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Выборы в США
1944-2010
> 1 млн выборных должностей
голосование за кандидатов, а
не за партии
first-past-the-post
двухпартийность
70


65                                        явка: 1944-2010
60


55


50
                                                                    Turnout of voting-age
                                                                    population (percent)

45


40


35


30
    1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
240000000


                                              явка: 1944-2010
190000000




                                                                               Voting-age
140000000                                                                      population
                                                                               Voter turnout




 90000000




 40000000
              1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
            1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
2.5


 2


1.5

                                                Senate ENPs
 1                                              HoR ENPs




0.5   эффективное число партий

 0
    1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004
 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008
1

баланс между партиями:
     0.9
Сенат
    0.8

    0.7

    0.6

    0.5

    0.4

    0.3

    0.2
                                                             monovalent
    0.1                                                      two-party         2008

               predominant                                1974                1972      1970                 1952 2006
                                                                                                           2002 1950
                                                                                                                1954

               party bivalent >
                                                            1976   1944 1978          2004      1980
                                      1964
                                         1962 1958 1960
                                                   1966                   1968 1992 1990 1986 1982 1946 1994 1956 2000
                                                                                  1948 1996         2010
                                                                                                    1984
     0
          0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.4     0.5           0.6             0.7             0.8         0.9             1
1




баланс между партиями:
    0.9



Палата представителей
    0.8




    0.7




    0.6




    0.5




    0.4




    0.3




                                                             monovalent
    0.2




                                                             two-party
    0.1
                    predominant
                    party bivalent >    1988
                                        1948
                                         1986
                                         1946   1990
                                                1950       2002
                                                           1962
                                                         1994
                                                         1954     1960 1980 1956
                                                                    2004
                                                                    1964 1996
                                                                  2000
                                                                     1998
                                                                     1958          1992
                                                                                   1984
                                                                                   1952
                                                                                   1944
                                                                                    1982       2006 2008 2010
                                                                                           19781966
                                                                                                             1972
                                                                                            19761974 1968 1970
     0
          0   0.1     0.2   0.3   0.4     0.5          0.6             0.7          0.8          0.9                1
округа и gerrymandering
John Dingell, в палате           Daniel Inouye,
                                 в Сенате с 1963 года
представителей с 1955 года
Средний срок полномочий      Средний срок полномочий
конгрессмена - 10 лет        сенатора – 12.6 лет
расклад сил: 1944-2010
1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
   1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
                                                                                     0.8



930                                          D в Палате
                                             представителей
                                                                                     0.7




830
                                                                                     0.6




730
                                                                                     0.5




                                        D в Сенате
630
                                                                                     0.4




530
                                                                                     0.3




430
                               президенты-демократы                                  0.2




330                                                                                  0.1




230                                                                                  0

   1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

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elections in the United States

  • 2. > 1 млн выборных должностей голосование за кандидатов, а не за партии first-past-the-post двухпартийность
  • 3.
  • 4. 70 65 явка: 1944-2010 60 55 50 Turnout of voting-age population (percent) 45 40 35 30 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
  • 5. 240000000 явка: 1944-2010 190000000 Voting-age 140000000 population Voter turnout 90000000 40000000 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
  • 6. 2.5 2 1.5 Senate ENPs 1 HoR ENPs 0.5 эффективное число партий 0 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008
  • 7. 1 баланс между партиями: 0.9 Сенат 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 monovalent 0.1 two-party 2008 predominant 1974 1972 1970 1952 2006 2002 1950 1954 party bivalent > 1976 1944 1978 2004 1980 1964 1962 1958 1960 1966 1968 1992 1990 1986 1982 1946 1994 1956 2000 1948 1996 2010 1984 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
  • 8. 1 баланс между партиями: 0.9 Палата представителей 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 monovalent 0.2 two-party 0.1 predominant party bivalent > 1988 1948 1986 1946 1990 1950 2002 1962 1994 1954 1960 1980 1956 2004 1964 1996 2000 1998 1958 1992 1984 1952 1944 1982 2006 2008 2010 19781966 1972 19761974 1968 1970 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
  • 10. John Dingell, в палате Daniel Inouye, в Сенате с 1963 года представителей с 1955 года Средний срок полномочий Средний срок полномочий конгрессмена - 10 лет сенатора – 12.6 лет
  • 11. расклад сил: 1944-2010 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 0.8 930 D в Палате представителей 0.7 830 0.6 730 0.5 D в Сенате 630 0.4 530 0.3 430 президенты-демократы 0.2 330 0.1 230 0 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008