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The Saga Unravels the underlying
Independent notion of the world in
rebellion!
T
hroughout the cause of history mankind has always been met with difficulty to understand why
they have to be a part of institutionalized way of doing things. From being part of different ele-
ments of government, society, religion, race, community, association and even gender.
Somehow we are shaped into the design of the society in which we believe best represents our iden-
tity. In recent years we have continued to accept steadily the realities of our own identities and allow
for participation of a global acceptable standard to belong.
Inevitably, as the standards of acceptance continue to grow, we find some much harder to accept
than others. Take as an example the issue of homosexuality, the struggle of acceptance still shakes
the most advanced of democracies in the world. Simply because no matter how much acceptance is
allowed, there are just certain limits that our societies cannot easily erase from their group of asso-
ciation.
British population growth is not generally perceived to benefit British-born people. Migration stress-
es schools, hospitals, and above all, housing. The median house price in London already amounts to
12 times the median local salary. Rich migrants outbid British buyers for the best properties; poor
migrants are willing to crowd more densely into a dwelling than British-born people are accustomed
to tolerating.
I call it the spirit of independence, the need to yearn to belong. Currently the presidential race in the
US has come with a shock rabbit out of the hat support for Donald Trump. Listening to the defining
undertone of racial issues, one can conclude that Americans are not happy with its migrants, illegal
or not. Despite desperate measures to align strong policy and economic reform, Trump has opted for
a very unorthodox approach to his campaign. Drawing populous left wing American sentiments and
media and social media to execute his strategy. In any election year, Hilary Clinton would be an obvi-
ous winner, however the “Spirit of independence” has captured the Americans.
The world-over, this spirit continues to gain momentum. In South Africa early last year to date, Uni-
versity students have taken it up to themselves to galvanize a movement called #feesmustfall. This
relating to the high cost of university fees in higher learning. They are rebelling against a system that
has not allowed them the opportunity to equal and fair education.
+
The Spirit of independence is looming
The June 23 vote represents a huge popular rebellion against a future in which British people feel
increasingly crowded within—and even crowded out of—their own country: More than 200,000 Brit-
ish-born people leave the U.K. every year for brighter futures abroad, in Australia above all, the United
States in second place.
The force that turned Britain away from the European Union was the greatest mass migration since
perhaps the Anglo-Saxon invasion. 630,000 foreign nationals settled in Britain in the single year
2015. Britain’s population has grown from 57 million in 1990 to 65 million in 2015, despite a native
birth rate that’s now below replacement. On Britain’s present course, the population would top 70
million within another decade, half of that growth immigration-driven.
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england
53.4%Leave 15,188,406 VOTES
13,266,996 VOTES
Counting complete
Turnout: 73.0%
46.6%Remain
Northern Ireland
44.2%Leave 349,442 VOTES
440,707 VOTES
Counting complete
Turnout: 62.7%
55.8%Remain
Scotland
38.0%Leave 1,018,322 VOTES
1,661,191 VOTES
Counting complete
Turnout: 62.7%
62.0%Remain
wales
52.5%Leave 854,572 VOTES
772,347 VOTES
Counting complete
Turnout: 71.7%
47.5%Remain
nation results
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A
s with all economist, one almost has to guess what the outcome of the results really mean for our
nation. Well to start with our economy shares 20% of its offshore trading with the UK. Small per-
centage but significant both in number and industry relation. We export food and beverages to the
UK and other strategic influential trade relations. So let look at five worst case scenarios and their
probabilities to the effects of our economy.
The Effects to
South Africa
The “big bang Brexit”, will see a clean break be-
tween the EU and the UK. The UK would have
to repeal, re-enact or negotiate 5 000 regula-
tions, directives and decision relating to the in-
ternal market and 1 100 international treaties
between the EU. This will benefit South Africa
as it will break “fortress Europe”.
The UK will have to negotiate separate deals
with the EU, the rest of the world and the com-
monwealth. “South Africa will have to make that
work to our benefit”
A likely scenario, this is a customized bilater-
al agreement that establishes access to the
single market for specific sectors. Switzer-
land is part of the European Free Trade Agree-
ment (EFTA), yet not a member of the EEA.
It has also adopted the Free Movement of
People Agreement and another 120 bilateral
agreements with the EU, according to Henley
& Partners South Africa.
"Norway is a member of the European Eco-
nomic Area (EEA) - the single market - along
with the 28 current EU members, Liechten-
stein and Iceland"
South Africa recently signed the Southern
African Development Community-EU Eco-
nomic Partnership Agreement (EPA). Once
Brexit comes into play, it will need to sign a
Free Trade Agreement or similar trading ar-
rangement with the UK.
This is a good option rather than staying out complete-
ly.
According to the BBC, Turkey has a customs union
with the EU, “meaning no tariffs or quotas on industrial
goods exported to EU countries, (and it) has to apply
EU's external tariff on goods imported from outside
the EU”.
Scenario 1 | The big bang Brexit
Scenario 2 | Negotiating with separate deals
Scenario 4 | The Swiss model
Scenario 3 | The Norway model
Scenario 5 | The Turkey model
“It will reignite the Doha round ofWTO (WorldTrade
Organization) and there will be a better focus on
developmental issues, it will reduce agricultural
subsidies, African exports will grow and African
growth will benefit South Africa.”
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The worst-case scenario will occur if the EU or UK puts up significant trading barriers
that will make it more difficult to export or import goods and services between the EU
and UK.
What is in it for
RSA!
S
outh Africa has excellent trade agree-
ments with the EU and could fulfill a role
of providing goods and services to Eu-
rope.
The best case scenario for South Africa’s
traderelationswiththeUKwouldbeifitdevel-
ops a liberalization trade policy, as opposed
to the status quo or a protectionist policy.
In Summary
Although London is considered the central
hub of economic and financial activity, having
exited the EU could mean a reconsideration
for many businesses and their headquarters.
What will be a key factor is the pace at which
the UK reallocates and rearrange its policies
post Brexit. The sooner it’s done the better
for the rest of the world to identify with the
New Britain and build new strategic partner-
ships.
For South Africa, either way Britain and the
EU will continue doing business with us, what
may change are the terms and conditions of
trade.
Clive Ramathibela Smith
