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Aviation & Aerospace Industry
Manufacturing Summit (AAIMS)
Setting the Stage
Rob Spingarn
Credit Suisse Aerospace & Defense Equity Research
(212) 538-1895, robert.spingarn@credit-suisse.com
October 16, 2013
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS,
ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
Credit Suisse has decided not to enter into business relationships with companies that Credit
Suisse has determined to be involved in the development, manufacture or acquisition of anti-
personnel mines and cluster munitions. For Credit Suisse's position on the issue, please see
https://www.credit-suisse.com/responsibility/doc/policy_summaries_en.pdf.
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 2
My Role as a Sell-side Equity Analyst
Source: Credit Suisse research
• We form the Investment Theses for Stocks/Industries in a Coverage Universe
• Traditional sell-side firms such as Credit Suisse (CS) have analyst teams that
cover ~50+ industries.
• Aerospace & Defense is 1 of 60 sector teams at CS
• We provide investment recommendations through the following mechanisms:
• Buy/Sell/Hold Ratings
• Target Prices to value the equity embedded in a company
• Earnings & Cash Flow forecasts to define a path to the Target Price value
• Our clients are mutual funds, pension funds, and hedge funds that own and trade
stocks. They are collectively known as the “buy side”.
3
Your Role as Aerospace & Defense Suppliers
Defense Primes BizJets
Raytheon Company Bombardier Inc.
Northrop Grumman Corporation Embraer S.A.
Lockheed Martin Corporation Textron Inc.
General Dynamics Corporation Dassault Systemes SA
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Engines
Alliant Techsystems Inc. Rolls-Royce Holdings plc
Defense Tier 1 United Technologies Corporatio
Exelis Inc. MTU Aero Engines AG
L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. Tier 1 Commercial
Cubic Corporation Honeywell International Inc.
Government Services United Technologies Corporatio
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, In
CACI International Inc Triumph Group, Inc.
ManTech International Corporation WOODWARD, INC.
Leidos Holdings Inc. Zodiac Aerospace SA
Engility Holdings, Inc. Safran SA
ICF International, Inc. B/ E Aerospace Inc.
The KEY W Holding Corporation Aftermarket
US Space TransDigm Group Incorporated
Orbital Sciences Corporation HEICO Corporation
Alliant Techsystems Inc. Meggitt PLC
MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates AAR CORP.
GenCorp Inc. Tier 2 Commercial
European Defense Primes Esterline Technologies Corpora
BAE Systems plc Anaren, Inc.
Finmeccanica S.p.A. Aeroflex Holding Corp.
Saab AB Moog Inc.
Thales SA Duocommun Incorporated
European Defense Tier 1 Astronics Corporation
Chemring Group PLC Curtiss-Wright Corporation
Rheinmetall AG Crossover
Ultra Electronics Holdings plc Rockwell Collins, Inc.
Large Commercial Harris Corporation
The Boeing Company FLIR Systems, Inc.
European Aeronautics Defence & Space CAE Inc.
Regional Jets
Bombardier Inc.
Embraer S.A.
Company Company
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
1/5/2009 1/5/2010 1/5/2011 1/5/2012 1/5/2013
Commercial Aerospace Defense Government Services S&P 500
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 4
Aerospace & Defense – Stock Performance
Absolute Performance - Commercial Aerospace vs Defense vs Government Services vs S&P 500
Source: Factset
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Defense Gov't Services Aerospace
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 5
Absolute Performance by Year – Commercial Aerospace vs Defense vs Government Services
Source: Factset
Aerospace & Defense – Stock Performance
Commercial Aerospace
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 7
Commercial Aerospace – Two Sub-Cycles
Original Equipment (OE) is Late-Cycle; Aftermarket is Early-Cycle
Y/Y Change in Aircraft Production Y/Y Change in Traffic Demand
Source: IATA Traffic & Capacity Data, Credit Suisse research
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Commercial Original Equipment
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 9
Commercial OE – What Drives OE
Original Equipment is Primarily Driven by Orders
Source: Credit Suisse Research
Orders
Fleet
Replacement
Fleet
Expansion
High Fuel
Costs
Warranties
Cheap
Financing
Air Traffic
Demand
Cheap
Financing
2475
2074
1743
1380
1123
1270
1614
1750
1792
1513
1614
1357
1151
1109
1095
1810
2451
3428
3714
3375
3443
3771
4424
4857
1034
950
836
667
615
578
754
1009
1313
1445
1626
1575
1523
1467
1505
2180
2531
3420
3715
3488
3554
4436
4683
5202
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Boeing Backlog Airbus Backlog Backlog Coverage
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 10
Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Ascend, Credit Suisse research
Record Backlogs - High oil prices combined with low interest rates,
new aircraft warranties and a weak US$ have driven record demand
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 11
Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations
Source: IATA, Credit Suisse research
High fuel prices may be the single most important driver
% of Operating
Costs
Average Price per
Barrel of Crude
Break-even Price
per Barrel
Total Fuel
Cost (US$B)
2003 14% $28.80 $23.40 $44
2004 17% $38.30 $34.50 $65
2005 22% $54.50 $51.80 $91
2006 26% $65.10 $68.30 $117
2007 28% $73.00 $82.20 $135
2008 33% $99.00 $82.50 $189
2009 26% $62.00 $58.90 $125
2010 26% $79.40 $91.70 $139
2011 28% $111.20 $116.70 $176
2012 32% $111.80 $116.40 $210
2013E 31% $108.00 $115.60 $214
13,557
7,372
1,673
6,082
504
11,734
3,736
934
3,780
553
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Africa Asia &
Middle East
Europe Latin America &
Caribbean
North
America
2002 2012
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 12
Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Ascend, Credit Suisse research
Globalization
People Per Aircraft Seat by region
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 13
Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Credit Suisse research
And technological advances
 More fuel efficient engines (GTF, Leap)
 Lighter weight composites
 Improved avionics and information
technology
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 14
Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Boeing
Still-favorable borrowing environment
527
606 572
409
312 256 271
375
564 620
492 527
381
281 285 290
398 441
375
481 462 477
601
666
757 766 733
95
163
157
138
123
124 126
182
229
294
311
325
303
305 320
378
434
453
483
498 510 534
588
612
624 640
631
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E 2016E
NumberofAircraft
Boeing Deliveries Airbus Deliveries
Down 51%
Over 4 Years
Down 36%
Over 4 Years
2012A-2015E
CAGR of 5.3%
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 15
Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Credit Suisse research
And the result is, record deliveries
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 16
Commercial OE
Source: Credit Suisse research
But, there are some watch items
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 17
Commercial OE – Key Concerns
Source: Credit Suisse research
Competition from new entrants
 Bombardier CSeries
 COMAC 919
 Russian & Japanese Regional Jets
3.0
2.7
4.7
3.8
4.0
5.3
3.5
3.4
4.4
4.4
3.9
3.2
3.5
4.2
3.1
4.2
4.0
3.7
4.3
3.0
3.6
3.0
5.0
4.4
3.5
4.5
4.3
5.8
5.5
5.2
6.7
11.7
12.2
17.6
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Average Order Size Average Order Size 1980-2010
2004-2010 Average Order
Size = 4.1 Aircraft
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 18
Commercial OE – Key Concerns
Source: Ascend, Credit Suisse research
Boeing and Airbus have responded by aggressively selling aircraft
For the first time in 30 years average sale quantities are rising rapidly
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 19
Commercial OE – Key Concerns
Source: Credit Suisse research
We expect that these large orders reflect, to some extent,
aggressive pricing, which is causing the OEMs to review
their cost structure.
At Boeing, this is called “Partnering for Success”
So suppliers will need to learn how to raise the bar on
quality, value and innovation while lowering prices.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Orders Deliveries
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 20
Commercial OE – Key Concerns
Source: Credit Suisse research
While all of this is happening, the business jet industry
remains in a five-year slump with all of the associated
pricing and cost issues without the up-cycle
Commercial Aftermarket
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 22
Commercial Aftermarket – Traffic & Capacity
IATA Forecasts Traffic Growth of 5.3% in 2013 and Capacity Growth of 4.3%
Source: IATA Traffic & Capacity Data
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Y/Y Traffic Growth Y/Y Capacity Growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
# of Retirements (Right Axis) Average Age at Retirement (Left Axis)
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 23
Commercial Aftermarket
Source: Credit Suisse research
With all of these new aircraft deliveries, retirements are accelerating,
and retirement age is dropping, putting viable aircraft & parts to rest
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 24
Commercial Aftermarket – Surplus Parts Glut
Source: Credit Suisse research
This is creating a two-pronged problem for some suppliers:
1. As fleets get younger, parts for older aircraft are
seeing a demand shortfall.
2. As older aircraft are parked to make room for newer
ones, their parts can cannibalize spares from the
original component supplier.
So, suppliers of parts for older aircraft are experiencing
pressure that could linger for a while
Defense & Government
Services
Defense
19%
Medicare &
Medicaid
24%
Social
Security
20%
Discretionary
18%
Other
Mandatory
13%
Net Interest
6%
North
America
37%
Central &
South
America
4%
Europe
25%
Middle
East
8%
Asia &
Oceania
24%
Africa
2%
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 26
Defense – Global Defense Markets
U.S. Defense Spending in the Context of the Federal Budget
The U.S. Accounts for ~Half of Global Defense Spending
Source: SIPRI; The White House
Even with domestic budgetary pressures, the
onset of Sequestration, and continued growth
in military expenditure by China, the U.S easily
remains the biggest defense spender in the
world.
Defense accounts for almost 20% of the total
US federal budget, and almost half of
discretionary spending.
Source: Credit Suisse research, US DOD
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 27
Defense – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Credit Suisse research
Continued strong cash flows are supporting earnings and
keeping shareholders interested
International demand has been holding up as the threat
environment requires a high level of vigilance everywhere
Furthering that point, let’s take a look at Chinese spending
on the next slide
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 28
Defense – Key Positive Considerations
Source: Credit Suisse research
0
350
700
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
2012
$669
$158
Berlin Wall down
Sequestration
9/ 11
0%
3%
6%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
4.4%
2.0%
China US
 Emerging peer China
could be a major driver
of US defense growth
 China’s 10-year
growth rate 19.1%
compares to 1.8% for
the US, with less than
half the GDP
percentage
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 29
Defense
Source: Credit Suisse research
But, obviously, there are major issues
facing the Defense markets too
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 30
Defense – Historical & Forecast US Defense Spending
In constant dollars, the FYDP suggests relatively flat topline between FY’14 &
FY’18.
But, it also implies that the defense topline stays ~$150B above historical troughs.Source: US DOD
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY48
FY50
FY52
FY54
FY56
FY58
FY60
FY62
FY64
FY66
FY68
FY70
FY72
FY74
FY76
FY78
FY80
FY82
FY84
FY86
FY88
FY90
FY92
FY94
FY96
FY98
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
Korea
Vietnam
Reagan
Build-up
Iraq /
Afghanistan
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 31
Defense – The Budget Deficit
Annual Federal Revenues ~$2.6T
Annual Federal Expenditures ~$3.7T
Equals an annual ~$1.1T Federal Budget Deficit
Sequester may not make a dent in anything but industry
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 32
Credit Suisse Budget Scenarios
400
450
500
550
600
650
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
FY12 FYDP
BCA 2011
FY13 FYDP
FY14 FYDP
Full Sequester
Boiling Frog
Source: US DOD, Credit Suisse research
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 33
Defense – Quarterly Orders Are Weakening
Book:Bills Running Below 1.0x in 2013 As Sequester Slows Order Pipeline
Source: Credit Suisse research, Company data
0.00x
0.20x
0.40x
0.60x
0.80x
1.00x
1.20x
1.40x
1.60x
1.80x
Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10Q1'11Q2'11Q3'11Q4'11Q1'12Q2'12Q3'12Q4'12Q1'13Q2'13
Defense Primes Gov't Services
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 34
Defense – Key Concerns Summarized
Source: Credit Suisse research
• US combat operations in southwest Asia are ending,
eliminating a big driver of US defense spending
• Resources are dwindling with the big federal deficit.
• These dwindling resources are already pressuring order flow, and
will eventually impact long-cycle platform and product businesses
and are already affecting short-cycle services activity
• Rising interest rates are mitigating the yield trade
HOLT Analysis
2-year forward consensus sales growth Market-implied sales growth(1)
HOLT Shows the Market Expects Better Returns from Defense, with Less Predictability of
Growth
Returns on Capital – Next twelve months CFROI
Source: HOLT CFROI framework and global database, FactSet.
(1) Sales growth embedded in current market valuation based on consensus sales growth estimates and HOLT DCF model.
Sales growth
23.6%
15.7% 15.4% 15.0% 14.8% 14.5% 14.4% 11.2% 11.2% 10.3%
8.2% 7.7% 7.6% 6.1%
Aftermarket Engines Government
Services
US Defense
Primes
US Defense
Tier 1
Tier 1
Commercial
Crossover US
Space
Tier 2
Commercial
European
Defense
Primes
Large
Commercial
BizJets European
Defense
Tier 1
Regional Jets
5-year
median
CFROI:
20.4% 14.0% 21.5% 15.0% 19.3% 13.3% 14.9% 11.9% 10.8% 10.5% 6.9% 6.8% 8.4% 5.5%
7.8%
7.1%
6.7% 6.1%
5.2% 5.1% 5.0%
4.8%
4.0%
2.8%
1.1%
(2.1%) (2.4%) (2.8%)
6.6%
4.0%
5.3% 5.5% 5.4% 4.9% 5.3%
7.7%
4.4%
2.5%
5.9%
2.5%
6.0%
4.0%
Regional
Jets
US Space BizJets Large
Commercial
Tier 1
Commercial
Tier 2
Commercial
Engines Aftermarket Crossover European
Defense Tier
1
European
Defense
Primes
US Defense
Primes
Government
Services
US Defense
Tier 1
Median: 12.8%
Commercial Defense Mixed
36
HOLT
US Defense Primes
US Defense Tier 1
Government Services
US Space
European Defense
Primes
European Defense Tier
1
Large Commercial
BizJets
Engines
Tier 1 Commercial
Tier 2 Commercial
Crossover
Regional Jets
0.5x
1.0x
1.5x
2.0x
2.5x
3.0x
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
Value creation driver: CFROI
Next twelve months CFROI spread(2)
HOLTcurrentprice/book(1)
Source: HOLT CFROI framework and global database as of October 2013.
(1) HOLT price/book is equivalent to current enterprise value/net capital invested which is defined as ([market
value of equity + debt] / [inflation adjusted net assets, including capitalized operating leases]).
(2) Defined as CFROI less the cost of capital; next twelve months (NTM) CFROI based on consensus EPS
estimates.
Peer regression R² = 90%
S&P 500 regression R² = 83%
Valuation
Aftermarket (18.3%, 4.72x)
Commercial
Defense
Mixed
37
The Market Indicates that Defense has Potential for Upside,
while Commercial is Already Highly Valued
HOLT
Appendix
Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 39
Aerospace & Defense Valuations
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research, Factset
7.94x
6.0%3.5x 7.3%
13.6x 15.1x 16.6x 12.3x 8.12x 8.15x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 7.4x 6.9x 7.0x 8.9%0.5 41.0% 21.6% 12.1% 3.4x 1.7%
Company Ticker
P/E Ratio EV/Sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA PEG ROA ROE ROIC P/Book Div Yield FCF Yield
2012A 2013E 2014E 5-Yr Avg 2012A 2013E 2014E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E
Boeing BA 23.4x 18.4x 17.1x 19.5x 1.10x 1.04x 0.96x 14.2x 11.8x 11.1x 11.1x 9.5x 9.0x 1.9 55.1% 56.8% 27.3% 15.4x 1.5% 5.0%
Bombardier BBDb.TO 11.1x 12.6x 10.1x 11.1x 0.54x 0.53x 0.51x 11.2x 9.0x 8.8x 7.8x 6.7x 6.5x 0.5 79.6% 29.9% 9.7% 8.5x 2.4% -3.6%
EADS EAD.PA 33.3x 16.1x 12.1x 19.0x 0.49x 0.47x 0.44x 18.1x 11.7x 9.3x 10.5x 8.1x 6.9x 0.6 N/A N/A N/A 3.8x 2.2% 9.8%
Embraer ERJ N/A 17.8x 13.0x 14.4x 0.87x 0.87x 0.80x 8.8x 9.5x 8.2x 6.0x 6.4x 5.7x 0.8 37.0% 15.3% 6.9% 2.0x 2.0% 11.2%
Textron TXT 20.8x 14.1x 11.9x 20.8x 0.81x 0.79x 0.77x 9.0x 11.4x 9.7x 7.2x 7.6x 6.9x 1.5 40.3% 15.6% 9.2% 2.5x 0.3% 23.4%
Commercial OEM 22.2x 15.8x 12.8x 16.9x 0.76x 0.74x 0.70x 12.3x 10.7x 9.4x 8.5x 7.7x 7.0x 1.1 53.0% 29.4% 13.3% 6.4x 1.7% 9.1%
MTU Aero Engines MTXGn.DE 15.6x N/A N/A 13.3x N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.9x 2.0% N/A
Rolls-Royce RR.L 14.7x 10.5x 9.6x 10.8x 1.81x 1.44x 1.36x 14.7x 12.1x 11.3x 11.1x 9.7x 9.0x 1.1 N/A N/A N/A 3.1x 3.1% 6.6%
Safran SAF.PA 25.6x 16.0x 13.8x 20.5x 1.47x 1.35x 1.26x 19.3x 15.6x 13.6x 13.9x 11.8x 10.5x 1.1 N/A N/A N/A 2.8x 2.7% 8.7%
United Technologies UTX 20.0x 17.4x 15.5x 16.3x 2.01x 1.83x 1.79x 15.1x 12.4x 11.2x 12.6x 10.6x 9.7x 1.6 44.0% 20.1% 11.9% 3.8x 2.0% 5.5%
Commercial Engine Suppliers 19.0x 14.6x 13.0x 15.2x 1.76x 1.54x 1.47x 16.4x 13.4x 12.1x 12.5x 10.7x 9.7x 1.3 44.0% 20.1% 11.9% 3.2x 2.5% 6.9%
AAR Corp. * AIR 16.8x 15.0x 13.2x 12.7x 0.84x 0.81x 0.79x 13.3x 11.4x 10.9x 8.2x 7.5x
3.05x 2.77x
0.0% 11.1%7.0x 2.0 38.2% 8.2% 3.6% 1.2x
BE Aerospace BEAV 27.1x 21.7x 18.0x 21.7x 2.41x 17.4x 14.8x 12.3x 15.3x 13.1x
1.55x 1.56x
0.0% 3.0%11.1x 1.1 47.4% 16.5% 6.4% 3.7x
Esterline * ESL 22.1x 14.8x 12.9x 14.7x 1.50x 12.9x 13.4x 11.2x 8.9x 9.1x 7.9x 1.1 34.1% 12.0% 4.5% 1.5x 0.0% 7.7%
Heico * HEI 41.8x 35.9x 31.6x 32.9x 3.95x 3.56x 3.25x 21.7x 19.9x 17.6x 18.3x 16.4x 14.9x 2.8 17.5% 12.7% 10.4% 5.7x 0.2% 3.5%
Hexcel HXL 25.7x 22.5x 19.6x 22.2x 2.68x 2.51x 2.31x 17.6x 16.0x 13.8x 14.2x 13.0x 11.4x 1.6 19.2% 16.0% 14.4% 4.0x 0.0% 1.7%
Honeywell HON 21.2x 17.4x 15.5x 17.2x 1.85x 1.78x 1.70x 21.0x 11.4x 10.8x 16.3x 10.0x
1.32x 1.26x
2.0% 5.7%9.5x 1.6 31.2% 23.5% 15.6% 5.2x
Moog * MOG.A 17.7x 17.1x 14.8x 15.5x 1.22x 13.4x 13.0x 11.0x 9.5x 8.1x 8.0x 1.4 32.4% 35.4% 7.9% 2.0x 0.0% 5.2%
Precision Castparts * PCP 24.7x 19.8x 16.9x 21.1x 5.22x 4.50x 3.78x 21.1x 17.7x 13.9x 21.1x 17.7x 13.9x 0.9 26.5% 15.3% 13.0% 3.6x 0.0% 3.2%
Rockwell Collins * COL 16.6x 15.1x 15.7x 15.0x 1.89x 1.91x 1.76x 9.8x 10.6x 10.1x 8.8x 10.2x 10.1x 3.3 38.2% 29.6% 29.7% 7.8x 1.7% 5.0%
Spirit Aerosystems SPR 39.4x 77.8x 9.6x 32.1x 0.75x 0.69x 0.63x 28.4x 21.1x 7.2x 13.2x 11.5x
5.93x 5.27x
0.0% -3.1%5.7x 0.4 36.7% 15.1% 1.1% 1.8x
Transdigm * TDG 21.0x 20.5x 18.8x 18.7x 4.75x 14.4x 13.2x 11.2x 12.5x 11.6x 10.1x 1.7 74.4% N/A 7.4% 6.0x 0.0% 5.5%
Triumph Group * TGI 14.1x 11.5x 13.2x 11.6x 1.45x 1.35x 1.26x 9.7x 9.4x 9.6x 7.9x 7.5x
1.67x 1.62x
0.2% 5.2%7.4x 2.0 35.4% 12.3% 9.8% 1.7x
Woodward * WWD 20.9x 20.5x 18.1x 18.8x 1.56x 13.9x 14.0x 12.1x 10.7x 10.7x
2.28x 2.07x
0.8% 2.1%9.4x 1.8 27.4% 12.4% 10.4% 2.8x
Commercial Suppliers 23.8x 23.8x 16.8x 19.6x 2.47x 16.5x 14.3x 11.7x 12.7x 11.3x 9.7x 1.7 35.3% 17.4% 10.3% 3.6x 0.4% 4.3%
BAE Systems BAES.L 6.1x 6.5x 6.6x 5.6x -- -- -- 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 8.3x 7.7x 8.1x 6.9 N/A N/A N/A
General Dynamics GD N/A 12.5x 11.8x N/A -- -- -- 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 20.3x 6.9x 6.9x 2.1 25.5% 19.3% -2.0% 2.7x 2.5% 8.6%
L-3 Communications LLL 11.8x 11.7x 12.3x 10.3x 11.3x 11.1x 11.6x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 7.1x 7.7x 8.3x -6.2 40.1% 13.4% 7.8% 1.6x 2.1% 12.0%
Lockheed Martin LMT 14.9x 13.3x 12.4x 11.4x 12.5x 12.0x N/A 0.9x 1.0x 7.8%
Northrop Grumman NOC 12.7x 12.6x 12.4x
1.0x 7.9x 7.6x 7.3x
0.9x 0.9x
100.5% 40.2% N/A 3.7%2.0 97.0%
14.3% 2.5x 2.3% 8.9%1.0x 6.1x 6.1x 6.6x 3.3 29.2%
Defense Primes 18.3x 19.7x 13.7x 15.5x
20.7%10.5x 13.2x 13.2x 14.2x
5.34x 5.13x 4.47x 9.5x 8.5x 6.6x 11.0x 9.5x 8.5x 1.6 41.2% 26.1%
Alliant Techsystems * ATK 12.8x 12.2x 11.7x 8.9x
14.1% 3.3%
12.7% 3.3x 1.7% 5.7%
Defense Mid & Small Cap 14.9x 14.6x 12.7x 12.4x 7.55x 7.53x 6.71x 4.0x 3.7x 3.2x 9.1x
--
3.1x 2.3% 7.1%7.8x 7.4x 1.9 43.9% 28.0% 13.2%
CACI * CACI 11.5x 10.8x 12.0x 12.4x -- -- 0.5x 0.5x 0.6x 5.6x 6.1x 6.4x -1.4 16.7% 9.9% 9.5% 1.3x 0.0% 14.3%
ManTech MANT 11.3x 13.6x 14.7x 12.2x -- -- -- 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 6.0x 12.2%
SAIC * SAI N/A 29.9x 57.1x N/A --
7.8x 8.2x
0.4x 0.4x 0.5x 10.6x
0.9x 2.9%-1.7 14.6% 5.6% 7.2%
1.0%
Government Services (Federal I.T.)
5.3x 7.7x -1.6 33.1% 9.5% 1.5x-- --
-- -- -- 0.8x 0.9x 0.9x 6.3x 6.6x 6.1x 3.1 39.7% 15.5% 10.8% 2.2x 0.9% 5.3%
Huntington Ingalls HII 21.0x 18.1x 13.9x 15.7x N/A N/A N/A 0.6x 0.6x 0.7x 7.5x 7.1x 6.3x 0.8 71.2% 31.6% 5.7% 5.3x 0.6% 3.6%
Raytheon RTN 13.5x 13.4x 12.8x 11.3x 6.4x 6.4x 6.4x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 14.6% 3.1x 2.8% 8.6%7.6x 7.9x 7.7x 1.6 37.1% 21.5%
Booz Allen Hamilton * BAH 11.8x 11.5x 11.5x 14.6x 39.9%-- -- -- 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x
N/A
11.0% 11.6x 2.0% 15.7%8.7x 7.8x 7.5x -5.3 85.5%
Exelis XLS 7.8x 10.3x 9.9x 9.1x 8.6x N/A 0.4x 0.5x 0.5x 3.4x 2.9x 2.4% 12.8%4.1x 4.1x 3.6 39.0% 29.4% 20.6%
Questions?
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 14-Oct-2013)
AAR (AIR.N, $27.79)
Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK.N, $101.55)
BAE Systems (BAES.L, 443.8p)
BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV.OQ, $76.78)
Boeing (BA.N, $119.46)
Bombardier Inc (SVS) (BBDb.TO, C$4.97)
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH.N, $18.96)
CACI International, Inc. (CACI.N, $68.37)
EADS (EAD.PA, €48.92)
Esterline Technologies (ESL.N, $79.47)
Exelis (XLS.N, $15.6)
General Dynamics Corporation (GD.N, $87.81)
Heico Corp (HEI.N, $66.72)
Hexcel Corporation (HXL.N, $40.08)
Honeywell International Inc. (HON.N, $85.98)
Huntington Ingalls (HII.N, $71.3)
L-3 Communications (LLL.N, $94.98)
Leidos (LDOS.N, $46.27)
Lockheed Martin (LMT.N, $127.5)
MTU Aero Engines (MTXGn.DE, €70.4)
ManTech International Corp. (MANT.OQ, $29.05)
Meggitt (MGGT.L, 541.0p)
Moby Oil & Gas (MOG.AX, A$0.005)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC.N, $98.81)
Precision Castparts (PCP.N, $241.51)
Raytheon Company (RTN.N, $76.38)
Rockwell Collins, Inc. (COL.N, $68.92)
Rolls-Royce (RR.L, 1125.0p)
Safran (SAF.PA, €45.95)
Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N, $24.71)
Textron (TXT.N, $27.29)
TransDigm (TDG.N, $140.5)
Triumph Group Inc (TGI.N, $71.05)
United Technologies Corp (UTX.N, $106.9)
Wesco Air Hldg (WAIR.N, $19.76)
Woodward Inc (WWD.OQ, $42.07)
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
I, Robert Spingarn, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and
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Neutral/Hold* 40% (48% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 15% (39% banking clients)
Restricted 3%
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See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
The subject company (ESL.N, LMT.N, HON.N, UTX.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, HXL.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N,
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Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (RTN.N, NOC.N, BAH.N, TDG.N, BA.N, GD.N, HII.N, SPR.N) within the
past 12 months.
Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (LMT.N, HON.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, BEAV.OQ, BA.N, TXT.N) within the
past 12 months
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the past 12 months.
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SPR.N) within the past 12 months
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UTX.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, HXL.N, PCP.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, MANT.OQ, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N, AIR.N, BA.N, COL.N, GD.N,
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RTN.N, NOC.N, BEAV.OQ, BA.N, TXT.N) within the past 12 months
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse makes a market in the following subject companies (ESL.N, LMT.N, WWD.OQ, HON.N, UTX.N, RTN.N,
NOC.N, HXL.N, PCP.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, MANT.OQ, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N, AIR.N, BA.N, COL.N, GD.N, HEI.N, HII.N,
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Goodrich (GR) in a potential transaction with United Technologies Corp.
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company (SAI). As of the date of this report, an analyst involved in the preparation of this report has the following material conflict of interest with the
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Important Regional Disclosures
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HON.N, UTX.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, HXL.N, PCP.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, MANT.OQ, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N, BA.N, BBDb.TO,
COL.N, GD.N, HEI.N, HII.N, SPR.N, TXT.N, LDOS.N) within the past 12 months
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Holt aerospace & defense industry

  • 1. Aviation & Aerospace Industry Manufacturing Summit (AAIMS) Setting the Stage Rob Spingarn Credit Suisse Aerospace & Defense Equity Research (212) 538-1895, robert.spingarn@credit-suisse.com October 16, 2013 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™ Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Credit Suisse has decided not to enter into business relationships with companies that Credit Suisse has determined to be involved in the development, manufacture or acquisition of anti- personnel mines and cluster munitions. For Credit Suisse's position on the issue, please see https://www.credit-suisse.com/responsibility/doc/policy_summaries_en.pdf.
  • 2. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 2 My Role as a Sell-side Equity Analyst Source: Credit Suisse research • We form the Investment Theses for Stocks/Industries in a Coverage Universe • Traditional sell-side firms such as Credit Suisse (CS) have analyst teams that cover ~50+ industries. • Aerospace & Defense is 1 of 60 sector teams at CS • We provide investment recommendations through the following mechanisms: • Buy/Sell/Hold Ratings • Target Prices to value the equity embedded in a company • Earnings & Cash Flow forecasts to define a path to the Target Price value • Our clients are mutual funds, pension funds, and hedge funds that own and trade stocks. They are collectively known as the “buy side”.
  • 3. 3 Your Role as Aerospace & Defense Suppliers Defense Primes BizJets Raytheon Company Bombardier Inc. Northrop Grumman Corporation Embraer S.A. Lockheed Martin Corporation Textron Inc. General Dynamics Corporation Dassault Systemes SA Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Engines Alliant Techsystems Inc. Rolls-Royce Holdings plc Defense Tier 1 United Technologies Corporatio Exelis Inc. MTU Aero Engines AG L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. Tier 1 Commercial Cubic Corporation Honeywell International Inc. Government Services United Technologies Corporatio Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, In CACI International Inc Triumph Group, Inc. ManTech International Corporation WOODWARD, INC. Leidos Holdings Inc. Zodiac Aerospace SA Engility Holdings, Inc. Safran SA ICF International, Inc. B/ E Aerospace Inc. The KEY W Holding Corporation Aftermarket US Space TransDigm Group Incorporated Orbital Sciences Corporation HEICO Corporation Alliant Techsystems Inc. Meggitt PLC MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates AAR CORP. GenCorp Inc. Tier 2 Commercial European Defense Primes Esterline Technologies Corpora BAE Systems plc Anaren, Inc. Finmeccanica S.p.A. Aeroflex Holding Corp. Saab AB Moog Inc. Thales SA Duocommun Incorporated European Defense Tier 1 Astronics Corporation Chemring Group PLC Curtiss-Wright Corporation Rheinmetall AG Crossover Ultra Electronics Holdings plc Rockwell Collins, Inc. Large Commercial Harris Corporation The Boeing Company FLIR Systems, Inc. European Aeronautics Defence & Space CAE Inc. Regional Jets Bombardier Inc. Embraer S.A. Company Company
  • 4. -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 1/5/2009 1/5/2010 1/5/2011 1/5/2012 1/5/2013 Commercial Aerospace Defense Government Services S&P 500 Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 4 Aerospace & Defense – Stock Performance Absolute Performance - Commercial Aerospace vs Defense vs Government Services vs S&P 500 Source: Factset
  • 5. -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Defense Gov't Services Aerospace Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 5 Absolute Performance by Year – Commercial Aerospace vs Defense vs Government Services Source: Factset Aerospace & Defense – Stock Performance
  • 7. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 7 Commercial Aerospace – Two Sub-Cycles Original Equipment (OE) is Late-Cycle; Aftermarket is Early-Cycle Y/Y Change in Aircraft Production Y/Y Change in Traffic Demand Source: IATA Traffic & Capacity Data, Credit Suisse research -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
  • 9. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 9 Commercial OE – What Drives OE Original Equipment is Primarily Driven by Orders Source: Credit Suisse Research Orders Fleet Replacement Fleet Expansion High Fuel Costs Warranties Cheap Financing Air Traffic Demand Cheap Financing
  • 11. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 11 Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations Source: IATA, Credit Suisse research High fuel prices may be the single most important driver % of Operating Costs Average Price per Barrel of Crude Break-even Price per Barrel Total Fuel Cost (US$B) 2003 14% $28.80 $23.40 $44 2004 17% $38.30 $34.50 $65 2005 22% $54.50 $51.80 $91 2006 26% $65.10 $68.30 $117 2007 28% $73.00 $82.20 $135 2008 33% $99.00 $82.50 $189 2009 26% $62.00 $58.90 $125 2010 26% $79.40 $91.70 $139 2011 28% $111.20 $116.70 $176 2012 32% $111.80 $116.40 $210 2013E 31% $108.00 $115.60 $214
  • 12. 13,557 7,372 1,673 6,082 504 11,734 3,736 934 3,780 553 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Africa Asia & Middle East Europe Latin America & Caribbean North America 2002 2012 Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 12 Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations Source: Ascend, Credit Suisse research Globalization People Per Aircraft Seat by region
  • 13. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 13 Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations Source: Credit Suisse research And technological advances  More fuel efficient engines (GTF, Leap)  Lighter weight composites  Improved avionics and information technology
  • 14. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 14 Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations Source: Boeing Still-favorable borrowing environment
  • 15. 527 606 572 409 312 256 271 375 564 620 492 527 381 281 285 290 398 441 375 481 462 477 601 666 757 766 733 95 163 157 138 123 124 126 182 229 294 311 325 303 305 320 378 434 453 483 498 510 534 588 612 624 640 631 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014E 2016E NumberofAircraft Boeing Deliveries Airbus Deliveries Down 51% Over 4 Years Down 36% Over 4 Years 2012A-2015E CAGR of 5.3% Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 15 Commercial OE – Key Positive Considerations Source: Credit Suisse research And the result is, record deliveries
  • 16. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 16 Commercial OE Source: Credit Suisse research But, there are some watch items
  • 17. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 17 Commercial OE – Key Concerns Source: Credit Suisse research Competition from new entrants  Bombardier CSeries  COMAC 919  Russian & Japanese Regional Jets
  • 18. 3.0 2.7 4.7 3.8 4.0 5.3 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.2 3.5 4.2 3.1 4.2 4.0 3.7 4.3 3.0 3.6 3.0 5.0 4.4 3.5 4.5 4.3 5.8 5.5 5.2 6.7 11.7 12.2 17.6 - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Average Order Size Average Order Size 1980-2010 2004-2010 Average Order Size = 4.1 Aircraft Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 18 Commercial OE – Key Concerns Source: Ascend, Credit Suisse research Boeing and Airbus have responded by aggressively selling aircraft For the first time in 30 years average sale quantities are rising rapidly
  • 19. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 19 Commercial OE – Key Concerns Source: Credit Suisse research We expect that these large orders reflect, to some extent, aggressive pricing, which is causing the OEMs to review their cost structure. At Boeing, this is called “Partnering for Success” So suppliers will need to learn how to raise the bar on quality, value and innovation while lowering prices.
  • 20. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Orders Deliveries Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 20 Commercial OE – Key Concerns Source: Credit Suisse research While all of this is happening, the business jet industry remains in a five-year slump with all of the associated pricing and cost issues without the up-cycle
  • 22. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 22 Commercial Aftermarket – Traffic & Capacity IATA Forecasts Traffic Growth of 5.3% in 2013 and Capacity Growth of 4.3% Source: IATA Traffic & Capacity Data -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Y/Y Traffic Growth Y/Y Capacity Growth
  • 23. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 # of Retirements (Right Axis) Average Age at Retirement (Left Axis) Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 23 Commercial Aftermarket Source: Credit Suisse research With all of these new aircraft deliveries, retirements are accelerating, and retirement age is dropping, putting viable aircraft & parts to rest
  • 24. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 24 Commercial Aftermarket – Surplus Parts Glut Source: Credit Suisse research This is creating a two-pronged problem for some suppliers: 1. As fleets get younger, parts for older aircraft are seeing a demand shortfall. 2. As older aircraft are parked to make room for newer ones, their parts can cannibalize spares from the original component supplier. So, suppliers of parts for older aircraft are experiencing pressure that could linger for a while
  • 26. Defense 19% Medicare & Medicaid 24% Social Security 20% Discretionary 18% Other Mandatory 13% Net Interest 6% North America 37% Central & South America 4% Europe 25% Middle East 8% Asia & Oceania 24% Africa 2% Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 26 Defense – Global Defense Markets U.S. Defense Spending in the Context of the Federal Budget The U.S. Accounts for ~Half of Global Defense Spending Source: SIPRI; The White House Even with domestic budgetary pressures, the onset of Sequestration, and continued growth in military expenditure by China, the U.S easily remains the biggest defense spender in the world. Defense accounts for almost 20% of the total US federal budget, and almost half of discretionary spending. Source: Credit Suisse research, US DOD
  • 27. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 27 Defense – Key Positive Considerations Source: Credit Suisse research Continued strong cash flows are supporting earnings and keeping shareholders interested International demand has been holding up as the threat environment requires a high level of vigilance everywhere Furthering that point, let’s take a look at Chinese spending on the next slide
  • 28. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 28 Defense – Key Positive Considerations Source: Credit Suisse research 0 350 700 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2012 $669 $158 Berlin Wall down Sequestration 9/ 11 0% 3% 6% 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 4.4% 2.0% China US  Emerging peer China could be a major driver of US defense growth  China’s 10-year growth rate 19.1% compares to 1.8% for the US, with less than half the GDP percentage
  • 29. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 29 Defense Source: Credit Suisse research But, obviously, there are major issues facing the Defense markets too
  • 30. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 30 Defense – Historical & Forecast US Defense Spending In constant dollars, the FYDP suggests relatively flat topline between FY’14 & FY’18. But, it also implies that the defense topline stays ~$150B above historical troughs.Source: US DOD 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY48 FY50 FY52 FY54 FY56 FY58 FY60 FY62 FY64 FY66 FY68 FY70 FY72 FY74 FY76 FY78 FY80 FY82 FY84 FY86 FY88 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 Korea Vietnam Reagan Build-up Iraq / Afghanistan
  • 31. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 31 Defense – The Budget Deficit Annual Federal Revenues ~$2.6T Annual Federal Expenditures ~$3.7T Equals an annual ~$1.1T Federal Budget Deficit Sequester may not make a dent in anything but industry
  • 32. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 32 Credit Suisse Budget Scenarios 400 450 500 550 600 650 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY12 FYDP BCA 2011 FY13 FYDP FY14 FYDP Full Sequester Boiling Frog Source: US DOD, Credit Suisse research
  • 33. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 33 Defense – Quarterly Orders Are Weakening Book:Bills Running Below 1.0x in 2013 As Sequester Slows Order Pipeline Source: Credit Suisse research, Company data 0.00x 0.20x 0.40x 0.60x 0.80x 1.00x 1.20x 1.40x 1.60x 1.80x Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10Q1'11Q2'11Q3'11Q4'11Q1'12Q2'12Q3'12Q4'12Q1'13Q2'13 Defense Primes Gov't Services
  • 34. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 34 Defense – Key Concerns Summarized Source: Credit Suisse research • US combat operations in southwest Asia are ending, eliminating a big driver of US defense spending • Resources are dwindling with the big federal deficit. • These dwindling resources are already pressuring order flow, and will eventually impact long-cycle platform and product businesses and are already affecting short-cycle services activity • Rising interest rates are mitigating the yield trade
  • 36. 2-year forward consensus sales growth Market-implied sales growth(1) HOLT Shows the Market Expects Better Returns from Defense, with Less Predictability of Growth Returns on Capital – Next twelve months CFROI Source: HOLT CFROI framework and global database, FactSet. (1) Sales growth embedded in current market valuation based on consensus sales growth estimates and HOLT DCF model. Sales growth 23.6% 15.7% 15.4% 15.0% 14.8% 14.5% 14.4% 11.2% 11.2% 10.3% 8.2% 7.7% 7.6% 6.1% Aftermarket Engines Government Services US Defense Primes US Defense Tier 1 Tier 1 Commercial Crossover US Space Tier 2 Commercial European Defense Primes Large Commercial BizJets European Defense Tier 1 Regional Jets 5-year median CFROI: 20.4% 14.0% 21.5% 15.0% 19.3% 13.3% 14.9% 11.9% 10.8% 10.5% 6.9% 6.8% 8.4% 5.5% 7.8% 7.1% 6.7% 6.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.8% 4.0% 2.8% 1.1% (2.1%) (2.4%) (2.8%) 6.6% 4.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.4% 4.9% 5.3% 7.7% 4.4% 2.5% 5.9% 2.5% 6.0% 4.0% Regional Jets US Space BizJets Large Commercial Tier 1 Commercial Tier 2 Commercial Engines Aftermarket Crossover European Defense Tier 1 European Defense Primes US Defense Primes Government Services US Defense Tier 1 Median: 12.8% Commercial Defense Mixed 36 HOLT
  • 37. US Defense Primes US Defense Tier 1 Government Services US Space European Defense Primes European Defense Tier 1 Large Commercial BizJets Engines Tier 1 Commercial Tier 2 Commercial Crossover Regional Jets 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% Value creation driver: CFROI Next twelve months CFROI spread(2) HOLTcurrentprice/book(1) Source: HOLT CFROI framework and global database as of October 2013. (1) HOLT price/book is equivalent to current enterprise value/net capital invested which is defined as ([market value of equity + debt] / [inflation adjusted net assets, including capitalized operating leases]). (2) Defined as CFROI less the cost of capital; next twelve months (NTM) CFROI based on consensus EPS estimates. Peer regression R² = 90% S&P 500 regression R² = 83% Valuation Aftermarket (18.3%, 4.72x) Commercial Defense Mixed 37 The Market Indicates that Defense has Potential for Upside, while Commercial is Already Highly Valued HOLT
  • 39. Date: 10/31/2013 Slide 39 Aerospace & Defense Valuations Source: Company data, Credit Suisse research, Factset 7.94x 6.0%3.5x 7.3% 13.6x 15.1x 16.6x 12.3x 8.12x 8.15x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 7.4x 6.9x 7.0x 8.9%0.5 41.0% 21.6% 12.1% 3.4x 1.7% Company Ticker P/E Ratio EV/Sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA PEG ROA ROE ROIC P/Book Div Yield FCF Yield 2012A 2013E 2014E 5-Yr Avg 2012A 2013E 2014E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2012A 2013E 2014E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E 2013E Boeing BA 23.4x 18.4x 17.1x 19.5x 1.10x 1.04x 0.96x 14.2x 11.8x 11.1x 11.1x 9.5x 9.0x 1.9 55.1% 56.8% 27.3% 15.4x 1.5% 5.0% Bombardier BBDb.TO 11.1x 12.6x 10.1x 11.1x 0.54x 0.53x 0.51x 11.2x 9.0x 8.8x 7.8x 6.7x 6.5x 0.5 79.6% 29.9% 9.7% 8.5x 2.4% -3.6% EADS EAD.PA 33.3x 16.1x 12.1x 19.0x 0.49x 0.47x 0.44x 18.1x 11.7x 9.3x 10.5x 8.1x 6.9x 0.6 N/A N/A N/A 3.8x 2.2% 9.8% Embraer ERJ N/A 17.8x 13.0x 14.4x 0.87x 0.87x 0.80x 8.8x 9.5x 8.2x 6.0x 6.4x 5.7x 0.8 37.0% 15.3% 6.9% 2.0x 2.0% 11.2% Textron TXT 20.8x 14.1x 11.9x 20.8x 0.81x 0.79x 0.77x 9.0x 11.4x 9.7x 7.2x 7.6x 6.9x 1.5 40.3% 15.6% 9.2% 2.5x 0.3% 23.4% Commercial OEM 22.2x 15.8x 12.8x 16.9x 0.76x 0.74x 0.70x 12.3x 10.7x 9.4x 8.5x 7.7x 7.0x 1.1 53.0% 29.4% 13.3% 6.4x 1.7% 9.1% MTU Aero Engines MTXGn.DE 15.6x N/A N/A 13.3x N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.9x 2.0% N/A Rolls-Royce RR.L 14.7x 10.5x 9.6x 10.8x 1.81x 1.44x 1.36x 14.7x 12.1x 11.3x 11.1x 9.7x 9.0x 1.1 N/A N/A N/A 3.1x 3.1% 6.6% Safran SAF.PA 25.6x 16.0x 13.8x 20.5x 1.47x 1.35x 1.26x 19.3x 15.6x 13.6x 13.9x 11.8x 10.5x 1.1 N/A N/A N/A 2.8x 2.7% 8.7% United Technologies UTX 20.0x 17.4x 15.5x 16.3x 2.01x 1.83x 1.79x 15.1x 12.4x 11.2x 12.6x 10.6x 9.7x 1.6 44.0% 20.1% 11.9% 3.8x 2.0% 5.5% Commercial Engine Suppliers 19.0x 14.6x 13.0x 15.2x 1.76x 1.54x 1.47x 16.4x 13.4x 12.1x 12.5x 10.7x 9.7x 1.3 44.0% 20.1% 11.9% 3.2x 2.5% 6.9% AAR Corp. * AIR 16.8x 15.0x 13.2x 12.7x 0.84x 0.81x 0.79x 13.3x 11.4x 10.9x 8.2x 7.5x 3.05x 2.77x 0.0% 11.1%7.0x 2.0 38.2% 8.2% 3.6% 1.2x BE Aerospace BEAV 27.1x 21.7x 18.0x 21.7x 2.41x 17.4x 14.8x 12.3x 15.3x 13.1x 1.55x 1.56x 0.0% 3.0%11.1x 1.1 47.4% 16.5% 6.4% 3.7x Esterline * ESL 22.1x 14.8x 12.9x 14.7x 1.50x 12.9x 13.4x 11.2x 8.9x 9.1x 7.9x 1.1 34.1% 12.0% 4.5% 1.5x 0.0% 7.7% Heico * HEI 41.8x 35.9x 31.6x 32.9x 3.95x 3.56x 3.25x 21.7x 19.9x 17.6x 18.3x 16.4x 14.9x 2.8 17.5% 12.7% 10.4% 5.7x 0.2% 3.5% Hexcel HXL 25.7x 22.5x 19.6x 22.2x 2.68x 2.51x 2.31x 17.6x 16.0x 13.8x 14.2x 13.0x 11.4x 1.6 19.2% 16.0% 14.4% 4.0x 0.0% 1.7% Honeywell HON 21.2x 17.4x 15.5x 17.2x 1.85x 1.78x 1.70x 21.0x 11.4x 10.8x 16.3x 10.0x 1.32x 1.26x 2.0% 5.7%9.5x 1.6 31.2% 23.5% 15.6% 5.2x Moog * MOG.A 17.7x 17.1x 14.8x 15.5x 1.22x 13.4x 13.0x 11.0x 9.5x 8.1x 8.0x 1.4 32.4% 35.4% 7.9% 2.0x 0.0% 5.2% Precision Castparts * PCP 24.7x 19.8x 16.9x 21.1x 5.22x 4.50x 3.78x 21.1x 17.7x 13.9x 21.1x 17.7x 13.9x 0.9 26.5% 15.3% 13.0% 3.6x 0.0% 3.2% Rockwell Collins * COL 16.6x 15.1x 15.7x 15.0x 1.89x 1.91x 1.76x 9.8x 10.6x 10.1x 8.8x 10.2x 10.1x 3.3 38.2% 29.6% 29.7% 7.8x 1.7% 5.0% Spirit Aerosystems SPR 39.4x 77.8x 9.6x 32.1x 0.75x 0.69x 0.63x 28.4x 21.1x 7.2x 13.2x 11.5x 5.93x 5.27x 0.0% -3.1%5.7x 0.4 36.7% 15.1% 1.1% 1.8x Transdigm * TDG 21.0x 20.5x 18.8x 18.7x 4.75x 14.4x 13.2x 11.2x 12.5x 11.6x 10.1x 1.7 74.4% N/A 7.4% 6.0x 0.0% 5.5% Triumph Group * TGI 14.1x 11.5x 13.2x 11.6x 1.45x 1.35x 1.26x 9.7x 9.4x 9.6x 7.9x 7.5x 1.67x 1.62x 0.2% 5.2%7.4x 2.0 35.4% 12.3% 9.8% 1.7x Woodward * WWD 20.9x 20.5x 18.1x 18.8x 1.56x 13.9x 14.0x 12.1x 10.7x 10.7x 2.28x 2.07x 0.8% 2.1%9.4x 1.8 27.4% 12.4% 10.4% 2.8x Commercial Suppliers 23.8x 23.8x 16.8x 19.6x 2.47x 16.5x 14.3x 11.7x 12.7x 11.3x 9.7x 1.7 35.3% 17.4% 10.3% 3.6x 0.4% 4.3% BAE Systems BAES.L 6.1x 6.5x 6.6x 5.6x -- -- -- 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 8.3x 7.7x 8.1x 6.9 N/A N/A N/A General Dynamics GD N/A 12.5x 11.8x N/A -- -- -- 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 20.3x 6.9x 6.9x 2.1 25.5% 19.3% -2.0% 2.7x 2.5% 8.6% L-3 Communications LLL 11.8x 11.7x 12.3x 10.3x 11.3x 11.1x 11.6x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 7.1x 7.7x 8.3x -6.2 40.1% 13.4% 7.8% 1.6x 2.1% 12.0% Lockheed Martin LMT 14.9x 13.3x 12.4x 11.4x 12.5x 12.0x N/A 0.9x 1.0x 7.8% Northrop Grumman NOC 12.7x 12.6x 12.4x 1.0x 7.9x 7.6x 7.3x 0.9x 0.9x 100.5% 40.2% N/A 3.7%2.0 97.0% 14.3% 2.5x 2.3% 8.9%1.0x 6.1x 6.1x 6.6x 3.3 29.2% Defense Primes 18.3x 19.7x 13.7x 15.5x 20.7%10.5x 13.2x 13.2x 14.2x 5.34x 5.13x 4.47x 9.5x 8.5x 6.6x 11.0x 9.5x 8.5x 1.6 41.2% 26.1% Alliant Techsystems * ATK 12.8x 12.2x 11.7x 8.9x 14.1% 3.3% 12.7% 3.3x 1.7% 5.7% Defense Mid & Small Cap 14.9x 14.6x 12.7x 12.4x 7.55x 7.53x 6.71x 4.0x 3.7x 3.2x 9.1x -- 3.1x 2.3% 7.1%7.8x 7.4x 1.9 43.9% 28.0% 13.2% CACI * CACI 11.5x 10.8x 12.0x 12.4x -- -- 0.5x 0.5x 0.6x 5.6x 6.1x 6.4x -1.4 16.7% 9.9% 9.5% 1.3x 0.0% 14.3% ManTech MANT 11.3x 13.6x 14.7x 12.2x -- -- -- 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 6.0x 12.2% SAIC * SAI N/A 29.9x 57.1x N/A -- 7.8x 8.2x 0.4x 0.4x 0.5x 10.6x 0.9x 2.9%-1.7 14.6% 5.6% 7.2% 1.0% Government Services (Federal I.T.) 5.3x 7.7x -1.6 33.1% 9.5% 1.5x-- -- -- -- -- 0.8x 0.9x 0.9x 6.3x 6.6x 6.1x 3.1 39.7% 15.5% 10.8% 2.2x 0.9% 5.3% Huntington Ingalls HII 21.0x 18.1x 13.9x 15.7x N/A N/A N/A 0.6x 0.6x 0.7x 7.5x 7.1x 6.3x 0.8 71.2% 31.6% 5.7% 5.3x 0.6% 3.6% Raytheon RTN 13.5x 13.4x 12.8x 11.3x 6.4x 6.4x 6.4x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 14.6% 3.1x 2.8% 8.6%7.6x 7.9x 7.7x 1.6 37.1% 21.5% Booz Allen Hamilton * BAH 11.8x 11.5x 11.5x 14.6x 39.9%-- -- -- 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x N/A 11.0% 11.6x 2.0% 15.7%8.7x 7.8x 7.5x -5.3 85.5% Exelis XLS 7.8x 10.3x 9.9x 9.1x 8.6x N/A 0.4x 0.5x 0.5x 3.4x 2.9x 2.4% 12.8%4.1x 4.1x 3.6 39.0% 29.4% 20.6%
  • 41. Companies Mentioned (Price as of 14-Oct-2013) AAR (AIR.N, $27.79) Alliant Techsystems Inc. (ATK.N, $101.55) BAE Systems (BAES.L, 443.8p) BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV.OQ, $76.78) Boeing (BA.N, $119.46) Bombardier Inc (SVS) (BBDb.TO, C$4.97) Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH.N, $18.96) CACI International, Inc. (CACI.N, $68.37) EADS (EAD.PA, €48.92) Esterline Technologies (ESL.N, $79.47) Exelis (XLS.N, $15.6) General Dynamics Corporation (GD.N, $87.81) Heico Corp (HEI.N, $66.72) Hexcel Corporation (HXL.N, $40.08) Honeywell International Inc. (HON.N, $85.98) Huntington Ingalls (HII.N, $71.3) L-3 Communications (LLL.N, $94.98) Leidos (LDOS.N, $46.27) Lockheed Martin (LMT.N, $127.5) MTU Aero Engines (MTXGn.DE, €70.4) ManTech International Corp. (MANT.OQ, $29.05) Meggitt (MGGT.L, 541.0p) Moby Oil & Gas (MOG.AX, A$0.005) Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC.N, $98.81) Precision Castparts (PCP.N, $241.51) Raytheon Company (RTN.N, $76.38) Rockwell Collins, Inc. (COL.N, $68.92) Rolls-Royce (RR.L, 1125.0p) Safran (SAF.PA, €45.95) Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N, $24.71) Textron (TXT.N, $27.29) TransDigm (TDG.N, $140.5) Triumph Group Inc (TGI.N, $71.05) United Technologies Corp (UTX.N, $106.9) Wesco Air Hldg (WAIR.N, $19.76) Woodward Inc (WWD.OQ, $42.07) Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures I, Robert Spingarn, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Australia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark. 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Please refer to the firm's disclosure website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in the target price method and risk sections. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names The subject company (ESL.N, LMT.N, HON.N, UTX.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, HXL.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N, AIR.N, BA.N, COL.N, GD.N, HEI.N, HII.N, SPR.N, TXT.N) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (RTN.N, NOC.N, BAH.N, TDG.N, BA.N, GD.N, HII.N, SPR.N) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (LMT.N, HON.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, BEAV.OQ, BA.N, TXT.N) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (RTN.N, NOC.N, TDG.N, BA.N, GD.N, HII.N) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (RTN.N, NOC.N, BAH.N, TDG.N, BA.N, GD.N, HII.N, SPR.N) within the past 12 months Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (ESL.N, LMT.N, HON.N, UTX.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, HXL.N, PCP.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, MANT.OQ, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N, AIR.N, BA.N, COL.N, GD.N, HEI.N, HII.N, SPR.N) within the next 3 months. 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Credit Suisse has a material conflict of interest with the subject company (SAI). As of the date of this report, an analyst involved in the preparation of this report has the following material conflict of interest with the subject company (SAI). An analyst or a member of the analyst's household has a long position in the common stock of SAIC (SAI). Important Regional Disclosures Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report. The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (ESL.N, LMT.N, WWD.OQ, HON.N, UTX.N, RTN.N, NOC.N, HXL.N, PCP.N, XLS.N, CACI.N, MANT.OQ, BAH.N, TGI.N, ATK.N, TDG.N, BEAV.OQ, LLL.N, BA.N, BBDb.TO, COL.N, GD.N, HEI.N, HII.N, SPR.N, TXT.N, LDOS.N) within the past 12 months Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS- -Subordinate Voting Shares. Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report. 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