1. Preparing for Seasonal Peaks and
Troughs by Flexing your Fulfilment
and Delivery Systems
Guy Meisl
Head of Distribution EMEA

3. Fact
On the 25th November, the IMRG and
Experian forecast for Black Friday
suggested £555m would be spent on line
The actual result was £810m
(46% difference)

4. Coping Mechanisms
• Forecasting
• Information
• Planning
• Communication

5. Forecasting
There are two types of forecasting:
Sales Teams motivated by targets (and bonuses)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
January February March April May June
Widgets
Sales Plan
Actuals
Forecast
Unrealistic
Generally optimistic
No particular use of actuals

6. Forecasting (Option 2)
Realistic engagement across the business based
on a combination of genuine sales plans, actuals
marketing exercises,
and experience
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
July August September October November December
Widgets
Sales Plan
Actuals
Forecast

7. Information
Who knows what within your organisation?
• Capacity
• Customer expectations
• Delivery Schedules
• Product launch
• Weather effects
• Carrier abilities
• Marketing, is there a plan

8. Do you know your capacity?

9. Information
Who knows what within your organisation?
• Capacity
• Customer expectations
• Delivery Schedules
• Product launch
• Weather effects
• Carrier abilities
• Marketing, is there a plan
Express
Delivery
99%
Discount
Free
Stuff

10. Planning
Using the previous topics: Forecast and Information
Start early
• Detailed levels for all functions
– Pick, Pack, Dispatch
– Equipment
– Consumables
– Transport
Replenishment
Returns

11. What are your carriers capable of
delivering?

12. ‘Realism’ not Theory
Time Frame Theory Actual Reality
Hour 125 1,260
Day 3,000 25% 30,240
Week 21,000 40% 120,960
Month 84,000 30% 302,400
Year 1,000,800 1,000,800
10 times the capacity forecast

13. Communications
Before
• Confirm everything
– Forecast, Plans and Opportunities
– What is Plan B, Plan C, Plan D
During
• If its going well tell the world
• If its going badly tell the world
After
• Review, Re-plan, Reconfigure, (Revenge)

14. Review
Key to planning is an integrated review process
• Alignment from key stakeholders
• Agreement on service and forecasts
• Regular updates
• Costs……
All need to be consistently reviewed and updated
so that the distribution function has the chance
to succeed

15. How to Flex
Flexibility costs money…..Fact
• Automation
• People
• Space
• Incentive

16. Automation
• Not a cure all solution
• Small Steps are possible
• Minimum time for understanding, design and
build
• Substantial Investment and complex ROI
• Needs long term stability
• Or Major flexibility
• Ability to use 24/7

17. People
Resource (people) Management
• Training plans
• Supervisors/Buddy systems
• Agency Forecasts
• Voice Picking
• Video lessons
• Part time staff
• Banked hours programmes

18. Spare Capacity
Carrefour, Yodel, JLP and many others have
mothball sites
– Cost
– Security
Extra space available at reasonable rates from 3PLs
– Flexible
– Pre planning

19. Flexing
Spare Capacity Flexibility

20. Planning and forecasting with people
using automation to optimise our
flexibility and service to our customers
Flexibility
the antidote to uncertainty

21. Thank you