2. Acquirer: Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB)
On August 7, 2023, Campbell’s announced to acquire Sovos Brands, Inc. for $2.7 billion
• Campbell Soup Co. engages in manufacture and marketing of
convenience food products such as soup, simple meals, snacks,
and healthy beverages
• Founded in 1869, currently a focused brand powerhouse with
two divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks
HQ: Camden, New Jersey, US
Employees: 14500
LTM Sales: $9.36B
Enterprise Value: $18.29B
Share Price: 45.15
EV/EBITDA 10.4
Target: Sovos Brands, Inc. (NYSE: SOVO)
HQ: Louisville, Colorado, US
Employees: 690
LTM Sales: $0.94B
Enterprise Value: $2.45B
Share Price: 18.02
EV/EBITDA 17.1
• Sovos Brands Inc. is a consumer-packaged food
company that manufactures and distributes consumer
food products in the United States
• Founded in 2016, operate in two segments: Dinner and
Sauces, and Breakfast and Snacks
• On Aug 7, 2023 CPB and SOVO announced that they have entered into an agreement for Campbell to acquire SOVO
• All SOVO’ shares were acquired for $23 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $2.7 billion
• On Oct 23, 2023 CPB announced the acquisition was delayed until next year, as FDA asked for more details
Transaction Details
Transaction Overview
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
3. Transaction Rationale
Industry Trends
Strengthening in Meals & Beverages Division
Synergies
• Consolidation in the food industry has been facilitated by a large
number of M&A in a variety of sectors
• The food and beverage industry is one of the largest industries
in the US
• Packaged food and drink was estimated to be worth over US$1
trillion in 2022. The Food market is expected to grow annually
by 5.60% (CAGR 2023-2028). The Beverages Industry is
growing at a CAGR of 12.7% in the forecast period (2023-2030)
• Expected annualized cost synergies reaching approximately
$50 million over the next two years
• Campbell’s supply chain excellence and scale are expected to
drive operating synergies for Sovos Brands, while improving
scale efficiency of Campbell’s core operations
• Expected to provide considerable earnings growth
contribution to the division
• Sovos Brands portfolio strengthens and diversifies Campbell’s
Meals & Beverages division
• Rao, a Leader in High-Growth Premium Italian Sauces
strengthens the Campbell’s Meals & Beverages division by
complementing a one-of-a-kind, high growth food company
focused on taste-led products across a portfolio of premium
brands
Expansion in Snacks Division
• By acquiring premium frozen meal brand Michael Angelo’s,
Campbell will also beef up the frozen food portfolio it already
owns under its Pepperidge Farm’s brand
• Popular yogurt brand noosa is terrific, well-run business, with
great products and strong profitability
This Acquisition will make Campbell’s be one of the most dependable, growth-oriented names in food
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
4. Valuation Range
Valuation Summary SOVO Valuation
The Rao’s brand is now 3x bigger than it was the same period just
three years ago and analysts see plenty of room for further growth
Analyst reports: Views on Sovos generally positive with mostly
outperform ratings (target prices range from $20 to $24)
Comps: Fairly priced relative to comparable companies
Precedents: Median EV/EBITDA LTM multiple for precedent
transactions higher than that of Sovos
DCF: Undervalued relative to base case discounted cash flow valuation
methodology
Analyzing DCF, precedent transactions and analyst report results show that Sovos is undervalued and analysts
see the company’s brands as well positioned to benefit from changing consumer trends
$8.59
$19.57
$15.65
$12.74
$20.00
$28.37
$28.95
$32.76
$20.58
$24.00
$ 0 $ 5 $ 10 $ 15 $ 20 $ 25 $ 30 $ 35 $ 40
Trading Comparables Valuation
Precedent Transactions Valuation
DCF Valuation
52 Week Trading Range
Analyst Targets Price
Current Price $18.02 Offer Price $23.00
Source: Company Filings
5. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
A discounted cash flow analysis implies a valuation of $24.80 per share without synergies and $29.54 per share
including possible synergies
Historical Period
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5
EBITDA $71.2 $104.8 $152.3 $149.7 $156.0 $171.0 $183.1 $197.7 $213.5
Depreciation & Amortization ($33.8) ($37.8) ($38.9) ($12.0) ($11.5) ($12.4) ($13.4) ($14.5) ($15.7)
EBIT $37.4 $67.0 $113.4 $137.7 $144.5 $158.6 $169.6 $183.2 $197.9
% margin 6.7% 9.3% 12.9% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Taxes (9.7) (17.4) (29.5) 35.8 (37.6) (41.2) (44.1) (47.6) (51.4)
EBIAT $27.7 $49.5 $83.9 $101.9 $106.9 $117.3 $125.5 $135.6 $146.4
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 33.8 37.8 38.9 12.0 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7
Less: Capital Expenditures (12.7) (3.7) (14.2) (12.8) (14.6) (14.7) (15.9) (17.1) (18.5)
Less: Inc./(Dec.) in Net Working Capital 1.3 8.9 (30.4) (44.3) (5.8) (6.3) (6.8) (7.4) (8.0)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $98.0 $108.8 $116.3 $125.5 $135.5
Projection Period
Terminal Value Calculation
Terminal Year EBITDA (2028E) $213.5
Exit Multiple 16.0x
Terminal Value $3,416.3
Present Value of Terminal Value $2,369.7
Enterprise Value $2,835.8
Less: Total Debt (498.7)
Less: Preferred Stock –
Less: Noncontrolling Interest –
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7
Implied Equity Value $2,509.8
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2
Implied Share Price (Excl. Synergies) $24.80
Annual Synergies $25.0-50.0
Post-Tax Savings $15.5-38.0
Perpetual Value of Synergies $500.6
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
10Y Base Case Free Cash Flow Projections
Share Price Build & PV of Synergies
Enterprise Value $2,835.8
Less: Total Debt (498.7)
Less: Preferred Stock –
Less: Noncontrolling Interest –
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7
Implied Equity Value $2,509.8
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2
Implied Share Price (Excl. Synergies) $24.80
Annual Synergies $25.0-50.0
Post-Tax Savings $15.5-38.0
Perpetual Value of Synergies $500.6
Synergies / Share $4.7
Implied Share Price (Incl. Synergies) $29.54
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Price with Synergies
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Mergent Online
6. Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
Implied Share Price
Exit Multiple
24.8 14.0x 15.0x 16.0x 17.0x 18.0x
5.6% 24.16 25.77 27.37 28.98 30.59
6.6% 22.99 24.52 26.05 27.59 29.12
7.6% 21.87 23.34 24.80 26.26 27.73
8.6% 20.82 22.22 23.62 25.01 26.41
9.6% 19.82 21.16 22.49 23.83 25.16
WACC
Implied Share Price
Downside Base Upside
$15.65 - $17.61 $22.22 - $27.58 $29.50 - $32.76
WACC Build Up Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario Analysis
Our base case scenario shows that Sovos
is undervalued at its current price of
$18.02. Our estimates were based upon
analyst reports, consensus estimates and
management guidance
By sensitizing the terminal multiple, margins WACC and growth rates, a valuation range of $15.65 to $32.76 was
developed
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, Yahoo Finance,
7. Comparable Companies Analysis
Current % of Enterprise Value / Price /
Share 52-wk. Equity Enterprise LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E
Company Price High Value Value Sales Sales Sales EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA EBIT EBIT EBIT EPS EPS EPS
Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) $16.09 81% $1,420 $2,994 2.1x 2.0x 2.0x 24.3x 15.9x 15.3x 150.3x 19.4x 18.5x 159.3x 28.5x 18.0x
The Simply Good Foods Company $38.85 97% 1,531 4,166 3.4x 3.3x 3.1x 18.4x 15.9x 15.6x 21.5x 17.6x 17.1x 30.4x 21.5x 20.5x
Lancaster Colony Corporation $23.75 82% 1,852 4,056 2.9x 2.8x 2.7x 13.8x 12.5x 11.9x 18.0x 16.3x 15.4x 40.6x 29.9x 24.0x
BellRing Brands Inc $45.69 121% 4,754 5,706 3.8x 3.5x 3.1x 19.1x 16.7x 15.6x 21.1x 18.5x 17.3x 32.7x 25.8x 25.1x
Vital Farms. Inc $12.39 68% 511 427 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 2.3x 11.3x 8.7x 17.0x 18.1x 13.1x 33.9x 30.2x 26.0x
The Hain Celestial Group Inc $11.11 44% 1,062 1,971 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 12.2x 10.9x 10.7x 21.1x 17.1x 16.4x 35.1x 20.4x 20.9x
Mean 24.6
$ 82% 1,855.0
$ 3,220.1
$ 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x 15.0x 13.9x 12.9x 41.5x 17.8x 16.3x 55.3x 26.0x 22.4x
Median 19.9
$ 81% 1,475.5
$ 3,525.1
$ 2.5x 2.4x 2.4x 16.1x 14.2x 13.6x 21.1x 17.9x 16.8x 34.5x 27.1x 22.4x
High 45.7
$ 121% 4,754.3
$ 5,706.1
$ 3.8x 3.5x 3.1x 24.3x 16.7x 15.6x 150.3x 19.4x 18.5x 159.3x 30.2x 26.0x
Low 11.1
$ 44% 511.3
$ 427.0
$ 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 2.3x 10.9x 8.7x 17.0x 16.3x 13.1x 30.4x 20.4x 18.0x
By applying sales and EBITDA multiples, the implied share price for Sovos is within range of $6.1 to $32.6
Commentary:
As mentioned, implied Price range is in between $6.1 to
$32.6 per share. Lower range is further away from the
median due to Vital Farms. Inc.’ s estimated sales
multiples are unusually low comparing with peers.
Multiple Metric (Aug 06, 2023)
EV/EBITDA (2024E) $156.0 $10.9 - $16.7 $13.6 - $22.5
EV/EBITDA (2025E) $171.0 $8.7 - $15.6 $11.4 - $23.2
EV/Sales (LTM) $941.0 $1.0 - $3.8 $6.1 - $32.2
EV/Sales (2024E) $1,044.0 $0.9 - $3.5 $6.3 - $32.6
EV/Sales (2025E) $1,130.0 $0.8 - $3.1 $5.6 - $31.4
Implied Price
Multiple Range Implied Price Per Share
Inclusion Criteria
• Similar business model
• Market Cap
• Growth Profile
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
8. Price range per share implied from precedent transactions for TargetCo is $23 to $24
Precedent Transaction Analysis and Implied Valuation
The analysis is based on
relevant precedent transactions
based on the following
screens:
1. Sector – Food and Kindred
Products excluding
beverages, dairy and bakery
2. Transactions within last 5
years
3. Transaction value of at least
~USD 1 billion
4. Target’s location in the US
5. Qualitative judgement on
operating characteristics of
Target
Transaction Screening
Based on the transactions screened we derive an EV/LTM sales range of 3.2x (mean)
and 3.5 (median) and EV/LTM EBITDA range of 17.6x (mean) and 18.2x (median).
Based on the premium paid over market price analysis, the mean premium paid are as
follows: 1 day prior (9%), 7 days prior (14%), 30 days prior (22%)
Summary of Precedent Analysis:
Sovos Brands, Inc.
Precedent Transactions Analysis
($ in millions)
Enterprise Value / LTM Equity Value / Premiums Paid
Date Transaction Purchase Equity Enterprise LTM LTM LTM EBITDA LTM Days Prior to Unaffected
Announced Acquirer Target Type Consideration Value Value Sales EBITDA EBIT Margin Net Income 1 7 30
2023-09-11 The J. M. Smucker
Company (NYSE:SJM)
Hostess Brands, Inc. Public/
Public
Cash/Stock $4,611 $5,532 4.0x 18.2x 23.5x 22% 27.1x 19% 18% 43%
2021-08-09 Cargill, Incorporated;
Wayne Farms, LLC
Sanderson Farms, Inc. Private/
Public
Cash 4,619 4,404 1.0x 4.2x 10.1x 24% 15.7x 11% 10% 13%
2018-06-27 Conagra Brands, Inc.
(NYSE:CAG)
Pinnacle Foods Inc. Public/
Public
Cash/Stock 8,174 10,904 3.5x 16.5x 19.3x 21% 14.4x 0% 0% 3%
2017-12-18 The Hershey Company
(NYSE:HSY)
Amplify Snack Brands,
Inc.
Public/
Public
Cash 935 1,527 4.1x 18.5x 22.4x 22% 89.8x 9% 9% 10%
2017-12-18 Campbell Soup
Company (NYSE:CPB)
Snyder's-Lance, Inc. Public/
Public
Cash 4,922 6,114 2.7x 21.7x 33.4x 13% NA 7% 28% 36%
2017-09-19 Post Holdings, Inc.
(NYSE:POST)
Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Public/
Public
Cash 1,540 1,741 4.2x 26.9x 34.3x 15% 79.0x 6% 13% 19%
2017-04-25 Tyson Foods, Inc.
(NYSE:TSN)
AdvancePierre Foods
Holdings, Inc.
Public/
Public
Cash 3,374 4,350 2.8x 17.0x 22.5x 16% 23.0x 10% 19% 31%
Mean 3.2x 17.6x 23.6x 19% 41.5x 9% 14% 22%
Median 3.5x 18.2x 22.5x 21% 25.1x 9% 13% 19%
High 4.2x 26.9x 34.3x 24% 89.8x 19% 28% 43%
Low 1.0x 4.2x 10.1x 13% 14.4x 0% 0% 3%
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com
Implied Price
Multiple Metric (Aug 07, 2023)
EV/LTM EBITDA $177 17.6x - 18.2x $28 - $29
EV/LTM Sales $941 3.2x - 3.5x $26 - $29
Premium - 1 Day prior $18.02 9% - 9% $20 - $20
Premium - 7 Days prior $18 0.1x - 0.1x $20 - $20
Premium - 30 Days prior $19.12 19% - 22% $23 - $23
Mean $23 - $24
Median $23 - $23
Multiple Range Implied Price Per Share
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, Yahoo Finance
9. Merger Model Analysis
A merger between Campbell’s and Sovos would allow them to realize cost synergies reaching $50M over the next
two years
Annual EPS Accretion / (Dilution) Sensitivity Analysis - Premium Paid
Year
Offer Price Premium 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
$20.72 15% 1.5% 6.0% 13.8% 16.5% 17.8%
$21.62 20% 0.7% 5.2% 12.9% 15.6% 17.0%
$22.53 25% (0.1%) 4.4% 12.0% 14.7% 16.1%
$23.43 30% (0.9%) 3.6% 11.2% 13.9% 15.2%
$24.33 35% (1.7%) 2.8% 10.4% 13.0% 14.4%
tion / (Dilution) Analysis
bell's Standalone Diluted EPS $2.35 $3.05 $3.41 $3.57 $3.67 $3.78
Standalone Diluted EPS $0.67 $0.92 $1.17 $1.31 $1.43 $1.55
rma Combined Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.21 $4.35
tion / (Dilution) - $ ($0.22) $0.10 $0.37 $0.48 $0.54 $0.58
tion / (Dilution) - % (9.2%) 3.2% 10.8% 13.4% 14.7% 15.3%
ive / Dilutive Dilutive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accretive
even Pre-Tax Synergies / (Cushion) $6.2 ($48.7) ($159.5) ($205.7) ($231.7) ($247.1)
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis
Campbell's Standalone Diluted EPS $2.35 $3.05 $3.41 $3.57 $3.
Sovos Standalone Diluted EPS $0.67 $0.92 $1.17 $1.31 $1.
Pro Forma Combined Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.
Accretion / (Dilution) - $ ($0.22) $0.10 $0.37 $0.48 $0.
Accretion / (Dilution) - % (9.2%) 3.2% 10.8% 13.4% 14.
Accretive / Dilutive Dilutive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accret
Breakeven Pre-Tax Synergies / (Cushion) $6.2 ($48.7) ($159.5) ($205.7) ($231
The EPS would be accretive from 2024, i.e. second year post-merger.
This is owing to the high upfront integration cost of $90 million for the post-merger project.
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Mergent Online
10. Since Jun 2023:
CPB’s price decreased
continuously
Aug 7, 2023:
• CPB and SOVO announced they have
entered into an agreement for CPB to
acquire SOVO
• Shares of Campbell closed at $44.34,
down $0.81
Oct 28, 2023:
CPB announced
the acquisition was
delayed to the next
year
Annotated Stock Chart
For Campbell, the market did not react positively; Sovos investors however were positive about the transaction
Market Reaction
Source: Yahoo Finance
11. Synergies
Market Share
The Market
Our Evaluation
• Expected annualized cost synergies reaching approximately $50 million over the
next two years
• Improving scale efficiency of Campbell’s core operations
• The transaction will make Campbell become one of the most dependable, growth-
oriented names in food
• The Sovos Brands portfolio strengthens and diversifies CPB’s Meals & Beverages
division and paired with Campbell’s faster-growing and differentiated Snacks division
• The food and beverage industry is one of the largest industries in the US
• Packaged food and drink was estimated to be worth over US$1 trillion in 2022. The
Food market is expected to grow annually by 5.60% (CAGR 2023-2028). The
Beverages Industry is growing at a CAGR of 12.7% in the forecast period (2023-2030)
Summary/Takeaways
• Despite the 27.8% premium paid by Campbell, our merger model recognizes that
the deal will be accretive after the deal closes
• So long as Campbell can provide details to FDA and regulators do not interfere,
we believe this transaction can generate significant long-term value for both
companies in the future