An initial perspective on the future of currency by Patrick Teng, CEO of Six Capital in Singapore. This is the starting point for the global future agenda discussions taking place as part of the futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
The purpose of this chapter is to contribute to the discussion of a number of issues concerning macroeconomic policies that should be appropriate for developing countries. We shall take into account the broader political picture of changes in the international economy, reflected objectively in terms of the nature of the balance of payments constraints facing the ‘emerging markets’ and specially the Latin American economies since the early 1990s. It is within this wider context that we present our account of the particular case of Brazil.
the Brazilian experience has some peculiarities that make it an interesting testing ground for the presumed benefits of the process of financial globalization and the policies of trade and financial opening.
Many will agree that the slow growth and extremely high inflation experienced in Brazil in the 1980s had much to do with debt crisis and the subsequent interruption of capital flows towards Latin America. Indeed, in what became known as the ‘lost decade’ Brazil experienced a severe balance of payments constraint that slowed growth and triggered the acceleration of inflation. Since the early 1990s, foreign capital started again flowing towards Brazil in large quantities, first mainly as portfolio capital but towards the end of the decade more and more as foreign direct investment. one could well have expected that this large amount of foreign capital would improve ‘quality’ (presumably increasingly ‘cold’ rather than ‘hot’ money), by alleviating the balance of payments constraint, and would have had a big effect on both inflation stabilization and in the resumption of fast economic growth.
However, what the actual record shows is that the impact on inflation stabilization, although starting a bit late, only by mid-1994, was in fact more drastic than anybody could have reasonably expected. Inflation fell spectacularly and has remained extremely low ever since. on the other hand, the growth performance was, to say the very least, extremely disappointing. this chapter will try to make sense of this experience using a combination of some features of the international situation and of particular policies followed by the Brazilian state.
Most Latin American economies followed more or less the same broad pattern of fast disinflation and slow growth with the notable exception of Chile and partial exception of Argentina. therefore the Brazilian story, in spite of its peculiarities, may arguably be seen to reflect a more general pattern.
We shall begin our discussion in the following section with a brief account of the operation of the current international monetary system, a system that we call the ‘floating dollar standard’, and of other salient features of the international trade and financial environment faced by the ‘emerging’ developing economies since the early 1990s. the third section shows how this new international environment affects and changes the nature of the balance
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook
1. The Future Is Wide Open: Avoid The ‘Illusion Of Knowledge’ Trap
The single most dangerous thinking trap / optical illusion for investors today is to look at Trump, Brexit and Italy Referendum as non-events, buried in the past. We believe that 2017 may likely be driven by the same factors that failed to shape 2016. The non-events of 2016 are likely to be the drivers of 2017. Finally, we will get to find out if Brexit means Brexit, if Trump means Trump, if a failed Italian referendum means early elections and a membership of the EMU in jeopardy down the line.
2. Structural Shift: These Are Transformational Times
The macro outlook of the next years will be influenced the most by these structural trends:
› Protectionism, De-Globalization & De-Dollarization. In Pursuit of Inclusive Growth
› End of ‘Pax Americana’. The ascent of China. Geopolitical risks on the rise
› End of ‘Pax QE’. Markets without steroids, but still delusional.
› 4th Industrial Revolution: labor participation rate falling from 63% to 40% in 10 years?
3. Our Baseline Scenario: Bubble Unwind, Equities and Bonds Down
Starting this 2017, our major macro convictions are as follows:
› Global Tapering to progress
› US Dollar to keep grinding higher
› European Political Instability to worsen
› US Equities to weaken
The purpose of this chapter is to contribute to the discussion of a number of issues concerning macroeconomic policies that should be appropriate for developing countries. We shall take into account the broader political picture of changes in the international economy, reflected objectively in terms of the nature of the balance of payments constraints facing the ‘emerging markets’ and specially the Latin American economies since the early 1990s. It is within this wider context that we present our account of the particular case of Brazil.
the Brazilian experience has some peculiarities that make it an interesting testing ground for the presumed benefits of the process of financial globalization and the policies of trade and financial opening.
Many will agree that the slow growth and extremely high inflation experienced in Brazil in the 1980s had much to do with debt crisis and the subsequent interruption of capital flows towards Latin America. Indeed, in what became known as the ‘lost decade’ Brazil experienced a severe balance of payments constraint that slowed growth and triggered the acceleration of inflation. Since the early 1990s, foreign capital started again flowing towards Brazil in large quantities, first mainly as portfolio capital but towards the end of the decade more and more as foreign direct investment. one could well have expected that this large amount of foreign capital would improve ‘quality’ (presumably increasingly ‘cold’ rather than ‘hot’ money), by alleviating the balance of payments constraint, and would have had a big effect on both inflation stabilization and in the resumption of fast economic growth.
However, what the actual record shows is that the impact on inflation stabilization, although starting a bit late, only by mid-1994, was in fact more drastic than anybody could have reasonably expected. Inflation fell spectacularly and has remained extremely low ever since. on the other hand, the growth performance was, to say the very least, extremely disappointing. this chapter will try to make sense of this experience using a combination of some features of the international situation and of particular policies followed by the Brazilian state.
Most Latin American economies followed more or less the same broad pattern of fast disinflation and slow growth with the notable exception of Chile and partial exception of Argentina. therefore the Brazilian story, in spite of its peculiarities, may arguably be seen to reflect a more general pattern.
We shall begin our discussion in the following section with a brief account of the operation of the current international monetary system, a system that we call the ‘floating dollar standard’, and of other salient features of the international trade and financial environment faced by the ‘emerging’ developing economies since the early 1990s. the third section shows how this new international environment affects and changes the nature of the balance
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
Superlatives sound commonplace in the financial industry, but foreign exchange earns them year in and year out. It is by a wide margin the world’s largest, most liquid marketplace. Yet, surprisingly, FX, the world’s largest and most active marketplace, often lacks for the attention its size merits. This report, sponsored by INTL FCStone, explores the risks, challenges and opportunities of the FX market and highlights strategies experts use to manage this large and complex market.
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Currency AnalysisFerhat Guven
In this note, we discuss the topic of currency from the perspective of the real estate investor in the region. Currency risk is frequently cited as an important factor when considering a real estate investment in Latin America. Over the past half decade, returns for foreign investments allocated to Latin America have been enhanced by the appreciation of currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso, the Chilean peso, and the Peruvian sol.
Futures Markets : Softs and FinancialsJack Johnson
New week starts, it is time for us – futures traders - to be back to review futures markets to see what should we note for our trading in the next few days. Are you ready?
Motivational Currency is a new approach to an old challenge. Motivational Currency is what drives people from the inside out. It's an easy to remember way to understand what motivates you, uncover what motivates others and influence with impact. . www.OnPointAdvising.com
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
A presentation I am giving to bitcoin exchange Coinsetter on intermarket analysis. Looking at the macroeconomic picture and all the global asset classes including bitcoin to see where we are from an investment and economic perspective.
US Fed rate hike in September 2015: Who will be the top 4 winners and losers?Aranca
The much hyped US Fed rate hike likely to be in September 2015 will mark the end of an era of free money. While it brings the good news that the most powerful economy of the world is back on track and can sustain a rate hike, there may be certain repercussions for the global markets. Here’s our take on who may win, and who may lose.
This article aims to analyze the process that is leading the dollar to its end as a world currency due to the lack of confidence caused by the lack of currency ballast, the decline of the US economy, the possibility of the explosion of the US public debt bubble and, also, for the political use of the dollar as a weapon to impose the political will of the American government, aiming at maintaining its hegemony at the global level. The dollar may be replaced by a world currency (SDR - Special Drawing Rights: a currency created by the International Monetary Fund used for payments between countries), the gold standard or a digital currency, such as the digital Yuan, which is being implemented in China.
Superlatives sound commonplace in the financial industry, but foreign exchange earns them year in and year out. It is by a wide margin the world’s largest, most liquid marketplace. Yet, surprisingly, FX, the world’s largest and most active marketplace, often lacks for the attention its size merits. This report, sponsored by INTL FCStone, explores the risks, challenges and opportunities of the FX market and highlights strategies experts use to manage this large and complex market.
Jamestown Latin America | Trends + Views | Currency AnalysisFerhat Guven
In this note, we discuss the topic of currency from the perspective of the real estate investor in the region. Currency risk is frequently cited as an important factor when considering a real estate investment in Latin America. Over the past half decade, returns for foreign investments allocated to Latin America have been enhanced by the appreciation of currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso, the Chilean peso, and the Peruvian sol.
Futures Markets : Softs and FinancialsJack Johnson
New week starts, it is time for us – futures traders - to be back to review futures markets to see what should we note for our trading in the next few days. Are you ready?
Motivational Currency is a new approach to an old challenge. Motivational Currency is what drives people from the inside out. It's an easy to remember way to understand what motivates you, uncover what motivates others and influence with impact. . www.OnPointAdvising.com
Ricardo V Lago -Interbank- Lima-22 04 2009 neiracar
Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa
A presentation I am giving to bitcoin exchange Coinsetter on intermarket analysis. Looking at the macroeconomic picture and all the global asset classes including bitcoin to see where we are from an investment and economic perspective.
US Fed rate hike in September 2015: Who will be the top 4 winners and losers?Aranca
The much hyped US Fed rate hike likely to be in September 2015 will mark the end of an era of free money. While it brings the good news that the most powerful economy of the world is back on track and can sustain a rate hike, there may be certain repercussions for the global markets. Here’s our take on who may win, and who may lose.
This article aims to analyze the process that is leading the dollar to its end as a world currency due to the lack of confidence caused by the lack of currency ballast, the decline of the US economy, the possibility of the explosion of the US public debt bubble and, also, for the political use of the dollar as a weapon to impose the political will of the American government, aiming at maintaining its hegemony at the global level. The dollar may be replaced by a world currency (SDR - Special Drawing Rights: a currency created by the International Monetary Fund used for payments between countries), the gold standard or a digital currency, such as the digital Yuan, which is being implemented in China.
Investors caught off guard by the Great Game’s evolution
stand to lose – on the low end – $1.41 trillion every year from
Wall Street alone.
And billions more could be eradicated from their bank
accounts due to spikes in energy and natural resource prices
– mixed with sharp drops in the U.S. dollar.
Ask yourself: Are you protected?
You don’t want to be left without a chair when the music stops.
As this Global Game unfolds, our entire way of life will
experience a dramatic shift for which very few investors have
prepared http://withDrDavid.com
Here’s a taste of the road ahead for the global economy:
• Coming supply shocks to natural resources – from oil and gas
to grains and rare earth metals – could unleash rampant
inflation that tears through every corner of the world economy.
• Exposure to mounting domestic debt leaves numerous leading
economies vulnerable to mounting geopolitical pressures,
reducing their political influence and driving up interest rates.
• The re-balancing of power between nations could cause
certain currencies to crash, economies to weaken, and
companies to crumble.
Can investors bet on a broad emerging markets recoveryteam-abr
Following the 2008 financial crisis, emerging economies rebounded. But since 2011 things have changed.
Emerging economies are now richer than ever. And while these countries still have an opportunity to grow in the future, their growth rates are likely to be slower than in the past.
As advanced economies recover and their monetary policies return to more conventional policies, further weakness in emerging markets’ equities and bond markets is expected.
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
This is an updated view on future of currency. Building on the new initial perspective authored by Patrick Teng, CEO of Six Capital, it includes insights from events in Asia and will be added to in Europe as we explore how currency is changing over the next decade.
Global Macro-economics, Trends, Portfolio ImplicationsNikunj Sanghvi
My presentation to the Bombay Chartered Accountants' Society International Economic Study Circle on Global macro-economics, trends, portfolio implications
Aug 7th 2013
Mumbai, India
This article aims to demonstrate that the world is heading towards recession followed by a global economic depression, as well as presenting the solutions to deal with this gigantic problem.
International Monetary System: The International Financial System - Reform of International Monetary Affairs
- The Bretton Wood System and the International Monetary Fund, Controversy over Regulation of International
Finance, Developing Countries' Concerns, Exchange Rate Policy of Developing Economies.
International Monetary System: The International Financial System - Reform of International Monetary Affairs
- The Bretton Wood System and the International Monetary Fund, Controversy over Regulation of International
Finance, Developing Countries' Concerns, Exchange Rate Policy of Developing Economies.
Similar to Future of Currency - Initial Persepctive (20)
Future of Off-Premise Dining - Emerging View.pdfFuture Agenda
From ‘dark kitchens’ to ubiquitous delivery brands and grocery on-demand, where, what and how we all eat is undergoing significant and rapid change.
In a collaborative project, put together in partnership with McCain, we have been looking out to 2030 to explore and define how Off-Premise Dining might further evolve, and which of the multiple current trends are likely to stick? The emerging view is a first step toward answering the question. It reflects the key insights gathered from interviews and in-depth workshops with key industry stakeholders in Europe, the Americas and Asia, as well as the Future Agenda database and synthesised desk research.
The fight for future market share is already well underway, and significant bets are being placed on a wide range of future opportunities; from health-focused vending machines, through increasingly sophisticated mobile apps, to personalisation of food flavours. With so many significant shifts taking place simultaneously across the entire off-premise dining value chain, there will inevitably be winners and losers. We hope our insights can serve as a jumping off point for further discussion as to where the winners might emerge.
As with all Future Agenda projects, the aim is to challenge assumptions, identify emerging trends, and build an informed assessment of the changes ahead and their implications for strategy, policy, innovation and action.
If you’d like to be involved and add your views into the mix please do get in touch james.alexander@futureagenda.org
As companies and governments around the world grapple with accommodating changes in the workplace, the workforce and the nature of work itself, we are pleased to be continuing our Future of Work foresight programme. Building on previous global research undertaken over the past few years, we are now looking in depth at six pivotal issues that have been prioritised as areas of major potential change. These are digital skills, soft skills, reinventing roles, the blurring of work, green jobs and digital productivity. Initially taking a European focus, with the support of Amazon, over the next couple of months a series of expert digital workshops are exploring the core shifts ahead and their implications for organisations and wider policy.
This PDF sets the scene for the dialogue both within the workshops and more widely. If you would like to be involved or have comments on the potential changes ahead, do let us know and we can accommodate. As always all discussions are under the Chatham House Rule and so there is no attribution and, as we progress with each area, we will be sharing a synthesis of all new insights and recommendations over the rest of the year.
Future of asthma care a global expert view - summary - august 2021Future Agenda
Future of Asthma Care in 2030
Often hidden by many, asthma is a set of chronic conditions that will, some believe, impact around 1bn of us by the end of the decade. It will see new diagnostics, new treatments as well as gain new social and economic perspectives in many nations. As part of a global Open Foresight programme to bring together an informed outlook for all to use, this is a draft synthesis based on dialogue with 100 experts worldwide. At a time when lung health is front of mind for many, this is an important topic for our future health.
We are keen to understand your view on this. What do you agree with, what is missing and what may need an alternative perspective? Please do share any comments and feedback to douglas.jones@futureagenda.org and we will include everything in the final report that will made available later this year.
Future of work employability and digital skills march 2021Future Agenda
The Future of Work, Employability and Digital Skills
This interim summary identifies 50 key insights for the next decade on this critical topic. These open foresight findings are based on the results of 20 workshops and 150 interviews with over 400 informed experts from across academia, business and government conduced in the last 12 months. These were primarily across Europe, but also include views from US and SE Asia.
The varied discussions identified multiple key shifts that expected to have greatest impact over the next decade. The top 3 of these are seen as pivotal for society, for government, for employers and for future workers.
Building Digital Skills
Reinventing Roles
Developing Soft Skills
To build a richer, deeper view, we would very much welcome your feedback – especially on which shifts may deliver most benefit in the next ten years, and what is missing that ought to be included in the mix.
The UK in 2030 - An expert informed view on some key trendsFuture Agenda
At a time when there is much speculation on what the next twelve months may bring, some are also looking ahead to prepare for the longer term. What will the UK be like in 2030 when the nation is post-Covid, post-Brexit and post-Johnson? Now that vaccines are being rolled out and the initial outline hard Brexit deal has been done, how will the UK fair over the decade – economically, socially and demographically? What changes are already locked-in and what is open to future variation? Based on numerous discussions with a wide range of experts across the UK in late 2020, this document explores some of the key potential trends for the next decade and highlights where the UK may be heading.
Having a well-defined future view is never easy – particularly in times of uncertainty. However, if we can differentiate between the certain, the probable and the possible we can build a clearer picture of the future which may help to challenge assumptions. Since 2010, Future Agenda has been using open foresight to explore decade-long trends with a high degree of accuracy. The World in 2020, written in 2010 for example, accurately anticipated a range of developments such as a global pandemic, the challenges around data privacy, the scaling up of electric and autonomous vehicles, the widespread use of drones and the building impact of solar energy. All of these were anticipated through extensive expert dialogue across multiple disciplines to curate an integrated, informed perspectives which can be accessed by everyone.
We used a similar approach to explore the pivotal shifts ahead for the UK. Following multiple expert discussions including academics, regional and central government, social and business leaders, as well as the military, this document summarises eight areas of alignment about UK 2030 but also highlights three fields where there is substantial difference of opinion.
Our conversations identified eight core areas where we can have confidence that changes will take place. These trends are:
1. A Changing Demographic Mix
2. Accelerating to Zero Carbon
3. Improved Digital Connectivity
4. Declining Economic Influence
5. More Devolved Power
6. Rising Inequality
7. Emphasis on the Local
8. UK Leadership
Future of retail - Five key future trends - 9 Dec 2020Future Agenda
Future of Retail – Five Key Trends
The pandemic has accelerated change across many sectors – and especially retail. More online, less physical and empty malls have been evident globally. So what about the next ten years? What changes will continue to accelerate, which will rebalance, and which new ones will emerge?
Based on extensive dialogue with retail, tech and city leaders globally, this new point of view brings together the major shifts in the mix collated under five key trends – Reemphasis on the Local, Identity Insights, Automated Retail, Continuous Interaction and Informed Consumers.
Now being used to stimulate new thinking, innovation and strategy development in multiple projects around the world, this is being shared to continue dialogue on changes and impact.
We welcome your views @futureagenda
The third programme has taken place during 2020, engaging more experts on the pivotal shifts via virtual workshops and wider community debate.Here are ten issues that will provide future challenge and opportunity.
E7 Not G7
As global GDP rises, the seven largest emerging economies (E7) have increasing economic power. The relative influence of the old G7 Western powers declines.
Data Sovereignty
Large-population emerging economies see the protection of their data as a national priority. Wider data sharing is restricted to within national borders.
The Race to Net Zero
Cities, countries and companies compete to set the standards for the planet.Fully reducing emissions is central for energy, health and economic targets.
Electric Aviation
As the pressure to decarbonise aviation builds and technology challenges are addressed, using electric planes for short / medium-haul flights gathers support.
The Stakeholder Society
The shift from maximising shareholder value to a stakeholder focus accelerates. Organisations’ purpose, action and performance measurement realign.
Migrating Diseases
Health systems struggle to address the impact of climate change. The increased spread of ‘old’ vector-borne diseases challenge nations for whom they are ‘new’.
Peak Soil
After water and air quality, attention shifts to soil. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Action follows deeper understanding.
True Personalisation
Ubiquitous facial recognition and digital identity combine with wider AI adoption to enable the creation and delivery of truly individualised experiences.
Resilience by Design
Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs. Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems.
Proof of Immunity
Public concerns about health security override worries about privacy. Governments integrate immunity and health data with national identities.
More details on www.futureagenda.org
Future of work employability and digital skills nov 2020Future Agenda
Future of Work, Employability and Digital Skills
As the world of work changes, how will organisations, society and individuals adapt to ensure that the current and the next generation will be able to acquire the skills necessary for future jobs? Building on previous Future Agenda research that focussed on key policy areas primarily in the Asian market and, more recently, an updated outlook on the future of work and skills development developed in partnership with the University of Bristol, School of Management, we are very pleased to be starting a new phase of research. As well as an analysis of the future of work, this will specifically explore the shifting nature of employability and how and where digital skills will have impact.
Over the next few months, expert views from across Europe will be shared in order to develop a richer understanding of key issues and how they vary across different jurisdictions. As with all Future Agenda projects, the aim is to challenge assumptions, identify emerging trends and build an informed assessment of the changes ahead and their implications for policy and action.
If you would like to be involved and add your views into the mix, please get in touch.
Future of retail global trends summary nov 2020Future Agenda
This is an updated summary of 60 global trends that may impact the world of retail over the next decade. Multiple expert discussions across Asia, Europe, MENA and North America have developed and shared these insights that have been curated into ten key shifts.
As we finalise the future views before wider public sharing, we very much welcome your feedback on these and which may have greatest future impact.
douglas.jones@futureagenda.org
@futureagenda
The UK in 2030
In the midst of all the current uncertainty, many people are seeking greater clarity around how the future may unfold – both globally and locally. Therefore, as part of the World in 2030 project, we have curated a specific perspective on the UK in 2030.
As with all our Open Foresight projects, UK 2030 is built through dialogue with informed individuals holding alternative outlooks on how things may unfold. This PDF provides an initial collation of some of their views on what is certain, probable and possible. We will use it to initiate further period of consultation over the next month.
With this in mind we would very much welcome your thoughts – especially around the areas that you agree with, those you disagree with and your suggestions about what is missing. Your knowledge will add both richness and depth to this point of view. We will share an updated and more detailed summary before Christmas. The ambition is that this can then be used to both inform and challenge assumptions so we can all gain a clearer perspective on the future of the UK.
@futureagenda
london@futureagenda.org
The world's most innovative cities past present future - oct 2020Future Agenda
Cities are where innovation happens, where most ideas form and economic growth largely stems. For centuries, the world’s most innovative cities have been acting as global catalysts for change, and will continue to do so. As more cities seek to have impact over the next decades, we need to better understand what drives success and so identify those that may have greatest lasting impact.
APPROACH – Getting Clarity
Future Agenda has been conducting multiple discussions around the world on the future of cities (www.futureofcities.city). Our aim is to explore the range of views about what makes one city more successful, more influential and more innovative than other, and also consider key related issues such as the future of work, health, trade, trust, transport and data.
In addition, we have applied a similar modelling technique to those applied to Innovation Leaders which, for twenty years, has identified the companies that have been the best and most sustained innovators, in order to assess what potentially makes one city more innovative than another. Exploring multiple criteria, we have highlighted some core global catalysts for change.
To accompany a speech at the WRLDCTY event, this presentation shares some of the salient insights: It profiles some of most innovative cities of the past, identifying the key elements that contributed to their success, highlights some of the pivotal cities having greatest impact today, and, lastly, suggests ten cities for future global innovation leadership.
https://www.futureofcities.city
https://www.wrldcty.com
https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Data as an Asset – A Top Risk?
The concept of data being accounted for as an 'asset' is increasingly considered to be a top future risk. The fifth of our 2030 digital workshops in collaboration with The Conference Board explored varied potential data risks (Many thanks to Ellen Hexter and Sara Murray for organising).
Rated top by 50 business leaders for future impact, and second for likely change, was a foresight that “organisations will be obliged to account for what data they own or access. As such they will be required to regularly report on their full data portfolio.” (See attached PDF)
Particular concerns were raised on; how organisations will best assign value to their data; how it will be treated as an asset; who will audit this; whether ownership will be transferred with use and how, if valued, data will be taxed.
Some felt that by 2030 there will be guidelines, standards and frameworks in place – other were less convinced. Most however agreed that many business models will change.
To explore this topic more see section 4.6 in the global report on https://www.deliveringvaluethroughdata.org
Add your view via @futureagenda on twitter or via LinkedIn on https://www.linkedin.com/posts/innovationstrategy_future-data-risk-workshop-stimulus-activity-6714470359971700736-MunM
While some regions gain from better water management, much of the world’s population increasingly depend on water moved from one river basin to another. New options are explored to achieve this economically and with reduced socio-environmental damage.
As part of the World in 2030 global open foresight project, this point of view shares some perspective on changes ahead.
With climate change, increasing urbanisation, growing contamination, higher water consumption, more intensive farming and rising industrial use in many economies all having significant and combined impact, as the global population approaches 10 billion, but the net amount of water on the planet stays constant, concerns over water stress have been building. With 70% of water used for agriculture, a quarter of humanity is now facing a looming water crisis. A broadening range of urban areas need multiple innovations to provide water to cities throughout the year.
Although better water management and the decreasing cost of desalination are having impact in some regions, in many others, and especially for fast-growing inland cities, the task of ensuring continued water access is mounting. Simply moving water from one river basin to another is not straightforward. It is fraught with technological, environmental, economic and socio-political challenge. There are however several developments underway to enable more effective long-distance movement of water – some focused on building new infrastructure at scale and others looking to imaginatively repurpose existing assets to help meet the inevitable future demand.
Share your views @futureagenda
Future of hospital design initial perspective - sept 2020Future Agenda
Hospitals of the Future
In partnership with Mott MacDonald we are exploring how hospital design will change in the next decade. Building on insights gained from multiple healthcare expert workshops around the world, this is an initial perspective that share some key thoughts on how and where we may see most change. Starting with context on shifts in healthcare more generally, from slide 28 onwards it includes 22 proposals for future design focus. These range from hub and spoke ecosystems and post-Covid reconfiguration to more flexible spaces and the impact of digital theatres.
As part of a global Open Foresight programme, we are now sharing these views to gain feedback for inclusion in a more detailed point of view that will be published later in the year. If you would like to add in your opinions on which issues will be driving most change in hospitals of the future, we would welcome input either directly to us by email (tim.jones@futureagenda.rg) or via this short survey: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/J9S8SB6
Many thanks in advance for your collaboration on another key topic for future change.
Future Risk: 12 Key Issues for Insurance in the Next DecadeFuture Agenda
The insurance sector is facing major change - from both within and outside. What will be the major shifts over the next decade that have greatest impact? As part of the World in 2030 project, this is an initial view of 12 major trends that will influence insurance globally - looking across data shifts, market trends and in-sector innovations.
What do you think? Which will have greatest impact? Will it be automatic insurance? or N=1 personalisation?
Let us know your views and we can include them in an updated foresight in the next month or so.
Get in touch via douglas.jones@futureagenda.org
For more on The World in 2030 see: https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Porous Organisations
Here is our latest 2030 foresight.
This time we focus on the challenges for the future of work. Increasing competition for talent forces organisations to open their doors to a growing number of independent workers. This makes it difficult to maintain corporate knowledge and becomes a challenge for business big and small. In a highly volatile and increasingly complex landscape, many must learn how to manage a seamless flow of knowledge and ideas so they can adapt to changing customer demands, ensure capabilities are maintained and keep the doors to innovation open. Looking ahead, it seems that only the wealthiest and most attractive organisations (in the main technology companies) will be able to retain the loyalty of their employees. For everyone else, building and preserving corporate know-how within increasingly porous organisational boundaries will become a priority. As ever your thoughts and provocations are very welcome.
To access via website https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/porous-organisations/
New solid-state batteries offer safer, higher performance than existing options and become viable options for use across multiple sectors. Competitive pricing and proactive policymaking accelerate global uptake.
This foresight is part of the World in 2030 project exploring the key global shifts for the next decade - https://www.futureagenda.org/the-world-in-2030/
Battery development has become a priority area for a broadening range of companies in recent years. Significant investment is underway as a number of new technologies compete for fast-growing markets. Five years ago, we identified that energy storage was the missing piece of the renewables jigsaw: “If solved, it can enable truly distributed solar energy as well as accelerate the electrification of the transport industry.” Today, as economies focus on faster decarbonisation and increasing electrification, particularly in transportation, the speed of new battery development has become a central issue for many researchers, policy makers, investors and companies.
Why is this? If we can get significantly more energy from a lighter, more compact, but affordable battery then the implications are enormous. Not only will this accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles by extending their range and providing a cheap way to store renewable, particularly low cost solar, energy, but it will also release a host of new developments in other areas from wearable electronics to electric planes, drones and scooters.
Given the demand for high performing batteries is building, it is hardly surprising that there is as much focus today on creating the batteries of tomorrow as there was when the first rechargeable battery was invented 160 years ago: according to a USPTO search in the past decade or so over 200,000 battery related patents have been issued. The rush to deliver the next generation technology is bringing together a host of new partnerships and foremost in many discussions is the potential impact of solid-state batteries. Within the next decade these could become the catalysts for substantial and lasting change across many sectors.
Soil is fundamental, fragile and finite. It impacts everything from food and health to conflict and migration. Deeper understanding of its degradation raises the significance of soil to equal that of climate change and biodiversity loss.
We know that the quality of our soil is the key to the food we grow, the clothes we wear and the water we drink. It recycles nutrients, sequesters carbon, is fundamental to biodiversity, helps keep our ecosystems in balance and is an essential part of our general wellbeing. But, although soil represents the difference between survival and extinction for most terrestrial life, human activities have caused it harm leading to compaction, loss of structure, nutrient degradation, increasing salinity and denuding landscapes. Furthermore, the urgent need to preserve soil receives relatively little attention from governments. An unsung hero of our planet, it is fragile, infinitely important and finite. Why do we treat it with such disregard?
As part of the World in 2030 programme, this foresight explores the future of soil and the stresses ahead https://www.futureagenda.org/foresights/peaksoil/
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
1. Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning
Trade
Trade
Trade
Currency opt 1
Currency opt 2
Currency opt 3
futureagenda.org
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
1
Patrick Teng -CEO, Six Capital
The Future of Currency
Currencies are influenced by social, economic
and political change, so it is little surprise
that all around the world they are in a state
of flux. In Europe the future of the Euro is
a real concern; the ASEAN markets, fearful
of making similar mistakes, are backing
away from their flirtation with a collective
currency unit; in China, the ambition to
extend economic influence and desire that
the Yuan is recognized as an alternative
reserve currency is being tempered by
a financial slowdown; in the US there is
growing uncertainty about whether the dollar
will maintain its status as the primary unit of
global currency, and on top of this, instability
in the Middle East and the dramatic fall in
oil prices have all combined to make the
currency markets increasingly volatile. The
result is a fragile global financial system
continuing to face the real possibility of
further financial crises.
While few are suggesting the imminent
demise of the existing currency order, key
questions stand out. What will be the real
role of currency in the next ten years? How
will regulation adapt to this? Given all the
disruptions, how best can we stabilize the
marketplace? How can currency markets
organize themselves more effectively? In ten
years’ time will the focus remain on national
currencies or will alternative currencies, such
as Bitcoin,Amazon Coins or BerkShares take a
more prominent role? The future seems like
a complex game of musical chairs – positions
are yet to be decided and it is by no means
clear that there will be a seat for everyone
when the band eventually stops playing.
The Global Challenge
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning
Trade
Trade
Trade
Currency opt 1
Currency opt 2
Currency opt 3
Options and Possibilites
First let’s consider the role of currency.
Money acts as a store of value and as
a means of exchange either between
individuals, corporations or nations and
as such its real value is derived from the
faith we have in it. The buying and selling
of currency effectively measures a nation’s
credibility and helps to stimulate growth
and stability in the global market place.
But the opposite is also true. Attempts to
control the impact of currency fluctuations
have been unsuccessful and following the
2008 economic crises the global monetary
system has become increasingly fickle,
grappling with speculative investments
while attempting to manage the imbalances
between countries (their current account
deficits and surpluses) and to control
g
Currency opt 2
Currency opt 3
2. the gross capital flows that are currently
overburdening emerging markets.
Given this role, there are 6 key themes
expected to impact currency markets over
the next 10 years: the pace of trade; pegs
and floating exchange rates; the role of the
dollar as the global currency; the rise of the
Chinese Renminbi; regulation; and emerging
alternatives.
Technology has increased the speed and flow
of currency trade. This pace can often be at
the cost of appropriate consideration and
due diligence. With profit as the motivator
and with deal speed at a premium, currency
traders are rarely able to pause to consider
what the impact of their transaction could
be on a wider society. Currencies change
in nanoseconds. And yet it can take nations
years to recover from a fall. Perhaps it’s now
time to recognise that the way we manage
money is not fit for purpose in today’s world
and is unlikely to adapt to the changes over
the next decade. We need a new order that
can help stabilise the global marketplace and
deliver appropriate returns.
A critical lesson that Europe has taught Asia
is that combining currencies doesn’t work.
Over the long term neither do currency
pegs. In many ways a single currency across
a group of countries is simply an extreme
version of a peg and in times of crisis its
inflexibility imposes unnecessary constraints
on national governments, limiting options
and reducing their ability to respond to
market conditions. This can have a huge
impact on the local population. For example
in Greece, a Euro member struggling under
the weight of national debt, incomes have
fallen by nearly 30% since 2007 while almost
26% of the workforce is unemployed. In
truth, Europe’s single currency, created to
foster unity and ease trade, has become the
source of significant issues for many member
states. As the challenges for continental
Europe continue to increase many
commentators expect that the next decade
will see an unraveling of the European
model, including a possible devaluation of
multiple currencies in order for the smaller
nation states to be able to compete globally.
There are already major indications that this
is taking place, including the Swiss National
Bank’s decision to unpeg the Swiss franc and
the European Central Bank (ECB) programme
of quantitative easing.
Over in the US, the situation is in as much
flux, but for different reasons. The US has
been the primary trading nation of the
20th century and it is no slouch in the 21st,
accounting for 23% of global GDP and 12%
of merchandise trade. This has allowed the
dollar to dominate the markets. This is,
of course, good news for America as it has
paved the way for US fund managers to
run about 55% of the world’s assets. About
60% of the world’s output is in one way
or another influenced by the dollar, either
because currencies are pegged or because
they move in relation to it. It’s easy to see
the advantages from a US perspective but
not for everyone else, particularly because
the current system does not include a
guaranteed lender of last resort. Many
countries have built up enormous safety
buffers of dollar reserves to counter this but
that means that they are obliged to mimic US
policy. The result is that a rise in US interest
rates or even the threat of it has knock on
consequences across the world, particularly in
emerging markets. For many, the cost of the
dollar’s dominance is beginning to outweigh
its benefits, particularly as the US share of
world trade and GDP is in decline. Countries
would ideally let their currencies float so
that they can more easily adjust to changing
market conditions. Despite all this, the reality
today is that the dollar dominates global
trade, with even China’s trade into Africa
being contracted in dollars. The question,
however remains: is it sensible or sustainable
for this to be centralised in one country?
As the US draws back China’s influence
is extending. Currently its share of world
GDP is similar to the US, at 16% and 17%
respectively1
but all the expectations are
that China will continue to grow. Even if
Chinese growth decreases as predicted,
this will be the big political issue of the
next decade. Increasing international use
of the Yuan is the result of the Chinese
Central Banks efforts to slowly loosen the
restrictions on cross border capital flows
2
Technology has Increased
the Speed of Currency Trade
With profit as the motivator
and with deal speed at a
premium, currency traders
are rarely able to pause to
consider what the impact of
their transaction could be on
a wider society.
Unfit For Purpose
Perhaps it’s now time to
recognise that the way we
manage money is not fit for
purpose in today’s world
and is unlikely to adapt to
the changes over the next
decade.
Combining Currencies
Doesn’t Work
A critical lesson that Europe
has taught Asia is that
combining currencies doesn’t
work. Over the long term
neither do currency pegs…
Many expect that the next
decade will see an unraveling
of the European model.
The US is in Flux
60% of the world’s output
is linked to the dollar. It’s
easy to see the advantages
of this for the US but not
for everyone else: The
system does not include a
guaranteed lender of last
resort.
US Global Control
Some countries have build
up significant dollar reserves
but, for many, the cost of
its dominance is beginning
to outweigh the benefits,
particularly as the US share
of world trade and GDP is in
decline.
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
3. 3
and to free up the country’s financial system.
China is opening up and wants the natural
privileges a vast economy might expect: a
big say over global rules of finance and trade
and a widely used currency. Special Drawing
Rights (SDRs), are a start as they effectively
mean official recognition by the IMF that
the Yuan is acting as a reserve currency,
despite China’s extensive capital controls.
China’s government is preparing the way; the
next ten years will see its financial markets
continue down the path of liberalization,
helping to cement its place on the world
stage. Granted, the markets are still immature
and no-one expects an easy ride, but the
direction of travel is clear.
Regulation is key in all of this as, properly
designed, it provides a basis for stability,
security and confidence in the system. As
with all regulation, however, it has to battle
the speed of technology and come up with a
process that allows innovation, competition
and change but restricts malpractice, crime
and terrorism. As ever these are dynamic
choices and as a consequence are not stable
over time. Ironically the response to the
2008 crisis has not had the desired effect,
limiting the activity of bankers but enabling
asset rich investors, sovereign wealth funds,
hedge funds and the like, hungry for new
investments, to take a greater share of the
pie. Because of their scale these funds
bring with them huge influence and this
has fundamentally changed the function of
currency. Every day trillions of dollars are
exchanged, much more than is needed for
international trade. The currency markets are
attractive to speculators whose measure of
success is dependent on the yield.
Traditional currencies, despite their long
history, are being challenged in other ways
too. The most important of these would
appear to be the recent arrival of distributed
ledger or blockchain technology. Distributed
ledger technology can be used to transact
anything of value without requiring a
trusted third party, with proven ownership
and timestamps of transaction enabling
instant settlement and clearing. Blockchain
is to trade and currency what email was for
the postal service – allowing direct trade
without recourse to a trusted third party
and at a fraction of the transaction cost.
The mysterious Bitcoin is still the largest
currency using distributed ledger technology,
but both Central Banks and global banking
institutions are taking seriously the potential
advantages available, with initiatives such
as SETL, Ripple, Uphold and Circle already
showing the possibilities in currency, trade
and payments. One potential accelerator
of adoption of the distributed ledger could
be the growth of the Internet- of-Things, as
this would allow objects to be connected
directly to trade, payment and currency
simultaneously.
Adjacent to this, there has also been
continued exploration of more “local”
currencies – be these defined by geography
(e.g. the BerkShare – a hyper-local currency
only accepted in the Berkshires, a region
in western Massachusetts. More than 400
Berkshires businesses accept the currency,
and 13 banks serve as exchange stations;
according to its website “the currency
distinguishes the local businesses that
accept the currency from those that do not,
building stronger relationships and greater
affinity between the business community
and the citizens”) or by a closed user group
or corporate ecosystem (e.g. the Amazon
Coin or Starbucks’ Stars). None of these local
currencies have yet to take off, and their
widespread growth potential would appear
to be limited.
There are of course other non-traditional
currencies. These include those that have
been around for a few decades such as credit
scores, loyalty rewards and points systems
(e.g. airmiles). However, in recent years
others have begun to emerge, most notably
in the domain of authentication, validation
reputation and trust. Examples here include
eBay seller ratings, TripAdvisor reputation
scores, LinkedIn or Quora knowledge
ratings – as well as the emergence of trust
aggregators such as Digi.me.
Two final stresses adding to the pressure on
traditional currencies as a means of exchange
are also worth mentioning. The first is the
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
The Start of Change for
the Yuan
Special Drawing Rights
(SDRs) are a start as they
effectively mean official
recognition by the IMF
that the Yuan is acting as
a reserve currency despite
China’s extensive capital
controls.
China’s Influence is Extending
China is opening up and
wants the natural privileges
a vast economy might expect:
a big say over global rules
of finance and trade and a
widely used currency.
Good Regulation is
Significant – for Stability
and Confidence
The response to the 2008
crisis has not had the desired
effect - limiting the activity
of bankers but enabling
asset-rich investors, sovereign
wealth funds, hedge funds,
hungry for new investments,
to take a greater share of
the pie.
Traditional Currencies are
Being Challenged.
Blockchain is to trade and
currency what email was
for the postal service. It is
allowing direct trade without
recourse to a trusted third
party and at a fraction of the
transaction cost.
Changing Times
Traditional currencies as
a means of exchange are
challenged by the growth
of non-traditional payments
systems and peer-to-peer
currency exchange and
remittance firms.
4. growth of peer to peer currency exchange
and remittance firms (e.g. TransferWise;
Western Union). The second is the rapid
growth of non-traditional payments systems
(e.g. Paypal, AliPay, ApplePay, Mpesa). In the
case of AliPay (Alibaba’s equivalent of PayPal),
it is worth noting that success has been not
only due to its distribution via the Alibaba
platform but also on the back of Chinese
distrust of US based or influenced payment
schemes such as Visa and Mastercard.
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measured at PPP
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A 3D View of Currency
Technology will allow
multiple variables to be
compared in real-time,
producing a 3D view
allowing traders to consider
what they are buying, why
they are buying it and the
impact that this may have
instantaneously.
Empowering the Crowd
In the future anyone will be
able to trade, immediately
knowing the amount they
are paying in the currency
of their choice. The number
of participants will drive the
market rather than single,
large-scale investors.
Born Free
Change across all regions
is inevitable: The emerging
markets, free of constraint,
are likely to seek to stabilize
their currencies and so be
able to support more foreign
investment.
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I believe that in the next decade we will all
be able to establish a much clearer picture of
capital flows and understand who is buying
currency and where that currency goes.
The information around currency value is
currently flat and limited in its extent, making
it difficult for anyone to compare multiple
market options concurrently. Technology will
change this and allow multiple variables to
be compared in real-time, producing a more
rounded, three-dimensional view allowing
traders to consider what they are buying,
why they are buying it and the impact that
this may have instantaneously. In addition
there will be more multi-currency platforms
for all stock and commodity trading making
it possible to see the real-time value of
an Australian share in, for example Yuan.
Perhaps more importantly over the long-term,
new data analytic capabilities will also help
traders identify emerging trends before
they happen.
Technology is also democratizing the
financial sector. In the not too distant future
anyone will be able to trade, immediately
knowing the amount they are paying in
the currency of their choice. This increased
transparency will make trading accessible
to a much larger base and in so doing will
limit the ability of the largest institutions
to use their size and scale to control the
market. Technology also enables resources
to be scaled like never before – entire
populations can now be targeted in order
to bring together huge numbers of small
investors. The number of participants will
drive the market rather than single, large-
scale investors. The force of the crowd could
begin to overpower the influence of the few.
When under threat, for example, it would be
possible for thousands of individual investors
to work together to stablise their national
currency and prevent possible disruption.
This sort of crowd intervention would be
revolutionary but is indeed a real possibility.
At the very least it will reduce the influence
of banks and similar institutions.
Given the shifts in global trade and the
opportunities that technology offers, change
across all regions is inevitable. In particular,
the emerging markets, free of constraint, are
likely to seek to stabilize their currencies
and so be able to support more foreign
investment. The crowd will be in control and
many small time traders are likely to join in;
if 100 million people all make the same $100
investment the impact will dwarf the power
of the hedge funds. Technology will also
make the markets more integrated while the
focus can remain fluid easily shifting from
a global to regional to local perspective. It
doesn’t mean that the competition will be
less fierce.
In summary, nothing is stable in the currency
markets but I believe over the next ten years
they will be shaped by three key elements.
Geopolitics, the rebalancing of power
between East and West and change the flow
of global trade will reduce the dominance
of the US as a centralised power. Secondly,
technology will continue to disrupt, enabling
more insight than ever to be derived through
the analysis of data and resources of the
many to be amalgamated and scaled. In the
process these dynamics will cause significant
decentralization. Influence that has
traditionally been held by select institutions
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Impact and Implications
5. 5
Market Chaos
The currency markets are
chaotic and they are likely
to become even more so
over the next ten years as
nations increasingly unpeg
themselves from the dollar
and other currencies.
will increasingly be moved to individuals and
crowds. All of these factors are in flux and
will interact with each other to determine
the state of the industry in 10 years’ time.
No-one can predict exactly what the currency
markets will look like in a decade, but
for the reasons outlined, it is likely to be
unrecognizable from what we see today.
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
The currency markets are chaotic and they
are likely to become even more so over
the next ten years as nations, increasingly
unpeg themselves from the dollar and other
currencies. It is likely that many will look for a
different system that bypasses the US clearing
banks and indeed they may well return to
using the gold standard as an alternative.
Advancements in technology will undoubtedly
make a significant difference to currency
trading and has the potential to fundamentally
disrupt the industry entirely.Technology
developments have overturned countless
industries over the last decade and currency
markets will be no exception.At its core,
technology will enable data to be collected,
analysed and then provided to traders in a
way which allows multiple variables to be
compared in real time.This will enable the
true value of currency to become far more
transparent.
Although the industry suffered from the
impact of High Frequency Trading (HFT), which
allowed securities to be bought and sold in a
fraction of a millisecond and arguably caused
the Flash Crash in 2010, the next decade
will see a more mature technology emerge.
The analysis of Big Data will enable a more
responsible use of HFT, driven by a processed
response to accurate information and not on
the knee jerk reaction of traders.
The collection and then application of Big
Data analytics will in the process transform
the industry. It has the potential to contribute
to overall liquidity and to create a new
paradigm that could even help to protect
sovereign currencies from speculative attacks.
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The Proposed Way Forward
6. 6
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
CEO, Six Capital
Lead expert on the Future of Currency.
Founder, Chief Dealer and CEO of Six Capital,
a revolutionary fin-tech company, Patrick is a
30-year industry veteran with a track record
in innovation.
While in his 20s, Patrick was VP and Chief
Dealer of Chase Manhattan – making him
one of Singapore’s youngest Chief Dealers.
Subsequently, he was VP for Treasury for the
Union Bank of Switzerland in Tokyo, actively
trading in one of the world’s largest currency
markets.
He has also served on part of the Singapore
Foreign Exchange Committee, where he and
his sub-committee were responsible for an
ambitious aim: to grow Singapore’s treasury
market and open lines of communication
between market participants and the
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
In 2009, Patrick founded Six Capital with
the aim of developing a pioneering fin-tech
company focused on leveraging the potential
of the currency markets. His vision is ‘to
create the future of jobs’, producing lasting,
positive impact on economies and society
through Six Capital’s services and operations.
Lead Expert – Patrick Teng
7. About Future Agenda
In an increasingly interconnected, complex
and uncertain world, many organisations
are looking for a better understanding
of how the future may unfold. To do this
successfully, many companies, institutions
and governments are working to improve
their use of strategic foresight in order to
anticipate emerging issues and prepare for
new opportunities.
Experience shows that change often occurs
at the intersection of different disciplines,
industries or challenges. This means that
views of the future that focus on one sector
alone have limited relevance in today’s world.
In order to have real value, foresight needs
to bring together multiple informed and
credible views of emerging change to form
a coherent picture of the world ahead. The
Future Agenda programme aims to do this
by providing a global platform for collective
thought and innovation discussions.
Get Involved
To discuss the future agenda programme and
potential participation please contact:
Dr.Tim Jones
Programme Director
Future Agenda
84 Brook Street, London. W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141 +44 780 1755 054
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
@futureagenda
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open
foresight initiative. It was created in 2009 to
bring together views on the future from many
leading organizations. Building on expert
perspectives that addressed everything from
the future of health to the future of money,
over 1500 organizations debated the big
issues and emerging challenges for the next
decade. Sponsored globally by Vodafone
Group, this groundbreaking programme
looked out ten years to the world in 2020
and connected CEOs and mayors with
academics and students across 25 countries.
Additional online interaction connected over
50,000 people from more than 145 countries
who added their views to the mix. All output
from these discussions was shared via the
futureagenda.org website.
The success of the first Future Agenda
Programme stimulated several organizations
to ask that it should be repeated. Therefore
this second programme is running
throughout 2015 looking at key changes
in the world by 2025. Following a similar
approach to the first project, Future Agenda
2.0 builds on the initial success and adds
extra features, such as providing more
workshops in more countries to gain an
even wider input and enable regional
differences to be explored. There is also
a specific focus on the next generation
including collaborating with educational
organizations to engage future leaders. There
is a more refined use of social networks
to share insights and earlier link-ups with
global media organizations to ensure wider
engagement on the pivotal topics. In addition,
rather than having a single global sponsor,
this time multiple hosts are owning specific
topics wither globally or in their regions of
interest. Run as a not for profit project, Future
Agenda 2.0 is a major collaboration involving
many leading, forward-thinking organisations
around the world.
Context – Why Foresight?
Future Agenda 1.0 Future Agenda 2.0
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org
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