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US Election 2016
10 Swing States
Google v Results
11.11.2016
US Search Volume – last 30 days
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Actual 47.7% / 47.5% - Clinton wins!
Source: Google Trends
FBI Investigation ReopensThird TV Debate
Ten Swing States
Ohio – last 30 days
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 44% / 52% - Trump wins!
Source: Google Trends
Florida – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 48% / 49% - Trump wins!
Virginia – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 50% / 45% - Clinton wins!
Iowa – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 42% / 52% - Trump wins!
Wisconsin – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 47% / 48% - Trump wins!
Colorado – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 47% / 45% - Clinton wins!
Nevada – last 30 days
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 48% / 46% - Clinton wins!
New Hampshire– last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 47% / 47% - Not called yet
North Carolina – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Trump ahead
Actual 47% / 51% - Trump wins!
Arizona – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Trump ahead
Actual 45% / 50% - Trump wins!
Google’s Verdict
Trump
Google versus Polls
State Polls Google
Ohio Fail Correct
Florida Fail Correct
Virginia Correct Fail
Iowa Fail Correct
Wisconsin Fail Correct
Colorado Correct Fail
Nevada Correct Fail
New Hampshire N / A N / A
North Carolina Correct Correct
Arizona Correct Correct
Total 5 6
Conclusions
 Google search traffic predicted the outcome of
8/9 swing states in 2012 – 89% but just 6/9 in 2016 - 67%
 In the swing states the fastest rising searches were –
Clinton with FBI, Investigation, Scandal & Wikileaks
Trump with Can Win, Rally, Accusers, Iraq & Michael Moore
 Clinton’s campaign was all about Together / Stronger yet the searches were quite
negative while the reverse is true of Trump where his rhetoric was divisive & negative yet
the searches were more positive – he definitely won in the search space in these states
 Nationally Natasha Stoyoff & Jessica Leeds were highly searched with Trump but not in
the swing states except Virginia...which may explain why it went Clinton and the others
didn’t

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Google Trends versus US Election 2016

  • 1. US Election 2016 10 Swing States Google v Results 11.11.2016
  • 2. US Search Volume – last 30 days Google Prediction - Trump wins! Actual 47.7% / 47.5% - Clinton wins! Source: Google Trends FBI Investigation ReopensThird TV Debate
  • 4. Ohio – last 30 days Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 44% / 52% - Trump wins! Source: Google Trends
  • 5. Florida – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 48% / 49% - Trump wins!
  • 6. Virginia – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 50% / 45% - Clinton wins!
  • 7. Iowa – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 42% / 52% - Trump wins!
  • 8. Wisconsin – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 47% / 48% - Trump wins!
  • 9. Colorado – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 47% / 45% - Clinton wins!
  • 10. Nevada – last 30 days Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 48% / 46% - Clinton wins!
  • 11. New Hampshire– last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 47% / 47% - Not called yet
  • 12. North Carolina – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Trump ahead Actual 47% / 51% - Trump wins!
  • 13. Arizona – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Trump ahead Actual 45% / 50% - Trump wins!
  • 15. Trump
  • 16. Google versus Polls State Polls Google Ohio Fail Correct Florida Fail Correct Virginia Correct Fail Iowa Fail Correct Wisconsin Fail Correct Colorado Correct Fail Nevada Correct Fail New Hampshire N / A N / A North Carolina Correct Correct Arizona Correct Correct Total 5 6
  • 17. Conclusions  Google search traffic predicted the outcome of 8/9 swing states in 2012 – 89% but just 6/9 in 2016 - 67%  In the swing states the fastest rising searches were – Clinton with FBI, Investigation, Scandal & Wikileaks Trump with Can Win, Rally, Accusers, Iraq & Michael Moore  Clinton’s campaign was all about Together / Stronger yet the searches were quite negative while the reverse is true of Trump where his rhetoric was divisive & negative yet the searches were more positive – he definitely won in the search space in these states  Nationally Natasha Stoyoff & Jessica Leeds were highly searched with Trump but not in the swing states except Virginia...which may explain why it went Clinton and the others didn’t