En aquesta Friday analitzarem el cas de la sortida a borsa de Facebook i la compararem amb altres empreses tecnològiques que cotitzen a borsa. Des de llavors, les accions han caigut més d'un 50% i el co-fundador i CEO de Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, s'ha vist obligat a anunciar que no vendrà cap de les seves accions al menys fins el 2014. Per la gent no familiaritzada amb la borsa explicarem els conceptes bàsics per tal d'entendre-la, i analitzarem un fenòmen típic de les empreses que comercialitzen amb la informació: l'Information Gap Value. Era previsible tot això? Es tracta d'una bombolla? Encara han de baixar molt més les accions? No existeixen respostes per totes aquestes qüestions, només es pot analitzar les dades disponibles i discutir-les entre tots per tal de que cadascú es configuri el seu propi criteri.

1. Facebook IPO
@francescgo
#Ftraining
07/09/2012

2. First of all
“
Capitalism is the astounding belief
that the most wickedest of men
will do the most wickedest of things
for the greatest good of everyone.
John Maynard Keynes
”

3. Basics
Stock (Capital Social)
original capital paid into or invested in the
business by its founders.

4. Basics
Shares of Stock (Acciones)
The stock of a business is divided into multiple
shares.
Shares represent a fraction of ownership in a
business.

5. Basics
Stock exchange (Bolsa de Valores)
A place where shares of stock
(and other securities)
are traded

6. Basics
IPO - Initial Public Offering
(OPV – Oferta Pública de Venta)
Shares of stock in a company are sold to the
general public, for the first time.

7. Why an IPO?
1.
to raise expansion capital
In an IPO, the money paid by the investing
public for the newly issued shares goes directly
to the company (primary offering)

8. Why an IPO?
2.
to possibly monetize the investments of early
private investors
In an IPO, the money paid can also go to any
early private investors who opt to sell all or a
portion of their holdings (secondary offering)

9. Why an IPO?
3.
to become publicly traded enterprises
Enlarging and diversifying equity base
Enabling cheaper access to capital
Increasing public image
Facilitating Acquisitions
Attracting and Retaining talent through liquid
equity participation

10. Largest IPOs
$22,10 b Agricultural Bank of China (2010)
$21,90 b Industrial and Commercial Bank of
China (2006)
$20,50 b American International Assurance(2010)
$19,70 b Visa Inc. (2008)
$18,15 b General Motors (2010)
$16,00 b Facebook, Inc. (2012)

11. Largest Internet IPOs

12. Pricing of IPO
Underwriters set the pricing of IPOs, and many
factors are taken into consideration
Offering price must be
low enough to stimulate interest in the stock,
but high enough to raise an adequate amount
of capital for the company.

13. Why Facebook IPO?
When the number of Facebook shareholders
crossed the 500 threshold,
it had to take the company public

14. Facebook IPO pricing
Facebook went public on May 18, 2012
Underwriters settled on a price of $38 per share
Facebook debuted with 421 million shares
$38 x 421m = $16 b raised

15. Facebook IPO
Company
180 million shares
Investors
241 million shares $6,84 b
$9,16 b
Primary Offering Secundary Offering

16. Distributors of the cake

17. Facebook IPO Market Capitalization
May 18, 2012 $38 per share
Facebook Share count: 2,7 billion
Market Capitalization: $102,60 b

18. Facebook Value
Market Capitalization Vs Facebook “Real” Value
Market Capitalization Assets ¿¿??
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
Millions of US $
50000 83800
90400
40000
30000
20000
10000
6600
0
Market Capitalization Real Value

19. Information Value Gap
Market Capitalization Vs Information Value Gap =
Facebook “Real” Value Financial Value of Facebook Information
Market Capitalization Assets ¿¿?? Assets = $83,80 b
100000
90000
Facebook monetizable pieces of
80000
information for the last 3 years = 2,11 ·
1012 (likes, comments…)*
70000
Millions of US $
60000
“like” value =
50000
90400
83800 $83,80 b / 2,11 t =
40000 $0,04
30000
20000
10000
6600
0
Market Capitalization Real Value
*http://www.brucemacvarish.com/2012/05/creating-value-from-information-assets.html

20. User Value
2,11 Trillions 845 Millions 2500
Pieces of
Monthly Active Pieces of
information for
Users (MAUs) information for
the last three
December 2011 each active user
years
User Value =
$83.800M / 845M =
$99

21. There was bubble?
Market Value
600
500
400
$ billions
300
523,71
200
245,14
100 193,46
170,08
87,74 67,37
15,33
0
25/05/2012
FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)

22. PER
PER (Price to Earnings Ratio)
That can be read
How many years receiving dividends do I need to
make the price of the share

23. There was Bubble?
PER ratio
80
70
60
Price-to-Earnings Ratio
50
40
74,04
30
20
10 17,98 20,03
13,65
10,69
6,92 6,33
0
25/05/2012
FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)

24. There was Bubble?
Source: Wikipedia

25. Facebook After IPO

26. Facebook after IPO
Facebook Value
Market Capitalization Assets Information Value Gap
4,50E+10
4,00E+10
3,50E+10
3,00E+10
2,57E+10
2,50E+10
US $
2,00E+10 4,07E+10
1,50E+10
1,00E+10
1,49E+10
5,00E+09
0,00E+00
Market Capitalization Real Value

27. Information Value Gap Evolution
1E+11
8,38E+10
7,5E+10
US $
5E+10
2,5E+10 2,57E+10
0
25/05/2012 06/09/2012

28. Like value evolution
$0,05
$0,04 $0,04
$0,03
US $
$0,02
$0,01
$0,01
$-
25/05/2012 06/09/2012

29. User Value Evolution
$100,00 $99,17
$75,00
US $
$50,00
$26,96
$25,00
$-
25/05/2012 06/09/2012

30. Market Value Evolution
Market Value
700
600
500
$ billions
400
633,94
300
523,71
200
245,14 262,78
228,73
100 193,46 170,08 171,75
87,74 67,37 15,33 74,64 13,43
40,62
0
25/05/2012 06/09/2012
FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)

31. PER Evolution
PER Evolution
80
70
60
Price-to-Earnings Ratio
50
40
74,04
30
43,79
20
10 17,98 20,03 20,73 20,2
13,65 15,89 15,67 15,2
10,69
6,92 6,33 7,49
0
25/05/2012 06/09/2012
FB APPL GOOG KO (Coca-Cola) MSFT SAN.MC (Banco Santander) GAS.MC (Gas Natural)

32. Consequences
• CEO Mark Zuckerberg will not sell any more stock for at
least a year (he sold $1.1 billion at $38 on the IPO)
• On October 29, 234 million employee-owned shares
will become available for sale
• The company will withhold 101 million shares of stock
out of a total of 234 million shares that are owed to
employees on October 25. (That means: Facebook buys
101 million shares at $19)
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-share-buyback-2012-9

33. In plain English
• Facebook is going to retire the stock it
withholds from employees and then give the
cash value of these shares to the government
(tax payment)
101 million shares x $19 = $1,92 b

34. But remember…
• Only a few days before its IPO, underwriters
raised the expected price of the shares $10.
The Company sold 180 million shares
$10 x 180 m shares = $1,7 b

35. Ponzi Scheme
Fraudulent investment operation
that pays returns to its investors
from their own money
or the money paid by subsequent
investors,
rather than from profit earned by
the individual or organization
running the operation

36. Is Facebook a legal Ponzi Scheme?
So far Facebook is a Ponzi Scheme… at least until the first dividend is provided

37. “Facebook IPO”
by Francesc Gomez-Morales
is licensed under a
Creative Commons Reconocimiento-No
comercial-Compartir bajo la misma licencia
3.0 España License.