The document summarizes the key impacts of the financial crisis on the Bulgarian economy between 2008-2009. It notes that while Bulgaria was initially less affected, the global economic slowdown starting in late 2008 had significant negative effects. GDP growth declined substantially in 2009 across most sectors. Unemployment rose while inflation remained low. The banking sector saw higher interest rates and weaker credit growth. Government measures helped mitigate impacts but uncertainty remained high.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Slight optimism outshines numerous challenges
As 2016 rolls to a close, the Ukrainian economy is finding stronger footing. The pace of recovery remains slow, but it looks sustainable and the chances of a meaningful acceleration in 2017 are high. Inflation is still in the high single digits, but a hike in regulated utility tariffs should boost it to near the NBU’s 12% target by year-end. The FX market is nearly balanced and the NBU is taking advantage of slight surpluses to replenish reserves. Ukraine’s external accounts look reasonably strong but they still pose a risk to the economy; any external shock could trigger market jitters. Smooth relations with the IMF and other IFIs remain a key precondition for the recovery of investor and domestic consumer confidence.
Real estate market outlook belgrade 2011Zanasipovac
The Belgrade office market saw zero new supply in the last 12 months as speculative construction has been postponed. Demand remains historically low but stabilized in the first half of 2011 compared to the previous year, with small to medium sized transactions dominating. Vacancy rates remain high due to oversupply and weak demand, though absorption of vacant space is expected to be slow but steady over the next two years as new supply remains limited and demand improves gradually. The market recovery depends on strengthening of the local economy and business environment.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, December 2016DIXI Group
The document summarizes Ukraine's economic situation and 2017 budget. Key points:
- Ukraine adopted a state budget for 2017 consistent with IMF parameters, but significantly raised minimum wages posing risks to stability.
- Possible policy changes under the new US administration create uncertainty for Ukraine.
- GDP growth is estimated at 1-1.5% in 2016 and projected to be 2% in 2017. Inflation ended 2016 at 12.4% and is projected to decrease to high single digits in 2017.
- The budget projects a deficit of 3% of GDP, in line with IMF targets, and will rely heavily on borrowing to finance expenditures.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
In February 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% month-over-month. Oil prices rose 3% while UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity prices declined between 3-10% from the previous month. The report provides an overview of movements in prices for oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity in February and discusses factors influencing these markets such as supply and demand fundamentals as well as geopolitical issues.
Highlights:
- Economic growth in Latvia is gathering momentum
- Household savings in banks on the rise
- Surplus in the current account for third consecutive quarter
In Focus:
- About Latvijas Banka's inflation forecast revisions in March and June 2017, by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Slight optimism outshines numerous challenges
As 2016 rolls to a close, the Ukrainian economy is finding stronger footing. The pace of recovery remains slow, but it looks sustainable and the chances of a meaningful acceleration in 2017 are high. Inflation is still in the high single digits, but a hike in regulated utility tariffs should boost it to near the NBU’s 12% target by year-end. The FX market is nearly balanced and the NBU is taking advantage of slight surpluses to replenish reserves. Ukraine’s external accounts look reasonably strong but they still pose a risk to the economy; any external shock could trigger market jitters. Smooth relations with the IMF and other IFIs remain a key precondition for the recovery of investor and domestic consumer confidence.
Real estate market outlook belgrade 2011Zanasipovac
The Belgrade office market saw zero new supply in the last 12 months as speculative construction has been postponed. Demand remains historically low but stabilized in the first half of 2011 compared to the previous year, with small to medium sized transactions dominating. Vacancy rates remain high due to oversupply and weak demand, though absorption of vacant space is expected to be slow but steady over the next two years as new supply remains limited and demand improves gradually. The market recovery depends on strengthening of the local economy and business environment.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, December 2016DIXI Group
The document summarizes Ukraine's economic situation and 2017 budget. Key points:
- Ukraine adopted a state budget for 2017 consistent with IMF parameters, but significantly raised minimum wages posing risks to stability.
- Possible policy changes under the new US administration create uncertainty for Ukraine.
- GDP growth is estimated at 1-1.5% in 2016 and projected to be 2% in 2017. Inflation ended 2016 at 12.4% and is projected to decrease to high single digits in 2017.
- The budget projects a deficit of 3% of GDP, in line with IMF targets, and will rely heavily on borrowing to finance expenditures.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
From ELANA Trading: Macroeconomic and Market Outlook 2015 „Bulgaria: Back on ...ELANA Group
This research report offers a thorough view on the major macroeconomic trends in Bulgaria, looking also into all internal and external factors such as crisis in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Greece turmoil. The outlook includes a snapshot of the Bulgarian stock market and its movers & shakers as well as ELANA Trading analysts top picks.
Some analysts points:
- We are cautious for 2015, but looking for a GDP growth pick up in 2016.
- Factors to watch during in 2015 would be the first decisive moves for reforms of the new coalition government, Greece and the crisis in Ukraine.
- The recent capital market decline provides good buying opportunities in various sectors as banks and financial services, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, etc.
- Upcoming IT IPO to boost market vitality.
In February 2016, the Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 1% month-over-month. Oil prices rose 3% while UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity prices declined between 3-10% from the previous month. The report provides an overview of movements in prices for oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity in February and discusses factors influencing these markets such as supply and demand fundamentals as well as geopolitical issues.
Highlights:
- Economic growth in Latvia is gathering momentum
- Household savings in banks on the rise
- Surplus in the current account for third consecutive quarter
In Focus:
- About Latvijas Banka's inflation forecast revisions in March and June 2017, by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
"Highlights":
* Macroeconomic recovery expected in 2017
* Budget deficit target met; financing of priorities in 2017
* Stable growth in both loans and deposits
"In Focus":
* The tourism industry in Latvia as a Mirror of the Economy, autore: Linda Vecgaile
After two years of recession, Russia's economy is projected to return to growth in 2017 as higher wages boost consumption and lower interest rates support investment. However, structural issues continue to hinder diversification, and the recovery remains dependent on stable oil prices. Fiscal and monetary policy should be further eased to support the recovery, though fiscal space is limited without economic reforms. The strength of the recovery will be constrained by a lack of structural reforms and poor business climate inhibiting diversification from oil.
The document provides an overview of global markets in the 4th quarter of 2015. It discusses economic and market conditions in key regions:
- The US economy saw upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP growth and a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, but manufacturing contracted. Global M&A reached record levels and the Fed raised interest rates.
- Growth remains weak in Europe and unemployment is over 10%, leading economists to expect the ECB to further ease monetary policy. Slower Chinese growth has reduced exports, particularly of manufactured goods.
- Other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are in recession amid falling commodity prices and a weaker global economy. A political crisis in Brazil has intensified as impeachment proceedings began
Geopolitical Events|COVID19|Canada and the World| March 11, 2022paul young cpa, cga
This document provides an agenda and summaries on various geopolitical and economic topics, including inflation, stock markets, wealth, COVID-19 cases and deaths, vaccinations, employment, GDP, and supply chains. It also includes summaries of audit reports on Canada's pandemic response and discussions of crisis management, the "new normal" economy, and preparing for the next pandemic. The document synthesizes information from various sources on these important issues.
The document summarizes a research paper on why Azerbaijan needs strategic reform of its foreign policy towards the European Union. It notes that Azerbaijan's economy has been negatively impacted by decreased oil prices, as oil/gas accounts for over 90% of exports. Closer ties with the EU could help diversify Azerbaijan's economy and overcome the current downturn. The EU is Azerbaijan's main trading partner and investor. Stronger collaboration in areas like energy, trade, finance, visa liberalization, tourism and labor could stimulate economic diversification in Azerbaijan and improve standards. However, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict poses an obstacle. In conclusion, EU assistance has benefited sectors in Azerbaijan, and a new agreement could further economic ties.
The Latvian economy experienced slower GDP growth of 1% in 2016 due to delayed absorption of EU funds, but fundamentals remain robust. While industrial production and exports exceeded records, the labor market continued improving. The 2016 slowdown was temporary and GDP growth is expected to rebound in 2017. To accelerate convergence with Western Europe, the focus should shift to supply-side reforms in public institutions, education, and healthcare to strengthen potential GDP growth.
- Mongolia experienced strong economic growth of 11.7% in 2013 driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies following a slowdown in FDI and coal exports.
- Inflation rose to 10.4% due to currency depreciation and stimulus policies. The current account deficit narrowed but remained high at 27.4% of GDP.
- Growth is forecast to moderate to 9.5% in 2014 and recover slightly to 10% in 2015, while inflation declines, as policies tighten to address pressure on foreign reserves.
This document is the April 2016 edition of the World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund. It finds that the global economic recovery remains too slow and warns of increased downside risks. The outlook projects continued moderate global growth of 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017, below historical averages. Advanced economies are expected to see lackluster growth while emerging markets face difficulties like weak commodity prices and capital outflows. The report examines topics like the slowdown in global trade and capital flows to emerging markets. It also analyzes the macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms in advanced economies.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
The document summarizes regional economic prospects in the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) regions. It finds that while the regional economy contracted 2.3% in 2020, the recovery is now gathering pace. Industrial production and retail sales have largely recovered. Vaccination rates have increased and mobility has returned to pre-pandemic levels. The recovery is supported by strong exports and rising commodity prices, though tourism-dependent economies remain challenged. Growth of 4.2% is projected for 2021.
The Ukrainian currency lost another 1% against the dollar last week. A corruption scandal weakened the government but also strengthened its position by allowing it to portray itself as reformist. Ukraine had a rare current account surplus in December of $418 million due to lower natural gas imports, but the surplus is not expected to be sustainable. Total public debt rose to 80.6% of GDP by the end of 2015, double the level from two years ago.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
This document outlines Antonia Ficova's PhD research project on the impact of the debt crisis on the Visegrad economies. It provides an introduction and literature review on the eurozone debt crisis and its effects in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. It summarizes the situation in each country during the crisis, including deficits, debt levels, inflation, and public opinion regarding euro adoption. The methodology section outlines the research objectives, questions, data collection techniques, and timeline.
This document provides an economic overview and analysis of Ukraine. It discusses Ukraine's sovereign credit ratings, key economic indicators, and IMF funding. Recent political developments including Normandy format talks on the conflict in eastern Ukraine are also summarized. The document notes that talks did not result in a breakthrough but sides agreed to work on a new roadmap for implementing the Minsk-II agreement. Industrial production growth slowed in September while retail sales growth fell, and GDP growth in Q3 is estimated to be similar to the 1.4% rate in Q2.
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
Aldo AndreoniHead of International Department @Unicredit Bulbank
Italian Festival in Bulgaria 2010
Forum economico “Bulgaria-Italia: insieme per uscire dalla crisi”
Sofia, 7 giugno 2010
This document summarizes a research project analyzing the correlation between market power and profitability of banks in Bulgaria from 2004-2014. It finds that during the crisis, profitability was replaced by market power as the main determinant of bank strategy. Only the top two banks were able to sustain absolute profit levels, contributing 63-71% of total industry profits from 2012-2014. The crisis highlighted formation of a Bulgarian economic and banking elite, as local managers understood political and economic stories and adjusted policies accordingly. The research concludes that high market concentration allows banks to make profits by setting higher prices, and that political will and judicial quality are important for minimizing corporate crime effects on the economy.
"Highlights":
* Macroeconomic recovery expected in 2017
* Budget deficit target met; financing of priorities in 2017
* Stable growth in both loans and deposits
"In Focus":
* The tourism industry in Latvia as a Mirror of the Economy, autore: Linda Vecgaile
After two years of recession, Russia's economy is projected to return to growth in 2017 as higher wages boost consumption and lower interest rates support investment. However, structural issues continue to hinder diversification, and the recovery remains dependent on stable oil prices. Fiscal and monetary policy should be further eased to support the recovery, though fiscal space is limited without economic reforms. The strength of the recovery will be constrained by a lack of structural reforms and poor business climate inhibiting diversification from oil.
The document provides an overview of global markets in the 4th quarter of 2015. It discusses economic and market conditions in key regions:
- The US economy saw upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP growth and a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, but manufacturing contracted. Global M&A reached record levels and the Fed raised interest rates.
- Growth remains weak in Europe and unemployment is over 10%, leading economists to expect the ECB to further ease monetary policy. Slower Chinese growth has reduced exports, particularly of manufactured goods.
- Other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are in recession amid falling commodity prices and a weaker global economy. A political crisis in Brazil has intensified as impeachment proceedings began
Geopolitical Events|COVID19|Canada and the World| March 11, 2022paul young cpa, cga
This document provides an agenda and summaries on various geopolitical and economic topics, including inflation, stock markets, wealth, COVID-19 cases and deaths, vaccinations, employment, GDP, and supply chains. It also includes summaries of audit reports on Canada's pandemic response and discussions of crisis management, the "new normal" economy, and preparing for the next pandemic. The document synthesizes information from various sources on these important issues.
The document summarizes a research paper on why Azerbaijan needs strategic reform of its foreign policy towards the European Union. It notes that Azerbaijan's economy has been negatively impacted by decreased oil prices, as oil/gas accounts for over 90% of exports. Closer ties with the EU could help diversify Azerbaijan's economy and overcome the current downturn. The EU is Azerbaijan's main trading partner and investor. Stronger collaboration in areas like energy, trade, finance, visa liberalization, tourism and labor could stimulate economic diversification in Azerbaijan and improve standards. However, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict poses an obstacle. In conclusion, EU assistance has benefited sectors in Azerbaijan, and a new agreement could further economic ties.
The Latvian economy experienced slower GDP growth of 1% in 2016 due to delayed absorption of EU funds, but fundamentals remain robust. While industrial production and exports exceeded records, the labor market continued improving. The 2016 slowdown was temporary and GDP growth is expected to rebound in 2017. To accelerate convergence with Western Europe, the focus should shift to supply-side reforms in public institutions, education, and healthcare to strengthen potential GDP growth.
- Mongolia experienced strong economic growth of 11.7% in 2013 driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies following a slowdown in FDI and coal exports.
- Inflation rose to 10.4% due to currency depreciation and stimulus policies. The current account deficit narrowed but remained high at 27.4% of GDP.
- Growth is forecast to moderate to 9.5% in 2014 and recover slightly to 10% in 2015, while inflation declines, as policies tighten to address pressure on foreign reserves.
This document is the April 2016 edition of the World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund. It finds that the global economic recovery remains too slow and warns of increased downside risks. The outlook projects continued moderate global growth of 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017, below historical averages. Advanced economies are expected to see lackluster growth while emerging markets face difficulties like weak commodity prices and capital outflows. The report examines topics like the slowdown in global trade and capital flows to emerging markets. It also analyzes the macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms in advanced economies.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
The document summarizes regional economic prospects in the EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) regions. It finds that while the regional economy contracted 2.3% in 2020, the recovery is now gathering pace. Industrial production and retail sales have largely recovered. Vaccination rates have increased and mobility has returned to pre-pandemic levels. The recovery is supported by strong exports and rising commodity prices, though tourism-dependent economies remain challenged. Growth of 4.2% is projected for 2021.
The Ukrainian currency lost another 1% against the dollar last week. A corruption scandal weakened the government but also strengthened its position by allowing it to portray itself as reformist. Ukraine had a rare current account surplus in December of $418 million due to lower natural gas imports, but the surplus is not expected to be sustainable. Total public debt rose to 80.6% of GDP by the end of 2015, double the level from two years ago.
Bullard Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017AtoZForex.com
St. Louis President and Chief Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank James Bullard addresses the Fed US Macroeconomic Outlook 2017 during an International Distinguished Lecture at the Australian Center for Financial Studies.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2019Latvijas Banka
This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
This document outlines Antonia Ficova's PhD research project on the impact of the debt crisis on the Visegrad economies. It provides an introduction and literature review on the eurozone debt crisis and its effects in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. It summarizes the situation in each country during the crisis, including deficits, debt levels, inflation, and public opinion regarding euro adoption. The methodology section outlines the research objectives, questions, data collection techniques, and timeline.
This document provides an economic overview and analysis of Ukraine. It discusses Ukraine's sovereign credit ratings, key economic indicators, and IMF funding. Recent political developments including Normandy format talks on the conflict in eastern Ukraine are also summarized. The document notes that talks did not result in a breakthrough but sides agreed to work on a new roadmap for implementing the Minsk-II agreement. Industrial production growth slowed in September while retail sales growth fell, and GDP growth in Q3 is estimated to be similar to the 1.4% rate in Q2.
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
Aldo AndreoniHead of International Department @Unicredit Bulbank
Italian Festival in Bulgaria 2010
Forum economico “Bulgaria-Italia: insieme per uscire dalla crisi”
Sofia, 7 giugno 2010
This document summarizes a research project analyzing the correlation between market power and profitability of banks in Bulgaria from 2004-2014. It finds that during the crisis, profitability was replaced by market power as the main determinant of bank strategy. Only the top two banks were able to sustain absolute profit levels, contributing 63-71% of total industry profits from 2012-2014. The crisis highlighted formation of a Bulgarian economic and banking elite, as local managers understood political and economic stories and adjusted policies accordingly. The research concludes that high market concentration allows banks to make profits by setting higher prices, and that political will and judicial quality are important for minimizing corporate crime effects on the economy.
Housing price determinants and the price cycle in bulgariabulgarianproperties
The past decade was very dynamic for the real estate sector throughout the world and especially in Bulgaria, which was often ranked in top 3 of fastest-growing property markets.
This document summarizes Mongolia's recent macroeconomic conditions and banking sector trends. It notes that Mongolia's GDP growth has slowed in recent years due to weak commodity prices and currency depreciation. The banking sector has seen rapid growth in loans and deposits but this growth has now stopped. Non-performing loans have risen due to the economic downturn and now stand at 7% of total loans. Several initiatives have recently been implemented to strengthen Mongolia's financial sector regulations and governance.
The document discusses several forecasts for Bulgaria's economic growth, inflation, and unemployment for 2017-2020 from the EC and IMF. The World Bank forecast expects GDP growth to slow to 3.0% in 2019 and 2.8% in 2020. Some analysts predict continued stable growth around 3.1-3.4% in 2019 while others foresee a slowing to 3.0-3.1% due to weakening external demand. Low wages contributing to labor shortages and inflation pressures also pose challenges for Bulgaria's economy.
2009 Q1: Feature on Budget Sustainabilityeconsultbw
The document summarizes Botswana's economic situation in early 2009 during the global recession. It notes that Botswana was hit hard by slowing world trade, which reduced demand for its major exports of diamonds, copper-nickel, and tourism. The country experienced high unemployment in the mining sector, falling government revenues, and deficits in its trade balance. While global growth is expected to resume later in 2009, the recession's impacts will persist for several years with risks of prolonged stagnation. The summary provides context on Botswana's economy and trade.
This document provides an overview of Bulgaria and its economy. Some key points:
- Bulgaria has a population of 7.3 million people and its currency is the lev, which is pegged to the euro. It has been a member of NATO and the EU since 2004 and 2007 respectively.
- Bulgaria has a well-educated workforce, low costs of doing business including favorable tax rates and rents, and a strategic location providing access to key European and Middle Eastern markets.
- The economy has grown in recent years and outperformed the EU average. Unemployment is decreasing and inflation is low. The government maintains fiscal discipline with a low debt level.
- Major industries include manufacturing, trade, mining, and tourism
The Mongolian economy grew at a rapid pace in the second quarter of 2011, expanding 17.3% year-over-year. Unemployment declined from 13% in December 2010 to 8.7% in June 2011, while real wages in the informal labor market nearly doubled between December 2010 and June 2011. Inflation rose to 11.4% year-over-year in July, driven by increased government and private spending. Exports grew for commodities like coal, while imports increased substantially to support mining and infrastructure projects. Overall the economy remains strong but rising inflation poses risks to continued poverty reduction if not addressed.
The document provides forecasts for the Italian NPL and UTP transaction market and servicing industry for 2020 and 2021. It finds that:
1. The NPL ratio in Italy is expected to increase to 7.3% in 2021 from 6.2% in 2020, due to expected higher NPE inflows in 2021 as a result of the 2020 economic downturn.
2. The NPL transaction market is expected to remain dynamic with €34 billion in transactions projected for both 2020 and 2021. Unsecured portfolios are forecast to make up the largest share of transactions in 2020 at 31%.
3. The servicing industry stock of NPEs to manage is expected to grow significantly in 2021, potentially
Despite GDP being flat in Q2, downside risks to growth still exist. Three key factors pose risks: (1) low FDI due to global risk aversion will impede growth, (2) government spending cuts to narrow the fiscal deficit will put pressure on the economy, and (3) weakening domestic demand from rising unemployment and limited lending will negatively impact private consumption. Flat GDP also came from a large drop in investments and consumption. Surveys were mixed with consumer confidence improving but business climate declining. The current account deficit is adjusting due to falling imports outpacing exports.
The global economy continues its recovery led by emerging markets, while advanced economies growth remains weak. Core inflation in major advanced economies is moderating, but rising in emerging markets. The Indian economy grew around 7.2% in 2009-2010, led by private consumption, government spending, and investments. However, inflation accelerated sharply due to rising food and fuel prices. While credit growth improved, high government borrowing and rising inflation will pose challenges to managing monetary policy going forward.
The document provides an overview of the monetary policy strategy and implementation in Moldova. It discusses: [1] key economic indicators for Moldova; [2] the institutional framework for monetary policy including the central bank objectives and decision-making structure; and [3] conclusions about the efficiency of monetary policy in Moldova.
2007. Vladimir Cupic. Banking and Leasing in Serbia. CEE-Wirtschaftsforum 200...Forum Velden
The document summarizes banking and leasing in Serbia. It provides an overview of the Serbian macroeconomic situation including GDP growth, balance of payments, credit boom, inflation, exchange rates, and fiscal and monetary policy. It then discusses the banking sector, including its aggregate balance sheet structure, income statement, market composition, and products. Finally, it briefly mentions the leasing sector.
Implementation of APRM programme of action on Benin interim reportDr Lendy Spires
The present report assesses the achievements of 2009 in relation to actions
earmarked for the establishment of Good Governance in the country. The report, which relates to the 2009 APRM Report, deals with, apart from
the Codes and Standards, the objectives defined in the NPOA. Consequently, it begins with a general review of the implementation of the latter and, where necessary, identifies relevant factors specific to the country and other factors that have resulted from the mainstreaming of the NPOA in the national development process.
ELANA Trading research: Bulgarian Banking Sector H1 2014 ELANA Group
ELANA Trading analysis of the Bulgarian Banking sector in the period of first half of 2014. The research report covers the events of the banks run in June, options and scenarios by the end of 2014 as well as lending activity of all banks, loan structure, credit quality, deposits, financial assets and foreign funds, dynamics of interest rates, ranking of banks, review of publicly traded banks data and focus on FIBANK and Corporate Commercial Bank.
Data as of 30 June 2014. Published 31 October 2014. If interested in update or more information, please contact senior analyst Tatyana Vasileva at tel. +359 2 81 000 24 or email: vasileva@elana.net.
This document summarizes an article from The Marxist journal about the global economic crisis. It discusses how the IMF and World Bank initially declared the recession over in 2010 but have since grown more cautious, now projecting a slowdown for the latter half of 2010 and first half of 2011. It argues the crisis is far from over, especially in advanced economies, and critiques the IMF for overly optimistic past forecasts and biases that have eroded its credibility. The document also outlines rising unemployment levels around the world, noting the crisis has disproportionately impacted workers and poor people.
This risk report from the Mongolia Economic Forum and Economic Research Institute identifies several key risks facing Mongolia's economy and development. Section I provides background on Mongolia's rapid economic growth over the past 15 years, with GDP increasing 10 times nominally and 2 times in real terms. Section II identifies four main risks: 1) boom-bust economic cycles driven by commodity price and policy fluctuations can cause volatile GDP growth, inflation, and currency depreciation; 2) the "resource curse" from overdependence on mining risks instability; 3) environmental risks threaten sustainable development; 4) increasing political risks may destabilize the country. The conclusion is that managing these interconnected risks will be important for Mongolia to develop stably into the
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
How is Mortgage Lending Influencing the Economic Growth in AlbaniaEditor IJCATR
Banks in Albania have been playing an important role in providing credit to the households especially to the
housing sector and thereby contributing to the aggregate demand in the sector. Moreover, Albanian banks also extend
various types of loans against the individuals and corporate before the financial crisis. After the crisis the banks become
more restricted due to increase of non-performing loans as well as the macroeconomic volatility which is higher in
emerging economies like Albania. In my study I will focus on the influence of mortgage loans and nonperforming loans
in the country economic growth during the interval 2008-2013 that corresponds with the after crisis period.
Moldova has a population of around 3.58 million, with 58.7% living in rural areas. Poverty is widespread, especially in rural areas where 42% live below the poverty line. The economy relies heavily on remittances which account for around 26% of GDP. GDP grew by 6% in 2007, but the structure of the economy remains uneven with slow restructuring of industry and agriculture. High levels of poverty and economic dependence pose ongoing challenges.
1. Financial Stability WorkshopFinancial Stability Workshop
CENTRE FOR TECHNICAL CENTRAL BANK COOPERATIONCENTRE FOR TECHNICAL CENTRAL BANK COOPERATION
DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK (22.02.2010 – 26.02.2010)DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK (22.02.2010 – 26.02.2010)
Author of the presentation: Yordan Radev, expert in the Payment systemsAuthor of the presentation: Yordan Radev, expert in the Payment systems
oversight division, Bank Policy Directorate at the Bulgarian National Bankoversight division, Bank Policy Directorate at the Bulgarian National Bank
2. 16 Feb 201016 Feb 2010 BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANKBULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK 22
CONTENTS:CONTENTS:
I. KEY MACROECONOMIC DATA OVERVIEW
II. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE
BULGARIAN ECONOMY
III. CRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURES
IV. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
3. 16 Feb 201016 Feb 2010 BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANKBULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK 33
I.I. KEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIAKEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIA
1.1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROWTH RATES:GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROWTH RATES:
According to the preliminary data for 2009 Q4 the GDP for Bulgaria is BGN 66
197 millions or EUR 33 846 millions, which makes 5.1 decrease in comparison
with 2008 on Y-t-Y basis.
This decline in the GDP data followed a consecutive Y-t-Y % increase in the GDP
in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively by 6.3%, 6.2% and 6% (or 6.2 average
increase)
The real volume of the GDP dropped in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2009 respectively
by 3.5%, 4.9%, 5.4% and 6.2% (flash estimates) in comparison with the data for
the same periods in 2008
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
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I.I. KEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIAKEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIA
GDP data per year and per quarter for the period 2000 – 2009*
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
*For 2009 Q4 figures are on flash estimates basis
0.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
30,000.00
40,000.00
50,000.00
60,000.00
70,000.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
GDP in millions
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
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I.I. KEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIAKEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIA
2.2. EMPLOYMENT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATES:EMPLOYMENT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATES:
According to the official statistics the population of Bulgaria as of 31.12.2008 is
7.6 millions of which 6,6 millions are over 15 years and 5,3 millions are in
between the age frames 15-64 years;
In 2009 Q3 the total number of employed people aged 15 and over was 3.3
millions or 49.8% of the population of the same age group;
For 2009 Q3 the rate of unemployment for Bulgaria is 6.7% of the labor force or
234.5 thousand people. In comparison with 2008 Q3 the unemployment rate for
2009 Q3 for Bulgaria has increased by 1.6% or 49.4 thousands people;
In September 2009 the average wage and salary for Bulgaria is estimated to be
BGN 594 or EUR 304, which is a 10.4% increase on Y-t-Y basis in relation with
Sept. 2008
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
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I.I. KEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIAKEY MACROECONOMIC DATA FROM BULGARIA
3. INFLATION
The annual average inflation rate for January - December 2009 for Bulgaria is 2,5%
Inflation - Unemployment rates dynamics
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
Year
%
Annual average inflation Unemployment rate
Annualaverage inflation 6.1% 6.0% 7.4% 7.6% 12.0% 2.5%
Unemployment rate 11.8% 9.9% 8.4% 6.1% 5.0% 6.7%
2004
y-to-y
2005
y-to-y
2006
y-to-y
2007
y-to-y
2008
y-to-y
2009
y-to-y
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II.II. THETHE FINANCIAL CRISISFINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THEAND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMYBULGARIAN ECONOMY
1. SINCE THE END OF 2007 AND UNTIL THE MID-SEPTEMBER OF 2008 THE GLOBAL
ECONOMIC CRISIS HAD A LIMITED IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY.
The first effect of the crisis was observed on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange with a downward trend of
indices and decreasing daily turnover due to the global uncertainty and reduced liquidity.
The increased international risk perceptions and the lower liquidity affected the Bulgarian interbank
market, where spreads started to increase versus the interest rates in the euro area.
Banks operating in Bulgaria started strengthening their lending conditions and standards and increased
their lending rates;
The uncertain environment and revision of consumption and investment plans by non-bank institutions
and households led to a lower demand for loans, particularly long-term loans and investment loans
There was a rapid decrease in inflation rates in Bulgaria, due to the fall in a number of international
commodity and fuel prices since the second half of 2008.
2.2. FOLLOWING THE LEHMAN BROTHERS DEFAULT, THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL ANDFOLLOWING THE LEHMAN BROTHERS DEFAULT, THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND
ECONOMIC CRISIS LED TO A SEVERE SLOWDOWN IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INECONOMIC CRISIS LED TO A SEVERE SLOWDOWN IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN
ADVANCED ECONOMIES AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINES IN THE VOLUMES OFADVANCED ECONOMIES AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECLINES IN THE VOLUMES OF
WORLD TRADE AND GLOBAL INPUT MARKEDLY AFFECTED THE BULGARIANWORLD TRADE AND GLOBAL INPUT MARKEDLY AFFECTED THE BULGARIAN
ECONOMY.ECONOMY.
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic Review, Issue 1, 2009, Issue 2,
2009 and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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II.II. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMYTHE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY
3. IN 2008 THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS INCREASINGLY AFFECTED
BULGARIA.
Real GDP growth in 2008 remained relatively high (at 6%). But in the Q4 the global
financial crisis impact on the economic activity in Bulgaria slowed down the growth
rate to 3.5%, followed by an industry negative growth and industrial export sales
decline;
4. AT THE END OF 2008 AND THE BEGINNING OF 2009 THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY
SUFFERED FROM AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY LEVELS AFFECTING THE
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS CONSIDERED TO BE A SERIOUS
CONSTRAINT TO THE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN ALL ECONOMIC SECTORS.
Some of the companies were forced to postpone their investment projects and the
intentions to hire more employees. At the same time boosting the production efficiency
and the reduction of expenditures play their role as a crucial instrument for companies to
counteract the crisis and mitigate its negative effects.
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic
Review, Issue 1, 2009, Issue 2, 2009 and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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II.II. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMYTHE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY
5. THE CONTINUING DECLINE IN GDP GROWTH IN 2009 AFFECTED MOST
OF THE BULGARIAN ECONOMIC SECTORS
In 2009 the economic and financial crisis led to a change in the structure of real
economic growth, with net exports of goods and services having a positive contribution
to growth, while domestic demand contributions turning negative;
The sustainability of Bulgaria’s external position was preserved in 2009 due to the
figures in the BoP and the External debt data, which followed a sustained pattern of
positive net inflows of financial resources into the Bulgarian economy, with reasonable
expectations for a decrease in the BoP CA deficit;
In 2009 interest rates on time deposits remained relatively high, but with a tendency to
start falling gradually shortly;
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic
Review, Issue 1, 2009, Issue 2, 2009 and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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II.II. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMYTHE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY
6. BANKING SECTOR, INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION PACE IN 2009
The decline in interest rates in the interbank money markets in the Euro area and in
Bulgaria could not influence positively the high lending interest rates, which reflect
the unfavorable macroeconomic environment, high risk premiums and the costly bank
depository base resources;
The tight credit approval standards and policies applied by the banking sector, the
unfavorably high lending interest rates and the uncertain macroeconomic environment
reasonably led to weak demand for loans and a sustained downward trend in credit
growth in Bulgaria in 2009;
The annual inflation rates remained at low level in 2009 Q4 and the beginning of 2010,
but with an expectation that fuel prices will begin to exert a slight pro-inflationary
pressures and no inflationary pressures anticipated on the part of domestic demand;
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic
Review, Issue 1, 2009, Issue 2, 2009 and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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II.II. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMYTHE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY
7. HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR IN 2009
The economic behavior of the Bulgarian households was highly influenced by:
o The unfavorable economic conditions in 2009;
o The worsened expectations of the economy’s development;
o The tighter consumer lending conditions;
o The higher deposit and lending interest rates;
o The higher risks of unemployment and uncertainties of future incomes
Resulting in:
o An emphasis on the importance of a timely increase of savings;
o Continued decrease in consumer demand;
o Postponing some purchases of durable goods and home repairs;
o Limited non-food expenditures
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic Review, Issue 1, 2009, Issue 2, 2009
and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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III.III. CRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURESCRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURES
1. THE CURRENCY BOARD
In Bulgaria The Currency Board regime plays a key role in maintaining the
macroeconomic stability. Its benefits as a specific regime of monetary policy are
clearly evident in the current global crisis.
The operation of the currency board is laid down in the Law on the Bulgarian National
Bank:
The operation of the currency board guarantees stability of the exchange rate, while
introducing prudent fiscal policy together with stringent banking supervision policy.
Under the conditions of the currency board BNB has no control over the interest rates
and therefore the monetary conditions in Bulgaria follow to a great extent those in the
euro area.
The main instrument used by the BNB to affect monetary conditions is the regulation of
the minimum required reserves maintained by the banks within the central bank.
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic
Review, Issue 1, 2009, Issue 2, 2009 and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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III.III. CRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURESCRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURES
2. ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN BY THE BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK TO CUSHION
THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS:
Amendments of BNB Ordinance № 21 on the minimum required reserves maintained
within the BNB by the banks:
— reducing the minimum required reserve rate to facilitate banks operating in
Bulgaria in the management of their liquidity, given the lack of efficiency in the
functioning of the world financial markets.
Amendments of BNB Ordinance № 9 on the evaluation and classification of banks’ risk
exposures and the allocation of provisions to cover credit risk and of BNB Ordinance №
8 on capital adequacy of credit institution
— anti-cyclic policy in regulating credit institutions’ activities in Bulgaria by creating
conditions that allow banks to be more flexible with their viable consumers who are
experiencing temporary difficulties in a complicated economic situation
— ease credit institutions in negotiating credit conditions and in converging with the
international practices of the more conservative approach applied so far for the
classification and loan loss provision
Source: Bulgarian National Bank research and publications, BNB periodical publications: Economic Review, Issue 1, 2009,
Issue 2, 2009 and Issue 3, 2009. Internet web page: http://www.bnb.bg
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III.III. CRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURESCRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURES
2. ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN BY THE BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK TO CUSHION THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS:
CONSERVATIVE NATURE OF THE PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS IN BULGARIA AND BNB
POLICIES:
— Higher capital adequacy requirements for banks than Basel standards;
— No help for the banks in the form of government guaranteed bonds;
— No equity participation by the government in the banks;
— No emergency liquidity assistance for the banks.
BNB IS A TARGET 2 PARTICIPANT THROUGH THE TARGET 2-BNB NATIONAL COMPONENT FOR A
BETTER INTEGRATION WITH THE EU MONEY MARKET AND A BETTER ACCESS TO LIQUIDITY IN
THE EUROZONE;
FINANCIAL STABILITY DIRECTORATE IN THE BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK:
— facilitates and coordinates the activities for the maintenance and the preservation of the financial
stability;
— conducts regular observations and analyses of the financial system and its environment, facilitates the
preparation and the conduct of macro-stress tests and the elaboration of plans for crisis situation
management;
— strives at the identification, analysis and shaping out of threats, risks and imbalances in the environment
than endanger the stability of the financial system;
— reporting on financial stability issues;
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III.III. CRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURESCRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURES
3. ECONOMIC MEASURES AND ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN TO RESTORE BULGARIAN
ECONOMY AND TO CUSHION THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS:
Measures for the maintenance of the stability of the macroeconomic system
— The currency board regime should be maintained till the entrance into the Euro zone. Putting an
emphasis upon joining ERM II and meeting Maastricht criteria;
— Maintenance of balanced budget and fight against fiscal larceny and tax frauds;
Measures for the maintenance of the stability and resilience of the financial
system
— Decrease of the inefficient expenditures in the structure of the state budget for 2009 by 15% and
second decrease by the end of 2010;
— Decrease in the number of ministers by 2 and decrease of the administrative expenses by 15%,
reorganization of the public administrations and decrease in their staff;
— Maintenance of VAT rate at 20% in January 2010;
— Fight against the corruption in the usage of the Euro funds;
— Conservative state policies towards running into new government debts;
— Actions towards the improvement of the systems for financial management and control by putting
an emphasis upon the role of the internal audit procedures and policies;
Source: Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, Resolution № 772 as of 1.10.2009 for the economic measures to restore the Bulgarian
economy. Internet web page: http://www.government.bg
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III.III. CRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURESCRISIS RESOLUTION MEASURES
3. ACTIONS UNDERTAKEN TO CUSHION THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS
Measures towards improvement of the business environment and business climate:
— Decrease in the initial capital requirements for new businesses;
— Streamlining the procedure for VAT refunding;
— Centralized management of the concession activities and strict control;
— Decrease in the quasi-tax burden by liberating the product markets regulations as a precondition for the fight
against corruption and the influence of the special interests groups;
— Development of funds for risk-capital investments and guarantee fund schemes;
—Speed up the insolvency legal proceedings, simplify the procedures, introduce mechanisms for the clearing of
obligations;
Measures for the development of agricultural production;
Measures for the development of infrastructure;
Measures for stimulating employment and social help;
Measures for the building up and development of a knowledge-based economy
Measures for the prudent and efficient European funds management.
Source: Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, Resolution № 772 as of 1.10.2009 for the economic
measures to restore the Bulgarian economy. Internet web page: http://www.government.bg
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IV.IV. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOKMACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The Bulgarian Government strives for the successful joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism
II (ERM II);
Strategic objective is the implementation of consistent policies to further increase the
resilience and flexibility of the Bulgarian economy, as well as insurance of a sustainable
convergence within the EU;
The main medium term objective of Bulgaria is the Euro-area membership, which will
provide enhanced macroeconomic stability, smooth transition from the currency board to the
euro and higher investor confidence in the Bulgarian economy;
The main medium-term goal of the fiscal policy is to maintain a balanced budget by means
of structural reforms and increased efficiency of the state;
Long-term sustainability of public finances.
Source: Convergence Programme of the Republic of Bulgaria 2009 - 2012
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THANK YOU !THANK YOU !
1. Author: Yordan Radev, expert at the Payment system oversight division, Bank
Policy Directorate, Bulgarian National Bank
2. Sources
o http://www.bnb.bg, Bulgarian National Bank;
o http://www.nsi.bg, National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria - officials figures, flash
estimates and press releases;
o http://www.government.bg, Council of Ministers of the Republic of Bulgaria;
o Economic review, issue 1/2009, Bulgarian National Bank periodical publications, BNB
economic research and projections directorate;
o Economic review, issue 2/2009, Bulgarian National Bank periodical publications, BNB
economic research and projections directorate;
o Economic review, issue 3/2009, Bulgarian National Bank periodical publications, BNB
economic research and projections directorate;
o Convergence Programme of the Republic of Bulgaria 2009 – 2012, adopted by the
Bulgarian Government on January 27, 2010;
o Republic of Bulgaria, Council of Ministers, Resolution № 772 as of 1.10.2009 for the
economic measures to restore the Bulgarian economy.
o Bulgarian National Bank, Financial Stability Directorate
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APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
QUARTER Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q3
Total population n/a 7,761.0 7,718.8 7,679.3 7,640.2 7,606.6 n/a
BG population over 15 years n/a 6,687.8 6,671.7 6,647.4 6,616.8 6,585.0 n/a
Total unemployed 411.4 391.0 328.5 288.4 215.3 177.7 234.5
Labour Force 3,237.10 3,302.80 3,310.90 3,448.00 3,521.80 3,541.20 3,514.60
Total employed 2,825.60 2,911.90 2,982.30 3,159.60 3,306.40 3,363.50 3,280.00
Males employed 1497.7 1545.6 1596.7 1686.2 1769.8 1802.3 1744.6
Males unemployed 223.2 220.0 179.0 147.8 105.5 93.4 127.0
Females employed 1327.9 1366.3 1385.7 1473.4 1536.7 1561.2 1535.5
Females unemployed 188.3 170.9 149.5 140.6 109.8 84.3 107.5
Age frames (unemployed)
15-24 80.7 84.0 67.1 51.6 43.8 35.8 48.1
25-34 111.8 95.1 78.3 70.3 40.9 38.0 47.2
35-44 85.8 85.7 77.9 69.9 52.0 42.4 57.6
45-54 97.1 90.8 75.9 61.6 49.2 37.5 52.5
55 and over 36.1 35.4 29.3 35.0 29.4 24.0 29.1
Age frames (employed)
15-24 210.6 227.0 227.2 244.5 257.7 260.9 243.3
25-34 697.5 704.5 699 741.6 745.2 714.2 698.6
35-44 797.1 836.7 878.3 909.2 958.1 993.7 954.2
45-54 778.9 795.9 801.5 831.8 879.5 888.6 877.5
55 and over 341.5 347.8 376.5 432.5 466.0 506.1 506.5
Unemployed/Employed people
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands
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APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
QUARTER Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q3
Percentage unemployed from the labour force 12.7% 11.8% 9.9% 8.4% 6.1% 5.0% 6.7%
Total employed from BG population 15 years and over 42.3% 43.6% 44.6% 47.4% 49.7% 50.8% 49.8%
Males employed from BG males 15 and over 46.8% 48.2% 49.8% 52.8% 55.5% 56.8% 55.3%
Males unemployed from the labour force 13.0% 12.5% 10.1% 8.1% 5.6% 4.9% 6.8%
Females employed fromBG females 15 and over 38.2% 39.3% 39.9% 42.5% 44.5% 45.3% 44.8%
Females unemployed from the labour force 12.4% 11.1% 9.7% 8.7% 6.7% 5.1% 6.5%
Age frames (unemployed out of the labour force)
15-24 27.7% 27.0% 22.8% 17.4% 14.5% 12.1% 16.5%
25-34 13.8% 11.9% 10.1% 8.7% 5.2% 5.1% 6.3%
35-44 9.7% 9.3% 8.1% 7.1% 5.1% 4.1% 5.7%
45-54 11.1% 10.2% 8.7% 6.9% 5.3% 4.0% 5.6%
55 and over 9.6% 9.2% 7.2% 7.5% 5.9% 4.5% 5.4%
Age frames (employed out of BG 15 and over)
15-24 19.8% 21.4% 21.6% 23.6% 25.2% 26.1% 25.1%
25-34 65.1% 67.6% 69.4% 74.3% 77.9% 78.3% 75.9%
35-44 74.8% 76.3% 77.8% 80.8% 84.3% 84.7% 83.0%
45-54 68.1% 69.7% 72.3% 76.2% 79.9% 81.1% 79.8%
55 and over 34.3% 34.8% 37.7% 43.4% 46.8% 50.6% 50.0%
Unemployment/Employment ratios
Percentage (%)
Percentage (%)
Percentage (%)
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APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
PRICE INDICES
Inflation rates on Y-to-Y basis:
CPI data, December of the previous year = 100 4.0% 6.5% 6.5% 12.5% 7.8% 0.6%
Annual average inflation rates for the current year:
CPI data, Jan-Dec of the current year
(previous 12 months = 100) 6.1% 5.0% 7.3% 8.4% 12.3% 2.8%
Inflation rates on Y-to-Y basis:
HCPI data, December of the previous year = 100 4.0% 7.4% 6.1% 11.6% 7.2% 1.6%
Annual average inflation rates for the current year:
HCPI data, Jan-Dec of the current year
(previous 12 months = 100) 6.1% 6.0% 7.4% 7.6% 12.0% 2.5%
2005
y-to-y
2004
y-to-y
Year
Price indeces
2009
y-to-y
2008
y-to-y
2007
y-to-y
2006
y-to-y
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
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APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
OTHER KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS:
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
Output 2006 2007 2008
Industrial confidence (arithmetic average of balances to replies on production expectations, order
books and stocks of finished products (the latter with inverted sign)). % 4.10 8.70 6.60
Industrial production (measure of the dynamics of the industrial production in value. The index
includes Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity, gas and water supply) yoy %ch.* 6.20 9.70 0.90
Gross domestic product yoy %ch.* 6.30 6.20 6.00
Private cosumption 2006 2007 2008
Consumer confidence (arithmetic average of balances of opinions regarding the development of
financial situation of households, general economic situation, savings and unemployment expected in
the next 12 months (the latter with inverted sign) % -34.40 -31.65 -36.60
Retail sales (Receipts from sales in 'Retail trade, repair of personal and household goods') yoy %ch.* 12.70 19.40 3.50
Private consumption (Individual final consumption = households final consumption expenditures +
government final consumption expenditures for rendered individual services to households + final
consumption of non-profit institutions serving households). yoy %ch.* 8.50 5.10 4.50
Investment 2006 2007 2008
Capacity utilization in industry (Average capacity utilization in industrial enterprises as a percent of
full capacity) % 68.40 72.58 74.90
Gross fixed capital formation (it includes the expenditures for the acquisition of non-financial fixed
assets (tangible and intangible), including the increase of unfinished construction projects) yoy %ch.* 14.70 21.70 20.40
Change in stocks (it includes: The change in stocks of raw materials, work-in-progress, finished goods
and goods for resale in the enterprises & The change in stocks of the households, result from their
unincorporated activities) % of GDP 5.80 7.00 5.00
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APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
OTHER KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS:
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
International transactions 2006 2007 2008
Exports of goods (The exports and imports of goods of the BOP Current Account covers movable
goods for which changes of ownership between residents and non-residents occur. Up to December
2006 the data on imports and exports FOB (Free on board) are based on customs declarations. From
January 2007 the data on Bulgarian trade with other EU member states are reported from the system
INTRASTAT) mln. EUR 12011.90 13511.90 15203.80
Imports of goods mln. EUR 17574.10 20757.20 23801.10
Trade balance (The trade balance reflected the difference between the imports and exports of goods in
the country) mln. EUR -5562.30 -7245.30 -8597.30
Current account (The Current Account comprises the acquisition and provision of goods and services,
income, and current transfers between the country and the rest of the world) mln. EUR -4647.80 -7274.00 -8653.10
Direct investment (net) (Direct investment covers direct investment abroad, direct investment in
reporting economy and mergers and acquisitions) mln. EUR 6021.50 8283.60 5685.00
Portfolio investment (net) (Portfolio investment stocks comprise holdings of and liabilities on equity
securities and debt securities; the latter are subdivided into bonds and notes (with an original maturity
of one year or more) and money market instruments (with an original maturity of less than one year)
mln. EUR 292.20 -518.40 -469.70
Exports of goods and services (The exports and imports of goods are reported at FOB prices and are
based on the customs declarations. The services are assessed from the data in the current account of
balance of payment, formed by Bulgarian National Bank) yoy %ch.* 8.70 5.20 2.90
Imports of goods and services (The exports and imports of goods are reported at FOB prices and are
based on the customs declarations. The services are assessed from the data in the current account of
balance of payment, formed by Bulgarian National Bank) yoy %ch.* 14.00 9.90 4.90
24. 16 Feb 201016 Feb 2010 BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANKBULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK 2424
APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
OTHER KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS:
Source: Bulgarian National Statistical Institute officials figures, flash estimates and press releases: http://www.nsi.bg
Monetary and financial indicators 2006 2007 2008
SOFIBOR (3 months) (The index SOFIBOR (Sofia Interbank Offered Rate) is a fixing of the
quotations for unsecured BGN deposits offered in the Bulgarian interbank market) index 3.69 4.90 7.14
М3 (The monetary aggregate M3 (broad money) is formed from repos and debt securities issued up to
two years (the least liquid financial instruments) together with the M2 monetary aggregate. The M2
monetary aggregate comprises the M1 monetary aggregate and quasi-money. The M1 monetary
aggregate (narrow money) includes currency outside banks and overnight deposits in national and
foreign currency (the most liquid instruments used in settlements). Quasi-money comprises deposits
with agreed maturity of up to two years and deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months
(including savings deposits). yoy %ch.* 26.90 31.20 8.80
Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs (Loans to Non-financial
Corporations and Households and NPISHs - loans to non-financial corporations (public and private) and
households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) yoy %ch.* 23.70 63.70 32.50
Exchange rate USD/BGN value 1.56 1.43 1.34
25. 16 Feb 201016 Feb 2010 BULGARIAN NATIONAL BANKBULGARIAN NATIONAL BANK 2525
APPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURESAPPENDIX: TABLES AND FIGURES
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOKMACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ASSUMPTIONS ON THE MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012
Exchange rate USD/EUR 1.4 1.45 1.45 1.45
GDP (in real terms, percentage change) – World Economy -1.2 3.1 3.5 4
GDP (in real terms, percentage change) – EU27 -4.1 0.7 1.6 2
Oil price (USD/barrel) 62.1 67.5 77 84
Six-month LIBOR on USD-denominated deposits 1 1.7 2.5 3
Three-month LIBOR on EUR-denominated deposits 1.2 2 2.8 3.5
Commodity prices[1] (2005=100) 147.4 134.1 137 134.5
Food 135 138.3 135.8 134.4
Beverages 151.7 173.5 170.3 177.5
Agricultural raw materials 94.5 112.2 113.3 111.7
Metals 119.5 140.7 143 138.1
Source: Convergence Programme of the Republic of Bulgaria 2009 – 2012; European Commission, International Monetary Fund,
Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting
Note: Assumptions are based on statistical information published as of 17 December 2009