1. Overview
Role of gas in the energy mix
Gas supply in NL: past, present and future
Import dependency in a BAU scenario
What influences the transition point?
The role of innovation
How will future developments influence the transition point?
Summary and conclusions
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
1

2. World Primary Energy Demand development
the role of gas in the energy mix is increasing
From: IEA special report on gas 2011

3. ‘World energy demand’ expectation 2035
[source IEA, 2011]
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
3
Role of natural gas increases in all scenarios

4. SER Energie akkoord:
14% renewable in 2020
16% renewable in 2023 4.5%

5. 10 januari 2011
Slide 5
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
10%

7. Change in Natural Gas Production by region
North sea region is going into decline
From: IEA special report on gas 2011
UK and NL

8. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
8
Groningen
gasveld
eerste gas: 1948
(Coevorden)
1959 : Ontdekking Groningen
(Slochteren) gasveld

9. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
9
1970

10. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
10
1980

11. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
11
1990

12. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
12
2000

13. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
13
Current status w.r.t. Natural Gas in NL
437 gasfields discovered (on- & offshore)
Of which :
• 239 in production
• 4 converted to gas storage
• 57 depleted
• 41 planned for production
• 71 “stranded fields”
N.B. infrastructure (platforms and
pipelines) are at maximum and will
decline from now on!
Huidige reserves: 1044 BCM (25 jr)
Waarvan ~800 BCM in Groningen

14. Gas Production in the Netherlands
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
14
From TNO: www.nlog.nl

15. Gas earnings in the Netherlands
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
15
From TNO: www.nlog.nl

16. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
Year
Volume(tobe)produced(bcm)
Offshore infrastructure
Simulatie voor 2008-2034
Aanname : productie uit bestaande
velden, nu niet producerende velden
en uit exploratiepotentieel
16

17. Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade
(Future) Gas production profile NL (forecast 2011)
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
17
Transition point: Export > 2023 < Import

18. Recent developments that impact the transition point
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
18
Export > > > > 2023 < Import
1. Declining demand
2. Groningen production cap
3. Innovation in small fields
4. Exploration potential

19. Expected decline in gas demand in NL
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
19
ECN estimates a reduction from 40 BCM in 2015 to 31 BCM in 2030
Households will reduce gas demand as a result of isolation, use of city
heating.
The use of gas for industry has been reduced because of the recession
and high gas prices (chemical industry, process industry)
Power generation has switched from gas to coal (cheap coal and CO2)
A lower demand will delay the transition point towards gas import
Source: ECN Nationale Energieverkenning

20. Impact of changing production profile Groningen
Groningen production
2013: ~53 BCM
2014: capped at 42.5 BCM
2015: capped at 39.4 BCM
2016: capped at 39.4 BCM
2017 and beyond to be decided
Due to production cap, future production can be kept at plateau
before natural decline will set in for a longer period
Current reserve Groningen ~800 BCM (>30 years production)
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
20

21. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
21
Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade
(Future) Gas production profile NL (forecast 2014)
Groningen field
Small fields
Gas demand in NL
Export > 2026 (+2 jr) < ImportFrom TNO: www.nlog.nl
Groningen looses its capacity as
a swing producer for NL and Europe

22. ‘Fighting the decline’
Mogelijkheden:
Verlengen van de ‘tail-end-production’
In productie brengen van ‘moeilijke velden’
‘Near field’ exploratie van hele marginale voorkomens
‘Echte’ exploratie, ev. inclusief unconventionals
(schaliegas en steenkoolgas)
Vergen alle aandacht en ondersteuning, o.a. door R&D
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
22
nieuwe technologie nodig
geologisch onderzoek
nodig & R&D

23. Typical End-of-field-life challenges
Liquid loading
Salt precipitation
Challenging / unstable operations
Maximize recovery
Extend facility life
Facility integrity & safety
Abandonment
Legal limitations (SSSV / foam offshore)
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
23
10 januari 2011

24. Application of innovation for maximising recovery
of small fields
Maximising recovery from mature fields
Foam injection to delay liquid loading
Deliquefication with gaslift, velocity strings, plunger lift
Wellhead compression
Delaying salt precipitation
Enhanced gas recovery (N2, CO2 injection)
Exploration of new fields
Conventional, shallow gas, in underexplored areas
Unconventional, tight gas, shale gas
Developing stranded fields
Remote operation
Subsea tie backs
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
24

25. Foamers for gas well deliquification
Participants
Concept
Foam will delay liquid loading of a well and extend
The field life and ultimate recovery of a gas field.
Deliverables
• Improved foamer selection method
• Scaling relations for prediction of field behavour
• First principle flow model for foams
Values of deliverables projects
• Improved foamer selection
• Improved prediction of quantitative effect of foamers
• Enabling comparison with other mitigation strategies

26. Innovation in small fields to realise 30-30 target
30/30
target
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
26
Gas demand

27. Exploratie potentieel in NL
Conventioneel gas
Onshore
Offshore
Shallow gas pockets (hazard or opportunity?)
Tight gas (nu vaak stranded fields)
Shale gas (nog zeer onzeker vanwege ontbreken exploratieboringen)
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
27

28. Analysis of prospective areas in NL

29. 10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
29
Exploratie potentieel land (cut-off 0.5 BCM)
Exploratie potentieel NL
Land 143 BCM
Offshore 126 BCM
MSV = mean success volumeSource: www.nlog.nl

30. Winning van schaliegas: Nederlandse
geologische condities
Gas houdende lagen in
Jura (Posidonia) en
Carboon (Geverik)
Huidige schattingen TRR
varieren van 50 – 500 BCM
Kraakbaarheid van het
gesteente nog grotendeels
onbekend
Exploratieboringen nodig
voor betere schattingen
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
30

31. Impact of enhanced exploration and implementation
of new technologies on small fields
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
31
Source: Focus on Dutch Gas 2014

32. Conclusions
Current gas reserves in NL are ~1000 BCM, of which 800 of Groningen
In a BAU scenario, NL will be gas import dependent in 2023
The exploration potential for conventional gas is currently 269 BCM
Unconventional sources might add 200 – 500 BCM on the long term
With current production cap on Groningen en decreasing gas demand,
the transition point will already be delayed by around 2-3 years
Innovation can extend the field life by around 10% and reduce OPEX
The transition point can be delayed by around 5 years when new
technologies are implemented on a large scale and investments remain
at a level of around 1 B€ / yr
There is a limited window of opportunity to apply end of field life
technologies in offshore fields
To delay the transition towards gas import, continued focus on
collaborative innovation and cost efficient operation is required.
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
32

33. Thank you for your time and attention
Contact details
Rene Peters
rene.peters@tno.nl
Phone +31 6 51551566
@renepeters
www.tno.nl/energy
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
33