Atlanta Regional Housing Forum, Alan Berube

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Atlanta Regional Housing Forum, Alan Berube

  1. 1. Alan Berube Brookings Institution Confronting Suburban Poverty Challenges and Solutions for the Atlanta Region
  2. 2. 1 The geography of poverty and opportunity has changed Current policies are not aligned to this new geography2 3 We need a new agenda for metropolitan opportunity
  3. 3. The geography of poverty and opportunity has changed 1
  4. 4. Today, more of the nation’s poor live in suburbs than in cities Number in poverty, central cities versus suburbs, 1970-2011. Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data 0 5 10 15 20 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 Millionsofpeople Poor Individuals in Suburbs Poor Individuals in Cities
  5. 5. The poor population doubled in Atlanta’s suburbs in the 2000s Number in poverty, central cities versus suburbs, 1970-2011. Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Thousandsofpeople Poor Individuals in Suburbs Poor Individuals in Atlanta
  6. 6. Poverty has spread beyond older, inner-ring suburbs
  7. 7. Atlanta’s urban and suburban poor are similar in many ways Source: Brookings Institution analysis of ACS data 7% 17% 29% 55% 53% 27% 19% 31% 30% 50% 43% 29% Foreign born White non- Hispanic Under 18 Female HH with kids Deep poverty HS dropout Share of Atlanta poor Share of Suburban poor
  8. 8. Several factors drive suburban poverty in the Atlanta region Population Change Immigration Housing Job Location Regional Economy
  9. 9. 4% 29% City Suburbs Cities Suburbs Population Change, Atlanta region, 2000 to 2011 Overall population has grown much faster in the suburbs Source: Brookings Institution analysis of ACS and Decennial Census data
  10. 10. Immigration is contributing to growth in suburban poverty Contribution to Growth in Suburban Poor Population, 2000 to 2009 27% 73% Foreign-born population Native-born population Source: Robert Suro, Jill Wilson, and Audrey Singer “Immigration and Poverty in America's Suburbs”
  11. 11. 55,042 74,581 2000 2008 Housing Voucher Recipients in Suburbs Affordable housing is spreading to Atlanta’s suburbs Source: Brookings Institution analysis of HUD “Picture of Subsidized Housing” data
  12. 12. 92% 91% Subprime Loans Loans in Foreclosure or Lost Share of 2004-08 Loans in Suburbs, Atlanta region Most subprime lending and foreclosures were suburban Source: Chris Shildt, Naomi Cytron, Elizabeth Kneebone and Carolina Reid, “The Subprime Crisis in Suburbia: Exploring the Links between Foreclosures and Suburban Poverty”
  13. 13. 60% 65% 2000 2010 Share of Atlanta region jobs Located 10 to 35 Miles from Downtown Jobs continue to move farther out in the Atlanta region Source: Elizabeth Kneebone, “Job Sprawl Stalls: The Great Recession and Metropolitan Employment Location”
  14. 14. Increase in Unemployment Rate, Atlanta region, Dec 2007 to Dec 2010 Unemployment rose as much in the suburbs as in the city 5.5 5.3 City Suburbs Source: Brookings Institution analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics LAUS data
  15. 15. Suburban poverty brings added challenges Transit Access Strained Local Services Limited Philanthropic Resources Change in School Populations
  16. 16. 100% 31% City Suburbs Share of Workers with Transit Stop Nearby, Atlanta region, 2011 Suburban commuters have much less access to transit Source: Tomer, Kneebone, Puentes, and Berube, “Missed Opportunity” (Brookings, 2011)
  17. 17. Suburban commuters with transit can’t reach as many jobs 33% 17% City Suburbs Share of Atlanta region jobs accessible within 90 minutes via transit, 2011 Source: Tomer, Kneebone, Puentes, and Berube, “Missed Opportunity” (Brookings, 2011)
  18. 18. Number of Education, Health, and Human Services Nonprofits per 1,000 residents, Atlanta region, 2010 0.99 0.24 Fulton County Rest of Metro Source: Analysis of Urban Institute National Center on Charitable Statistics data Suburbs have much less nonprofit density
  19. 19. Grants Dollars per Poor Person, Atlanta Metro Area 2007 $72 $2 City Suburbs Philanthropic support for suburban organizations is limited Source: Reckhow and Weir, “Building a Stronger Regional Safety Net” (Brookings, 2012)
  20. 20. Percent Change in Number of Students Enrolled in Free and Reduced Price Lunch, Atlanta region, 2005-06 to 2009-10 Schools are seeing low-income populations multiply 8% 25% City Suburbs Source: Brookings analysis of GreatSchools data
  21. 21. Average school-wide proficiency ranking statewide, Atlanta suburban students, 2009-10 Low-income suburban students attend schools with below- average test scores 71% 46% Middle- or high- income student Low-income student
  22. 22. Poverty is not distributing evenly across Atlanta’s suburbs Below Average Poverty Rate Growth Above Average Poverty Rate Growth Above Average Poor Population Growth Below Average Poor Population Growth Henry County Alpharetta city Gwinnett County Marietta city
  23. 23. Current policies are not aligned to this new geography 2
  24. 24. The legacy system of place-based anti-poverty programs does not map easily onto the suburban landscape $82 billion 81 federal programs 10 agencies
  25. 25. These programs typically address place-based poverty in one of three ways Service Provision Neighborhood Improvement Expanding Choice Need dispersed geographically Program stigma/ lack of familiarity Market failures not neighborhood based Areas may lack needed locational advantages Families have already “made it” to suburbs Opportunities may lie in very different part of region
  26. 26. Suburbs face additional challenges Lack of Capacity Inflexible, Unreliable Funding Extensive Fragmentation
  27. 27. The cavalry is not coming. --Bruce Katz
  28. 28. 3 We need a new agenda for metropolitan opportunity
  29. 29. Yet innovators across the country are finding creative ways to navigate this system
  30. 30. Achieve Scale Neighborhood Centers Inc. • Has an annual budget of more than $275 million, 70 different sites, and a staff of over 1,000 • Coordinates resources from 35 federal programs, state, local, and private sources to provide a seamless continuum of services • Collaborates with other area providers Support smart consolidation Improve systems and networks Promote high-performance organizations
  31. 31. Collaborate and Integrate Chicago Southland Housing and Community Development Collaborative • Represents 23 municipalities • Continues to be supported by regional institutions and local funders • Breaks down policy silos Identify and reduce barriers Catalyze regional capacity Reward collaborative approaches
  32. 32. Fund strategically Mortgage Resolution Fund • Uses a market-based, enterprise-level approach • Leverages existing nonprofit expertise and private sector resources • Focuses on measurable outcomes Commit to enterprise-level funding Promote tools that leverage public & private resources Develop consistent, comparable data sources
  33. 33. Creating a Metropolitan Opportunity Challenge could help bring these solutions to scale in regions across the country Federal Place-Based Anti-Poverty Programs $82 Billion; 81 Programs; 10 Agencies Re-purpose 5% : $4 billion
  34. 34. www.ConfrontingSuburbanPoverty.org You can read more about the Metropolitan Opportunity Challenge and the contents of the book on our new website
  35. 35. The website provides a host of helpful resources: Profiles of the top 100 metros Case studies of innovators Charts and data Video Infographic
  36. 36. Identity matters… 621,000 residents 714,000 residents
  37. 37. aberube@brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/metro www.confrontingsuburbanpoverty.org

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