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Campbell’s Proposed
$2.7 Billion Acquisition
of Sovos Brands
Acquirer: Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB)
On August 7, 2023, Campbell’s announced to acquire Sovos Brands, Inc. for $2.7 billion
• Campbell Soup Co. engages in manufacture and marketing of
convenience food products such as soup, simple meals, snacks,
and healthy beverages
• Founded in 1869, currently a focused brand powerhouse with
two divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks
HQ: Camden, New Jersey, US
Employees: 14500
LTM Sales: $9.36B
Enterprise Value: $18.29B
Share Price: 45.15
EV/EBITDA 10.4
Target: Sovos Brands, Inc. (NYSE: SOVO)
HQ: Louisville, Colorado, US
Employees: 690
LTM Sales: $0.94B
Enterprise Value: $2.45B
Share Price: 18.02
EV/EBITDA 17.1
• Sovos Brands Inc. is a consumer-packaged food
company that manufactures and distributes consumer
food products in the United States
• Founded in 2016, operate in two segments: Dinner and
Sauces, and Breakfast and Snacks
• On Aug 7, 2023 CPB and SOVO announced that they have entered into an agreement for Campbell to acquire SOVO
• All SOVO’ shares were acquired for $23 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $2.7 billion
• On Oct 23, 2023 CPB announced the acquisition was delayed until next year, as FDA asked for more details
Transaction Details
Transaction Overview
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
Transaction Rationale
Industry Trends
Strengthening in Meals & Beverages Division
Synergies
• Consolidation in the food industry has been facilitated by a large
number of M&A in a variety of sectors
• The food and beverage industry is one of the largest industries
in the US
• Packaged food and drink was estimated to be worth over US$1
trillion in 2022. The Food market is expected to grow annually
by 5.60% (CAGR 2023-2028). The Beverages Industry is
growing at a CAGR of 12.7% in the forecast period (2023-2030)
• Expected annualized cost synergies reaching approximately
$50 million over the next two years
• Campbell’s supply chain excellence and scale are expected to
drive operating synergies for Sovos Brands, while improving
scale efficiency of Campbell’s core operations
• Expected to provide considerable earnings growth
contribution to the division
• Sovos Brands portfolio strengthens and diversifies Campbell’s
Meals & Beverages division
• Rao, a Leader in High-Growth Premium Italian Sauces
strengthens the Campbell’s Meals & Beverages division by
complementing a one-of-a-kind, high growth food company
focused on taste-led products across a portfolio of premium
brands
Expansion in Snacks Division
• By acquiring premium frozen meal brand Michael Angelo’s,
Campbell will also beef up the frozen food portfolio it already
owns under its Pepperidge Farm’s brand
• Popular yogurt brand noosa is terrific, well-run business, with
great products and strong profitability
This Acquisition will make Campbell’s be one of the most dependable, growth-oriented names in food
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
Valuation Range
Valuation Summary SOVO Valuation
 The Rao’s brand is now 3x bigger than it was the same period just
three years ago and analysts see plenty of room for further growth
 Analyst reports: Views on Sovos generally positive with mostly
outperform ratings (target prices range from $20 to $24)
 Comps: Fairly priced relative to comparable companies
 Precedents: Median EV/EBITDA LTM multiple for precedent
transactions higher than that of Sovos
 DCF: Undervalued relative to base case discounted cash flow valuation
methodology
Analyzing DCF, precedent transactions and analyst report results show that Sovos is undervalued and analysts
see the company’s brands as well positioned to benefit from changing consumer trends
$8.59
$19.57
$15.65
$12.74
$20.00
$28.37
$28.95
$32.76
$20.58
$24.00
$ 0 $ 5 $ 10 $ 15 $ 20 $ 25 $ 30 $ 35 $ 40
Trading Comparables Valuation
Precedent Transactions Valuation
DCF Valuation
52 Week Trading Range
Analyst Targets Price
Current Price $18.02 Offer Price $23.00
Source: Company Filings
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
A discounted cash flow analysis implies a valuation of $24.80 per share without synergies and $29.54 per share
including possible synergies
Historical Period
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5
EBITDA $71.2 $104.8 $152.3 $149.7 $156.0 $171.0 $183.1 $197.7 $213.5
Depreciation & Amortization ($33.8) ($37.8) ($38.9) ($12.0) ($11.5) ($12.4) ($13.4) ($14.5) ($15.7)
EBIT $37.4 $67.0 $113.4 $137.7 $144.5 $158.6 $169.6 $183.2 $197.9
% margin 6.7% 9.3% 12.9% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Taxes (9.7) (17.4) (29.5) 35.8 (37.6) (41.2) (44.1) (47.6) (51.4)
EBIAT $27.7 $49.5 $83.9 $101.9 $106.9 $117.3 $125.5 $135.6 $146.4
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 33.8 37.8 38.9 12.0 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7
Less: Capital Expenditures (12.7) (3.7) (14.2) (12.8) (14.6) (14.7) (15.9) (17.1) (18.5)
Less: Inc./(Dec.) in Net Working Capital 1.3 8.9 (30.4) (44.3) (5.8) (6.3) (6.8) (7.4) (8.0)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $98.0 $108.8 $116.3 $125.5 $135.5
Projection Period
Terminal Value Calculation
Terminal Year EBITDA (2028E) $213.5
Exit Multiple 16.0x
Terminal Value $3,416.3
Present Value of Terminal Value $2,369.7
Enterprise Value $2,835.8
Less: Total Debt (498.7)
Less: Preferred Stock –
Less: Noncontrolling Interest –
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7
Implied Equity Value $2,509.8
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2
Implied Share Price (Excl. Synergies) $24.80
Annual Synergies $25.0-50.0
Post-Tax Savings $15.5-38.0
Perpetual Value of Synergies $500.6
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
10Y Base Case Free Cash Flow Projections
Share Price Build & PV of Synergies
Enterprise Value $2,835.8
Less: Total Debt (498.7)
Less: Preferred Stock –
Less: Noncontrolling Interest –
Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7
Implied Equity Value $2,509.8
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2
Implied Share Price (Excl. Synergies) $24.80
Annual Synergies $25.0-50.0
Post-Tax Savings $15.5-38.0
Perpetual Value of Synergies $500.6
Synergies / Share $4.7
Implied Share Price (Incl. Synergies) $29.54
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
Price with Synergies
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Mergent Online
Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
Implied Share Price
Exit Multiple
24.8 14.0x 15.0x 16.0x 17.0x 18.0x
5.6% 24.16 25.77 27.37 28.98 30.59
6.6% 22.99 24.52 26.05 27.59 29.12
7.6% 21.87 23.34 24.80 26.26 27.73
8.6% 20.82 22.22 23.62 25.01 26.41
9.6% 19.82 21.16 22.49 23.83 25.16
WACC
Implied Share Price
Downside Base Upside
$15.65 - $17.61 $22.22 - $27.58 $29.50 - $32.76
WACC Build Up Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario Analysis
Our base case scenario shows that Sovos
is undervalued at its current price of
$18.02. Our estimates were based upon
analyst reports, consensus estimates and
management guidance
By sensitizing the terminal multiple, margins WACC and growth rates, a valuation range of $15.65 to $32.76 was
developed
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
WACC Calculation
Target Capital Structure
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5%
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5%
Cost of Debt
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0%
Tax Rate (2) 26.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8%
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5%
Levered Beta 0.67
Size Premium (5) –
Cost of Equity 8.5%
WACC 7.6%
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, Yahoo Finance,
Comparable Companies Analysis
Current % of Enterprise Value / Price /
Share 52-wk. Equity Enterprise LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E
Company Price High Value Value Sales Sales Sales EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA EBIT EBIT EBIT EPS EPS EPS
Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) $16.09 81% $1,420 $2,994 2.1x 2.0x 2.0x 24.3x 15.9x 15.3x 150.3x 19.4x 18.5x 159.3x 28.5x 18.0x
The Simply Good Foods Company $38.85 97% 1,531 4,166 3.4x 3.3x 3.1x 18.4x 15.9x 15.6x 21.5x 17.6x 17.1x 30.4x 21.5x 20.5x
Lancaster Colony Corporation $23.75 82% 1,852 4,056 2.9x 2.8x 2.7x 13.8x 12.5x 11.9x 18.0x 16.3x 15.4x 40.6x 29.9x 24.0x
BellRing Brands Inc $45.69 121% 4,754 5,706 3.8x 3.5x 3.1x 19.1x 16.7x 15.6x 21.1x 18.5x 17.3x 32.7x 25.8x 25.1x
Vital Farms. Inc $12.39 68% 511 427 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 2.3x 11.3x 8.7x 17.0x 18.1x 13.1x 33.9x 30.2x 26.0x
The Hain Celestial Group Inc $11.11 44% 1,062 1,971 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 12.2x 10.9x 10.7x 21.1x 17.1x 16.4x 35.1x 20.4x 20.9x
Mean 24.6
$ 82% 1,855.0
$ 3,220.1
$ 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x 15.0x 13.9x 12.9x 41.5x 17.8x 16.3x 55.3x 26.0x 22.4x
Median 19.9
$ 81% 1,475.5
$ 3,525.1
$ 2.5x 2.4x 2.4x 16.1x 14.2x 13.6x 21.1x 17.9x 16.8x 34.5x 27.1x 22.4x
High 45.7
$ 121% 4,754.3
$ 5,706.1
$ 3.8x 3.5x 3.1x 24.3x 16.7x 15.6x 150.3x 19.4x 18.5x 159.3x 30.2x 26.0x
Low 11.1
$ 44% 511.3
$ 427.0
$ 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 2.3x 10.9x 8.7x 17.0x 16.3x 13.1x 30.4x 20.4x 18.0x
By applying sales and EBITDA multiples, the implied share price for Sovos is within range of $6.1 to $32.6
Commentary:
As mentioned, implied Price range is in between $6.1 to
$32.6 per share. Lower range is further away from the
median due to Vital Farms. Inc.’ s estimated sales
multiples are unusually low comparing with peers.
Multiple Metric (Aug 06, 2023)
EV/EBITDA (2024E) $156.0 $10.9 - $16.7 $13.6 - $22.5
EV/EBITDA (2025E) $171.0 $8.7 - $15.6 $11.4 - $23.2
EV/Sales (LTM) $941.0 $1.0 - $3.8 $6.1 - $32.2
EV/Sales (2024E) $1,044.0 $0.9 - $3.5 $6.3 - $32.6
EV/Sales (2025E) $1,130.0 $0.8 - $3.1 $5.6 - $31.4
Implied Price
Multiple Range Implied Price Per Share
Inclusion Criteria
• Similar business model
• Market Cap
• Growth Profile
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
Price range per share implied from precedent transactions for TargetCo is $23 to $24
Precedent Transaction Analysis and Implied Valuation
The analysis is based on
relevant precedent transactions
based on the following
screens:
1. Sector – Food and Kindred
Products excluding
beverages, dairy and bakery
2. Transactions within last 5
years
3. Transaction value of at least
~USD 1 billion
4. Target’s location in the US
5. Qualitative judgement on
operating characteristics of
Target
Transaction Screening
Based on the transactions screened we derive an EV/LTM sales range of 3.2x (mean)
and 3.5 (median) and EV/LTM EBITDA range of 17.6x (mean) and 18.2x (median).
Based on the premium paid over market price analysis, the mean premium paid are as
follows: 1 day prior (9%), 7 days prior (14%), 30 days prior (22%)
Summary of Precedent Analysis:
Sovos Brands, Inc.
Precedent Transactions Analysis
($ in millions)
Enterprise Value / LTM Equity Value / Premiums Paid
Date Transaction Purchase Equity Enterprise LTM LTM LTM EBITDA LTM Days Prior to Unaffected
Announced Acquirer Target Type Consideration Value Value Sales EBITDA EBIT Margin Net Income 1 7 30
2023-09-11 The J. M. Smucker
Company (NYSE:SJM)
Hostess Brands, Inc. Public/
Public
Cash/Stock $4,611 $5,532 4.0x 18.2x 23.5x 22% 27.1x 19% 18% 43%
2021-08-09 Cargill, Incorporated;
Wayne Farms, LLC
Sanderson Farms, Inc. Private/
Public
Cash 4,619 4,404 1.0x 4.2x 10.1x 24% 15.7x 11% 10% 13%
2018-06-27 Conagra Brands, Inc.
(NYSE:CAG)
Pinnacle Foods Inc. Public/
Public
Cash/Stock 8,174 10,904 3.5x 16.5x 19.3x 21% 14.4x 0% 0% 3%
2017-12-18 The Hershey Company
(NYSE:HSY)
Amplify Snack Brands,
Inc.
Public/
Public
Cash 935 1,527 4.1x 18.5x 22.4x 22% 89.8x 9% 9% 10%
2017-12-18 Campbell Soup
Company (NYSE:CPB)
Snyder's-Lance, Inc. Public/
Public
Cash 4,922 6,114 2.7x 21.7x 33.4x 13% NA 7% 28% 36%
2017-09-19 Post Holdings, Inc.
(NYSE:POST)
Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Public/
Public
Cash 1,540 1,741 4.2x 26.9x 34.3x 15% 79.0x 6% 13% 19%
2017-04-25 Tyson Foods, Inc.
(NYSE:TSN)
AdvancePierre Foods
Holdings, Inc.
Public/
Public
Cash 3,374 4,350 2.8x 17.0x 22.5x 16% 23.0x 10% 19% 31%
Mean 3.2x 17.6x 23.6x 19% 41.5x 9% 14% 22%
Median 3.5x 18.2x 22.5x 21% 25.1x 9% 13% 19%
High 4.2x 26.9x 34.3x 24% 89.8x 19% 28% 43%
Low 1.0x 4.2x 10.1x 13% 14.4x 0% 0% 3%
Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com
Implied Price
Multiple Metric (Aug 07, 2023)
EV/LTM EBITDA $177 17.6x - 18.2x $28 - $29
EV/LTM Sales $941 3.2x - 3.5x $26 - $29
Premium - 1 Day prior $18.02 9% - 9% $20 - $20
Premium - 7 Days prior $18 0.1x - 0.1x $20 - $20
Premium - 30 Days prior $19.12 19% - 22% $23 - $23
Mean $23 - $24
Median $23 - $23
Multiple Range Implied Price Per Share
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, Yahoo Finance
Merger Model Analysis
A merger between Campbell’s and Sovos would allow them to realize cost synergies reaching $50M over the next
two years
Annual EPS Accretion / (Dilution) Sensitivity Analysis - Premium Paid
Year
Offer Price Premium 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
$20.72 15% 1.5% 6.0% 13.8% 16.5% 17.8%
$21.62 20% 0.7% 5.2% 12.9% 15.6% 17.0%
$22.53 25% (0.1%) 4.4% 12.0% 14.7% 16.1%
$23.43 30% (0.9%) 3.6% 11.2% 13.9% 15.2%
$24.33 35% (1.7%) 2.8% 10.4% 13.0% 14.4%
tion / (Dilution) Analysis
bell's Standalone Diluted EPS $2.35 $3.05 $3.41 $3.57 $3.67 $3.78
Standalone Diluted EPS $0.67 $0.92 $1.17 $1.31 $1.43 $1.55
rma Combined Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.21 $4.35
tion / (Dilution) - $ ($0.22) $0.10 $0.37 $0.48 $0.54 $0.58
tion / (Dilution) - % (9.2%) 3.2% 10.8% 13.4% 14.7% 15.3%
ive / Dilutive Dilutive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accretive
even Pre-Tax Synergies / (Cushion) $6.2 ($48.7) ($159.5) ($205.7) ($231.7) ($247.1)
Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis
Campbell's Standalone Diluted EPS $2.35 $3.05 $3.41 $3.57 $3.
Sovos Standalone Diluted EPS $0.67 $0.92 $1.17 $1.31 $1.
Pro Forma Combined Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.
Accretion / (Dilution) - $ ($0.22) $0.10 $0.37 $0.48 $0.
Accretion / (Dilution) - % (9.2%) 3.2% 10.8% 13.4% 14.
Accretive / Dilutive Dilutive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accret
Breakeven Pre-Tax Synergies / (Cushion) $6.2 ($48.7) ($159.5) ($205.7) ($231
The EPS would be accretive from 2024, i.e. second year post-merger.
This is owing to the high upfront integration cost of $90 million for the post-merger project.
Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Mergent Online
Since Jun 2023:
CPB’s price decreased
continuously
Aug 7, 2023:
• CPB and SOVO announced they have
entered into an agreement for CPB to
acquire SOVO
• Shares of Campbell closed at $44.34,
down $0.81
Oct 28, 2023:
CPB announced
the acquisition was
delayed to the next
year
Annotated Stock Chart
For Campbell, the market did not react positively; Sovos investors however were positive about the transaction
Market Reaction
Source: Yahoo Finance
Synergies
Market Share
The Market
Our Evaluation
• Expected annualized cost synergies reaching approximately $50 million over the
next two years
• Improving scale efficiency of Campbell’s core operations
• The transaction will make Campbell become one of the most dependable, growth-
oriented names in food
• The Sovos Brands portfolio strengthens and diversifies CPB’s Meals & Beverages
division and paired with Campbell’s faster-growing and differentiated Snacks division
• The food and beverage industry is one of the largest industries in the US
• Packaged food and drink was estimated to be worth over US$1 trillion in 2022. The
Food market is expected to grow annually by 5.60% (CAGR 2023-2028). The
Beverages Industry is growing at a CAGR of 12.7% in the forecast period (2023-2030)
Summary/Takeaways
• Despite the 27.8% premium paid by Campbell, our merger model recognizes that
the deal will be accretive after the deal closes
• So long as Campbell can provide details to FDA and regulators do not interfere,
we believe this transaction can generate significant long-term value for both
companies in the future
Appendix
DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (1)
WACC Calculation Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta
Target Capital Structure Predicted Market Market Debt/ Marginal Unlevered
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5% Company Levered Beta (6) Value of Debt Value of Equity Equity Tax Rate Beta
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5% Utz Brands, Inc. 0.81 $1,051.6 $1,288.5 81.6% 21.0% 0.49
The Simply Good Foods Company 0.74 367.4 3,813.7 9.6% 21.0% 0.69
Lancaster Colony Corporation 0.22 30.0 5,320.6 0.6% 26.5% 0.22
Cost of Debt BellRing Brands, Inc. 0.90 918.8 4,754.3 19.3% 22.4% 0.78
Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0% Vital Farms, Inc. 0.60 9.2 511.3 1.8% 29.2% 0.59
Tax Rate (2) 26.0% The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. 0.92 929.3 1,061.7 87.5% 26.8% 0.56
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4%
Mean 0.70 33.4% 0.56
Median 0.78 14.5% 0.58
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8% ValueCo Relevered Beta
Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5% Mean Target Target
Levered Beta 0.67 Unlevered Debt/ Marginal Relevered
Size Premium (5) – Beta Equity Tax Rate Beta
Cost of Equity 8.5% Relevered Beta 0.56 27.3% 26.0% 0.67
WACC Sensitivity Analysis
WACC 7.6%
0.1 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
1.5% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
11.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8%
21.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7%
31.5% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7%
41.5% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.7%
(1) Comparable Corporate Yield Curve Rate
(2) Forecasted Tax Rate
(3) Interpolated yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury, sourced from Ycharts
(4) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook
(5) Mid-cap Decile size premium based on market capitalization, per Ibbotson
(6) Sourced from Bloomberg
Pre-tax Cost of Debt
Debt-to-Total
Capitalization
DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (2)
Historical Period
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5
EBITDA $71.2 $104.8 $152.3 $149.7 $156.0 $171.0 $183.1 $197.7 $213.5
Depreciation & Amortization ($33.8) ($37.8) ($38.9) ($12.0) ($11.5) ($12.4) ($13.4) ($14.5) ($15.7)
EBIT $37.4 $67.0 $113.4 $137.7 $144.5 $158.6 $169.6 $183.2 $197.9
% margin 6.7% 9.3% 12.9% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Taxes (9.7) (17.4) (29.5) 35.8 (37.6) (41.2) (44.1) (47.6) (51.4)
EBIAT $27.7 $49.5 $83.9 $101.9 $106.9 $117.3 $125.5 $135.6 $146.4
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 33.8 37.8 38.9 12.0 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7
Less: Capital Expenditures (12.7) (3.7) (14.2) (12.8) (14.6) (14.7) (15.9) (17.1) (18.5)
Less: Inc./(Dec.) in Net Working Capital 1.3 8.9 (30.4) (44.3) (5.8) (6.3) (6.8) (7.4) (8.0)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow $98.0 $108.8 $116.3 $125.5 $135.5
Projection Period
Enterprise Value Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Cumulative Present Value of FCF $466.1 Enterprise Value $2,835.8 Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2028E) $135.5
Less: Total Debt (498.7) WACC 7.6%
Terminal Value Less: Preferred Stock - Terminal Value $3,416.3
Terminal Year EBITDA (2028E) $213.5 Less: Noncontrolling Interest -
Exit Multiple 16.0x Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.48%
Terminal Value $3,416.3
Discount Factor 0.69 Implied Equity Value $2,509.8 Implied EV/EBITDA
Present Value of Terminal Value $2,369.7 Enterprise Value $2,835.8
% of Enterprise Value 83.6% Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2 LTM EBITDA 149.7
Enterprise Value $2,835.8 Implied Share Price $24.80 Implied EV/EBITDA 18.9x
Implied Equity Value and Share Price
DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (3)
Historical Period
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5
Cost of Goods Sold (373.3) (498.1) (629.8) (665.0) (720.0) (775.0) (836.0) (902.9) (975.1)
Current Assets
Accounts Receivable 43.7 61.0 70.7 84.0 91.8 99.4 107.3 115.9 125.2
Inventories 26.7 47.1 51.6 88.0 95.3 102.6 110.6 119.5 129.0
Prepaid Expenses and Other 4.6 4.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.2 10.0
Total Current Assets $75.1 $112.5 $129.0 $179.0 $194.4 $209.8 $226.5 $244.6 $264.2
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 21.0 31.2 37.3 47.0 50.9 54.8 59.1 63.8 68.9
Accrued Liabilities 37.6 65.1 51.8 58.0 63.7 68.9 74.4 80.4 86.8
Other Current Liabilities - - - - - - - - -
Total Current Liabilities $58.6 $96.3 $89.0 $105.0 $114.6 $123.7 $133.5 $144.2 $155.8
Net Working Capital $16.4 $16.2 $40.0 $74.0 $79.8 $86.1 $93.0 $100.4 $108.4
% sales 2.9% 2.3% 4.6% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
(Increase) / Decrease in NWC $0.3 ($23.8) ($34.0) ($5.8) ($6.3) ($6.8) ($7.4) ($8.0)
Assumptions
Current Assets
Days Sales Outstanding 28.5 31.0 29.4 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.1
Days Inventory Held (26.1) (34.5) (29.9) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3)
Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales) 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Current Liabilities
Days Payable Outstanding (20.5) (22.8) (21.6) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8)
Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) 6.7% 9.1% 5.9% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1%
Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - %
Projection Period
DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (4)
Enterprise Value Implied Equity Value
Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
2,835.8 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 2,509.8 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x
6.6% 2,807 2,885 2,962 3,040 3,118 6.6% 2,481 2,559 2,636 2,714 2,792
7.1% 2,747 2,822 2,898 2,974 3,050 7.1% 2,421 2,497 2,572 2,648 2,724
7.6% 2,688 2,762 $2,836 2,910 2,984 7.6% 2,362 2,436 $2,510 2,584 2,658
8.1% 2,630 2,703 2,775 2,847 2,920 8.1% 2,304 2,377 2,449 2,521 2,594
8.6% 2,575 2,645 2,716 2,787 2,857 8.6% 2,249 2,319 2,390 2,461 2,531
Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple Exit Multiple
0.0 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 18.9 6.5x 7.0x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x
6.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 6.6% 9.9x 10.5x 19.8x 20.3x 20.8x
7.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 7.1% 9.7x 10.2x 19.4x 19.9x 20.4x
7.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 7.6% 9.5x 10.0x 18.9x 19.4x 19.9x
8.1% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 8.1% 9.4x 9.8x 18.5x 19.0x 19.5x
8.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7% 8.6% 9.2x 9.6x 18.1x 18.6x 19.1x
PV of Terminal Value % of Enterprise Value
Exit Multiple
0.8 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x
6.6% 82.9% 83.4% 83.8% 84.2% 84.6%
7.1% 82.8% 83.3% 83.7% 84.1% 84.5%
7.6% 82.7% 83.1% 83.6% 84.0% 84.4%
8.1% 82.5% 83.0% 83.4% 83.9% 84.3%
8.6% 82.4% 82.9% 83.3% 83.7% 84.1%
WACC
WACC
WACC
WACC
WACC
Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA
Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (1)
Purchase Price
Public / Private Target 1
Offer Price per Share $23.00
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2
Equity Purchase Price $2,327.6
Plus: Total Debt 495.0
Plus: Preferred Securities -
Plus: Noncontrolling Interest -
Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents (214.0)
Enterprise Value $2,608.6
Goodwill Calculation
Equity Purchase Price $2,327.6
Less: ValueCo Net Identifiable Assets (531.0)
Total Allocable Purchase Premium $1,796.6
Allocation %
Less: Tangible Asset Write-Up 10% (179.7)
Less: Intangible Asset Write-Up 10% (179.7)
Plus: Deferred Tax Liability $136.5
Goodwill Created in Transaction $1,573.8
Write-Up Depreciation & Amortization Assumptions
Annual
Years Amount
Tangible Asset Write-Up Depreciation Period 15 12.0
Intangible Asset Write-Up Amortization Period 15 12.0
Deferred Income Taxes (9.1)
Sovos Brands Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
Basic Shares Outstanding 101.200
Plus: Shares from In-the-Money Options -
Less: Shares Repurchased -
Net New Shares from Options -
Plus: Shares from Convertible Securities -
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.200
Options/Warrants
Number of Exercise In-the-Money
Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds
N/A - - - -
N/A - - - -
N/A - - - -
N/A - - - -
N/A - - - -
Total - - -
Campbell's Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
Basic Shares Outstanding 299.000
Plus: Shares from In-the-Money Options 3.222
Less: Shares Repurchased -
Net New Shares from Options 3.222
Plus: Shares from Convertible Securities -
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 302.222
Options/Warrants
Number of Exercise In-the-Money
Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds
Stock Options 0.833 $44.77 - -
RSUs 2.274 - 2.274 -
TSR RSUs 0.948 - 0.948 -
N/A - - - -
N/A - - - -
Total 4.055 3.222 -
Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (2)
Financing Structures
Structure
1 2 3 4 5
Sources of Funds Structure 1 Structure 2 Structure 3 Structure 4 Status Quo
Revolving Credit Facility Size - - - - -
Revolving Credit Facility Draw - - - - -
Term Loan A - - - - -
Term Loan B - - - - -
Term Loan C - - - - -
Delayed Draw Term Loan 1,760.7 1,173.8 586.9 - 2,000.0
Senior Notes - - - - -
Senior Subordinated Notes - - - - -
Issuance of Common Stock 586.9 1,173.8 1,760.7 2,347.6 347.6
Cash on Hand - - - - -
Other - - - - -
- - - - - -
Total Sources of Funds $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6
Uses of Funds
Equity Purchase Price $2,327.6 $2,327.6 $2,327.6 $2,327.6 $2,327.6
Repay Existing Bank Debt - - - - -
Tender / Call Premiums - - - - -
Debt Financing Fees 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Transaction and Other Fees - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
Total Uses of Funds $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6
Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (3)
Pro Forma Combined Financial Summary
Pro Forma 1 2 3 4 5
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Sales $10,312.0 $10,971.8 $11,703.1 $12,015.5 $12,339.8 $12,676.7
% growth 9.2% 6.4% 6.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
Gross Profit $3,207.0 $3,527.8 $3,787.1 $3,875.5 $3,979.6 $4,087.7
% margin 31.1% 32.2% 32.4% 32.3% 32.3% 32.2%
EBITDA $1,859.7 $2,030.2 $2,211.4 $2,291.4 $2,350.0 $2,410.7
% margin 18.0% 18.5% 18.9% 19.1% 19.0% 19.0%
Interest Expense 370.5 330.1 229.3 188.8 174.9 174.9
Net Income $662.3 $975.8 $1,170.2 $1,255.3 $1,306.2 $1,349.8
% margin 6.4% 8.9% 10.0% 10.4% 10.6% 10.6%
Fully Diluted Shares 310.1 310.1 310.1 310.1 310.1 310.1
Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.21 $4.35
Cash Flow from Operating Activities 1,369.1 1,627.9 1,708.1 1,768.4 1,821.8
Less: Capital Expenditures (461.4) (416.5) (415.3) (424.9) (434.9)
Free Cash Flow $907.7 $1,211.5 $1,292.8 $1,343.5 $1,386.9
Senior Secured Debt 2,975.0 2,064.3 852.8 - - -
Senior Debt 6,988.0 6,077.3 4,865.8 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0
Total Debt 6,993.0 6,082.3 4,870.8 4,018.0 4,018.0 4,018.0
Cash & Equivalents 403.0 400.0 400.0 840.0 2,183.5 3,570.4
Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (4)
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Operating Activities
Net Income $975.8 $1,170.2 $1,255.3 $1,306.2 $1,349.8
Plus: Depreciation 398.7 424.8 434.4 444.3 454.5
Plus: Depreciation on Tangible Assets Write-up 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Plus: Amortization on Intangible Assets Write-up 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Plus: Amortization of Financing Fees 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Changes in Working Capital Items
(Inc.) / Dec. in Accounts Receivable (78.2) (46.5) (21.3) (22.3) (23.2)
(Inc.) / Dec. in Inventories (63.7) (90.2) (40.5) (39.3) (40.7)
(Inc.) / Dec. in Prepaid and Other Current Assets (4.2) (5.0) (2.2) (2.2) (2.3)
Inc. / (Dec.) in Accounts Payable 61.5 88.5 37.4 35.8 36.9
Inc. / (Dec.) in Accrued Liabilities 41.8 46.1 19.6 20.3 21.1
Inc. / (Dec.) in Other Current Liabilities 19.8 22.3 7.7 7.8 8.0
(Inc.) / Dec. in Net Working Capital (23.1) 15.2 0.7 0.2 (0.3)
Inc. / (Dec.) in Deferred Taxes (9.1) (9.1) (9.1) (9.1) (9.1)
Cash Flow from Operating Activities $1,369.1 $1,627.9 $1,708.1 $1,768.4 $1,821.8
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures (461.4) (416.5) (415.3) (424.9) (434.9)
Other Investing Activities - - - - -
Cash Flow from Investing Activities ($461.4) ($416.5) ($415.3) ($424.9) ($434.9)
Financing Activities
Revolving Credit Facility - - - - -
Sovos Brands Term Loan (475.0) - - - -
Campbell's Term Loan (435.7) (64.3) - - -
Delayed Draw Term Loan - (1,147.2) (852.8) - -
Campbell's Existing Senior Notes - - - - -
Other Debt - - - - -
Dividends - - - - -
Equity Issuance / (Repurchase) - - - - -
Cash Flow from Financing Activities ($910.7) ($1,211.5) ($852.8) - -
Excess Cash for the Period ($3.0) $0.0 $440.0 $1,343.5 $1,386.9
Beginning Cash Balance 403.0 400.0 400.0 840.0 2,183.5
Ending Cash Balance $400.0 $400.0 $840.0 $2,183.5 $3,570.4
Capital Expenditures (% of sales) 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
Standalone Projection Period
Campbell's Sovos Brands Adjustments Pro Forma Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2023 2023 + - 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Cash and Cash Equivalents $189.0 $214.0 0.0 $403.0 $400.0 $400.0 $840.0 $2,183.5 $3,570.4
Accounts Receivable 528.0 84.0 612.0 690.2 736.7 758.0 780.2 803.5
Inventories 1,280.0 88.0 1,368.0 1,431.7 1,521.9 1,562.4 1,601.7 1,642.4
Prepaids and Other Current Assets 64.0 7.0 71.0 75.2 80.2 82.4 84.6 86.9
Total Current Assets $2,061.0 $393.0 $2,454.0 $2,597.1 $2,738.8 $3,242.7 $4,650.0 $6,103.1
Property, Plant and Equipment, net 2,398.0 78.0 179.7 2,655.7 2,706.4 2,686.1 2,655.0 2,623.6 2,591.9
Goodwill 3,973.0 - 1,573.8 0.0 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8
Intangible Assets 3,134.0 - 179.7 3,313.7 3,301.7 3,289.7 3,277.7 3,265.8 3,253.8
Other Assets - 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0
Deferred Financing Fees 492.0 - 20.0 512.0 509.1 506.3 503.4 500.6 497.7
Total Assets $12,058.0 $1,194.0 $15,205.1 $15,384.2 $15,490.7 $15,948.6 $17,309.7 $18,716.4
Accounts Payable 1,306.0 47.0 1,353.0 1,414.5 1,502.9 1,540.3 1,576.1 1,613.0
Accrued Liabilities 592.0 58.0 650.0 691.8 737.9 757.4 777.7 798.8
Other Current Liabilities 324.0 - 324.0 343.8 366.1 373.8 381.6 389.7
Total Current Liabilities $2,222.0 $105.0 $2,327.0 $2,450.0 $2,606.9 $2,671.5 $2,735.5 $2,801.5
Revolving Credit Facility - - - - - - - -
Sovos Brands Term Loan - 475.0 0.0 475.0 - - - - -
Campbell's Term Loan 500.0 - 500.0 64.3 - - - -
Delayed Draw Term Loan - - 2,000.0 2,000.0 2,000.0 852.8 - - -
Campbell's Senior Notes 4,013.0 - 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0
Sovos Brands Senior Notes - - 0.0 - - - - - -
Other Debt (15.0) 20.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Deferred Income Taxes 1,067.0 - 136.5 1,203.5 1,194.4 1,185.3 1,176.2 1,167.1 1,158.0
Other Long-Term Liabilities 608.0 63.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 671.0
Total Liabilities $8,395.0 $663.0 $11,194.5 $10,397.8 $9,334.1 $8,536.8 $8,591.6 $8,648.5
Noncontrolling Interest 2.0 - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Shareholders' Equity 3,661.0 531.0 347.6 (531.0) 4,008.6 4,984.4 6,154.6 7,409.9 8,716.1 10,065.9
Total Shareholders' Equity $3,663.0 $531.0 $4,010.6 $4,986.4 $6,156.6 $7,411.9 $8,718.1 $10,067.9
Total Liabilities and Equity $12,058.0 $1,194.0 $15,205.1 $15,384.2 $15,490.7 $15,948.6 $17,309.7 $18,716.4
Balance Check 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Net Working Capital (350.0) 74.0 (276.0) (252.9) (268.1) (268.8) (269.0) (268.7)
(Increase) / Decrease in Net Working Capital (23.1) 15.2 0.7 0.2 (0.3)
Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (5)

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Investment Banking and Capital Markets- Ivey MBA 2024

  • 1. Campbell’s Proposed $2.7 Billion Acquisition of Sovos Brands
  • 2. Acquirer: Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) On August 7, 2023, Campbell’s announced to acquire Sovos Brands, Inc. for $2.7 billion • Campbell Soup Co. engages in manufacture and marketing of convenience food products such as soup, simple meals, snacks, and healthy beverages • Founded in 1869, currently a focused brand powerhouse with two divisions: Meals & Beverages and Snacks HQ: Camden, New Jersey, US Employees: 14500 LTM Sales: $9.36B Enterprise Value: $18.29B Share Price: 45.15 EV/EBITDA 10.4 Target: Sovos Brands, Inc. (NYSE: SOVO) HQ: Louisville, Colorado, US Employees: 690 LTM Sales: $0.94B Enterprise Value: $2.45B Share Price: 18.02 EV/EBITDA 17.1 • Sovos Brands Inc. is a consumer-packaged food company that manufactures and distributes consumer food products in the United States • Founded in 2016, operate in two segments: Dinner and Sauces, and Breakfast and Snacks • On Aug 7, 2023 CPB and SOVO announced that they have entered into an agreement for Campbell to acquire SOVO • All SOVO’ shares were acquired for $23 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of approximately $2.7 billion • On Oct 23, 2023 CPB announced the acquisition was delayed until next year, as FDA asked for more details Transaction Details Transaction Overview Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
  • 3. Transaction Rationale Industry Trends Strengthening in Meals & Beverages Division Synergies • Consolidation in the food industry has been facilitated by a large number of M&A in a variety of sectors • The food and beverage industry is one of the largest industries in the US • Packaged food and drink was estimated to be worth over US$1 trillion in 2022. The Food market is expected to grow annually by 5.60% (CAGR 2023-2028). The Beverages Industry is growing at a CAGR of 12.7% in the forecast period (2023-2030) • Expected annualized cost synergies reaching approximately $50 million over the next two years • Campbell’s supply chain excellence and scale are expected to drive operating synergies for Sovos Brands, while improving scale efficiency of Campbell’s core operations • Expected to provide considerable earnings growth contribution to the division • Sovos Brands portfolio strengthens and diversifies Campbell’s Meals & Beverages division • Rao, a Leader in High-Growth Premium Italian Sauces strengthens the Campbell’s Meals & Beverages division by complementing a one-of-a-kind, high growth food company focused on taste-led products across a portfolio of premium brands Expansion in Snacks Division • By acquiring premium frozen meal brand Michael Angelo’s, Campbell will also beef up the frozen food portfolio it already owns under its Pepperidge Farm’s brand • Popular yogurt brand noosa is terrific, well-run business, with great products and strong profitability This Acquisition will make Campbell’s be one of the most dependable, growth-oriented names in food Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
  • 4. Valuation Range Valuation Summary SOVO Valuation  The Rao’s brand is now 3x bigger than it was the same period just three years ago and analysts see plenty of room for further growth  Analyst reports: Views on Sovos generally positive with mostly outperform ratings (target prices range from $20 to $24)  Comps: Fairly priced relative to comparable companies  Precedents: Median EV/EBITDA LTM multiple for precedent transactions higher than that of Sovos  DCF: Undervalued relative to base case discounted cash flow valuation methodology Analyzing DCF, precedent transactions and analyst report results show that Sovos is undervalued and analysts see the company’s brands as well positioned to benefit from changing consumer trends $8.59 $19.57 $15.65 $12.74 $20.00 $28.37 $28.95 $32.76 $20.58 $24.00 $ 0 $ 5 $ 10 $ 15 $ 20 $ 25 $ 30 $ 35 $ 40 Trading Comparables Valuation Precedent Transactions Valuation DCF Valuation 52 Week Trading Range Analyst Targets Price Current Price $18.02 Offer Price $23.00 Source: Company Filings
  • 5. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis A discounted cash flow analysis implies a valuation of $24.80 per share without synergies and $29.54 per share including possible synergies Historical Period 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5 EBITDA $71.2 $104.8 $152.3 $149.7 $156.0 $171.0 $183.1 $197.7 $213.5 Depreciation & Amortization ($33.8) ($37.8) ($38.9) ($12.0) ($11.5) ($12.4) ($13.4) ($14.5) ($15.7) EBIT $37.4 $67.0 $113.4 $137.7 $144.5 $158.6 $169.6 $183.2 $197.9 % margin 6.7% 9.3% 12.9% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% Taxes (9.7) (17.4) (29.5) 35.8 (37.6) (41.2) (44.1) (47.6) (51.4) EBIAT $27.7 $49.5 $83.9 $101.9 $106.9 $117.3 $125.5 $135.6 $146.4 Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 33.8 37.8 38.9 12.0 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7 Less: Capital Expenditures (12.7) (3.7) (14.2) (12.8) (14.6) (14.7) (15.9) (17.1) (18.5) Less: Inc./(Dec.) in Net Working Capital 1.3 8.9 (30.4) (44.3) (5.8) (6.3) (6.8) (7.4) (8.0) Unlevered Free Cash Flow $98.0 $108.8 $116.3 $125.5 $135.5 Projection Period Terminal Value Calculation Terminal Year EBITDA (2028E) $213.5 Exit Multiple 16.0x Terminal Value $3,416.3 Present Value of Terminal Value $2,369.7 Enterprise Value $2,835.8 Less: Total Debt (498.7) Less: Preferred Stock – Less: Noncontrolling Interest – Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7 Implied Equity Value $2,509.8 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2 Implied Share Price (Excl. Synergies) $24.80 Annual Synergies $25.0-50.0 Post-Tax Savings $15.5-38.0 Perpetual Value of Synergies $500.6 Implied Equity Value and Share Price 10Y Base Case Free Cash Flow Projections Share Price Build & PV of Synergies Enterprise Value $2,835.8 Less: Total Debt (498.7) Less: Preferred Stock – Less: Noncontrolling Interest – Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7 Implied Equity Value $2,509.8 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2 Implied Share Price (Excl. Synergies) $24.80 Annual Synergies $25.0-50.0 Post-Tax Savings $15.5-38.0 Perpetual Value of Synergies $500.6 Synergies / Share $4.7 Implied Share Price (Incl. Synergies) $29.54 Implied Equity Value and Share Price Price with Synergies Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Mergent Online
  • 6. Discounted Cash Flow Sensitivity WACC Calculation Target Capital Structure Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5% Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5% Cost of Debt Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0% Tax Rate (2) 26.0% After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4% Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8% Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5% Levered Beta 0.67 Size Premium (5) – Cost of Equity 8.5% WACC 7.6% Implied Share Price Exit Multiple 24.8 14.0x 15.0x 16.0x 17.0x 18.0x 5.6% 24.16 25.77 27.37 28.98 30.59 6.6% 22.99 24.52 26.05 27.59 29.12 7.6% 21.87 23.34 24.80 26.26 27.73 8.6% 20.82 22.22 23.62 25.01 26.41 9.6% 19.82 21.16 22.49 23.83 25.16 WACC Implied Share Price Downside Base Upside $15.65 - $17.61 $22.22 - $27.58 $29.50 - $32.76 WACC Build Up Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Analysis Our base case scenario shows that Sovos is undervalued at its current price of $18.02. Our estimates were based upon analyst reports, consensus estimates and management guidance By sensitizing the terminal multiple, margins WACC and growth rates, a valuation range of $15.65 to $32.76 was developed WACC Calculation Target Capital Structure Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5% Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5% Cost of Debt Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0% Tax Rate (2) 26.0% After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4% Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8% Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5% Levered Beta 0.67 Size Premium (5) – Cost of Equity 8.5% WACC 7.6% WACC Calculation Target Capital Structure Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5% Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5% Cost of Debt Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0% Tax Rate (2) 26.0% After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4% Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8% Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5% Levered Beta 0.67 Size Premium (5) – Cost of Equity 8.5% WACC 7.6% WACC Calculation Target Capital Structure Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5% Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5% Cost of Debt Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0% Tax Rate (2) 26.0% After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4% Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8% Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5% Levered Beta 0.67 Size Premium (5) – Cost of Equity 8.5% WACC 7.6% Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, Yahoo Finance,
  • 7. Comparable Companies Analysis Current % of Enterprise Value / Price / Share 52-wk. Equity Enterprise LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E LTM 2024E 2025E Company Price High Value Value Sales Sales Sales EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA EBIT EBIT EBIT EPS EPS EPS Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) $16.09 81% $1,420 $2,994 2.1x 2.0x 2.0x 24.3x 15.9x 15.3x 150.3x 19.4x 18.5x 159.3x 28.5x 18.0x The Simply Good Foods Company $38.85 97% 1,531 4,166 3.4x 3.3x 3.1x 18.4x 15.9x 15.6x 21.5x 17.6x 17.1x 30.4x 21.5x 20.5x Lancaster Colony Corporation $23.75 82% 1,852 4,056 2.9x 2.8x 2.7x 13.8x 12.5x 11.9x 18.0x 16.3x 15.4x 40.6x 29.9x 24.0x BellRing Brands Inc $45.69 121% 4,754 5,706 3.8x 3.5x 3.1x 19.1x 16.7x 15.6x 21.1x 18.5x 17.3x 32.7x 25.8x 25.1x Vital Farms. Inc $12.39 68% 511 427 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 2.3x 11.3x 8.7x 17.0x 18.1x 13.1x 33.9x 30.2x 26.0x The Hain Celestial Group Inc $11.11 44% 1,062 1,971 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 12.2x 10.9x 10.7x 21.1x 17.1x 16.4x 35.1x 20.4x 20.9x Mean 24.6 $ 82% 1,855.0 $ 3,220.1 $ 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x 15.0x 13.9x 12.9x 41.5x 17.8x 16.3x 55.3x 26.0x 22.4x Median 19.9 $ 81% 1,475.5 $ 3,525.1 $ 2.5x 2.4x 2.4x 16.1x 14.2x 13.6x 21.1x 17.9x 16.8x 34.5x 27.1x 22.4x High 45.7 $ 121% 4,754.3 $ 5,706.1 $ 3.8x 3.5x 3.1x 24.3x 16.7x 15.6x 150.3x 19.4x 18.5x 159.3x 30.2x 26.0x Low 11.1 $ 44% 511.3 $ 427.0 $ 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 2.3x 10.9x 8.7x 17.0x 16.3x 13.1x 30.4x 20.4x 18.0x By applying sales and EBITDA multiples, the implied share price for Sovos is within range of $6.1 to $32.6 Commentary: As mentioned, implied Price range is in between $6.1 to $32.6 per share. Lower range is further away from the median due to Vital Farms. Inc.’ s estimated sales multiples are unusually low comparing with peers. Multiple Metric (Aug 06, 2023) EV/EBITDA (2024E) $156.0 $10.9 - $16.7 $13.6 - $22.5 EV/EBITDA (2025E) $171.0 $8.7 - $15.6 $11.4 - $23.2 EV/Sales (LTM) $941.0 $1.0 - $3.8 $6.1 - $32.2 EV/Sales (2024E) $1,044.0 $0.9 - $3.5 $6.3 - $32.6 EV/Sales (2025E) $1,130.0 $0.8 - $3.1 $5.6 - $31.4 Implied Price Multiple Range Implied Price Per Share Inclusion Criteria • Similar business model • Market Cap • Growth Profile Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Yahoo Finance
  • 8. Price range per share implied from precedent transactions for TargetCo is $23 to $24 Precedent Transaction Analysis and Implied Valuation The analysis is based on relevant precedent transactions based on the following screens: 1. Sector – Food and Kindred Products excluding beverages, dairy and bakery 2. Transactions within last 5 years 3. Transaction value of at least ~USD 1 billion 4. Target’s location in the US 5. Qualitative judgement on operating characteristics of Target Transaction Screening Based on the transactions screened we derive an EV/LTM sales range of 3.2x (mean) and 3.5 (median) and EV/LTM EBITDA range of 17.6x (mean) and 18.2x (median). Based on the premium paid over market price analysis, the mean premium paid are as follows: 1 day prior (9%), 7 days prior (14%), 30 days prior (22%) Summary of Precedent Analysis: Sovos Brands, Inc. Precedent Transactions Analysis ($ in millions) Enterprise Value / LTM Equity Value / Premiums Paid Date Transaction Purchase Equity Enterprise LTM LTM LTM EBITDA LTM Days Prior to Unaffected Announced Acquirer Target Type Consideration Value Value Sales EBITDA EBIT Margin Net Income 1 7 30 2023-09-11 The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) Hostess Brands, Inc. Public/ Public Cash/Stock $4,611 $5,532 4.0x 18.2x 23.5x 22% 27.1x 19% 18% 43% 2021-08-09 Cargill, Incorporated; Wayne Farms, LLC Sanderson Farms, Inc. Private/ Public Cash 4,619 4,404 1.0x 4.2x 10.1x 24% 15.7x 11% 10% 13% 2018-06-27 Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Pinnacle Foods Inc. Public/ Public Cash/Stock 8,174 10,904 3.5x 16.5x 19.3x 21% 14.4x 0% 0% 3% 2017-12-18 The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) Amplify Snack Brands, Inc. Public/ Public Cash 935 1,527 4.1x 18.5x 22.4x 22% 89.8x 9% 9% 10% 2017-12-18 Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) Snyder's-Lance, Inc. Public/ Public Cash 4,922 6,114 2.7x 21.7x 33.4x 13% NA 7% 28% 36% 2017-09-19 Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) Bob Evans Farms, Inc. Public/ Public Cash 1,540 1,741 4.2x 26.9x 34.3x 15% 79.0x 6% 13% 19% 2017-04-25 Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) AdvancePierre Foods Holdings, Inc. Public/ Public Cash 3,374 4,350 2.8x 17.0x 22.5x 16% 23.0x 10% 19% 31% Mean 3.2x 17.6x 23.6x 19% 41.5x 9% 14% 22% Median 3.5x 18.2x 22.5x 21% 25.1x 9% 13% 19% High 4.2x 26.9x 34.3x 24% 89.8x 19% 28% 43% Low 1.0x 4.2x 10.1x 13% 14.4x 0% 0% 3% Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com Implied Price Multiple Metric (Aug 07, 2023) EV/LTM EBITDA $177 17.6x - 18.2x $28 - $29 EV/LTM Sales $941 3.2x - 3.5x $26 - $29 Premium - 1 Day prior $18.02 9% - 9% $20 - $20 Premium - 7 Days prior $18 0.1x - 0.1x $20 - $20 Premium - 30 Days prior $19.12 19% - 22% $23 - $23 Mean $23 - $24 Median $23 - $23 Multiple Range Implied Price Per Share Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, Yahoo Finance
  • 9. Merger Model Analysis A merger between Campbell’s and Sovos would allow them to realize cost synergies reaching $50M over the next two years Annual EPS Accretion / (Dilution) Sensitivity Analysis - Premium Paid Year Offer Price Premium 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 $20.72 15% 1.5% 6.0% 13.8% 16.5% 17.8% $21.62 20% 0.7% 5.2% 12.9% 15.6% 17.0% $22.53 25% (0.1%) 4.4% 12.0% 14.7% 16.1% $23.43 30% (0.9%) 3.6% 11.2% 13.9% 15.2% $24.33 35% (1.7%) 2.8% 10.4% 13.0% 14.4% tion / (Dilution) Analysis bell's Standalone Diluted EPS $2.35 $3.05 $3.41 $3.57 $3.67 $3.78 Standalone Diluted EPS $0.67 $0.92 $1.17 $1.31 $1.43 $1.55 rma Combined Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.21 $4.35 tion / (Dilution) - $ ($0.22) $0.10 $0.37 $0.48 $0.54 $0.58 tion / (Dilution) - % (9.2%) 3.2% 10.8% 13.4% 14.7% 15.3% ive / Dilutive Dilutive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accretive even Pre-Tax Synergies / (Cushion) $6.2 ($48.7) ($159.5) ($205.7) ($231.7) ($247.1) Accretion / (Dilution) Analysis Campbell's Standalone Diluted EPS $2.35 $3.05 $3.41 $3.57 $3. Sovos Standalone Diluted EPS $0.67 $0.92 $1.17 $1.31 $1. Pro Forma Combined Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4. Accretion / (Dilution) - $ ($0.22) $0.10 $0.37 $0.48 $0. Accretion / (Dilution) - % (9.2%) 3.2% 10.8% 13.4% 14. Accretive / Dilutive Dilutive Accretive Accretive Accretive Accret Breakeven Pre-Tax Synergies / (Cushion) $6.2 ($48.7) ($159.5) ($205.7) ($231 The EPS would be accretive from 2024, i.e. second year post-merger. This is owing to the high upfront integration cost of $90 million for the post-merger project. Source: CapIQ, Company Filings, NY Times, Mergent Online
  • 10. Since Jun 2023: CPB’s price decreased continuously Aug 7, 2023: • CPB and SOVO announced they have entered into an agreement for CPB to acquire SOVO • Shares of Campbell closed at $44.34, down $0.81 Oct 28, 2023: CPB announced the acquisition was delayed to the next year Annotated Stock Chart For Campbell, the market did not react positively; Sovos investors however were positive about the transaction Market Reaction Source: Yahoo Finance
  • 11. Synergies Market Share The Market Our Evaluation • Expected annualized cost synergies reaching approximately $50 million over the next two years • Improving scale efficiency of Campbell’s core operations • The transaction will make Campbell become one of the most dependable, growth- oriented names in food • The Sovos Brands portfolio strengthens and diversifies CPB’s Meals & Beverages division and paired with Campbell’s faster-growing and differentiated Snacks division • The food and beverage industry is one of the largest industries in the US • Packaged food and drink was estimated to be worth over US$1 trillion in 2022. The Food market is expected to grow annually by 5.60% (CAGR 2023-2028). The Beverages Industry is growing at a CAGR of 12.7% in the forecast period (2023-2030) Summary/Takeaways • Despite the 27.8% premium paid by Campbell, our merger model recognizes that the deal will be accretive after the deal closes • So long as Campbell can provide details to FDA and regulators do not interfere, we believe this transaction can generate significant long-term value for both companies in the future
  • 13. DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (1) WACC Calculation Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta Target Capital Structure Predicted Market Market Debt/ Marginal Unlevered Debt-to-Total Capitalization 21.5% Company Levered Beta (6) Value of Debt Value of Equity Equity Tax Rate Beta Equity-to-Total Capitalization 78.5% Utz Brands, Inc. 0.81 $1,051.6 $1,288.5 81.6% 21.0% 0.49 The Simply Good Foods Company 0.74 367.4 3,813.7 9.6% 21.0% 0.69 Lancaster Colony Corporation 0.22 30.0 5,320.6 0.6% 26.5% 0.22 Cost of Debt BellRing Brands, Inc. 0.90 918.8 4,754.3 19.3% 22.4% 0.78 Cost-of-Debt (1) 6.0% Vital Farms, Inc. 0.60 9.2 511.3 1.8% 29.2% 0.59 Tax Rate (2) 26.0% The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. 0.92 929.3 1,061.7 87.5% 26.8% 0.56 After-tax Cost of Debt 4.4% Mean 0.70 33.4% 0.56 Median 0.78 14.5% 0.58 Cost of Equity Risk-free Rate (3) 4.8% ValueCo Relevered Beta Market Risk Premium (4) 5.5% Mean Target Target Levered Beta 0.67 Unlevered Debt/ Marginal Relevered Size Premium (5) – Beta Equity Tax Rate Beta Cost of Equity 8.5% Relevered Beta 0.56 27.3% 26.0% 0.67 WACC Sensitivity Analysis WACC 7.6% 0.1 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 1.5% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 11.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 21.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 31.5% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 41.5% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.7% (1) Comparable Corporate Yield Curve Rate (2) Forecasted Tax Rate (3) Interpolated yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury, sourced from Ycharts (4) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook (5) Mid-cap Decile size premium based on market capitalization, per Ibbotson (6) Sourced from Bloomberg Pre-tax Cost of Debt Debt-to-Total Capitalization
  • 14. DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (2) Historical Period 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5 EBITDA $71.2 $104.8 $152.3 $149.7 $156.0 $171.0 $183.1 $197.7 $213.5 Depreciation & Amortization ($33.8) ($37.8) ($38.9) ($12.0) ($11.5) ($12.4) ($13.4) ($14.5) ($15.7) EBIT $37.4 $67.0 $113.4 $137.7 $144.5 $158.6 $169.6 $183.2 $197.9 % margin 6.7% 9.3% 12.9% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9% Taxes (9.7) (17.4) (29.5) 35.8 (37.6) (41.2) (44.1) (47.6) (51.4) EBIAT $27.7 $49.5 $83.9 $101.9 $106.9 $117.3 $125.5 $135.6 $146.4 Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 33.8 37.8 38.9 12.0 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7 Less: Capital Expenditures (12.7) (3.7) (14.2) (12.8) (14.6) (14.7) (15.9) (17.1) (18.5) Less: Inc./(Dec.) in Net Working Capital 1.3 8.9 (30.4) (44.3) (5.8) (6.3) (6.8) (7.4) (8.0) Unlevered Free Cash Flow $98.0 $108.8 $116.3 $125.5 $135.5 Projection Period Enterprise Value Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Cumulative Present Value of FCF $466.1 Enterprise Value $2,835.8 Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2028E) $135.5 Less: Total Debt (498.7) WACC 7.6% Terminal Value Less: Preferred Stock - Terminal Value $3,416.3 Terminal Year EBITDA (2028E) $213.5 Less: Noncontrolling Interest - Exit Multiple 16.0x Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 172.7 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.48% Terminal Value $3,416.3 Discount Factor 0.69 Implied Equity Value $2,509.8 Implied EV/EBITDA Present Value of Terminal Value $2,369.7 Enterprise Value $2,835.8 % of Enterprise Value 83.6% Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2 LTM EBITDA 149.7 Enterprise Value $2,835.8 Implied Share Price $24.80 Implied EV/EBITDA 18.9x Implied Equity Value and Share Price
  • 15. DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (3) Historical Period 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Sales $560.1 $719.2 $878.4 $955.0 $1,044.0 $1,130.0 $1,220.4 $1,318.0 $1,423.5 Cost of Goods Sold (373.3) (498.1) (629.8) (665.0) (720.0) (775.0) (836.0) (902.9) (975.1) Current Assets Accounts Receivable 43.7 61.0 70.7 84.0 91.8 99.4 107.3 115.9 125.2 Inventories 26.7 47.1 51.6 88.0 95.3 102.6 110.6 119.5 129.0 Prepaid Expenses and Other 4.6 4.4 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.2 10.0 Total Current Assets $75.1 $112.5 $129.0 $179.0 $194.4 $209.8 $226.5 $244.6 $264.2 Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 21.0 31.2 37.3 47.0 50.9 54.8 59.1 63.8 68.9 Accrued Liabilities 37.6 65.1 51.8 58.0 63.7 68.9 74.4 80.4 86.8 Other Current Liabilities - - - - - - - - - Total Current Liabilities $58.6 $96.3 $89.0 $105.0 $114.6 $123.7 $133.5 $144.2 $155.8 Net Working Capital $16.4 $16.2 $40.0 $74.0 $79.8 $86.1 $93.0 $100.4 $108.4 % sales 2.9% 2.3% 4.6% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% (Increase) / Decrease in NWC $0.3 ($23.8) ($34.0) ($5.8) ($6.3) ($6.8) ($7.4) ($8.0) Assumptions Current Assets Days Sales Outstanding 28.5 31.0 29.4 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.1 Days Inventory Held (26.1) (34.5) (29.9) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) (48.3) Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales) 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Current Liabilities Days Payable Outstanding (20.5) (22.8) (21.6) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) (25.8) Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) 6.7% 9.1% 5.9% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % - % Projection Period
  • 16. DCF Model Assumptions and Calculations (4) Enterprise Value Implied Equity Value Exit Multiple Exit Multiple 2,835.8 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 2,509.8 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 6.6% 2,807 2,885 2,962 3,040 3,118 6.6% 2,481 2,559 2,636 2,714 2,792 7.1% 2,747 2,822 2,898 2,974 3,050 7.1% 2,421 2,497 2,572 2,648 2,724 7.6% 2,688 2,762 $2,836 2,910 2,984 7.6% 2,362 2,436 $2,510 2,584 2,658 8.1% 2,630 2,703 2,775 2,847 2,920 8.1% 2,304 2,377 2,449 2,521 2,594 8.6% 2,575 2,645 2,716 2,787 2,857 8.6% 2,249 2,319 2,390 2,461 2,531 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Exit Multiple Exit Multiple 0.0 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 18.9 6.5x 7.0x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 6.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 6.6% 9.9x 10.5x 19.8x 20.3x 20.8x 7.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 7.1% 9.7x 10.2x 19.4x 19.9x 20.4x 7.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 7.6% 9.5x 10.0x 18.9x 19.4x 19.9x 8.1% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 8.1% 9.4x 9.8x 18.5x 19.0x 19.5x 8.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7% 8.6% 9.2x 9.6x 18.1x 18.6x 19.1x PV of Terminal Value % of Enterprise Value Exit Multiple 0.8 15.0x 15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 6.6% 82.9% 83.4% 83.8% 84.2% 84.6% 7.1% 82.8% 83.3% 83.7% 84.1% 84.5% 7.6% 82.7% 83.1% 83.6% 84.0% 84.4% 8.1% 82.5% 83.0% 83.4% 83.9% 84.3% 8.6% 82.4% 82.9% 83.3% 83.7% 84.1% WACC WACC WACC WACC WACC Implied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDA
  • 17. Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (1) Purchase Price Public / Private Target 1 Offer Price per Share $23.00 Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.2 Equity Purchase Price $2,327.6 Plus: Total Debt 495.0 Plus: Preferred Securities - Plus: Noncontrolling Interest - Less: Cash and Cash Equivalents (214.0) Enterprise Value $2,608.6 Goodwill Calculation Equity Purchase Price $2,327.6 Less: ValueCo Net Identifiable Assets (531.0) Total Allocable Purchase Premium $1,796.6 Allocation % Less: Tangible Asset Write-Up 10% (179.7) Less: Intangible Asset Write-Up 10% (179.7) Plus: Deferred Tax Liability $136.5 Goodwill Created in Transaction $1,573.8 Write-Up Depreciation & Amortization Assumptions Annual Years Amount Tangible Asset Write-Up Depreciation Period 15 12.0 Intangible Asset Write-Up Amortization Period 15 12.0 Deferred Income Taxes (9.1) Sovos Brands Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding Basic Shares Outstanding 101.200 Plus: Shares from In-the-Money Options - Less: Shares Repurchased - Net New Shares from Options - Plus: Shares from Convertible Securities - Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 101.200 Options/Warrants Number of Exercise In-the-Money Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds N/A - - - - N/A - - - - N/A - - - - N/A - - - - N/A - - - - Total - - - Campbell's Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding Basic Shares Outstanding 299.000 Plus: Shares from In-the-Money Options 3.222 Less: Shares Repurchased - Net New Shares from Options 3.222 Plus: Shares from Convertible Securities - Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 302.222 Options/Warrants Number of Exercise In-the-Money Tranche Shares Price Shares Proceeds Stock Options 0.833 $44.77 - - RSUs 2.274 - 2.274 - TSR RSUs 0.948 - 0.948 - N/A - - - - N/A - - - - Total 4.055 3.222 -
  • 18. Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (2) Financing Structures Structure 1 2 3 4 5 Sources of Funds Structure 1 Structure 2 Structure 3 Structure 4 Status Quo Revolving Credit Facility Size - - - - - Revolving Credit Facility Draw - - - - - Term Loan A - - - - - Term Loan B - - - - - Term Loan C - - - - - Delayed Draw Term Loan 1,760.7 1,173.8 586.9 - 2,000.0 Senior Notes - - - - - Senior Subordinated Notes - - - - - Issuance of Common Stock 586.9 1,173.8 1,760.7 2,347.6 347.6 Cash on Hand - - - - - Other - - - - - - - - - - - Total Sources of Funds $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 Uses of Funds Equity Purchase Price $2,327.6 $2,327.6 $2,327.6 $2,327.6 $2,327.6 Repay Existing Bank Debt - - - - - Tender / Call Premiums - - - - - Debt Financing Fees 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Transaction and Other Fees - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Total Uses of Funds $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6 $2,347.6
  • 19. Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (3) Pro Forma Combined Financial Summary Pro Forma 1 2 3 4 5 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Sales $10,312.0 $10,971.8 $11,703.1 $12,015.5 $12,339.8 $12,676.7 % growth 9.2% 6.4% 6.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% Gross Profit $3,207.0 $3,527.8 $3,787.1 $3,875.5 $3,979.6 $4,087.7 % margin 31.1% 32.2% 32.4% 32.3% 32.3% 32.2% EBITDA $1,859.7 $2,030.2 $2,211.4 $2,291.4 $2,350.0 $2,410.7 % margin 18.0% 18.5% 18.9% 19.1% 19.0% 19.0% Interest Expense 370.5 330.1 229.3 188.8 174.9 174.9 Net Income $662.3 $975.8 $1,170.2 $1,255.3 $1,306.2 $1,349.8 % margin 6.4% 8.9% 10.0% 10.4% 10.6% 10.6% Fully Diluted Shares 310.1 310.1 310.1 310.1 310.1 310.1 Diluted EPS $2.14 $3.15 $3.77 $4.05 $4.21 $4.35 Cash Flow from Operating Activities 1,369.1 1,627.9 1,708.1 1,768.4 1,821.8 Less: Capital Expenditures (461.4) (416.5) (415.3) (424.9) (434.9) Free Cash Flow $907.7 $1,211.5 $1,292.8 $1,343.5 $1,386.9 Senior Secured Debt 2,975.0 2,064.3 852.8 - - - Senior Debt 6,988.0 6,077.3 4,865.8 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 Total Debt 6,993.0 6,082.3 4,870.8 4,018.0 4,018.0 4,018.0 Cash & Equivalents 403.0 400.0 400.0 840.0 2,183.5 3,570.4
  • 20. Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (4) Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement Projection Period Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Operating Activities Net Income $975.8 $1,170.2 $1,255.3 $1,306.2 $1,349.8 Plus: Depreciation 398.7 424.8 434.4 444.3 454.5 Plus: Depreciation on Tangible Assets Write-up 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Plus: Amortization on Intangible Assets Write-up 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Plus: Amortization of Financing Fees 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Changes in Working Capital Items (Inc.) / Dec. in Accounts Receivable (78.2) (46.5) (21.3) (22.3) (23.2) (Inc.) / Dec. in Inventories (63.7) (90.2) (40.5) (39.3) (40.7) (Inc.) / Dec. in Prepaid and Other Current Assets (4.2) (5.0) (2.2) (2.2) (2.3) Inc. / (Dec.) in Accounts Payable 61.5 88.5 37.4 35.8 36.9 Inc. / (Dec.) in Accrued Liabilities 41.8 46.1 19.6 20.3 21.1 Inc. / (Dec.) in Other Current Liabilities 19.8 22.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 (Inc.) / Dec. in Net Working Capital (23.1) 15.2 0.7 0.2 (0.3) Inc. / (Dec.) in Deferred Taxes (9.1) (9.1) (9.1) (9.1) (9.1) Cash Flow from Operating Activities $1,369.1 $1,627.9 $1,708.1 $1,768.4 $1,821.8 Investing Activities Capital Expenditures (461.4) (416.5) (415.3) (424.9) (434.9) Other Investing Activities - - - - - Cash Flow from Investing Activities ($461.4) ($416.5) ($415.3) ($424.9) ($434.9) Financing Activities Revolving Credit Facility - - - - - Sovos Brands Term Loan (475.0) - - - - Campbell's Term Loan (435.7) (64.3) - - - Delayed Draw Term Loan - (1,147.2) (852.8) - - Campbell's Existing Senior Notes - - - - - Other Debt - - - - - Dividends - - - - - Equity Issuance / (Repurchase) - - - - - Cash Flow from Financing Activities ($910.7) ($1,211.5) ($852.8) - - Excess Cash for the Period ($3.0) $0.0 $440.0 $1,343.5 $1,386.9 Beginning Cash Balance 403.0 400.0 400.0 840.0 2,183.5 Ending Cash Balance $400.0 $400.0 $840.0 $2,183.5 $3,570.4 Capital Expenditures (% of sales) 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
  • 21. Pro Forma Balance Sheet Standalone Projection Period Campbell's Sovos Brands Adjustments Pro Forma Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 2023 2023 + - 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Cash and Cash Equivalents $189.0 $214.0 0.0 $403.0 $400.0 $400.0 $840.0 $2,183.5 $3,570.4 Accounts Receivable 528.0 84.0 612.0 690.2 736.7 758.0 780.2 803.5 Inventories 1,280.0 88.0 1,368.0 1,431.7 1,521.9 1,562.4 1,601.7 1,642.4 Prepaids and Other Current Assets 64.0 7.0 71.0 75.2 80.2 82.4 84.6 86.9 Total Current Assets $2,061.0 $393.0 $2,454.0 $2,597.1 $2,738.8 $3,242.7 $4,650.0 $6,103.1 Property, Plant and Equipment, net 2,398.0 78.0 179.7 2,655.7 2,706.4 2,686.1 2,655.0 2,623.6 2,591.9 Goodwill 3,973.0 - 1,573.8 0.0 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 5,546.8 Intangible Assets 3,134.0 - 179.7 3,313.7 3,301.7 3,289.7 3,277.7 3,265.8 3,253.8 Other Assets - 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 723.0 Deferred Financing Fees 492.0 - 20.0 512.0 509.1 506.3 503.4 500.6 497.7 Total Assets $12,058.0 $1,194.0 $15,205.1 $15,384.2 $15,490.7 $15,948.6 $17,309.7 $18,716.4 Accounts Payable 1,306.0 47.0 1,353.0 1,414.5 1,502.9 1,540.3 1,576.1 1,613.0 Accrued Liabilities 592.0 58.0 650.0 691.8 737.9 757.4 777.7 798.8 Other Current Liabilities 324.0 - 324.0 343.8 366.1 373.8 381.6 389.7 Total Current Liabilities $2,222.0 $105.0 $2,327.0 $2,450.0 $2,606.9 $2,671.5 $2,735.5 $2,801.5 Revolving Credit Facility - - - - - - - - Sovos Brands Term Loan - 475.0 0.0 475.0 - - - - - Campbell's Term Loan 500.0 - 500.0 64.3 - - - - Delayed Draw Term Loan - - 2,000.0 2,000.0 2,000.0 852.8 - - - Campbell's Senior Notes 4,013.0 - 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 4,013.0 Sovos Brands Senior Notes - - 0.0 - - - - - - Other Debt (15.0) 20.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Deferred Income Taxes 1,067.0 - 136.5 1,203.5 1,194.4 1,185.3 1,176.2 1,167.1 1,158.0 Other Long-Term Liabilities 608.0 63.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 671.0 Total Liabilities $8,395.0 $663.0 $11,194.5 $10,397.8 $9,334.1 $8,536.8 $8,591.6 $8,648.5 Noncontrolling Interest 2.0 - 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Shareholders' Equity 3,661.0 531.0 347.6 (531.0) 4,008.6 4,984.4 6,154.6 7,409.9 8,716.1 10,065.9 Total Shareholders' Equity $3,663.0 $531.0 $4,010.6 $4,986.4 $6,156.6 $7,411.9 $8,718.1 $10,067.9 Total Liabilities and Equity $12,058.0 $1,194.0 $15,205.1 $15,384.2 $15,490.7 $15,948.6 $17,309.7 $18,716.4 Balance Check 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Net Working Capital (350.0) 74.0 (276.0) (252.9) (268.1) (268.8) (269.0) (268.7) (Increase) / Decrease in Net Working Capital (23.1) 15.2 0.7 0.2 (0.3) Merger Model Assumptions and Calculations (5)