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KIMBERLEY LHOMER
LESLIE MARECHAL
2012/13
FINAL MASTER'S THESIS
Implications of the Arab Spring on business
negotiations: the case of Egypt
Kimberley Lhomer; Leslie Marechal
S U P E R V I S O R S : F A W A Z B A D D A R / I A N S P E A K M A N
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Kimberley LHOMER
Leslie MARECHAL
FINAL MASTER’S THESIS
Implications of the Arab Spring on business
negotiations: the case of Egypt
ACKOWLEDGMENTS
IESEG SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
3, rue de la digue
59000 Lille
« L’IÉSEG n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux
opinions émises dans les mémoires ; ces opinions doivent être
considérées comme propres à leurs auteurs »
YEAR 2012/2013
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AKNOWLEDGMENTS
First of all, we would like to highlight the fact that this study was highly beneficial for both of
us. Indeed even though it represents a lot of work, we were able to meet and discuss with
professionals working in different industries which would have never been possible without
this thesis. Since the business people we have met had different backgrounds, we have had the
opportunity to discover what was going on in the Arab Region and more specifically in Egypt
at an economic, social and political level. They took time to provide us with a very interesting
insight of the current situation in the Arab region and especially on the business climate in
Egypt.
Without those people interviewed our research wouldn’t have existed. We have realized that it
is a hard time for people living in Egypt and constantly dealing with the Arab Spring in their
work. That is the reason why we are even more grateful that they have taken some time to
explain their opinions and perspectives over the situation.
Therefore, we would like to thank all the people that have agreed to be interviewed and that
were particularly enthusiastic to participate in our study.
Moreover we would like to thank Dr. Adel MEHANY, who has accepted to answer our
questions, give his perspectives on the current and future situation despite his very busy
schedule.
We would also like to underline the help of our thesis professors, Dr. BADDAR and Dr.
SPEAKMAN for their guidance and advice.
Finally we would like to thank all the professors, students and especially our relatives that
have pushed us to pursue the research on this particular subject, uniting our field of study that
is international negotiations and our personal background since we both have lived in the
affected countries. This research underlines nicely the end of our 5 years curriculum within
IESEG School of Management.
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SUMMARY
AKNOWLEDGMENTS ..........................................................................................................2
ABSTRACT ..............................................................................................................................6
1. Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................7
1.1. The Research problem................................................................................................. 7
1.1.1. Research problem of the thesis............................................................................. 7
1.1.2. Relevancy of the problem .................................................................................... 7
1.2. The Research objective................................................................................................ 8
1.2.1. Purpose of the investigation ................................................................................. 8
1.2.2. Expected contribution of our work....................................................................... 8
1.2.3. Research scope and boundaries............................................................................ 9
1.3. The Research questions ............................................................................................... 9
1.3.1. Main research question......................................................................................... 9
1.3.2. Underlying questions............................................................................................ 9
2. Chapter 2: Literature Review........................................................................................10
2.1. Conceptual background ............................................................................................. 10
2.2. The Arab Spring ........................................................................................................ 12
2.2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 12
2.2.2. Politics in the Arab World.................................................................................. 12
2.2.3. The Arab Spring................................................................................................. 16
2.2.4. The International Relations Theory.................................................................... 22
2.2.4.1. Post-Arab Spring Implications ....................................................................... 22
2.3. The Negotiation Process............................................................................................ 28
2.3.1. The pre-negotiation process ............................................................................... 28
2.3.2. Negotiating......................................................................................................... 30
2.3.3. Outcomes of a Negotiation................................................................................. 31
2.3.4. A particular case: negotiating in the Arab World............................................... 32
2.3.5. Intercultural Negotiations................................................................................... 35
2.4. Conflict management/prevention........................................................................... 37
2.4.1. Definition ........................................................................................................... 38
2.4.2. Preventing a conflict........................................................................................... 38
2.4.3. Skills needed ...................................................................................................... 40
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2.4.4. Conclusion, relevancy and weaknesses.............................................................. 41
2.4.5. Contribution of our research .............................................................................. 42
3. Chapter 3: Research Methodology................................................................................44
3.1. Conceptual model and propositions .......................................................................... 44
3.2. The Methodology ...................................................................................................... 47
3.2.1. Data collection.................................................................................................... 47
3.2.2. Relevance of our research design....................................................................... 48
3.2.3. Purpose of our research...................................................................................... 49
3.2.4. Types and sources of data .................................................................................. 50
3.2.5. Method of data collection................................................................................... 53
3.2.6. Relevancy of the method.................................................................................... 55
3.2.7. Weaknesses and strengths of the data collection method................................... 55
3.2.8. Sampling design ................................................................................................. 56
3.2.9. Measurement Instruments .................................................................................. 57
3.3. Data analysis.............................................................................................................. 58
3.3.1. Managing the data .............................................................................................. 58
3.3.2. Managing the data .............................................................................................. 58
3.3.3. Relevancy of the method.................................................................................... 59
3.3.4. Summary of the theories used ............................................................................ 60
3.4. Search of the contacts for the interviews................................................................... 60
3.5. Interview conduction ................................................................................................. 61
3.5.1. Interview methods.............................................................................................. 61
3.5.2. Interview duration .............................................................................................. 62
3.6. Description of the sample’s general profile............................................................... 63
4. Chapter 4 : The Results..................................................................................................66
4.1. Findings associated with the interviews .................................................................... 66
4.1.1. Business negotiation constructs affected by the Arab Spring............................ 66
4.1.2. Arab Spring factors that have impacted business negotiations .......................... 70
4.1.3. Future expectations ............................................................................................ 74
4.2. Results interpretation and come back to literature .................................................... 78
4.2.1. Result Discussion ............................................................................................... 78
4.2.2. Come Back to Literature .................................................................................... 83
4.2.2.1. Arab Spring Theories...................................................................................... 84
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4.2.2.2. Negotiation Theories ...................................................................................... 85
4.2.2.3. Conflict Management/ Prevention Theories................................................... 86
4.3. Managerial implications ............................................................................................ 88
4.4. Limitations and directions for future researches ....................................................... 89
5. Chapter 5: Conclusion....................................................................................................90
6. Chapter 6 : Reflection.....................................................................................................94
7. References........................................................................................................................95
8. Bibliography ....................................................................................................................99
9. Appendix........................................................................................................................102
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ABSTRACT
This thesis focuses on a very recent phenomenon that has been followed worldwide,
the Arab Spring, and its implications on business negotiations within the concerned countries.
In fact the Arab Spring has truly impacted international relations, local politics and the
economy. It is then a logical reasoning to entail that this movement has also affected business
and more specifically business negotiations.
In order not to scatter ourselves, we have decided to focus on one country that has
heavily been affected by this wave of change: Egypt.
Although the essence of this thesis will be to prove that the Arab Spring has in fact
affected business negotiations in Egypt, we have to assess two main steps to explain this
result. Firstly we need to find out what constructs of business negotiations have been affected
since the Egyptian revolutions of 2011. Secondly we have to link those changes to specific
political, economical or social aspects of the Arab Spring to evaluate the consequences to that
recent change of pace in business negotiations. Consequently we should expect to find a
positive link between the Arab Spring phenomenon and business negotiations with the case of
Egypt.
In the event of a positive link between those two constructs, the goal will then be to
estimate future perspectives regarding business negotiations. It would be very interesting to
ask ourselves and the people involved in this wind of change if the implications they have
witnessed are likely to last in the long-term or not. The results of those implications could
have consequences over business negotiations within the Arab Region. The continuation of
our thinking-process would be to ask ourselves if the challenges of the Arab revolutions
modify the traditional negotiation process in the countries that have experienced the Arab
Spring.
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1. Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1. The Research problem
1.1.1. Research problem of the thesis
The research problem we have decided to work on is the effect on this recent movement
called the “Arab Spring”. We will be focusing on the economy of those countries but more
specifically on the negotiation conditions of foreign multinationals and local companies
implemented there. In that sense, we have decided to focus on a country that has heavily
experienced the revolutions: Egypt.
With the Arab Spring, we have witnessed some major political but also economical and social
changes. It would therefore seem logical to evaluate the effects of this phenomenon on Egypt
in order to determine what constructs have been affected.
We will then assess the way people uses to negotiate in Arab countries as it is important for
business people to have an overview of the current negotiating conditions when dealing with
companies based in Egypt. However we will also evaluate the changes in business
negotiations affected by the Arab Spring factors.
Following this and thanks to the people we will interview, working for either multinational or
small to medium companies based in the concerned country, we will be able to draw a
conclusion and determine at which level this former flourishing economy has been impacted.
As a result we might also be able to foresee the possible future prospects.
1.1.2. Relevancy of the problem
The problematic set down as a part of our thesis is relevant as the Arab Spring has truly
affected the international and business relations within the concerned region. According to the
Arabian Gazette, three of the reasons for this up-rise of protests and riots against the
authoritarian regimes are the need of people for economic and employment progress, the need
of democracy and the need of social balance. On one hand we have witnessed a movement
based on and ideas of economical liberalism, which advocates international negotiations,
trades and a market economy. However, on another hand, due to the violence and proportion
of the events, many expatriates were sent back to their countries or were sent to more stable
countries. Moreover most foreign companies are very reluctant to invest in those countries.
For instance, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit: Egypt’s Country Forecast in
January 2009 (p.11-13), the GDP of Egypt has decreased from 7.2% in 2008 to 1.5% for this
year.
Furthermore the position and the decisions often made by the international community have
had an important impact on the relations between the foreign companies implemented in those
Arab countries and the local people. Diplomatic international relations have often affected
international negotiation and vice versa.
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Finally, an even more recent phenomenon as a consequence of the Arab Spring that can
severely impact business negotiation especially with foreign companies and business people is
the rise of political Islamism. Can political Islamism act as a government opening their
economy to foreign direct investment and multinational companies? Will intercultural
negotiations be affected by the rise of political Islamism?
1.2. The Research objective
1.2.1. Purpose of the investigation
The purpose of our investigation is to study and understand in what way this phenomenon
called the Arab Spring has affected business negotiations between people working either for
foreign companies or local companies implemented in one of those affecter countries (in our
case: Egypt). With the position of the international community over the former existing
issues, the current unstable state of the Arab Region, the rise of political Islamism and the
future objectives, it is clear that the economic and political context as well as business
negotiations have taken an important turn.
1.2.2. Expected contribution of our work
The Arab Spring is a recent phenomenon we have found very few articles and papers that
have been achieved on the important turn-around that these countries are currently facing.
Even less authors have been talking about the impact of these changes on business
negotiation, this is why we believe our research is important and could lead to other possible
researches.
Our thesis should then bring answers to the questions and confusions about the Arab spring
causes and effects on the business environment as a whole but especially on business
negotiations and on possible future business expectations. In order to complete successfully
our goal, we will take contact with concerned people such as expatriates and locals located in
Egypt in order to analyze the links between these testimonies.
Therefore, our thesis will first rely on an accurate literature reviews in order to explain the
concept of business negotiation models that will help us understand its basics and the previous
researches that we will be able to compare to our study. It is important, for us, to understand
well the theories on business negotiations in general before relating it to the Arab Spring.
Then, after the results of the interviews, we will provide a research model. This qualitative
research will allow us to determine a specific approach for our study.
Finally as we have both lived in Arabic countries for many years this research is very
important to us. What’s more our field of study is international sales and negotiations.
Therefore we have chosen a coherent research matching both our professional field of interest
and a personal-related subject. It is even more interested as this research has not been studied
yet.
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1.2.3. Research scope and boundaries
Our study will take into account the relationships between the Arab spring and business
negotiations within multinational and local companies located in Egypt. The goal is to
determine the links between them, that is to say: the causes of the Arab spring; the effects on
business negotiation model; its several constructs including negotiation process, negotiation
context, negotiation parties and negotiation outcomes; and finally the possible future
perspectives. The qualitative research will mainly be based on interviews of people working
in such an environment and that have witnessed this wind of change. (Frey and Oshi, 1995).
The main boundary that we will face is time. Since we wish to contact several people who
have been working in these countries at a specific period of time, we need to be very
organized and contact them as soon as possible in order to be able to perform the most
interviews possible. Our main contacts will be located in Egypt where we will be able to
witness the real impact of the Arab Spring on business negotiations.
1.3. The Research questions
1.3.1. Main research question
Our main research question is the following:
What are the implications of the Arab Spring on business negotiations in Egypt?
1.3.2. Underlying questions
This research questions brings up three underlying questions:
 What constructs of business negotiations have been affected by the context of the Arab
Spring?
 What factors of the Arab Spring have affected business negotiations within the
concerned countries?
 What is to be expected in the future?
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2. Chapter 2: Literature Review
2.1. Conceptual background
There are several themes relative to our research. We have decided to divide our literature
review into four main themes that constitute our research thesis. The objective of this
literature review is to provide a conceptual framework useful to develop our thesis.
In order to know what concepts would be most useful to highlight as a part of our thesis, we
have started to ask ourselves basic questions about the Arab Spring phenomenon. Three
questions have appeared while doing researches on this event.
Figure 1.1- Basic questions about the Arab Spring phenomenon
Indeed, during the researches on the Arab Spring, we have seen that the phenomenon was
often qualified as a social change. This is the reason why we have decided to elaborate on this
concept. Then, we have related it to our area of research and asked ourselves how we could
negotiate in such an environment. This part has brought out different aspects of a negotiation
process. Finally, we have foreseen that in such a framework, conflicts and hostilities might
appear. That’s why we decided to provide concepts about conflict management and
prevention.
We then have decided to extract the important concepts appearing in these questions because
they are useful to provide a deep analysis of all the variables we need to take into account for
our research. We have focused on four variables that need to be explained by theories. We
chose the Arab Spring; Social, political & economic change; Negotiation and Conflicts
prevention/management concepts that we will explain in this literature review.
ARAB SRING
How do we define change?
How to negotiate when dealing with such a phenomenon?
In this context, how to prevent and deal with possible conflicts?
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Arab Spring
Revolutions
Economical,
political and
social
change
Prospects
Negotiations
Process
Intercultural
theories
Conflicts
For this first variable we will focus on the Arab Spring in order to fully understand this
phenomenon: how it all began and what are the theories related to it. As result we will explain
what triggered these uprisings and provide a summary of its particular characteristics.
Then we will focus a main aspect of our research study: the negotiation process, in order to
understand its definition and different steps. We will also highlight how to negotiate in Arab
countries such Egypt and the specificities of intercultural negotiation in those cases.
Moreover, another important concept of our study is conflict management and prevention that
the main actors of the negotiation face due to the recent event that is the Arab Spring. Finally,
it is important to interest ourselves on the political, economic and social change that this Arab
spring led to. That is why, definitions, theories and the consequences of sustainable change
will be reviewed.
Figure 1.2- Arab Spring and negotiation contexts
Therefore the goal of our thesis is to find the link between Negotiations and the Arab Spring
that’s to say, what constructs of the negotiation have been affected by the Arab Spring, what
factors of the Arab Spring have influenced negotiation processes and finally what could be the
possible outcomes of both concepts.
We will now draw an overview of the few previous researches.
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2.2. The Arab Spring
2.2.1. Introduction
The case of Mohamed Bouazizi’s death on December 17th 2010 has brought up a revolution
that was never expected. According to Cédric Dupont and Florence Passy’s article, “The Arab
Spring or How to Explain those Revolutionary Episodes?” (2011) published in the Swiss
Political Science Review, this Tunisian street seller burned himself alive after being bullied in
public by government policemen. This act against oppression, autocracy and freedom of
expression has triggered a revolution that has surprised international communities. It has
created a worldwide interest for this movement and has caused a huge local change in
political, economic and social factors. This event is now known popularly as the youth’s
revolution or the Arab Spring.
These protests have started in Tunisia following the tragic event regarding Bouazizi’s death
and have spread to most Arab countries such as Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria,
Kuwait, Morocco, and so on. However, this phenomenon has certain particularities that have
made it so worldwide mediatized. One of its particularities is that this revolution has spread
thanks to social networks which have never happened in the past for any existing revolutions.
People have connected which each other in order to meet and fight for what they believed in.
As a result those people concerned have the particularity to feel empowered by those
collective actions. It is quite a change compared to previous revolutions. Indeed, people use to
feel defenseless when they were dealing with problems regarding the current power and
government, as it was powerful and indestructible. However, with this collective action
people felt that a change would be possible.
We will now ask ourselves about the variables that have led to this wave of uprisings, their
characteristics and what are the possible outcomes in the Arab region. It is important to
understand that these unexpected events that have influenced the daily life of people in the
concerned countries.
2.2.2. Politics in the Arab World
2.2.2.1. Geography
Before getting deeper into our analysis, we need first of all to define what the ‘Arab World’
is. Indeed, K. Imomotimi Ebienfa and P. Kuro Inokoba (2012) define this term as “Arabic
speaking states, territories and populations in North Africa and Western Asia, popularly
known as the Middle East with the exception of Israel” where oil brings most of their income
with approximately half of the world’s oil and a third of the world’s gas reserves according to
The Washington Post on February 2011. It is composed of 22 countries with around 422
million people including more than 200 million under 25, starting from the Atlantic Ocean to
the Arabian Sea, and from the Mediterranean Sea to Africa. The dominant religion of the
Arab world is Islam.
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Figure 1.3- Effect of the Arab Spring on the Arab Region
Source:http://svennie.no/2012/04/04/
The countries representing this part of world are: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Somalia, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Most of these countries are under the governance of monarchies or authoritarian regimes not
taking into account democracy. Indeed, according to Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F.
Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, and Tewodaj Mengistu,
in “Democratization in the Arab World : Prospects and Lessons from around he Globe”
(2012), the Arab World includes pure authoritarian regimes containing seven monarchies
(Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), and, before the Arab Spring,
six republics ruled by autocrats (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia Syria, and Yemen). This part
of the world never had consolidated democracies, however, it includes few hybrid regimes
such as Iraq, Kuwait and Lebanon, which can be referred as democratizing regimes.
Michael Herb (1999) characterizes Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as “dynastic
monarchies” as they are countries where the power is shared within a family. For Bahrain, the
power is passed through primogeniture, and for the other countries it is the family who
decides who will be the next monarch. For the “non-dynastic Arab monarchies”, the leader
selects his successor. The republics tend to be difficult to analyze as they are complex and
“associated with personalist, single-party and military dominated regimes” (Laurel E. Miller,
Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, and
Tewodaj Mengistu, in “Democratization in the Arab World : Prospects and Lessons from
around he Globe” (2012)).
We have seen that it is a region, where authoritarianism is present, and as a consequence
where political rights and civil liberties have been put to the background that’s to say that the
government wouldn’t allow fundamentals liberties or free elections for example that we will
detail more in the next part.
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2.2.2.2. Authoritarian Regimes
Most previous studies regarding the Arab world involve Authoritarianism, as it is probably
the most important term characterizing governments of the countries located in this area. This
concept has been defined by Linz (1976) as “Political systems with limited, not responsible,
political pluralism, without elaborate and guiding ideology, but with distinctive mentalities,
without extensive nor intensive political mobilization, except at some points in their
development, and in which a leader or occasionally a small group exercises power within
formally ill-defined limits but actually quite predictable ones.” It means that they are regimes
where the ruler has absolute power; nobody including the constitutions and laws are powerful
against this type of leader. They dictate the people, hence the term “dictator”. Basically, it
means that these countries weren’t free or with a very limited freedom. Linz (1976) proposes
a classical definition of authoritarianism, which will be, later on, reformulated by c. He
highlights the existing restrictions in political pluralism. Indeed, a certain point of pluralism
may be accepted but the regime can be qualified as authoritarian if its structure excludes the
participation of forces of opposition. Therefore, one of the advantages for the authoritarian
leader is the absence of free competitive and legitimate elections that would let people voting
for him through a referendum. In this optic, we can say that the functioning of an authoritarian
regime is built on several practices such as repression, alliances, transactions and collusions
with society.
In these countries, governments were using their power at their will ignoring populations, and
shutting Medias down for them not to see reality. Prisons were full of political prisoners were
torture was a common punishment. Camau (2006) adds at this list the image of leadership.
Indeed, the legitimacy of this regime builds itself on the enigmatic relationship the leader
creates with its population. He would use the country’s history to present himself as a mystic
figure sent to save populations that cannot be replaced.
As Maya Bhardwaj (2012) states in “Development of Conflict in Arab Spring Libya and
Syria: From revolution to Civil War”, scholars were surprised that such revolts occurred
because Authoritarianism was a regime that would make these uprisings impossible because
the state would have blocked every attempt to revolt against the government. Leaders were
expanding their power at the expense of others, ruling over institutions designed to constrain
them. As Goldstone (2011) writes, these leaders were keeping people “depoliticized and
unorganized” as they were making sure to be elected again, controlling the Medias, and
intimidating citizens that made sure populations wouldn’t react. There was little hope for
these countries to transit to a democracy one day.
2.2.2.3. Egypt under Hosni Mubarak
In 1981, the vice president Hosni Mubarak succeeds to the president Sadate after his death by
murder claimed by a group of jihadists’ officers that didn’t want a peace treaty between Egypt
and Israel. The new Egyptian leader chooses to continue the strategy of its predecessor that
had begun in 1976: an offensive against intellectuals such as Islamism, feminism and free
press.
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On the political scene, Hosni Mubarak supported the resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood
(the Islamist party) and radical movements as J.D. Cloutier states in “Mobilisations populaires
et changements politiques en Afrique du Nord: Une analyse du Printemps arabe en gypte
et Tunisie” in 2012. Opposing parties were authorized to have syndicates, professional
organizations and associations, but were pushed away from the political scene, even if in
1977, a law on political parties stated that « no party can be created on a class or a religion ».
Cloutier writes as well that this measure was taken after the apparition of a series of protests
following the possibility of a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, where Islamists and
Communists were imprisoned. Hosni Mubarak’s political party, the National Democratic
Party (NDP) was relying on security forces to discourage any form of opposition.
As a form of opposition, we can include the Muslim Brotherhood, launched in 1928 by the
imam Hassan al-Binna. Over time, this party began to be more and more popular and
influenced other movements in the Arab World. This movement was in favor of the
instauration of an Islamic Caliphate in Egypt and advocated a society in which the Koran
defined laws (Sharia). After an attempt to kill the president Nasser in 1954, the brotherhood
was banished for the second time from the Egyptian political scene. However, in the 1970s,
the group claimed that he would stop violence in order to be able to participate again. While
Mubarak was at power, he took into account their request and allowed them to present to the
legislative elections as Cloutier declares in his “L’Egypte sous Moubarak” chapter.
The maximum level of political pluralism controlled by the regime was reached in 2005.
Protestations were inciting the regime to make concessions that were rather limited and
illusory. In September, was organized the first pluralist election and president universal
suffrage. The Muslim Brotherhood took 20% of the parliament seats and the difficulty of the
Mubarak’s party incited the regime to turn back. Later on, more periods of corruption and
repression arose. Mubarak’s Egypt can be seen as a model of authoritarianism where laws
have been suppressed and put back at ease. To justify these changes, an imaginary fight
against terrorists was put up making him capable of arresting « suspects ». By doing so,
Mubarak was able to control the Medias and ban manifestations as well as public reunions.
Furthermore, it is important to note that police plays an important role.
When we take a look at the economic sector, we can notice that the rise of liberal economic
reforms and the decrease of public expenses highly contributed to destabilize several sectors.
As a consequence, unemployment has increased and purchasing power as well as work
conditions have decreased. Before the protests, young people were the most affected by those
issues. The youth unemployment rate, from 18 years old to 29, had reached 25% and half of
the young people employed were over-qualified and over-educated for the job they had. On
another hand, military expenses were highly important for Mubarak and created a deficit in
Egypt‘s budget. In 2010, it was estimated that $340 million were spent in the civil sector for
military equipment.
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2.2.3. The Arab Spring
2.2.3.1. Origins
It seemed that just not far back in times these countries would remain permanent autocratic
countries. We can therefore interrogate ourselves about the reasons that have pushed
thousands of people to gather in the streets.
On December 17th
, movements appeared following the self-immolation of a Tunisian street
seller after being bullied in public by government policemen, on December 17th 2010.
Mohammed Bouazizi started to provide for his family when he was 10 by selling fruits and
vegetables on a market in order for his siblings to afford their education. Government forces
would sometimes take some of his products for no legitimate motive. On December 17th
2010,
Mohammed Bouazizi was publicly humiliated by a group of policemen after refusing to hand
them one of his scales. Following this incident, he tried to seek justice by going to a local
municipality but nobody listened to him. Therefore, in order to protest, he has set himself on
fire. He is now the symbol of the Arab Awakening, as he could not handle anymore the
oppression of the Tunisian authoritarian regime. On December 22nd
, another young Tunisian
electrocuted himself in the street. This added another wind of anger for people protesting,
especially for young people. At that time, Tunisian president Ben Ali made a mistake by
going to the hospital to see the young Bouazizi. His visit was perceived as an insult in
Tunisia.
Following this act of despair, thousands of people gathered in the streets of Tunisia, which has
been possible thanks to the economic growth and technological change, manifesting against
unemployment, corruption, censorships, inflation and lack of freedom. Within a month, the
political regime of Ben Ali collapsed.
In a press conference in the 1950s, the former US President Dwight Eisenhower analysed
what he called the “falling domino principle”. He states that if “You have a row of dominoes
set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it
will go over very quickly. So you could have a beginning of a disintegration that would have
the most profound influences.” This metaphor takes into account dominoes represented by
countries and the contagious element can be referred to communism. He related it to countries
aligned with USSR and the United States during the cold war. Although this president was
making an allusion to communism, the basic idea of this principle is much broader. Indeed,
for example, Roosevelt used this theory to describe fascism and this idea has been also used to
justify the American intervention in Iraq where Bush believed that establishing a democracy
in Iraq would have a reverse domino effect and lead to a democracy in the Middle East.
It is therefore important to note that the basic logic of this principle is the same in our case. It
highlights that changes in a country’s political institutions spreads to neighboring countries
and affects their institutions the same way. We can relate this theory to the one of the Arab
Spring where dominoes can be assimilated to authoritarian regimes falling one after the other.
As we have seen, we can compare these regimes to falling dominos, as Eisenhower did with
communists’ regimes. The fall of Ben Ali can be compared as the first domino that fell. After
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this event, Egypt followed Tunisia by protesting and overthrowing Mubarak within two
weeks, and the second domino fell.
These events inspired other neighboring countries across the region leading for Libya and
Syria to civil wars. The Libyan civil war led to the fall of Muammar Gaddafi whereas Bashar
Al Assad still remains at the head of the country.
According to the Oxford dictionaries, we can define the Arab Spring as “series of anti-
government uprisings in various countries in North Africa and the Middle East, beginning in
Tunisia in December 2010”. These movements have appeared following the self-immolation
of a Tunisian street seller after being bullied in public by government policemen, on
December 17th 2010.
The goal of this phenomenon is to make important changes within these concerned countries
in order to implement a liberal democratic system of governance (freedom of expression,
respect of human rights, democracy, economical boost, etc.). This phenomenon spread to
other countries and that is what we can now call the ‘Arab Spring’: the will of switching the
regimes for democracy leading to the changes that has been occurring in these countries.
2.2.3.2. First Contestations in Egypt
Compared to Tunisia, the Egyptian system seemed permissive and offered Egyptian a little
more liberties. In the individual liberties ranking, Egypt was in third position after Kuwait and
Lebanon writes Jon B. Alterman, (2011) in « Drawing the Wrong Lessons ». In fact, the
Egyptian government understood it was impossible to dominate Medias due to the arrival of
new technologies despite its will to control print media it as much as possible.
In these past few years, portraits of the President were less and less seen in the Egyptian
Medias as the government controlled it very closely and protests for injustice were growing.
In 2012, David M. Faris, a political science professor at Roosevelt University, declared in
“Beyond Social Media Revolutions: The Arab Spring and the Networked Revolt” that in 2008
we could count more than 160 000 Egyptian blogs, where 30 000 were about politics. In
January 2010, more than 2.4 million people had a Facebook account, and more than 70% had
satellite television, which allowed them to have access to uncorrupted information networks
such as Al-Jazeera. Nevertheless, partial censorship persisted and police used Internet to
counter opposition movements and stop homosexual regrouping. In June 2013, police officers
had beaten to death the owner of a blog.
In another perspective, Marie Duboc (2011) stated in “La contestation sociale en gypte
depuis 2004. Précarisation et mobilisation locale des ouvriers de l'industrie textile” that
numerous workers strikes appeared between 2006 and 2007, leading to 614 strikes a year.
This was linked to the massive electoral fraud in 2006, the decrease of purchasing power
because of the inflation (6.5%), as well as the fear of the consequences of public companies
privatizations.
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These important worker mobilizations, due to their number of participants and their intensity
were a sign of the mobilization potential of “factory networks” including workers as well as
their colleagues, their families and their friends. These networks facilitated the participation
of movements by connecting individuals and change general perception on people about
political action.
2.2.3.3. The Revolutions
Indeed, several factors contributed to these mass uprisings.
First of all, one the factors that helped was the governments’ political pluralism policy.
Indeed, Egyptians were offended by the frauds in the election of November 2010.
Then, two violent events targeting Christian Egyptians led to thousands of people protesting
in the streets. On the 1st
of January, the Medias around the world informed us of an explosion
near a church killed 23 people and brought the population to ask for the dismissal of
ministers. Ten days later, a police officer in the south of the country killed six Christians. This
incident provoked a wave of uprisings, in Cairo and in Salamut.
Finally, the victory of Tunisians against Ben Ali and its authoritarian regime gave them hope
and power to protest through collective actions. Young Tunisian and Egyptian activists shared
strategic information and advice.
The 25th of January 2011, eleven days after the escape of Ben Ali, Egyptians went in the
streets of Suez and Cairo to manifest their anger and against poverty. This happened the same
day than the Police National day. They were heading to the Tharir Square, the emblem of the
Egyptian independence, located in the center of Cairo. At that emblematic place, they made
the promise to keep fighting until the Mubarak regime, which had been at power for 30 years,
falls.
Following those movements, some of the demands were granted such as the dismissal of
ministers, a minimum wage, and a limit for the mandate of the President.
For once, people that were opposed to the regime were highly empowered in comparison to
the number of police officers. By changing the protests locations via mobile phones and
Twitter, they managed to counter the police’s strategies. When we take a look at these
manifestations, we notice that nothing had the possibility to discourage populations.
The 10th
and 11th
February, strikes and uprisings occurred everywhere in the country.
Celebrities, intellectuals and representatives of the Egyptian Trade Union Federation
contributed to make more people manifest in the streets. That same day, Mubarak made a TV
announcement, which is the last public apparition of the authoritarian leader. He declared
leaving a part of its responsibilities to Suleiman. Deception led to anger and a new wave of
protests appeared demanding the departure of the President.
As a result the Council decided to end Mubarak’s power within Egypt. Military leaders sent
Suleiman on television to announce that the executive power would, from now on, belong
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between their hands for a period of time. The events following December 17th
2010 were
called by different names such as “revolts”, “uprisings”, “manifestations”, “social
movements” or “collective actions”.
According to Hillman (1995), a revolution (turn around, from the Latin ‘revolution’) is a
“fundamental change in power or organization structures that takes place in a relatively short
period of time.” It is usually preceded by severe crisis or a high degree of dissatisfaction in a
country. Indeed, studies point out the fact that international aspects, economics and politics
would be possible factors for revolution due to pressures on these countries. The structure of
today’s economy, with an increased competition, would have been a cause for these uprisings
to happen. Malik and Awadallah (2011) highlight the fact that populations have become more
educated at younger age with time. Therefore while the educational situation of the population
and their knowledge was evolving, there was a clear mismatch with the economic structure, as
it didn't respond to the needs of this growing knowledgeable population. Indeed sixty percent
of this population younger than 30 years old has high aspirations and expectations that
weren’t likely to be achieved with the current government and policy.
This political and economic environment has particularly impacted the beginning of the
uprisings. These events are the result of globalization, socio-political and economic factors.
Countries were refusing to meet their population’s expectations affected by the global
recession and crisis. This lack of security and human rights respect made people stand up for
their rights.
Moreover, according to the African Development Bank Group (2011), it is important to note
the low standard of living in the Arab World. For instance the World Bank estimated that 19%
of Egyptian lived with less than 2 dollars a day in 2005 and that 50% of these people were
considered as poor. That means that a fluctuation in prices or price volatilities particularly has
an impact this population. Moreover we can notice a huge gap between the poor population
and the wealthy population living in the Middle East and more particularly in Egypt. Power
and Money are often associated.
However, different authors disagree about the essence of the Arab Spring that’s to say
whether these events represent a revolution or not. That is the case of Bayat (2011), an expert
on Middle East social movements and politics, which calls this phenomenon “Revolutions”, a
mix between reform and revolution. He argues that by manifesting, populations are pushing
the several governments to reform their actual and existing institutions instead of creating new
ones. The change would therefore happen within the existing framework.
On the other hand, Eisenstadt (1978) argues that a revolution occurs when a state or a country
is not making proper use of its resources. This can be linked to the Middle Eastern and North
African region where inhabitants were unhappy with the current economic situation.
2.2.3.4. Social Media Impact
Furthermore, it is important to note the most unique feature of this Arab spring: the
importance of social network and new technologies in this political mobilization. This
phenomenon is very different from any previous revolutions and makes the Arab Spring
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unique. Modern technology was definitely a catalyst in those protests with social media
websites such as Facebook, Wikileaks and Twitter. It has not only permitted to express freely
their discontent without the repression of the government but it has allowed demanding
immediate change. Social Medias were used as an organization tool for people to meet and
protest all together but also to have the international community attention. People were first
informed of this “Arab Spring” via Facebook by receiving major invitations to protest in
cities’ streets, by witnessing massive status updates and complaints about the Egyptian
governments. The “cyberwar” has started as soon as Tunisian Mohamad Bouazizi passed
away with Facebook pages such as “Mohamad Bouazizi: son of revolution”, “Bouazizi
United” or “Bouazizi Tunisian Hero”. It is important to note that, without this new technology
as a mean of communication, in countries where Media freedom of expression is more than
limited, this popular movement would not have had such an important impact over the
international Medias and therefore over the world. Ironically, the Libyan president’s son
possessed the largest internet service provider in Libya and Bashar Al Assad was president of
the organization that implemented internet in Syria.
We can conclude that a revolution was on its way because of conflicts, mostly between
governments and the masses. Their vision wasn’t shared by all and because of capitalism and
international economic, political factors pressuring these countries. These countries were
preconditioned to have uprisings, the events of the 17th
of December 2011 was just something
that added up to their frustration and spread.
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Figure 1.4 - Theoretical framework of the Arab uprisings
International Pressure
International Factors
Satisfying conditions for revolutions
Unforseen events
Revolutions
Economy, Politics, Strategies, Competitions…
Disparities between vision of
government and populations,
Authoritarianism, Lack of
freedom…
Death of merchant in Tunisia
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2.2.4. The International Relations Theory
As Kant (Perpertual Peace essay, 1795) suggested, countries where democracy exists are
generally more peaceful within the concerned countries but also with other democratic states.
In fact this is due to the fact that democracies work on resolving issues by negotiating and
communicating instead of going to war or through violence. On the contrary autocratic and
dictatorship regimes are more likely to use force in order to take advantage of something or
threat. This is what has mainly happened in those countries where the different actors of those
concerned Arab regimes have taken advantages on the population who “are supposed to
follow their rules”. The second reason why democracies are less likely to go to war is that
they are responsible of the cost of the war. Moreover as the cost is almost always more
important than the benefits, it is therefore logical that war is the last likely options in case of
tensions. But the most important feature of democracy that is advocated by the Arab revolts is
the freedom of expression and the limited power of the government. In fact most dictatorship
that have lasted all those years, have perpetuated because of the lack of external knowledge of
the population. This seems fairly obvious as in such countries where the freedom of press is
controlled and the access of Internet is clearly limited, especially for the older generation.
However with the amazing rise of young generation under 25 using Internet and social
network, there has been a clear realization of the discomfort.
2.2.4.1. Post-Arab Spring Implications
A question that arises from these different points of views is will the different uprisings one
day lead to democracy, as their future is still blurry? The future of these regions can’t be
easily drawn due to their complexity and to the numerous variables involved in this
phenomenon. Solid predictions can’t be made. The Arab Spring protests have expressed a
rejection of authoritarian systems, which allowed the monopolization of political power by
corrupt regimes. Old regimes such as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, were swept away. But the
problem is that these strong movements did not have any coherent political program nor
proposed new socio-political model. Nowadays, in addition to persistent structural problems,
the uncertainties keep increasing. In the international community mainly, but also internally,
these uncertainties include the rise of Islamism in power.
These uprisings have created mix results and stories, some are successful and others are
frustrating. However, thanks to them, people don’t feel defenseless anymore and by uniting
forces they can make a difference. The most visible outcome is the fall of dictators in Egypt,
Tunisia and Libya, peacefully or by the use of civil war.
2.2.4.2. Origins of Change
We can define two major triggers that could lead to a change. They are quite opposed to each
other but are necessary for a change to be done. These variables are dissatisfaction and
inspiration. As long as people are unhappy with the current situation and that there is a
discontent in the present period, a change can in fact occur. When individuals are convinced
that the present state isn’t for their best interest and that they constantly dissatisfied, it is a
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sign that something is wrong. In that case change can happen. Some social, political and
economic factors can provoke dissatisfaction such as corruption, restriction, lack of human
rights, political instability, lack of economical perspectives… According to Fawzia Zouari
(2011), the uprisings that appeared in 2011 had for objective to show to the world these
structural weaknesses.
2.2.4.2.1. Theories of Change
Theories of Change concern 3 macroeconomic factors. First of all, there is a political factor
where governments play a big role in the society, then a social, which highly influences
change and finally an economic factor, notably highlighted by Marx (1859). His point of view
was that people don’t wait for nature to resolve its problems by itself, but that these
individuals would stand up, take control and regain their freedom. It relates to Marx’s theory
of conflict (1859) stating that change is a necessity to initiate a social change and deal with
inequalities.
Goldstone (2011) defines appropriate conditions for the success of a revolution: “For a
revolution to succeed: The government must appear so irremediably unjust or inept that it is
widely viewed as a threat to the country's future; elites (especially in the military) must be
alienated from the state and no longer willing to defend it; a broad-based section of the
population... must mobilize; and international powers must... refuse to step in to defend the
government.” We find the concept of elites alienation. This condition is inherent to the
success of a revolution as it is the basis of the changes of the condition of access to the
participation of the political system.
The Theory of Social Movements states that individuals or groups can organize an effective
social change by encouraging or discouraging change via social movements. It offers a
framework to understand how and why individuals gather to solve a problem.
Tilly and Tarrow (2006) identify protest, collective action and contention as 3 forms of
political struggle. They define protest as a manifestation of objection, using words or action to
face certain situations. Collective action takes place when people act in order to fulfill their
interest, and contention are actions that a party demands that could affect multiple other
parties’ interests. Moreover, they state that people with close relationships facilitate the
beginning of a social movement. However, it is important to note that in the Arab Spring case,
new media such as satellite television and Internet-based social media have been an important
factor. They encouraged collective action by decreasing costs to make everyone aware and
were easier to diffuse information.
The Marxism theory (1859) believes that these social movements were the reason of unsolved
conflicts in societies related to economy. It concerned the movements of society through
various stages of conflict. That would mean that people are more likely to protest if they
aren’t satisfied with their current economic and living conditions.
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This brings up the collective behavior theory (Smelser - 1963), which was an early forerunner
of this social movement theory. This theory states that a social organization shares values and
norms and when a social norm changes it leads to a psychological strain necessary to push
people to take action. However another author, Touraine (1981), explains that a change and a
social movement isn’t necessarily a response to a situation but a way to get to a desired social
change.
2.2.4.3. Sustaining a change
Now that the change in these regions is occurring or has occurred, it is important to know
what can be done to sustain this change. These events have given hope to populations located
in these countries that believe that a change is possible. However, only 2 countries seem to be
in a political transition while the others are still fighting for freedom.
Sustaining a change reduces instability. Lewin’s 3 step model (1947) ensures that the change
is sustained that is why he uses the ‘Refreeze’ step to support and maintain the change. That
involves giving rewards to people that adhere to the new values and culture. In order for the
change to be sustained, it is important that something is in place to maintain it in order to
eliminate confusion.
Previously, we have seen all the aspects of the Arab Spring, its origins, its characteristics, its
implications, what is to be expected in the future the fact that it's an important social change.
The important step now if we want to find the impact of the Arab Spring on the negotiation
process is to analyze what is a negotiation exactly. We need to understand the different
concepts and steps in order to be fully able to relate it to the Arab Spring. Negotiation is a
particular dialogue between 2 or more parties that have specificities worth being highlighted.
By having a clear overview of each of them, we will able to draw our interviews to know in
which aspects and at what extent the Arab Spring has affected them.
2.2.4.4. Social Implications
For Lewin (1947), ‘the intentional process of a radical social change demands continual
tension or crisis’. A social change implies an alteration of certain behavior patterns or
structure that is progressive durable at an economic, social, cultural and demographic level.
Lewin developed in the 1940s a model that still applies nowadays where he describes the
three-steps process of a change. He refers his theory as the unfreeze, change and refreeze
model.
The unfreeze stage deals with preparing people to accept that the change is a must. That
involves pointing out the drawbacks of the old system and the advantages the change will
give. To do so, the beliefs, behaviors, values and habits would have to change that is the
reason why this step is the most difficult one. The next step concerning the change is
successful as long as people understand how the change benefited them, they need to embrace
it and participate actively. Finally, in the last stage, the refreeze one, the change is taking
shape and people are starting to internalize it. This stability is necessary to refreeze the
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change. If not, a new change wouldn't be possible in the future. It is important to take into
account that a change is a difficult process because it makes people get out of their comfort
zones and creates a conflict with their behavior and habits.
2.2.4.5. Political Changes
The day after President Mubarak left the political scene; important political cleavages
appeared in the Egyptian society. Subsequently interreligious violence in different regions
rapidly arose which rapidly broke the mystic idea of unity. These acts, taking into account
people supporting the Mubarak regime, former security agents or salafist affiliates showed
that Egypt would have difficulties dealing with such divisions in the population. Moreover,
there was a lack of unity in the same political parties and opposition groups.
The actual situation in Egypt is very difficult to assess, as there are problems regarding
accurate information given but also constant changes happening within the government.
Indeed, by now the Egyptian government has changed approximately five times.
More generally, when we evaluate the actual political consequences of the Arab Spring, we
notice that in certain countries such as Tunisia and Libya, leaders were replaced by popularly
elected bodies or by a transitional government. These countries have organized free and fair
elections with high participation rates. Those methods have benefited Islamic movements that
had been obstructed while presenting themselves to elections. When we take a look at Egypt’s
parties during the first elections of the parliament we can see that it has increased. The
Freedom and Justice Party led by the Muslim Brotherhood has won by 46% followed by the
radical Salafis party. However, this elected parliament was dissolved. Regarding the
implementation of a new constitution, Egypt has made a draft that has been approved at 64%.
As a result number of parties in Egypt has increased. The moderate Islamist Ennahda won the
elections with 41% of the votes. This created tensions with the Salafis, and it will need to be
taken into account during the upcoming years. However, politics in the concerned countries of
the Arab Spring is still very unstable.
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Figure 1.5- Egypt’s first Islamist led parliament
Furthermore it is important to note that in Syria a civil war is still happening causing disorder
and humanitarian disaster. The situation following the revolutions is unpredictable. According
to the United Nations, it has costs more than 60 000 lives so far and made flee hundreds of
thousands. Moreover it has increased tensions with countries surrounding and in relations
with Syria such as Lebanon where opposition between the pro-Assad and the ones that are
opposed were reinforced.
In Jordan, Morocco and Algeria, leaders have stayed but they have been forced to take
immediate measures in order to bypass or limit the action of the Arab Spring and respond to
social pressures. Regarding the protests in Bahrain and Kuwait, they have been stopped by the
military intervention of Saudi Arabia.
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2.2.4.6. Economic Changes
Figure 1.6- Economic impact of the Arab Spring
It is important to note that the Arab Spring has had an important impact over the economy of
this particular region. Most GDPs have decreased. What’s more the economy of the region
had also suffered from the Euro crisis due to their economical partnership.
Furthermore production was stopped due to political upheaval: the oil production in Libya has
stopped, there was a paralysis in Egypt’s production process due to strikes, the mining sector
in Tunisia declined…
Moreover it is important to highlight the fact that these countries were highly touristic and
that tourism was an important part of their GDP, especially for Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco,
Jordan and Lebanon. This industry fell by one quarter for each country except for Egypt and
Tunisia where it has been more substantial and has dropped by 40%.
Finally, another important economical change was the decrease of the FDI (Foreign Direct
Investment). This is mainly due to the reluctance of foreign investors to inject money in those
countries following the instable context.
In consequences globalization, competition, strategies and scarce resources have made
complex, sectors, societies and countries. We can characterize the Arab Spring by being a
change in population’s lives, at a national and international level. Therefore it is important to
know what are the different steps to accomplish a change and how can it be sustainable. The
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Arab Spring wouldn’t be necessary and useful if the aim wasn’t to achieve a sustainable
change in people’s lives.
We started by giving an overview of the situation in the Arab countries including Egypt
before the uprisings. After that we highlighted the main characteristics of the Arab Spring: its
origins, the events and the current situation at economical, political and social levels. Since
we are trying to see the relationship between this phenomenon and business negotiations, we
need to develop the negotiation concept. We will therefore divide the analysis of this next
theme into four steps: the pre-negotiation process, the negotiations process itself, the
outcomes and the particular case of negotiating in the Arabic World.
2.3. The Negotiation Process
In this part we have decided to further focus on negotiation process as a whole than on
intercultural negotiation analysis for our study; the Arab Spring may have affected every
aspect of the negotiations.
There are several definitions of negotiations. Robinson and Volkov (1998) define negotiations
as “a process in which participants bring their goals to a bargaining table, strategically share
information, and search for alternatives that are mutually beneficial”. On another hand
Putnam and Roloff (1992) defined negotiation as “a form of communication that centers on
perceived incompatibilities and focuses on reaching mutually acceptable agreements”.
2.3.1. The pre-negotiation process
In order to focus on actual negotiations it is crucial to take a look at the antecedent variables
of the negotiation. Our study will first introduce the main components of the pre-negotiation
process and their importance for a sample of negotiators. This is very relevant to answer a part
of our questions as we will need to evaluate if each ones of the pre-negotiation characteristics
have evolved with the context of the Arab Spring. Moreover, we need to know how the
people we interviewed used to prepare themselves for negotiations and how do they now
prepare actual and future negotiations. It is possible that the context of political, social and
economical change has modified some of the pre-negotiation characteristics when preparing
to deal with another negotiating party. We need to understand which ones have been affected,
how and why.
A research conducted by Peterson and Shepherd entitled “Preparing to negotiate: an
exploratory analysis of the activities comprising the pre-negotiation process in a buyer-seller
interaction” (2010) identified, thanks to a sample of people facing daily business negotiations,
the different characteristics in a pre-negotiation process according to four main phases:
Information gathering activities, formulation activities, strategic development activities and
preparation activities. Moreover, some activities were added by marketing faculty members,
senior marketing management and study respondents that participated in the research.
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According to those activities, the different 172 respondents were asked to select which
activities they performed and did not performed in order to draw a table of pre-negotiation
characteristics frequency following each of the four phases. The results being that those
preparations are useful in several contexts, although the research has omitted an important
context being the fact to negotiate in a strained atmosphere. However an important result was
that the more a person is prepared for negotiation, the more he had chances of succeeding in
this negotiation.
Our proposition in this case, and due to some discussions we have had before going through
with our thesis, is that with this context of change and tensions, as some companies do not
believe in a stabilization of the countries while others focus on long-term deals in order to re-
launch the economy, negotiation are facing more and more difficulties. Subsequently the
frequency of pre-negotiation characteristics such as intelligence gathering, formulation and
strategy may have increased to be even more prepared than they used to in order to face the
increasing difficulties. We will then present in details those activities identified by Peterson
and Shepherd (2010) in their academic study.
2.3.1.1. Information Gathering Activities
Information gathering activities is, as stated, the gathering of information about the other
negotiating party. It is in fact crucial, in order to benefit the negotiation context and process
but also to have an advantage, to have information about the other party. It includes activities
such as the collection of primary data (the client, the company you are dealing with, etc.),
secondary data (the industry, the reputation, policies, annual reports, etc.), evaluating market
conditions, knowledge of the negotiating party’s intentions and alternatives, a review of
previous contact/relationships, possible strategies, understanding the decision-making process
of the customer.
2.3.1.2. Formulation Activities
While information gathering activities is more about anticipating what the other negotiating
party might do or not do and its possible decisions and strategies, formulation activities is
more about preparing our own actions and alternatives. It includes more or less the objectives,
the possible issues that might come up and their limit levels, the bargaining mix, the
responsibilities, the deadlines, the role of each person who attending the negotiation and the
BATNA. The concept of BATNA has been developed by Roger Fisher and William Ury in
the book Getting to YES: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In (1981). The acronym
means Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement and is defined as “the alternative action
that will be taken if your proposed agreement with another party result in an unsatisfactory
agreement or when an agreement cannot be reached”.
As a result the formulation phase is about anticipating the other party’s doubts and questions
but also about preparing to have the best possible negotiation.
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2.3.1.3. Strategic development activities
For this pre-negotiation activity, it is necessary to prepare and foresee the possible strategies
to be used while negotiating. First of all depending on the number of people involved, it is
crucial to assign roles such as who will speak when during the negotiation, who will intervene
on competitive aggressive strategies, who will intervene for cooperation, etc. Moreover it is
important to be aware of possible trades-off. In this case people must be prepared to make
some concessions and give some elements in return for something else, it is then important to
define what could be given away. For Baarslag Hindriks and CM Jonker (2011), without
concessions, a negotiation wouldn’t exist; it’s a matter of give and take. Indeed some
strategies are characterized by making concessions. For example, Boulware and Conceder’s
strategies are based on steady concessions all along the negotiation. Finally it will also be
important to be aware of the presence of a possible third party that will have a role in the
negotiation.
2.3.1.4. Preparation activities
This last phase is the less frequent phase according to Peterson and Shepherd’s study (2010).
However it includes some very important elements that are still used by many negotiators
such as the formal opening statement of the negotiation, performed by more than half people
in the study. The rest takes into account role play, preparing questions and answers for the
other party involved, preparing visual materials and preparing a mutual interest of
conversation.
2.3.2. Negotiating
Guy Faure (1994) gives the following definition of negotiations: “Negotiations are processes
of interaction between disputing parties whereby, without compulsion by a third party
adjudicator, they endeavor to come to an interdependent, joint decision concerning the terms
of agreement on the issues between them. (8:79)”.
It is very interesting for us to understand the previous researches on this subject. According to
the academic research entitled “Current trends in business negotiation research: An overview
of articles published 1996-2005” (February, 2007) by Henrik Angdal from Stockholm School
of Economics, researches including cultural context represent 36% of articles that have
previously focused on the subject, negotiation issues and organizational variables. Some more
indirect aspects can also be taken into account such as attitudes change, negotiation styles and
strategies, variables relating to the relationship, negotiation behaviors before and during the
negotiation, and negotiation outcomes. All those elements are relevant and very useful to our
study.
Angdal (2007) has provided an interesting research. First of all, he introduces the term of
negotiation and the different relevant studies made on this subject from 1996 to 2005.
Secondly and most importantly, the author provides a model of negotiation research including
four main constructs to be taken into account. All the variables of those constructs are taken
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into account as well as all the possible and relevant researches made regarding those
variables. Their researches and results are then presented.
Figure 1.7- Steps of the negotiation process
2.3.3. Outcomes of a Negotiation
According to Angdal (2007) the negotiation outcomes depend entirely on the three other
constructs of the negotiation model, the negotiation parties, the negotiation context and the
negotiation process. Thus negotiation processes that will untimely have an effect on
negotiations outcomes as it links those two variables are the negotiation types: integrative or
distributive. In order to understand their effect on negotiations it is important to define them.
First of all in a distributive situation, the goals of the two parties involved in the negotiation
are distinct and generally in conflict. As a result and according to Lewicki, Saunders and John
W. in their publication entitled Essentials of Negotiation (2010) “Each party will be likely to
use a different set of strategies to maximize their share of resources to be obtained. As a
result negotiations focus more on each party’s differences than what they have in common”.
Therefore a distributive negotiation can be counter-productive, time-consuming and very
costly. However it can also be useful if a company has the advantage over the other while
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negotiation and wants to maximize the value of the deal. It can also be useful in the case of a
negotiation that isn’t considered as important.
On the other hand integrative (or collaborative) negotiation is typically a win-win situation
where there is no looser and no winner over the negotiation. As a result the goals are similar
and both sides make the same amount of concessions or do not make concessions to get what
they want. Lewicki, Saunders and John W. (2010) define four major steps regarding
collaborative negotiations: Identifying and defining the problem in a way that will define both
sides, understanding the issue in order to bring needs to the surface to satisfy them, finding
alternatives to the actual issues faced and finally evaluating the solutions for a satisfaction in
both sides of the negotiations. The main goals is to have a win-win situation which can be
different for everyone by which is defined as a favorable outcome for everyone involved in
the process. There is then a concept of interest-based negotiation that often leads to
cooperative outcomes therefore a win-win negotiation.
Henrik Angdal (2007) provides different definitions of the outcome of a negotiation that can
be considered. First of all an outcome is often defined economically or mathematically,
therefore in quantitative and monetary terms.
Secondly an outcome can very simply be a negotiation that ends with an agreement whether it
is written, oral and so on. The form of the agreement does not matter much but the fact to end
on an agreement in the important objective.
Another very interesting outcome is the perception that the negotiation parties have of the
negotiation itself, if the people involved are happy or not.
The negotiation efficiency and productivity can be another important outcome measurement
(time of negotiation, quantity of concessions and agreements, etc.). Finally the negotiation
process type is seen as a measurement of a negotiation outcome with at the end the question
of an integrative or distributive deal and agreement that the parties have agreed on.
Fisher and Ury (1991) expose the concept of winning a negotiation. How can we know who
“won”? They insist on the fact that such a concept doesn’t exist in negotiations. Indeed, what
you are trying to win is a way to better negotiate. However a concept of win-win situation has
appeared that can be defined as a situation where all participants are benefiting from the
negotiation.
2.3.4. A particular case: negotiating in the Arab World
Every country in the world has its own characteristics when it comes to negotiation. Even
though we are living in a globalized world, cultural diversity still exists. Furthermore culture
is still resisting to globalization and is becoming a major factor in international relations. If
we understand the other party’s culture, it is a step towards a successful negotiation.
33
2.3.4.1. Negotiations in Egypt
Egypt has a very rich and specific culture that has impacted the way people behave and
therefore negotiate. It is crucial for us to understand some characteristics regarding how
people face negotiations in this particular culture. Lothar Katz (2008) gives us some key
elements to understand the different steps relevant to negotiate in Egypt such as the
importance of relationships, respect of culture and religion, indirect communication,
importance of meetings, negotiation styles and agreements.
It is in fact important to know that the process of negotiation in very different from Western
cultures. Therefore in order to evaluate the changes in negotiations due to the Arab Spring, we
will first have to study negotiation in Arabic cultures and more specifically in Egypt. Indeed,
each part of the world has its own ways of negotiating due to cultural differences. We cannot
compare possible changes in negotiation affected by the Arab Spring context to negotiation
that we have witnessed in Western countries. One of the first steps of our thesis is to introduce
negotiation in the Middle East and in Arab countries. Subsequently we will be able to
interview people in Egypt and evaluate the changes, their implications and their causes.
However, we will have to note that our theories are a generalization of the way a negotiation
works in Egypt and in Arabic countries in general. It is more a guideline of how to behave and
what to do or not to do that we will use for comparison in our own research. It is therefore a
generalization of the way people behave with no concrete examples or exceptions. However
those guidelines will still be useful in order to understand the way negotiation works in those
Arabic countries.
Hofstede (1980) collected data from fifty countries and three regions and extracted similar
characteristics to create four cultural dimensions influencing the way people act. It includes
Power Distance, Individualism vs. Collectivism, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Femininity vs.
Masculinity. Then he chose some countries of the Gulf Region including Egypt (1983). He
concluded that the populations tend to be alike when he was taking into account their culture,
religion, traditions, language and political systems. On this same note, in order to manage and
understand cultural differences, Fons Trompenaars and Charles Hampden-Turner (1997)
spent 10 years researching about the different preferences and values of people from different
cultures. They found out seven dimensions that distinguish cultures: universalism vs.
particularism, individualism vs. communitarianism, specific vs. diffuse, neutral vs. emotional,
achievement vs. ascription, sequential time vs. synchronous time and internal direction vs.
outer direction.
Following these studies, Kristopher Blanchard, from North Central University, and Dr. Asma
Abdullah (2006) provided an overview of the Arabic negotiating profile. As they state, many
negotiators from these countries use mediators to settle possible conflicts or disputes. They
gave the following profile:
An Arab negotiator :
 “Protects all the parties’ honor, self-respect, and dignity
34
 Avoids direct confrontation between opponents
 Is respected and trusted by all
 Does not put the parties involved in a situation where they have to show weakness or
admit defeat
 Has the necessary prestige to be listened to
 Is creative enough to come up with honorable solutions for all parties
 Is impartial and can understand the positions of the various parties without leaning
toward one or the other
 Is able to resist any kind of pressure that the opponents could try to exercise on him
 Uses references to people who are highly respected by the opponents to persuade
them to change their minds on some issues
 Can keep secrets and in so doing gains the confidence of the negotiating parties
 Controls his temper and emotions
 Can use conference as mediating devices
 Knows that the opponent will have problems in carrying out the decisions made
during the negotiation
 Is able to cope with the Arab disregard for time”
Katz (2008) has explained the importance of building a strong relationship and network
through trust, respect of culture and religion, and cordial relations. A key characteristic of
negotiation in those countries and specifically in Egypt in this part is that “Social interactions
may be just as important as business contacts, if not more”.
We then have an important part about communication. It not only includes the spoken and
written language, which is Arabic, but also an indirect communication which is very
important in Arabic countries. Any person who has spent time in those countries know that a
“yes” doesn’t always mean yes and that “no” can be seen as a very offending term. According
to Katz (2008) Arabic people are generally very positive. Finally body language and gesture
are important characteristics of communication to take into account. Another important aspect
of this particular type of negotiation is the initial greeting and contact, which is very
important. Hierarchic status of people negotiating, titles of people, scheduling, introduction
and so on can be part of a certain ritual. It is important to respect some traditions especially
regarding the religion’s values and principles.
Moreover Katz (2008) explains in his studies on International business negotiation in Egypt
that negotiating in Arab countries means that a certain negotiation style must be adopted, such
as the attitude while negotiating, the lack of information sharing, the slow and long-term pace
of negotiation, the great advantage of bargaining that Arabic people have and finally the
decision making phase. All those phases are briefly explained and more specifically the
bargaining step which is very particular in Egypt and Middle East as it is a region where
people are daily bargainers.
35
Finally the agreement importance is explained as well as the importance of the partner’s
commitment rather than the written contract.
2.3.5. Intercultural Negotiations
Culture is "that complex whole which includes knowledge, belief, art, morals, law, customs
and other capabilities and habits acquired by man as a member of society" (E.B. Taylor,
1871). It can therefore influence negotiation that will impact the consequences and the
outcomes of a negotiation. Studying the encounter of people coming from two different
countries is relevant to our research problem, as intercultural negotiation has always appeared
in any negotiation between two cultures. It is therefore anterior to the Arab Spring
phenomenon.
Intercultural negotiation “describes the negotiating relations between members of different
ethnic groups and languages, interacting in an international context” (Marsen, 2006). We
assume that difficulties and differences have evolved during the Arab Spring regarding
intercultural negotiations but it is important to understand the basic dimension and
characteristics of this type of negotiation, as it is common to find people from different
cultures negotiating.
A study made by Guy-Olivier Faure (1994) explains in a clear and simple way how cultural
differences influence negotiations between two or more parties. It takes into account different
variables that we will need to take into account in order to go deeper in our own research. In
fact, intercultural negotiation is the consequence of several external factors. Culture affects
negotiations at different levels and changes people’s perception. It includes the negotiators
involved, the structure of the negotiation, the strategies used, the followed process and the
result. Those elements are relevant for our studies as we need to know which one have
evolved according to the Arab Spring. How does the other party involved face this change?
How did they adapt their negotiation methods?
Another relevant aspect of this study involves the influence level of culture on negotiation. In
one of the articles studied the author, Victor Danciu (2009), explains four levels of culture
that can impact negotiations. The probabilities of a major change of those levels due to the
Arab Spring experience are very high. In fact the involvement of international help and the
situation of foreign companies in countries facing economic and social crisis may have a high
influence of cultural cognition and identity. Those are important levels of influence involved
in intercultural negotiation.
According to Danciu’s article, we will therefore divide the intercultural negotiation into three
main parts. First of all let’s introduce the different types of cultures that can influence
negotiations. It includes family, religion, organizational culture and professional activity. A
same person can have different values and principles relatives to those different factors of
influence and that creates relational tensions.
36
Then there is an important part on the different external and internal influence of culture on
negotiation involving:
- The negotiators themselves (how they interact with each other, how they perceive each
other, interpretations, stereotypes, acceptable and unacceptable behaviors…),
- The negotiation structure with the juridical or organizational process, the hierarchic
position, the status and age importance, etc.
- The strategies and tactics. In fact the goals of each parties involved are mainly affected
but respective cultural principles and values.
- The negotiation processes in order to exchange information, create options, divide
resources or make concessions. In can be a real ritual.
- And finally the result and the contract which can be perceived and applied in different
ways.
Finally, culture influences negotiation on many levels and gives the observer a very large
panel of practices linked to the multicity of existing cultures and groups. This results in the
observation of four levels of consequences on culture: cognition, believes, behaviors and
identity. As a result the final step, which is important if we witness an impact of culture over
negotiations, is the identification of the negotiation style as a result of cultural influences. In
fact Shell (2006) has observed five styles of negotiations such as adaptation of negotiators, a
behavior of issue avoidance, competition to gain something out of the situation and finally the
comprise style to properly conclude a negotiation. According to the different types of cultural
behaviors and influenced by Danciu (2009) in his article “The impact of the Culture on the
International Negotiations”, we can link those causes of culture to the negotiations’ styles of
Shell (2006).
37
Figure 1.8- Influence of culture over negotiation outcome
We have seen all the important aspects of a negotiation for our study. Since we are living in a
globalized world it is important to know those differences. We also chose to highlight the
particularities of negotiating in the Arab World such as Egypt where our study will be mainly
focused.
After having dealt with the characteristics of the Arab Spring and the ones of a negotiation,
certain insecurities or issue may arise. Indeed, the Arab Spring being an unstable and unsure
environment could bring problems or conflicts while negotiating. This is why we need to take
into account conflict management processes and we need to know how to prevent from
conflicts while negotiating in such a tensed situation.
2.4. Conflict management/prevention
As we have seen before and as we will strive to prove in our study, we assume that the Arab
Spring context has brought some difficulties in negotiating, especially with foreign companies
located in those countries. Therefore, with time, negotiators have had to work on conflict
management and prevention in order to get to a long-term and peaceful agreement. In this
part, we will learn about the process of positional bargaining in negotiation that does not tend
to produce a good agreement. We have seen previously that a good agreement will be
38
reached when it will satisfy both parties and improve relationships. However, getting to this
result may be tricky as some problems may appear.
2.4.1. Definition
According to Folger, Poole and Stutman (1997) “Conflict is the interaction of interdependent
people who perceive incompatible goals and interference from each other in achieving those
goals.” It means that conflict is a difference between two or more persons or even groups that
are confronted to disagreement, emotion, or tension. In this case, the bonds between people
are broken which can lead to frustration or even pain.
Conflict management includes reducing conflict within teams. It does not mean avoiding
conflicts but rather facilitating resolution, identifying the social behavior reflected in conflict
situations, supporting the creation of healthy argumentative cultures, being able to find
consensus with others, aiming for win-win situations and reacting calmly to personal attacks.
Those skills are to be taken into account. We then have to focus on the possible causes
relative to negotiation conflict as a part of our research in order to draw conclusions.
2.4.2. Preventing a conflict
In order to avoid a conflict situation there are a few steps to follow. One of the main rules is to
use principles over positions. This is an important step that works on almost any type of
conflict. Fisher, R., Ury, W. and Patton, B. (1991) states that whatever the other party does or
intends to do, a party shouldn’t:
- Bargain over positions,
- Separate people from the problem,
- Insist on the objective criteria
- Invent options for mutual gain that must me use from both parties at each stage of the
negotiation process.
If these criteria are fulfilled it will prevent future conflicts.
2.4.2.1. Separate the people from the problem
It is a common flaw that some people tend to always take problems too seriously and
personally. It pushes them to misunderstand each other, feel mad or upset by finding ways to
solve problems. However it also is a normal reaction as negotiators are people, meaning that
they have feelings, emotions, values, sensitivity, backgrounds… These characteristics differ
from a person to another and that is what makes them unique and therefore unpredictable. As
we have said previously, a negotiation seeks to start or foster a long-term relationship where
parties respect and understand each other. It is possible that a negative impressions or a
misunderstanding leads to a prejudice. In this case, it becomes hard to deal with the other
party and the outcome may be bad. Therefore, at every step of the negotiation, it is important
to ask yourself questions about how well are you paying attention to person in front of you.
39
Each side has the same interest which is reaching an agreement and having a good
relationship while negotiating, this is why understanding the perception of the other side is not
optional. It is important to deal with every aspects of the person in front of you, that is to say
taking into account his feelings, emotions and try to put yourself into his shoes. If this step is
well done, it would help preventing a conflict that could be initiated by a misunderstanding or
a lack of communication. However, it is important to keep an eye on the agreement and not
pay too much attention on the other side psychology.
2.4.2.2. Focus on interests
In a negotiation, one of the most common issues is the fact that each party has different needs
and desire that creates a conflict as they may diverge in different directions. This can cause
people to take different decisions and actions. Therefore to reconcile interests several
positions should be examined in order to satisfy them, or even find an alternative one. The
key is therefore to identify these different interests and to communicate about them.
2.4.2.3. Invent options for mutual gain
At one point, in a negotiator life, he will be faced with a situation where there are no possible
solutions that will satisfy him or the counterparty. In this case each party won’t be receiving
what they initially wanted.
The authors Fisher and Ury (1991) identified major obstacles that inhibit the finding of
solutions. First of all, as one can be influenced by the external context of the negotiation such
as stress, it is important to separate the process of choosing an option that could have been
invented under pressure from the process of judging it. Secondly, people tend to think that the
outcome of a negotiation is to find a single best answer. This is clearly an error. The key is to
broaden the possible solutions in order not to be stuck in a situation that does not work. Then
it is necessary to search for mutual gains. Finally, each side must not only be concerned with
its own interests only.
2.4.2.4. Insist on using objective criteria
Trying to reconcile differences and resolve conflict is hard. In these cases, negotiators tend to
use the “positional bargaining”. This is one of the common errors while negotiating. This
concept can be mistaken for a good agreement. It can be defined as a “win-lose against a win-
win situation” meaning that each party is holding on to an idea or a position regardless of any
underlying and common interests. This is often seen when people bargain and negotiate about
a price. Each side starts at a given price, and as the process continues making some
concessions or even a compromise. It can be considered not as a good constructive and
efficient strategy.
Cutts (2008) provides an explanation of the process of “positional bargaining” and the
following reasons why this process results in a non-beneficial bargain.
40
This strategy is usually adopted while entering a negotiation. As the negotiation goes, parties
become more attached to their ideas and defend them; therefore people tend to become
stubborn which will harm the parties’ relationship. If the relationship is harmed then each
party would try to pursue their own interests and therefore it will be difficult to reach an
agreement.
This objective criterion has to satisfy every side and must be legitimate and objective such as
scientific findings. The negotiating parties may have diverging interests but they need to find
a shared goal. The important thing that to keep in mind at all times is to be open-minded to
propositions and not to respond to threats or bribery. In this case, the person who insists on
doing a negotiation with principles will bring others around to join him since it becomes the
only way to advance their interests.
2.4.3. Skills needed
Instinctively, human seek to run away from conflicts. It is a logical reaction as our brains tells
us that conflicts are sources of danger. However it has been noted that conflict is a driver of
change. In a case of conflict, people tend to be more creative and innovate in order to get out
of the conflict. It brings people together and improves performances. To this end it is essential
for leaders to translate this conflict into performance. This is the goal of conflict management:
mastering the issue to turn it into a force. A successful way of resolving conflict depends on
the ability of managing stress and emotions. By doing so, it will be possible to have a correct
and appropriate verbal and non-verbal communication without the other to feel punished or
frightened. In other words it is important to listen attentively the feelings of the others as well
as what they are saying. Finally, being open-minded and respectful of differences is a must
that will help resolve the issue.
Hudson and Grishkam (2005) provided a portrait of the skills needed. They stated that people
with strong leadership skills could be more effective. As organizations are becoming flatter,
culturally rich, geographically diverse, and intensely competitive, the possibilities for
potential conflicts are greater, and negotiators must have sufficient competencies to lead in
such situations. Their paper reflects on three complementary leadership competencies that are
addressed in worldwide competency standards, that of, conflict management, negotiation, and
effective communication, which the authors argue are not well-represented in the National
(Australian) Competency Standards for Project Management. These skills have been found
by the authors to be most useful in practicing project management. To manage conflict a
leaders must understand the basics of a negotiation theory and effectively communicate. This
paper discusses some recognized negotiation techniques, and useful communications skills
that will enhance the ability of leaders to be more effective not only in conflict management.
A conflict is more than a disagreement; it is a situation where parties feel threatened or
misunderstood. If those aren’t solved, they can evolve and become worse. As we are facing
them, each human have different reactions. Our background, our emotions, feelings, culture
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Final thesis_Semester2_Lhomer_Marechal

  • 1. KIMBERLEY LHOMER LESLIE MARECHAL 2012/13 FINAL MASTER'S THESIS Implications of the Arab Spring on business negotiations: the case of Egypt Kimberley Lhomer; Leslie Marechal S U P E R V I S O R S : F A W A Z B A D D A R / I A N S P E A K M A N
  • 2. 1 Kimberley LHOMER Leslie MARECHAL FINAL MASTER’S THESIS Implications of the Arab Spring on business negotiations: the case of Egypt ACKOWLEDGMENTS IESEG SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 3, rue de la digue 59000 Lille « L’IÉSEG n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans les mémoires ; ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à leurs auteurs » YEAR 2012/2013
  • 3. 2 AKNOWLEDGMENTS First of all, we would like to highlight the fact that this study was highly beneficial for both of us. Indeed even though it represents a lot of work, we were able to meet and discuss with professionals working in different industries which would have never been possible without this thesis. Since the business people we have met had different backgrounds, we have had the opportunity to discover what was going on in the Arab Region and more specifically in Egypt at an economic, social and political level. They took time to provide us with a very interesting insight of the current situation in the Arab region and especially on the business climate in Egypt. Without those people interviewed our research wouldn’t have existed. We have realized that it is a hard time for people living in Egypt and constantly dealing with the Arab Spring in their work. That is the reason why we are even more grateful that they have taken some time to explain their opinions and perspectives over the situation. Therefore, we would like to thank all the people that have agreed to be interviewed and that were particularly enthusiastic to participate in our study. Moreover we would like to thank Dr. Adel MEHANY, who has accepted to answer our questions, give his perspectives on the current and future situation despite his very busy schedule. We would also like to underline the help of our thesis professors, Dr. BADDAR and Dr. SPEAKMAN for their guidance and advice. Finally we would like to thank all the professors, students and especially our relatives that have pushed us to pursue the research on this particular subject, uniting our field of study that is international negotiations and our personal background since we both have lived in the affected countries. This research underlines nicely the end of our 5 years curriculum within IESEG School of Management.
  • 4. 3 SUMMARY AKNOWLEDGMENTS ..........................................................................................................2 ABSTRACT ..............................................................................................................................6 1. Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................7 1.1. The Research problem................................................................................................. 7 1.1.1. Research problem of the thesis............................................................................. 7 1.1.2. Relevancy of the problem .................................................................................... 7 1.2. The Research objective................................................................................................ 8 1.2.1. Purpose of the investigation ................................................................................. 8 1.2.2. Expected contribution of our work....................................................................... 8 1.2.3. Research scope and boundaries............................................................................ 9 1.3. The Research questions ............................................................................................... 9 1.3.1. Main research question......................................................................................... 9 1.3.2. Underlying questions............................................................................................ 9 2. Chapter 2: Literature Review........................................................................................10 2.1. Conceptual background ............................................................................................. 10 2.2. The Arab Spring ........................................................................................................ 12 2.2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 12 2.2.2. Politics in the Arab World.................................................................................. 12 2.2.3. The Arab Spring................................................................................................. 16 2.2.4. The International Relations Theory.................................................................... 22 2.2.4.1. Post-Arab Spring Implications ....................................................................... 22 2.3. The Negotiation Process............................................................................................ 28 2.3.1. The pre-negotiation process ............................................................................... 28 2.3.2. Negotiating......................................................................................................... 30 2.3.3. Outcomes of a Negotiation................................................................................. 31 2.3.4. A particular case: negotiating in the Arab World............................................... 32 2.3.5. Intercultural Negotiations................................................................................... 35 2.4. Conflict management/prevention........................................................................... 37 2.4.1. Definition ........................................................................................................... 38 2.4.2. Preventing a conflict........................................................................................... 38 2.4.3. Skills needed ...................................................................................................... 40
  • 5. 4 2.4.4. Conclusion, relevancy and weaknesses.............................................................. 41 2.4.5. Contribution of our research .............................................................................. 42 3. Chapter 3: Research Methodology................................................................................44 3.1. Conceptual model and propositions .......................................................................... 44 3.2. The Methodology ...................................................................................................... 47 3.2.1. Data collection.................................................................................................... 47 3.2.2. Relevance of our research design....................................................................... 48 3.2.3. Purpose of our research...................................................................................... 49 3.2.4. Types and sources of data .................................................................................. 50 3.2.5. Method of data collection................................................................................... 53 3.2.6. Relevancy of the method.................................................................................... 55 3.2.7. Weaknesses and strengths of the data collection method................................... 55 3.2.8. Sampling design ................................................................................................. 56 3.2.9. Measurement Instruments .................................................................................. 57 3.3. Data analysis.............................................................................................................. 58 3.3.1. Managing the data .............................................................................................. 58 3.3.2. Managing the data .............................................................................................. 58 3.3.3. Relevancy of the method.................................................................................... 59 3.3.4. Summary of the theories used ............................................................................ 60 3.4. Search of the contacts for the interviews................................................................... 60 3.5. Interview conduction ................................................................................................. 61 3.5.1. Interview methods.............................................................................................. 61 3.5.2. Interview duration .............................................................................................. 62 3.6. Description of the sample’s general profile............................................................... 63 4. Chapter 4 : The Results..................................................................................................66 4.1. Findings associated with the interviews .................................................................... 66 4.1.1. Business negotiation constructs affected by the Arab Spring............................ 66 4.1.2. Arab Spring factors that have impacted business negotiations .......................... 70 4.1.3. Future expectations ............................................................................................ 74 4.2. Results interpretation and come back to literature .................................................... 78 4.2.1. Result Discussion ............................................................................................... 78 4.2.2. Come Back to Literature .................................................................................... 83 4.2.2.1. Arab Spring Theories...................................................................................... 84
  • 6. 5 4.2.2.2. Negotiation Theories ...................................................................................... 85 4.2.2.3. Conflict Management/ Prevention Theories................................................... 86 4.3. Managerial implications ............................................................................................ 88 4.4. Limitations and directions for future researches ....................................................... 89 5. Chapter 5: Conclusion....................................................................................................90 6. Chapter 6 : Reflection.....................................................................................................94 7. References........................................................................................................................95 8. Bibliography ....................................................................................................................99 9. Appendix........................................................................................................................102
  • 7. 6 ABSTRACT This thesis focuses on a very recent phenomenon that has been followed worldwide, the Arab Spring, and its implications on business negotiations within the concerned countries. In fact the Arab Spring has truly impacted international relations, local politics and the economy. It is then a logical reasoning to entail that this movement has also affected business and more specifically business negotiations. In order not to scatter ourselves, we have decided to focus on one country that has heavily been affected by this wave of change: Egypt. Although the essence of this thesis will be to prove that the Arab Spring has in fact affected business negotiations in Egypt, we have to assess two main steps to explain this result. Firstly we need to find out what constructs of business negotiations have been affected since the Egyptian revolutions of 2011. Secondly we have to link those changes to specific political, economical or social aspects of the Arab Spring to evaluate the consequences to that recent change of pace in business negotiations. Consequently we should expect to find a positive link between the Arab Spring phenomenon and business negotiations with the case of Egypt. In the event of a positive link between those two constructs, the goal will then be to estimate future perspectives regarding business negotiations. It would be very interesting to ask ourselves and the people involved in this wind of change if the implications they have witnessed are likely to last in the long-term or not. The results of those implications could have consequences over business negotiations within the Arab Region. The continuation of our thinking-process would be to ask ourselves if the challenges of the Arab revolutions modify the traditional negotiation process in the countries that have experienced the Arab Spring.
  • 8. 7 1. Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1. The Research problem 1.1.1. Research problem of the thesis The research problem we have decided to work on is the effect on this recent movement called the “Arab Spring”. We will be focusing on the economy of those countries but more specifically on the negotiation conditions of foreign multinationals and local companies implemented there. In that sense, we have decided to focus on a country that has heavily experienced the revolutions: Egypt. With the Arab Spring, we have witnessed some major political but also economical and social changes. It would therefore seem logical to evaluate the effects of this phenomenon on Egypt in order to determine what constructs have been affected. We will then assess the way people uses to negotiate in Arab countries as it is important for business people to have an overview of the current negotiating conditions when dealing with companies based in Egypt. However we will also evaluate the changes in business negotiations affected by the Arab Spring factors. Following this and thanks to the people we will interview, working for either multinational or small to medium companies based in the concerned country, we will be able to draw a conclusion and determine at which level this former flourishing economy has been impacted. As a result we might also be able to foresee the possible future prospects. 1.1.2. Relevancy of the problem The problematic set down as a part of our thesis is relevant as the Arab Spring has truly affected the international and business relations within the concerned region. According to the Arabian Gazette, three of the reasons for this up-rise of protests and riots against the authoritarian regimes are the need of people for economic and employment progress, the need of democracy and the need of social balance. On one hand we have witnessed a movement based on and ideas of economical liberalism, which advocates international negotiations, trades and a market economy. However, on another hand, due to the violence and proportion of the events, many expatriates were sent back to their countries or were sent to more stable countries. Moreover most foreign companies are very reluctant to invest in those countries. For instance, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit: Egypt’s Country Forecast in January 2009 (p.11-13), the GDP of Egypt has decreased from 7.2% in 2008 to 1.5% for this year. Furthermore the position and the decisions often made by the international community have had an important impact on the relations between the foreign companies implemented in those Arab countries and the local people. Diplomatic international relations have often affected international negotiation and vice versa.
  • 9. 8 Finally, an even more recent phenomenon as a consequence of the Arab Spring that can severely impact business negotiation especially with foreign companies and business people is the rise of political Islamism. Can political Islamism act as a government opening their economy to foreign direct investment and multinational companies? Will intercultural negotiations be affected by the rise of political Islamism? 1.2. The Research objective 1.2.1. Purpose of the investigation The purpose of our investigation is to study and understand in what way this phenomenon called the Arab Spring has affected business negotiations between people working either for foreign companies or local companies implemented in one of those affecter countries (in our case: Egypt). With the position of the international community over the former existing issues, the current unstable state of the Arab Region, the rise of political Islamism and the future objectives, it is clear that the economic and political context as well as business negotiations have taken an important turn. 1.2.2. Expected contribution of our work The Arab Spring is a recent phenomenon we have found very few articles and papers that have been achieved on the important turn-around that these countries are currently facing. Even less authors have been talking about the impact of these changes on business negotiation, this is why we believe our research is important and could lead to other possible researches. Our thesis should then bring answers to the questions and confusions about the Arab spring causes and effects on the business environment as a whole but especially on business negotiations and on possible future business expectations. In order to complete successfully our goal, we will take contact with concerned people such as expatriates and locals located in Egypt in order to analyze the links between these testimonies. Therefore, our thesis will first rely on an accurate literature reviews in order to explain the concept of business negotiation models that will help us understand its basics and the previous researches that we will be able to compare to our study. It is important, for us, to understand well the theories on business negotiations in general before relating it to the Arab Spring. Then, after the results of the interviews, we will provide a research model. This qualitative research will allow us to determine a specific approach for our study. Finally as we have both lived in Arabic countries for many years this research is very important to us. What’s more our field of study is international sales and negotiations. Therefore we have chosen a coherent research matching both our professional field of interest and a personal-related subject. It is even more interested as this research has not been studied yet.
  • 10. 9 1.2.3. Research scope and boundaries Our study will take into account the relationships between the Arab spring and business negotiations within multinational and local companies located in Egypt. The goal is to determine the links between them, that is to say: the causes of the Arab spring; the effects on business negotiation model; its several constructs including negotiation process, negotiation context, negotiation parties and negotiation outcomes; and finally the possible future perspectives. The qualitative research will mainly be based on interviews of people working in such an environment and that have witnessed this wind of change. (Frey and Oshi, 1995). The main boundary that we will face is time. Since we wish to contact several people who have been working in these countries at a specific period of time, we need to be very organized and contact them as soon as possible in order to be able to perform the most interviews possible. Our main contacts will be located in Egypt where we will be able to witness the real impact of the Arab Spring on business negotiations. 1.3. The Research questions 1.3.1. Main research question Our main research question is the following: What are the implications of the Arab Spring on business negotiations in Egypt? 1.3.2. Underlying questions This research questions brings up three underlying questions:  What constructs of business negotiations have been affected by the context of the Arab Spring?  What factors of the Arab Spring have affected business negotiations within the concerned countries?  What is to be expected in the future?
  • 11. 10 2. Chapter 2: Literature Review 2.1. Conceptual background There are several themes relative to our research. We have decided to divide our literature review into four main themes that constitute our research thesis. The objective of this literature review is to provide a conceptual framework useful to develop our thesis. In order to know what concepts would be most useful to highlight as a part of our thesis, we have started to ask ourselves basic questions about the Arab Spring phenomenon. Three questions have appeared while doing researches on this event. Figure 1.1- Basic questions about the Arab Spring phenomenon Indeed, during the researches on the Arab Spring, we have seen that the phenomenon was often qualified as a social change. This is the reason why we have decided to elaborate on this concept. Then, we have related it to our area of research and asked ourselves how we could negotiate in such an environment. This part has brought out different aspects of a negotiation process. Finally, we have foreseen that in such a framework, conflicts and hostilities might appear. That’s why we decided to provide concepts about conflict management and prevention. We then have decided to extract the important concepts appearing in these questions because they are useful to provide a deep analysis of all the variables we need to take into account for our research. We have focused on four variables that need to be explained by theories. We chose the Arab Spring; Social, political & economic change; Negotiation and Conflicts prevention/management concepts that we will explain in this literature review. ARAB SRING How do we define change? How to negotiate when dealing with such a phenomenon? In this context, how to prevent and deal with possible conflicts?
  • 12. 11 Arab Spring Revolutions Economical, political and social change Prospects Negotiations Process Intercultural theories Conflicts For this first variable we will focus on the Arab Spring in order to fully understand this phenomenon: how it all began and what are the theories related to it. As result we will explain what triggered these uprisings and provide a summary of its particular characteristics. Then we will focus a main aspect of our research study: the negotiation process, in order to understand its definition and different steps. We will also highlight how to negotiate in Arab countries such Egypt and the specificities of intercultural negotiation in those cases. Moreover, another important concept of our study is conflict management and prevention that the main actors of the negotiation face due to the recent event that is the Arab Spring. Finally, it is important to interest ourselves on the political, economic and social change that this Arab spring led to. That is why, definitions, theories and the consequences of sustainable change will be reviewed. Figure 1.2- Arab Spring and negotiation contexts Therefore the goal of our thesis is to find the link between Negotiations and the Arab Spring that’s to say, what constructs of the negotiation have been affected by the Arab Spring, what factors of the Arab Spring have influenced negotiation processes and finally what could be the possible outcomes of both concepts. We will now draw an overview of the few previous researches.
  • 13. 12 2.2. The Arab Spring 2.2.1. Introduction The case of Mohamed Bouazizi’s death on December 17th 2010 has brought up a revolution that was never expected. According to Cédric Dupont and Florence Passy’s article, “The Arab Spring or How to Explain those Revolutionary Episodes?” (2011) published in the Swiss Political Science Review, this Tunisian street seller burned himself alive after being bullied in public by government policemen. This act against oppression, autocracy and freedom of expression has triggered a revolution that has surprised international communities. It has created a worldwide interest for this movement and has caused a huge local change in political, economic and social factors. This event is now known popularly as the youth’s revolution or the Arab Spring. These protests have started in Tunisia following the tragic event regarding Bouazizi’s death and have spread to most Arab countries such as Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Kuwait, Morocco, and so on. However, this phenomenon has certain particularities that have made it so worldwide mediatized. One of its particularities is that this revolution has spread thanks to social networks which have never happened in the past for any existing revolutions. People have connected which each other in order to meet and fight for what they believed in. As a result those people concerned have the particularity to feel empowered by those collective actions. It is quite a change compared to previous revolutions. Indeed, people use to feel defenseless when they were dealing with problems regarding the current power and government, as it was powerful and indestructible. However, with this collective action people felt that a change would be possible. We will now ask ourselves about the variables that have led to this wave of uprisings, their characteristics and what are the possible outcomes in the Arab region. It is important to understand that these unexpected events that have influenced the daily life of people in the concerned countries. 2.2.2. Politics in the Arab World 2.2.2.1. Geography Before getting deeper into our analysis, we need first of all to define what the ‘Arab World’ is. Indeed, K. Imomotimi Ebienfa and P. Kuro Inokoba (2012) define this term as “Arabic speaking states, territories and populations in North Africa and Western Asia, popularly known as the Middle East with the exception of Israel” where oil brings most of their income with approximately half of the world’s oil and a third of the world’s gas reserves according to The Washington Post on February 2011. It is composed of 22 countries with around 422 million people including more than 200 million under 25, starting from the Atlantic Ocean to the Arabian Sea, and from the Mediterranean Sea to Africa. The dominant religion of the Arab world is Islam.
  • 14. 13 Figure 1.3- Effect of the Arab Spring on the Arab Region Source:http://svennie.no/2012/04/04/ The countries representing this part of world are: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Most of these countries are under the governance of monarchies or authoritarian regimes not taking into account democracy. Indeed, according to Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, and Tewodaj Mengistu, in “Democratization in the Arab World : Prospects and Lessons from around he Globe” (2012), the Arab World includes pure authoritarian regimes containing seven monarchies (Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), and, before the Arab Spring, six republics ruled by autocrats (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia Syria, and Yemen). This part of the world never had consolidated democracies, however, it includes few hybrid regimes such as Iraq, Kuwait and Lebanon, which can be referred as democratizing regimes. Michael Herb (1999) characterizes Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as “dynastic monarchies” as they are countries where the power is shared within a family. For Bahrain, the power is passed through primogeniture, and for the other countries it is the family who decides who will be the next monarch. For the “non-dynastic Arab monarchies”, the leader selects his successor. The republics tend to be difficult to analyze as they are complex and “associated with personalist, single-party and military dominated regimes” (Laurel E. Miller, Jeffrey Martini, F. Stephen Larrabee, Angel Rabasa, Stephanie Pezard, Julie E. Taylor, and Tewodaj Mengistu, in “Democratization in the Arab World : Prospects and Lessons from around he Globe” (2012)). We have seen that it is a region, where authoritarianism is present, and as a consequence where political rights and civil liberties have been put to the background that’s to say that the government wouldn’t allow fundamentals liberties or free elections for example that we will detail more in the next part.
  • 15. 14 2.2.2.2. Authoritarian Regimes Most previous studies regarding the Arab world involve Authoritarianism, as it is probably the most important term characterizing governments of the countries located in this area. This concept has been defined by Linz (1976) as “Political systems with limited, not responsible, political pluralism, without elaborate and guiding ideology, but with distinctive mentalities, without extensive nor intensive political mobilization, except at some points in their development, and in which a leader or occasionally a small group exercises power within formally ill-defined limits but actually quite predictable ones.” It means that they are regimes where the ruler has absolute power; nobody including the constitutions and laws are powerful against this type of leader. They dictate the people, hence the term “dictator”. Basically, it means that these countries weren’t free or with a very limited freedom. Linz (1976) proposes a classical definition of authoritarianism, which will be, later on, reformulated by c. He highlights the existing restrictions in political pluralism. Indeed, a certain point of pluralism may be accepted but the regime can be qualified as authoritarian if its structure excludes the participation of forces of opposition. Therefore, one of the advantages for the authoritarian leader is the absence of free competitive and legitimate elections that would let people voting for him through a referendum. In this optic, we can say that the functioning of an authoritarian regime is built on several practices such as repression, alliances, transactions and collusions with society. In these countries, governments were using their power at their will ignoring populations, and shutting Medias down for them not to see reality. Prisons were full of political prisoners were torture was a common punishment. Camau (2006) adds at this list the image of leadership. Indeed, the legitimacy of this regime builds itself on the enigmatic relationship the leader creates with its population. He would use the country’s history to present himself as a mystic figure sent to save populations that cannot be replaced. As Maya Bhardwaj (2012) states in “Development of Conflict in Arab Spring Libya and Syria: From revolution to Civil War”, scholars were surprised that such revolts occurred because Authoritarianism was a regime that would make these uprisings impossible because the state would have blocked every attempt to revolt against the government. Leaders were expanding their power at the expense of others, ruling over institutions designed to constrain them. As Goldstone (2011) writes, these leaders were keeping people “depoliticized and unorganized” as they were making sure to be elected again, controlling the Medias, and intimidating citizens that made sure populations wouldn’t react. There was little hope for these countries to transit to a democracy one day. 2.2.2.3. Egypt under Hosni Mubarak In 1981, the vice president Hosni Mubarak succeeds to the president Sadate after his death by murder claimed by a group of jihadists’ officers that didn’t want a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. The new Egyptian leader chooses to continue the strategy of its predecessor that had begun in 1976: an offensive against intellectuals such as Islamism, feminism and free press.
  • 16. 15 On the political scene, Hosni Mubarak supported the resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood (the Islamist party) and radical movements as J.D. Cloutier states in “Mobilisations populaires et changements politiques en Afrique du Nord: Une analyse du Printemps arabe en gypte et Tunisie” in 2012. Opposing parties were authorized to have syndicates, professional organizations and associations, but were pushed away from the political scene, even if in 1977, a law on political parties stated that « no party can be created on a class or a religion ». Cloutier writes as well that this measure was taken after the apparition of a series of protests following the possibility of a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, where Islamists and Communists were imprisoned. Hosni Mubarak’s political party, the National Democratic Party (NDP) was relying on security forces to discourage any form of opposition. As a form of opposition, we can include the Muslim Brotherhood, launched in 1928 by the imam Hassan al-Binna. Over time, this party began to be more and more popular and influenced other movements in the Arab World. This movement was in favor of the instauration of an Islamic Caliphate in Egypt and advocated a society in which the Koran defined laws (Sharia). After an attempt to kill the president Nasser in 1954, the brotherhood was banished for the second time from the Egyptian political scene. However, in the 1970s, the group claimed that he would stop violence in order to be able to participate again. While Mubarak was at power, he took into account their request and allowed them to present to the legislative elections as Cloutier declares in his “L’Egypte sous Moubarak” chapter. The maximum level of political pluralism controlled by the regime was reached in 2005. Protestations were inciting the regime to make concessions that were rather limited and illusory. In September, was organized the first pluralist election and president universal suffrage. The Muslim Brotherhood took 20% of the parliament seats and the difficulty of the Mubarak’s party incited the regime to turn back. Later on, more periods of corruption and repression arose. Mubarak’s Egypt can be seen as a model of authoritarianism where laws have been suppressed and put back at ease. To justify these changes, an imaginary fight against terrorists was put up making him capable of arresting « suspects ». By doing so, Mubarak was able to control the Medias and ban manifestations as well as public reunions. Furthermore, it is important to note that police plays an important role. When we take a look at the economic sector, we can notice that the rise of liberal economic reforms and the decrease of public expenses highly contributed to destabilize several sectors. As a consequence, unemployment has increased and purchasing power as well as work conditions have decreased. Before the protests, young people were the most affected by those issues. The youth unemployment rate, from 18 years old to 29, had reached 25% and half of the young people employed were over-qualified and over-educated for the job they had. On another hand, military expenses were highly important for Mubarak and created a deficit in Egypt‘s budget. In 2010, it was estimated that $340 million were spent in the civil sector for military equipment.
  • 17. 16 2.2.3. The Arab Spring 2.2.3.1. Origins It seemed that just not far back in times these countries would remain permanent autocratic countries. We can therefore interrogate ourselves about the reasons that have pushed thousands of people to gather in the streets. On December 17th , movements appeared following the self-immolation of a Tunisian street seller after being bullied in public by government policemen, on December 17th 2010. Mohammed Bouazizi started to provide for his family when he was 10 by selling fruits and vegetables on a market in order for his siblings to afford their education. Government forces would sometimes take some of his products for no legitimate motive. On December 17th 2010, Mohammed Bouazizi was publicly humiliated by a group of policemen after refusing to hand them one of his scales. Following this incident, he tried to seek justice by going to a local municipality but nobody listened to him. Therefore, in order to protest, he has set himself on fire. He is now the symbol of the Arab Awakening, as he could not handle anymore the oppression of the Tunisian authoritarian regime. On December 22nd , another young Tunisian electrocuted himself in the street. This added another wind of anger for people protesting, especially for young people. At that time, Tunisian president Ben Ali made a mistake by going to the hospital to see the young Bouazizi. His visit was perceived as an insult in Tunisia. Following this act of despair, thousands of people gathered in the streets of Tunisia, which has been possible thanks to the economic growth and technological change, manifesting against unemployment, corruption, censorships, inflation and lack of freedom. Within a month, the political regime of Ben Ali collapsed. In a press conference in the 1950s, the former US President Dwight Eisenhower analysed what he called the “falling domino principle”. He states that if “You have a row of dominoes set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over very quickly. So you could have a beginning of a disintegration that would have the most profound influences.” This metaphor takes into account dominoes represented by countries and the contagious element can be referred to communism. He related it to countries aligned with USSR and the United States during the cold war. Although this president was making an allusion to communism, the basic idea of this principle is much broader. Indeed, for example, Roosevelt used this theory to describe fascism and this idea has been also used to justify the American intervention in Iraq where Bush believed that establishing a democracy in Iraq would have a reverse domino effect and lead to a democracy in the Middle East. It is therefore important to note that the basic logic of this principle is the same in our case. It highlights that changes in a country’s political institutions spreads to neighboring countries and affects their institutions the same way. We can relate this theory to the one of the Arab Spring where dominoes can be assimilated to authoritarian regimes falling one after the other. As we have seen, we can compare these regimes to falling dominos, as Eisenhower did with communists’ regimes. The fall of Ben Ali can be compared as the first domino that fell. After
  • 18. 17 this event, Egypt followed Tunisia by protesting and overthrowing Mubarak within two weeks, and the second domino fell. These events inspired other neighboring countries across the region leading for Libya and Syria to civil wars. The Libyan civil war led to the fall of Muammar Gaddafi whereas Bashar Al Assad still remains at the head of the country. According to the Oxford dictionaries, we can define the Arab Spring as “series of anti- government uprisings in various countries in North Africa and the Middle East, beginning in Tunisia in December 2010”. These movements have appeared following the self-immolation of a Tunisian street seller after being bullied in public by government policemen, on December 17th 2010. The goal of this phenomenon is to make important changes within these concerned countries in order to implement a liberal democratic system of governance (freedom of expression, respect of human rights, democracy, economical boost, etc.). This phenomenon spread to other countries and that is what we can now call the ‘Arab Spring’: the will of switching the regimes for democracy leading to the changes that has been occurring in these countries. 2.2.3.2. First Contestations in Egypt Compared to Tunisia, the Egyptian system seemed permissive and offered Egyptian a little more liberties. In the individual liberties ranking, Egypt was in third position after Kuwait and Lebanon writes Jon B. Alterman, (2011) in « Drawing the Wrong Lessons ». In fact, the Egyptian government understood it was impossible to dominate Medias due to the arrival of new technologies despite its will to control print media it as much as possible. In these past few years, portraits of the President were less and less seen in the Egyptian Medias as the government controlled it very closely and protests for injustice were growing. In 2012, David M. Faris, a political science professor at Roosevelt University, declared in “Beyond Social Media Revolutions: The Arab Spring and the Networked Revolt” that in 2008 we could count more than 160 000 Egyptian blogs, where 30 000 were about politics. In January 2010, more than 2.4 million people had a Facebook account, and more than 70% had satellite television, which allowed them to have access to uncorrupted information networks such as Al-Jazeera. Nevertheless, partial censorship persisted and police used Internet to counter opposition movements and stop homosexual regrouping. In June 2013, police officers had beaten to death the owner of a blog. In another perspective, Marie Duboc (2011) stated in “La contestation sociale en gypte depuis 2004. Précarisation et mobilisation locale des ouvriers de l'industrie textile” that numerous workers strikes appeared between 2006 and 2007, leading to 614 strikes a year. This was linked to the massive electoral fraud in 2006, the decrease of purchasing power because of the inflation (6.5%), as well as the fear of the consequences of public companies privatizations.
  • 19. 18 These important worker mobilizations, due to their number of participants and their intensity were a sign of the mobilization potential of “factory networks” including workers as well as their colleagues, their families and their friends. These networks facilitated the participation of movements by connecting individuals and change general perception on people about political action. 2.2.3.3. The Revolutions Indeed, several factors contributed to these mass uprisings. First of all, one the factors that helped was the governments’ political pluralism policy. Indeed, Egyptians were offended by the frauds in the election of November 2010. Then, two violent events targeting Christian Egyptians led to thousands of people protesting in the streets. On the 1st of January, the Medias around the world informed us of an explosion near a church killed 23 people and brought the population to ask for the dismissal of ministers. Ten days later, a police officer in the south of the country killed six Christians. This incident provoked a wave of uprisings, in Cairo and in Salamut. Finally, the victory of Tunisians against Ben Ali and its authoritarian regime gave them hope and power to protest through collective actions. Young Tunisian and Egyptian activists shared strategic information and advice. The 25th of January 2011, eleven days after the escape of Ben Ali, Egyptians went in the streets of Suez and Cairo to manifest their anger and against poverty. This happened the same day than the Police National day. They were heading to the Tharir Square, the emblem of the Egyptian independence, located in the center of Cairo. At that emblematic place, they made the promise to keep fighting until the Mubarak regime, which had been at power for 30 years, falls. Following those movements, some of the demands were granted such as the dismissal of ministers, a minimum wage, and a limit for the mandate of the President. For once, people that were opposed to the regime were highly empowered in comparison to the number of police officers. By changing the protests locations via mobile phones and Twitter, they managed to counter the police’s strategies. When we take a look at these manifestations, we notice that nothing had the possibility to discourage populations. The 10th and 11th February, strikes and uprisings occurred everywhere in the country. Celebrities, intellectuals and representatives of the Egyptian Trade Union Federation contributed to make more people manifest in the streets. That same day, Mubarak made a TV announcement, which is the last public apparition of the authoritarian leader. He declared leaving a part of its responsibilities to Suleiman. Deception led to anger and a new wave of protests appeared demanding the departure of the President. As a result the Council decided to end Mubarak’s power within Egypt. Military leaders sent Suleiman on television to announce that the executive power would, from now on, belong
  • 20. 19 between their hands for a period of time. The events following December 17th 2010 were called by different names such as “revolts”, “uprisings”, “manifestations”, “social movements” or “collective actions”. According to Hillman (1995), a revolution (turn around, from the Latin ‘revolution’) is a “fundamental change in power or organization structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time.” It is usually preceded by severe crisis or a high degree of dissatisfaction in a country. Indeed, studies point out the fact that international aspects, economics and politics would be possible factors for revolution due to pressures on these countries. The structure of today’s economy, with an increased competition, would have been a cause for these uprisings to happen. Malik and Awadallah (2011) highlight the fact that populations have become more educated at younger age with time. Therefore while the educational situation of the population and their knowledge was evolving, there was a clear mismatch with the economic structure, as it didn't respond to the needs of this growing knowledgeable population. Indeed sixty percent of this population younger than 30 years old has high aspirations and expectations that weren’t likely to be achieved with the current government and policy. This political and economic environment has particularly impacted the beginning of the uprisings. These events are the result of globalization, socio-political and economic factors. Countries were refusing to meet their population’s expectations affected by the global recession and crisis. This lack of security and human rights respect made people stand up for their rights. Moreover, according to the African Development Bank Group (2011), it is important to note the low standard of living in the Arab World. For instance the World Bank estimated that 19% of Egyptian lived with less than 2 dollars a day in 2005 and that 50% of these people were considered as poor. That means that a fluctuation in prices or price volatilities particularly has an impact this population. Moreover we can notice a huge gap between the poor population and the wealthy population living in the Middle East and more particularly in Egypt. Power and Money are often associated. However, different authors disagree about the essence of the Arab Spring that’s to say whether these events represent a revolution or not. That is the case of Bayat (2011), an expert on Middle East social movements and politics, which calls this phenomenon “Revolutions”, a mix between reform and revolution. He argues that by manifesting, populations are pushing the several governments to reform their actual and existing institutions instead of creating new ones. The change would therefore happen within the existing framework. On the other hand, Eisenstadt (1978) argues that a revolution occurs when a state or a country is not making proper use of its resources. This can be linked to the Middle Eastern and North African region where inhabitants were unhappy with the current economic situation. 2.2.3.4. Social Media Impact Furthermore, it is important to note the most unique feature of this Arab spring: the importance of social network and new technologies in this political mobilization. This phenomenon is very different from any previous revolutions and makes the Arab Spring
  • 21. 20 unique. Modern technology was definitely a catalyst in those protests with social media websites such as Facebook, Wikileaks and Twitter. It has not only permitted to express freely their discontent without the repression of the government but it has allowed demanding immediate change. Social Medias were used as an organization tool for people to meet and protest all together but also to have the international community attention. People were first informed of this “Arab Spring” via Facebook by receiving major invitations to protest in cities’ streets, by witnessing massive status updates and complaints about the Egyptian governments. The “cyberwar” has started as soon as Tunisian Mohamad Bouazizi passed away with Facebook pages such as “Mohamad Bouazizi: son of revolution”, “Bouazizi United” or “Bouazizi Tunisian Hero”. It is important to note that, without this new technology as a mean of communication, in countries where Media freedom of expression is more than limited, this popular movement would not have had such an important impact over the international Medias and therefore over the world. Ironically, the Libyan president’s son possessed the largest internet service provider in Libya and Bashar Al Assad was president of the organization that implemented internet in Syria. We can conclude that a revolution was on its way because of conflicts, mostly between governments and the masses. Their vision wasn’t shared by all and because of capitalism and international economic, political factors pressuring these countries. These countries were preconditioned to have uprisings, the events of the 17th of December 2011 was just something that added up to their frustration and spread.
  • 22. 21 Figure 1.4 - Theoretical framework of the Arab uprisings International Pressure International Factors Satisfying conditions for revolutions Unforseen events Revolutions Economy, Politics, Strategies, Competitions… Disparities between vision of government and populations, Authoritarianism, Lack of freedom… Death of merchant in Tunisia
  • 23. 22 2.2.4. The International Relations Theory As Kant (Perpertual Peace essay, 1795) suggested, countries where democracy exists are generally more peaceful within the concerned countries but also with other democratic states. In fact this is due to the fact that democracies work on resolving issues by negotiating and communicating instead of going to war or through violence. On the contrary autocratic and dictatorship regimes are more likely to use force in order to take advantage of something or threat. This is what has mainly happened in those countries where the different actors of those concerned Arab regimes have taken advantages on the population who “are supposed to follow their rules”. The second reason why democracies are less likely to go to war is that they are responsible of the cost of the war. Moreover as the cost is almost always more important than the benefits, it is therefore logical that war is the last likely options in case of tensions. But the most important feature of democracy that is advocated by the Arab revolts is the freedom of expression and the limited power of the government. In fact most dictatorship that have lasted all those years, have perpetuated because of the lack of external knowledge of the population. This seems fairly obvious as in such countries where the freedom of press is controlled and the access of Internet is clearly limited, especially for the older generation. However with the amazing rise of young generation under 25 using Internet and social network, there has been a clear realization of the discomfort. 2.2.4.1. Post-Arab Spring Implications A question that arises from these different points of views is will the different uprisings one day lead to democracy, as their future is still blurry? The future of these regions can’t be easily drawn due to their complexity and to the numerous variables involved in this phenomenon. Solid predictions can’t be made. The Arab Spring protests have expressed a rejection of authoritarian systems, which allowed the monopolization of political power by corrupt regimes. Old regimes such as Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, were swept away. But the problem is that these strong movements did not have any coherent political program nor proposed new socio-political model. Nowadays, in addition to persistent structural problems, the uncertainties keep increasing. In the international community mainly, but also internally, these uncertainties include the rise of Islamism in power. These uprisings have created mix results and stories, some are successful and others are frustrating. However, thanks to them, people don’t feel defenseless anymore and by uniting forces they can make a difference. The most visible outcome is the fall of dictators in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, peacefully or by the use of civil war. 2.2.4.2. Origins of Change We can define two major triggers that could lead to a change. They are quite opposed to each other but are necessary for a change to be done. These variables are dissatisfaction and inspiration. As long as people are unhappy with the current situation and that there is a discontent in the present period, a change can in fact occur. When individuals are convinced that the present state isn’t for their best interest and that they constantly dissatisfied, it is a
  • 24. 23 sign that something is wrong. In that case change can happen. Some social, political and economic factors can provoke dissatisfaction such as corruption, restriction, lack of human rights, political instability, lack of economical perspectives… According to Fawzia Zouari (2011), the uprisings that appeared in 2011 had for objective to show to the world these structural weaknesses. 2.2.4.2.1. Theories of Change Theories of Change concern 3 macroeconomic factors. First of all, there is a political factor where governments play a big role in the society, then a social, which highly influences change and finally an economic factor, notably highlighted by Marx (1859). His point of view was that people don’t wait for nature to resolve its problems by itself, but that these individuals would stand up, take control and regain their freedom. It relates to Marx’s theory of conflict (1859) stating that change is a necessity to initiate a social change and deal with inequalities. Goldstone (2011) defines appropriate conditions for the success of a revolution: “For a revolution to succeed: The government must appear so irremediably unjust or inept that it is widely viewed as a threat to the country's future; elites (especially in the military) must be alienated from the state and no longer willing to defend it; a broad-based section of the population... must mobilize; and international powers must... refuse to step in to defend the government.” We find the concept of elites alienation. This condition is inherent to the success of a revolution as it is the basis of the changes of the condition of access to the participation of the political system. The Theory of Social Movements states that individuals or groups can organize an effective social change by encouraging or discouraging change via social movements. It offers a framework to understand how and why individuals gather to solve a problem. Tilly and Tarrow (2006) identify protest, collective action and contention as 3 forms of political struggle. They define protest as a manifestation of objection, using words or action to face certain situations. Collective action takes place when people act in order to fulfill their interest, and contention are actions that a party demands that could affect multiple other parties’ interests. Moreover, they state that people with close relationships facilitate the beginning of a social movement. However, it is important to note that in the Arab Spring case, new media such as satellite television and Internet-based social media have been an important factor. They encouraged collective action by decreasing costs to make everyone aware and were easier to diffuse information. The Marxism theory (1859) believes that these social movements were the reason of unsolved conflicts in societies related to economy. It concerned the movements of society through various stages of conflict. That would mean that people are more likely to protest if they aren’t satisfied with their current economic and living conditions.
  • 25. 24 This brings up the collective behavior theory (Smelser - 1963), which was an early forerunner of this social movement theory. This theory states that a social organization shares values and norms and when a social norm changes it leads to a psychological strain necessary to push people to take action. However another author, Touraine (1981), explains that a change and a social movement isn’t necessarily a response to a situation but a way to get to a desired social change. 2.2.4.3. Sustaining a change Now that the change in these regions is occurring or has occurred, it is important to know what can be done to sustain this change. These events have given hope to populations located in these countries that believe that a change is possible. However, only 2 countries seem to be in a political transition while the others are still fighting for freedom. Sustaining a change reduces instability. Lewin’s 3 step model (1947) ensures that the change is sustained that is why he uses the ‘Refreeze’ step to support and maintain the change. That involves giving rewards to people that adhere to the new values and culture. In order for the change to be sustained, it is important that something is in place to maintain it in order to eliminate confusion. Previously, we have seen all the aspects of the Arab Spring, its origins, its characteristics, its implications, what is to be expected in the future the fact that it's an important social change. The important step now if we want to find the impact of the Arab Spring on the negotiation process is to analyze what is a negotiation exactly. We need to understand the different concepts and steps in order to be fully able to relate it to the Arab Spring. Negotiation is a particular dialogue between 2 or more parties that have specificities worth being highlighted. By having a clear overview of each of them, we will able to draw our interviews to know in which aspects and at what extent the Arab Spring has affected them. 2.2.4.4. Social Implications For Lewin (1947), ‘the intentional process of a radical social change demands continual tension or crisis’. A social change implies an alteration of certain behavior patterns or structure that is progressive durable at an economic, social, cultural and demographic level. Lewin developed in the 1940s a model that still applies nowadays where he describes the three-steps process of a change. He refers his theory as the unfreeze, change and refreeze model. The unfreeze stage deals with preparing people to accept that the change is a must. That involves pointing out the drawbacks of the old system and the advantages the change will give. To do so, the beliefs, behaviors, values and habits would have to change that is the reason why this step is the most difficult one. The next step concerning the change is successful as long as people understand how the change benefited them, they need to embrace it and participate actively. Finally, in the last stage, the refreeze one, the change is taking shape and people are starting to internalize it. This stability is necessary to refreeze the
  • 26. 25 change. If not, a new change wouldn't be possible in the future. It is important to take into account that a change is a difficult process because it makes people get out of their comfort zones and creates a conflict with their behavior and habits. 2.2.4.5. Political Changes The day after President Mubarak left the political scene; important political cleavages appeared in the Egyptian society. Subsequently interreligious violence in different regions rapidly arose which rapidly broke the mystic idea of unity. These acts, taking into account people supporting the Mubarak regime, former security agents or salafist affiliates showed that Egypt would have difficulties dealing with such divisions in the population. Moreover, there was a lack of unity in the same political parties and opposition groups. The actual situation in Egypt is very difficult to assess, as there are problems regarding accurate information given but also constant changes happening within the government. Indeed, by now the Egyptian government has changed approximately five times. More generally, when we evaluate the actual political consequences of the Arab Spring, we notice that in certain countries such as Tunisia and Libya, leaders were replaced by popularly elected bodies or by a transitional government. These countries have organized free and fair elections with high participation rates. Those methods have benefited Islamic movements that had been obstructed while presenting themselves to elections. When we take a look at Egypt’s parties during the first elections of the parliament we can see that it has increased. The Freedom and Justice Party led by the Muslim Brotherhood has won by 46% followed by the radical Salafis party. However, this elected parliament was dissolved. Regarding the implementation of a new constitution, Egypt has made a draft that has been approved at 64%. As a result number of parties in Egypt has increased. The moderate Islamist Ennahda won the elections with 41% of the votes. This created tensions with the Salafis, and it will need to be taken into account during the upcoming years. However, politics in the concerned countries of the Arab Spring is still very unstable.
  • 27. 26 Figure 1.5- Egypt’s first Islamist led parliament Furthermore it is important to note that in Syria a civil war is still happening causing disorder and humanitarian disaster. The situation following the revolutions is unpredictable. According to the United Nations, it has costs more than 60 000 lives so far and made flee hundreds of thousands. Moreover it has increased tensions with countries surrounding and in relations with Syria such as Lebanon where opposition between the pro-Assad and the ones that are opposed were reinforced. In Jordan, Morocco and Algeria, leaders have stayed but they have been forced to take immediate measures in order to bypass or limit the action of the Arab Spring and respond to social pressures. Regarding the protests in Bahrain and Kuwait, they have been stopped by the military intervention of Saudi Arabia.
  • 28. 27 2.2.4.6. Economic Changes Figure 1.6- Economic impact of the Arab Spring It is important to note that the Arab Spring has had an important impact over the economy of this particular region. Most GDPs have decreased. What’s more the economy of the region had also suffered from the Euro crisis due to their economical partnership. Furthermore production was stopped due to political upheaval: the oil production in Libya has stopped, there was a paralysis in Egypt’s production process due to strikes, the mining sector in Tunisia declined… Moreover it is important to highlight the fact that these countries were highly touristic and that tourism was an important part of their GDP, especially for Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan and Lebanon. This industry fell by one quarter for each country except for Egypt and Tunisia where it has been more substantial and has dropped by 40%. Finally, another important economical change was the decrease of the FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). This is mainly due to the reluctance of foreign investors to inject money in those countries following the instable context. In consequences globalization, competition, strategies and scarce resources have made complex, sectors, societies and countries. We can characterize the Arab Spring by being a change in population’s lives, at a national and international level. Therefore it is important to know what are the different steps to accomplish a change and how can it be sustainable. The
  • 29. 28 Arab Spring wouldn’t be necessary and useful if the aim wasn’t to achieve a sustainable change in people’s lives. We started by giving an overview of the situation in the Arab countries including Egypt before the uprisings. After that we highlighted the main characteristics of the Arab Spring: its origins, the events and the current situation at economical, political and social levels. Since we are trying to see the relationship between this phenomenon and business negotiations, we need to develop the negotiation concept. We will therefore divide the analysis of this next theme into four steps: the pre-negotiation process, the negotiations process itself, the outcomes and the particular case of negotiating in the Arabic World. 2.3. The Negotiation Process In this part we have decided to further focus on negotiation process as a whole than on intercultural negotiation analysis for our study; the Arab Spring may have affected every aspect of the negotiations. There are several definitions of negotiations. Robinson and Volkov (1998) define negotiations as “a process in which participants bring their goals to a bargaining table, strategically share information, and search for alternatives that are mutually beneficial”. On another hand Putnam and Roloff (1992) defined negotiation as “a form of communication that centers on perceived incompatibilities and focuses on reaching mutually acceptable agreements”. 2.3.1. The pre-negotiation process In order to focus on actual negotiations it is crucial to take a look at the antecedent variables of the negotiation. Our study will first introduce the main components of the pre-negotiation process and their importance for a sample of negotiators. This is very relevant to answer a part of our questions as we will need to evaluate if each ones of the pre-negotiation characteristics have evolved with the context of the Arab Spring. Moreover, we need to know how the people we interviewed used to prepare themselves for negotiations and how do they now prepare actual and future negotiations. It is possible that the context of political, social and economical change has modified some of the pre-negotiation characteristics when preparing to deal with another negotiating party. We need to understand which ones have been affected, how and why. A research conducted by Peterson and Shepherd entitled “Preparing to negotiate: an exploratory analysis of the activities comprising the pre-negotiation process in a buyer-seller interaction” (2010) identified, thanks to a sample of people facing daily business negotiations, the different characteristics in a pre-negotiation process according to four main phases: Information gathering activities, formulation activities, strategic development activities and preparation activities. Moreover, some activities were added by marketing faculty members, senior marketing management and study respondents that participated in the research.
  • 30. 29 According to those activities, the different 172 respondents were asked to select which activities they performed and did not performed in order to draw a table of pre-negotiation characteristics frequency following each of the four phases. The results being that those preparations are useful in several contexts, although the research has omitted an important context being the fact to negotiate in a strained atmosphere. However an important result was that the more a person is prepared for negotiation, the more he had chances of succeeding in this negotiation. Our proposition in this case, and due to some discussions we have had before going through with our thesis, is that with this context of change and tensions, as some companies do not believe in a stabilization of the countries while others focus on long-term deals in order to re- launch the economy, negotiation are facing more and more difficulties. Subsequently the frequency of pre-negotiation characteristics such as intelligence gathering, formulation and strategy may have increased to be even more prepared than they used to in order to face the increasing difficulties. We will then present in details those activities identified by Peterson and Shepherd (2010) in their academic study. 2.3.1.1. Information Gathering Activities Information gathering activities is, as stated, the gathering of information about the other negotiating party. It is in fact crucial, in order to benefit the negotiation context and process but also to have an advantage, to have information about the other party. It includes activities such as the collection of primary data (the client, the company you are dealing with, etc.), secondary data (the industry, the reputation, policies, annual reports, etc.), evaluating market conditions, knowledge of the negotiating party’s intentions and alternatives, a review of previous contact/relationships, possible strategies, understanding the decision-making process of the customer. 2.3.1.2. Formulation Activities While information gathering activities is more about anticipating what the other negotiating party might do or not do and its possible decisions and strategies, formulation activities is more about preparing our own actions and alternatives. It includes more or less the objectives, the possible issues that might come up and their limit levels, the bargaining mix, the responsibilities, the deadlines, the role of each person who attending the negotiation and the BATNA. The concept of BATNA has been developed by Roger Fisher and William Ury in the book Getting to YES: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In (1981). The acronym means Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement and is defined as “the alternative action that will be taken if your proposed agreement with another party result in an unsatisfactory agreement or when an agreement cannot be reached”. As a result the formulation phase is about anticipating the other party’s doubts and questions but also about preparing to have the best possible negotiation.
  • 31. 30 2.3.1.3. Strategic development activities For this pre-negotiation activity, it is necessary to prepare and foresee the possible strategies to be used while negotiating. First of all depending on the number of people involved, it is crucial to assign roles such as who will speak when during the negotiation, who will intervene on competitive aggressive strategies, who will intervene for cooperation, etc. Moreover it is important to be aware of possible trades-off. In this case people must be prepared to make some concessions and give some elements in return for something else, it is then important to define what could be given away. For Baarslag Hindriks and CM Jonker (2011), without concessions, a negotiation wouldn’t exist; it’s a matter of give and take. Indeed some strategies are characterized by making concessions. For example, Boulware and Conceder’s strategies are based on steady concessions all along the negotiation. Finally it will also be important to be aware of the presence of a possible third party that will have a role in the negotiation. 2.3.1.4. Preparation activities This last phase is the less frequent phase according to Peterson and Shepherd’s study (2010). However it includes some very important elements that are still used by many negotiators such as the formal opening statement of the negotiation, performed by more than half people in the study. The rest takes into account role play, preparing questions and answers for the other party involved, preparing visual materials and preparing a mutual interest of conversation. 2.3.2. Negotiating Guy Faure (1994) gives the following definition of negotiations: “Negotiations are processes of interaction between disputing parties whereby, without compulsion by a third party adjudicator, they endeavor to come to an interdependent, joint decision concerning the terms of agreement on the issues between them. (8:79)”. It is very interesting for us to understand the previous researches on this subject. According to the academic research entitled “Current trends in business negotiation research: An overview of articles published 1996-2005” (February, 2007) by Henrik Angdal from Stockholm School of Economics, researches including cultural context represent 36% of articles that have previously focused on the subject, negotiation issues and organizational variables. Some more indirect aspects can also be taken into account such as attitudes change, negotiation styles and strategies, variables relating to the relationship, negotiation behaviors before and during the negotiation, and negotiation outcomes. All those elements are relevant and very useful to our study. Angdal (2007) has provided an interesting research. First of all, he introduces the term of negotiation and the different relevant studies made on this subject from 1996 to 2005. Secondly and most importantly, the author provides a model of negotiation research including four main constructs to be taken into account. All the variables of those constructs are taken
  • 32. 31 into account as well as all the possible and relevant researches made regarding those variables. Their researches and results are then presented. Figure 1.7- Steps of the negotiation process 2.3.3. Outcomes of a Negotiation According to Angdal (2007) the negotiation outcomes depend entirely on the three other constructs of the negotiation model, the negotiation parties, the negotiation context and the negotiation process. Thus negotiation processes that will untimely have an effect on negotiations outcomes as it links those two variables are the negotiation types: integrative or distributive. In order to understand their effect on negotiations it is important to define them. First of all in a distributive situation, the goals of the two parties involved in the negotiation are distinct and generally in conflict. As a result and according to Lewicki, Saunders and John W. in their publication entitled Essentials of Negotiation (2010) “Each party will be likely to use a different set of strategies to maximize their share of resources to be obtained. As a result negotiations focus more on each party’s differences than what they have in common”. Therefore a distributive negotiation can be counter-productive, time-consuming and very costly. However it can also be useful if a company has the advantage over the other while
  • 33. 32 negotiation and wants to maximize the value of the deal. It can also be useful in the case of a negotiation that isn’t considered as important. On the other hand integrative (or collaborative) negotiation is typically a win-win situation where there is no looser and no winner over the negotiation. As a result the goals are similar and both sides make the same amount of concessions or do not make concessions to get what they want. Lewicki, Saunders and John W. (2010) define four major steps regarding collaborative negotiations: Identifying and defining the problem in a way that will define both sides, understanding the issue in order to bring needs to the surface to satisfy them, finding alternatives to the actual issues faced and finally evaluating the solutions for a satisfaction in both sides of the negotiations. The main goals is to have a win-win situation which can be different for everyone by which is defined as a favorable outcome for everyone involved in the process. There is then a concept of interest-based negotiation that often leads to cooperative outcomes therefore a win-win negotiation. Henrik Angdal (2007) provides different definitions of the outcome of a negotiation that can be considered. First of all an outcome is often defined economically or mathematically, therefore in quantitative and monetary terms. Secondly an outcome can very simply be a negotiation that ends with an agreement whether it is written, oral and so on. The form of the agreement does not matter much but the fact to end on an agreement in the important objective. Another very interesting outcome is the perception that the negotiation parties have of the negotiation itself, if the people involved are happy or not. The negotiation efficiency and productivity can be another important outcome measurement (time of negotiation, quantity of concessions and agreements, etc.). Finally the negotiation process type is seen as a measurement of a negotiation outcome with at the end the question of an integrative or distributive deal and agreement that the parties have agreed on. Fisher and Ury (1991) expose the concept of winning a negotiation. How can we know who “won”? They insist on the fact that such a concept doesn’t exist in negotiations. Indeed, what you are trying to win is a way to better negotiate. However a concept of win-win situation has appeared that can be defined as a situation where all participants are benefiting from the negotiation. 2.3.4. A particular case: negotiating in the Arab World Every country in the world has its own characteristics when it comes to negotiation. Even though we are living in a globalized world, cultural diversity still exists. Furthermore culture is still resisting to globalization and is becoming a major factor in international relations. If we understand the other party’s culture, it is a step towards a successful negotiation.
  • 34. 33 2.3.4.1. Negotiations in Egypt Egypt has a very rich and specific culture that has impacted the way people behave and therefore negotiate. It is crucial for us to understand some characteristics regarding how people face negotiations in this particular culture. Lothar Katz (2008) gives us some key elements to understand the different steps relevant to negotiate in Egypt such as the importance of relationships, respect of culture and religion, indirect communication, importance of meetings, negotiation styles and agreements. It is in fact important to know that the process of negotiation in very different from Western cultures. Therefore in order to evaluate the changes in negotiations due to the Arab Spring, we will first have to study negotiation in Arabic cultures and more specifically in Egypt. Indeed, each part of the world has its own ways of negotiating due to cultural differences. We cannot compare possible changes in negotiation affected by the Arab Spring context to negotiation that we have witnessed in Western countries. One of the first steps of our thesis is to introduce negotiation in the Middle East and in Arab countries. Subsequently we will be able to interview people in Egypt and evaluate the changes, their implications and their causes. However, we will have to note that our theories are a generalization of the way a negotiation works in Egypt and in Arabic countries in general. It is more a guideline of how to behave and what to do or not to do that we will use for comparison in our own research. It is therefore a generalization of the way people behave with no concrete examples or exceptions. However those guidelines will still be useful in order to understand the way negotiation works in those Arabic countries. Hofstede (1980) collected data from fifty countries and three regions and extracted similar characteristics to create four cultural dimensions influencing the way people act. It includes Power Distance, Individualism vs. Collectivism, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Femininity vs. Masculinity. Then he chose some countries of the Gulf Region including Egypt (1983). He concluded that the populations tend to be alike when he was taking into account their culture, religion, traditions, language and political systems. On this same note, in order to manage and understand cultural differences, Fons Trompenaars and Charles Hampden-Turner (1997) spent 10 years researching about the different preferences and values of people from different cultures. They found out seven dimensions that distinguish cultures: universalism vs. particularism, individualism vs. communitarianism, specific vs. diffuse, neutral vs. emotional, achievement vs. ascription, sequential time vs. synchronous time and internal direction vs. outer direction. Following these studies, Kristopher Blanchard, from North Central University, and Dr. Asma Abdullah (2006) provided an overview of the Arabic negotiating profile. As they state, many negotiators from these countries use mediators to settle possible conflicts or disputes. They gave the following profile: An Arab negotiator :  “Protects all the parties’ honor, self-respect, and dignity
  • 35. 34  Avoids direct confrontation between opponents  Is respected and trusted by all  Does not put the parties involved in a situation where they have to show weakness or admit defeat  Has the necessary prestige to be listened to  Is creative enough to come up with honorable solutions for all parties  Is impartial and can understand the positions of the various parties without leaning toward one or the other  Is able to resist any kind of pressure that the opponents could try to exercise on him  Uses references to people who are highly respected by the opponents to persuade them to change their minds on some issues  Can keep secrets and in so doing gains the confidence of the negotiating parties  Controls his temper and emotions  Can use conference as mediating devices  Knows that the opponent will have problems in carrying out the decisions made during the negotiation  Is able to cope with the Arab disregard for time” Katz (2008) has explained the importance of building a strong relationship and network through trust, respect of culture and religion, and cordial relations. A key characteristic of negotiation in those countries and specifically in Egypt in this part is that “Social interactions may be just as important as business contacts, if not more”. We then have an important part about communication. It not only includes the spoken and written language, which is Arabic, but also an indirect communication which is very important in Arabic countries. Any person who has spent time in those countries know that a “yes” doesn’t always mean yes and that “no” can be seen as a very offending term. According to Katz (2008) Arabic people are generally very positive. Finally body language and gesture are important characteristics of communication to take into account. Another important aspect of this particular type of negotiation is the initial greeting and contact, which is very important. Hierarchic status of people negotiating, titles of people, scheduling, introduction and so on can be part of a certain ritual. It is important to respect some traditions especially regarding the religion’s values and principles. Moreover Katz (2008) explains in his studies on International business negotiation in Egypt that negotiating in Arab countries means that a certain negotiation style must be adopted, such as the attitude while negotiating, the lack of information sharing, the slow and long-term pace of negotiation, the great advantage of bargaining that Arabic people have and finally the decision making phase. All those phases are briefly explained and more specifically the bargaining step which is very particular in Egypt and Middle East as it is a region where people are daily bargainers.
  • 36. 35 Finally the agreement importance is explained as well as the importance of the partner’s commitment rather than the written contract. 2.3.5. Intercultural Negotiations Culture is "that complex whole which includes knowledge, belief, art, morals, law, customs and other capabilities and habits acquired by man as a member of society" (E.B. Taylor, 1871). It can therefore influence negotiation that will impact the consequences and the outcomes of a negotiation. Studying the encounter of people coming from two different countries is relevant to our research problem, as intercultural negotiation has always appeared in any negotiation between two cultures. It is therefore anterior to the Arab Spring phenomenon. Intercultural negotiation “describes the negotiating relations between members of different ethnic groups and languages, interacting in an international context” (Marsen, 2006). We assume that difficulties and differences have evolved during the Arab Spring regarding intercultural negotiations but it is important to understand the basic dimension and characteristics of this type of negotiation, as it is common to find people from different cultures negotiating. A study made by Guy-Olivier Faure (1994) explains in a clear and simple way how cultural differences influence negotiations between two or more parties. It takes into account different variables that we will need to take into account in order to go deeper in our own research. In fact, intercultural negotiation is the consequence of several external factors. Culture affects negotiations at different levels and changes people’s perception. It includes the negotiators involved, the structure of the negotiation, the strategies used, the followed process and the result. Those elements are relevant for our studies as we need to know which one have evolved according to the Arab Spring. How does the other party involved face this change? How did they adapt their negotiation methods? Another relevant aspect of this study involves the influence level of culture on negotiation. In one of the articles studied the author, Victor Danciu (2009), explains four levels of culture that can impact negotiations. The probabilities of a major change of those levels due to the Arab Spring experience are very high. In fact the involvement of international help and the situation of foreign companies in countries facing economic and social crisis may have a high influence of cultural cognition and identity. Those are important levels of influence involved in intercultural negotiation. According to Danciu’s article, we will therefore divide the intercultural negotiation into three main parts. First of all let’s introduce the different types of cultures that can influence negotiations. It includes family, religion, organizational culture and professional activity. A same person can have different values and principles relatives to those different factors of influence and that creates relational tensions.
  • 37. 36 Then there is an important part on the different external and internal influence of culture on negotiation involving: - The negotiators themselves (how they interact with each other, how they perceive each other, interpretations, stereotypes, acceptable and unacceptable behaviors…), - The negotiation structure with the juridical or organizational process, the hierarchic position, the status and age importance, etc. - The strategies and tactics. In fact the goals of each parties involved are mainly affected but respective cultural principles and values. - The negotiation processes in order to exchange information, create options, divide resources or make concessions. In can be a real ritual. - And finally the result and the contract which can be perceived and applied in different ways. Finally, culture influences negotiation on many levels and gives the observer a very large panel of practices linked to the multicity of existing cultures and groups. This results in the observation of four levels of consequences on culture: cognition, believes, behaviors and identity. As a result the final step, which is important if we witness an impact of culture over negotiations, is the identification of the negotiation style as a result of cultural influences. In fact Shell (2006) has observed five styles of negotiations such as adaptation of negotiators, a behavior of issue avoidance, competition to gain something out of the situation and finally the comprise style to properly conclude a negotiation. According to the different types of cultural behaviors and influenced by Danciu (2009) in his article “The impact of the Culture on the International Negotiations”, we can link those causes of culture to the negotiations’ styles of Shell (2006).
  • 38. 37 Figure 1.8- Influence of culture over negotiation outcome We have seen all the important aspects of a negotiation for our study. Since we are living in a globalized world it is important to know those differences. We also chose to highlight the particularities of negotiating in the Arab World such as Egypt where our study will be mainly focused. After having dealt with the characteristics of the Arab Spring and the ones of a negotiation, certain insecurities or issue may arise. Indeed, the Arab Spring being an unstable and unsure environment could bring problems or conflicts while negotiating. This is why we need to take into account conflict management processes and we need to know how to prevent from conflicts while negotiating in such a tensed situation. 2.4. Conflict management/prevention As we have seen before and as we will strive to prove in our study, we assume that the Arab Spring context has brought some difficulties in negotiating, especially with foreign companies located in those countries. Therefore, with time, negotiators have had to work on conflict management and prevention in order to get to a long-term and peaceful agreement. In this part, we will learn about the process of positional bargaining in negotiation that does not tend to produce a good agreement. We have seen previously that a good agreement will be
  • 39. 38 reached when it will satisfy both parties and improve relationships. However, getting to this result may be tricky as some problems may appear. 2.4.1. Definition According to Folger, Poole and Stutman (1997) “Conflict is the interaction of interdependent people who perceive incompatible goals and interference from each other in achieving those goals.” It means that conflict is a difference between two or more persons or even groups that are confronted to disagreement, emotion, or tension. In this case, the bonds between people are broken which can lead to frustration or even pain. Conflict management includes reducing conflict within teams. It does not mean avoiding conflicts but rather facilitating resolution, identifying the social behavior reflected in conflict situations, supporting the creation of healthy argumentative cultures, being able to find consensus with others, aiming for win-win situations and reacting calmly to personal attacks. Those skills are to be taken into account. We then have to focus on the possible causes relative to negotiation conflict as a part of our research in order to draw conclusions. 2.4.2. Preventing a conflict In order to avoid a conflict situation there are a few steps to follow. One of the main rules is to use principles over positions. This is an important step that works on almost any type of conflict. Fisher, R., Ury, W. and Patton, B. (1991) states that whatever the other party does or intends to do, a party shouldn’t: - Bargain over positions, - Separate people from the problem, - Insist on the objective criteria - Invent options for mutual gain that must me use from both parties at each stage of the negotiation process. If these criteria are fulfilled it will prevent future conflicts. 2.4.2.1. Separate the people from the problem It is a common flaw that some people tend to always take problems too seriously and personally. It pushes them to misunderstand each other, feel mad or upset by finding ways to solve problems. However it also is a normal reaction as negotiators are people, meaning that they have feelings, emotions, values, sensitivity, backgrounds… These characteristics differ from a person to another and that is what makes them unique and therefore unpredictable. As we have said previously, a negotiation seeks to start or foster a long-term relationship where parties respect and understand each other. It is possible that a negative impressions or a misunderstanding leads to a prejudice. In this case, it becomes hard to deal with the other party and the outcome may be bad. Therefore, at every step of the negotiation, it is important to ask yourself questions about how well are you paying attention to person in front of you.
  • 40. 39 Each side has the same interest which is reaching an agreement and having a good relationship while negotiating, this is why understanding the perception of the other side is not optional. It is important to deal with every aspects of the person in front of you, that is to say taking into account his feelings, emotions and try to put yourself into his shoes. If this step is well done, it would help preventing a conflict that could be initiated by a misunderstanding or a lack of communication. However, it is important to keep an eye on the agreement and not pay too much attention on the other side psychology. 2.4.2.2. Focus on interests In a negotiation, one of the most common issues is the fact that each party has different needs and desire that creates a conflict as they may diverge in different directions. This can cause people to take different decisions and actions. Therefore to reconcile interests several positions should be examined in order to satisfy them, or even find an alternative one. The key is therefore to identify these different interests and to communicate about them. 2.4.2.3. Invent options for mutual gain At one point, in a negotiator life, he will be faced with a situation where there are no possible solutions that will satisfy him or the counterparty. In this case each party won’t be receiving what they initially wanted. The authors Fisher and Ury (1991) identified major obstacles that inhibit the finding of solutions. First of all, as one can be influenced by the external context of the negotiation such as stress, it is important to separate the process of choosing an option that could have been invented under pressure from the process of judging it. Secondly, people tend to think that the outcome of a negotiation is to find a single best answer. This is clearly an error. The key is to broaden the possible solutions in order not to be stuck in a situation that does not work. Then it is necessary to search for mutual gains. Finally, each side must not only be concerned with its own interests only. 2.4.2.4. Insist on using objective criteria Trying to reconcile differences and resolve conflict is hard. In these cases, negotiators tend to use the “positional bargaining”. This is one of the common errors while negotiating. This concept can be mistaken for a good agreement. It can be defined as a “win-lose against a win- win situation” meaning that each party is holding on to an idea or a position regardless of any underlying and common interests. This is often seen when people bargain and negotiate about a price. Each side starts at a given price, and as the process continues making some concessions or even a compromise. It can be considered not as a good constructive and efficient strategy. Cutts (2008) provides an explanation of the process of “positional bargaining” and the following reasons why this process results in a non-beneficial bargain.
  • 41. 40 This strategy is usually adopted while entering a negotiation. As the negotiation goes, parties become more attached to their ideas and defend them; therefore people tend to become stubborn which will harm the parties’ relationship. If the relationship is harmed then each party would try to pursue their own interests and therefore it will be difficult to reach an agreement. This objective criterion has to satisfy every side and must be legitimate and objective such as scientific findings. The negotiating parties may have diverging interests but they need to find a shared goal. The important thing that to keep in mind at all times is to be open-minded to propositions and not to respond to threats or bribery. In this case, the person who insists on doing a negotiation with principles will bring others around to join him since it becomes the only way to advance their interests. 2.4.3. Skills needed Instinctively, human seek to run away from conflicts. It is a logical reaction as our brains tells us that conflicts are sources of danger. However it has been noted that conflict is a driver of change. In a case of conflict, people tend to be more creative and innovate in order to get out of the conflict. It brings people together and improves performances. To this end it is essential for leaders to translate this conflict into performance. This is the goal of conflict management: mastering the issue to turn it into a force. A successful way of resolving conflict depends on the ability of managing stress and emotions. By doing so, it will be possible to have a correct and appropriate verbal and non-verbal communication without the other to feel punished or frightened. In other words it is important to listen attentively the feelings of the others as well as what they are saying. Finally, being open-minded and respectful of differences is a must that will help resolve the issue. Hudson and Grishkam (2005) provided a portrait of the skills needed. They stated that people with strong leadership skills could be more effective. As organizations are becoming flatter, culturally rich, geographically diverse, and intensely competitive, the possibilities for potential conflicts are greater, and negotiators must have sufficient competencies to lead in such situations. Their paper reflects on three complementary leadership competencies that are addressed in worldwide competency standards, that of, conflict management, negotiation, and effective communication, which the authors argue are not well-represented in the National (Australian) Competency Standards for Project Management. These skills have been found by the authors to be most useful in practicing project management. To manage conflict a leaders must understand the basics of a negotiation theory and effectively communicate. This paper discusses some recognized negotiation techniques, and useful communications skills that will enhance the ability of leaders to be more effective not only in conflict management. A conflict is more than a disagreement; it is a situation where parties feel threatened or misunderstood. If those aren’t solved, they can evolve and become worse. As we are facing them, each human have different reactions. Our background, our emotions, feelings, culture