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Martin Pánek
Modrá, nikoli zelená planeta
 Ohroženo klima, nebo svoboda?
 Jiří Weigl, Dušan Tříska, Luboš Motl, Fred Singer
 Zdroje a ceny
 Efekt bohatství
 Diskontování a časové preference
 Cost-benefit analýza
 GO v realitě
1. Vymezení problému
 Konec socialismu
 Environmentalismus, resp. klimatický alarmismus
 Ekologie ≠ environmentalismus
 Permanentní proces změn
=> nejvýznamnější neliberální populistická ideologie
současnosti
Zdroje a ceny
 Zdroje končí?
 D.H. a D.L. Meadowsovi: The Limits to Growth (1972)
— Římský klub
 Ropa — zdroj pro faraony?
 Skončila doba kamenná nedostatkem kamenů?
 Paul Ehrlich
 Cena (cenový systém) — klíčový faktor
 Internality >> externality
Bohatství a technický pokrok
 Bohatství i technický pokrok porostou
 Jak bude vypadat svět za 100 let?
 Největší problém (1920) — bláto
 Sternův předpoklad 1,3 %
 Rozdíly předpokladů
 Čínská populace
Kuznetsovy křivky
 Původně výše a rovnost důchodu
 Enviromentální U-křivka
 Zlom: HDP 6700-8400 $ per capita
Časové preference
 Člověk = jediný hodnotitel
 Směnná hodnota <=> relevantní informace
d>0 => Rt>R0
 Za korunu dosadit ekologické téma
 Stern: společenská d → 0
t
t dRR 
 )1(0
Má dáti — dal
 Princip opatrnosti — absolutizace averze k riziku
 Náklady obětované příležitosti
 Větrníky z Temelína do Bruselu
 Trade-offs — opatrnost nejdražší
 Bez důsledné cost-benefit analýzy absurdní závěry
GO v realitě
 1. Dochází vůbec ke globálnímu oteplování
 2. Jestli ano, způsobuje ho svou aktivitou člověk?
 3. Jestli ho způsobuje člověk, dá se s tím něco dělat?
 4. Vadí mírné změny teplot?
ΣCO2 = f(Y;L;Φ)
 Y — produkt
 L — počet lidí
 Φ — technologie
=> snížení ΣCO2 <=> snížení produktu
„Oteplení“
0,74 °C
Zdroje
 Václav Klaus: Modrá, nikoli zelená planeta
 http://www.czechcoal.cz/cs/ur/zprava/2007cz/images/70_2.jpg
 http://www.terry.ubc.ca/wp-content/uploads/percapitaco2.png
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kuznets_curve.png

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Ekonomie životního prostředí Václava Klause

  • 2. Modrá, nikoli zelená planeta  Ohroženo klima, nebo svoboda?  Jiří Weigl, Dušan Tříska, Luboš Motl, Fred Singer  Zdroje a ceny  Efekt bohatství  Diskontování a časové preference  Cost-benefit analýza  GO v realitě
  • 3. 1. Vymezení problému  Konec socialismu  Environmentalismus, resp. klimatický alarmismus  Ekologie ≠ environmentalismus  Permanentní proces změn => nejvýznamnější neliberální populistická ideologie současnosti
  • 4.
  • 5. Zdroje a ceny  Zdroje končí?  D.H. a D.L. Meadowsovi: The Limits to Growth (1972) — Římský klub  Ropa — zdroj pro faraony?  Skončila doba kamenná nedostatkem kamenů?  Paul Ehrlich  Cena (cenový systém) — klíčový faktor  Internality >> externality
  • 6. Bohatství a technický pokrok  Bohatství i technický pokrok porostou  Jak bude vypadat svět za 100 let?  Největší problém (1920) — bláto  Sternův předpoklad 1,3 %  Rozdíly předpokladů  Čínská populace
  • 7.
  • 8. Kuznetsovy křivky  Původně výše a rovnost důchodu  Enviromentální U-křivka  Zlom: HDP 6700-8400 $ per capita
  • 9.
  • 10. Časové preference  Člověk = jediný hodnotitel  Směnná hodnota <=> relevantní informace d>0 => Rt>R0  Za korunu dosadit ekologické téma  Stern: společenská d → 0 t t dRR   )1(0
  • 11. Má dáti — dal  Princip opatrnosti — absolutizace averze k riziku  Náklady obětované příležitosti  Větrníky z Temelína do Bruselu  Trade-offs — opatrnost nejdražší  Bez důsledné cost-benefit analýzy absurdní závěry
  • 12. GO v realitě  1. Dochází vůbec ke globálnímu oteplování  2. Jestli ano, způsobuje ho svou aktivitou člověk?  3. Jestli ho způsobuje člověk, dá se s tím něco dělat?  4. Vadí mírné změny teplot?
  • 13. ΣCO2 = f(Y;L;Φ)  Y — produkt  L — počet lidí  Φ — technologie => snížení ΣCO2 <=> snížení produktu
  • 15. Zdroje  Václav Klaus: Modrá, nikoli zelená planeta  http://www.czechcoal.cz/cs/ur/zprava/2007cz/images/70_2.jpg  http://www.terry.ubc.ca/wp-content/uploads/percapitaco2.png  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kuznets_curve.png