Handling Risk and Change
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Life is change. However, we all respond differently to risk and change. This sermon looks at the studies on people's responses to the adoption of new technologies and notes how similar our responses are to risk and change. We then look at a variety of biblical characters who show these characteristics of the risk-taker, the pioneer, the early and late majority and the last adopters of new ideas. Understanding one another helps us to grow in our grace for those whose responses are different than our own.
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Handling Risk and Change
- 2. Jim Rohn We must risk going too far to discover just how far we can go.
- 3. Frank Scully Why not go out on a limb? Isn’t that where the fruit is?
- 4. John A. Shedd A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for.
- 7. Pioneering Paul & Patty Risk- Taking Rick & Rebecca Rob & Ruth Resistant Hesitant Hank & Harriet Fall-in Line Fred & Flo
- 9. Numbers 13:30 But Caleb quieted the people before Moses and said, “Let us go up at once and occupy it, for we are well able to overcome it.”
- 10. Joshua 14 10 And now, behold, the LORD has kept me alive, just as he said, these forty-five years since the time that the LORD spoke this word to Moses, while Israel walked in the wilderness. And now, behold, I am this day eighty-five years old.
- 11. Joshua 14 11 I am still as strong today as I was in the day that Moses sent me; my strength now is as my strength was then, for war and for going and coming.
- 12. Joshua 14 12 So now give me this hill country of which the LORD spoke on that day, for you heard on that day how the Anakim were there, with great fortified cities. It may be that the LORD will be with me, and I shall drive them out just as the LORD said.”
- 13. Pioneering Paul & Patty Risk- Taking Rick & Rebecca Rob & Ruth Resistant Hesitant Hank & Harriet Fall-in Line Fred & Flo
- 14. Pioneering Paul
- 15. Romans 15 17 In Christ Jesus, then, I have reason to be proud of my work for God. 18 For I will not venture to speak of anything except what Christ has accomplished through me to bring the Gentiles to obedience—by word and deed,
- 16. Romans 15 19 by the power of signs and wonders, by the power of the Spirit of God—so that from Jerusalem and all the way around to Illyricum I have fulfilled the ministry of the gospel of Christ;
- 17. Romans 15 20 and thus I make it my ambition to preach the gospel, not where Christ has already been named, lest I build on someone else's foundation,
- 18. Romans 15 21 but as it is written, “Those who have never been told of him will see, and those who have never heard will understand.”
- 19. Pioneering Paul & Patty Risk- Taking Rick & Rebecca Rob & Ruth Resistant Hesitant Hank & Harriet Fall-in Line Fred & Flo
- 21. Matthew 14:28 And Peter answered him, “Lord, if it is you, command me to come to you on the water.”
- 22. John 6 66After this many of his disciples turned back and no longer walked with him. 67So Jesus said to the Twelve, “Do you want to go away as well?”
- 23. John 6 68Simon Peter answered him, “Lord, to whom shall we go? You have the words of eternal life, 69and we have believed, and have come to know, that you are the Holy One of God.”
- 24. Pioneering Paul & Patty Risk- Taking Rick & Rebecca Rob & Ruth Resistant Hesitant Hank & Harriet Fall-in Line Fred & Flo
- 25. Jesus’ Brothers
- 26. Mark 3 21And when his family heard it, they went out to seize him, for they were saying, “He is out of his mind.”
- 27. John 7 3 So his brothers said to him, “Leave here and go to Judea, that your disciples also may see the works you are doing. 4 For no one works in secret if he seeks to be known openly. If you do these things, show yourself to the world.” 5 For not even his brothers believed in him.
- 28. Pioneering Paul & Patty Risk- Taking Rick & Rebecca Rob & Ruth Resistant Hesitant Hank & Harriet Fall-in Line Fred & Flo
- 30. Lot
- 31. Genesis 19 15 As morning dawned, the angels urged Lot, saying, “Up! Take your wife and your two daughters who are here, lest you be swept away in the punishment of the city.”
- 32. Genesis 19 16 But he lingered. So the men seized him and his wife and his two daughters by the hand, the LORD being merciful to him, and they brought him out and set him outside the city.
- 34. Acts 7 51You stiff-necked people with uncircumcised hearts and ears! You always resist the Holy Spirit, just as your fathers did.
- 35. Acts 7 52Which of the prophets did your fathers fail to persecute? They even killed those who foretold the coming of the Righteous One. And now you are His betrayers and murderers—
- 36. Some Hard Questions Where are you on the Risk Meter? What is your tolerance for risk?
- 37. Some Hard Questions Where is GEFC on the Risk Meter? What is our tolerance for risk?
- 38. Some Hard Questions Which way are you pushing the dial?
- 39. Some Hard Questions Which way should we push the dial if our goal is to grow?
Editor's Notes
- Jim Rohn We must risk going too far to discover just how far we can go.
- Frank Scully Why not go out on a limb? Isn’t that where the fruit is?
- John A. Shedd A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for.
- These are very inspiring quotes. However, the truth of the matter is that we all have a different tolerance for risk. It’s hard to say where it stems from. In part, our risk tolerance flows out of our personality. But it’s not entirely a personality thing. Our environment and experience is a big part of our capacity to take risks. For example, if you grew up poor or experienced a major setback in life, your tolerance for risk might be very low. You have no taste for the red zone of high risk. On the other hand, some of us find risk exhilarating. They are the people who believe that the more chance there is of stubbing your toe, the more chance you have of stepping into success.
- There has been considerable research concerning how people respond to technological innovations. Innovators are a very small group. They are the 2% who actually invent the fun stuff we use like smartphones, iPads, Facebook, Netflix, etc. The Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Elon Musk would be examples of Innovators. Then there are the Early Adopters. These are the visionaries. They see the usefulness of these products quickly. They buy in as soon as it is possible and begin using the gadgets and gizmos in creative ways that not even the innovators anticipated. Yet no technology survives with just the innovators and the early adopters. You need to get the majority on board, and the majority is split in two pieces, an early majority and a late majority. The Early Majority are very pragmatic. Once they see that the device is useful, they’re in. The late majority are more conservative in nature. They waited a long time to buy a cellphone and may still be using a flip phone with no data. They are not impossible to win over, but neither are they easy. Then, the last group are the Laggards. They are highly skeptical. They are not just resistant to new innovation, they push back hard. Some will acquiesce to change if the buy in is almost universal. Many will never get on board. They are change averse.
- What has been fascinating are all the newer studies that are suggesting that the bell curve developed to describe people’s buy in to new tech may actually be applicable to the buy in to new ideas. I think we all fit into this chart. Furthermore, I think that we can see people in the Bible who fit into each of their categories. That is what we are going to spend time with this morning… studying several examples of biblical characters with differing levels of risk tolerance and learning from their examples, both good and bad. Some of you are like Risk-Taking Rick and Rebecca. You are out ahead of the pack. You live in a world of big ideas, but you’re not just a dreamer of dreams… you are all about action. Risk-Taking Rick and Rebecca deal with a lot of frustration with the people around them. They often feel held back by those around them. Or they feel like the Hank & Harriets and the Rob & Ruths are dead weight. So you will not always find tact and diplomacy at the far left side of this chart. Rick and Rebecca can be more than a bit impatient.
- Perhaps one of the best examples of the risk-taker in the Bible is Caleb. Caleb stands out from the crowd. You may remember what happened at Kadesh Barnea overlooking the promised land. Moses sent out twelve spies to spy out the land. They assessed the suitability of the land and the strength of the inhabitants and then reported back. All agreed that the land was exactly as God had said, a land flowing with milk and honey. But 10 of the spies caused Israel to shrink back. They said that the inhabitants were fierce, the cities were walled and fortified and that some of the warriors of that land were literally giants. Only Joshua and Caleb trusted God for victory. Listen to Caleb’s words:
- Numbers 13:30 But Caleb quieted the people before Moses and said, “Let us go up at once and occupy it, for we are well able to overcome it.” Caleb was not daunted by the numerical strength of the Amalekites or the physical prowess of the descendants of Anak… the giants. Caleb trusted God’s promises despite all the obvious obstacles before him. He did his best to quiet the people, but he and Joshua stood alone. In chapter 14 they plead with the people:
- 10 And now, behold, the Lord has kept me alive, just as he said, these forty-five years since the time that the Lord spoke this word to Moses, while Israel walked in the wilderness. And now, behold, I am this day eighty-five years old.
- 11 I am still as strong today as I was in the day that Moses sent me; my strength now is as my strength was then, for war and for going and coming.
- 12 So now give me this hill country of which the Lord spoke on that day, for you heard on that day how the Anakim were there, with great fortified cities. It may be that the Lord will be with me, and I shall drive them out just as the Lord said.” In chapter 15 Caleb does exactly what he said he would. He drives out 3 giants and the warriors with them and conquers the hill country. Risk-Takers can be wreckless, but sometimes they are like Caleb, faith-filled and fearless. We need risk-takers in our churches.
- In our chart of adopters to change we also met Pioneering Paul and Patty. Risk-Takers often run ahead. But this icon perfectly depicts the Pioneering spirit. Notice how one hand points the way, but the other hand is motioning “Follow Me.” Pioneers tend to be the strongest leaders. They aren’t typically the scouts… they’re the people who rally the forces. When you look behind them you see a train of people and a legacy of influence.
- Part of the definition of a pioneer is that they first enter or settle a region thus opening it up for development by others. By this definition, Paul is the quintessential pioneer. He opened up new territory on his three missionary journeys. Even on his journey to Rome he was breaking new ground.
- Romans 15 17 In Christ Jesus, then, I have reason to be proud of my work for God. 18 For I will not venture to speak of anything except what Christ has accomplished through me to bring the Gentiles to obedience—by word and deed,
- 19 by the power of signs and wonders, by the power of the Spirit of God—so that from Jerusalem and all the way around to Illyricum I have fulfilled the ministry of the gospel of Christ;
- 20 and thus I make it my ambition to preach the gospel, not where Christ has already been named, lest I build on someone else's foundation,
- 21 but as it is written, “Those who have never been told of him will see, and those who have never heard will understand.”
- Let’s look at another group responding to new ideas or change… Fall-in-Line Fred and Flow. Notice that up to this point we have been looking at less than one fifth of people. Only around 16% are innovative leaders or pioneers. This third group brings us to the brink of a majority. The purple icon tells the story well. Fred and Flo are not likely to lead the way… but they are actively looking for a leader to follow. Fred and Flo are extremely valuable in any group. No organization, including a church, can function with an army of leaders. There is a reason that the Innovators and Opinion Leaders are a minority… someone need to do the following and labor.
- When I think of the Early Adopter or Early Majority I think of Peter. We tend to think of Peter as a leader, being the lead personality of the band of Apostles. But I see Peter prior to Pentecost as part of the Early Majority, an out front follower. I think we see evidence of this in the moment where Peter sees Jesus walking on the water. The Risk Taker may have simply jumped right in… There wasn’t a true risk-taker on the boat. A Pioneer may have rallied everyone to the edge of the boat and organized a walk-on-the-water expedition. There doesn’t seem to have been a pioneer on the boat either. That may be why Jesus ultimately adds Paul to the Apostolic Team. But look at Peter in Matthew 14:28:
- Matthew 14:28 And Peter answered him, “Lord, if it is you, command me to come to you on the water.” Do you see Peter, gathered on the edge… ready to leap… looking for an invitation… bid me come. Peter is often the first to follow. Shortly after walking on the water with Jesus, Jesus makes a saying that many couldn’t accept, that He was God’s Manna, God’s bread come down from Heaven. When he said that His followers must eat His flesh, many walked away. But Peter proves the tenacity of the early majority.
- John 6 68Simon Peter answered him, “Lord, to whom shall we go? You have the words of eternal life, 69and we have believed, and have come to know, that you are the Holy One of God.” The great thing about the early majority is that they buy into vision with eagerness, and once they’re in… their in with both feet. In a church, if folks are elected to their positions, you will find every variety of person. However, on teams where a leader is free to appoint people, you will find a disproportionate number of people like Peter. The skeptical will often say of a leader that he is surrounding himself with “yes-men and yes-women.” There is a real danger here. However, I believe that you find so many Peters in the pack of chosen laypeople for another reason. They are so low maintenance.
- Let’s look at another group responding to new ideas or change… Hesitant Hank & Harriet. Hank and Harriet are from Missouri… the “Show Me” state. They are often mislabeled and misunderstood by leadership as being a problem. But these are not rebellious people. They tend to be very careful and thoughtful people. They are not determined to kill every idea, but they are determined to do what they can to make sure that ideas are better. The purple icon with the folded arms captures their spirit. Hank & Harriet are initially closed to a new idea, until it is carefully vetted. A soft sell doesn’t work with Hank & Harriet… you better bring you’re “A Game”. Sometimes Hank and Harriet slow the process too much. Some ideas need to be acted upon quickly or the opportunity is lost. If there is a hard and short deadline, Hank & Harriet may prevent you from meeting that deadline. They have a speed limit and the closer they are to the “Last Adopter” part of this bell curve, the more resistance they will offer. There is one critical fact that we dare not miss. It is the conservative Late Majority that takes you past 50 %. No idea can gain traction and lasting support without buy-in from some within the Late Majority. So any change strategy that doesn’t include Hank & Harriet will fail.
- By Jesus’ brothers I am not referring to His disciples, but rather the other sons of Mary and Joseph. It is clear in the gospels that Jesus’ home town was slow in getting on board. Jesus actually said that Sodom and Gomorrah were less culpable than his home town and the surrounding towns. He said that a prophet is without honor in his home town. But how about Jesus’ family? There are two texts which give us a read on the openness of Jesus’ family to His Ministry.
- The first is an odd verse indeed. It is unique to Mark’s gospel, but there is no textual variant to suggest that this is a later scribal addition. Mark 3:21 is authentically a part of Mark’s gospel. It says: 21And when his family heard it, they went out to seize him, for they were saying, “He is out of his mind.” In order to properly interpret this verse you need to understand what it is that Jesus’ family heard. The immediate context does not establish the connection. It is not the healing of the masses in Galilee and Judea that explains this concern. Nor is it the calling of disciples. Clearly Jesus was a qualified rabbi. The beginning of chapter 3 helps us unlock this verse. In the opening verses we see that Jesus heals a man with a withered hand. That was not crazy. However, he did so on the Sabbath despite his knowledge of how this would stir the Pharisees and the Herodians pots. I don’t think Mary and Jesus’ brothers are the ones saying “He’s out of His mind” although its possible. I think this was what the Pharisees and Herodians were saying. Jesus had succeeded in offending two of the most powerful Jewish groups. These groups usually hated one another, but with regard to Jesus, they were on the same page… He’s nuts and must be killed. Mary and Jesus’ brothers think that Jesus needs rescuing. This certainly shows us that they did not fully understand who he was. But it is John 7 that answers the faith question.
- In verses 3 through 7 we read: 3 So his brothers said to him, “Leave here and go to Judea, that your disciples also may see the works you are doing. 4 For no one works in secret if he seeks to be known openly. If you do these things, show yourself to the world.” 5 For not even his brothers believed in him. Ultimately, we know that Jesus’ brothers, James and Jude, come to faith in Jesus. They write two of our New Testament epistles. We see no indication that they come to faith early on. It is probably Jesus’ resurrection that fully convinces them. In the wake of His rising from the dead, there was no reasonable denying that He was who He said He was… God’s Son. James and Jude remind us that although the Late Majority is rather averse to risk or new ideas, that doesn’t mean they can’t get on the train. In fact, there is one thing that many of the risk-takers, pioneers, early majority and late majority have in common… they died for their faith in Jesus. All had the capacity for deep commitment. We do well to remember this in the world of church leadership and governance. The James and Judes are worth the effort. They can, in time, become inspirational and loyal supporters. They have a capacity for risk… just not early risk. They often provide a church with a needed level of stability. Not every idea is a good idea. Not every change is desirable or best. Risk-takers and Pioneers can miss important red flags in their rush to get to the finish line. However, there is one more group, and they can be a problem.
- Our last couple to consider are Resistant Rob & Ruth. Optimistically, they are referred to as Last Adopters. Pessimistically, they are called Non-Adopters. This group comprises 16% of the populace. They are change averse. At the far right of this scale are people who are incapable of tolerating change or assuming risk. Rob and Ruth find security in sameness. They also highly value safety and truly believe that their resistance protects the larger body. Their defining characteristic is skepticism. This often expresses itself in an attitude of mistrust of leaders… especially risk takers and pioneers. We have a tendency to make two assumptions… that Rob & Ruth are old and that Rob & Ruth are long-tenured. This might be a common scenario, but it is not entirely accurate. Rob & Ruth may be in their 20s and relatively new to the church. However, Rob & Ruth at times have a glaring blind spot captured in this cartoon.
- One of the men at this business meeting says: We’ve considered every potential risk except the risks of avoiding all risks. He may be the boss, or just part of the team, but he is spot on. There is risk in action. But there is also risk in inaction. This is the lesson of the parable of the talents. The servant who buried his master’s money rather than investing it avoided all risk. He explained his decision in light of his assessment of his master’s character:
- But how about a real flesh and blood example of the Last Adopters. It would be easy to make a mistake here. For example, we could suggest that Jonah is such a person. It took being swallowed by a great fish for Jonah to get with God’s program. However, his resistance to God’s call to Nineveh is more rooted in his hatred for the Assyrians than his resistance to God’s idea. Jonah may have gone many places with great eagerness… just not Nineveh. Last Adopters are not determined by a single or few instances of resistance. Rather, we look for a pattern of resistance. And it is important that we see that Last Adopters have a capacity to assume risk and embrace change. It’s rare, but possible. I think Lot may be a good example of a Last Adopter. It took an angel and a threat of imminent destruction to get Lot out of Sodom and Gommorah.
- That is exactly what Stephen said concerning the Jewish leaders on the Sanhedrin, or Jewish ruling council who tried and condemned Jesus. Not only was their act of resistance a capitol crime… it was part of a long series of such decisions. In Acts 7 he said:
- Acts 7 51You stiff-necked people with uncircumcised hearts and ears! You always resist the Holy Spirit, just as your fathers did.
- 52Which of the prophets did your fathers fail to persecute? They even killed those who foretold the coming of the Righteous One. And now you are His betrayers and murderers— Here we see a pattern of continual resistance towards God in the name of God which has persisted for generations. It is one of the most extreme examples of change aversion leading to spiritual antagonism towards the things of God. I think it is very important that we not lay this charge easily upon the shoulders of brothers and sisters with who we disagree. This is much more than difference of opinion. This is a spirit of rebellion.