The document summarizes a historical case study of decision making during a disaster in Lisbon, Portugal in 1755. A massive earthquake and resulting fires and tsunami destroyed the city, killing thousands. The king reacted poorly by doing nothing, while Sebastiao Jose De Carvalho E Melo took charge and responded rationally by ordering the dead to be buried and living fed. While people are not perfectly rational under stress, Carvalho's decision-making best followed the rational model. The event highlights how leadership and decision making can impact outcomes during crises when quick, thoughtful action is required.

1. A Study of Decision Making During Times of Extreme Duress
by Zachary Ness-Deden
1
Given the popularity of the “zombie apocalypse” and end-of-times themes
these days, wouldn’t it be interesting to see how real historical figures made
decisions during a truly horrific event? This summer Kathryn Schulz published a
piece in the New Yorker that “scared the living bejeezus out of [people] by
describing the aftermath of the coming Cascadia megathrust earthquake in gut-
wrenching detail”2. Just writing about the possibility of a 9.0 earthquake is enough
1
(2013). File:Apocalypse vasnetsov.jpg - Wikimedia Commons. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Apocalypse_vasnetsov.jpg.
2
(2015). Could a Catastrophic Earthquake Really Destroy Seattle?. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/07/kathryn_schulz_s_new_yorker_story_
on_pacific_northwest_earthquake_geologists.html.

2. to shake people up. Looking back through the annals of history, there is an
example of just what happens to a major western city when disaster strikes. This
historical episode presents a clear casestudy illustrating how different people react
when placed in leadership roles, their ability to remain rational, and their
susceptibility to errors in decision-making.
Travel back in time two hundred and sixty years to the year of seventeen
fifty-five. It is common knowledge that the Portuguese have long been strong
supporters of the Catholic Church. The day when the megathrust earthquake
struck was November 1st, a high church holiday when everyone is required to be at
Mass3. It is easy to imagine the incense-filled air and Latin-speaking priest going
through the holy rites until 9:40am4, when the ground began to shake. The
earthquake was so strong that it caused the ground to behave like a liquid through a
process called soil liquefaction.5 Needless to say, the building codeof 1755 was
not designed to withstand such a shock, and churches where parishioners were
3
(2011). All Saints' Day - Catholic Online. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from
http://www.catholic.org/saints/allsaints/.
4
(2012). Lisbon, Portugal 1755 - SMS Tsunami Warning. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from http://www.sms-
tsunami-warning.com/pages/tsunami-portugal-1755.
5
What is soil liquefaction. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from
http://www.ce.washington.edu/~liquefaction/html/what/what1.html.

3. praying collapsed, killing thousands.6 Gigantic fissures of up to 15 feet7 wide tore
open in Lisbon.
Worsestill, the megathrust was only the opening act of the horror show.
The cooking fires and candles lit to celebrate the holiday also moved during the
quake, and soonfound more fuel provided by the ruins of the buildings. A strong
wind blew off the sea, and soonthe fire reached catastrophic proportions. All of
the downtown including the Royal palace and cathedral burned8. Enter the third
and final act of the immediate tragedy: threatened by fire and unwilling to trust the
Earth below, the safety of the harbor was a glistening beacon of hope for the
people of Lisbon. However, a tsunami caused by the quake was described as being
of such a force that people galloping on horses to higher ground were barely able
to escape9; again a significant portion of the population perished. The end result of
the megathrust quake, resulting fire, and tsunami was the total destruction of one of
the premiere capitals of Europe that one could rightly describe as apocalyptic.
Now that the scene has been set, we can safely assume this disaster was not
a simple routine matter with an established decision rule. Possibility of failure
6
(2015). Lisbon earthquake of 1755 | Portugal | Britannica.com. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from
http://www.britannica.com/event/Lisbon-earthquake-of-1755.
7
(2012). Lisbon, Portugal 1755 - SMS Tsunami Warning. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from http://www.sms-
tsunami-warning.com/pages/tsunami-portugal-1755.
8
(2002). Historical Depictions of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from
http://nisee.berkeley.edu/lisbon/.
9
Viana-Baptista, M. (2006). Tsunami Propagation Along Tagus Estuary. Retrieved from
http://tsunamisociety.org/245baptista.pdf.

4. existed, and there was a high degree of ambiguity. Faced with a series of complex
decisions requiring creative solutions, coupled with the fact that any delay
increased the likelihood of the outbreak of disease and or the complete breakdown
of social order, let’s examine how the powerful reacted.
The King and family went to a sunrise mass that day and were safely out of
town10when the tragedy hit. The blue-blooded king was at a loss as to what a
leader should do. Faced with a constant stream of bad news and priests talking of
the coming of the Apocalypse, the king was impotent, doing what no leader should
during a crisis: he cowered11. The Harvard Business Review has never published
the recommendation of adapting a weak posture during times of crisis.
Enter the hero of this story, Sebastiao Jose De Carvalho E Melo, 1st Marquis
of Pombal. The king ventures, “What is to done to meet this infliction of divine
justice?”12, to which the Sebastiao Jose De Carvalho E Melo replied, “ bury the
dead and feed the living13”. In taking command of the situation, Carvalho’s
resulting solution was more nuanced than portrayed; it was at this critical juncture
where the secondarydangers where mitigated by the intervention of a strong
leader.
10
(2005). Lisbon Earthquake | Lisbon Guide. Retrieved August 6, 2015, from http://www.lisbon-
guide.info/about/lisbon_earthquake.
11
(2012). The Last Day: Wrath, Ruin, and Reason in the Great Lisbon
12
(2012). The Last Day: Wrath, Ruin, and Reason in the Great Lisbon
13
""Bury the dead and feed the living" | ReVista." 2014. 6 Aug. 2015
<http://revista.drclas.harvard.edu/book/bury-dead-and-feed-living>

5. The Rational Model states that people are completely lucid, consider all the
options, and can/will make calculations to choosethe best option14. It is highly
doubtful that the King was using the Rational Model, since high-stress situations
lead to a form of tunnel vision where your attention narrows significantly15. This
is evident in his decision not to fulfill his role as leader of a people. Sebastiao Jose
De Carvalho E Melo came the closest to using the Rational Model when he
sponsored asurvey of parishes about the earthquake’s damages and cause16.
The Bounded Rationality Model suggests that people take the first
satisfactory alternative, have a rather simple worldview, are okay with not
calculating alternatives, and use heuristics17. This model presents a better
explanation of the King’s behavior; you can see that the King leapt at Carvalho’s
idea since it was the first actual solution that solved the equation. Given the risk
and chaos facing the King and Carvalho in the ensuing aftermath, a sane decision
maker would be forced to acceptthat being supremely rational18 would not be
14
"Rational Decision Making Models." 2006. 7 Aug. 2015 <http://www.decision-making-
confidence.com/rational-decision-making-models.html>
15
"Judgment and Decision-Maiking Under Stress - Centers for ..." 2012. 7 Aug. 2015
<http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/mining/UserFiles/works/pdfs/jadmus.pdf>
16
"The Last Day: Wrath, Ruin, and Reason in the Great Lisbon ..." 2012. 7 Aug. 2015
17
Jones, BD. "BOUNDED RATIONALITY - Princeton University." 1999.
<http://www.princeton.edu/~smeunier/JonesBounded1.pdf>
18
"BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE." 7 Aug. 2015
<https://books.google.com/books?id=oX5EBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA31&lpg=PA31&dq=Constraints+force+a+d
ecision+maker+to+be+less+than+completely+rational&source=bl&ots=AOSDpqA9XR&sig=h2n34Nx6jSd
Y4NuCVAD1_z44kBk>

6. humanly possible. The use of heuristic shortcuts have long aided us in the decision
making process,but there are known drawbacks.
Groupthink is another common decision making pitfall. A prime example of
this is the clergy of the Roman Catholic Church, who had been preaching the
coming of all sorts of negative things becausepeople were not being pious enough.
The fact that most the churches were destroyed and the brothels survived largely
intact19 does smack of a spiteful God. The Confirming-Evidence Trap states that
we make up our mind first then go looking for evidence to supportour
conclusion20. One can see that preaching fire and brimstone and then seeing the
apocalyptic destruction of Lisbon during a high church holiday definitely
confirmed the beliefs of many of the cloth that it was time to prepare for the end of
days. Though it may have seemed logical to the religious people of the time, this
groupthink mentality had the potential to cause unnecessary panic and made it
even more important for the King and Carvalho to act quickly to restore order.
“The expected never happens; it is the unexpected always.21” - John
Maynard Keynes. We know intuitively that people are not always rational, nor is
the antithesis, the so-called “Garbage Can Method”, prevalent either. Be it an
19
"November 1, 1755: The Earthquake of Lisbon - Scientific ..." 2015. 7 Aug. 2015
<http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/history-of-geology/november-1-1755-the-earthquake-of-lisbon-wraith-
of-god-or-natural-disaster/>
20
"The Hidden Traps in Decision Making - HBR." 2014. 7 Aug. 2015 <https://hbr.org/2006/01/the-hidden-
traps-in-decision-making>
21
"Some favorite quotes - Now and the Future." 2006. 7 Aug. 2015
<http://www.nowandfutures.com/quotes.html>

7. advancing undead or California dropping into the ocean that is threatening our
ability to cope, we will fall back on our hard-wired shortcuts in times of duress.
Thus the Bounded Rationality Model offers a window into how decision makers
will think when the stakes are high, risk of failure is present, and time is of the
essence. When the going gets tough, we rely on heuristics to pull us through to
live another day. The trick is to recognize when those shortcuts lead to a
detrimental outcome and avoid another trap. Learning from history can aid today’s
crisis managers in making good decisions.