Back in mid-July, I wrote this out of frustration and then sent it to about a dozen 2016 Presidential candidates. I do not have any concerns or benefits, just wonder why such an obvious solution seems to be absent from both parties. And want to thank Ben Carson for finally saying the 'I' word at the 9/16 debate. My personal goal was to see if I could get ANY candidate of either party to actually mention Indexing. Not sure that he did it because of what I sent him, but really don't care how the conversation gets started. Thanks Dr. Carson.
Federal Minimum Wage: The Case for Geographic Indexing
1. 1Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
Date: Summer 2015
Presentation to:
Chief Innovation
Jay Martin
Dallas, Texas
Federal Minimum Wage Law
in the United States
Geographic Indexing
The only ‘correct’ solution isn’t
even being discussed
2. 2Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
Both sides of the political spectrum have staked out their ground.
And they both have good motivations with meritorious claims.
Minimum Wage The Argument
Raise It
Championed by Democrats
(Progressives, Leftists, Labor
Leaders….)
America’s lowest income earners
need a raise. Wages are below time
indexed rates from our most
productive and prosperous decades.
Corporate profits are at all time highs,
and increasing salaries reduces social
spending.
Don’t Change It
Championed by Republicans
(Conservatives, Businesses, Free
Market believers)
Raising wages kills jobs. The market
dictates wages, and burdening
businesses with a higher commodity
price only results in less use of them.
With offshore opportunities the jobs
will leave our shores forever.
Both sides are correct in their logic (to an extent), but both sides are
wrong with respect to their ‘solution’ to the problem.
3. 3Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
You most likely believe one of two things regard the current Minimum
Wage in the United States. Whether it is right or wrong is irrelevant.
Minimum Wage Two Major Beliefs
# Belief Usage of Law Flaw
1
Minimum Wage is a
tool to manage
overall wages for
the bottom rung of
our society across
the entire country
This was not the intent
of the law, but this is
what it has become.
And this belief will not
be reversed anytime
soon by the majority.
Ignores basics of cost of
living, need to enable
non-family people’s
(e.g. teenagers) entry
into the work force.
2
Minimum Wage is a
floor for the lowest
skilled in the least
expensive part of
the country to enter
the labor market
The law was meant to
be a floor, from which
local areas could set a
higher one, but not
violate this. Some do,
while others do not.
Ignores cost of living
and individual life style
specifics (i.e. family
situation, age)
4. 4Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
If you believe that the minimum wage should be used to impact all
Americans (or accept this belief by the majority of others)…
• The Federal Minimum Wage law should recognize and help families with
children, not just kids in part-time jobs not contributing to the household.
• Disparities in cost of living both geographically and for life choices
(marriage, family, multi-family) need to be addressed.
• America has a huge disparity in the ‘value’ of the dollar in terms of cost of
living. Manhattan is almost 3x of Harlingen, Texas. Minimum wage
($7.25/hour) in Manhattan is really less than $2.70 in Harlingen dollars.
The reverse would show that the current minimum wage in Harlingen
would be the equivalent of needing to earn $19.72 in Manhattan.
• By setting a Federal Minimum Wage, without any additional provisions to
accommodate cost of living, residents of some of the poorest areas will
have opportunities eliminated, especially on the Mexican border.
• No one wants to punish the counties that border Mexico (or other
impoverished U.S. counties) and destroy opportunities for the residents.
Minimum Wage Implications of Belief in Number 1
But there is a solution that should make sense to everyone…….
5. 5Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
Geographic Indexing
• Retain the current Federal Minimum Wage as a base, but implement a
gradual increase requirement by counties and county-equivalents (3,143
across the United States) indexed by cost of living.
• Under this plan, 3,142 counties would have to raise their minimum wage,
while one (or a few) would get to remain at its current level. The amount
of the increase would reflect the local cost of living.
• This plan raises people to a salary commensurate with the cost of living
where they live. After it is implemented, then national cost of living
adjustments of the minimum wage should be discussed.
• The plan has additional details (next page) regarding its implementation
and further management. Primary goals are forecast ability of impacts
along with eliminating political theater.
• County (and county equivalents, e.g. Parishes and District of Columbia)
are the focus, but cities and towns would not be precluded from raising
theirs above the county they reside in if they so choose.
Minimum Wage The ‘Real’ Solution
6. 6Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
Geographic Indexing - Specifics
Transition Time
• a) Target time for all counties to move their minimum wages to parity with cost of living off the base amount.
Should be at least 3 years (preferable) but not more than five. Could depend on degree of change (large
disparities permitted longer time frames)
Geography Selection
• b) Be done at the county level. State is too broad and the city/town level is too cumbersome. That is not to
say that cities couldn't vote to be even higher than their indexed value if they so choose.
Complexity Reduction
• c) Provide counties with the opportunities to 'merge' if they are within 5% of each other. Example, if six
counties in Iowa are all close, but not exact, allow for a single value at the top of the conversion so as to avoid
confusion in that area of the state over what the minimum wage will be. Counties with large disparities in cost
of living may choose (e.g. Howard versus Montgomery in Maryland) to have a different one to lure jobs into
the cheaper one, or may wish to merge theirs so as to assist their own residents at the lower end and possibly
drive up housing prices. Voters would get to choose.
Base Line for Index
• d) A standard benchmark for both the base rate and each counties index should be selected and monitored,
that is immune to political interference. This will not be easy, but is not impossible.
Future Increases – Timing Cycle
• e) And finally we should have a 3 to 5 year increase cycle, so as to avoid the political theater and games used
to distract people. Some measure to 'freeze' it should also be allowed with votes in Congress or Senate if
circumstances justified it (some will always say they do), but I believe in what I describe as Wall Street
forecasting. They like good news, they can handle bad news, but hate the unknown. Businesses would
prefer that they don't have to raise costs, but they can most likely handle knowing that small COLAs will be
required as well as its timing. Stopping this increase should become the exception, not the norm.
Minimum Wage The Solution - Specifics
7. 7Jay Martin Summer 2015 Federal Minimum Wage.ppt
Both sides win per their claim to ‘help’ Americans.
Minimum Wage The Benefits
Democrats
• 99.97% of Counties will raise
their minimum wage.
• Millions of workers will get a
‘raise’.
• Negative impact to ‘jobs’ should
be reduced.
• Republicans should join them in
making this a reality.
Republicans
• Businesses in high risk locations
(like Mexican border) should
have limited (to no) impacts.
• Labor costs become more
predictable. Political football
taken off the table.
• Should reduce overall social
program spending needs.
Most of all, the U.S. economy wins, with a sensible solution to a
complicated problem being misaddressed by almost all politicians.
I personally have no ‘dog in this fight’, just wondering why the 2016
candidates of both parties are ignoring an obvious solution.