Saudi: 27m population is c25% expatriate. Crackdown on illegal expats is indicative of long-term priority of job creation for citizens. Negative long-term implications for a number of Frontier country recipients of remittances: Egypt, Pakistan, Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Jordan stand out as potentially most exposed long-term. See Frontier Alpha graphic.

1. Saudi – Remittances & Illegal Expat Crackdown
Saudi a Major Remitter
Expats 20 to 30% of Population
Several Frontiers Exposed
GCC vs Rest of World
27m Split according to CIA
Top Recipient Countries from Saudi
Other
15%
GCC, 13%
India
30%
Jordan
3%
Sri Lanka
5%
Expatriates, 21%
Bangladesh
6%
Rest of World, 87%
Philippines
10%
Citizens, 79%
Egypt
20%
Pakistan
11%
Source: World Bank 2012 Estimates
Source: CIA Factbook August 2013
Source: World Bank 2012 Estimates
Saudi vs Rest of GCC
27m Split According to Saudi Census 2011
Global Remittances as % of GDP
India
3%
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia, 40%
Expatriates, 31%
Egypt
Sri Lanka
Rest of GCC, 60%
Citizens, 69%
Philippines
Bangladesh
Jordan
Source: World Bank 2012 Estimates
Source: Saudi Department of Statistics & Info,
Preliminary General Census April 2011
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Source: World Bank 2011
6%
6%
9%
10%
11%
12%

2. Recent Reports
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Bangladesh
Unrest Priced In
27 October 2013
Nigeria
Political Risks Not Priced In
23 September 2013
Zimbabwe
Election to Succession
4 August 2013
Egypt
Stalemate Broken
4 July 2013
Egypt
Value in Distress
22 June 2013
Kuwait
Elections and Tribe
17 June 2013
Zimbabwe
Value Despite the Run and Risks
10 June 2013
Nigeria, Kenya
Northern Rocks
21 May 2013
Saudi
Dune
9 June 2013
Pakistan
Evolution, Not Revolution Yet
13 May 2013
Saudi
CMA, Government at Euromoney
7 May 2013
Zimbabwe
Rally Through the Risks
2 May 2013
Saudi
Margins Reveal Top Down Risk
22 April 2013
Pan-Frontier
Arab Spring: Pakistan Pointer
9 April 2013
Ethiopia
Merits More Attention
8 April 2013
Nigeria
2015 Calculus
2 April 2013
Egypt
US Disengagement
26 March 2013
Lebanon, Syria
Pessimism Put
25 March 2013
Kenya
Sensitive Moment
21 March 2013
Dubai
Different This Time Why?
13 March 2013
Qatar
LNG: Less No Risk Growth
11 March 2013
Egypt
CoupE2?
7 March 2013
MENA
Persian and Arabian Gulf
6 March 2013
Saudi
Old versus New Media
24 February 2013
Saudi
Regulator Changes
23 February 2013
Egypt
Not (Quite) Pakistan
22 February 2013
Pakistan
Balochistan Vortex
21 February 2013
Bahrain
Drain
14 February 2013
Saudi
Still a Play on Global
12 February 2013
Kuwait
Deteriorates Again
10 February 2013
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