growth Economy or GDP in J&K State is accelerating and is poised forEconomy or GDP in J&K State is accelerating and is poised forEconomy or GDP in J&K State is accelerating and is poised for Government spending and Private Investment on the rise. RecordGovernment spending and Private Investment on the rise. RecordGovernment spending and Private Investment on the rise. Record last two years, more expected this year. Increased investmentlast two years, more expected this year. Increased investmentlast two years, more expected this year. Increased investmentlast two years, more expected this year. Increased investment pushing up credit demand. The demand for financing private sectorpushing up credit demand. The demand for financing private sectorpushing up credit demand. The demand for financing private sector ancillaries on the rise. Trickle down impact of all this will leadancillaries on the rise. Trickle down impact of all this will leadancillaries on the rise. Trickle down impact of all this will lead income and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loansincome and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loansincome and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loansincome and savings, increasing capacity for servicing personal loans Exhibit 24 : Sector wise contribution to GDPExhibit 24 : Sector wise contribution to GDPExhibit 24 : Sector wise contribution to GDP 5000050000 6.2240000 5.96 6.2240000 5.96 6.22 220164.8030000 18662 20344 220164.8030000 18662 20344 220164.80 2000020000 9871 9980 10600 20000 9871 9980 10600 10000 9871 9980 10600 10000 7796 8061 8154 10000 7796 8061 8154 0 7796 8061 8154 00 FY10 FY11 FY12FY10 FY11 FY12 Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary SectorPrimary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector Source: Perception Research Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research J&K State Credit GapJ&K State Credit GapJ&K State Credit GapJ&K State Credit Gap J&K accounts for 0.6% of India’s GDP, for FY13 and absorbs onlyJ&K accounts for 0.6% of India’s GDP, for FY13 and absorbs onlyJ&K accounts for 0.6% of India’s GDP, for FY13 and absorbs only credit. J&K accounts for 1% of India’s population and yet accountscredit. J&K accounts for 1% of India’s population and yet accountscredit. J&K accounts for 1% of India’s population and yet accounts India’s personal credit. Credit in J&K needs to increase five-foldIndia’s personal credit. Credit in J&K needs to increase five-foldIndia’s personal credit. Credit in J&K needs to increase five-fold J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average.J&K has to triple to catch up with the national average. for further growth in future.for further growth in future.for further growth in future. Record tourist inflow duringRecord tourist inflow duringRecord tourist inflow during investment in tourist infrastructureinvestment in tourist infrastructureinvestment in tourist infrastructureinvestment in tourist infrastructure sector projects, SME’s andsector projects, SME’s andsector projects, SME’s and lead to increase in per capitalead to increase in per capitalead to increase in per capita loans.loans.loans.loans. FY13 - J&K State’s Economy J&K StateFY13 - J&K State’s Economy J&K StateFY13 - J&K State’s Economy J&K State Population (In Cr) 1.25Population (In Cr) 1.25Population (In Cr) 1.25 Area (in Sq Km) 2222368.00 Area (in Sq Km) 2222368.00 Area (in Sq Km) 222236 Density (Per/Sq Km) 1247.01 7.00 Density (Per/Sq Km) 124 Per Capita Income 30889 7.01 7.00 Per Capita Income 308896.00 Per Capita Income 30889 Population BPL (%) 21.63%23947 6.00 Population BPL (%) 21.63%23947 5.00 Population BPL (%) 21.63% Literacy 68.74% 23947 4.00 5.00 Literacy 68.74%4.00 Literacy 68.74% Unemployment Rate 4.90% 3.00 4.00 Unemployment Rate 4.90% FY13 - Indian Economy All India 3.00 FY13 - Indian Economy All India10711 2.00 3.00 FY13 - Indian Economy All India Population (In Cr) 121.02 10711 2.00 Population (In Cr) 121.02 1.00 2.00 Population (In Cr) 121.02 Area (in Sq Kms) 32872408970 1.00 Area (in Sq Kms) 3287240 Density (Per/Sq Km) 382 8970 0.00 1.00 Density (Per/Sq Km) 382 8970 0.00 Density (Per/Sq Km) 382 Per Capita Income 39143 0.00 Per Capita Income 39143FY13 Per Capita Income 39143 Population BPL (%) 27.50% FY13 Population BPL (%) 27.50% J&K GDP Growth Rate Population BPL (%) 27.50% Literacy 74.04%J&K GDP Growth Rate Literacy 74.04% Unemployment Rate 9.40% J&K GDP Growth Rate Unemployment Rate 9.40%Unemployment Rate 9.40% only 0.30% of total nationalonly 0.30% of total nationalonly 0.30% of total national accounts for only 0.2% ofaccounts for only 0.2% ofaccounts for only 0.2% of fold and Personal Credit infold and Personal Credit infold and Personal Credit in
  • 14. Financials & ProjectionsFinancials & ProjectionsFinancials & Projections Exhibit 25: Profit and Loss A/C (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 25: Profit and Loss A/C (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 25: Profit and Loss A/C (Rs In Cr) Y/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11A Interest IncomeInterest IncomeInterest Income Yield on Advances 2295 2342 2630Yield on Advances 2295 2342 2630Yield on Advances 2295 2342 2630 Yield on Investments 646 705 1066Yield on Investments 646 705 1066 Yield on RBI & Inter Bank 31 11 17Yield on RBI & Inter Bank 31 11 17Yield on RBI & Inter Bank 31 11 17 Yield on Others 0 0 0Yield on Others 0 0 0Yield on Others 0 0 0 Total Interest Income 2972 3057 3713Total Interest Income 2972 3057 3713Total Interest Income 2972 3057 3713 Interest ExpenditureInterest ExpenditureInterest Expenditure Cost of Deposits 1915 1841 2069Cost of Deposits 1915 1841 2069Cost of Deposits 1915 1841 2069 Cost of RBI - Inter-Bank Borrowings 73 83 46Cost of RBI - Inter-Bank Borrowings 73 83 46Cost of RBI - Inter-Bank Borrowings 73 83 46 Cost of Subordinate Debt - Other 0 14 54Cost of Subordinate Debt - Other 0 14 54Cost of Subordinate Debt - Other 0 14 54 Total Interest Expenditure 1988 1938 2169Total Interest Expenditure 1988 1938 2169Total Interest Expenditure 1988 1938 2169 Net Interest Income 984 1119 1544Net Interest Income 984 1119 1544Net Interest Income 984 1119 1544 Non-Interest Income 261 416 365Non-Interest Income 261 416 365Non-Interest Income 261 416 365 Total Income 1245 1536 1908Total Income 1245 1536 1908Total Income 1245 1536 1908 Salaries/Wages 279 366 524Salaries/Wages 279 366 524 Depreciation 33 37 38Depreciation 33 37 38Depreciation 33 37 38 Other operating expenses 160 174 197Other operating expenses 160 174 197Other operating expenses 160 174 197 Pre Provision Profits 774 958 1149Pre Provision Profits 774 958 1149Pre Provision Profits 774 958 1149 Loan loss provisions 56 150 130Loan loss provisions 56 150 130Loan loss provisions 56 150 130 Investment provisions 42 -39 41Investment provisions 42 -39 41Investment provisions 42 -39 41 Other provisions 44 55 44Other provisions 44 55 44Other provisions 44 55 44 Provisions 142 167 215Provisions 142 167 215Provisions 142 167 215 Net Profit before tax 632 792 934Net Profit before tax 632 792 934Net Profit before tax 632 792 934 Income tax 222 279 319Income tax 222 279 319Income tax 222 279 319 Net Profit After Tax 410 513 615Net Profit After Tax 410 513 615Net Profit After Tax 410 513 615 AppropriationsAppropriations Transfer to Statutory Reserve 102 129 154 Appropriations Transfer to Statutory Reserve 102 129 154Transfer to Statutory Reserve 102 129 154 Transfer to Other Reserves 212 259 314Transfer to Other Reserves 212 259 314Transfer to Other Reserves 212 259 314 Equity Dividend 82 107 126Equity Dividend 82 107 126Equity Dividend 82 107 126 Dividend Tax 14 18 21Dividend Tax 14 18 21Dividend Tax 14 18 21 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E 3394 4318 5763 6830 80593394 4318 5763 6830 80593394 4318 5763 6830 8059 1403 1723 1893 2143 24261403 1723 1893 2143 2426 39 97 95 96 9739 97 95 96 9739 97 95 96 97 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 4836 6137 7751 9069 105834836 6137 7751 9069 105834836 6137 7751 9069 10583 2902 3741 4863 5666 65152902 3741 4863 5666 65152902 3741 4863 5666 6515 41 26 31 34 3641 26 31 34 3641 26 31 34 36 54 54 54 54 5454 54 54 54 5454 54 54 54 54 2997 3821 4948 5753 66052997 3821 4948 5753 66052997 3821 4948 5753 6605 1838 2316 2803 3315 39781838 2316 2803 3315 39781838 2316 2803 3315 3978 334 484 526 571 621334 484 526 571 621334 484 526 571 621 2172 2800 3329 3886 45992172 2800 3329 3886 45992172 2800 3329 3886 4599 521 652 731 818 916521 652 731 818 916 44 50 50 54 5944 50 50 54 5944 50 50 54 59 237 287 301 315 330237 287 301 315 330237 287 301 315 330 1370 1811 2247 2699 32941370 1811 2247 2699 32941370 1811 2247 2699 3294 90 158 217 260 30890 158 217 260 30890 158 217 260 308 12 15 16 19 2112 15 16 19 2112 15 16 19 21 67 111 144 187 24467 111 144 187 24467 111 144 187 244 169 284 377 466 572169 284 377 466 572169 284 377 466 572 1201 1527 1870 2233 27221201 1527 1870 2233 27221201 1527 1870 2233 2722 398 471 617 737 898398 471 617 737 898398 471 617 737 898 803 1055 1253 1496 1823803 1055 1253 1496 1823803 1055 1253 1496 1823 201 264 313 374 456201 264 313 374 456201 264 313 374 456 414 508 601 718 875414 508 601 718 875414 508 601 718 875 162 242 288 344 419162 242 288 344 419162 242 288 344 419 26 41 50 60 7326 41 50 60 7326 41 50 60 73
  • 15. Exhibit 26 : Yield on AdvancesExhibit 26 : Yield on AdvancesExhibit 26 : Yield on Advances 40%10000 8059 40%10000 6830 8059 33%8000 6830 29% 33% 30%8000 5763 6830 29% 27% 30%8000 576329% 27% 30% 6000 4318 20% 6000 3394 4318 19% 18% 20% 4000 3394 19% 18% 20% 4000 10.3% 11.0% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 10% 4000 10.3% 11.0% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 10%2000 10.3% 11.0% 10%2000 0%0 2000 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Yield on Advances Growth % Yield on Advances %Yield on Advances Growth % Yield on Advances % Source: Perception Research Yield on Advances Growth % Yield on Advances % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 28 : Total Interest Income & NIMExhibit 28 : Total Interest Income & NIMExhibit 28 : Total Interest Income & NIM 40%15000 40%15000 10583 9069 10583 30% 30% 7751 906930% 27% 26% 30% 10000 7751 906927% 26%10000 6137 7751 26% 20% 4836 6137 17% 17% 20% 4836 17% 17% 5000 17% 17% 10% 5000 10% 5000 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 10% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 0%0 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Interest Income Growth % NIM %Interest Income Growth % NIM % Source: Perception Research Interest Income Growth % NIM % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 30 : Deposits & Cost of depositedExhibit 30 : Deposits & Cost of deposited 7.0%8000 6515 7.0%8000 6515 7.0%8000 5666 6515 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 4863 56666.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%6000 4863 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%6000 3741 4863 5.8% 6.0% 2902 3741 5.8% 6.0% 4000 2902 5.4% 5.8% 5.5% 4000 2902 5.4% 5.5%5.4% 5.5% 2000 5.0%2000 5.0% 4.5%0 4.5%0 4.5%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Deposits Cost of deposits %Deposits Cost of deposits % Source: Perception Research Deposits Cost of deposits % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 27 : Yield on InvestmentExhibit 27 : Yield on InvestmentExhibit 27 : Yield on Investment 40%3000 2426 40%3000 2143 2426 32% 1893 214332% 30% 1723 189332% 30% 2000 1403 1723 23% 2000 1403 23% 20% 23% 20% 13% 13% 20% 1000 10% 13% 13% 10% 1000 10% 13% 13% 6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 10% 1000 10% 6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 10% 6.5% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Yield on Investment Growth % Yield on Investment %Yield on Investment Growth % Yield on Investment % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 29 : NII & % to Interest IncomeExhibit 29 : NII & % to Interest IncomeExhibit 29 : NII & % to Interest Income 39%5000 3978 39%5000 3315 3978 4000 331538% 38%4000 2803 331538% 38% 38% 38%4000 2316 280338% 38%3000 1838 2316 38% 37% 3000 1838 2316 37% 37% 2000 1838 37%2000 36% 37% 36% 2000 36% 36%1000 36%1000 35%0 35%0 35%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Net Interest Income NII % to Interest IncomeNet Interest Income NII % to Interest Income Source: Perception Research Net Interest Income NII % to Interest Income Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 31 : Operating Expenses & % to total incomeExhibit 31 : Operating Expenses & % to total income 40%1500 40%1500 37% 35% 40%1500 37% 35% 32% 330 35% 32% 31% 28% 30% 59301 315 33031% 28% 30% 1000 54 59 287 301 315 28%1000 50 54 59 237 287 301 20% 50 50 54 237 287 20% 916 44 50237 500 652 731 818 916 44 10% 500 521 652 731 818 916 10% 500 521 652 731 10% 521 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Salaries Depreciation Otexpenses Op Exp % to total incomeSalaries Depreciation Otexpenses Op Exp % to total income Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 16. Exhibit 32 : ProvisionsExhibit 32 : ProvisionsExhibit 32 : Provisions 800800 600600 244 400 187 244 400 19 21144 187400 16 19 21 111 144 200 260 30815 16 19 67 111200 158 217 260 308 12 15 16 67 111200 90 158 217 260 308 12 1567 0 90 15812 00 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Loan loss provisions Investment provisions Other provisionsLoan loss provisions Investment provisions Other provisionsLoan loss provisions Investment provisions Other provisions Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 34 : Balance Sheet (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 34 : Balance Sheet (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 34 : Balance Sheet (Rs In Cr) Y/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11A AssetsAssetsAssets Cash and Balance with Reserve Bank 2303 2745 2975Cash and Balance with Reserve Bank 2303 2745 2975 Balance with Banks & Money at 2972 1870 574Balance with Banks & Money at 2972 1870 574Balance with Banks & Money at 2972 1870 574 Investments 10736 13956 19696Investments 10736 13956 19696Investments 10736 13956 19696 Advances 20930 23057 26194Advances 20930 23057 26194Advances 20930 23057 26194 Gross Fixed Assets 529 568 794Gross Fixed Assets 529 568 794Gross Fixed Assets 529 568 794 Depreciation 333 366 402Depreciation 333 366 402Depreciation 333 366 402 Net Fixed Assets 196 203 392Net Fixed Assets 196 203 392Net Fixed Assets 196 203 392 WIP 3 1 2WIP 3 1 2WIP 3 1 2 Other Assets 552 715 676Other Assets 552 715 676Other Assets 552 715 676 Total Assets 37693 42547 50508Total Assets 37693 42547 50508Total Assets 37693 42547 50508 Capital and LiabilitiesCapital and LiabilitiesCapital and Liabilities Capital 48 48 48Capital 48 48 48 Reserves and Surplus 2574 2962 3430 Capital 48 48 48 Reserves and Surplus 2574 2962 3430Reserves and Surplus 2574 2962 3430 Deposits 33004 37237 44676Deposits 33004 37237 44676Deposits 33004 37237 44676 Borrowings 997 1100 1105Borrowings 997 1100 1105Borrowings 997 1100 1105 Other Liabilities and Provisions 1070 1199 1249Other Liabilities and Provisions 1070 1199 1249Other Liabilities and Provisions 1070 1199 1249 Total Liabilities 37693 42547 50508Total Liabilities 37693 42547 50508Total Liabilities 37693 42547 50508 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 33 : Net profit & tax %Exhibit 33 : Net profit & tax %Exhibit 33 : Net profit & tax % 34%2000 34%2000 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%33% 33% 33% 33% 33%1500 33% 33% 33% 32% 33%1500 32% 1823 32% 1000 1496 1823 31% 31% 1000 1055 1253 1496 1823 31% 31% 803 1055 1253 149631% 30%500 803 1055 30%500 803 30% 29%0 29%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Net Profit Tax %Net Profit Tax %Net Profit Tax % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E 2784 2695 2722 2749 27772784 2695 2722 2749 2777 1670 2709 2967 3709 37381670 2709 2967 3709 37381670 2709 2967 3709 3738 21624 25741 29121 32962 3732921624 25741 29121 32962 3732921624 25741 29121 32962 37329 33077 39200 47432 56445 6660533077 39200 47432 56445 6660533077 39200 47432 56445 66605 856 934 1009 1090 1177856 934 1009 1090 1177856 934 1009 1090 1177 440 490 541 595 654440 490 541 595 654440 490 541 595 654 415 444 468 495 523415 444 468 495 523415 444 468 495 523 5 13 13 13 135 13 13 13 135 13 13 13 13 694 941 1159 1350 1569694 941 1159 1350 1569694 941 1159 1350 1569 60270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 112553 48 48 48 48 4848 48 48 48 48 4045 4816 5731 6823 8154 48 48 48 48 48 4045 4816 5731 6823 81544045 4816 5731 6823 8154 53347 64221 74817 87162 10023653347 64221 74817 87162 10023653347 64221 74817 87162 100236 1241 1075 1218 1279 13131241 1075 1218 1279 13131241 1075 1218 1279 1313 1589 1583 2069 2410 28011589 1583 2069 2410 28011589 1583 2069 2410 2801 60270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 11255360270 71743 83883 97723 112553
  • 17. Exhibit 35 : Loan Split (%)Exhibit 35 : Loan Split (%)Exhibit 35 : Loan Split (%) FY13A FY14EFY13A FY14EFY13A FY14E 2% Agri9%2% Agri 10%2% Agri9% 9% 2% Agri 10%2% Agri 9% Trade 10% 9% TradeTrade 9% Trade 15% Pers Trade 15% 57% Pers 15% Pers57% Pers 15% 56% Pers 8% 57% SME 8% 56% SME8% SME 8% SME Corp 8% SME Corp CorpCorp Corp Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 37 : DepositsExhibit 37 : DepositsExhibit 37 : Deposits 66605 30%80000 66605 26% 30%80000 56445 66605 26% 47432 56445 26% 21% 60000 47432 19% 21% 19% 20% 60000 39200 47432 19% 21% 19% 18% 20% 33077 3920019% 19% 18% 40000 3307740000 10%10% 20000 10% 2000020000 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Advances Growth %Advances Growth % Source: Perception Research Advances Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 39 : InvestmentExhibit 39 : Investment 37329 20%40000 32962 37329 19% 20%40000 29121 32962 37329 19% 20%40000 25741 29121 3296219% 25741 29121 15%30000 21624 25741 13% 13% 13% 15%30000 21624 13% 13% 13% 10% 10%20000 10% 10%20000 5%10000 5%10000 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Investments Growth %Investments Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 36 : Investment Split (%)Exhibit 36 : Investment Split (%)Exhibit 36 : Investment Split (%) FY13A FY14EFY13A FY14EFY13A FY14E Gov Sec Gov SecGov Sec Gov SecGov Sec Gov Sec Shares35% Shares 34% Shares35% Shares 34% Shares Bonds 55% Bonds 34% Bonds 55% Bonds 55% Bonds JVs 55% 0%0% Bonds 55% 0%0% JVs 9% 0%0% JVs 10% 0%0% JVs Approved 1%9% 0%0% JVs 1% 10% 0%0% Approved 1%9% Approved 1% 10% Approved OthersApproved 1% OthersApproved Others Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 38 : AdvancesExhibit 38 : AdvancesExhibit 38 : Advances 66605 30%80000 66605 26% 30%80000 56445 66605 26% 47432 56445 26% 21% 60000 47432 19% 21% 19% 20% 60000 39200 47432 19% 21% 19% 18% 20% 33077 3920019% 19% 18% 40000 3307740000 10%10% 20000 10% 2000020000 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Advances Growth %Advances Growth % Source: Perception Research Advances Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 40 : BorrowingsExhibit 40 : Borrowings 2801 20%3000 2410 2801 20%3000 2410 2801 13% 20%3000 2069 2410 12% 13% 10% 206912% 13% 10% 2000 1589 1583 5% 10% 2000 1589 1583 5% 3% 0% 2000 3% 0%0% 1000 -10% 1000 -13% -10% 1000 -13% -10% -13% -20%0 -20%0 -20%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Borrowings Growth %Borrowings Growth % Source: Perception Research Borrowings Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 18. Exhibit 41 : RatioExhibit 41 : RatioExhibit 41 : Ratio Y/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11AY/E 31 March FY9A FY10A FY11A FinancialFinancialFinancial EPS 85 106 127EPS 85 106 127EPS 85 106 127 DPS 17 22 26DPS 17 22 26DPS 17 22 26 BV/S 541 621 717BV/S 541 621 717BV/S 541 621 717 Valuation & ProfitabilityValuation & Profitability P/E (X) 6.8 7.3 5.3 Valuation & Profitability P/E (X) 6.8 7.3 5.3P/E (X) 6.8 7.3 5.3 P/BV (X) 1.1 1.2 0.9P/BV (X) 1.1 1.2 0.9P/BV (X) 1.1 1.2 0.9 NIM (%) 3% 3% 3%NIM (%) 3% 3% 3%NIM (%) 3% 3% 3% ROE (%) 15.6% 17.0% 17.7%ROE (%) 15.6% 17.0% 17.7%ROE (%) 15.6% 17.0% 17.7% ROA (%) - 1.49% 1.48%ROA (%) - 1.49% 1.48%ROA (%) - 1.49% 1.48% Dividend yield (%) 8.0% 4.1% 4.0%Dividend yield (%) 8.0% 4.1% 4.0%Dividend yield (%) 8.0% 4.1% 4.0% EfficiencyEfficiencyEfficiency CASA 38% 41% 40%CASA 38% 41% 40%CASA 38% 41% 40% CD (%) 63% 62% 59%CD (%) 63% 62% 59%CD (%) 63% 62% 59% Slippage (%) 1.9% 0.8% 1.1%Slippage (%) 1.9% 0.8% 1.1%Slippage (%) 1.9% 0.8% 1.1% Capital adequacy ratio 13.46% 14.81% 13.30%Capital adequacy ratio 13.46% 14.81% 13.30%Capital adequacy ratio 13.46% 14.81% 13.30% GrowthGrowth Growth in advances (%) - 10% 14%Growth in advances (%) - 10% 14%Growth in advances (%) - 10% 14% Growth in deposits (%) - 13% 20%Growth in deposits (%) - 13% 20%Growth in deposits (%) - 13% 20% Growth in Investment (%) - 30% 41%Growth in Investment (%) - 30% 41%Growth in Investment (%) - 30% 41% Asset QualityAsset QualityAsset Quality GNPA (%) 2.6% 2.0% 1.9%GNPA (%) 2.6% 2.0% 1.9%GNPA (%) 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% NNPA (%) 1.4% 0.3% 0.2%NNPA (%) 1.4% 0.3% 0.2%NNPA (%) 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% GNPA (Rs In Cr) 559 462 519GNPA (Rs In Cr) 559 462 519GNPA (Rs In Cr) 559 462 519 NNPA (Rs In Cr) 288 64 53NNPA (Rs In Cr) 288 64 53NNPA (Rs In Cr) 288 64 53 Provisions coverage % 48.6% 86.1% 89.7%Provisions coverage % 48.6% 86.1% 89.7%Provisions coverage % 48.6% 86.1% 89.7% Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E 166 218 258 309 376166 218 258 309 376166 218 258 309 376 33 50 59 71 8633 50 59 71 8633 50 59 71 86 844 1003 1192 1417 1692844 1003 1192 1417 1692844 1003 1192 1417 1692 7.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.97.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.97.8 5.1 4.3 3.6 2.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%3% 4% 4% 4% 4%3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 19.6% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%19.6% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%19.6% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2% 1.60% 1.76% 1.77% 1.80% 1.89%1.60% 1.76% 1.77% 1.80% 1.89%1.60% 1.76% 1.77% 1.80% 1.89% 5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9%5.0% 4.5% 5.4% 6.5% 7.9% 41% 39% 40% 40% 40%41% 39% 40% 40% 40%41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 62% 61% 63% 65% 66%62% 61% 63% 65% 66%62% 61% 63% 65% 66% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 12.53% 12.34% 13.11% 12.74% 12.61%12.53% 12.34% 13.11% 12.74% 12.61%12.53% 12.34% 13.11% 12.74% 12.61% 26% 19% 21% 19% 18%26% 19% 21% 19% 18%26% 19% 21% 19% 18% 19% 20% 17% 17% 15%19% 20% 17% 17% 15%19% 20% 17% 17% 15% 10% 19% 13% 13% 13%10% 19% 13% 13% 13%10% 19% 13% 13% 13% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 517 644 777 844 903517 644 777 844 903517 644 777 844 903 49 55 70 76 8149 55 70 76 8149 55 70 76 81 90.4% 91.4% 91.0% 91.0% 91.0%90.4% 91.4% 91.0% 91.0% 91.0%90.4% 91.4% 91.0% 91.0% 91.0%
  • 19. Exhibit 42: EPSExhibit 42: EPSExhibit 42: EPS 376376 40%400 309 376 40%400 258 309 31% 31% 25831% 31% 30%300 218 25831% 31% 30%300 166 218 22%166 19% 19% 22% 20%200 166 19% 19% 22% 20%200 19% 10%100 10%100 10%100 0%0 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E EPS Growth %EPS Growth %EPS Growth % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 44 : GNPA, NNPA & PCRExhibit 44 : GNPA, NNPA & PCRExhibit 44 : GNPA, NNPA & PCR 92%1500 91% 92%1500 91% 91% 91% 91% 91%91% 91% 91% 91% 1000 76 81 91% 91% 91% 91% 1000 70 76 81 91% 1000 55 70 76 90% 91% 49 5590% 91% 500 777 844 903 49 90% 500 517 644 777 844 903 49 90% 500 517 644 777 90% 517 90%0 90%0 90%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E GNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (Rs In Cr) Provisions coverage %GNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (Rs In Cr) Provisions coverage % Source: Perception Research GNPA (Rs In Cr) NNPA (Rs In Cr) Provisions coverage % Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 46 : ROE %Exhibit 46 : ROE %Exhibit 46 : ROE % ROE (%)ROE (%)ROE (%) 21.7% 21.7% 22.2%21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 22.2%21.7% 21.7% 21.8% 19.6%19.6%19.6% FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 43 : DSP & Dividend yield %Exhibit 43 : DSP & Dividend yield %Exhibit 43 : DSP & Dividend yield % 86 60%100 86 60%100 7149%80 59 7149%80 50 59 40% 60 80 50 59 40% 60 33 50 29% 60 33 29% 22% 20% 40 33 19% 19% 22% 20% 40 19% 19% 22% 20% 20 5% 6% 8% 20 5% 5% 5% 6% 8% 0%0 20 5% 5% 5% 6% 8% 0%0 0%0 FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E DPS Growth % Dividend yield (%)DPS Growth % Dividend yield (%)DPS Growth % Dividend yield (%) Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 45 : CASA, CD, Slippage & Capital Adequacy ratioExhibit 45 : CASA, CD, Slippage & Capital Adequacy ratioExhibit 45 : CASA, CD, Slippage & Capital Adequacy ratio 15.0%80% 62% 61% 63% 65% 66% 15.0%80% 62% 61% 63% 65% 66% 12.5% 12.3% 13.1% 12.7% 12.6% 15.0%80% 62% 61% 63% 12.5% 12.3% 13.1% 12.7% 12.6% 60% 12.5% 12.3% 12.6% 10.0% 60% 41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 10.0% 60% 41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 10.0% 40%40% 5.0% 40% 5.0% 20% 5.0% 20% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 20% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0%0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0%0% 0.0%0% FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E CASA CD (%) Slippage (%) Capital adequacy ratioCASA CD (%) Slippage (%) Capital adequacy ratio Source: Perception Research CASA CD (%) Slippage (%) Capital adequacy ratio Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research Exhibit 47 : ROA %Exhibit 47 : ROA %Exhibit 47 : ROA % ROA (%)ROA (%) 1.9% ROA (%) 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%1.6% FY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16EFY12A FY13A FY14E FY15E FY16E Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research
  • 20. Quarterly performance Q1 FY14Quarterly performance Q1 FY14Quarterly performance Q1 FY14 Exhibit 48: Quarterly Financials Performance (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 48: Quarterly Financials Performance (Rs In Cr)Exhibit 48: Quarterly Financials Performance (Rs In Cr) Profit & Loss Account Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQProfit & Loss Account Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQProfit & Loss Account Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQ Interest Earned 1476 1627 1624 -0.2%Interest Earned 1476 1627 1624 -0.2%Interest Earned 1476 1627 1624 -0.2% Interest Expended 941 993 969 -2.4%Interest Expended 941 993 969 -2.4%Interest Expended 941 993 969 -2.4% Net Interest Income 536 634 655 3.4%Net Interest Income 536 634 655 3.4%Net Interest Income 536 634 655 3.4% Other Income 93 209 92 -55.9%Other Income 93 209 92 -55.9%Other Income 93 209 92 -55.9% Operating Income 629 842 747 -11.3%Operating Income 629 842 747 -11.3%Operating Income 629 842 747 -11.3% Operating Expenses 214 304 266 -12.5%Operating Expenses 214 304 266 -12.5%Operating Expenses 214 304 266 -12.5% Operating Profit 415 538 481 -10.6%Operating Profit 415 538 481 -10.6%Operating Profit 415 538 481 -10.6% Provisions & Contingencies 50 179 36 -79.7%Provisions & Contingencies 50 179 36 -79.7%Provisions & Contingencies 50 179 36 -79.7% PBT 365 360 445 23.7%PBT 365 360 445 23.7%PBT 365 360 445 23.7% Tax Provision 119 109 137 25.0%Tax Provision 119 109 137 25.0%Tax Provision 119 109 137 25.0% Net Profit 246 250 308 23.1%Net Profit 246 250 308 23.1%Net Profit 246 250 308 23.1% Share Capital 48 48 48 0.0%Share Capital 48 48 48 0.0%Share Capital 48 48 48 0.0% EPS in Rs. 51 52 64 23.1%EPS in Rs. 51 52 64 23.1%EPS in Rs. 51 52 64 23.1% Balance Sheet Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQBalance Sheet Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQBalance Sheet Q1FY13 Q4FY14 Q1FY14 % QOQ Capital & LiabilitiesCapital & LiabilitiesCapital & Liabilities Capital 48 - 48Capital 48 - 48Capital 48 - 48 Reserves & Surplus 4291 - 5124Reserves & Surplus 4291 - 5124Reserves & Surplus 4291 - 5124 Deposits 53117 - 58601Deposits 53117 - 58601Deposits 53117 - 58601 Borrowings 1168 - 758Borrowings 1168 - 758Borrowings 1168 - 758 Other Liabilities & Provisions 1367 - 1216Other Liabilities & Provisions 1367 - 1216Other Liabilities & Provisions 1367 - 1216 Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747 AssetsAssetsAssets Cash & Bank Balance 2357 - 2871Cash & Bank Balance 2357 - 2871Cash & Bank Balance 2357 - 2871 Balance with Banks 1037 - 372Balance with Banks 1037 - 372Balance with Banks 1037 - 372 Investments 22016 - 21734Investments 22016 - 21734Investments 22016 - 21734 Advances 33225 - 39282Advances 33225 - 39282Advances 33225 - 39282 Fixed Assets 424 - 475Fixed Assets 424 - 475Fixed Assets 424 - 475 Other Assets 933 - 1013Other Assets 933 - 1013Other Assets 933 - 1013 Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747Total 59992 - 65747 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research % QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY 0.2% 10.0% 4836 6137 26.9%0.2% 10.0% 4836 6137 26.9%0.2% 10.0% 4836 6137 26.9% 2.4% 3.1% 2997 3821 27.5%2.4% 3.1% 2997 3821 27.5%2.4% 3.1% 2997 3821 27.5% 3.4% 22.3% 1838 2316 26.0%3.4% 22.3% 1838 2316 26.0%3.4% 22.3% 1838 2316 26.0% 55.9% -1.2% 334 484 44.8%55.9% -1.2% 334 484 44.8%55.9% -1.2% 334 484 44.8% 11.3% 18.8% 2172 2800 28.9%11.3% 18.8% 2172 2800 28.9%11.3% 18.8% 2172 2800 28.9% 12.5% 24.5% 802 989 23.3%12.5% 24.5% 802 989 23.3%12.5% 24.5% 802 989 23.3% 10.6% 15.9% 1370 1811 32.1%10.6% 15.9% 1370 1811 32.1%10.6% 15.9% 1370 1811 32.1% 79.7% -28.1% 169 284 67.9%79.7% -28.1% 169 284 67.9%79.7% -28.1% 169 284 67.9% 23.7% 21.9% 1201 1527 27.1%23.7% 21.9% 1201 1527 27.1%23.7% 21.9% 1201 1527 27.1% 25.0% 15.3% 398 471 18.5%25.0% 15.3% 398 471 18.5%25.0% 15.3% 398 471 18.5% 23.1% 25.1% 803 1055 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 803 1055 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 803 1055 31.4% 0.0% 0.0% 48 48 0.0%0.0% 0.0% 48 48 0.0%0.0% 0.0% 48 48 0.0% 23.1% 25.1% 166 218 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 166 218 31.4%23.1% 25.1% 166 218 31.4% % QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY% QOQ % SPLY FY12A FY13A % YOY - 0.0% 48 48 0.0%- 0.0% 48 48 0.0%- 0.0% 48 48 0.0% - 19.4% 4045 4816 19.1%- 19.4% 4045 4816 19.1%- 19.4% 4045 4816 19.1% - 10.3% 53347 64221 20.4%- 10.3% 53347 64221 20.4%- 10.3% 53347 64221 20.4% - -35.2% 1241 1075 -13.4%- -35.2% 1241 1075 -13.4%- -35.2% 1241 1075 -13.4% - -11.0% 1588 1583 -0.3%- -11.0% 1588 1583 -0.3%- -11.0% 1588 1583 -0.3% - 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0% - 21.8% 2784 2695 -3.2%- 21.8% 2784 2695 -3.2%- 21.8% 2784 2695 -3.2% - -64.1% 1670 2709 62.2%- -64.1% 1670 2709 62.2%- -64.1% 1670 2709 62.2% - -1.3% 21624 25741 19.0%- -1.3% 21624 25741 19.0%- -1.3% 21624 25741 19.0% - 18.2% 33077 39200 18.5%- 18.2% 33077 39200 18.5%- 18.2% 33077 39200 18.5% - 11.9% 420 456 8.5%- 11.9% 420 456 8.5%- 11.9% 420 456 8.5% - 8.6% 693 941 35.8%- 8.6% 693 941 35.8%- 8.6% 693 941 35.8% - 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%- 9.6% 60269 71743 19.0%
  • 21. Exhibit 49: Quarterly Geographical Break-up (Rs In Cr) &(%)Exhibit 49: Quarterly Geographical Break-up (Rs In Cr) &(%)Exhibit 49: Quarterly Geographical Break-up (Rs In Cr) &(%) Advances sector wise break-upAdvances sector wise break-upAdvances sector wise break-up CorporateCorporateCorporate SMESMESME PersonalPersonalPersonal TradeTradeTrade AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture OthersOthersOthers Advances break-up within J&K StateAdvances break-up within J&K StateAdvances break-up within J&K State CorporateCorporateCorporate SMESMESME PersonalPersonalPersonal TradeTradeTrade AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture OthersOthersOthers Advances break-up outside of J&K StateAdvances break-up outside of J&K StateAdvances break-up outside of J&K State CorporateCorporateCorporate SMESMESME PersonalPersonalPersonal TradeTradeTrade AgricultureAgricultureAgriculture OthersOthersOthers Other break-up Q1FY14 Within J&K stateOther break-up Q1FY14 Within J&K stateOther break-up Q1FY14 Within J&K state Deposits 39681Deposits 39681Deposits 39681 Gross Advances Within J&K 16940Gross Advances Within J&K 16940Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 Gross Profit (Rs Cr) 362Gross Profit (Rs Cr) 362Gross Profit (Rs Cr) 362 NIMsNIMsNIMs No. of Branches 582No. of Branches 582No. of Branches 582 No. of ATMs 591No. of ATMs 591No. of ATMs 591 balance sheet details 1QFY14 4QFY13balance sheet details 1QFY14 4QFY13balance sheet details 1QFY14 4QFY13 Deposits With in J&K 39681 40867Deposits With in J&K 39681 40867Deposits With in J&K 39681 40867 Rest of India 18920 23354Rest of India 18920 23354Rest of India 18920 23354 Whole Bank 58601 64221Whole Bank 58601 64221Whole Bank 58601 64221 Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 15839Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 15839Gross Advances Within J&K 16940 15839 Rest of India 23294 24293Rest of India 23294 24293Rest of India 23294 24293 Whole Bank 40234 40132Whole Bank 40234 40132Whole Bank 40234 40132 Source: Perception ResearchSource: Perception ResearchSource: Perception Research 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 56% 57% 56%56% 57% 56%56% 57% 56% 8% 8% 8%8% 8% 8%8% 8% 8% 16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15% 9% 9% 9%9% 9% 9%9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10%10% 9% 10%10% 9% 10% 1% 2% 2%1% 2% 2%1% 2% 2% 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 18% 19% 20%18% 19% 20%18% 19% 20% 16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15%16% 15% 15% 35% 32% 32%35% 32% 32%35% 32% 32% 16% 16% 15%16% 16% 15%16% 16% 15% 15% 16% 17%15% 16% 17%15% 16% 17% 1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1% 1QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY141QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 81% 82% 83%81% 82% 83%81% 82% 83% 3% 3% 3%3% 3% 3%3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%4% 3% 3%4% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5%4% 5% 5%4% 5% 5% 7% 5% 5%7% 5% 5%7% 5% 5% 1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1%1% 2% 1% Within J&K state Rest of IndiaWithin J&K state Rest of IndiaWithin J&K state Rest of India 39681 68% 18920 32%39681 68% 18920 32%39681 68% 18920 32% 16940 42% 23294 58%16940 42% 23294 58%16940 42% 23294 58% 362 75% 119 25%362 75% 119 25%362 75% 119 25% - 6% - 3%- 6% - 3%- 6% - 3% 582 84% 113 16%582 84% 113 16%582 84% 113 16% 591 89% 70 11%591 89% 70 11%591 89% 70 11% 4QFY13 1QFY13 % QOQ % SPLY4QFY13 1QFY13 % QOQ % SPLY4QFY13 1QFY13 % QOQ % SPLY 40867 34920 13.6 -2.940867 34920 13.6 -2.940867 34920 13.6 -2.9 23354 18197 4 -1923354 18197 4 -1923354 18197 4 -19 64221 53117 10.3 -8.864221 53117 10.3 -8.864221 53117 10.3 -8.8 15839 13525 25.2 715839 13525 25.2 715839 13525 25.2 7 24293 20544 13.4 -4.124293 20544 13.4 -4.124293 20544 13.4 -4.1 40132 34069 18.1 0.340132 34069 18.1 0.340132 34069 18.1 0.3