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Geoinvesting.com 1
Microcap Strategies
GeoInvesting concentrates on small capitalization stocks, mainly microcaps. We generate stock ideas on which
you can choose to allocate your capital according to your management style. We also organize ideas into different
themed portfolios. While a large part of our strategy focuses on identifying companies entering inflection points
for short term appreciation, many go on to perform surprisingly well over the long because of solid fundamentals.
Based on our time horizons, it’s reasonable that you can develop your own strategy in conjunction with our
research and portfolios.
We populate these portfolios from strategies that fall into either the “fundamental” or “special situation” category.
Portfolios
Buy on
Pullback
Run to One
(r21)
Takeover
Candidate
Tier 1 OTC Multibagger
Strategies
Fundamental
GARP Contrarian
Special
Situations
M&A Turnaround
Non-Dilutive
Offerings
Activism
Geoinvesting.com 2
The core of our strategies is based on fundamentals.
As opposed to some other microcap investors, we put the bulk of our emphasis on companies that are profitable (or
nearing profitability) and avoid companies with bad capital structures and a near term need to raise capital under
adverse conditions. We do not exclude any industries by principal, but rather we believe there are areas where we
have no differential edge, which we avoid. Some examples of these scenarios include pre-revenue biotech startups,
exploration stage energy companies, and most commodity price-dependent businesses. Our investments are
generally concentrated in North America.
Special situations are ideas based more on event-driven catalysts and qualitative analysis. These are usually near
term in nature and are opportunities that tend to arise on short notice. Our special situations research not only
identifies great one-off opportunities, but feeds ideas into our fundamental ideas funnel since that is our natural
focus.
Model Portfolios
We create model portfolios that each follow a distinct theme and will generally include stocks from our core
strategies. The investment time horizon is usually between 3 months to 3 to 5 years but might be shorter or longer
dependent on the situation. The performance of our mock portfolios has been outstanding, especially our “Buy on
Pullback” and “Run to One” (r21) portfolios. We can design mock portfolios a la cart.
We are constantly on the search for stocks that react negatively, or have muted reactions, to good news. These
types of overreactions or underreactions are often the result of market gyrations or the inability of investors to
digest the scope of a particular event. “Buy on Pullback” model portfolios are designed to take advantage of these
mispricing scenarios.
Portfolio Initiated Status # of Stocks Return Peak Return
Buy on Pullback #1 Jan-16 6/16/2018 4 16.99% 36.15%
Buy on Pullback #2 Jun-16 10/16/2018 5 19.16% 87.76%
Buy on Pullback #3 Oct-16 Ongoing 5 69.43% 87.76%
Buy on Pullback #4 Mar-17 1/18/2018 4 44.43% 53.18%
Buy on Pullback #5 Jun-17 Ongoing 5 17.30% 30.13%
Buy on Pullback #6 Sep-17 Ongoing 5 27.40% 42.06%
Run-to-One Sep-13 Ongoing 19 205.32% 379.28%
Multi-Bagger May-17 Ongoing 7 14.19% 89.44%
Geoinvesting.com 3
Case Studies
Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)
The bread and butter of Geo’s long strategy has three pillars:
(1) Buying growing companies at a reasonable price (GARP), which are
(2) Nearing an inflection point,
(3) Where we have differential insights that are not fully digested by the
market
We call acting on this insight information arbitrage (InfoArb).
Some of our favorite inflection points that we look for include:
➢ Reduced leverage
➢ Margin expansion
➢ New product cycle
➢ Finding new revenue for a mature legacy product
➢ More wallet-share from current customers
➢ Acquisitions
➢ Reduced customer concentration
➢ New management
➢ Activists enter the picture
Geoinvesting.com 4
Case Study: NV5 Global Inc
Finding a growing profitable company led by great management early
Ticker NASDAQ: NVEE Price at Initiation $ 13.00 Time Horizon 5 Months
Price Exit $ 21.38 Return 64.46%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ With NV5 Holdings, we found a management team that had rapidly built the company from a start-up in
2009 to a growing, highly profitable, and formidable firm that provided professional and technical
engineering, as well as consulting solutions, to public and private sector clients in the infrastructure, energy,
construction, real estate and environmental markets.
➢ Management worked together in the past to successfully build and grow companies.
➢ We believed that cash from a warrant redemption would be put to good use as management continued to
pursue accretive acquisitions while mitigating risk through customer diversification.
➢ Our price target of around $21.00 did not take into account future acquisitions that we believed NVEE would
complete.
➢ Key to our insights was commentary in an almost unattended conference call. After that we reached out to
management, built a relationship with CEO Dickerson Wright, and even interviewed him on a public radio
channel targeted at investors.
➢ We locked in an over 60% gain between Dec. 15 2014 and May 19, 2015.
➢ The stock continued to perform as we expected, building on a proven growth concept that we believe still
has runway. We follow the company closely, maintain our relationship with management, and trade in this
stock profitably to this day.
Geoinvesting.com 5
Case Study: GTT Communications
Information Arbitrage around management changes and an operational inflection point
Ticker NYSE: GTT Price at Initiation $ 4.25 Time Horizon 14 Months
Price Exit $ 12.98 Return 205.41%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ GTT Communications, Inc. provides cloud networking services to multinational enterprises, carriers, and
government customers worldwide.
➢ We covered GTT because we did not think investors understood how much value that a new management
team and a pending acquisition would bring to the company.
➢ We also believed that investors needed to look past the losses the company was reporting at the time, since
GTT’s business model centered on high recurring revenues, “sticky” customer relationships, and filling a
void across domestic and global cloud networks.
➢ Our analysis justified a short-term a price target of $13.50, which the stock achieved within 7 months after
Geo publishing research.
Geoinvesting.com 6
Turnaround | Restructure | r21
Our favorite turnaround opportunities in the microcap space often involve companies with a substantial revenue
base where investors have lost the faith in strong management teams due to lack of profitability and the perpetual
need for capital injections. We know that sometimes these businesses can be viable and profitable on a smaller
scale. Looking for inflection points in a turnaround has proven to be a profitable strategy time and again, as
exemplified by our research on Zynex Inc (OTCQB:ZYXI) and many others. Some useful indicators that hint at a
successful turnaround are insider buying and the engagement of a new leadership team. A change in the business
model can sometimes cause a company to turn its stock price around, as seen in software companies that
successfully transition from lumpy licensing revenues to a cloud-based model with smoother more recurring sales.
Case Study: Zynex, Inc.
Successful turnaround taking hold, stock gains momentum after settling credit situation
Ticker OTCQB:ZYXI Price at Initiation $ 0.40 Current Return 925.00%
Price Exit Still Holding, Current Price $ 4.10
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ Zynex, Inc is a medical technology company specializing in the manufacture and sale of non-invasive medical
devices for pain management, stroke rehabilitation, cardiac monitoring and neurological diagnostics. The
company’s products are fully developed, FDA cleared, and have been commercially sold for years.
➢ We found the company in early June 2017. Strong earnings momentum, cost cutting initiatives that were
ahead of schedule, improved collection efficiency and a debt restructuring intrigued us. Our EPS estimate
for 2017 implied substantial upside. We understood the company had problems with working capital
management and creditors and that this was a turnaround in the making.
➢ In mid-July, Zynex announced a resolution to its credit situation, along with increased expectations for 2017
and beyond.
➢ The stock is currently trading at roughly 10 times the price is was first found.
Geoinvesting.com 7
M&A
Mergers in the small and microcap space happen frequently, but often in waves and in particular industries that are
in consolidation. The key is to identify the shift in M&A activity and locate attractive targets early. Over 40 companies
we owned were acquired following our bullish coverage. GeoInvesting was, for example, able to position early during
the consolidation of SaaS companies between 2014 and 2016, and we identified companies such VOCS, MKTG,
TNGO, and EOPN that were consequentially acquired at attractive premiums.
Case Study: Vocus Inc
Positive commentary and initiation of guidance, company meets criteria for SaaS buyout
target
Ticker NASDAQ: VOCS Price at Initiation $ 10.67 Time Horizon 11 Months
Price Exit $ 18.00 Return 68.70%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ Vocus Inc was a cloud-based marketing automation service provider.
➢ We noticed the company after we discovered positive commentary in its quarterly earnings call. VOCS
started issuing guidance for the first time.
➢ A Rights Offering with heavy insider participation gave us a hint that a transaction could be on the horizon.
The company met all our standards for a tier 1 SaaS acquisition target.
➢ Less than 12 months after we initiated our coverage, Vocus was bought out at an attractive premium.
Geoinvesting.com 8
Activism
The microcap space has recently experienced a growth in shareholder activism, with many activists moving down
the market cap totem pole in their search for alpha. Smaller companies tend to have more room for operational,
financial, and governance optimization. Successful activist plays that we’ve highlighted include operational
turnarounds like GVP, or “facilitating” a corporate transaction such as the sale of GLDC.
Case Study: Golden Enterprises Inc
Activist shapes up Company for Sale
Ticker NASDAQ: GLDC Price at Initiation $ 6.00 Time Horizon 1 Months
Price Exit $ 12.00 Return 100.00%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ We found snack producer Golden Enterprises in mid-2014, but it really caught our attention in 2016 after
an activist investor filed a 13D in late 2015, pushing for a sale of the company.
➢ We found indications in SEC filings that the company’s declining revenue trend might reverse after
operational adjustments. This intel was not disclosed in press releases (InfoArb).
➢ Additionally, the terms of a partnership trust agreement among insiders, buried in SEC filings) helped shape
our opinion that the company would explore a sale.
➢ Only 4 months after our initial research, and 1 month after the publication of an important research note,
the company was acquired at $12.00 per share.
Geoinvesting.com 9
Case Study: Blue Bird Corp
Former SPAC with bogus take-over bid. Geo interviewed by Barron’s, where we publicly
opposed the transaction and called for $18 + per share in value.
Ticker NASDAQ: BLBD Price at Initiation $ 13.96 Time Horizon 9 Months
Price Exit $ 18.35 Return 31%
Ticker NASDAQ: BLBDW Price at Initiation $ 1.25 Time Horizon 18 Months
Price Exit $ 5.60 Return 350%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ Blue Bird is a school bus manufacturer that was founded in the 1930s. The company has been listed on the
NASDAQ as Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) since 2015 when PE firm Cerberus Capital took them
public while retaining a majority stake.
➢ Geo began following Blue Bird in early 2016 after Cerberus sold its 57% stake to another private equity
company, American Securities. Previous American Securities funds had preferred to take investments
private in order to have total control.
➢ In July, American Securities submitted a take-over offer at $13 per share. Our legal analysis of minority
shareholder rights under Delaware law concluded that the offer would not close without approval of an
independent committee and approval by the majority of minority shareholders. On July 27, 2016, we
published a research report as to why we did not think the takeover offer would close. We were right, and
on September 8, 2016 we re-iterated our analysis along with a legal analysis of minority shareholder rights
under Delaware law. In August, our analysis was featured in Barron’s.
➢ Our fundamental analysis identified the dramatic reduction in school bus manufacturers over the last
decade as a positive industry trend with the remaining players soon to extract more profits, similar to the
aviation industry. Blue Bird was well positioned to take advantage of an improving industry environment.
➢ As the takeover fell apart, BLBD shares fell further, making for an even more attractive entry point. In
January of 2017, Blue Bird announced it would develop a Zero Emission Vehicle supported by a $4.4mm
grant from the US Department of Energy with other entities assisting, for a total of $9mm+ of funds. Later,
Geo closed out its long position in the stock at $18.35 later closed out the warrant position at around $5.60.
Non-Dilutive Offerings
Geoinvesting.com 10
Small and microcap stocks sometimes have big legacy stockholders. Often times, PE funds that near their exit time
who wish to sell their stake through an underwriter in a non-dilutive secondary where no new shares are issued. The
seller often has a low cost-basis, the offering is generally big relative to the shares outstanding, and the emphasis is
on getting a deal done and making a clean exit. In other instances, microcaps that sell stock in secondaries to raise
growth capital will often fall hard. We cull out the companies that we think will see earnings accretion from new
capital or if proceeds are used to pay down debt, resulting in a cleaner balance sheet.
We observe big discounts in these offerings, but the stock will generally recover quickly after the overhang is gone
and the uncertainty about the big seller is removed or selling pressure abates, as recently observed in a model
portfolio holding BXC, up over 100% since August of 2016 (see case study below). BGSF and ORBK are additional
examples of accretive secondary offerings that were misunderstood by the market, where Geo was able to take
advantage of the situation. There is extra liquidity created around these events, which allows participants to trade
in and out of these situations with bigger investment amounts.
Geoinvesting.com 11
Case Study: Orbotech Ltd
Sizable secondary offering leads to weakness in stock, but is in reality accretive to earnings
Ticker NASDAQ: ORBK Offering Price $ 26.52 Time Horizon 1 Month
Offering Volume 3,850,000 Price Exit $ 28.82 Return 8.67%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ Orbotech is principally engaged in the design, development, manufacture, marketing and service of yield-
enhancing and production solutions for specialized applications in the supply chain of the electronics
industry.
➢ We initially found the company in 2015 after it increased its annual guidance. Our analysis indicated that
the company might finally turn profitable and we kept following the stock.
➢ In June 2016, the company announced a sizable secondary offering of 3.85m new shares. The stock trended
down quickly and ended up trading below the offering price.
➢ Our analysis showed that the company’s plan to deleverage the balance sheet would be immediately
accretive to earnings and we had a strong EPS outlook for the company. We initiated a position on weakness
in the stock around the time of the offering. We continue to trade profitably in the stock to this day.
Geoinvesting.com 12
Case Study: BlueLinx Holdings Inc
Major Legacy Shareholder sells Stake through Underwriter at Big Discount, Making for
Attractive Entry Point
Ticker NASDAQ: BXC Offering Price $ 7.00 Time Horizon 1 Month
Offering Volume 3,863,850 Current Price $ 8.90 Return 27.14%
*data as of 3/8/2018
➢ BlueLinx Holdings is a leading distributor of building and industrial products in the US.
➢ We started tracking the company in late 2016 as an asset sale put them ahead of schedule in their
restructuring efforts.
➢ During our due diligence process, we learned that Cerberus Capital was a long-time investor in the
company.
➢ Cerberus’s overhang in the stock suppressed the stock price, but we anticipated they would look for an exit
soon.
➢ In September 2017, we observed weakness in the stock, and anticipated that Cerberus would soon try to
sell its stake, because Cerberus’ fund that was invested in BXC was winding down.
➢ The shares were sold in a non-dilutive secondary offering through an underwriter, BTIG LLC, who offered
GeoInvesting to participate in the offering at $7.00 per share. No new shares were issued. Cerberus just
opted to sell its stake through an underwriter.
Not only was there an opportunity to get a great return on a sizable number of shares in a trade, but we also
believe opportunities like this can enable investors to build sizable positions in quality companies to hold longer
term. BXC stock never reached the offering level price of $7.00 in open market trading.

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GeoInvesting Strategies and Case Studies

  • 1. Geoinvesting.com 1 Microcap Strategies GeoInvesting concentrates on small capitalization stocks, mainly microcaps. We generate stock ideas on which you can choose to allocate your capital according to your management style. We also organize ideas into different themed portfolios. While a large part of our strategy focuses on identifying companies entering inflection points for short term appreciation, many go on to perform surprisingly well over the long because of solid fundamentals. Based on our time horizons, it’s reasonable that you can develop your own strategy in conjunction with our research and portfolios. We populate these portfolios from strategies that fall into either the “fundamental” or “special situation” category. Portfolios Buy on Pullback Run to One (r21) Takeover Candidate Tier 1 OTC Multibagger Strategies Fundamental GARP Contrarian Special Situations M&A Turnaround Non-Dilutive Offerings Activism
  • 2. Geoinvesting.com 2 The core of our strategies is based on fundamentals. As opposed to some other microcap investors, we put the bulk of our emphasis on companies that are profitable (or nearing profitability) and avoid companies with bad capital structures and a near term need to raise capital under adverse conditions. We do not exclude any industries by principal, but rather we believe there are areas where we have no differential edge, which we avoid. Some examples of these scenarios include pre-revenue biotech startups, exploration stage energy companies, and most commodity price-dependent businesses. Our investments are generally concentrated in North America. Special situations are ideas based more on event-driven catalysts and qualitative analysis. These are usually near term in nature and are opportunities that tend to arise on short notice. Our special situations research not only identifies great one-off opportunities, but feeds ideas into our fundamental ideas funnel since that is our natural focus. Model Portfolios We create model portfolios that each follow a distinct theme and will generally include stocks from our core strategies. The investment time horizon is usually between 3 months to 3 to 5 years but might be shorter or longer dependent on the situation. The performance of our mock portfolios has been outstanding, especially our “Buy on Pullback” and “Run to One” (r21) portfolios. We can design mock portfolios a la cart. We are constantly on the search for stocks that react negatively, or have muted reactions, to good news. These types of overreactions or underreactions are often the result of market gyrations or the inability of investors to digest the scope of a particular event. “Buy on Pullback” model portfolios are designed to take advantage of these mispricing scenarios. Portfolio Initiated Status # of Stocks Return Peak Return Buy on Pullback #1 Jan-16 6/16/2018 4 16.99% 36.15% Buy on Pullback #2 Jun-16 10/16/2018 5 19.16% 87.76% Buy on Pullback #3 Oct-16 Ongoing 5 69.43% 87.76% Buy on Pullback #4 Mar-17 1/18/2018 4 44.43% 53.18% Buy on Pullback #5 Jun-17 Ongoing 5 17.30% 30.13% Buy on Pullback #6 Sep-17 Ongoing 5 27.40% 42.06% Run-to-One Sep-13 Ongoing 19 205.32% 379.28% Multi-Bagger May-17 Ongoing 7 14.19% 89.44%
  • 3. Geoinvesting.com 3 Case Studies Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP) The bread and butter of Geo’s long strategy has three pillars: (1) Buying growing companies at a reasonable price (GARP), which are (2) Nearing an inflection point, (3) Where we have differential insights that are not fully digested by the market We call acting on this insight information arbitrage (InfoArb). Some of our favorite inflection points that we look for include: ➢ Reduced leverage ➢ Margin expansion ➢ New product cycle ➢ Finding new revenue for a mature legacy product ➢ More wallet-share from current customers ➢ Acquisitions ➢ Reduced customer concentration ➢ New management ➢ Activists enter the picture
  • 4. Geoinvesting.com 4 Case Study: NV5 Global Inc Finding a growing profitable company led by great management early Ticker NASDAQ: NVEE Price at Initiation $ 13.00 Time Horizon 5 Months Price Exit $ 21.38 Return 64.46% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ With NV5 Holdings, we found a management team that had rapidly built the company from a start-up in 2009 to a growing, highly profitable, and formidable firm that provided professional and technical engineering, as well as consulting solutions, to public and private sector clients in the infrastructure, energy, construction, real estate and environmental markets. ➢ Management worked together in the past to successfully build and grow companies. ➢ We believed that cash from a warrant redemption would be put to good use as management continued to pursue accretive acquisitions while mitigating risk through customer diversification. ➢ Our price target of around $21.00 did not take into account future acquisitions that we believed NVEE would complete. ➢ Key to our insights was commentary in an almost unattended conference call. After that we reached out to management, built a relationship with CEO Dickerson Wright, and even interviewed him on a public radio channel targeted at investors. ➢ We locked in an over 60% gain between Dec. 15 2014 and May 19, 2015. ➢ The stock continued to perform as we expected, building on a proven growth concept that we believe still has runway. We follow the company closely, maintain our relationship with management, and trade in this stock profitably to this day.
  • 5. Geoinvesting.com 5 Case Study: GTT Communications Information Arbitrage around management changes and an operational inflection point Ticker NYSE: GTT Price at Initiation $ 4.25 Time Horizon 14 Months Price Exit $ 12.98 Return 205.41% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ GTT Communications, Inc. provides cloud networking services to multinational enterprises, carriers, and government customers worldwide. ➢ We covered GTT because we did not think investors understood how much value that a new management team and a pending acquisition would bring to the company. ➢ We also believed that investors needed to look past the losses the company was reporting at the time, since GTT’s business model centered on high recurring revenues, “sticky” customer relationships, and filling a void across domestic and global cloud networks. ➢ Our analysis justified a short-term a price target of $13.50, which the stock achieved within 7 months after Geo publishing research.
  • 6. Geoinvesting.com 6 Turnaround | Restructure | r21 Our favorite turnaround opportunities in the microcap space often involve companies with a substantial revenue base where investors have lost the faith in strong management teams due to lack of profitability and the perpetual need for capital injections. We know that sometimes these businesses can be viable and profitable on a smaller scale. Looking for inflection points in a turnaround has proven to be a profitable strategy time and again, as exemplified by our research on Zynex Inc (OTCQB:ZYXI) and many others. Some useful indicators that hint at a successful turnaround are insider buying and the engagement of a new leadership team. A change in the business model can sometimes cause a company to turn its stock price around, as seen in software companies that successfully transition from lumpy licensing revenues to a cloud-based model with smoother more recurring sales. Case Study: Zynex, Inc. Successful turnaround taking hold, stock gains momentum after settling credit situation Ticker OTCQB:ZYXI Price at Initiation $ 0.40 Current Return 925.00% Price Exit Still Holding, Current Price $ 4.10 *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ Zynex, Inc is a medical technology company specializing in the manufacture and sale of non-invasive medical devices for pain management, stroke rehabilitation, cardiac monitoring and neurological diagnostics. The company’s products are fully developed, FDA cleared, and have been commercially sold for years. ➢ We found the company in early June 2017. Strong earnings momentum, cost cutting initiatives that were ahead of schedule, improved collection efficiency and a debt restructuring intrigued us. Our EPS estimate for 2017 implied substantial upside. We understood the company had problems with working capital management and creditors and that this was a turnaround in the making. ➢ In mid-July, Zynex announced a resolution to its credit situation, along with increased expectations for 2017 and beyond. ➢ The stock is currently trading at roughly 10 times the price is was first found.
  • 7. Geoinvesting.com 7 M&A Mergers in the small and microcap space happen frequently, but often in waves and in particular industries that are in consolidation. The key is to identify the shift in M&A activity and locate attractive targets early. Over 40 companies we owned were acquired following our bullish coverage. GeoInvesting was, for example, able to position early during the consolidation of SaaS companies between 2014 and 2016, and we identified companies such VOCS, MKTG, TNGO, and EOPN that were consequentially acquired at attractive premiums. Case Study: Vocus Inc Positive commentary and initiation of guidance, company meets criteria for SaaS buyout target Ticker NASDAQ: VOCS Price at Initiation $ 10.67 Time Horizon 11 Months Price Exit $ 18.00 Return 68.70% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ Vocus Inc was a cloud-based marketing automation service provider. ➢ We noticed the company after we discovered positive commentary in its quarterly earnings call. VOCS started issuing guidance for the first time. ➢ A Rights Offering with heavy insider participation gave us a hint that a transaction could be on the horizon. The company met all our standards for a tier 1 SaaS acquisition target. ➢ Less than 12 months after we initiated our coverage, Vocus was bought out at an attractive premium.
  • 8. Geoinvesting.com 8 Activism The microcap space has recently experienced a growth in shareholder activism, with many activists moving down the market cap totem pole in their search for alpha. Smaller companies tend to have more room for operational, financial, and governance optimization. Successful activist plays that we’ve highlighted include operational turnarounds like GVP, or “facilitating” a corporate transaction such as the sale of GLDC. Case Study: Golden Enterprises Inc Activist shapes up Company for Sale Ticker NASDAQ: GLDC Price at Initiation $ 6.00 Time Horizon 1 Months Price Exit $ 12.00 Return 100.00% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ We found snack producer Golden Enterprises in mid-2014, but it really caught our attention in 2016 after an activist investor filed a 13D in late 2015, pushing for a sale of the company. ➢ We found indications in SEC filings that the company’s declining revenue trend might reverse after operational adjustments. This intel was not disclosed in press releases (InfoArb). ➢ Additionally, the terms of a partnership trust agreement among insiders, buried in SEC filings) helped shape our opinion that the company would explore a sale. ➢ Only 4 months after our initial research, and 1 month after the publication of an important research note, the company was acquired at $12.00 per share.
  • 9. Geoinvesting.com 9 Case Study: Blue Bird Corp Former SPAC with bogus take-over bid. Geo interviewed by Barron’s, where we publicly opposed the transaction and called for $18 + per share in value. Ticker NASDAQ: BLBD Price at Initiation $ 13.96 Time Horizon 9 Months Price Exit $ 18.35 Return 31% Ticker NASDAQ: BLBDW Price at Initiation $ 1.25 Time Horizon 18 Months Price Exit $ 5.60 Return 350% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ Blue Bird is a school bus manufacturer that was founded in the 1930s. The company has been listed on the NASDAQ as Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) since 2015 when PE firm Cerberus Capital took them public while retaining a majority stake. ➢ Geo began following Blue Bird in early 2016 after Cerberus sold its 57% stake to another private equity company, American Securities. Previous American Securities funds had preferred to take investments private in order to have total control. ➢ In July, American Securities submitted a take-over offer at $13 per share. Our legal analysis of minority shareholder rights under Delaware law concluded that the offer would not close without approval of an independent committee and approval by the majority of minority shareholders. On July 27, 2016, we published a research report as to why we did not think the takeover offer would close. We were right, and on September 8, 2016 we re-iterated our analysis along with a legal analysis of minority shareholder rights under Delaware law. In August, our analysis was featured in Barron’s. ➢ Our fundamental analysis identified the dramatic reduction in school bus manufacturers over the last decade as a positive industry trend with the remaining players soon to extract more profits, similar to the aviation industry. Blue Bird was well positioned to take advantage of an improving industry environment. ➢ As the takeover fell apart, BLBD shares fell further, making for an even more attractive entry point. In January of 2017, Blue Bird announced it would develop a Zero Emission Vehicle supported by a $4.4mm grant from the US Department of Energy with other entities assisting, for a total of $9mm+ of funds. Later, Geo closed out its long position in the stock at $18.35 later closed out the warrant position at around $5.60. Non-Dilutive Offerings
  • 10. Geoinvesting.com 10 Small and microcap stocks sometimes have big legacy stockholders. Often times, PE funds that near their exit time who wish to sell their stake through an underwriter in a non-dilutive secondary where no new shares are issued. The seller often has a low cost-basis, the offering is generally big relative to the shares outstanding, and the emphasis is on getting a deal done and making a clean exit. In other instances, microcaps that sell stock in secondaries to raise growth capital will often fall hard. We cull out the companies that we think will see earnings accretion from new capital or if proceeds are used to pay down debt, resulting in a cleaner balance sheet. We observe big discounts in these offerings, but the stock will generally recover quickly after the overhang is gone and the uncertainty about the big seller is removed or selling pressure abates, as recently observed in a model portfolio holding BXC, up over 100% since August of 2016 (see case study below). BGSF and ORBK are additional examples of accretive secondary offerings that were misunderstood by the market, where Geo was able to take advantage of the situation. There is extra liquidity created around these events, which allows participants to trade in and out of these situations with bigger investment amounts.
  • 11. Geoinvesting.com 11 Case Study: Orbotech Ltd Sizable secondary offering leads to weakness in stock, but is in reality accretive to earnings Ticker NASDAQ: ORBK Offering Price $ 26.52 Time Horizon 1 Month Offering Volume 3,850,000 Price Exit $ 28.82 Return 8.67% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ Orbotech is principally engaged in the design, development, manufacture, marketing and service of yield- enhancing and production solutions for specialized applications in the supply chain of the electronics industry. ➢ We initially found the company in 2015 after it increased its annual guidance. Our analysis indicated that the company might finally turn profitable and we kept following the stock. ➢ In June 2016, the company announced a sizable secondary offering of 3.85m new shares. The stock trended down quickly and ended up trading below the offering price. ➢ Our analysis showed that the company’s plan to deleverage the balance sheet would be immediately accretive to earnings and we had a strong EPS outlook for the company. We initiated a position on weakness in the stock around the time of the offering. We continue to trade profitably in the stock to this day.
  • 12. Geoinvesting.com 12 Case Study: BlueLinx Holdings Inc Major Legacy Shareholder sells Stake through Underwriter at Big Discount, Making for Attractive Entry Point Ticker NASDAQ: BXC Offering Price $ 7.00 Time Horizon 1 Month Offering Volume 3,863,850 Current Price $ 8.90 Return 27.14% *data as of 3/8/2018 ➢ BlueLinx Holdings is a leading distributor of building and industrial products in the US. ➢ We started tracking the company in late 2016 as an asset sale put them ahead of schedule in their restructuring efforts. ➢ During our due diligence process, we learned that Cerberus Capital was a long-time investor in the company. ➢ Cerberus’s overhang in the stock suppressed the stock price, but we anticipated they would look for an exit soon. ➢ In September 2017, we observed weakness in the stock, and anticipated that Cerberus would soon try to sell its stake, because Cerberus’ fund that was invested in BXC was winding down. ➢ The shares were sold in a non-dilutive secondary offering through an underwriter, BTIG LLC, who offered GeoInvesting to participate in the offering at $7.00 per share. No new shares were issued. Cerberus just opted to sell its stake through an underwriter. Not only was there an opportunity to get a great return on a sizable number of shares in a trade, but we also believe opportunities like this can enable investors to build sizable positions in quality companies to hold longer term. BXC stock never reached the offering level price of $7.00 in open market trading.