The document discusses recent positive economic indicators in the United States, including declining unemployment claims, falling unemployment rates, and increased consumer sentiment. It notes that while GDP growth was only 2% in the second quarter, continued employment growth could help boost the economy through increased consumer spending. The president of MRINetwork comments that employment growth may be driven by increased hiring as well as higher employee turnover as people feel more confident changing jobs. Overall the document suggests the US economy shows potential for further growth in 2013 if employment levels continue rising.

1. UNITED STATES
A Decline in Productivity Could
Lead to Growing Employment and Submitted by: Joe Jiamachello, CSAM
Management Recruiters of Cleveland-Southwest
a Self-Sustaining Recovery >Experts in Global Search
(330) 273-4300 ext. 103
TopGun@MRCSW.com
In recent months, initial unemployment claims have edged down
and the four-week moving average has fallen from over 400,000
claims a year ago to less than 370,000 a week. In September,
the reported unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent crossing the
critical psychological barrier of 8 percent for the first time since
MRINetwork® Analysis
early 2009. U.S. consumer sentiment has actually reached a five
year high in October according to the University of Michigan Finding top talent that isn’t trying to be found requires
index. constant surveillance and proactive network-building.
They aren’t reading your father’s want ads anymore.
VOLUME V | | ISSUE 10
“There is good reason to look at the economic data and say
If you currently have a critical need or a nagging
that the workforce situation continues to improve,” says opening, we would welcome the opportunity to
Rob Romaine, president of MRINetwork. “People continue evaluate the details and scope of your position. Direct
to see friends and neighbors going to work and nothing will search for a professional who is happy, successful
rebuild sentiment faster than that. Consumer debt, which is and currently employed may be the best solution to
increasing after years of consecutive quarterly declines solve your staffing problem.
shows that people have more confidence in their jobs and
Call: Joe Jiamachello - (330) 273-4300 ext.103
in their economic future."
change jobs at the rate they once did. The U.S. quit rate fell
Adding weight to the deluge of economic figures, GDP grew at
as low as 1.2 percent in late 2009, but has since recovered to
an annualized rate of 2 percent from 1.3 percent in the second
1.6 percent. The rate among workers who feel overworked or
quarter of the year. The figure was more positive than many
under-compensated is understandably even higher.
economists projected, yet it still is unlikely enough to pull growth
Nov. 2, 2012
in 2012 as a whole over 2 percent. Such growth, though, is not
typically enough to drive substantial improvements in “Even if a company isn’t cutting its staffing levels, it
employment markets, and certainly not enough to push likely is losing employees to churn at a higher rate
unemployment down half a percent in two months. Yet, that isn’t today than they were two years ago,” says Romaine.
necessarily cause to think that either the employment or GDP “While though the recession managers might have
figures are incorrect. tried to cover those losses with existing staff, today
companies have reached a point where most positions
vacated need to be backfilled. If a salary lasted in the
Since about 2008, the number of employees voluntarily leaving
budget through the recession, it was a position worth
their jobs fell significantly as people didn’t want to, or couldn’t
keeping filled.”
If hiring is increasing, however, that could very well help
add buying power to the economy just in time for the
holiday season, giving a possible boost to fourth quarter
GDP.
The United Kingdom recently experienced a similar
situation where employment was growing while GDP was
shrinking. The counter cyclical employment growth was
puzzling to many economist giving it names like 'the
employment paradox' and the 'economic puzzle.' Whatever
the cause though, the increased employment likely helped
to lift the UK economy out of recession in the third quarter.
Source: Department of Labor So whether the dog wags the tail, or the tail wags the dog,
2013 seems to be building the potential for some upside
Growth.
© 2012 Management Recruiters International, Inc. An Equal Opportunity Employer.

2. Bureau of Labor Statistics HurricaneSandy’s
Employment Summary for October 2012 Economic Impact?
The Labor Department reported that 171,000 jobs were added in One of the most common refrains heard after a natural disaster is
October while the unemployment rate rose from 7.8 to 7.9 that the rebuilding efforts will boost economic activity. Measured
percent as workforce participation increased. Positive revisions GDP benefits from rebuilding efforts, but the effect takes time and
to September and August also added a combined 84,000 does not necessarily boost economic well-being. Adding
positions to the previously reported levels. During the first 10 insurance to the process lessens the sting somewhat, but still
months of 2012, employment growth has now averaged 157,000 results in the loss of national wealth and quite possibly higher
jobs per month, about 32,000 positions a month faster than the future insurance premiums.
U.S. workforce grew over the same period last year.
Hurricane Sandy affected an area stretching from the North
Carolina coast up to Connecticut, with the New Jersey coastline
The management, business and financial operations occupations suffering a direct hit. Lower Manhattan also suffered extensive
unemployment rate fell on a year-over-year basis from 4.7 percent to flooding, which will disrupt transit for several days. Damage
3.6 percent in 2012. In late 2010, that rate had reached as high as extended further inland, with West Virginia enduring a blizzard
5.7 percent before starting to decline to its current point. The and gale force winds reaching as far west as Chicago.
bachelor’s degree unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.1 percent to
3.8 percent. While the participation rate for bachelor’s degree holders "Economic growth will likely be reduced by 0.1 to 0.3
percentage points in the fourth quarter, or $30 billion" Wells
fell during the month, exaggerating the unemployment rate’s drop,
Fargo economist Mark Vitner wrote in a note to clients.
total employment for the group actually grew by 346,000 positions,
while unemployment fell by 139,000. The total economic impact from Hurricane Sandy involves two
estimates. First is losses to personal and public property, believed
On an industry basis, growth was largely contained to the private to be around $40 billion. Second is the decrease in short-term
service-providing sector, though specialty trade contractors did add economic activity, also likely to be reduced by around $30 billion
16,800 jobs during the month. Retail trade added a seasonally in the fourth quarter, but economic activity will be bolstered by
adjusted 36,400 positions leading up to what is widely expected to be more than that during 2013, as personal, and public property is
a strong holiday shopping season. Food and drinking places added repaired and replaced.
22,900 jobs, while healthcare added 30,500 positions.
Early assessments of damages from Hurricane Sandy span a
This most recent report is clearly one of the best yet recorded in wide range. Early estimates of insured property damages were
2012 and many of its underlying figures seem to add more put in the $5 billion to $10 billion range by Eqecat1 and between
foundation to the stability of the labor market and the economy. $7 billion and $15 billion by AIR Worldwide.
Not just more employment is evident, but better employment:
full-time positions, four-year degreed employees, and many in "Moreover, the extensive damage to infrastructure is less
professional fields. likely to be fully insured. We see property losses
somewhere near the mid-point of the $25 billion to $55
billion range. We would stress, however, that damages
are still likely accruing," the economist noted.
The cleanup, repair and reconstruction of homes, buildings and
automobiles damaged or destroyed by Hurricane Sandy do add to
GDP, however, and will likely provide a modest boost to
economic growth in 2013.
"We estimate reconstruction could add around 0.2
percentage points to growth in the first and second quarters
of 2013," Vitner added.
Final Thought from Joe
Make a Job Offer That They Can’t Refuse
If you’ve found the perfect candidate for your open position, you need to offer the job in a way that encourages that person to accept
it. Of course, the specifics of the job will matter to the recruit, but so will your attitude and approach when making the offer:
 Don’t leave a message or send an email. Get the candidate live on the phone or in person so you can convey your enthusiasm.
 Make it personal. Be specific about why you chose him and what you believe he has to offer your company. Recall details from the
interview process.
 Listen. Gently ask questions about the status of the recruit’s concerns (these likely came up in the interview), the timing of his
decision, and other organizations he may be considering.
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