Investigation of Online Students Withdraw Rates from Social Science Cour...

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Investigation of Online Students Withdraw Rates from Social Science Courses (Fall 2011-Spring 2016)
Bradley Coverdale
Research Associate
Learning Outcomes Assessment
2/8/17

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Research Questions:
1. What is the withdraw trend of students enrolled in online social science courses compared to
face-to face?
a. In which term(s) are students most likely to withdraw?
b. When during the semester do students withdraw from social science courses?
c. From which social science course(s) are students most likely to withdraw?
2. What is the relationship between gender, age range, developmental status, enrollment status,
cumulative GPA, courses completed, and withdraw rate?
Data Needed:
1. Course Level:
a. Instruction Type (Online, Hybrid, Face-to-Face,Other Distance Learning)
b. Term Taken (between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016) 1
c. Total number of students enrolled
2. Student Level
a. Student ID
b. Course Section
c. Gender
d. Age Range (based on end of term data)
e. Developmental Status (as of census date during enrolled term)
f. Cumulative GPA at the end of enrolled term
g. Courses Completed at the end of the enrolled term
h. Withdraw Rate
i. Week of Semester Withdrawn2
j. Course Grade
____________________________________________________________________________________
1
Winter and Summer terms were removed from theanalysis due to theshort length and theinability to adequately determine in
which week of thesemester students withdrew, as courses vary in length depending on meeting times.
2
Withdrawn week assumes that course is offered for 15 weeks in thesemester with a start date of thefirst Saturday of the
semester and an end date of the last Friday in the semester.

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Social Science Course Withdraw Rates by Instruction Method between Fall 2011-Spring 2016 (fall
and spring semesters only)
Comparing the results of Table 1 and Table 2 reveals that the withdraw rate of online students is almost
double the withdraw rate of students who enroll in the course on campus (10.7% vs. 6.0%). There is also
a higher rate of success (A-C) for students who enroll in the face-to-face course (77.5%) compared to
students who take the course online (66.4%). While Table 3 does show that students who enrolled in the
hybrid course appear to have a lower withdraw rate (7.7% vs. 10.7%) than the online students, as well as
a higher rate success (69.0% vs. 66.4%), one needs to bear in mind that more students enrolled in the
online course compared to the hybrid, which may distort the findings based on discrepancies in group
size. Students who participated in other distance learning type courses (Table 4), such as television or
correspondence courses,had similar rates of success as the online students (66.2% vs. 66.4%) but higher
withdraw rates (11.3% vs. 10.7%). For the purpose of this report, all comparisons by instruction type
going forward will compare only students in face-to-face and online courses. Students who participated in
hybrid or other distance learning courses, however, will be included in overall totals.
Table 1: Face-to-Face
Course Grade Frequency Percent
A-C 32,380 77.5%
D 2,114 5.1%
F 4,387 10.5%
I or N/A 409 0.8%
W 2,491 6.0%
Total 41,781 99.9%
Note: Percentage may not add to 100% due to rounding
Table 2: Online
A-C 4,073 66.4%
D 286 4.7%
F 970 15.8%
I or N/A 143 2.3%
W 659 10.7%
Total 6,131 99.9%
Table 3: Hybrid
A-C 732 69.0%
D 37 3.5%
F 141 13.3%
I or N/A 69 6.5%
W 82 7.7%
Total 1,061 100.0%
Table 4: Other Distance Learning
A-C 468 66.2%
D 38 5.4%
F 114 16.1%
I or N/A 7 1.0%
W 80 11.3%
Total 707 100.0%
In which term(s) are students most likely to withdraw?
Table 5 shows that most students either withdrew in Spring 2012 (11.5%) or Fall 2011 (11.4%). There
also was a decline in the percentage of withdrawn students from social science courses,from 7.6% of all
enrolled students in Spring 2012 to 5.1% of enrolled students in Spring 2016. This would suggest that
despite lower enrollment in Spring 2016 (4,461 students) compared to Spring 2012 (5,059 students), more
students are remaining enrolled. This pattern is also reflected with the face-to-face students in Table 6
(6.7% of all enrolled students in Spring 2012 compared to 4.2% in Spring 2016) as well as online (14.3%
of all enrolled students in Spring 2012 compared to 9.0% in Spring 2016) in Table 7.
Table 5: Social Science Withdraw Frequencies and Rates by Enrolled Term (Overall)

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Enrolled Term Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled That Term
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew During
Enrolled Term
Fall 2011 376 11.4% 5,155 7.3%
Spring 2012 382 11.5% 5,059 7.6%
Fall 2012 340 10.3% 5,166 6.6%
Spring 2013 363 11.0% 4,922 7.4%
Fall 2013 331 10.0% 5,143 6.4%
Spring 2014 304 9.2% 4,943 6.2%
Fall 2014 361 10.9% 5,163 7.0%
Spring 2015 336 10.1% 4,928 6.8%
Fall 2015 292 8.8% 4,740 6.2%
Spring 2016 227 6.9% 4,461 5.1%
TOTAL 3,312 100.1% 49,680 6.7%
Table 6: Social Science Withdraw Frequencies and Rates by Enrolled Term (Face-to-Face)
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled That Term
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew During
Enrolled Term
Fall 2011 315 12.6% 4,495 7.0%
Spring 2012 286 11.5% 4,300 6.7%
Fall 2012 268 10.8% 4,445 6.0%
Spring 2013 276 11.1% 4,154 6.6%
Fall 2013 250 10.0% 4,409 5.7%
Spring 2014 223 9.0% 4,122 5.4%
Fall 2014 278 11.2% 4,359 6.4%
Spring 2015 231 9.3% 4,042 5.7%
Fall 2015 213 8.6% 3,877 5.5%
Spring 2016 151 6.1% 3,578 4.2%
TOTAL 2,491 100.2% 41,781 6.0%

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Table 7: Social Science Withdraw Frequencies and Rates by Enrolled Term (Online)
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled That Term
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew During
Enrolled Term
Fall 2011 28 4.2% 241 11.6%
Spring 2012 40 6.1% 279 14.3%
Fall 2012 64 9.7% 642 10.0%
Spring 2013 77 11.7% 653 11.8%
Fall 2013 72 10.9% 637 11.3%
Spring 2014 76 11.5% 711 10.7%
Fall 2014 69 10.5% 679 10.2%
Spring 2015 91 13.8% 754 12.1%
Fall 2015 73 11.1% 769 9.5%
Spring 2016 69 10.5% 766 9.0%
TOTAL 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%
When during the semester do students withdraw from social science courses?
For this investigation, week of dismissal is based on the week of the student’s last enrolled date. The
timeframe for calculating the week of withdrawal is determined by the semester start date,usually the 1st
Saturday in the semester. Week of withdrawalassumes that all social science courses are 15 week
courses.
Within the above parameters,most students withdraw from their course during week 10 in the semester
(22.6%, see Table 8). Since students only have until the 10th
week of the semester to withdraw without
penalty, it makes sense that most of the students leave the course at that time. These findings were also
reflected when separating the results by instruction type (Tables 9 and 10).
Table 8: Week of Withdraw from Social Science Courses (Overall)
Week Withdrawn Number Withdrawn Percent
Week 10 748 22.6%
Week 8 382 11.5%
Week 11 370 11.2%
Week 9 368 11.1%
Week 7 358 10.8%
Week 6 328 9.9%
Week 5 312 9.4%
Week 4 296 8.9%
Other Weeks 151 4.6%
Total 3,313 100.0%

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Table 9: Week of Withdraw from Social Science Courses (Face-to-Face)
Week 10 577 23.2%
Week 11 302 12.1%
Week 7 270 10.8%
Week 9 266 10.7%
Week 6 264 10.6%
Week 8 263 10.6%
Week 5 237 9.5%
Week 4 211 8.5%
Other Weeks 101 4.0%
Total 2,491 100.0%
Table 10: Week of Withdraw from Social Science Courses (Online)
Week 10 135 20.5%
Week 8 100 15.2%
Week 9 93 14.1%
Week 7 72 10.9%
Week 4 62 9.4%
Week 5 58 8.8%
Week 6 51 7.7%
Week 11 50 7.6%
Other Weeks 38 5.8%
Total 659 100.0%
From which social science course(s) are students most likely to withdraw?
The results in Table 6 indicate that nearly 70% of all students who withdrew from a social science course
were enrolled in one or more of the below courses,with PSYC-101 having the largest percentage of
withdrawn students (15.1%). However, two notes should be made 1) PSYC-101 is the second highest
enrolled social science course (6,654 students), and 2) the percent of students who withdrew from a
course ranged between approximately 5-10% of all enrolled students regardless of course.

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Table 11: Top 10 Social Science courses that students withdrew from between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016
(N=3,312)
Course Name Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn(*)
Total Students
Enrolled in Course
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course
PSYC-101 499 15.1% 6,654 7.5%
SOCI-101 371 11.2% 6,690 5.5%
HIST-111 279 8.4% 3,207 8.7%
HIST-112 243 7.3% 3,014 8.1%
ECON-101 242 7.3% 2,769 8.7%
HMDV-200 143 4.3% 1,479 9.7%
HIST-121 126 3.8% 1,450 8.7%
CRIM-101 122 3.7% 1,606 7.6%
HIST-123 121 3.7% 1,690 7.2%
ECON-102 116 3.5% 1,828 6.3%
Do withdraw rates differ by student characteristics?
GENDER
Examining withdraw rates by gender reveals that although more females than males withdrew from social
science courses between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016 (55.9% vs. 44.1%), there is little difference in the
overall percentage made up of withdrawn students for each gender (6.6% vs. 6.8%). Filtering the results
by instruction type shows that less males withdrew than females in both face-to-face (47.8% vs. 52.2%)
as well as online social science courses (25.6% vs 74.4%). However,when comparing the percentage of
withdrawn students to all enrolled students by gender, male students had a larger percentage of withdrawn
students than females for both face-to-face instruction (6.3% vs. 5.7%) as well as online (11.4% vs.
10.5%).
Table 12: Withdraw rates by Gender (Overall)
(*) 11 students did not list a gender
Gender Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled in
Course (*)
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by Gender
Female 1,852 55.9% 28,181 6.6%
Male 1,460 44.1% 21,488 6.8%
Total 3,312 100.0% 49,669 6.7%

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Table 13: Withdraw rates by Gender (Face-To-Face)
(*) 11 students did not list a gender.
Table 14: Withdraw rates by Gender (Online)
AGE
Examining withdraw rates by age indicates that over 75% of students who withdrew from social science
courses were either 20-24 (50.5%) or 25-29 (26.9%). These two age groups also comprised most of the
students enrolled. Comparing withdrawn students to all enrolled students in the age bracket revealed that
25-29 year olds have the largest representage of students who withdrew (8.3%). There were similar
results for 25-29 year old students found when separating students by instruction type for both face-to-
face (7.4%) and online (12.3%).
Table 15: Withdraw rates by Age (Overall)
(*) 3 students did not report age
Gender Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled in
Course (*)
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by Gender
Female 1,300 52.2% 22,791 5.7%
Male 1,191 47.8% 18,979 6.3%
Total 2,491 100.0% 41,770 6.0%
Gender Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled in
Course
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by Gender
Female 453 74.4% 4,329 10.5%
Male 206 25.6% 1,802 11.4%
Total 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%
Age Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled by
Age Band (*)
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by Age
<16-19 67 2.0% 1,726 3.9%
20-24 1,674 50.5% 28,198 5.9%
25-29 891 26.9% 10,723 8.3%
30-34 274 8.3% 3,441 8.0%
35-39 153 4.6% 1,945 7.9%
40-44 98 3.0% 1,269 7.7%
45-49 56 1.7% 959 5.8%
50-59 69 2.1% 1027 6.7%
60 > 30 0.9% 389 7.7%
Total 3, 312 100.0% 49,677 6.7%

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Table 16: Withdraw rates by Age (Face-to-Face)
(*) 1 student did not report age
Table 17: Withdraw rates by Age (Online)
(*) 1 student did not report age
RACE/ETHNICITY
Examining withdraw rates by race and ethnicity shows that while White students were the largest
withdrawn population, and thus, the greatest percentage of total withdrawn (40.8%), both Black/African
American 7.8%) and Other students (7.9%) had similar representations of withdrawn students compared
to the population as White students (8.0%). Filtering by instruction type further reveals that Black/African
American students have a higher representation of withdrawn students than White students in both face-
to-face (6.6% vs. 5.4%) as well as online courses (13.3% vs. 9.2%). While these findings may appear
misleading, the discrepancy can be explained by the fact that more White students were enrolled than any
other race or ethnicity, and as a result, more White students had an opportunity to withdraw. Comparing
percentage of student withdrawal to enrolled population for each race or ethnicity is a better
representation.
Age Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled by
Age Band
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by Age
<16-19 59 2.4% 1,569 3.8%
20-24 1,404 56.4% 25,436 5.5%
25-29 628 25.2% 8,536 7.4%
30-34 157 6.3% 2,409 6.5%
35-39 79 3.2% 1,264 6.3%
40-44 58 2.3% 850 6.8%
45-49 37 1.5% 692 5.3%
50-59 47 1.9% 730 6.4%
60 > 22 0.8% 294 7.5%
Total 2,491 100.0% 41,780 6.0%
Age Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Total Students
Enrolled by
Age Band (*)
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by Age
<16-19 6 0.9% 116 5.2%
20-24 221 33.5% 2,145 10.3%
25-29 202 30.7% 1,640 12.3%
30-34 98 14.9% 813 12.1%
35-39 59 9.0% 547 10.8%
40-44 30 4.6% 342 8.8%
45-49 19 2.9% 218 8.7%
50-59 17 2.5% 230 7.4%
60 > 7 1.0% 79 8.9%
Total 659 100.0% 6,130 10.7%

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Table 18: Withdraw rates by Race/Ethnicity (Overall)
(*) American Indian, Native Hawaiian, No Response, Two or MoreRaces
Table 19: Withdraw rates by Race/Ethnicity (Face-to-Face)
Table 20: Withdraw rates by Race/Ethnicity (Online)
ENROLLMENT STATUS
Evaluating withdraw rates by enrollment status (Table 21) indicates that while returning students
comprised of the largest group of withdrawn students (79.5%), re-admit students, had the highest
Race/Ethnicity Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of
Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Race/Ethnicity
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 390 11.8% 6,038 6.5%
Black/African American 987 29.8% 12,679 7.8%
Hispanic 318 9.6% 4,874 6.5%
White 1,353 40.8% 22,764 8.0%
Other (*) 264 8.0% 3,325 7.9%
Total 3,312 100.0% 49,680 6.7%
Withdrawn Students
Percent of
Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Race/Ethnicity
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 316 12.7% 5,044 6.3%
Hispanic 259 10.4% 4,269 6.1%
White 1,041 41.8% 19,234 5.4%
Other (*) 185 7.4% 2,766 6.7%
Total 2,491 100.0% 41,721 6.0%
Withdrawn Students
Percent of
Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Race/Ethnicity
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 55 8.3% 700 7.9%
Hispanic 49 7.4% 454 10.8%
White 253 38.4% 2,743 9.2%
Other (*) 63 9.6% 440 14.3%
Total 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%

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percentage of withdrawn students compared to the enrolled population for that group (8.4%). Re-admit
students are defined as those who leave HCC for at least two years before re-enrolling. Table 22 reveals
that re-admit students also had the largest contribution of withdrawn students compared to the group
population for students enrolled in face-to-face courses (8.8%). Table 23 shows that online students who
transfer (10.2%) or enrolled in a previous semester (11.1%) had the highest contribution of withdrawn
students compared to the enrolled population.
Table 21: Withdraw rates by Enrollment Status (Overall)
(*) Students who left HCC for at least 2 years before enrolling again
Table 22: Withdraw rates by Enrollment Status (Face-to-Face)
Table 23: Withdraw rates by Enrollment Status (Online)
Enrollment Status Frequency of
Withdrawn Students
Percent of
Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Enrollment
Status
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Enrollment Status
First-Time College 301 9.1% 5,298 5.7%
Transfer 274 8.3% 3,959 6.9%
Re-Admit(*) 103 3.1% 1,223 8.4%
Returning 2,634 79.5% 39,200 6.7%
Total 3,312 100.0% 49,680 6.7%
Withdrawn Students
Percent of
Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Enrollment
Status
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Enrollment Status
First-Time College 276 11.1% 4,945 5.6%
Transfer 185 7.4% 3,072 6.0%
Re-Admit(*) 75 3.0% 856 8.8%
Returning 1,955 78.5% 32,908 5.9%
Total 2,491 100.0% 41,781 6.0%
Withdrawn Students
Percent of
Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Enrollment
Status
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Enrollment Status
First-Time College 19 2.9% 255 7.5%
Transfer 70 10.6% 685 10.2%
Re-Admit (*) 24 3.6% 291 8.2%
Returning 546 82.9% 4,900 11.1%
Total 659 100.0% 6,131 10.7%

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CUMULATIVE GPA
Results in Table 24 point out that there is little difference in cumulative GPA for students who withdraw
from social science courses,regardless of instruction type. Because the average GPA for students who
withdraw is approximately 2.0, it does not appear that Cumulative GPA is a major factor in determining if
a student will withdraw.
Table 24: Average Cumulative GPA by Instructive Type of Students Who Withdrew from Social Science
Courses
Instruction Type Average Cumulative GPA
Overall 1.98
Face-to-Face 1.94
Online 2.06
CREDITS COMPLETED
Results in Table 25 show that there is little difference in average credits earned for students who
withdrew from social science courses,regardless of instruction type. Because students from each
instruction type on average earn at least 35 credits when they withdraw from a social science course, we
can assume that the average student had completed at least one semester towards his or her educational
goal before deciding to withdraw from a social science course.
Table 25: Average Credits Completed by Instructive Type of Students Who Withdrew from Social
Science Courses
Instruction Type Average Credits Earned
Overall 36.6
Face-to-Face 35.8
Online 39.0
DEVELOPMENTAL STATUS AT ADMISSION
Investigating social science course withdraw rates by developmental status at admission (Table 26)
indicates that most of the students who withdrew from social science courses either did not have to take
any developmental courses (35.3%) or needed at least one math course (32.8%). Comparing withdrawn
students to all enrolled students with each developmental status revealed that both students who need
English-Writing as well as Math, English-Reading and Writing have the largest percentage of students
who withdrew (7.5%). These findings were similar with face-to-face (7.2%).Table 28 shows that online
students who need English-Writing had the highest percentage of withdrawn students (13.0%). However,
many of the online developmental subgroups are small and the findings need to be examined more
closely.

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Table 26: Withdraw Rates by Developmental Status at Admission (Overall)
Developmental Status Frequency
of
Withdrawn
Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Developmental
Status
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Developmental
Status
College Level 1,170 35.3% 19,097 6.1%
Math Only 1,086 32.8% 15,744 6.9%
English-Reading 48 1.4% 864 5.6%
English-Writing 48 1.4% 644 7.5%
Math, English-Reading 262 7.9% 3,874 6.8%
Math, English-Writing 159 4.8% 2,311 6.9%
Math, English-Reading &Writing 539 16.3% 7,146 7.5%
Total 3,312 99.9% 49,680 6.7%
Table 27: Withdraw Rates by Developmental Status at Admission (Face-to-Face)
of
Withdrawn
Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Developmental
Status
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Developmental
Status
College Level 824 33.1% 15,430 5.3%
Math Only 797 32.0% 13,221 6.0%
Math, English-Reading 202 8.1% 3,376 6.0%
Math, English-Writing 133 5.3% 2,047 6.5%
Math, English-Reading &Writing 458 18.4% 6,388 7.2%
Total 2,491 100.0% 41,781 6.0%

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Table 28: Withdraw Rates by Developmental Status at Admission (Online)
of
Withdrawn
Students
Percent of Total
Withdrawn
Enrolled by
Developmental
Status
Percent of
Students Who
Withdrew From
Course by
Developmental
Status
College Level 282 42.8% 2,841 9.9%
Math Only 230 34.9% 2,010 11.4%
Math, English-Reading 46 7.0% 373 12.3%
Math, English-Writing 21 3.2% 200 10.5%
Math, English-Reading &Writing 63 9.6% 568 11.1%
Total 659 100.1% 6,131 10.7%
Conclusion/Summary:
Overall, the findings of this analysis indicate the following:
1. The withdraw rate of online students was almost double of those who enrolled in courses on
campus instead.
2. Most of the students withdrew from social science courses in either Fall 2011 or Spring 2012.
3. Despite lower enrollment, fewer students withdraw from social science courses today than in
2011-2012.
4. Most of the students withdrew during the 10th
week of the semester,right before the deadline to
withdraw without penalty.
5. PSYC-101, the most enrolled social science course between Fall 2011 and Spring 2016, has the
largest number of students who withdrew.
Next Steps:
Given the above data and findings, here are the proposed next steps that will help understand what factors
impact withdraw rates for students in social science courses:
1. Regression Model: Analysis of withdraw rates by personal characteristics suggests differences by
age, race and ethnicity, enrollment status,and developmental status at admission. a regression
model can help to determine which would be significant for predicting which students will
withdraw
2. Testing the Model: Use the Fall 2016 social science data to test the model for significant factors
and determine how successfulit is. Using data from other divisions may also test the model for
generalizing results.
3. Repeat analysis looking at students who fail the course. Many more students fail the course
instead of withdraw, and it would be interesting to see if a similar model is applicable to
understand the students’ behaviors.

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