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Macroeconomic
Measurement –
The Current
Approach
Chapter 5
© Dünhaupt, Dullien, Goodwin, Harris, Nelson, Roach, Torras
Learning goals
 After today‘s lecture, you will:
– Know what Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is
– Understand the sectorial classification used to compute GDP
– Understand and apply the three different approaches of
computing GDP
– Be able to compute growth rates of GDP, nominal and real GDP
– Understand and be able to compute commonly used price
indicators and the inflation rate
Chapter 5 2
Chapter Outline
1. An Overview of National Accounting
2. Defining Gross Domestic Product
3. Measuring Gross Domestic Product
4. Growth, Price Changes and Real GDP
5. Savings, Investment and Trade
Chapter 5 3
Why should you care about Gross Domestic Product?
 GDP is the measure most often used to gauge the
performance of a country‘s economy
– Levels of GDP are used in international comparisons
– Rate of change in GDP is what we usually refer to as
„economic growth“
– Recessions are usually defined as a fall in GDP
Chapter 5 4
An Overview of National
Accounting
Historical Origins of National Accounts
 In the 19th century: First attempts to measure national income
in England and France
 By 1900, only 9 countries computed national income
 Great Depression and World War II increased interests in
national income measurement
 By 1940, 33 countries computed national income
 Today, all countries measure national income
– In the European Union, national statistical offices and the European
statistical Eurostat compile national accounts
– There are broad standards, but conventions differ between e.g. the
United States of America and EU countries
Chapter 5 6
National Accounting Sectors
 Household sector: Households and non-profit organization, including
household firms
 Non-financial corporations sector: All private and public corporate
enterprises that produce goods or provide non-financial services to
the market
 Government sector: All central, state, regional and local
governments and social security funds
 Financial corporations sector: All private and public entities
engaged in financial intermediation
 Rest of the world: All entities located outside a country’s borders
Chapter 5 7
Conventions about Capital Stocks
 Components of manufactured capital:
– Fixed assets: equipment owned by businesses and
governments (e.g. structures, dwellings, software,
intellectual property products)
– Inventories: stocks of raw materials or manufactured goods
held until they can be used or sold
– Consumer durable goods: equipment owned by households
that is used in household production of goods and services
Chapter 5 8
Table 5.1 The Estimated Size of Euro Area
Manufactured Capital Stock, 2013
Type of capital Value in trillions of euros
at the end of the year
Machinery and equipment (total economy) 4.28
Other buildings and structures (total
economy)
11.66
Cultivated assets and Intangible fixed
assets (total economy)
0.41
Dwellings (households, non-profit
institutions serving households)
14.29
Dwellings (government and corporations) 2.43
Total value of manufactured capital 33.07
Chapter 5
9
Sources: ECB, Statistical Data Warehouse. May 18, 2016, and authors’ calculations.
Conventions about Investment
 Investment:
– Addition to stocks of nonfinancial assets
 Gross investment:
– All flows into the capital stock over a period of time
 Net investment:
– Gross investment minus depreciation
 Depreciation:
– Decrease in the quantity or quality of a stock of capital
Chapter 5 10
Defining
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product
Chapter 5 12
A measure of the total market value of final goods and
services newly produced within a country‘s borders
over a period of time (usually one year)
Defining Gross Domestic Product
 Market value
– For most components of GDP, we can simply refer to the
market prices of goods and services to determine their
contribution to GDP
Chapter 5 13
Defining Gross Domestic Product
 Final goods and services
– a good that is ready for use, needing no further processing
– In contrast, an intermediate good is a good that will
undergo further processing
– Excluding intermediate goods and services avoids double
counting
Chapter 5 14
Final goods and services
Chapter 5
15
GDP = €4
€ 1
€ 2
€ 3
€ 4
wheat flour bread sandwich
 a good that is ready for use, needing no further
processing
 Excluding intermediate goods and services avoids
double counting
Defining Gross Domestic Product
 Over a period of time
– GDP measures production during a specific time period,
normally a year or a quarter of a year
 Newly produced
– Only new goods and services are counted
 Within a country‘s borders
– The goods and services are produced within the physical
borders of the country
Chapter 5 16
Measuring
Gross Domestic Product
Measuring Gross Domestic Product
 Production approach
– sums up the euro value of all final goods and services produced
in each national accounting sector
 Spending approach
– who buys the final goods and services that have been produced
 Income approach
– totals compensation received by everyone involved in
production
Chapter 5 18
Value of Production = Value of Spending = Value of Income
Chapter 5 19
Three Approaches of Measuring
Gross Domestic Product
Production
Chapter 5 19
Market value
of final
goods and
services
Consumption
Investment
Government
spending
Net exports
Labor Income
Capital Income
= =
Expenditure Income
The Product Approach
 Measures the value of all final goods and services by
their market value in respective currency
 Value-added approach: adds up all value-added
contributions at each step in the production process
 Imputations are used to estimate values of
components of GDP
Chapter 5 20
The Product Approach: Value Added
Chapter 5
21
€ 1 € 1
€ 2
€ 3
€ 1
€ 1
€ 1
wheat flour bread sandwich
GDP = €4
+
+
+
 Adds up all value-added contributions at each step in the production process
The Product Approach
Chapter 5 22
Business production
+ Households and institutions production
+ Government production
− Taxes less subsidies on products
= GDP
Convention about household production
 Counted as household production:
– Imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings
 Not counted as household production:
– Domestic and personal services produced and consumed
within the same household (e.g. cleaning, preparation of
meals or the care of sick and elderly)
– Volunteer service that do not lead to the production of
goods, e.g. care-taking or cleaning without payment
Chapter 5 23
Table 5.2 Gross Domestic Product, Euro Area,
Product Approach, 2015
Chapter 5 24
Sector and subsector Production by sector
(trillions of euros)
Households and nonprofit institutions production 0.33
Business production 7.17
Government production 1.82
Total: Gross value added 9.33
Taxes less subsidies on products 1.07
Total: Gross domestic product 10.40
Source: Eurostat, National Accounts Database. May 17, 2016
Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding.
The Spending Approach
Adds up the value of newly produced goods and services
bought by the household and institution, business, foreign,
and government sectors.
Chapter 5 25
The Spending Approach
Chapter 5 26
Personal consumption
+ Private investment
+ Government consumption
+ Government investment
+ Net exports
= GDP
The Spending Approach
Chapter 5 27
Household and institution spending
+ Business spending
+ Net foreign sector spending
+ Government spending
= GDP
Table 5.3 Gross Domestic Product, Euro Area,
Spending Approach, 2015
Chapter 5 28
Type of spending Spending by
category
(trillions of euros)
Spending by sub-
category
(trillions of euros)
Household and NPISH final consumption expenditure 5.74
Final consumption expenditure of general government 2.17
Gross capital formation 2.03
Gross fixed capital formation
Changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals
of valuables
2.05
-0.02
External balance of goods and services 0.46
Exports of goods and services 4.75
Less: Imports of goods and services 4.29
Gross domestic product 10.40
Source Eurostat, National Accounts Database. May 18, 2016.
Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding.
Box 5.2 Sex, Drugs and GDP
Chapter 6 29
In October 2014, euro area GDP increased by more than
€300 billion – overnight!
Background: Eurostat changed rules:
 Research & Development was classified as investment (counted in
GDP), not intermediate consumption (not counted in GDP)
 Illegal market activities were counted (prostitution, sale of drugs
such as cannabis, ecstasy or LSD)
 Italian GDP was revised up by 1 percent, British GDP by 0.6 percent
and Danish GDP by 0.2 percent
The Income Approach
Production related incomes (wages, rents, and profits) earned by
all people and organizations inside the euro area are summed up
in national income
– Income from foreign production received by domestic residents is
subtracted
– Income from domestic production received by foreign residents is
added
– Add depreciation
– Statistical discrepancy: results from income approach not exactly
reconciles results from product and spending approaches
Chapter 5 30
The Income Approach
Chapter 5 31
National Income
− Net income payments from the foreign sector
+ Depreciation
= GDP
Table 5.4 Gross Domestic Product, Euro Area,
Income Approach, 2015
Chapter 5 32
Types of income and adjustments Income and adjustments
(trillions of euros)
National income 8.62
Less: Net income receipts from the rest of the world 0.07
Plus: Depreciation (consumption of fixed capital) 1.84
Total: Gross domestic product 10.40
Source: Eurostat, National Accounts Database. May 18, 2016, and authors’ calculations.
Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding.
Growth, Price Changes and
Real GDP
Calculation of GDP Growth Rates
Chapter 5 34
Example: Calculate GDP Growth Rate Euro Area
Chapter 5 35
growth rate of GDP =
10.4 - 10.1
10.1
* 100 = 3.0 %
Euro Area
2014 2015
GDP € 10.1 trillion €10.4 trillion
Nominal vs. Real GDP
 Nominal (current euro) GDP: gross domestic product
expressed in terms of current prices
 Real GDP: a measure of gross domestic product that
seeks to reflect the actual value of goods and services
produced, by removing the effect of changes in prices
Chapter 5 36
Nominal vs. Real GDP
Chapter 5 37
Nominal GDP Real GDP
Total
Production
valued at
current prices
Actual value of
goods and
services
produced
Remove price
effect
Table 5.5 Calculation of Nominal GDP in an
“Apples-and-Oranges” Economy
Chapter 5 38
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Description Price per kilogram
(€)
Quantity
(kilograms)
Contribution to
nominal GDP
[(2) × (3)] (€)
Year 1
Apples €1.00 100 €100
Oranges €2.00 50 €100
€200
Year 2
Apples €1.50 100 €150
Oranges €2.00 75 €150
€300
Calculating Real GDP
 Constant-prices method (until the 1990s)
– Use prices from one particular year, the base year, to evaluate
value of production in all years
– Constant-Price Real GDP = Total production valued at base year
prices
 Chain-linked prices (since the 1990s)
– Real and nominal GDP are equal in the reference year
– Yields a unique growth rate
– Computationally complex
Chapter 5 39
Table 5.6 Calculation of Constant-Euro Real GDP
Chapter 5 40
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Description Price per kilogram
in base year (€)
Quantity (kilograms) Contribution to real
GDP [(2) × (3)] (€)
Year 1 (Base)
Apples €1.00 100 €100
Oranges €2.00 50 €100
€200
Year 2
Apples €1.00 100 €100
Oranges €2.00 75 €150
€250
*Bold type indicates base year prices
Figure 5.1 Real versus Nominal GDP,
Chained 2010 euros, 1995-2015
Chapter 5 41
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Real
and
Nominal
GDP
(trillions
of
euros)
Nominal GDP
Real GDP (chained 2010 euros)
.
Source: Eurostat
 Nominal GDP grows faster than real GDP when prices are rising
Consumer Price Index
Consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the
prices of goods and services bought by households
 calculated using a weighted average of the prices of
various goods and services it tracks
Chapter 5 42
Constant Weight Price Index =
sum of current prices weighted by base quantities
sum of base prices weighted by base quantities
* 100
Table 5.7 Calculation of a Constant-Weight Price Index
Chapter 5 43
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Description Price per kilogram
(€)
Quantity in base
year
Sum of (prices ×
base quantities)
(2) × (3)] (€)
Year 1 (Base)
Apples €1.00 100 €100
Oranges €2.00 50 €100
€200
Year 2
Apples €1.50 100 €150
Oranges €2.00 50 €100
€250
*Bold type indicates base year quantities
Table 5.7 Calculation of a Constant-Weight Price Index
Chapter 5 44
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Description Price per kilogram
(€)
Quantity in base year Sum of (prices × base
quantities) (2) × (3)] (€)
Year 1 (Base)
Apples €1.00 100 €100
Oranges €2.00 50 €100
€200
Year 2
Apples €1.50 100 €150
Oranges €2.00 50 €100
€250
*Bold type indicates base year quantities
CPI1 =
€200
€200
* 100 = 100
CPI2 =
€250
€200
* 100 = 125
Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HCPI)
Item Weights 2017
Chapter 5 45
Food and non-
alcoholic
beverages
17%
Alcoholic
beverages,
tobacco
5%
Clothing and
foodwear
7%
Housing, water,
electricity, gas
17%
Household
equipment
7%
Health
5%
Transport
5%
Communications
4%
Recreation and
culture
11%
Education
1%
Restaurants and
hotels
11%
Micellaneous
goods and
services
10%
Source: Eurostat 2017
Inflation Rate: Definition and Calculation
 Inflation is the percentage change in the Consumer
Price Index
 Our example:
Chapter 5 46
inflation rate =
CPI2 - CPI1
CPI1
* 100
inflation rate =
125 - 100
100
* 100=25 %
Savings, Investment, and
Trade
The Relationship of Savings, Investment and Trade
Spending Approach to GDP:
GDP = Personal consumption + Private investment + Net
exports + Government consumption + Government
investment
Rearranging:
GDP – Personal consumption – Government consumption =
Private investment + Government investment + Net exports
Saving = Investment + Net exports
Chapter 5 48
The Relationship of Savings, Investment and Trade
Chapter 5 49
C + X-M
GDP I GC+
= + +
GDP
− C - I +
S I + X-M
+ GI
GC GI + X-M
GDP = Personal consumption + Private investment + Government consumption +
Government investment + Net exports
GDP − Personal consumption − Government consumption = Private Investment +
Government investment + Net exports
Saving = Investment + Net exports
=
=
Net Domestic Product and Saving
Chapter 5 50
GDP
Net domestic product Depreciation
= −
 Net domestic product: national production in excess of that needed to replace
worn-out manufactured capital
 Net saving: how much is put aside for the future
(Gross) Saving
Net saving Depreciation
= −
Net Domestic Product and Saving
 Net domestic product (NDP): a measure of national
production in excess of that needed to replace worn-out
manufactured capital, by subtracting depreciation from
GDP
– Net domestic product = GDP – Depreciation
 Net saving is a better measure that gross saving of
whether we are “putting aside for the future”
– Net saving = (Gross) Saving - Depreciation
Chapter 5 51
What to take home
 GDP is the predominant measure for national income
 In European national accounting, five sectors are
distinguished
– Household sector, non-financial corporations sector,
government sector, financial corporations sector, rest of the
world
 GDP can be measured using the production, spending,
or income approach
 Inflation is the change of prices over time
 GDP can be computed in real terms (correcting for
inflation) or in nominal terms
Chapter 5 52
Chain-Linked Real GDP
Appendix
How to Calculate Chain-Linked Real GDP
1. Calculate Fisher quantity index
2. Set chain-type quantity index to 100 in reference
year
3. Multiply with Fisher index from current year
4. Multiply chain-type quantity index times level of
nominal GDP in reference year
5. Divide by 100
Chapter 5 54
Year 2 GDP in Year 1 prices
Year 1 GDP in Year 1 prices
X
Year 2 GDP in Year 2 prices
Year 1 GDP in Year 2 prices
Example: “Apples and Oranges” Economy
Plug in values from Table 5.5 and 5.6:
1. Fisher quantity index
Chapter 5 55
Table 5.8 Deriving Real GDP in Chained (Year 1) Euros
Chapter 5 56
Type of measure Year 1 Year 2
Nominal GDP €200 €300
Fisher quantity index
(current to previous year)
1.225
Chain-type quantity index 100
100 × 1.225
=122.5
Real GDP (chained Year 1
euros) = €200
(122.5 × €200)/100
= €245

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EuroMAC_Ch5.pptx

  • 1. Macroeconomic Measurement – The Current Approach Chapter 5 © Dünhaupt, Dullien, Goodwin, Harris, Nelson, Roach, Torras
  • 2. Learning goals  After today‘s lecture, you will: – Know what Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is – Understand the sectorial classification used to compute GDP – Understand and apply the three different approaches of computing GDP – Be able to compute growth rates of GDP, nominal and real GDP – Understand and be able to compute commonly used price indicators and the inflation rate Chapter 5 2
  • 3. Chapter Outline 1. An Overview of National Accounting 2. Defining Gross Domestic Product 3. Measuring Gross Domestic Product 4. Growth, Price Changes and Real GDP 5. Savings, Investment and Trade Chapter 5 3
  • 4. Why should you care about Gross Domestic Product?  GDP is the measure most often used to gauge the performance of a country‘s economy – Levels of GDP are used in international comparisons – Rate of change in GDP is what we usually refer to as „economic growth“ – Recessions are usually defined as a fall in GDP Chapter 5 4
  • 5. An Overview of National Accounting
  • 6. Historical Origins of National Accounts  In the 19th century: First attempts to measure national income in England and France  By 1900, only 9 countries computed national income  Great Depression and World War II increased interests in national income measurement  By 1940, 33 countries computed national income  Today, all countries measure national income – In the European Union, national statistical offices and the European statistical Eurostat compile national accounts – There are broad standards, but conventions differ between e.g. the United States of America and EU countries Chapter 5 6
  • 7. National Accounting Sectors  Household sector: Households and non-profit organization, including household firms  Non-financial corporations sector: All private and public corporate enterprises that produce goods or provide non-financial services to the market  Government sector: All central, state, regional and local governments and social security funds  Financial corporations sector: All private and public entities engaged in financial intermediation  Rest of the world: All entities located outside a country’s borders Chapter 5 7
  • 8. Conventions about Capital Stocks  Components of manufactured capital: – Fixed assets: equipment owned by businesses and governments (e.g. structures, dwellings, software, intellectual property products) – Inventories: stocks of raw materials or manufactured goods held until they can be used or sold – Consumer durable goods: equipment owned by households that is used in household production of goods and services Chapter 5 8
  • 9. Table 5.1 The Estimated Size of Euro Area Manufactured Capital Stock, 2013 Type of capital Value in trillions of euros at the end of the year Machinery and equipment (total economy) 4.28 Other buildings and structures (total economy) 11.66 Cultivated assets and Intangible fixed assets (total economy) 0.41 Dwellings (households, non-profit institutions serving households) 14.29 Dwellings (government and corporations) 2.43 Total value of manufactured capital 33.07 Chapter 5 9 Sources: ECB, Statistical Data Warehouse. May 18, 2016, and authors’ calculations.
  • 10. Conventions about Investment  Investment: – Addition to stocks of nonfinancial assets  Gross investment: – All flows into the capital stock over a period of time  Net investment: – Gross investment minus depreciation  Depreciation: – Decrease in the quantity or quality of a stock of capital Chapter 5 10
  • 12. Gross Domestic Product Chapter 5 12 A measure of the total market value of final goods and services newly produced within a country‘s borders over a period of time (usually one year)
  • 13. Defining Gross Domestic Product  Market value – For most components of GDP, we can simply refer to the market prices of goods and services to determine their contribution to GDP Chapter 5 13
  • 14. Defining Gross Domestic Product  Final goods and services – a good that is ready for use, needing no further processing – In contrast, an intermediate good is a good that will undergo further processing – Excluding intermediate goods and services avoids double counting Chapter 5 14
  • 15. Final goods and services Chapter 5 15 GDP = €4 € 1 € 2 € 3 € 4 wheat flour bread sandwich  a good that is ready for use, needing no further processing  Excluding intermediate goods and services avoids double counting
  • 16. Defining Gross Domestic Product  Over a period of time – GDP measures production during a specific time period, normally a year or a quarter of a year  Newly produced – Only new goods and services are counted  Within a country‘s borders – The goods and services are produced within the physical borders of the country Chapter 5 16
  • 18. Measuring Gross Domestic Product  Production approach – sums up the euro value of all final goods and services produced in each national accounting sector  Spending approach – who buys the final goods and services that have been produced  Income approach – totals compensation received by everyone involved in production Chapter 5 18 Value of Production = Value of Spending = Value of Income
  • 19. Chapter 5 19 Three Approaches of Measuring Gross Domestic Product Production Chapter 5 19 Market value of final goods and services Consumption Investment Government spending Net exports Labor Income Capital Income = = Expenditure Income
  • 20. The Product Approach  Measures the value of all final goods and services by their market value in respective currency  Value-added approach: adds up all value-added contributions at each step in the production process  Imputations are used to estimate values of components of GDP Chapter 5 20
  • 21. The Product Approach: Value Added Chapter 5 21 € 1 € 1 € 2 € 3 € 1 € 1 € 1 wheat flour bread sandwich GDP = €4 + + +  Adds up all value-added contributions at each step in the production process
  • 22. The Product Approach Chapter 5 22 Business production + Households and institutions production + Government production − Taxes less subsidies on products = GDP
  • 23. Convention about household production  Counted as household production: – Imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings  Not counted as household production: – Domestic and personal services produced and consumed within the same household (e.g. cleaning, preparation of meals or the care of sick and elderly) – Volunteer service that do not lead to the production of goods, e.g. care-taking or cleaning without payment Chapter 5 23
  • 24. Table 5.2 Gross Domestic Product, Euro Area, Product Approach, 2015 Chapter 5 24 Sector and subsector Production by sector (trillions of euros) Households and nonprofit institutions production 0.33 Business production 7.17 Government production 1.82 Total: Gross value added 9.33 Taxes less subsidies on products 1.07 Total: Gross domestic product 10.40 Source: Eurostat, National Accounts Database. May 17, 2016 Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding.
  • 25. The Spending Approach Adds up the value of newly produced goods and services bought by the household and institution, business, foreign, and government sectors. Chapter 5 25
  • 26. The Spending Approach Chapter 5 26 Personal consumption + Private investment + Government consumption + Government investment + Net exports = GDP
  • 27. The Spending Approach Chapter 5 27 Household and institution spending + Business spending + Net foreign sector spending + Government spending = GDP
  • 28. Table 5.3 Gross Domestic Product, Euro Area, Spending Approach, 2015 Chapter 5 28 Type of spending Spending by category (trillions of euros) Spending by sub- category (trillions of euros) Household and NPISH final consumption expenditure 5.74 Final consumption expenditure of general government 2.17 Gross capital formation 2.03 Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables 2.05 -0.02 External balance of goods and services 0.46 Exports of goods and services 4.75 Less: Imports of goods and services 4.29 Gross domestic product 10.40 Source Eurostat, National Accounts Database. May 18, 2016. Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding.
  • 29. Box 5.2 Sex, Drugs and GDP Chapter 6 29 In October 2014, euro area GDP increased by more than €300 billion – overnight! Background: Eurostat changed rules:  Research & Development was classified as investment (counted in GDP), not intermediate consumption (not counted in GDP)  Illegal market activities were counted (prostitution, sale of drugs such as cannabis, ecstasy or LSD)  Italian GDP was revised up by 1 percent, British GDP by 0.6 percent and Danish GDP by 0.2 percent
  • 30. The Income Approach Production related incomes (wages, rents, and profits) earned by all people and organizations inside the euro area are summed up in national income – Income from foreign production received by domestic residents is subtracted – Income from domestic production received by foreign residents is added – Add depreciation – Statistical discrepancy: results from income approach not exactly reconciles results from product and spending approaches Chapter 5 30
  • 31. The Income Approach Chapter 5 31 National Income − Net income payments from the foreign sector + Depreciation = GDP
  • 32. Table 5.4 Gross Domestic Product, Euro Area, Income Approach, 2015 Chapter 5 32 Types of income and adjustments Income and adjustments (trillions of euros) National income 8.62 Less: Net income receipts from the rest of the world 0.07 Plus: Depreciation (consumption of fixed capital) 1.84 Total: Gross domestic product 10.40 Source: Eurostat, National Accounts Database. May 18, 2016, and authors’ calculations. Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding.
  • 33. Growth, Price Changes and Real GDP
  • 34. Calculation of GDP Growth Rates Chapter 5 34
  • 35. Example: Calculate GDP Growth Rate Euro Area Chapter 5 35 growth rate of GDP = 10.4 - 10.1 10.1 * 100 = 3.0 % Euro Area 2014 2015 GDP € 10.1 trillion €10.4 trillion
  • 36. Nominal vs. Real GDP  Nominal (current euro) GDP: gross domestic product expressed in terms of current prices  Real GDP: a measure of gross domestic product that seeks to reflect the actual value of goods and services produced, by removing the effect of changes in prices Chapter 5 36
  • 37. Nominal vs. Real GDP Chapter 5 37 Nominal GDP Real GDP Total Production valued at current prices Actual value of goods and services produced Remove price effect
  • 38. Table 5.5 Calculation of Nominal GDP in an “Apples-and-Oranges” Economy Chapter 5 38 (1) (2) (3) (4) Description Price per kilogram (€) Quantity (kilograms) Contribution to nominal GDP [(2) × (3)] (€) Year 1 Apples €1.00 100 €100 Oranges €2.00 50 €100 €200 Year 2 Apples €1.50 100 €150 Oranges €2.00 75 €150 €300
  • 39. Calculating Real GDP  Constant-prices method (until the 1990s) – Use prices from one particular year, the base year, to evaluate value of production in all years – Constant-Price Real GDP = Total production valued at base year prices  Chain-linked prices (since the 1990s) – Real and nominal GDP are equal in the reference year – Yields a unique growth rate – Computationally complex Chapter 5 39
  • 40. Table 5.6 Calculation of Constant-Euro Real GDP Chapter 5 40 (1) (2) (3) (4) Description Price per kilogram in base year (€) Quantity (kilograms) Contribution to real GDP [(2) × (3)] (€) Year 1 (Base) Apples €1.00 100 €100 Oranges €2.00 50 €100 €200 Year 2 Apples €1.00 100 €100 Oranges €2.00 75 €150 €250 *Bold type indicates base year prices
  • 41. Figure 5.1 Real versus Nominal GDP, Chained 2010 euros, 1995-2015 Chapter 5 41 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Real and Nominal GDP (trillions of euros) Nominal GDP Real GDP (chained 2010 euros) . Source: Eurostat  Nominal GDP grows faster than real GDP when prices are rising
  • 42. Consumer Price Index Consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services bought by households  calculated using a weighted average of the prices of various goods and services it tracks Chapter 5 42 Constant Weight Price Index = sum of current prices weighted by base quantities sum of base prices weighted by base quantities * 100
  • 43. Table 5.7 Calculation of a Constant-Weight Price Index Chapter 5 43 (1) (2) (3) (4) Description Price per kilogram (€) Quantity in base year Sum of (prices × base quantities) (2) × (3)] (€) Year 1 (Base) Apples €1.00 100 €100 Oranges €2.00 50 €100 €200 Year 2 Apples €1.50 100 €150 Oranges €2.00 50 €100 €250 *Bold type indicates base year quantities
  • 44. Table 5.7 Calculation of a Constant-Weight Price Index Chapter 5 44 (1) (2) (3) (4) Description Price per kilogram (€) Quantity in base year Sum of (prices × base quantities) (2) × (3)] (€) Year 1 (Base) Apples €1.00 100 €100 Oranges €2.00 50 €100 €200 Year 2 Apples €1.50 100 €150 Oranges €2.00 50 €100 €250 *Bold type indicates base year quantities CPI1 = €200 €200 * 100 = 100 CPI2 = €250 €200 * 100 = 125
  • 45. Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HCPI) Item Weights 2017 Chapter 5 45 Food and non- alcoholic beverages 17% Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 5% Clothing and foodwear 7% Housing, water, electricity, gas 17% Household equipment 7% Health 5% Transport 5% Communications 4% Recreation and culture 11% Education 1% Restaurants and hotels 11% Micellaneous goods and services 10% Source: Eurostat 2017
  • 46. Inflation Rate: Definition and Calculation  Inflation is the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index  Our example: Chapter 5 46 inflation rate = CPI2 - CPI1 CPI1 * 100 inflation rate = 125 - 100 100 * 100=25 %
  • 48. The Relationship of Savings, Investment and Trade Spending Approach to GDP: GDP = Personal consumption + Private investment + Net exports + Government consumption + Government investment Rearranging: GDP – Personal consumption – Government consumption = Private investment + Government investment + Net exports Saving = Investment + Net exports Chapter 5 48
  • 49. The Relationship of Savings, Investment and Trade Chapter 5 49 C + X-M GDP I GC+ = + + GDP − C - I + S I + X-M + GI GC GI + X-M GDP = Personal consumption + Private investment + Government consumption + Government investment + Net exports GDP − Personal consumption − Government consumption = Private Investment + Government investment + Net exports Saving = Investment + Net exports = =
  • 50. Net Domestic Product and Saving Chapter 5 50 GDP Net domestic product Depreciation = −  Net domestic product: national production in excess of that needed to replace worn-out manufactured capital  Net saving: how much is put aside for the future (Gross) Saving Net saving Depreciation = −
  • 51. Net Domestic Product and Saving  Net domestic product (NDP): a measure of national production in excess of that needed to replace worn-out manufactured capital, by subtracting depreciation from GDP – Net domestic product = GDP – Depreciation  Net saving is a better measure that gross saving of whether we are “putting aside for the future” – Net saving = (Gross) Saving - Depreciation Chapter 5 51
  • 52. What to take home  GDP is the predominant measure for national income  In European national accounting, five sectors are distinguished – Household sector, non-financial corporations sector, government sector, financial corporations sector, rest of the world  GDP can be measured using the production, spending, or income approach  Inflation is the change of prices over time  GDP can be computed in real terms (correcting for inflation) or in nominal terms Chapter 5 52
  • 54. How to Calculate Chain-Linked Real GDP 1. Calculate Fisher quantity index 2. Set chain-type quantity index to 100 in reference year 3. Multiply with Fisher index from current year 4. Multiply chain-type quantity index times level of nominal GDP in reference year 5. Divide by 100 Chapter 5 54 Year 2 GDP in Year 1 prices Year 1 GDP in Year 1 prices X Year 2 GDP in Year 2 prices Year 1 GDP in Year 2 prices
  • 55. Example: “Apples and Oranges” Economy Plug in values from Table 5.5 and 5.6: 1. Fisher quantity index Chapter 5 55
  • 56. Table 5.8 Deriving Real GDP in Chained (Year 1) Euros Chapter 5 56 Type of measure Year 1 Year 2 Nominal GDP €200 €300 Fisher quantity index (current to previous year) 1.225 Chain-type quantity index 100 100 × 1.225 =122.5 Real GDP (chained Year 1 euros) = €200 (122.5 × €200)/100 = €245