Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Ad

Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre University of Manchester July 2011 Climate Change: going beyond dangerous … brutal numbe...

… explore the void between rhetoric and reality on climate change mitigation

Before thinking of responses to climate change what ’s the question?

INTERNATIONAL ‘ To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius , and take action to meet this objecti...

‘… must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2°C ’ EU

UK “ average global temperatures must rise no more than 2°C ” Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009)

So the question is clear: how do we ensure a good chance of staying below 2 °C?

… but why 2 °C ?

2001 2°C ‘Guardrail ’ Dangerous Acceptable

2001 2009

2001 2009

Is 2°C – dangerous or extremely dangerous? Is 1°C the new 2°C?

… what mitigation is necessary to stay at or below 2 °C … how do we split the global carbon budget between Annex 1 (...

Emission-reduction targets <ul><li>UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets </li></ul><ul><li>UK ’s 80% reducti...

<ul><li>2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change (2° C) </li></ul><ul><li>cumulative emissions that...

How does this scientifically-credible approach change the challenge we face?

the latest emissions data factor in… what is the scale of the global ‘problem’ we now face?

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007 ~ 5.6% p.a. 2009-2010 Things are getting worse! Global CO 2 emission trends?

<ul><li>What does: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>this failure to reduce emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>& </li></ul></ul><ul>...

early emissions peak = lower emissions reduction/year

2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)...

50:50 chance of Dangerous Climate Change (Global) Unprecedented reductions (~ 10% pa from 2020) (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Ph...

Even then total decarbonisation by ~2035-45 necessary … and for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak) 13 of 18 scenarios ‘ i...

<ul><li>Annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only </li></ul><ul><li>“ been associated with economic recession or...

<ul><li>Growth rate to peak emissions (1-2% CCC etc, real 3, 4% or higher) </li></ul><ul><li>Peak year assumptions (2010...

If this all looks too difficult … what about a 4°C future?

For 4 °C & emissions peaking by 2020 a ~ 3.5% p.a. reduction in CO 2 from energy is necessary ... & such a reductio...

For 4 °C global mean surface temperature 5 °C - 6°C global land mean … & increase °C on the hottest days of: ...

There is a widespread view that a 4 °C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond...

A fair deal for non-OECD (non-Annex 1) … what ’s left for us (OECD/Annex 1) ?

Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Growth 3.5% p.a Peak 2025 Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!) Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transac...

Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Peak ~2010 Reduction ∞ % p.a. Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% cha...

But even this non-Annex 1 pathway is too optimistic? … focus on China (& India)

China emissions (CO2 only 2010) 7.5GtCO2 (25% global) GDP growth p.a. (ten year trend) 10.5% p.a. India emissions (CO2...

Can this continue… <ul><li>Shanghai & Beijing GDP/capita ~As OECD </li></ul><ul><li>~200M Chinese <$1.25/day </li></ul><ul...

Absolute emissions <ul><li>If China meets 12 th Five Year Plan trends & promises, then: </li></ul><ul><li>2020 emissions ...

Are these numbers reasonable? <ul><li> – polled views of Chinese Energy & Climate Change expert community </li></ul><ul>...

… add in India

India in 2020 & 2030? Maria Sharmina 13 Sept 2010, Manchester Supervisors: Alice Bows Kevin Anderson Scientific advisor: ...

Σ China & India … Maria Sharmina 13 Sept 2010, Manchester Supervisors: Alice Bows Kevin Anderson Scientific advisor: Car...

Does all this matter? Currently no (?) global modeling & scenarios take serious note of China & India (ccc analysis & UK...

2°C … a political & scientific creed ?

“ It is possible to restrict warming to 2°C or less ..with at least a 50% probability .” AVOID (2009) For ~2°C it is...

“ … it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilisation at...

How do two such fundamentally different interpretations of the challenge arise from the same science?

EU In summary <ul><li>Recent historical emissions sometimes ‘mistaken’ or ‘massaged’ </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term emissio...

Have we got the agency to achieve the unprecedented reductions rates linked to an outside chance of 2 ° C ? Before desp...

<ul><li>10% reduction in emissions year on year </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>40% reduction by 2015 </li></ul></ul></ul></...

<ul><li>AGENCY </li></ul><ul><li>Equity – a message of hope – perhaps? </li></ul><ul><li>Technology – how far, how fast ...

Little chance of changing polices aimed at 6.85 billion … but how many people need to make the necessary changes?

Pareto ’ s 80:20 rule 80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved ~50% of emissions from ~1% of population run thi...

- who ’ s in the 1%? <ul><li>Climate scientists </li></ul><ul><li>Climate journalists & pontificators </li></ul><ul><li>OE...

Are we (principally Annex 1 ) sufficiently concerned to … make or have enforced substantial personal sacrifices/chang...

Technical AGENCY – another message of hope

Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Powerstation Transmission Electricity Consumption Light 10 50 54 120 133 The Electr...

Car efficiency (without rebound) <ul><li>UK mean car emissions ~175g/km (new ~150g/km) </li></ul><ul><li>EU 2015 plan 130g...

To conclude …

<ul><li>Link between cumulative emissions & temp ’ is broadly correct </li></ul><ul><li>Non-Annex 1 nations peak emissions...

EU So where does this leave us? Manchester Mandate mitigate for 2 °C, plan for 4°C mitigate for 4 °C, plan for 2°C Bows’ ...

But “… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real ho...

… a final message of hope .. “ at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity...

1-person living in 3 bedroom houses patio heaters 10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen 2 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg ...

academics flying to climate change conferences musicians flying to climate change concerts celebrating the excesses of c...

& all with up to 9 billion people living on our planet!

Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre University of Manchester July 2011 Climate Change: going beyond dangerous … brutal numbe...

Share Slideshare

LinkedIn
Facebook
Twitter

Embed

Size (px)

Show related Slideshows at end

WordPress Shortcode

Link

Share
Email

Climate change 101 - Introduction t... by UNDP Eurasia 8211 views
Turn down the heat: Why a 4 degree ... by OK Carbon Consulting 32401 views
T2 w3 causes of climate change by Yanjie Luo 3184 views
Climate Change by Sadia Rahat 3019 views
Climate change powerpoint by pacorz 919861 views
Infrequent Flyer Slideshow Presenta... by InfrequentFlyer 1051 views

View on Slideshare

1 of 67 Ad

View on Slideshare

1 of 67 Ad