Spire was honored to be invited as a guest speaker at the 4th South East Asia Auto Summit Indonesia 2015 held in Jakarta.

1. 1
Indonesia Automotive Insight:
The New Era of LCGC/LEC
Prepared for :
4th South East Asia Auto Summit, Indonesia 2015
8th & 9th April 2015, Jakarta

2. 2
Topic
1 A Year Before …
2 Indonesia Macro Economic Outlook 2015
3
Low Cost Green Car/Low Emission Car –A
Toddler or Sumatran Tiger?
4
Low Cost Green Car/Low Emission Car –
Market Opportunity & Challenge

3. 3
A Year Before…

4. 4
A Year Before…
Indonesia Automobile Sales in 2014
541
602
781
880 879 895
975
223
292
335
350 329 334
325
765
894
1,116
1,230 1,208 1,229
1,300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
Domestic Sales of Automobile
By Category 2010 - 2015
Passanger Vehicle (PV) Commercial Vehicle (CV) TOTAL SALES VOLUME
11.2%
30.9%
29.7%
14.8%
4.3%
12.7%
0.06%
6.1%
16.9%
24.8%
10.2%
1,8%
GAIKINDO
Prediction
SPIRE
Prediction
Source: GAIKINDO, Spire Data & Analysis
ESTIMATED SALES GROWTH
Passenger Vehicle (PV)

5. 5
A Year Before…
5 Key Factors to the Slowdown of Automobile Demand
Slowdown of
Automobile
Demand in
2014
Slow
Annual
Growth
Rate
Decreasing
of Rupiah
Political
Uncertainty
and post-
election
dispute
Subsidized
Fuel
Restriction
Increase in
Tariffs and
Rates
• Speculations
from the Fed
rates.
• Improvement
of US economy.
• Side effects
from the trade
deficit.
• Distorted business
confidence and consumer
sentiment.
• Slower Annual Growth Rate at 5.1%.
• Export Reduction, mainly caused by the
minerals and coal regulation.
• Decrease in commodity price, namely
crude oil.
• Aug2014: Restriction of
subsidized Diesel
(solar) in the gas
stations.
• Nov2014: Increasing of
subsidized fuels
(premium and solar).
• BI raised the BI rate to 7.75%.
• Inflation hit 8.36%.
• Electricity, wages, and
luxury taxes rate were
increased.
Source: Spire Data & Analysis

6. 6
Indonesia Macro Economic Outlook
2015

7. 7
INDONESIA
MACRO
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK IN
2015
5.5% growth rate (est.)
this year with 5-7% y-o-y
growth over the next 5
years
Mainly driven by growth
of domestic consumption
and productivity rather
than export and
manufacturing
60 mn productive-age
population
15 mn household have >
USD10k annual disposable
income, with 3-4% growth
per annum
IDR 290T for infrastructure
development
Focusing on logistics,
transportation, energy &
electricity, public services,
and other industry-supporting
infrastructure
Investment target is IDR
520T, facilitated by single
window investment service
Targeting >100 investment
by 2020, 35% for outer Java
Source: BPS, Central Bank of Indonesia, Spire Data & Analysis

8. 8
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto
2015

9. 9
4 WHEELER PRODUCTION &
SALES IN INDONESIA
2005 – 2014:11.1% CAGR of sales
and 11.5% CAGR of production
1.2 mn vehicle sold in 2013,
73% are passenger
cars
Positive growth is expected until 2016
K
E
Y
D
R
I
V
E
R
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto 2015
Overall Indonesia Automotive Growth & Trend 2015
100 MILLION
middle class
family and rising
HIGH CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE
(118.2) as per
March 2014
LOW INTEREST rate
for car credit (5-
6%)
GDP is expected
TO RISE within 5-7%
between 2014-
2020
Source: Gaikindo, KPMG, Indonesia Auto Market, Business Monitor International, Central Bank of Indonesia
Low-end MPV, City Car & LCGC
are expected to rule the road
MPV:
WIDELY AVAILABLE
offered by almost all
manufacture
LARGE CAPACITY
sufficient for a family
FUEL SAVER when
compared with the large
capacity
City Car:
LOW MAINTENANCE FEE
for city car, hatchback or
LCGC
STYLISH & TRENDY style,
suitable for younger
generation
RELIABLE for city usage

10. 10
18 Months of Low Cost Green
Car/Low Emission Car – A Toddler or
Sumatran Tiger?

11. 11
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto 2015
Market Entry & Growth Strategy
COMPETITOR
ANALYSIS
BUSINESS
PARTNER
SELECTION
CORPORATE
SOCIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
CONSULTING
CHANNEL
HEALTH
MANAGEMENT
KNOWLEDGE
PROCESS
OUTSOURCING
GEO-
MARKETING
DECISION
ANALYTICS
CUSTOMER
VALUE
CO-CREATION
CONSULTING
MARKET
ENVIRONMENT
RESEARCH
MARKET
SIZING AND
FEASIBILITY
VALUE CHAIN
ANALYSIS
PRICE
RESEARCH
SUPPLY CHAIN
MANAGEMENT
CONSULTING
CUSTOMER
DECISION
DYNAMICS
ANALYSIS
COUNTRY
RESEARCH
CONSUMER
RESEARCH
CROSS-
BORDER
CONSULTING
THOUGHT
LEADERSHIP
CONSULTING
ANTI-
COUNTERFEIT
CONSULTING
HOLISTIC MARKET
ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH

12. 12
Toyota Agya
(39%)
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto 2015
The LCGC Program in Indonesia – Domestic Sales and Brand
Domination
Source: Gaikindo, Spire Data & Analysis
Daihatsu
Ayla
(26%) Honda Brio
Satya
(13%)
Datsun Go
Family
(12%)
LCGC
Market 2014
by Brand Suzuki
Wagon R
(10%)
51
172
2013 2014
LCGC Domestic Sales
2013 - 2014
5 players are playing in this
market: Toyota, Daihatsu,
Honda, Suzuki & Nissan-
Datsun.

13. 13
51
172 181 200
2013 2014 2015F 2015F
LCGC Domestic Sales
2013 - 2015
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto 2015
The LCGC Program in Indonesia – Prediction on Domestic Sales
Sales are tripled in 2014. How is the situation for 2015?
In 18 months since the launch, domestic sales of LCGC has reached 223,000
units.
LCGC are popular in Indonesia since these cars are fuel efficient and relatively
cheap—starting from less than IDR 100 mn price tag.
The LCGC segment will gain huge opportunity in 2015. Spire predicts the sales to
hit 200,000.
Source: Gaikindo, Spire Data & Analysis
GAIKINDO Predicts
5% Sales Increase
Spire Predicts
16% Sales Increase

14. 14
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto 2015
The LCGC Program in Indonesia – Our Previous Prediction…
Presented by Spire on
2nd Annual SEA Automotive Summit 2013, 26
June 2013

15. 15
Low Cost Green Car/Low Emission
Car – Market Opportunity &
Challenge

16. 16
A New Beginning of Indonesia Auto 2015
The LCGC Program in Indonesia – Market Opportunity & Challenge
Source: Gaikindo, BPS, Central Bank of Indonesia, Spire Data & Analysis
Indonesian people are
price-sensitive. LCGC has
80 – 120 mn price tag,
affordable to middle
class.
Current government
applied fixed subsidy for
fuel, making fuel-saving
the best choice for car
owners.
LCGC are luxury tax-free,
enabling the
manufacturer to have
lower production cost.
Manufacturers need to
make a low cost
product without
sacrificing the quality.
Lower price can easily
be equated with low
quality.
Lower price may
resulted in less profit
for the manufacturers.
With 5 players currently
on the market, the
players need to
compete each-other.
Brands need to be
aware of cannibalism.
e.g. for Toyota, Agya
may eat Avanza’s
market share.
Low cost products may
lend appearance of
low brand image.

17. 17
Tel: (62) 5794 5800
Fax: (62) 5794 5808
Wisma 46, Kota BNI 25th Floor,
Unit #07-09
Jakarta 10220
id.info@spireresearch.com
www.spireresearch.com