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How to Predict the Future Using Futures Studies
- 1. How to Predict the Future(s) - The Application of Futures Studies to Social Impact Jeremy Pesner
- 2. Do you care about the future? omg relevance
- 3. What is Futurism? …or Futures Studies? …or Strategic Foresight?
- 8. But if these events are so unpredictable, how can we predict them?
- 23. Its mission: To improve decision-making about the future by empowering futurists, fostering networks and advancing knowledge and action on future-critical issues.
- 25. Thank you
Editor's Notes
- I’m Jeremy Pesner, thank you for having me today. I look forward to talking with you all about futurism, and why it can be helpful for each and every one of you. Now, you might be wondering how I know this. But there’s an easy answer:
- Do you care about the future? How many of you would say you do? Good, that’s what I hoped. We’re all working to better the future in one way or another. But as much as we want to change the future, we also need to prepare for how the future will affect us, and the work we do. My hope would be that we can start employing this type of thinking right away.
- Let’s start by asking the big question you all want to know: What exactly is futurism? Well, for one, it can go by several different names that are used interchangeably. It’s my belief that “strategic foresight” was developed to make it sound more palatable to large organizations. One definition I read recently goes as such: “Strategic foresight is a systematic approach to gathering intelligence about possible futures and building shared visions, aimed at guiding and enabling present-day decisions.” Thank god for teleprompters. But why is this worth incorporating into our work, our thinking and the way we live our lives?
- Well, my definition is that futurism is the contemplation and exploration of what might happen in the future, whether it’s 1 day or 100 years. It is not risk or trend analysis, or an attempted projection of variables and situations we’re already aware of. Futurism is all about punctuated disequilibria - the sudden changes that cause a complete shift in the world.
- According to the University of Houston’s foresight program, there are six major steps in the actual process, from first framing the issue through the implementation of the strategy derived from the work. In this talk I’m going to focus on the forecasting section, because that’s all I have time for, and I imagine most of you have done the other steps in different contexts. So let’s talk about what we actually might forecast. If any of you have heard of Nassim Taleb’s…
- Black Swan, oh, excuse me…
- Black Swans, they refer to exactly these types of momentous events. They change everything, and yet few see them coming. No graph or computer model would have predicted these events, to say nothing of the actual effects they had. This is where futurism comes in. So now, I’ll bet I’ve got you hooked. We have these big, world-altering events, and a whole field dedicated to consider them. But wait, I hear you say…
- …if no one saw these events coming, how can we possibly predict them?
- Well, smartass, you got me…
- If comic books have taught us anything, it’s the idea of considering multiple futures, worlds and possibilities for what lies ahead of us, and that is how we can best explore emerging trends. This isn’t about figuring out which potential future is “right” or “best,” but instead exploring with an even keel, and discovering what we can learn from all possibilities.
- Scenario planning is one of the oldest and simplest methods used in futurism. This allows you to plan four different possible futures, or scenarios, based on different outcomes of two major drivers, or uncertainties. Each quadrant represents the intersection of one of two possibilities for each driver. Then, you have four different stories, or visions, regarding what might happen.
- Shell actually started using this kind of forecasting in the early 70s. In 1973, they developed the unimaginatively-named “1973 scenarios,” which enabled them to consider the possibility of an oil shortage. Most companies didn’t undertake that kind of long-range strategic planning, to say nothing of actually incorporating it into their business strategy. But because Shell did, they were able to divest themselves of certain assets in time to weather the crisis well. I dunno, I feel like that’s a pretty good philosophy. (Really, nothing?)
- Let’s look at some examples. Here are the Edinburgh scenarios on the future of learning, created a decade ago. Their two drivers center around whether technology becomes a help or hindrance, and whether establishment conventions or self-styled systems drive learning processes and goals. Each quadrant has some summary details of what might happen in a scenario like that, but don’t bother trying to take them all in now. They’re also each given catchy names that help people identify them and have an idea of the flavor of that world. In this particular case, they also released a report analyzing each scenario in more detail.
- These are the delta scenarios, developed by the DoT. Since their mission is transportation, they decided to examine how climate change and economic growth would alter population growth and the general weather. You can see that this one is a lot more dense and specific, and I’m not entirely sure how they got their numbers, but the basic principle is the same.
- And sometimes, people just have fun with it.
- This is not just for your actual work, either. Looking ahead to possible futures in your own career path, like in this example, may help you to explore possibilities and decide what kind of job you want or skills you’d like to develop. http://archive.wired.com/special_multimedia/2009/ff_scenario_1708
- The instructions for scenario planning are fairly basic, but because the method is so loose, it can be difficult to figure out what level of rigor is required. I always recommend doing actual research and investigation work, so that you’re not just brainstorming and imagining what the most important drivers and scenario outcomes will be. Like any good research, you should have sources you can cite.
- Sometimes you may also need to change or update your drivers as your needs and goals change. Drivers should resonate with your reasons for doing the scenario planning in the first place, so don’t lock yourself into a particular model if it isn’t serving your needs.
- Now remember, the goal of scenario planning is to move beyond what you’d normally think of or consider, so be sure not to fall into traps where you prioritize what you already know or believe. Many things about today would have seemed crazy just 50 years ago, so don’t be afraid to consider off-the-wall possibilities.
- Oftentimes futurists will augment or alter the scenario planning process to account for more variables or to devise a more robust set of possibilities. Futurism was never designed to employ strict methodologies, and as such people are constantly innovating to improve and extend them.
- I wanted to add more examples, but everyone in the room is in such diverse fields. I can’t really think of one topic that we could all resonate with… Oh, nevermind. I have a task for you all. I didn’t tell Cesar and the team I’d be doing this, but over the next few hours, I’d like you to take a little time and sketch out some scenarios for StartingBloc’s future. What do you think are StartingBloc’s biggest drivers? What would be the consequences of them going one way or the other? What’s the catchiest and most clever scenario title you can come up with? Bring all this tomorrow to the Future of StartingBloc session, and be prepared to knock leadership’s socks off with your insights.
- Scenario planning is only one method used in the futurism field. It actually turns out there are quite a few of them. They all work differently and have different particular uses, but their goals are the same: flesh out and imagine both what is going on now and how it will compare to what will happen later. Each of these methodologies have their uses and applications, and all of them are capable of delivering one kind of insight or another.
- I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the World Future Society. It’s the largest membership-based organization dedicated to these issues, and I now serve on its Global Generational Advisory Council. LA ’15 fellow Lea Artis does as well. And the best part: the society is headquartered right here in town. Those of you at last year’s scrimmage here may remember them as one of the clients. The CEO really likes what StartingBloc’s doing, and I know she’s interested in potential partnerships and collaborations.
- But let’s remember why we’re doing this. At the end of the day, we want to explore the futures so we can better understand how to act in the present. And while most futurist exercises are not normative - they’re looking at different possibilities without a value judgment - people in this room are working towards a preferred future. We want the right kind of future, like what this Theory of Change used in the social impact space outlines. Lea, myself, and some others in the futurism community have started to think about how we can incorporate methods like these, and I hope that once you start using these tools, you’ll want to join in the endeavor.