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INVESTING
FOR
CASH FLOW
The time for diversification is now
2
THROUGH THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
INDUSTRY, WE ARE A WEALTH CREATION
VEHICLE THAT IMPROVES THE LIVES OF
THE PEOPLE WE WORK FOR, THE PEOPLE
WE WORK WITH, AND THE COMMUNITIES
WE WORK WITHIN.
3
CONTENTS
04
06
INTRODUCTION
THE BENEFITS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTING
MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE: DEFINED
MULITFAMILY ASSETS
THE LIQUIDITY TRADE-OFF
MULTIFAMILY OUTLOOK
07
08
13
14
HOW PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS
HEDGE THEIR BETS12
2017 TAX CHANGES16
WHAT’S NEXT17
WHY MULTIFAMILY REITS09
4
The last decade has seen a transformation of the average
American investor. During the 2008 financial crisis, when the
stock market lost more than half of its value, many investors
responded by taking their money out. And while the stock
market has since made up for those losses, new research
indicates many Americans are still not ready to reinvest.
In 2007, about two-thirds of Americans were invested in
the stock market. That figure dropped to about 50 percent
by 20161
. Despite investors’ cautiousness toward stocks,
the real estate market remains a favorite in the U.S. for the
fourth consecutive year. A Gallup survey found that one-third
of Americans say real estate is the best choice for long-term
investment, beating out stocks and mutual funds.2
There is a reason for this; the real estate market has
outperformed the stock market over a 16-year period.
Between 2000 and 2016, the S&P 500 Index yielded a 5.43
percent annual total return3
while real estate returned 10.71
percent.4
1 Gallup, ‘U.S. Stock Ownership Down Among All but Older, Higher-Income,’ 2017
2 Gallup, ‘Americans Still Favor Real Estate for Long-Term Investment,’ 2017
3 Bloomberg and CBOE, ‘Month-end closing value’, 1986 - 2017
4 Nareit, ‘Monthly Index Values & Returns,’ 1972-2017
IN 2007, ABOUT TWO-
THIRDS OF AMERICANS
WERE INVESTED IN THE
STOCK MARKET. THAT
FIGURE DROPPED TO
ABOUT 50 PERCENT BY
2016.
IS YOUR PORTFOLIO READY
FOR THE NEXT RECESSION?
5
Despite the benefits, there is one thing that may be holding investors back from truly reaping the
financial rewards from owning rental properties. About 70 percent of Americans think investing in real
estate is more difficult than investing in other asset classes.5
If an investor is going at it alone, this may be true, considering the process of purchasing a property does
require research, negotiation and what may seem like hoop-jumping to obtain a loan. What many do not
realize, however, is that there are several types of real estate investment strategies—ranging from hands-
on acquisition and management to completely passive strategies, both of which allow investors to invest
alongside billion-dollar institutions through private market real estate investing.
Take the multifamily market as an example, which has not only withstood the economic downturns of
the past and enjoyed high yields, but is poised to remain strong for years for come. This special report
will seek to demystify the real estate market as well as provide an overview of the opportunities the
passage of the 2012 JOBS Act has brought to all investors.
5 RealtyShares, ‘Report: 2017 Real Estate Investment Survey,’ 2017
American’s Choice of Best Long-Term Investment
% Real estate % Stocks/Mutual funds % Gold % Savings accounts/CDs % Bonds
SOURCE: GALLUP
AUG 2011 APR 2012 APR 2013 APR 2014 APR 2015 APR 2016 APR 2017
Figure 1 - American’s Choice of Best Long-Term Investment
Source: Gallop
6
Annualized
Total Return
Listed REITs
Large Cap Stocks
Small Cap Stocks
Commodiঞes
Corporate Bonds
Government Bonds
NPI
1.10
Sharpe Raঞo
0.45
Sharpe Raঞo
Risk Free Rate
Annualized Risk (Standard Deviaঞon)
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream; www.treasury.gov
One of the most popular reasons why investors
choose real estate is because it is a tangible
investment. Unlike stocks, real estate assets can
be seen and touched. This tangibility plays a role in
the client having peace of mind and great control
over the investment and its cash flow compared
with other asset types.
When many people think about investing, they
think about buying a rental house. In an ideal
situation, the landlord charges enough rent
from tenants to cover the mortgage, taxes and
maintenance of the property. The remaining cash
can provide the investor with an entirely new
income stream – if all goes well this cash flow can
serve as protection against dips in the financial
markets.
While additional cash flow also exists in stock
market investing, it is becoming less common.
As a way to assure shareholders of their financial
standing, some companies will offer dividends.
However, fewer and fewer industries in the U.S.
today offer regular and significant dividends.6
These payouts are also exposed to volatility – one
of the biggest risks of the stock market.
6	 RealtyShares, ‘Real Estate Marketplaces Can Potentially Address the “Missing Dividends” Problem,’ 2017
7	 The Street, ‘Real Estate: Best-Performing Asset Class During the Past 20 Years’, 2016
It is true that slumps can occur as well in real
estate, but those who invest in residential
properties typically lease them for many years and
can at times avoid experiencing falls in rent.
In addition to cash flow, real estate investors can
profit from increases in property value when they
choose to sell, thanks to its appreciation. Even the
slightest upgrade to a property can significantly
increase the price and enhance the return on
investment.
Lastly, real estate has been dubbed the best
performing asset class over the past 20 years by
the National Association of Real Estate Investment
Trust Index, beating out stocks, bonds, diversified
portfolios, commodities and cash.
While the publicly traded real estate market
delivered higher returns, it is also associated with
higher volatility. That is why the Sharpe Ratio is
used in Figure 2 to characterize performance. A
higher Sharpe Ratio indicates a higher return per
each unit of risk, which is exactly what the private
real estate market delivers.7
Figure 2 – 20-Year Return and Risk Profile Across
Major Asset Classes
THE BENEFITS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTING
REAL ESTATE
BEST PERFORMING ASSET CLASS
as ranked by
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
TRUST INDEX
7
When it comes to residential property,
there are two main categories that
homes generally fall into: single-family
and multifamily. Single-family properties
are those with one unit available to rent,
such as houses and condominiums, while
multifamily properties are buildings with
more than one rentable unit, such as
apartment complexes.
While single-family properties are
usually more affordable, if you plan on
purchasing the entire property, there
are several reasons why multifamily
properties tend to be the better
investment. And with the passage of
new security laws, you no longer have
to be an accredited investor to be able to invest
alongside big institutions, as there are multi-family
opportunities starting at $2,000.
When a tenant moves out of a single-family
property, that home would become 100 percent
vacant. In contrast, a tenant leaving a 100-
unit property would only make it 1 percent
vacant, thereby diversifying the overall risk of
the investment. This diversification can provide
additional protection in the event of a downturn or
other factors outside of an owner’s control.
One of the other major benefits of multifamily
investing is the downside protection of your most
important asset – your time. Most multifamily
investments engage professional property
management services, which can come in handy if
fixing toilets is not a pastime you enjoy.
Unless you are buying a multifamily apartment
complex direct, you will likely additionally have
asset management services built in as well.
Asset management firms (which are typically
run by the investment firm which purchases the
property) typically have decades or even centuries
of experience in-house. Upside Avenue’s parent
company The PPA Group, for example, has
hundreds of years in combined experience within
the multifamily market and has transacted more
than $1 billion in multifamily properties over the
last 15 years.
This experience creates an environment where
you have deep expertise managing the health of
the overall investment. Asset management firms
work alongside the property management team
to ensure the property is running as it should be,
given economic and local market conditions. Most
sophisticated investment firms are “vertically
integrated”, meaning they have asset management
and property management in-house – increasing
overall economics of scale. Upside Avenue is part
of a vertically integrated organization, having
a property management company, an asset
management company, a construction company
and a utility billing company all under one roof.
Nearly all large multifamily properties have
professional asset management (if they were
purchased through an investment firm). This
creates a process which results in truly passive
income for investors, as they often need to do little
more than monitor investments with their financial
advisors and collect distribution checks.
MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE: DEFINED
8
In the U.S., multifamily is often broken down by “asset class”. An asset class is a categorization of the
overall age, condition and area. Properties are typically labeled Class A, B, C or D.
CLASS A
Class A properties are usually new, upscale apartment buildings with high-end amenities, and are
often less than 10 years old. This class is known to have high average rents and be located in desirable
geographic areas. These buildings are typically home to professionals and white-collar workers, who
choose to rent by choice. While very pretty to look at, however, these types of properties can be most
affected by recessionary trends.
CLASS B & C
Class B and C properties, on the other hand, attract a wide demographic, from working-class individuals
to Millennials entering the market to downsizing Baby Boomers. These properties often have a mix of
white and blue-collar workers and tend to offer residents the most bang for their buck, attracting renters
even in a down economy. Tenants can range in age from 10 to 30-year-olds and are often located in
desirable buildings in well-established middle-income neighborhoods.
CLASS D
Class D properties are often home to tenants 35 years or older and are
located in run-down or low socioeconomic areas. They often house many
Section 8 (government-subsidized) tenants.
While the building’s age is a factor, it is not as important as the building’s
overall condition and area. For example, you can have a beautifully
renovated yet historic building in a desirable area and it will be classified
as an A or B building.
In a recent op-ed in the Multifamily Executive Magazine, Upside Avenue
CEO Yuen Yung shared his views on asset class selection for portfolio
balance. He says as renters are priced out of Class A apartments in a down
or volatile economy, vacancies will inevitably increase.
And that’s exactly what’s happening today. The national vacancy rate
(which takes into account all classes of apartments) rose by 10 basis
points in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.3 percent. Conversely, affordable
multifamily housing vacancies clocked in at a low 1.7 percent.
Class A properties are also costly to build and often come with a high
property tax price tag, making the upfront investment for these properties
quite significant. Even so, Class A apartment construction is at the peak of
a seven-year high, according to The Wall Street Journal.
This has led to a sudden oversupply of luxury apartments, which in turn
has made Class A properties less profitable across the board. Meanwhile,
Class B and C properties also allow real estate investors the opportunity
to enjoy a significant lift in NOI by making small property improvements.
4.3%
Q1 2017 NATIONAL
VACANCY RATE
1.7%
Q1 2017 AFFORDABLE
MULTIFAMILY HOUSING
VACANCY RATE
MULTIFAMILY ASSET CLASSES
9
The multifamily rental sector is famous for having outperformed other sectors in the housing market,
especially during the global economic downturn that began in 2007.
This sector was also one of the quickest to recover from the recession. By 2013, multifamily housing
starts had already returned more than 70 percent of their pre-recession peak, while single-family housing
starts had only recovered a small amount of their recession low.8
Figure 3 shows the
multifamily index values
compared with other
primary property types—
including industrial,
retail and office—and
demonstrates the quick
recovery relative to other
asset types within the
sector.
Since then, growth has
continued. Throughout
2016, the multifamily
market kept up with
its above-average
performance while
disproving previous
predictions of higher
vacancy rates. Despite
moderation in rent,
growth remained above
the historical average in
2016.9
8 Economics and Statistics Administration, ‘Understanding the Trend in Multifamily Housing Growth During the Recovery,’ 2013
9 Freddie Mac, ‘Multifamily 2017 Outlook: Positioned for Further Growth,’ 2017
Examples of these value-adds include putting in communal clubhouses,
adding dog parks, and offering community events. These upgrades to
B and C apartments can be relatively inexpensive to implement yet can
generate higher rents, leading to rapid ROI growth.
Upside Avenue has a 15-year track record of investing in A, B and C
properties through its parent company, The PPA Group.
The PPA Group believes in a diversified balance of multifamily, senior
living and student housing across A, B and C asset classes across the
nation creates a winning strategy.
WHY MULTIFAMILY REITS
U.S. Primary Property Type Quarterly Indices - Equal Weighted, Data through December of 2012
1996
U.S. Industrial U.S. Retail U.S. Mulঞfamily
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2003 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. Office
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Source: CoStar, ‘U.S. commercial real estate posts record gain in sales volume and broadening pricing
recovery to close 2012.’
Figure 3 - U.S. Primary Property Type Quarterly Indices - Equal Weighted,
Data through December 2012
PEOPLE
ALWAYS NEED
A PLACE TO
LIVE
10
Even brighter predictions are set for 2018
and beyond, especially for such subsectors as
apartments, senior living and student housing
properties, which are best known for their high
yields.
According to the National Multifamily Housing
Council, apartments have the highest risk-
adjusted investment returns compared to other
property types, and have proven to be the most
resilient during economic downturns. In addition,
apartments have shorter leases than other
property types, allowing them to more quickly
10 NMHC, ‘Research: A Case for Investing in U.S. Apartments.’
11 NMHC, ‘Investors Favor Student Housing’s Economic Resiliency,’ 2017
12 AEW Research, ‘Seniors Housing Investment Opportunity,’ 2015
adjust to changing market environments.10
The U.S. student housing market is also considered
something of a safe haven amid global economic
uncertainty, due to continued enrolment growth at
four-year universities and colleges as well as more
controlled supply growth.11
Meanwhile, the senior housing sector too has
proven to be recession-resistant. While occupancy
rates fell during the Great Recession, rent growth
remained positive during the downturn.12
Figure
4 shows that the annual total return through the
first quarter of 2017 for senior housing properties
Figure 4 - NCREIF Annualized Total Returns by Property Type (Period Ending 3/31/17)
Source: NCREIF, NIC MAP* Data Services
NCREIF Annualized Total Returns By Property Type
(Period Ending 3/31/17)
One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years
NPI Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail Senior Housing
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Source: NCREIF, NIC MAP* Data Services
11
was 12.05 percent, overshadowing the
7.27 percent result of the NCREIF Property
Index (NPI).13
This trend is expected to only
continue as demographic shifts cause a
greater need for senior housing. Currently,
around 1 million Americans live in some type
of senior living community. As illustrated in
figure 5, that number is expected to double
by the year 2030. By the year 2040, the 85+
population is expected to nearly triple from
5.7 million to 14.1 million.14
At the time of writing this paper, we are in the midst of an unprecedented stock market boom, but many
have already begun predicting the start of the next economic decline.
MarketWatch, for example, is reporting U.S. stocks are more expensive than other closely watched
markets like Europe or emerging markets—which don’t look particularly cheap themselves—and based on
the relative strength index, or RSI, the S&P is at its most overbought level in 22 years.
With stocks performing exceptionally well, many financial advisors are advising clients to diversify and
not be complacent15
—lest they repeat the mistakes of 1999 and 2007.
Many forecasts for the next recession are
based on the length of the current recovery,
which is now one of the longest expansions
on record. A quick look at Figure 6 would
suggest the end is indeed near.
Upside’s sister company Casoro Capital,
partners with institutional, family office
and ultra-high-net-worth investors. We
are hearing from a large percentage of our
partners that they are looking to ‘hedge their
bets’ by placing more money in assets that
13 NCREIF, ‘Seniors housing returns moderate, but continue to outpace
NPI,’ 2017
14 Census Bureau, An Aging Nation: The Older Population in the United
States, 2014
15 Kiplinger, ‘Now more than ever it’s time to diversify’, December 2017
IS IT TIME TO TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN?
Populaঞon Aged 65 and Over for the United States: 2012 to 2050
Millions
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2012 2015 2020 2025 20352030 2040 2045 2050
Figure 5 - Population Aged 65 and Over for the United States:
2012 to 2050
ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN MONTHS
NOTE: BOTTOM DATES ARE END OF RECESSION AND TOP DATES ARE BEGINNING OF NEXT RECESSION
NOV-48
OCT-45
JUL-53
OCT-49
AUG-57
MAY-54
APR-60
APR-58
DEC-69
FEB-61
NOV-73
NOV-70
JAN-80
MAR-75
JUL-90
DEC-82
MAR-01
MAR-91
DEC-07
NOV-01
APR-17
JUL-09
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
37
45
39
24
106
36
58
91
120
73
93
Source: Axiometrics
Figure 6 - Economic Expansion in Months
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National
Projections
12
have a proven track record of real yield—in the case
of a musical chairs economy no one wants to be left
with all their eggs in the stock-market basket.
Additional data that our team of market experts has
been examining is unemployment data. When the
unemployment rate falls below 5 percent, and it has
since January 2016, history shows a recession usually
follows within the next two to three years. Figure 7,
for instance, shows that when the unemployment
rate sunk below 5 percent in December 2005, the
Great Recession followed in January 2008—just 25
months later.16
16 AXIOMetrics, ‘Is a recession near?’, 2017
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AS A PREDICTOR OF RECESSION
Natural Rate of Employment
Monthly Unemployment Rate
Recession
1954
1961
1968
1975
1982
1989
1996
2003
2010
2017
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Figure 7 - Unemployment Rate as a Predictor
of Recession
What are the reasons you invest in real assets outside of real estate?
Diversification from Other Asset Classes
Inflation Hedge
Stable Income Flows
Overall Higher Returns
100.0%
92.9%
64.3%
35.7%
SOURCE: Pension Real Estate Association
Figure 8 - Why Real Estate
Source: CPension Real Estate Association
HOW PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS HEDGE
THEIR BETS
Large institutions, like pension funds, insurance
carriers, and endowments, manage market risk
for a huge population of investors. A major part of
their strategy is holding alternative assets, such as
real estate that produce on-going real yield (aka
income). In their 2017 survey Pension Real Estate
Association (PREA) members reported having an
average of 9 percent of their holdings in private
market, non-traded real estate.17
Institutional and professional investors understand
the importance of diversification. While the stock
market may be good now, we have seen the
bottom drop out with little warning.
17 Pension Real Estate Association, ‘Investor Report’
As Figure 8 demonstrates, by allocating a portion
of their investment portfolio, investors are able to
reap a number of benefits including diversification
from other asset classes, inflation hedging, and
providing stable income flows.
This strategy has paid off. As of 2015, the average
equity mutual fund investor earned a 30-year
annual return of roughly 3.7%. By contrast, the
Yale endowment generated an approximate 13%
annual return over the past 30 years. While Yale is
one example of superior returns, they are not alone
in their overall satisfaction with commercial real
estate.
Source: Axiometrics
13
THE LIQUIDITY TRADE-OFF:
COST VS REWARD
There can be some initial apprehension about investing in
less liquid assets. However, the cost that many investors are
paying for liquidity that they are not often using is usually
not worth the price tag for many investors.
Having non-market correlated alternative assets such as
private market real estate in one’s portfolio is a hedge
against systematic risk inflation and stock market downturns.
Which, could otherwise have double digit losses across
both stocks and bonds in a single day if a market adjustment
occurs. These benefits only increase when compounded by
diversifying across markets and assets types.
Nearly all companies start as private companies, and when
they go public they rarely significantly increase the value of
the underlying assets—however the price of those assets (or
the stock price) often goes way up. This price is marked up
to pay for increased regulatory costs, daily liquidity and is
often highly correlated to the overall stock-market, meaning
you could be severely over-paying just because the market is
over-heated. Because public markets have heavy disclosure
requirements as well as teams of analysts often covering
them, there is often little potential for information arbitrage
(using information to find additional value in a stock). That
is not the case in the private markets like real estate, where
local market expertise, economies of scale from vertical
integration and other factors lead to ability to increase value
without increasing price.
According to a report entitled “Private Company Valuations”
published by NYU’s Stern Business School, the illiquidity
discount for private firms often ranges from 20-30 percent.18
As most investors take a longer term buy and hold approach
and are not in need of daily liquidity, a careful examination
of the premium being charged for this liquidity may be in
order. While institutional investors do invest in the stock
market, they often do it as a much smaller portion of their
portfolio instead investing up to 29 percent in alternative
assets (such as private market real estate). They understand
that most of the value is often extracted by the owners as
they take a company public. Combine this with the data
shown above that the market is already over-valued by
22 percent and the liquidity premium becomes even less
attractive. By comparison, less than 5 percent of investors
invest in alternatives –leaving major potential risks if market
corrections occur.
18 NYU’s Stern School of Business, “Private Company Valuations”, Dr. Aswath Damodaran 2017
AS MOST INVESTORS TAKE
A LONGER TERM BUY AND
HOLD APPROACH AND
ARE NOT IN NEED OF DAILY
LIQUIDITY, A CAREFUL
EXAMINATION OF THE
PREMIUM BEING CHARGED
FOR THIS LIQUIDITY MAY
BE IN ORDER.
14
Other demographic trends are pointing
to growth in the student housing
sector, as demand swells for new,
nicely-furnished alternatives to the
rundown college dorms and off-campus
homes. Steady increases in university
enrollments have also prompted
development in this sector.20
20 New York Times, ‘A Rush to Meet Rising Demand, and
Expectations, for Student Housing,’ 2017
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 	
Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2001
through Spring 2016.
Figure 11 - Actual and Projected Undergraduate Enrollment by
Sex: Fall 2000-2026Actual and projected undergraduate enrollment in degree-granঞng
postsecondary insঞtuঞons, by sex: Fall 2000-2026
Enrollment, in millions
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
11.0
8.3
9.5
7.5
Male
Female
Actual Projected
Figure 10 - U.S. Renter Population: Age 30-34 Cohort
At the same time, demand for
multifamily homes continues to look
favorable, with renter populations
expected to climb from now until 2041.
This is being peddled by Millennials,
who are choosing to marry and start
families later in life whilst brushing off
homeownership.19
19 Yardi, ‘U.S. Multifamily Investment Strategy & 2018 Outlook,’
2017
Renters Populaঞon is Expected to Grow
Demographics are in mulঞfamily’s favor over the long-term, especially in the
younger aged cohort.
U.S. Renter Populaঞon: Age 30-34 Cohort
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)
72,000,000
71,000,000
70,000,000
69,000,000
68,000,000
67,000,000
66,000,000
65,000,000
64,000,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
MULTIFAMILY OUTLOOK
Despite predictions for a looming recession, the outlook for the multifamily rental market remains bright.
U.S. macroeconomic conditions are solid and generating job growth of about 200,000 jobs per month,
which is enough to maintain multifamily occupancy and rent growth. Meanwhile, supply of multifamily
properties is slowing, and is expected to peak in 2018.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)
15
As for the senior living sector, the numbers are even more promising. The
65 and older population is expanding, with the aging of the Baby Boomers
population and improved longevity. This is only the beginning: by 2030,
21 percent of the population, or 74 million people, will be past retirement
age. As more people enter retirement, the more the labor force will
shrink, impacting the number of caregivers available to support the aging
population and putting a squeeze on existing housing and care options.
While the seniors housing inventory is growing by 22,000 per year, there
is still more in demand.21
These factors make us very bullish on senior
housing in the coming years.
At Upside Avenue, senior housing is one of our key target markets. We
have been closely examining markets that have favorable State and Local
Tax clients (aka SALT), favorable laws towards the aging population and
overall positive migration trends. We believe in looking at not only trends
in the larger market but also the best submarkets with the most favorable
overall prospects of growth. A word of caution—not all submarkets are
the same. Property is very local. It is very important that you have local
market expertise or partner with a team that does. Far too many online-
investment firms know very little about the markets and submarkets they
are placing client’s funds into. It is critical as an investor to do your due
diligence.
While the 2017 tax bill passed in late December is highly controversial, it
21 National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), ‘Aging and the U.S. Economy,’ 2016
21%
OF POPULATION
WILL BE
65+ BY 2030
16
for single filers will be able to take full advantage
of the new exception. The size of the 20 percent
deduction falls for joint-filers until $415,000
and $207,500 for single-fillers where it is totally
phased out.
This is especially promising for investors who
choose to take their returns in the form of
distributions—as it allows investors to add
additional passive income streams with less overall
tax liability.
The new tax code also preserves 1031 like-kind
exchanges, which give REIT managers the ability
to use the proceeds of one property sale to
immediately acquire another, without paying tax
on the proceeds. This is especially valuable when
looking at opportunistic and value add real estate
opportunities where there is opportunity for large
potential returns buying an underperforming multi-
housing asset, making improvement to the building
and occupancy, and selling it in a relatively short
period of time.
While the stock market is currently witnessing
IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2017 TAX BILL ON
MULTIFMILY REAL ESTATE
is widely agreed that this will have major positive
implications for the commercial real estate
markets.22
The National Realtors association
stated, “Congress has greatly reduced the value
of the mortgage interest and property tax
deductions as tax incentives for homeownership.”
Congressional estimates indicate that only 5-8% of
filers will now be eligible to claim these deductions
by itemizing, meaning there will be no tax
differential between renting and owning for more
than 90% of taxpayers.23
While we do not believe that the bottom will fall
out of the single-family housing market or that
wide portions of the population will stop buying
homes, we do believe that there will be an impact
22 NY Times, ‘Tax Plan Crowns a Big Winner: Trump’s Industry’, December 5th, 2017
23 National Association of Realtors, Issue Brief, ‘The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act - What it Means for Homeowners and Real Estate Professionals’ December 2017
on occupancy rates in multifamily markets as
people choose the freedom and flexibility of
renting now that ownership benefits have been
significantly reduced. This is especially true of
higher end class B and class A apartments.
In addition to potentially increasing occupancy,
the new tax laws also have a major impact on
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Under the
new tax laws, qualified business income paid to
owners or investors of pass-through businesses is
allowed up to a 20 percent exemption. This income
used to be taxed at the maximum 37 percent rate
but will now be taxed at a rate of 29.6 percent.
While there are limitations on that 20% based on
income brackets, the majority of investors making
below $315,000 filing jointly or below $157,000
17
THANKS TO THE 2012
JOBS ACT, INVESTORS
CAN INVEST AS LITTLE AS
$2,000 IN PRIVATE MARKET
REAL ESTATE.
WHAT’S NEXT?
unprecedented highs, many leading economists and
investment firms are predicting major twists and turns for the
years ahead.
Volatility, an over-priced stock market, promising real estate
growth indicators, and the generous tax breaks given to the
commercial real estate industry in the new GOP tax bill are
causing many institutional investors to increase their real
estate allocations in the coming year.24
While institutional investors are leading the way making
allocations to safer assets before the market turns, you do not
have to be rich to benefit from private market real estate.
Thanks to the new technology advances and provisions in the
2012 JOBS Act which recently went into effect—investors can
invest as little as $2,000 in private market real estate, investing
alongside billion-dollar institutions through platforms like
Upside Avenue. This gives investors the ability to benefit from
both ongoing passive income through distributions as well as
long term growth from appreciation and value add.
Technology and financial regulations are creating bigger
opportunities for diversification in to new asset classes that
most investors have not had direct access to. This is changing
what and how people invest.
Is your portfolio balanced and ready for the next down turn?
24 Bloomberg, Tax Overhaul Could Be Big Win for U.S. Real Estate Investors, 2017
18
©2018
UPSIDEAVENUE.COM
hello@upsideavenue.com

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Investing for Cash Flow

  • 1. 1 INVESTING FOR CASH FLOW The time for diversification is now
  • 2. 2 THROUGH THE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY, WE ARE A WEALTH CREATION VEHICLE THAT IMPROVES THE LIVES OF THE PEOPLE WE WORK FOR, THE PEOPLE WE WORK WITH, AND THE COMMUNITIES WE WORK WITHIN.
  • 3. 3 CONTENTS 04 06 INTRODUCTION THE BENEFITS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTING MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE: DEFINED MULITFAMILY ASSETS THE LIQUIDITY TRADE-OFF MULTIFAMILY OUTLOOK 07 08 13 14 HOW PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS HEDGE THEIR BETS12 2017 TAX CHANGES16 WHAT’S NEXT17 WHY MULTIFAMILY REITS09
  • 4. 4 The last decade has seen a transformation of the average American investor. During the 2008 financial crisis, when the stock market lost more than half of its value, many investors responded by taking their money out. And while the stock market has since made up for those losses, new research indicates many Americans are still not ready to reinvest. In 2007, about two-thirds of Americans were invested in the stock market. That figure dropped to about 50 percent by 20161 . Despite investors’ cautiousness toward stocks, the real estate market remains a favorite in the U.S. for the fourth consecutive year. A Gallup survey found that one-third of Americans say real estate is the best choice for long-term investment, beating out stocks and mutual funds.2 There is a reason for this; the real estate market has outperformed the stock market over a 16-year period. Between 2000 and 2016, the S&P 500 Index yielded a 5.43 percent annual total return3 while real estate returned 10.71 percent.4 1 Gallup, ‘U.S. Stock Ownership Down Among All but Older, Higher-Income,’ 2017 2 Gallup, ‘Americans Still Favor Real Estate for Long-Term Investment,’ 2017 3 Bloomberg and CBOE, ‘Month-end closing value’, 1986 - 2017 4 Nareit, ‘Monthly Index Values & Returns,’ 1972-2017 IN 2007, ABOUT TWO- THIRDS OF AMERICANS WERE INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET. THAT FIGURE DROPPED TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT BY 2016. IS YOUR PORTFOLIO READY FOR THE NEXT RECESSION?
  • 5. 5 Despite the benefits, there is one thing that may be holding investors back from truly reaping the financial rewards from owning rental properties. About 70 percent of Americans think investing in real estate is more difficult than investing in other asset classes.5 If an investor is going at it alone, this may be true, considering the process of purchasing a property does require research, negotiation and what may seem like hoop-jumping to obtain a loan. What many do not realize, however, is that there are several types of real estate investment strategies—ranging from hands- on acquisition and management to completely passive strategies, both of which allow investors to invest alongside billion-dollar institutions through private market real estate investing. Take the multifamily market as an example, which has not only withstood the economic downturns of the past and enjoyed high yields, but is poised to remain strong for years for come. This special report will seek to demystify the real estate market as well as provide an overview of the opportunities the passage of the 2012 JOBS Act has brought to all investors. 5 RealtyShares, ‘Report: 2017 Real Estate Investment Survey,’ 2017 American’s Choice of Best Long-Term Investment % Real estate % Stocks/Mutual funds % Gold % Savings accounts/CDs % Bonds SOURCE: GALLUP AUG 2011 APR 2012 APR 2013 APR 2014 APR 2015 APR 2016 APR 2017 Figure 1 - American’s Choice of Best Long-Term Investment Source: Gallop
  • 6. 6 Annualized Total Return Listed REITs Large Cap Stocks Small Cap Stocks Commodiঞes Corporate Bonds Government Bonds NPI 1.10 Sharpe Raঞo 0.45 Sharpe Raঞo Risk Free Rate Annualized Risk (Standard Deviaঞon) 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream; www.treasury.gov One of the most popular reasons why investors choose real estate is because it is a tangible investment. Unlike stocks, real estate assets can be seen and touched. This tangibility plays a role in the client having peace of mind and great control over the investment and its cash flow compared with other asset types. When many people think about investing, they think about buying a rental house. In an ideal situation, the landlord charges enough rent from tenants to cover the mortgage, taxes and maintenance of the property. The remaining cash can provide the investor with an entirely new income stream – if all goes well this cash flow can serve as protection against dips in the financial markets. While additional cash flow also exists in stock market investing, it is becoming less common. As a way to assure shareholders of their financial standing, some companies will offer dividends. However, fewer and fewer industries in the U.S. today offer regular and significant dividends.6 These payouts are also exposed to volatility – one of the biggest risks of the stock market. 6 RealtyShares, ‘Real Estate Marketplaces Can Potentially Address the “Missing Dividends” Problem,’ 2017 7 The Street, ‘Real Estate: Best-Performing Asset Class During the Past 20 Years’, 2016 It is true that slumps can occur as well in real estate, but those who invest in residential properties typically lease them for many years and can at times avoid experiencing falls in rent. In addition to cash flow, real estate investors can profit from increases in property value when they choose to sell, thanks to its appreciation. Even the slightest upgrade to a property can significantly increase the price and enhance the return on investment. Lastly, real estate has been dubbed the best performing asset class over the past 20 years by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trust Index, beating out stocks, bonds, diversified portfolios, commodities and cash. While the publicly traded real estate market delivered higher returns, it is also associated with higher volatility. That is why the Sharpe Ratio is used in Figure 2 to characterize performance. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates a higher return per each unit of risk, which is exactly what the private real estate market delivers.7 Figure 2 – 20-Year Return and Risk Profile Across Major Asset Classes THE BENEFITS OF REAL ESTATE INVESTING REAL ESTATE BEST PERFORMING ASSET CLASS as ranked by NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST INDEX
  • 7. 7 When it comes to residential property, there are two main categories that homes generally fall into: single-family and multifamily. Single-family properties are those with one unit available to rent, such as houses and condominiums, while multifamily properties are buildings with more than one rentable unit, such as apartment complexes. While single-family properties are usually more affordable, if you plan on purchasing the entire property, there are several reasons why multifamily properties tend to be the better investment. And with the passage of new security laws, you no longer have to be an accredited investor to be able to invest alongside big institutions, as there are multi-family opportunities starting at $2,000. When a tenant moves out of a single-family property, that home would become 100 percent vacant. In contrast, a tenant leaving a 100- unit property would only make it 1 percent vacant, thereby diversifying the overall risk of the investment. This diversification can provide additional protection in the event of a downturn or other factors outside of an owner’s control. One of the other major benefits of multifamily investing is the downside protection of your most important asset – your time. Most multifamily investments engage professional property management services, which can come in handy if fixing toilets is not a pastime you enjoy. Unless you are buying a multifamily apartment complex direct, you will likely additionally have asset management services built in as well. Asset management firms (which are typically run by the investment firm which purchases the property) typically have decades or even centuries of experience in-house. Upside Avenue’s parent company The PPA Group, for example, has hundreds of years in combined experience within the multifamily market and has transacted more than $1 billion in multifamily properties over the last 15 years. This experience creates an environment where you have deep expertise managing the health of the overall investment. Asset management firms work alongside the property management team to ensure the property is running as it should be, given economic and local market conditions. Most sophisticated investment firms are “vertically integrated”, meaning they have asset management and property management in-house – increasing overall economics of scale. Upside Avenue is part of a vertically integrated organization, having a property management company, an asset management company, a construction company and a utility billing company all under one roof. Nearly all large multifamily properties have professional asset management (if they were purchased through an investment firm). This creates a process which results in truly passive income for investors, as they often need to do little more than monitor investments with their financial advisors and collect distribution checks. MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE: DEFINED
  • 8. 8 In the U.S., multifamily is often broken down by “asset class”. An asset class is a categorization of the overall age, condition and area. Properties are typically labeled Class A, B, C or D. CLASS A Class A properties are usually new, upscale apartment buildings with high-end amenities, and are often less than 10 years old. This class is known to have high average rents and be located in desirable geographic areas. These buildings are typically home to professionals and white-collar workers, who choose to rent by choice. While very pretty to look at, however, these types of properties can be most affected by recessionary trends. CLASS B & C Class B and C properties, on the other hand, attract a wide demographic, from working-class individuals to Millennials entering the market to downsizing Baby Boomers. These properties often have a mix of white and blue-collar workers and tend to offer residents the most bang for their buck, attracting renters even in a down economy. Tenants can range in age from 10 to 30-year-olds and are often located in desirable buildings in well-established middle-income neighborhoods. CLASS D Class D properties are often home to tenants 35 years or older and are located in run-down or low socioeconomic areas. They often house many Section 8 (government-subsidized) tenants. While the building’s age is a factor, it is not as important as the building’s overall condition and area. For example, you can have a beautifully renovated yet historic building in a desirable area and it will be classified as an A or B building. In a recent op-ed in the Multifamily Executive Magazine, Upside Avenue CEO Yuen Yung shared his views on asset class selection for portfolio balance. He says as renters are priced out of Class A apartments in a down or volatile economy, vacancies will inevitably increase. And that’s exactly what’s happening today. The national vacancy rate (which takes into account all classes of apartments) rose by 10 basis points in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.3 percent. Conversely, affordable multifamily housing vacancies clocked in at a low 1.7 percent. Class A properties are also costly to build and often come with a high property tax price tag, making the upfront investment for these properties quite significant. Even so, Class A apartment construction is at the peak of a seven-year high, according to The Wall Street Journal. This has led to a sudden oversupply of luxury apartments, which in turn has made Class A properties less profitable across the board. Meanwhile, Class B and C properties also allow real estate investors the opportunity to enjoy a significant lift in NOI by making small property improvements. 4.3% Q1 2017 NATIONAL VACANCY RATE 1.7% Q1 2017 AFFORDABLE MULTIFAMILY HOUSING VACANCY RATE MULTIFAMILY ASSET CLASSES
  • 9. 9 The multifamily rental sector is famous for having outperformed other sectors in the housing market, especially during the global economic downturn that began in 2007. This sector was also one of the quickest to recover from the recession. By 2013, multifamily housing starts had already returned more than 70 percent of their pre-recession peak, while single-family housing starts had only recovered a small amount of their recession low.8 Figure 3 shows the multifamily index values compared with other primary property types— including industrial, retail and office—and demonstrates the quick recovery relative to other asset types within the sector. Since then, growth has continued. Throughout 2016, the multifamily market kept up with its above-average performance while disproving previous predictions of higher vacancy rates. Despite moderation in rent, growth remained above the historical average in 2016.9 8 Economics and Statistics Administration, ‘Understanding the Trend in Multifamily Housing Growth During the Recovery,’ 2013 9 Freddie Mac, ‘Multifamily 2017 Outlook: Positioned for Further Growth,’ 2017 Examples of these value-adds include putting in communal clubhouses, adding dog parks, and offering community events. These upgrades to B and C apartments can be relatively inexpensive to implement yet can generate higher rents, leading to rapid ROI growth. Upside Avenue has a 15-year track record of investing in A, B and C properties through its parent company, The PPA Group. The PPA Group believes in a diversified balance of multifamily, senior living and student housing across A, B and C asset classes across the nation creates a winning strategy. WHY MULTIFAMILY REITS U.S. Primary Property Type Quarterly Indices - Equal Weighted, Data through December of 2012 1996 U.S. Industrial U.S. Retail U.S. Mulঞfamily 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2003 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 U.S. Office 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Source: CoStar, ‘U.S. commercial real estate posts record gain in sales volume and broadening pricing recovery to close 2012.’ Figure 3 - U.S. Primary Property Type Quarterly Indices - Equal Weighted, Data through December 2012 PEOPLE ALWAYS NEED A PLACE TO LIVE
  • 10. 10 Even brighter predictions are set for 2018 and beyond, especially for such subsectors as apartments, senior living and student housing properties, which are best known for their high yields. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, apartments have the highest risk- adjusted investment returns compared to other property types, and have proven to be the most resilient during economic downturns. In addition, apartments have shorter leases than other property types, allowing them to more quickly 10 NMHC, ‘Research: A Case for Investing in U.S. Apartments.’ 11 NMHC, ‘Investors Favor Student Housing’s Economic Resiliency,’ 2017 12 AEW Research, ‘Seniors Housing Investment Opportunity,’ 2015 adjust to changing market environments.10 The U.S. student housing market is also considered something of a safe haven amid global economic uncertainty, due to continued enrolment growth at four-year universities and colleges as well as more controlled supply growth.11 Meanwhile, the senior housing sector too has proven to be recession-resistant. While occupancy rates fell during the Great Recession, rent growth remained positive during the downturn.12 Figure 4 shows that the annual total return through the first quarter of 2017 for senior housing properties Figure 4 - NCREIF Annualized Total Returns by Property Type (Period Ending 3/31/17) Source: NCREIF, NIC MAP* Data Services NCREIF Annualized Total Returns By Property Type (Period Ending 3/31/17) One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years NPI Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail Senior Housing 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: NCREIF, NIC MAP* Data Services
  • 11. 11 was 12.05 percent, overshadowing the 7.27 percent result of the NCREIF Property Index (NPI).13 This trend is expected to only continue as demographic shifts cause a greater need for senior housing. Currently, around 1 million Americans live in some type of senior living community. As illustrated in figure 5, that number is expected to double by the year 2030. By the year 2040, the 85+ population is expected to nearly triple from 5.7 million to 14.1 million.14 At the time of writing this paper, we are in the midst of an unprecedented stock market boom, but many have already begun predicting the start of the next economic decline. MarketWatch, for example, is reporting U.S. stocks are more expensive than other closely watched markets like Europe or emerging markets—which don’t look particularly cheap themselves—and based on the relative strength index, or RSI, the S&P is at its most overbought level in 22 years. With stocks performing exceptionally well, many financial advisors are advising clients to diversify and not be complacent15 —lest they repeat the mistakes of 1999 and 2007. Many forecasts for the next recession are based on the length of the current recovery, which is now one of the longest expansions on record. A quick look at Figure 6 would suggest the end is indeed near. Upside’s sister company Casoro Capital, partners with institutional, family office and ultra-high-net-worth investors. We are hearing from a large percentage of our partners that they are looking to ‘hedge their bets’ by placing more money in assets that 13 NCREIF, ‘Seniors housing returns moderate, but continue to outpace NPI,’ 2017 14 Census Bureau, An Aging Nation: The Older Population in the United States, 2014 15 Kiplinger, ‘Now more than ever it’s time to diversify’, December 2017 IS IT TIME TO TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN? Populaঞon Aged 65 and Over for the United States: 2012 to 2050 Millions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2012 2015 2020 2025 20352030 2040 2045 2050 Figure 5 - Population Aged 65 and Over for the United States: 2012 to 2050 ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN MONTHS NOTE: BOTTOM DATES ARE END OF RECESSION AND TOP DATES ARE BEGINNING OF NEXT RECESSION NOV-48 OCT-45 JUL-53 OCT-49 AUG-57 MAY-54 APR-60 APR-58 DEC-69 FEB-61 NOV-73 NOV-70 JAN-80 MAR-75 JUL-90 DEC-82 MAR-01 MAR-91 DEC-07 NOV-01 APR-17 JUL-09 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 91 120 73 93 Source: Axiometrics Figure 6 - Economic Expansion in Months Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Population Estimates and 2012 National Projections
  • 12. 12 have a proven track record of real yield—in the case of a musical chairs economy no one wants to be left with all their eggs in the stock-market basket. Additional data that our team of market experts has been examining is unemployment data. When the unemployment rate falls below 5 percent, and it has since January 2016, history shows a recession usually follows within the next two to three years. Figure 7, for instance, shows that when the unemployment rate sunk below 5 percent in December 2005, the Great Recession followed in January 2008—just 25 months later.16 16 AXIOMetrics, ‘Is a recession near?’, 2017 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AS A PREDICTOR OF RECESSION Natural Rate of Employment Monthly Unemployment Rate Recession 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Figure 7 - Unemployment Rate as a Predictor of Recession What are the reasons you invest in real assets outside of real estate? Diversification from Other Asset Classes Inflation Hedge Stable Income Flows Overall Higher Returns 100.0% 92.9% 64.3% 35.7% SOURCE: Pension Real Estate Association Figure 8 - Why Real Estate Source: CPension Real Estate Association HOW PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS HEDGE THEIR BETS Large institutions, like pension funds, insurance carriers, and endowments, manage market risk for a huge population of investors. A major part of their strategy is holding alternative assets, such as real estate that produce on-going real yield (aka income). In their 2017 survey Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) members reported having an average of 9 percent of their holdings in private market, non-traded real estate.17 Institutional and professional investors understand the importance of diversification. While the stock market may be good now, we have seen the bottom drop out with little warning. 17 Pension Real Estate Association, ‘Investor Report’ As Figure 8 demonstrates, by allocating a portion of their investment portfolio, investors are able to reap a number of benefits including diversification from other asset classes, inflation hedging, and providing stable income flows. This strategy has paid off. As of 2015, the average equity mutual fund investor earned a 30-year annual return of roughly 3.7%. By contrast, the Yale endowment generated an approximate 13% annual return over the past 30 years. While Yale is one example of superior returns, they are not alone in their overall satisfaction with commercial real estate. Source: Axiometrics
  • 13. 13 THE LIQUIDITY TRADE-OFF: COST VS REWARD There can be some initial apprehension about investing in less liquid assets. However, the cost that many investors are paying for liquidity that they are not often using is usually not worth the price tag for many investors. Having non-market correlated alternative assets such as private market real estate in one’s portfolio is a hedge against systematic risk inflation and stock market downturns. Which, could otherwise have double digit losses across both stocks and bonds in a single day if a market adjustment occurs. These benefits only increase when compounded by diversifying across markets and assets types. Nearly all companies start as private companies, and when they go public they rarely significantly increase the value of the underlying assets—however the price of those assets (or the stock price) often goes way up. This price is marked up to pay for increased regulatory costs, daily liquidity and is often highly correlated to the overall stock-market, meaning you could be severely over-paying just because the market is over-heated. Because public markets have heavy disclosure requirements as well as teams of analysts often covering them, there is often little potential for information arbitrage (using information to find additional value in a stock). That is not the case in the private markets like real estate, where local market expertise, economies of scale from vertical integration and other factors lead to ability to increase value without increasing price. According to a report entitled “Private Company Valuations” published by NYU’s Stern Business School, the illiquidity discount for private firms often ranges from 20-30 percent.18 As most investors take a longer term buy and hold approach and are not in need of daily liquidity, a careful examination of the premium being charged for this liquidity may be in order. While institutional investors do invest in the stock market, they often do it as a much smaller portion of their portfolio instead investing up to 29 percent in alternative assets (such as private market real estate). They understand that most of the value is often extracted by the owners as they take a company public. Combine this with the data shown above that the market is already over-valued by 22 percent and the liquidity premium becomes even less attractive. By comparison, less than 5 percent of investors invest in alternatives –leaving major potential risks if market corrections occur. 18 NYU’s Stern School of Business, “Private Company Valuations”, Dr. Aswath Damodaran 2017 AS MOST INVESTORS TAKE A LONGER TERM BUY AND HOLD APPROACH AND ARE NOT IN NEED OF DAILY LIQUIDITY, A CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF THE PREMIUM BEING CHARGED FOR THIS LIQUIDITY MAY BE IN ORDER.
  • 14. 14 Other demographic trends are pointing to growth in the student housing sector, as demand swells for new, nicely-furnished alternatives to the rundown college dorms and off-campus homes. Steady increases in university enrollments have also prompted development in this sector.20 20 New York Times, ‘A Rush to Meet Rising Demand, and Expectations, for Student Housing,’ 2017 Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2001 through Spring 2016. Figure 11 - Actual and Projected Undergraduate Enrollment by Sex: Fall 2000-2026Actual and projected undergraduate enrollment in degree-granঞng postsecondary insঞtuঞons, by sex: Fall 2000-2026 Enrollment, in millions 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 11.0 8.3 9.5 7.5 Male Female Actual Projected Figure 10 - U.S. Renter Population: Age 30-34 Cohort At the same time, demand for multifamily homes continues to look favorable, with renter populations expected to climb from now until 2041. This is being peddled by Millennials, who are choosing to marry and start families later in life whilst brushing off homeownership.19 19 Yardi, ‘U.S. Multifamily Investment Strategy & 2018 Outlook,’ 2017 Renters Populaঞon is Expected to Grow Demographics are in mulঞfamily’s favor over the long-term, especially in the younger aged cohort. U.S. Renter Populaঞon: Age 30-34 Cohort SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC) 72,000,000 71,000,000 70,000,000 69,000,000 68,000,000 67,000,000 66,000,000 65,000,000 64,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 MULTIFAMILY OUTLOOK Despite predictions for a looming recession, the outlook for the multifamily rental market remains bright. U.S. macroeconomic conditions are solid and generating job growth of about 200,000 jobs per month, which is enough to maintain multifamily occupancy and rent growth. Meanwhile, supply of multifamily properties is slowing, and is expected to peak in 2018. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)
  • 15. 15 As for the senior living sector, the numbers are even more promising. The 65 and older population is expanding, with the aging of the Baby Boomers population and improved longevity. This is only the beginning: by 2030, 21 percent of the population, or 74 million people, will be past retirement age. As more people enter retirement, the more the labor force will shrink, impacting the number of caregivers available to support the aging population and putting a squeeze on existing housing and care options. While the seniors housing inventory is growing by 22,000 per year, there is still more in demand.21 These factors make us very bullish on senior housing in the coming years. At Upside Avenue, senior housing is one of our key target markets. We have been closely examining markets that have favorable State and Local Tax clients (aka SALT), favorable laws towards the aging population and overall positive migration trends. We believe in looking at not only trends in the larger market but also the best submarkets with the most favorable overall prospects of growth. A word of caution—not all submarkets are the same. Property is very local. It is very important that you have local market expertise or partner with a team that does. Far too many online- investment firms know very little about the markets and submarkets they are placing client’s funds into. It is critical as an investor to do your due diligence. While the 2017 tax bill passed in late December is highly controversial, it 21 National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), ‘Aging and the U.S. Economy,’ 2016 21% OF POPULATION WILL BE 65+ BY 2030
  • 16. 16 for single filers will be able to take full advantage of the new exception. The size of the 20 percent deduction falls for joint-filers until $415,000 and $207,500 for single-fillers where it is totally phased out. This is especially promising for investors who choose to take their returns in the form of distributions—as it allows investors to add additional passive income streams with less overall tax liability. The new tax code also preserves 1031 like-kind exchanges, which give REIT managers the ability to use the proceeds of one property sale to immediately acquire another, without paying tax on the proceeds. This is especially valuable when looking at opportunistic and value add real estate opportunities where there is opportunity for large potential returns buying an underperforming multi- housing asset, making improvement to the building and occupancy, and selling it in a relatively short period of time. While the stock market is currently witnessing IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2017 TAX BILL ON MULTIFMILY REAL ESTATE is widely agreed that this will have major positive implications for the commercial real estate markets.22 The National Realtors association stated, “Congress has greatly reduced the value of the mortgage interest and property tax deductions as tax incentives for homeownership.” Congressional estimates indicate that only 5-8% of filers will now be eligible to claim these deductions by itemizing, meaning there will be no tax differential between renting and owning for more than 90% of taxpayers.23 While we do not believe that the bottom will fall out of the single-family housing market or that wide portions of the population will stop buying homes, we do believe that there will be an impact 22 NY Times, ‘Tax Plan Crowns a Big Winner: Trump’s Industry’, December 5th, 2017 23 National Association of Realtors, Issue Brief, ‘The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act - What it Means for Homeowners and Real Estate Professionals’ December 2017 on occupancy rates in multifamily markets as people choose the freedom and flexibility of renting now that ownership benefits have been significantly reduced. This is especially true of higher end class B and class A apartments. In addition to potentially increasing occupancy, the new tax laws also have a major impact on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Under the new tax laws, qualified business income paid to owners or investors of pass-through businesses is allowed up to a 20 percent exemption. This income used to be taxed at the maximum 37 percent rate but will now be taxed at a rate of 29.6 percent. While there are limitations on that 20% based on income brackets, the majority of investors making below $315,000 filing jointly or below $157,000
  • 17. 17 THANKS TO THE 2012 JOBS ACT, INVESTORS CAN INVEST AS LITTLE AS $2,000 IN PRIVATE MARKET REAL ESTATE. WHAT’S NEXT? unprecedented highs, many leading economists and investment firms are predicting major twists and turns for the years ahead. Volatility, an over-priced stock market, promising real estate growth indicators, and the generous tax breaks given to the commercial real estate industry in the new GOP tax bill are causing many institutional investors to increase their real estate allocations in the coming year.24 While institutional investors are leading the way making allocations to safer assets before the market turns, you do not have to be rich to benefit from private market real estate. Thanks to the new technology advances and provisions in the 2012 JOBS Act which recently went into effect—investors can invest as little as $2,000 in private market real estate, investing alongside billion-dollar institutions through platforms like Upside Avenue. This gives investors the ability to benefit from both ongoing passive income through distributions as well as long term growth from appreciation and value add. Technology and financial regulations are creating bigger opportunities for diversification in to new asset classes that most investors have not had direct access to. This is changing what and how people invest. Is your portfolio balanced and ready for the next down turn? 24 Bloomberg, Tax Overhaul Could Be Big Win for U.S. Real Estate Investors, 2017