This document discusses common issues that cause companies' growth projections to fail. It identifies five main causes of overinflated growth projections: (1) double counting of benefits across initiatives, (2) overlooking constraints like resources and IT capabilities, (3) static analyses that don't account for market changes, (4) overly optimistic forecasts due to biases, and (5) a lack of unique benefits for each initiative. The document advocates addressing these issues by ensuring growth plans are well-aligned with actions, use risk-adjusted forecasts, incorporate market dynamics, are based on realistic timelines, and have initiatives with unique benefits. This will create more realistic expectations of growth prospects and enable companies to address any gaps before experiencing an unexpected shortfall

1. THE GROWTH DRIVER
Strategies, tactics, tools and commentary about creating and sustaining profitable growth
Examining Your Company’s
Growth Expectations

2. Growth Projections Often
Fail to Hold Up Under Scrutiny
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Baseline Forecast
Growth Initiatives
Growth
Target
Based on current forecasts,
growth targets will be achieved.

3. Growth Projections Often
Fail to Hold Up Under Scrutiny
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Baseline Forecast
Growth Initiatives
Growth
Target
But these forecasts often fail to hold
up when examined more closely,
revealing shortfalls as large as 50%.

4. PlanningGaps
1
Overinflated Growth Projections
Have Five Common Causes
Growth
Target
Double
Counting
2
Unseen
Constraints
3
Static
Analyses
4
Optimistic
Forecasts
5

5. Collective Actions Fall Short of Stated Goals
Plans Without Corresponding Actions
Gaps in Planning are Caused by
Inconsistencies Between Plans and Actions
We will grow revenue 15%
in three years by:
• Doing A
• Doing B
• Doing C
Corporate Plan
Enterprise Portfolio
Program
Supports
Expected
Growth
Ini%a%ve
1
Doing
A
4%
Ini%a%ve
2
Doing
B
3%
We will grow revenue 15%
in three years by:
• Doing X
• Doing Y
• Doing Z
Corporate Plan
Enterprise Portfolio
Program
Supports
Expected
Growth
Ini%a%ve
1
Doing
X
3%
Ini%a%ve
2
Doing
Y
4%
Ini%a%ve
3
Doing
Z
2%
Although it’s part of the plan, no one is “Doing C.”!
Plans promise 15% growth, actions promise 9% growth.!

6. Double Counting Occurs When
Multiple Initiatives Claim the Same Benefits
Initiative 1
Key Outcomes
• Increase share of
customer wallet by 3%
• …
Initiative 2
Key Outcomes
• Increase share of
customer wallet by 2%
• …
Initiative 3
Key Outcomes
• Increase share of
customer wallet by 3%
• …
Multiple initiatives often claim they
will produce the same benefits, which
cannot be true. Even in the (rare) case
that the multiple initiatives target
different areas of spending within the
customers’ accounts, it can be difficult
to achieve large collective increases in
overall spending across the entire
customer base.
This problem is much more common in
large organizations comprised of multiple
business units.!

7. Resource Conflicts and IT Capacity/Timing
Issues are the Constraints Most Often Overlooked
Lack of organizational resources and IT bandwidth can delay, reduce or eliminate expected growth.!

8. Static Analyses Result When Forecasts Fail to Account
for Changes in Customer and Competitor Behavior
Incorporating
risks associated
with the
dynamics of the
market often
reduce (and may
eliminate)
expected benefits.!

9. Optimistic Forecasts Result from Natural Biases
and the Loss of Information About Uncertainty
Legend
Worst Case
Value Entered
Best Case
Key Estimates Used in Financial Model
Estimate 1
Estimate 2
Estimate 3
Estimate 4
Estimate 5
Values entered are biased toward best-case scenarios.!
!
What are the chances that everything goes as well as
can be expected? On every growth initiative?!
Single values required by spreadsheets eliminate
information about the range of possible outcomes.!

10. Addressing The Five Problems Gives You a
Realistic Chance of Achieving Your Growth Targets
Unique
Benefits
Realistic
Timelines
Dynamic
Analyses
Risk-Adjusted
Forecasts
Strategic
Alignment
Growth
Target
Ensuring that you have!
• Well-aligned plans and actions, !
• valued using risk-adjusted forecasts !
• that incorporate reasonable expectations about future market changes,!
• are based on realistic timelines that recognize organizational constraints,!
• and claim unique benefits (not shared by other initiatives)!
will create much more realistic expectations about your growth prospects, and
enable you to take action to eliminate any gaps that exist prior to experiencing
an unexpected shortfall.!

11. THE GROWTH DRIVER
www.TheGrowthDriver.com
Mark@TheGrowthDriver.com
You may use and share this work freely, as long as you adhere to the
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License