The document discusses identifying emerging risks in the food chain before they affect human health. It describes both reactive systems like rapid alert systems for food safety issues and proactive systems like horizon scanning. Key conclusions are that science, human behavior, nature, and legislation most frequently influence emerging risks and that detection requires monitoring multiple sources and using text mining, information extraction, and ontologies.

1. Identifying Emerging Risks
in the Food Chain
iFood 2013
9 October 2013, Don Willems, Jan Top
don.willems@wur.nl

2. Objective
To become aware of
potential risks
before they
affect human health
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

3. Identifying Food Safety Risks
Reactive Systems
RASFF - Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed
Exchange of information between nations (e.g. GIEWS))
Searching for/Monitoring of information (e.g. EMM)
Proactive Systems
Horizon Scanning, foresight, risk profiling, ...
Holistic systems
ERDSS (Emerging Risk Detection Support System)
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

4. Holistic Systems
Technology
Human
Behaviour
Science
Economy
Politics
Nature
Environment
Legislation
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

5. Holistic Systems
•
•
Conclusions from case studies
•
In every case study influential sectors were identified.
Most frequent influential sectors were:
•
•
•
•
Science and technology
Human behaviour
Nature and environment
Legislation & economy
Many indicators (and related data sources) were
identified, generic and case-specific
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6. Holistic Systems
•
Detection needs:
•
Monitoring of news/science/... / other sources Information Retrieval
•
•
Text Mining - Information Extraction
•
•
Inferring possible risks - Reasoning
•
Data extraction (databases/spreadsheets) Information Extraction
Reporting
Evaluation (by experts)
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7. Technology - Ontologies
•
Represents knowledge as
•
•
•
Graph
Concepts - nodes
•
•
Classes
Instances (of classes)
Relations - edges
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

8. Technology - Ontologies
Enterobacteriaceae
subclass of
Escherichia
subclass of
E_Coli
subclass of
Klebsiella
subclass of
Klebsiella_pneumoniae
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

9. Technology - Ontologies
E_Coli
is a
is a
The_E_Coli_bacterium_
in_cow_XXX
The_E_Coli_bacterium_in_
the_Lettuce_in_my_taco
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10. Technology - Ontologies
"E. coli"
"Pałeczka okr
label
label
nicy"
label
E_Coli
label
"Escherichia coli"
"大腸桿菌"
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

11. Technology - Ontologies
Warm_blooded_
organisms
E_Coli
depiction of
may be found in
subclass of
Pathogenic_E_Coli
may be caused by
may be caused by
Gastrointestinal_infection
Neonatal_meningitis
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12. Technology - Ontologies
Enterobacteriaceae
Escherichia
Warm_blooded_
organisms
E_Coli
Klebsiella
Klebsiella_pneum
Pathogenic_E_Coli
Neonatal_meningitis
Gastrointestinal_infection
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

13. Technology - Information Retrieval
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
subclass of
Apple
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED
screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be
bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens
in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the
forthcoming gadget, Korean publication
ChosunIlbo reported.
Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a
prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and
it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the
flexible OLED screens from Korean firms
including LG and Samsung.
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

14. Technology - Information Retrieval
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
cultivar of
Elstar
subclass of
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
✓
Apple
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED
screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be
bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens
in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the
forthcoming gadget, Korean publication
ChosunIlbo reported.
Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a
prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and
it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the
flexible OLED screens from Korean firms
including LG and Samsung.
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

15. Technology - Information Retrieval
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
cultivar of
Elstar
subclass of
Apple
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
✓
⨯
Apple is looking to use a plastic flexible OLED
screen for its upcoming iWatch, which can be
bent. The iPhone maker is testing OLED screens
in 1.3in, 1.4in and 1.5in screen sizes for the
forthcoming gadget, Korean publication
ChosunIlbo reported.
Reports also reveal that Apple has developed a
prototype of the iWatch with a 1.5in screen and
it is likely that the iPhone maker may source the
flexible OLED screens from Korean firms
including LG and Samsung.
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

16. Technology - Information Extraction
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
cultivar of
Elstar
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
subclass of
Apple
cultivar of
Golden Delicious
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

17. Technology - Information Extraction
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
cultivar of
subclass of
Apple
Granny_Smith
cultivar of
Granny_Smith
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
Golden_Delicious
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
Cox_Orange
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
cultivar of
Apple
EXTRACTED FACTS
Elstar
Golden_Delicious
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

18. Technology - Information Extraction
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
subclass of
cultivar of
Apple
cultivar of
Elstar
Granny_Smith
Granny_Smith
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
Golden_Delicious
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
Cox_Orange
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
cultivar of
Golden_Delicious
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

19. Technology - Information Extraction
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
local cultivars like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
Nybom claims that the allergen-free apple,
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
people with allergies.
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
subclass of
Granny_Smith
cultivar of
Apple
cultivar of
has allergenicity
High_Allergenicity
cultivar of
has allergenicity
Elstar
subclass of
Allergenicity
Golden_Delicious
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

20. Technology - Information Extraction
Fruit
subclass of
Pomme_Fruit
subclass of
cultivar of
Cox_Orange
cultivar of
Apple
cultivar of
cultivar of
Previous studies have shown that commonly
used apple cultivars like Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious and Cox Orange are highly allergenic,
containing high levels of Mal d 1, whereas some
Granny_Smith like Gloster, Jamba and Belle de
local cultivars
Boskoop appear to be low-allergenic. Professor
has allergenicity that the allergen-free apple,
Nybom claims
which so far has no name, tastes better and is
High_Allergenicity
more beautiful than the apple Gloster, which so
far is the only apple variety that can be offered to
subclass of
people with allergies.
has allergenicity
cultivar of
Gloster
Elstar
Allergenicity
subclass of
has allergenicity
Jamba
has allergenicity
Low_Allergenicity
Belle_de_Boskoop
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

21. Technology - Reasoning
•
Automatic reasoning is used to infer new
facts
•
Rule-based reasoning
•
•
IF condition_A OR/AND condition_B
THEN consequent ELSE alternative
May lead to Chain reaction of rules firing
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

22. Technology - Reasoning
•
Example
•
•
•
Source: FAO/Eurostat
•
Result: Increased disease pressure in cattle in country
X
•
IF increased_disease_pressure_in_country_X THEN
increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X
•
Result: Increased use of antibiotics in country X
Indicator: Increased production of meat in country X
IF increased_production_of_meat_in_country_X
THEN increased_disease_pressure_in_countryX
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

23. Technology - Reasoning
•
•
Example
•
•
Result: Increased use of antibiotics in country X
IF increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X
THEN
food_safety_risk_for_meat_from_country_X
Result: Food safety risk for meat from
country X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

24. Technology - Reasoning
country_X
cattle
from
IF
meat
location
of
increase
trend
production
country_X
location
THEN
increase
location
trend
cattle
of
disease_pressure
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

25. Technology - Reasoning
country_X
cattle
from
IF
increase
meat
location
of
trend
THEN
production
country_X
increase
location
trend
cattle
of
disease_pressure
location
cattle
country_X
meat
production
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

26. Technology - Reasoning
country_X
cattle
from
IF
increase
meat
location
of
trend
THEN
production
country_X
increase
location
trend
cattle
of
disease_pressure
location
cattle
country_X
increase
meat
production
NEW FACT : Increase of meat
production in country X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

27. Technology - Reasoning
country_X
cattle
from
IF
increase
meat
location
of
trend
THEN
production
country_X
location
cattle
country_X
increase
=
increase
location
trend
cattle
of
disease_pressure
meat
production
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

28. Technology - Reasoning
cattle
country_X
from
IF
increase
meat
location
of
trend
country_X
THEN
production
country_X
trend
cattle
of
disease_pressure
location
cattle
increase
location
disease_pressure
increase
country_X
increase
meat
production
antibiotics
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

29. Technology - Reasoning
disease_pressure
IF
country_X
trend
of
increase
cattle
location
meat
country_X
THEN
cattle
increase
in
from
cattle
from
meat
trend
antibiotics
disease_pressure
increase
country_X
increase
meat antibiotics
production
increase
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

30. Technology - Reasoning
country_X
IF
cattle
meat
increase
in
from
country_X
trend
THEN
antibiotics
meat
from
in
trend
for
food_safety_risk
cattle
increase
antibiotics
disease_pressure
increase
country_X
meat antibiotics
increase
production
increase
food_safety_risk
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

31. Reporting
•
The food safety expert needs:
•
The data sources that led to the
inference of the food safety risk
•
•
The inferred facts
The rules used in the inference
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32. Reporting
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

33. Reporting
Food safety risk for
meat from country X
IF increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X THEN
food_safety_risk_for_meat_from_country_X
Increased use of
antibiotics in country X
IF increased_disease_pressure_in_country_X THEN
increased_use_of_antibiotics_in_country_X
Increased disease
pressure in cattle in
country X
IF increased_production_of_meat_in_country_X THEN
increased_disease_pressure_in_countryX
Increased production of
meat in country X
COMMIT/ EFoodLab

34. Conclusions
•
For realistic proactive system that can
process all the data available we need:
•
•
•
•
•
information retrieval
information extraction
reasoning
reporting
And lots of expert knowledge that can
be formalised in ontologies.
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35. Thank You!
For more information:
don.willems@wur.nl
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