2. Introduction
• Gentrification
• A process by which higher-income residents succeed lower-
income residents within inner-city neighborhoods
3. Objective
• Analyze the relationship between gentrified areas and
crime rate in Washington, DC between 2000 and 2010
• Null Hypothesis: there is no clear relationship between the GI and
rates of crime above a random chance
• Alternative Hypothesis: rates of crime are correlated with
gentrification above a random chance
4. Methodology
• Gentrification Index
• Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
• Weighted Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE)
• Linear Regression Analysis in SPSS
• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression in Arc
6. Gentrification Index
Gentrification Index, Percentage Change 2000 and 2010, Indicators
Demographic Socioeconomic Housing
Population, Age 25-34 Percent with High School Diploma Number of Homeowners
Population, Age 55-64 Percent with Bachelor's Degree Number of Renters
Median Household Income Average Home Value
Poverty Rate Average Rent
Unemployment Rate
Source: Neighborhood Info DC
10. Results
Explanatory
GI Violent Property Total Crime
Coefficient -0.024422 -0.018891 -0.019164
Probability 0.004971 0.026556 0.007379
Adjusted R-Sqrd 0.038967 0.022366 0.035011
Dependent
Ordinary Least Squares Bivariate Regression Analyses
11. Conclusion
• Reject null hypothesis in favor of alternative hypothesis
• Not all crime is directly correlated with gentrification
• Rates of violent crime are less prevalent in areas of gentrification
• Rates of property crime tend to occur in areas regardless of
whether they were identified as gentrifying or not
Editor's Notes
Why We Chose the Topic:
Test assumption that gentrification reduces crime
Gentrification is difficult to substantiate in concrete terms.
We used the definition of gentrification…
Also, the deepening of wealth inequality and the polarization of neighborhoods into extremes of rich and poor.
We used eleven socioeconomic and housing variables, weighted according to Principal Component Analysis.
Regression analysis in SPSS was used to quantify the relationship between the GI and change in violent and property crime rates
We apply our GI by testing it against percent changes in the rates of violent crime, property crime, and total crime, supplementing the explanatory variables of distance to Metro and police stations.
Several DC census tracts were merged together between 2000 and 2010, therefore the 2000 data needed to be aggregated to the 2010 census tract boundaries. Twenty-three census tracts from 2000 were subsequently merged together to form 11 geographically larger census tracts while three census tracts were split in half to form six geographically smaller census tracts.
Census tracts removed:
Census tract 62.02, which encompasses the National Mall and Federal office buildings downtown was removed because the population for both 2000 and 2010 was below 40 people.
Census tract 02.01, which conforms to the boundary of Georgetown University, was removed because while there was a significant population within the census tract, the data indicated that everybody lived below the poverty line.
The third census tract that was removed was 68.04, encompassing the area of RFK stadium, parking lots, and the DC armory, was removed because there was very little census data for it. In the end we used 176 Washington, DC census tracts from the 2010 census to calculate our gentrification index.
The gentrification index was created based on the following eleven variables to represent the level of gentrification that occurs per census tract.
These variables were weighted and their percentage-change between 2000 and 2010, aggregated to 2010 census tracts.
Once analyzed in ArcMap by census tract, the Gentrification Index was separated into five categories: a decline in gentrification, based on a GI range of -0.2 to 0; no change in gentrification, a GI of 0 to 2.5; slight gentrification, a GI of 2.6 to 5.0; moderate gentrification, a GI of 5.01 to 20; and heavy gentrification, a GI of 20 or more.
Tracts with an increase in gentrification were found in the central part of Washington, DC, surrounding the 16th Street corridor, along the Metro lines, and the northern bank of the Anacostia River. Strong gentrification occurred in two tracts: one in Chinatown and the other in the Navy Yard.
Tract 72.00 and tract 59.00 had the highest measure of gentrification with a GI of 38 and 24 respectively. Tract 72.00 is near the Navy Yard along the Anacostia River and on Metro’s Green line. Tract 59.00 is
north of the National Mall and east of Chinatown along the Metro’s Red line.
A bivariate visualization of the ratio between percent increase or decrease in property and violent crime. While the two tracts with the highest GI exhibited a decrease in crime, there was an overall reduction in crime wihin the central areas of Washington, DC.
Our SPSS regression demonstrated that violent crime’s relationship with the GI was significant while property crime’s relationship with the GI was not significant at the 95% confidence level.
Crime is associated with gentrification in complex ways
The OLS regression results add, however, that tract centroid distances to police and metro stations, and our definition of gentrification captured in our GI, cannot explain the reason for this association, let alone account for majority of variation in the types of crime.
Future investigation: population change
Gentrification is only one possible way in which neighborhood demographic profiles can shift over time, and thus only one possible type of movement that may relate to changes in crime.
Variation in crime therefore might not be found in anything intrinsic to a single gentrifying or non-gentrifying tract, but instead reflects a more global ebbing and flowing of crime experienced at the level of all Washington, DC as a whole.
