Fastjet Zimbabwe recorded $0.3 million in revenue since commencing operations in October 2015, with an operating loss of $4 million, as the new airline began flights between Harare, Victoria Falls, and Johannesburg. The performance in the first few months of operations was described as "encouraging" by Fastjet, with 91% of flights arriving on time. However, the Zimbabwe operation was not included in Fastjet's key performance indicators for 2015 as it only became operational in October.
In this issue of RikvinCONNECT, we bring you the following topics:
- Singapore Budget 2016: Overview of Tax Changes for Businesses and Individuals
- Singapore Budget 2016: Sector-specific Changes
- Singapore Employment Act: Changes from April 1, 2016
- Singapore Employment Act: Administrative Penalties for Civil Breaches
A digital copy of the BH24 (27 November 2015 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
The Adani Group and Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) are looking at various
equity options for their Rs. 46bn, five-million-ton-per-annum liquefied natural gas terminal at
the Mundra special economic zone in Gujarat.
This document brings together a set of latest data points and publicly available information relevant for Travel & Transportation Industry. We are very excited to share this content and believe that readers will benefit from this periodic publication immensely.
New base 08 august 2019 energy news issue 1265 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
Greetings
Attache our regular issues of the latest energy news FYI.
NewBase Energy News 08 August 2019 - Issue No. 1266 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
Regards
In this issue of RikvinCONNECT, we bring you the following topics:
- Singapore Budget 2016: Overview of Tax Changes for Businesses and Individuals
- Singapore Budget 2016: Sector-specific Changes
- Singapore Employment Act: Changes from April 1, 2016
- Singapore Employment Act: Administrative Penalties for Civil Breaches
A digital copy of the BH24 (27 November 2015 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
The Adani Group and Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) are looking at various
equity options for their Rs. 46bn, five-million-ton-per-annum liquefied natural gas terminal at
the Mundra special economic zone in Gujarat.
This document brings together a set of latest data points and publicly available information relevant for Travel & Transportation Industry. We are very excited to share this content and believe that readers will benefit from this periodic publication immensely.
New base 08 august 2019 energy news issue 1265 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
Greetings
Attache our regular issues of the latest energy news FYI.
NewBase Energy News 08 August 2019 - Issue No. 1266 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
Regards
A digital copy of the BH24 (29 January 2016 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 15:30hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the BH24 (06 January 2016 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 15:30hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the BH24 (1 February 2016 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 15:30hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the Business News 24 (11 June edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news
A digital copy of the Business News 24 (27 June edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the Business News 24 (25 July edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
In this edition, you will be enlightened on the cornerstone of international aviation which is the Bilateral Air Service Agreement, commonly referred to as BASA, Africa’s plan for a common airspace and taken on a tour of the Eastern Highlands and the new sky
A digital copy of the BH24 (29 January 2016 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 15:30hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the BH24 (06 January 2016 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 15:30hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the BH24 (1 February 2016 edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 15:30hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the Business News 24 (11 June edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news
A digital copy of the Business News 24 (27 June edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
A digital copy of the Business News 24 (25 July edition). Zimbabwe's premier business news free sheet published by the Zimpapers Newspapers Group (1980) Limited and available every week day from 1530hrs to give a summary of the day's business news.
In this edition, you will be enlightened on the cornerstone of international aviation which is the Bilateral Air Service Agreement, commonly referred to as BASA, Africa’s plan for a common airspace and taken on a tour of the Eastern Highlands and the new sky
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024Lital Barkan
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What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
In this comprehensive presentation, we will explore strategies and practical tips for enhancing profitability in small businesses. Tailored to meet the unique challenges faced by small enterprises, this session covers various aspects that directly impact the bottom line. Attendees will learn how to optimize operational efficiency, manage expenses, and increase revenue through innovative marketing and customer engagement techniques.
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
What is Enterprise Excellence?
Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
What might I learn?
A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
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Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
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1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
Fastjet Zimbabwe posts $0,3m revenue
1. By Tawanda Musarurwa
HARARE – Budget airliner,
fastjet Zimbabwe recorded
revenues of $0,3 million since
commencing operations in
October, according to the
group’s full year results to
December 31, 2015.
“Fastjet Zimbabwe commenced
services in October 2015. It
reported revenues of $0,3 mil-
lion (2014: $nil) and an oper-
ating loss before exceptional
items of $4 million for the
year (2014: $nil),” said the
group in its financial results
statement.
Fastjet executive chairman
Mr Colin Child said the move
to launch the Zimbabwean
operation was an “important
News Update as @ 1530 hours, Thursday 02 June 2016
Feedback: bh24admin@zimpapers.co.zwEmail: bh24feedback@zimpapers.co.zw
Fastjet Zimbabwe posts $0,3m revenue
Mr Colin Child
2. achievement” for the company.
“Launching a second fast-
jet airline was an important
achievement with fastjet Zim-
babwe being granted its Air
Operators Certificate in Octo-
ber 2015, fastjet Zimbabwe
commenced services between
Harare and Victoria Falls three
times a week.
“In January 2016, the airline
was issued with a Foreign
Operators Permit by the South
African authorities to operate
flights between Harare and
Johannesburg in South Africa,”
he said.
The group said fastjet Zimba-
bwe’s performance in the few
months was “encouraging”.
“Punctuality in the first
months of operation has been
encouraging, with 91 percent
of flights arriving on time,” it
said.
The Zimbabwe operation,
which only became opera-
tional in October last year,
was however not included in
the group’s key performance
indicators (that are critical in
measuring underlying perfor-
mance).
Nonetheless most of these key
performance indicators were
largely positive. For instance,
fastjet’s passenger numbers
grew 30 percent from 597 432
in 2014 to 781 238 in the year
just ended.
Revenue per passenger was
however down 8 percent to
$82,74 in 2015 from $89,98 in
the previous year.
Seats flown during the period
under review grew by 44 per-
cent to 1,17 million from 814
465 in 2014. For the year, the
group reported a loss after tax
of $21,9 million, down from a
loss after tax of $72,1 million
in 2014, although revenues
were up 17 percent at $65,1
million.
Fastjet, which announced the
departure of chief executive
Ed Winter earlier in March,
said it was in the advanced
stage for recruitment of a new
chief executive. Going forward,
fastjet says expects to remain
cash flow negative in 2016
“The seasonal increase in pas-
senger numbers experienced
in prior years during the first
quarter has not occurred in
2016 reflecting this prolonged
downturn. Accordingly, Fastjet
expects to report a trading
loss and to remain cash flow
negative in 2016,” said Mr
Child.●
2 news
5. BH24 Reporter
HARARE - Diversified group,
ART Corporation has regis-
tered improved profitability
for the half-year to March 31,
2016 after posting a profit of
$892 000 up from a loss of
$114 000 prior year compar-
ative.
The company attributed the
improved performance to fac-
tory upgrades done last year,
as well as to “the cost-con-
tainment strategy arising
out of the restructuring of
the group, said chairman Mr
Thomas Utete Wushe in a
statement accompanying the
results.
The group’s revenues during
the period however declined
slightly to $14,1 million down
from $14,8 million prior year
comparative, largely due to a
decrease in sales in Zambia.
ART managed to reduce its
cost of sales to $8, 7 million
from $9, 9 million resulting in
improved gross profit to $5, 3
million from $4,8 million.
But the company’s balance
sheet remains frail with cur-
rent liabilities of $16,3 million
higher than current assets of
$9,2 million. Cash genera-
tion from operations has also
weakened to $615 000 from
$2,26 million.
All of ART’s operations with
the exception of the planta-
tions in Mutare recorded prof-
its before tax. The Batteries
division posted a profit before
tax of $985 000 due to a 6
percent rise in factory sales
volumes and steady sales at
Battery Express as well as
higher factory efficiencies at
the Chloride factory, the com-
pany said.
The Paper Division recorded
a profit before tax of $22 000
compared to a loss of $220
000 in the prior comparable
period. Eversharp posted a
profit before tax of $465 000
from $176 000 in the prior
year.
But the Plantations in Mutare
posted a loss before tax of
$168 000 due to a fire loss
in October last year of $174
000. The group expects the
re-capitalisation of the Chlo-
ride factory to be completed
in the second half of the
year.●
ART Corporation posts H1 profit
5 news
8. By Funny Hudzerema
HARARE – Listed agro-con-
cern, CFI Holdings recorded
a loss of $3, 3 million down
from a loss of $3, 7 million for
the half year ended 31 March
2016.
Revenue for the group however
came down to $19, 1 million
from $34, 2 million previously.
And the firm posted an oper-
ating loss before depreciation
and financing costs (EBITDA)
of $4, 6 million against $1, 9
million in prior year.
In a statement accompanying
the group’s financial results
CFI Holdings acting chairman
Mrs Grace Muradzikwa said
the group's performance was
weighed down by overall low
capacity utilisation, subdued
margins and streamlining costs
incurred in the second quarter.
CFI’s revenue declined by 63,
6 percent, 50, 3 percent and
33, 8 percent for the Poultry,
specialised and retail divi-
sions, respectively due to the
combined effect of a slowdown
in overall consumer demand
and inadequate working capital
during the period.
Financing costs for the period
decreased to $0, 7 million
against $2, 1 million incurred
in the comparable period
resulting in a loss after tax for
the half-year of $6, 1 million
against $3, 8 million posted in
prior period.
The Group's total borrowings
were declined to $4, 1 million
from $19 million as a result of
the $16 million debt assumed
by Fidelity Life Assurance
effective 17 October 2015.
Going forward, the firm is
targeting to invest in different
projects through disposing
parts of other land it owns in
order to capitalise.
“The group also secured firm
interest for purchase of its
residual 19 percent stake in
Langford Estates valued at $4,
3million, 10 percent stake in
Beira Grain Terminal and some
land banks for $1, 9 million, all
of which will assist in resolving
various funding commitments
confronting the group.
“The group still has 320 hec-
tares of undeveloped land in
Harare South and is pursuing
disposal of this land in order
to capacitate the various
Group operations that are
in need of capital,” said Mrs
Muradzikwa.●
8 news
CFI still in the red for H1
10. HARARE-The Zimbabwe Power
Company (ZPC) on Thursday
said it surpassed its power
generation target in the first
quarter of 2016 by 2,35 per-
cent, mainly due to increased
generation at Kariba Power
Station.
ZPC runs the Hwange Ther-
mal Power Station, the Kariba
Hydro-electric Power Station
and three small thermal power
stations, Munyati in Kwekwe,
Harare and Bulawayo. The
country has experienced severe
power outages over the years,
but these have been reduced in
recent months due to improved
generation capacity and
increased imports from regional
power utilities.
“In the first quarter of 2016,
ZPC sent out a total of 1 751.18
Gigawatt Hours (GWh) of energy
against a target of 1 711.04
GWh,” ZPC managing director
Noah Gwariro said in an update.
A Gigawatt (GW) equals 1 000
megawatts of electricity and
this unit is often used for large
power plants or power grids.
“The production target for the
period was surpassed by 2,35
percent due to production at
Kariba Power Station which
was fairly smooth during the
quarter and was maintained at
an average above the allocated
285MW to compensate for the
general system power shortages
that were experienced during
the quarter.”
Going forward, Gwariro said ZPC
would focus on improving oper-
ational and process efficien-
cies, mitigating against water
shortages at Kariba. Meanwhile,
Gwariro said expansion projects
being undertaken by ZPC were
taking shape, with construction
works at Kariba South Exten-
sion, for example, now at 45
percent towards completion.
“The site works for Geotechnical
and Topographical Surveys at
the Hwange expansion site and
along the transmission route
were completed in January
2016. ZPC and Sino-Hydro are
working closely to reach finan-
cial closure for this project by
end of October 2016,” he said.
“India Exim Bank has advertised
on their website for an Expres-
sion of Interest (EOI) from pro-
spective EPC Contractors for the
Bulawayo re-powering project
being funded by the $87 million
line of credit from India Exim
Bank.”- New Ziana●
10 news
Q1 power generation target exceeded: ZPC
02 03
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11. HARARE -Yesterday’s
rebound proved to be short-
lived as the equities market
fell into negative trading
with the mainstream indus-
trial index retreating 0.44 to
settle at 104.30.
Beverages giant Delta was
complicit in pushing down
the index as it was the only
loser with a $0, 0100 dip to
close at $0, 7000.
ART Corporation, Econet,
Hippo and Simbisa were
unchanged at $0, 0140, $0,
2300, $0, 2000 and $0, 1400
in that order.
On the upside, giant insurer
Old Mutual added $0, 0128
to trade at $2, 2250.
The mining index kept steady
at 25.54 as Bindura, Falgold,
Hwange and RioZim main-
tained previous price levels
at $0, 0120, $0, 0050, $0,
0300 and $0, 1610 respec-
tively
. BH24 Reporter ●
Equities back in the red
11 zse
13. 13 DIARY OF EVENTS
The black arrow indicate level of load shedding across the country.
POWER GENERATION STATS
Gen Station
02 June 2016
Energy
(Megawatts)
Hwange 302 MW
Kariba 285 MW
Harare 0 MW
Munyati 30 MW
Bulawayo 23 MW
Imports 0 - 400 MW
Total 1205 MW
9 JUNE -- First Mutual Holdings Annual General Meeting; Place: Royal Harare Golf Club, Harare; Time: 14:30hrs
15 JUNE 2016 -- Rainbow Tourism Group 7th Annual General Meeting; Time: Jacaranda Rooms 2 and 3 at the Rainbow Tour-
ism Hotel and Conference Centre, 1 Pennefather Avenue, Samora Machel Avenue West, Harare; Time: 1200 hours...
16 JUNE 2016 -- RioZim 60th Annual General Meeting; Place: No. 1 Kenilworth Road, Highlands, Harare; Time: 10.30 hours...
22 JUNE 2016 -- Zimre Holdings Limited 18th Annual General Meeting; Place: NICOZDIAMOND Auditorium, 7th Floor Insur-
ance Centre, 30 Samora Machel Avenue, Harare; Time: 1430 hours...
22 JUNE 2016 -- GB Holdings Limited Annual General Meeting; Place: Cernol Chemicals Boardroom, 111 Dagenham Road, Wil-
lowvale, Harare; Time: 11.30 hours...
23 JUNE 2016 -- Zimpapers 89th Annual General Meeting; Place: Zimpapers Ltd Boardroom, Sixth Floor Herald House, Cnr. G.
Silundika/Sam Nujoma Street, Harare; Time: 1200hrs…
THE BH24 DIARY
14. JOHANNESBURG - South
Africa's rand firmed for
a third consecutive ses-
sion against the dollar on
Thursday as global inves-
tors became less adverse
to risk after US data cooled
expectations of an interest
rate hike by the Federal
Reserve.
By 0650 GMT that rand
had gained 0,29 percent to
15,5585 per dollar, pushing
past technical resistance
around 15,6500 and open-
ing the door for further
gains before Friday's rat-
ings decision by Standard &
Poor's.
Data on Wednesday
showed that US factories
appeared to be taking in
fewer deliveries from their
suppliers, which could
hamper production in the
months ahead and dampen
the Fed's appetite for rate
hikes in June and July.
"Yesterday's session has
neither confirmed nor
denied the seemingly
bullish sentiment in the
market. Today's close will
be used as a gauge going
forward," said analysts at
research firm 4Cast in a
note.
The next technical mile-
stone for the rand was
around 15,4850, the ana-
lysts said. Traders in South
Africa said events abroad
would remain in focus
with the European Central
Bank's policy meeting later
in the session.
The rand reached an over-
night high of 15,5420,
shrugging off more signs
that the South African
economy was faltering after
new vehicles sales in May
plunged for the sixth month
in a row. Bonds tracked
the currency firmer, with
the benchmark issue due in
2026 cutting 1 basis point
to 9,33 percent.
Stocks were set to open
flat, with the JSE securities
exchange's Top-40 futures
index up only 0,06 percent
from Wednesday's close -
Reuters●
14
IMF team in
Angola for loan
talks
Rand firms as US data soothes risk aversion
regioNAL News
LUANDA - A team from
the International Monetary
Fund is visiting Angola to
negotiate a loan facil-
ity after lower oil prices
hammered the finances
of Africa's second larg-
est crude exporter, the
Ministry of Finance said on
Wednesday.
The ministry said the IMF
team will be in Angola
from June 1 to June 14
and would discuss options
on how to diversify the
economy and reduce the
dependence on the oil
sector.
"The initial negotiations
focused on recent eco-
nomic developments,
fiscal, monetary and
exchange rate policy in
the country, as well as the
evaluation of the reforms
that the government has
been implementing," the
ministry said in a state-
ment.
- Reuters●
15. Oil held near $49 a barrel
as OPEC ministers prepare
to convene in Vienna amid
speculation Saudi Arabia is
considering a deal to mend
divisions within the group.
Futures were little changed
in New York after falling
1,1 percent the previous
four sessions. Saudi Arabia
is discussing ideas includ-
ing restoring a production
target scrapped in December,
though no formal proposal
has been made, according to
delegates familiar with the
situation. US stockpiles rose
by 2,35 million barrels last
week, the American Petro-
leum Institute was said to
report. Government data due
Thursday is forecast to show
a decline.
Oil has surged about 85
percent from a 12-year low
it touched earlier this year
amid signs output from the
US to China declined under
pressure from OPEC’s strat-
egy of sustaining production
amid a global glut. Any new
agreement by the Organi-
sation of Petroleum Export-
ing Countries will depend
on Iran, which has so far
rejected any cap on its sup-
plies.
“There is a general expec-
tation that there will be no
change to the strategy,’’ Ric
Spooner, a chief analyst at
CMC Markets in Sydney, said
by phone. “There seems to
be no logical reason for the
main players, such as Saudi,
to change the course of
action, particularly now that
their strategy seems to be
working.”
West Texas Intermediate for
July delivery was at $48.97
a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, down 4
cents, at 7:58 a.m. London
time after falling as much as
0,6 percent earlier. The con-
tract slid 9 cents to close at
$49,01 on Wednesday. Total
volume traded was about 58
percent below the 100-day
average.
Output Freeze
Brent for August settle-
ment was at $49,74 a barrel
on the London-based ICE
Futures Europe exchange, up
2 cents. The global bench-
mark crude traded at a
31-cent premium to WTI for
August.
While OPEC regularly ignores
its own output targets and
there was no suggestion
anyone would cut produc-
tion, even token gestures
could show a renewed unity
and lift prices. United Arab
Emirates Oil Minister Suhail
Mohammed Al Mazrouei said
OPEC and producers outside
the group would have to
agree to any supply freeze,
while Iran Oil Minister Bijan
Namdar Zanganeh said an
output ceiling has “no bene-
fit” for the Persian Gulf state
. – Bloomberg●
15
Oil holds near $49 before OPEC meeting as Saudis consider deal
internatioNAL News
16. *A series of bad polls have
pro-Europeans panicked.
Are they right?
Is this what Brexit looks
like? A batch of polls all
show significant movement
towards a Leave vote. ORB, a
phone pollster, has Leave up
four points to 46 per cent,
with Remain’s leave cut to
four points. ICM’s online poll
has Leave up three points,
putting Brexit ahead of
Remain by 52 per cent to 48
per cent once don’t-knows
are excluded. ICM’s phone
poll shows Leave up six
points, a Brexit lead of three
points.
That two phone polls are
showing advances for Leave
are particularly significant,
as telephone polling has
tended to show lower figures
for Brexit. There is a lively
debate over which method,
phone or online, is likely to
be more effective at predict-
ing the referendum, although
no-one knows for certain at
the present time.
In any case, whether on the
telephone or the Internet,
the latest polls have pro-Eu-
ropeans worried, and Brex-
iteers jubilant. Who’s right?
There are reasons to start
trusting the polls, at least
as far as voter ID is con-
cerned
So far, the performances of
the political parties in local
elections and by-elections
has been about par with what
we’d expect from the polls.
So the chances are good that
the measures taken post-
2015 election are working.
Bank holidays are always
difficult
I would be deeply cautious of
reading too much into three
polls, all of which have been
conducted over the bank hol-
iday weekend, a time when
people go out, play with their
kids, get wasted or go away
for a long weekend.
The last set of bank holi-
day polls gave Ed Miliband’s
Labour party large leads,
well outside the average,
which tended to show the
two parties neck-and-neck.
16 analysis16 analysis
Is Britain about to leave the European Union?
17. 17 analysis17 analysis
Although this time they
might be more revealing
than we expect
One reason why the polls
got it wrong in 2015 is they
talked to the wrong type of
people. The demographic
samples were right but they
were not properly repre-
sentative. (Look at it like
this – if my poll includes 18
actors who are now earning
millions in cinema, I may
have a representative figure
in terms of the total number
of Britain’s millionaires – but
their politics are likely to be
far to the left of the average
British one percenter, unless
the actor in question is Tom
Conti.)
Across telephone and online,
the pollsters talked to people
who were too politically-mo-
tivated, skewing the result:
Ed Miliband’s Labour party
did very well among young
people for whom Thursday
night was a time to watch
Question Time and This
Week, but less well among
young people for whom
Thursday is the new Friday.
The polls had too many party
members and not enough
party animals. But the ques-
tion no-one can answer is
this: it may be that differen-
tial turnout in the European
referendum means that a
sample of hyper-politicos is
actually a better sample than
an ordinary poll. Just as the
polls erred in 2015 by sam-
pling too many political peo-
ple, they may be calling the
referendum wrong in having
too many apolitical people.
These three polls aren’t
the scariest for Remain
released today
IpsosMori released a poll
today, taken 15 days ago
and so free from any bank
holiday effect, without a
referendum voting intention
question, but one taking the
temperature on which issues
the British public believe are
the most important of the
day.
Far from growing more
invested in the question of
Britain’s European Union
membership as the campaign
enters its terminal phase,
concern about the European
Union has flatlined at 28
per cent – within the mar-
gin of error of last month’s
IpsosMori survey, which
put Britain at 30 per cent.
The proportion who believe
that it is the biggest single
issue facing Britain today
also remains static at 16 per
cent. Evidence of the high
turnout necessary to avert
Brexit seems thin on the
ground.
Pro-Europeans should be fur-
ther worried by the identity
of the groups that are con-
cerned about the European
Union. Conservative voters,
the over-65s and people from
social grades A (higher man-
agerial, administrative and
professional workers) and B
(intermediate managerial,
administrative and profes-
sional workers), are more
concerned about the Euro-
pean Union than the national
average. The only one of
those three groups that is
more likely to favour Remain
over Leave are ABers, while
Conservative voters and the
over-65s are likely to vote
for Brexit over the status
quo.
Among the demographics
who are least concerned
about the European Union,
the only pro-Brexit group
that is significantly less con-
cerned about EU membership
than the national average are
people from social grades D
(semi-skilled and unskilled
manual workers) to E (state
pensioners, casual workers
and jobseekers). The other
groups that are least con-
cerned with the European
Union are people who live in
urban areas and people aged
from 18 to 24, the two most
pro-European demographics.
The prospects of a Brexit
vote are rather better than
the betting odds would sug-
gest. - NewStatesman●