Information AnalysisWeek 7Jocelyn TurgeonADM3316 Fall

Information Analysis
Week 7
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
Welcome back!
Still not too late for CI certificate
Team project consultations
Individual project topics
Questions
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Analytics and technology
Representations
Process
Process
HSI Exercise

Data Storage
Counter-information
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
So far we have seen
KITs, KIQs, Indicators

Options
Support to strategic decision-making
Plan and execute your search
The environment
The people
Data collection
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis

Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Référence: Rowley, Jennifer (2007). "The wisdom hierarchy:
representations of the DIKW hierarchy". Journal of Information
and Communication Science. 33 (2): 163–180
For the Web and for the info on people
6
Analysis is achieved through
Deduction – by reasoning and inference from the general to the
particular
Induction – by inference of a general conclusion from the
particular
Abduction – inference of a probable conclusion from what is
known
Which one do we use the most in CI?

Survey says…
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations

Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Various possibilities
We remember the example of Alibaba
Machine learning logarithm
Automatic generation of recommendations
Decision support
If your data harvest has been set up to integrate automated
processing, a large part of the work is done for you
But for CI and to support strategic decisions, your role it will
remain at the aggregation stage of this information to support
the company's decision (for now….)
Foreword
Approach

Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Big Data
The possibilities are enormous
Our digital signature is huge
Phone, GPS, appointments, banks, restaurants...
But complexity requires decision support in the form of
Machine learning
Simulation using "virtual agents".
Creation and validation of "models
BI processes are mostly internal
We have mentioned the importance of using them
Value of internal information
Additional information
Integration of internal processes
e.g. SAP, Peoplesoft
This data, information, intelligence can play an important role

in the analysis process and feed answers to KIQs or support
intuition.
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise

Data Storage
Counter-information
Trends based on complexity and fractals analysis
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Recommendation
Competitive advantage
KIT
KIQ
KIQ
KIQ
KII
KII
KII
KII
Knowledge Wisdom
This is an iterative process
Analysis may be the most difficult step
To increase the value of our information chain
Signals – Data – Information – Knowledge

We need to identify or deduce trends, links to meet our initial
objective.
We often have to fill empty spaces
In short, we must take signals and data that do not always
appear to be related and infer the knowledge or information
from them that allows us to recommend action.
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
The experienced analyst
Linking data and signals
Don't just think linearly (fox...)
Creative and innovative
Open minded

Humble
Extrapolates and expresses their reasoning
Good analysts are difficult to train, e.g. CIA
But they are often right... e.g. IBM and microcomputers
Ref: Competitive Intelligence L. Kahaner
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Ten commandments of superforecasters

Triage – biggest bang for your effort
Break up the problem
Balance inside and outside views
Balance between under and over reaction to evidence
Look for clashing causal forces
Strive to distinguism as many degrees of doubts as the problem
permits
Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction. P.E.
Tetlock, D. Gardner. 2015
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Ten commandments of superforecasters
(continued)
7. Balance confidence and prudence
8. Look for errors in your judgment
9. Bring out the best in others and allow them to do so
10. Balance errors
11. Don’t treat commandments as commandments…
Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction. P.E.
Tetlock, D. Gardner. 2015
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Ref Twitter @CIA
What time is it based on the picture below?
And I would add
Be aware of yourself
Keep an open mind to better see and discover the links between
signals and data; be a fox.
Keep your thinking biases in mind; allow your inner turtle to do
its job.
Be receptive to weak signals and their role as indicators.
Surround yourself with people who see reality differently.
Use internal or external experts
Foreword
Approach

Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Consider the context
SWOT or PESTEL are excellent analysis framework
Consider the following perspectives in a business analysis
Directions announced (speeches, publications, mission...)
Expert forecasts of the sector
Past actions as indicators of preferential modes
Changes in the competitive environment
Do not forget to contextualize these perspectives for the
company in question according to its strengths and weaknesses.
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Talking about biases…
Coca Cola Mission
Coca Cola’s mission statement is to refresh the world in mind,
body, and spirit, to inspire moments of optimism and happiness
through our brands and actions, and to create value and make a
difference.
Bombardier
Our mission is to be the world's leading manufacturer of planes
and trains. We are committed to providing superior value and
service to our customers and sustained profitability to our
shareholders by investing in our people and products.
What can we infer from these?
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage

Counter-information
Decision makers – an essential perspective
A predictive approach
Their past behaviour
Faced with success
Facing failure
Their main personality traits
Their environment at the moment
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
27
Profiling individuals
Ref: Marta S. Weber Profiling for Leadership Analysis

The individual
Historical biography related to KITs
A personality assessment
The individual in his or her organizational environment
The organizational environment
Culture, mission, raison d'être
Also based on KITs
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Considerations
Philosophy - management, life, relationships, ...
Strategy - preferences, comfort zone, ...
Gregarious or not? - team approach, ...
Risk - gambling, careful, ...
Innovative - conventional, avant-garde, ...
Competitive - default approach, sporty, ...
Decision making - approach, listening or not, ...
Motivations - goals, stated or unstated objectives, ...
Environment - dynamics in place, role, ...
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Profiling fundamentals
The best predictor of the future is the past.
Similarity of the situation
Repetition of successes, avoidance of failures
Pavlov and Maslow
Tendency to avoid change
Habits and ways of doing things
Most of the time people do what they say they will do.
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Some additional tools
Myers Briggs Type Indicator
energy - Introversion vs. extroversion
Information processing - Sensor vs. intuition
Decision - Analytical vs. Sentiment
Self-management - Judgment vs. perception
DiSC
Dominance, influence, steadiness and conscientiousness
TMI - Team Management Index
And many more…
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Some Analysis Techniques
Some of these techniques are dependent on and can enhance
other analytical elements.
Wargaming
Delphi
Storyboarding

And obviously
Machine learning and AI
Now let’s give all this a try!
Home Security Inc.
Break out in teams and answer the questions for HSI Part 1
Teams will be picked randomly to provide their answers
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information

Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Considerations
Data volume
Security
Business Intelligence
Support an iterative process?
Data vs Knowledge

…
Foreword
Approach
Data analysis
Representations
Process
HSI Exercise
Data Storage
Counter-information
Competitive Intelligence
Disinformation
Positioning
"Seeding"
Test balloons
Omissions...

Questions?
Text or email me
[email protected]
Look for Q&A in Brightspace
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2020
Pg. 01
Question Three
Assignment 2
Deadline: Tuesday 15/11/2021 @ 23:59
[Total Mark for this Assignment is 5]
Fundamentals of Databases
IT403
College of Computing and Informatics

Question One
1.5 Marks
Learning Outcome(s):
LO3
Create Entity-Relationship model, Relational model, and write
SQL queries
From the Salesman and Customer tables below, write SQL
statements to do the following:
a) List the salesman id, rating and names of those salesmen who
get rating from 3 to 5, sorted DESCENDING by rating.
b) List all the customers’ information whose name starts with
‘F’ and the fourth character is ‘I’, rests may be any character.
c) List the name and country of those customers and salesmen
who belongs to the same country.
Salesman table:
Customer table:
Question Two
1.5 Marks
LO3
SQL queries.

Write SQL statements to do the following on the database
schema shown below.
a) Insert a new record in the course table with the following
data values
course number = 'COSC4390'
course name = 'Knowledge Engineering'
course credit hours= ‘3’
department = ’COSC'>.
b) Change the class of student 'Ahmed' to 4.
c) Delete the record of the student whose name is 'Ahmed' and
his number is 22.Question Three
2 Marks
LO3
SQL queries.
Map the database schema shown in the following figure into a
relational database schema.

Reporting your findings
Week 9
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
Welcome back!
Starting to push it for CI certificate
Questions
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Organisational structure and decision making
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value

Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
Questions to be answered
In groups identify the information you would need to gather to
determine:
a) Whether TVI is planning to enter HSI’s market?
b) If yes, when TVI would be entering the market? (Short,
medium or longer term)
c) If yes, do you perceive this as a significant threat to HSI?
d) Recommendations to Sara on how to deal with it.
Let’s look into it and see what your teams found out.
Case Study
HSI Part 1

HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
4
Some important findings
HSI has reason to be concerned
Not enough information to conclude with confidence
Things to keep an eye on - HSI's Competitive Intelligence
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery

Added value
5
With additional information
To what extent have the resource gaps been filled?
Do a content assessment comparing both press releases (Feb 7
and Feb 23).
Note all the differences you see between the two releases, when
you identify a difference determine whether it signals
something important for HSI and what you think it means and
finally how you would validate it.
As an example of this, the Feb 7 release is signed by Don Segal
and the Feb 23 is signed by Peter Hatch. A CI person would ask
why was one signed by one executive and one by another?
Is this normal for this company?
If not normal what could it represent and how would I validate
this.
Let’s look into it and see what your teams found out.
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2

Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
6
Organizational structure reflects various company
characteristics
Authority – how it is exerted
Cohesion – potential silos
Leadership – and responsibilities
Management by Project – Cross authorities
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery

Added value
7
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
Pyramidal – formal, functional, matrixed…
8
Case Study
HSI Part 1

HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
Network – distributed, perhaps informal
9
The organizational context is important
Factors that influence CI
Organizational structure
Intentions towards CI
Resources made available for CI
Value attributed to CI
Example
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2

Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
10
Strategic management is not a box
of tricks or a bundle of techniques.
It is analytical thinking and commitment
of resources to action.
But quantification alone is not planning.
Some of the most important issues in
strategic management cannot be
quantified at all.
Peter Drucker
Truly successful decision-making relies
on a balance between
deliberate and instinctive thinking.

Malcolm Gladwell
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
13
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target

Briefing
Delivery
Added value
14
Know your interlocutor and their expectations
Remember what your mandate was?
Deliverable format
Delivery method
Message (info, recommendation, context...)
Audience
What is their style?
What is their profile?
Always remember that time is precious.
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target

Briefing
Delivery
Added value
15
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
Common CI output
Competitor profiles
Competitive landscape report
Executive slide deck
Battlecards
Sales slide deck
Product sheet
E.g. Telfer CI presentation

Battlecards
https://www.roadmap.com/s-competitive-battle-card
16
Develop various information tools to match the target
stakeholders
Newsletters
Lunch and learn presentations
Particularized presentations
Pod casts
…
Ideally you also match the learning styles of your targets
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value

17
Most common according to the latest SCIP census
Competitor Profiles
Competitive Environment Report
Presentation for the Executive
"Battlecards
Presentation for the marketing department
Information on specific products
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination

Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
https://venngage.com/blog/data-visualization/
Data visualisation can assist you
convey your message
Some examples
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/00011931251
0281997/dex991.htm
https://velocitypartners.com/blog/infographics-14-ways-to-
present-information-visually/
19
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination

Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
Speak like a leader
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGBamfWasNQ&ab_channe
l=TEDxTalks
20
Be persuasive
Get their attention
Get their interest
Reduce objections
Stimulate action
Answer the question
You did your initial work well...
e.g. HSI case
Use positive language, extrapolate from your observations
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination

Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
1. Getting attention
Offer something valuable, promise a result to the reader, ask a
challenging question, describe the product's features, present a
testimonial, make a compelling statement or show an action to
the reader. Other methods of getting attention are a solution to
the problem, an anecdote, a sentence using the recipient's name,
and a relevant current event.
2. Generate interest
Describe the product in terms of what it brings to the reader:
saving or earning money, reducing effort, improving health,
giving pleasure, raising status. Combine facts with feelings and
needs.
3. Reduce objections
Counter hesitations with testimonials, money back guarantees,
attractive insurance, free trials or samples. Build credibility
through performance test results, surveys or awards. If the price
is not a sales incentive, describe it in fractions (only 99 cents
per issue), present it as a savings or show how it compares
favorably to the competition.
4. Motivate action
Conclude by repeating the central point of sale and clear
instructions for a simple action to be taken. Ask the reader to
take immediate action by offering a gift, incentive, limited
offer, deadline or satisfaction guarantee. Write the strongest
incentive in postscript

21
Support strategic decision-making
Reducing uncertainty
Detecting weak signals
Legitimizing decisions made or about to be made
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
22
Decisions are affected by
Information
Experience and intuition
Social context

Time scale – short, medium or long term
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value
23
Case Study
HSI Part 1
HSI Part 2
Dissemination
Target
Briefing
Delivery
Added value

24
Questions?
Text or email me
[email protected]
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
CI Culture
Week 10
Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021
Welcome back!
Wrapping up VOBA courses
Questions

CI Culture
Competitive Intelligence as a business function
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
Table D and E example
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
CI within an existing company
Setting it up

Strengthening it
Growing it
Unit within the organisation
Collection
Dissemination
Influence
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise

CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
Alan Baren, SCIP, in The Biggest Challenge for Competitive
Intelligence, 2015.
Focus the efforts of your monitoring "team".
Rationale - tactical or strategic
Key stakeholders - who are your customers?
Main competitors vs. environment
Your skills at first glance
Internal information - networking within the company
Prioritization of collection and analysis
Above all, don't forget that is not only about competitors...
CI Culture

Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
Starting a Competitive Intelligence Function – A SCIP best
practices guide
A problem of value creation according to T.W. Powell
A visit to the doctor - pills...
A call to your investment broker...
CI Business case
The costs of the watch service
The advantages - even qualitative
An estimate of the cost of benefits
Spread over time
Present value of the required investment
How it compares - benchmarking
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise

According to T.W. Powell, in Intelligence: Developing the
Business Case, the monitoring unit should
Develop and manage information
Predict the future environment
Assist in strategic and tactical decision making
There is always information, but sometimes it is
Scattered
Difficult to collect
Consists of seemingly worthless data
Unstructured
"The customer doesn't really want a drill, he wants a hole..."
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
Acording to T. Powell, seven specific steps are required to
develop a business case using a project financing model:

1. List the incremental costs.
2. List the incremental benefits, in a qualitative
sense.
3. Measure or estimate the value of the
incremental costs.
4. Measure or estimate the economic value of the
incremental benefits.
5. Plot these incremental costs and benefits and
costs over the life of the project.
6. Calculate the value of the initiative using a
discounted cash flow (DCF) model.
7. Benchmark the DCF value against some
corporate hurdle rate that new projects must
meet to obtain funding.
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
You are likely not starting from scratch
* Their sales and market research people talk to current and
prospective customers.
• Their support people talk to customers.
• Their investor relations people talk to securities analysts and
institutional investors.
• Their business development people talk to other industry

players.
• Their executives talk to other industry executives at business
and social events.
• Their scientists talk to other scientists at conferences.
• Just about everyone reads about their segment of the industry.
• Just about everyone conducts internet searches on topics of
interest to them.
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
Key fonctions – Steps of CI process

Ref.: T.W. Powell, in Intelligence: Developing the Business
Case, SCIP
Best Practice Guide
According to T.W. Powell
CI is part of the overhead costs.
It must be rigorously evaluated with data.
Benefits are not always easy to measure
You have to perceive and see the system as a whole.
The function is often perceived as disposable
CI skills take some time to establish
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
According to T.W. Powell
CI is an investment

the numbers must speak for themselves
Work hard at it
Don't reinvent the wheel ...
Always keep in mind the advantages of CI before
Think return on investment
Don't promise the moon ...
You have to gain confidence one small victory at a time!
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
There are many of them and they vary depending on the stage of
the process.
Networking capacity
Ability for social interaction
Analytical capacity
Computer skills
Ability to establish connections, links
And of course, willpower and determination!
In short, it is once again in your best interest to target your
strengths and to surround yourself with the right people.

CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
KIT - Descriptions of the key players in the market
competitors, customers, suppliers, regulators and potential
partners
The individual
Historical biography related to RCW
A personality assessment
The individual in his or her organizational environment
The organizational environment
Culture, mission, raison d'être
Also based on KIT
Ref: J. Herring (1999). Key Intelligence Topics: A process to
identify and define intelligence needs. Competitive Intelligence
Review, Vol 10(2), 4-14 (1999).
Ref: Marta S. Weber Profiling for Leadership Analysis, SCIP.
CI Culture
Challenges

Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Process
1. Provide profiles of our main competitors, including their
strategic plans, competitive strategies, financial and market
performance, organization and key personnel, R&D, operations,
sales and marketing, etc.
2. Provide in-depth assessments of major competitors including:
Their desire to compete with us and our main customers
Strategic plans and goals, including international goals Key
strategies: financial, technological, manufacturing, business
development, distribution, sales and marketing Current
operational and competitive capacities
3. Identify new and emerging competitors, especially those from
entirely different industries and businesses.
4. Describe and assess our current and future competitive
environment, including: customers and competitors; markets
and suppliers; production and product technologies; political
and environmental; and the structure of the industry, including
changes and tendencies.
5. New customers, their future needs and interests: who are they
and how are our competitors trying to satisfy them?
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary

CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
6. Opinions, attitudes and perceptions of industry and customers
regarding the "value" of our
products, services, etc. brand
7. Identify and assess new industry / market players including:
suppliers, major distributors, customers and / or competitors
who are considering entering our business.
8. Developers of new technologies / products: what are their
plans and strategies to compete with our industry?
9. Need for significant improvement in market share and growth
data, including our competitors.
10. Management and operations need better information about
regulatory and environmental activities for planning and
decision making.
11. The financial / financial community: what are their views
and perceptions of our
business and industry?
12. What is the interest and purpose of various suppliers and
industry watchers in
collect information about our company?
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets

Profiling Exercise
IndicatorTarget(s)MeaningEducation
- Field of study
- UniversityProfessional history
- employmentChallenges
- behaviour
- decisionsPersonality
- traitsEnvironment
- familyOther aspects…
CI Culture
Challenges
Business case
Summary
CI Skillsets
Profiling Exercise
19
Questions?
Text or email me
[email protected]

Jocelyn Turgeon
ADM3316 Fall 2021

Information AnalysisWeek 7Jocelyn TurgeonADM3316 Fall

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