Climate Change & Crop Threats - Bill Clark (Brooms Barn Research)
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This presentation formed part of the Farming Futures workshop for Lincolnshire Cereals and Oilseed Growers (22 October 2008)
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Climate Change & Crop Threats - Bill Clark (Brooms Barn Research)
- 1. Climate change and crop threats Bill Clark Director Broom’s Barn Research Centre
- 2. Current cropped areas Broom’s Barn Research
- 3. Future Cropping Areas Cropping restricted by temperature, light and water availability Broom’s Barn Research
- 5. Wetter winters Drier summers Hotter summers Broom’s Barn Research
- 6. Black stem rust Broom’s Barn Research
- 7. Colorado Beetle Current 2050 Broom’s Barn Research
- 8. Worse Better • Gout fly • Wheat bulb fly • Wheat stem sawfly • BYDV • Aphids • Pea moth • Cereal leaf beetle • Carrot fly • Wireworm • Slugs • Colorado beetle • Root Knot nematodes • PCN • Diamond back moth • Cutworm Broom’s Barn Research
- 9. Blackgrass Current 2050 Dry summers Broom’s Barn Research
- 10. Cropping changes significant • Wider range for some crops – maize. • Existing crops will change growth rate and timings of treatment • Wheat - flowering up to 14 days earlier by 2050 Broom’s Barn Research
- 11. Future fungicide strategies Mild winters, warm summers: T3 Septoria, Brown rust / Yellow rust T2 T1 T0 GS32 GS33/37 GS39 GS59/65 GS65 Broom’s Barn Research
- 12. Future fungicide strategies Mild winters, warm summers: T2 Advanced growth stages, Drought Early ripening, Shorter grain filling T1 T0 Very short GS32 GS39 GS39 GS59 GS65 Broom’s Barn Research
- 13. Yield t/ha 0 2 4 6 8 10 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Broom’s Barn Research 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 UK Crop yields 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 UK Yields 1976-2006 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Wheat Oilseed rape
- 14. Cropping changes • More maize in rotation? • Maize also susceptible to, and a host of Fusarium graminearum. • Expect more ear blight in wheat. • Warmer summers means risk will be higher in the north and Scotland. • More erratic weather patterns. • Higher levels of mycotoxins. Broom’s Barn Research
- 15. Threats to production Black Stem Rust • Favoured by: Hot days (25-30ºC), Mild nights (15-20ºC), Wet leaves Broom’s Barn Research
- 16. Threats to production • High temperature strains. • New isolates have shorter latent periods and greater spore germination at 18ºC than at 12ºC. • Isolates sporulate 2 days sooner and have double the germination percentage of old isolates at 18ºC. Broom’s Barn Research
- 17. Threats to production • Very short latent period. • Little eradicant activity of fungicides. • Needs new spray timing strategies. Broom’s Barn Research
- 18. S. tritici v Tan Spot Epoxiconazole Metconazole Fluquinconazole Cyproconazole Chlorothalonil Tebuconazole Prochloraz Epoxiconazole Metconazole Fluquinconazole Cyproconazole Chlorothalonil Tebuconazole Prochloraz Broom’s Barn Research
- 19. Climate change and disease • ‘New’ diseases will appear Tan spot / Black stem rust • Existing diseases will adapt Yellow rust • Existing diseases will thrive Brown rust Broom’s Barn Research
- 20. Current Fungicide strategy T3 T2 T1 T0 GS32 GS39 GS65 Broom’s Barn Research
- 21. Fungicide strategy Leaf and Ear disease Rusts/ Septoria Rusts / Septoria Eyespot Rust/Septoria Rusts GS32 GS39 GS65 Broom’s Barn Research
- 22. Will current fungicide strategies cope? T3 T2 T1 T0 GS32 GS39 GS65 Earlier Broom’s Barn Research
- 23. Future fungicide strategy T3 T2 T1 T0 GS32 GS33/37 GS39 GS59/65 GS65 Earlier Broom’s Barn Research
- 24. Future strategies Broom’s Barn Research
- 25. SUMMARY • We will face new threats. • Many because of cropping changes • More fungicide inputs. • More costly programmes. • Adapt current timings. • Continuing reliance on triazoles. • Anti-resistance strategies. • New products will have limited impact. Broom’s Barn Research
- 26. Climate change research Bill Clark Director Broom’s Barn Research Centre
- 28. 40 days 20 days? Broom’s Barn Research
- 29. Fungicide strategy Caramba/ Comet Opus/Bravo Comet Tracker/ Bravo Cypro+Bravo Epona/Baytan GS32 GS39 GS65 Broom’s Barn Research
- 30. Progress slowing World Grain Yields 3.5 Yield t/ha 3 Annual % 2.5 increase 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Broom’s Barn Research
- 31. Oilseed rape TuYV Broom’s Barn Research
- 32. OSR and TuYV • The main virus vector is the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae. • Milder autumns mean more survival of the aphids and more spread of the virus overwinter. • Sampling of M. persicae populations in the UK have shown that up to 72% of winged M. persicae carry TuYV. • Broom’s Barn Research shown that TuYV can decrease yields by up to 26%. • Recent work in Australia has shown yield losses up to 46%. Current work on seed treatments, spray timing, aphid monitoring, varietal resistance. Broom’s Barn Research