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Investing and Doing Business in
Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Sector
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Overview
 Economics
 Macroeconomics
 Oil and Gas sector features
 Conclusions
 Doing Business
 Forecasts
 Regulator’s features
 Recommendations
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Economics overview
 GDP growth goes down and forecasts are very
conservative. Spending and Investments cuts.
 Trade balance is under ongoing pressure for years.
(Metals, Coal, Oil)
 Banking sector is struggling.
 Eurasian Union – contradictory factor.
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Economics. Commodity metals price index
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Economics. GDP and Income Growth
-5
0
5
10
15
20 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Real Income Growth
Real GDP Growth
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Economics. Export and Import (bln. USD)
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(f)
Export Import Net Export
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Economics. Oil and Gas sector features
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
85,0
90,0 Production (mt) Export (mt)
Brent price
Economics. Conclusions.
 Rainy day. Lack of domestic investments.
 Government needs more oil, cash and ready to
negotiate.
 Good opportunities and treats
 Who are you in this negotiations:
White Knight or Milking Cow?
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Doing business. Forecasts.
 Slew to the sector’s problems. Improvement in
investment climate.
 Less involvement of SK or regulator in regular
business. (Contradictory).
 Conflicts of interests are escalated (Budget revenue,
social requirements, production/export needs).
 Less influence upon ownership changes.
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Doing business. Regulator Features.
 People are open, smart and constructive
 More process rather than result oriented
 Procedures-driven
 Uneven, personality - dependent
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Doing business. Recommendations.
 Be ready. Prepare the problem or issue for
discussion.
 Use communication with the government bodies for
consultations and discussion.
 Formulate planned results on fitness for your
purpose basis.
 Develop your own success path within current
procedures orchestrate the decisions needed.
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
Thank you for your attention.
Aidarkhan Kussainov, Director
Almagest Management and Strategy Consulting
www.almagest.kz
Phone +7 - 777 - 705 - 7128
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty

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Investing in Kazakhstan's Oil and Gas sector

  • 1. Investing and Doing Business in Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Sector Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 2. Overview  Economics  Macroeconomics  Oil and Gas sector features  Conclusions  Doing Business  Forecasts  Regulator’s features  Recommendations Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 3. Economics overview  GDP growth goes down and forecasts are very conservative. Spending and Investments cuts.  Trade balance is under ongoing pressure for years. (Metals, Coal, Oil)  Banking sector is struggling.  Eurasian Union – contradictory factor. Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 4. Economics. Commodity metals price index Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 5. Economics. GDP and Income Growth -5 0 5 10 15 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real Income Growth Real GDP Growth Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 6. Economics. Export and Import (bln. USD) -60,0 -40,0 -20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (f) Export Import Net Export Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 7. Economics. Oil and Gas sector features Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 40,0 45,0 50,0 55,0 60,0 65,0 70,0 75,0 80,0 85,0 90,0 Production (mt) Export (mt) Brent price
  • 8. Economics. Conclusions.  Rainy day. Lack of domestic investments.  Government needs more oil, cash and ready to negotiate.  Good opportunities and treats  Who are you in this negotiations: White Knight or Milking Cow? Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 9. Doing business. Forecasts.  Slew to the sector’s problems. Improvement in investment climate.  Less involvement of SK or regulator in regular business. (Contradictory).  Conflicts of interests are escalated (Budget revenue, social requirements, production/export needs).  Less influence upon ownership changes. Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 10. Doing business. Regulator Features.  People are open, smart and constructive  More process rather than result oriented  Procedures-driven  Uneven, personality - dependent Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 11. Doing business. Recommendations.  Be ready. Prepare the problem or issue for discussion.  Use communication with the government bodies for consultations and discussion.  Formulate planned results on fitness for your purpose basis.  Develop your own success path within current procedures orchestrate the decisions needed. Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty
  • 12. Thank you for your attention. Aidarkhan Kussainov, Director Almagest Management and Strategy Consulting www.almagest.kz Phone +7 - 777 - 705 - 7128 Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Summit 2015. February 23rd&24th/Rixos Hotel,Almaty