Vietnam is a fast-growing lower middle income country that has received considerable inward investment in recent years. This revision webinar for A-level Economics looks at the contextual evidence on Vietnam and compares and contrasts their current growth with China. It analyses some of the key growth drivers and evaluates barriers to growth including environmental challenges and vulnerability to external economic shocks.
The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.
Financial contagion refers to “the spread of market disturbances -- mostly on the downside -- from one country to the other, a process observed through co-movements in exchange rates, stock prices, sovereign spreads, and capital flows." Financial contagion can be a potential risk for countries who are trying to integrate their financial system with international financial markets and institutions. It helps explain an economic crisis extending across neighboring countries, or even regions.
This study, drafted by the ITO company Officience, describes and analyses recent evolutions in the Vietnam's development, then focuses on ITsector. Actually, this growing country has emerged two decades ago and since it has known a huge leap forward. Thanks to this growth, Vietnam received more and more investings from foreign companies. This study brings out some macroeconomic and social specificities, espacially regarding the education field.
Dealing with IT issues, the Officience company underlines in this study levers used by Vietnam to promote and develop that IT sector. Indeed, this sector will go on growing and Vietnam is already perceived as a future leader of worldwide outsourcing services.
The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.
Financial contagion refers to “the spread of market disturbances -- mostly on the downside -- from one country to the other, a process observed through co-movements in exchange rates, stock prices, sovereign spreads, and capital flows." Financial contagion can be a potential risk for countries who are trying to integrate their financial system with international financial markets and institutions. It helps explain an economic crisis extending across neighboring countries, or even regions.
This study, drafted by the ITO company Officience, describes and analyses recent evolutions in the Vietnam's development, then focuses on ITsector. Actually, this growing country has emerged two decades ago and since it has known a huge leap forward. Thanks to this growth, Vietnam received more and more investings from foreign companies. This study brings out some macroeconomic and social specificities, espacially regarding the education field.
Dealing with IT issues, the Officience company underlines in this study levers used by Vietnam to promote and develop that IT sector. Indeed, this sector will go on growing and Vietnam is already perceived as a future leader of worldwide outsourcing services.
China is passing through massive transformation; from a command to a market economy, from an economy based on agriculture to one based on manufacturing and services, from one with high fertility and low longevity to one faced with OCDE style low fertility and high longevity, and from an economy that was almost totally closed to one that, today, even before her accession to the WTO, is much more open than most countries at the same level of income. This vast movement of transformation started on a very simple principle frequently stated by Deng Xioaping: “Poverty is not socialism”. Prosperity was the new face of the socialism according to Deng Xiaoping’s famous dictum: to get rich is glorious. In the past socialism used to mean government planning, for the new China, it means common prosperity.
Business Opportunities in Vietnam is presented by Ms. Ladda Mongkolchaiwiwat, GM - VNU Exhibitions Asia Pacific, prepared by Mr. Sarawut Burapapat, Strategic Communication Consultant - Market-Comms and sourced by Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency & Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Disclaimer:
All of the pictures and pieces of information on this site are the property of their respective owners. I do not hold any copyright in regards to these pictures and information. These pictures have been collected from different public sources including various websites, considered to be in the public domain. If anyone has any objection to display of any picture, image or information, it may be brought to my notice by sending an email (contact me) & the disputed media will be removed immediately, after verification of the claim.
The government’s economic policy is defined by five-year economic plans. China is at a critical stage of her development China will have move up the ‘value chain’ as it loses its competitive edge in labour-intensive sectors. China is still a relatively poor country with an estimated GDP per capita on a PPP basis of US$12,879 in 2014, lower than Thailand. Policies to increase the real incomes of China’s middle class will encourage more consumption as a share of GDP and make the economy less reliant on exports and investment as key sources of economic growth.
The Chinese economy has many structural imbalances that will need to be addressed for sustainable growth to be maintained:
Chinese economy remains reliant on credit growth, with overall debt rising to 280% of GDP in mid-2015
China will need to shift away from imitating/copying Western technologies to generating more innovation Increasing competitive challenges are coming from lower-unit cost countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico. Wages in the Chinese manufacturing sector have more than tripled since 2008.
China - A Country in Transition to a New Normaltutor2u
This is a revision presentation on key developments in the Chinese economy - designed for A level economics students preparing for their exams in June 2016
China is passing through massive transformation; from a command to a market economy, from an economy based on agriculture to one based on manufacturing and services, from one with high fertility and low longevity to one faced with OCDE style low fertility and high longevity, and from an economy that was almost totally closed to one that, today, even before her accession to the WTO, is much more open than most countries at the same level of income. This vast movement of transformation started on a very simple principle frequently stated by Deng Xioaping: “Poverty is not socialism”. Prosperity was the new face of the socialism according to Deng Xiaoping’s famous dictum: to get rich is glorious. In the past socialism used to mean government planning, for the new China, it means common prosperity.
Business Opportunities in Vietnam is presented by Ms. Ladda Mongkolchaiwiwat, GM - VNU Exhibitions Asia Pacific, prepared by Mr. Sarawut Burapapat, Strategic Communication Consultant - Market-Comms and sourced by Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency & Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Disclaimer:
All of the pictures and pieces of information on this site are the property of their respective owners. I do not hold any copyright in regards to these pictures and information. These pictures have been collected from different public sources including various websites, considered to be in the public domain. If anyone has any objection to display of any picture, image or information, it may be brought to my notice by sending an email (contact me) & the disputed media will be removed immediately, after verification of the claim.
The government’s economic policy is defined by five-year economic plans. China is at a critical stage of her development China will have move up the ‘value chain’ as it loses its competitive edge in labour-intensive sectors. China is still a relatively poor country with an estimated GDP per capita on a PPP basis of US$12,879 in 2014, lower than Thailand. Policies to increase the real incomes of China’s middle class will encourage more consumption as a share of GDP and make the economy less reliant on exports and investment as key sources of economic growth.
The Chinese economy has many structural imbalances that will need to be addressed for sustainable growth to be maintained:
Chinese economy remains reliant on credit growth, with overall debt rising to 280% of GDP in mid-2015
China will need to shift away from imitating/copying Western technologies to generating more innovation Increasing competitive challenges are coming from lower-unit cost countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico. Wages in the Chinese manufacturing sector have more than tripled since 2008.
China - A Country in Transition to a New Normaltutor2u
This is a revision presentation on key developments in the Chinese economy - designed for A level economics students preparing for their exams in June 2016
The Power-point discusses the macroeconomics of china. It discusses the inflation, unemployment in china, fiscal and monetary policy of china and the foreign exchange rate mechanism of china. It also discusses what can be the endgame for china for changing in its policy.
Asia Frontier Capital - AFC Vietnam Fund presentation 2015.08.09Thomas Hugger
The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invest in a diversified portfolio of 60-70 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk. This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger, Andreas Karall and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 75 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.
Humbert Pang, Managing Principal & Head of China, Gaw Capital, was one of the keynote speakers at the Asia Business Forum, organised by London Business School's Asia Club, on 27 April 2013. He spoke about the characteristics of the Chinese housing market and the future outlook for the industry.
Find out more about the Asia Club:
Website: https://clubs.london.edu/asiaclub
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LBS.AsiaClub
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LBSAsiaClub
This presentation by Arsenio M. Balisacan, Chairman, Philippine Competition Commission, was made during the discussion “How can competition contribute to fairer societies?” held during the 17th OECD Global Forum on Competition on 29 November 2018. More documents and presentations on this topic can be found at oe.cd/cfs.
This is a three slide short profile of the macroeconomic and development performance of South Korea. The country has successfully achieved high income status and membership of the OECD. The overall macroeconomic numbers are enviably benign - especially low unemployment, continued growth, low inflation and a strong external position. That said the economy also faces many longer term challenges and threats and the South Korean government is attempting to bring in reforms to sustain and improve their competitiveness. This profile is designed for A level economics students.
Ultimo informe elaborado por Atradius Crédito y Caución, sobre las economías de Asia-Pacífico, donde se analizan los plazos de pago y las previsiones de insolvencias para 2017
Similar to Economic Growth and Development in Vietnam (20)
In this revision presentation we look at recent trends in UK trade union membership, consider how trade unions can affect both pay and employment and challenge the textbook view that union-negotiated pay increases inevitably have negative consequences for employment.
In this revision presentation we cover key examples of pure and quasi public goods and consider the arguments for and against an increase in government spending on public goods.
Poverty Reduction Policies in Low Income Countriestutor2u
This revision presentation covers some of the main causes of continued high levels of extreme poverty in low and middle income countries and considers a range of pro-poor government interventions designed to increase productivity and regular employment and waged income in formal labour markets.
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
Microeconomics - Great Applied Examples for Examstutor2u
In this presentation, I have chosen loads of current examples that you might want to use as context in your microeconomics exams. We look at examples from different market structures, recent mergers and takeovers, the world's most valuable companies, the largest employer, unicorn business, de-mergers, the biggest initial public offerings (IPOs) and much else. Hopefully a useful video to go through to add some super examples into your revision notes.
This revision presentation considers the variety of stakeholders impacted by business activity. How will a change in objectives, such as a move from profit maximisation to revenue maximisation have an effect on different stakeholders?
This revision presentation looks at profit satisficing as an alternative objective for businesses. Why might firms satisfice? What are some of the possible consequences for economic welfare and efficiency?
In this short revision video, we look at the substantial productivity gap between the UK and many of the UK’s major competitor countries.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist said twenty fives years ago that “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything,”
In this presentation we consider the theory of wage-setting with a monopsony employer and the possible impact that a trade union might have on wages and employment. We also look at efficiency wage theory and mutual gains from pay bargaining between stakeholders.
For many economists, the labour market is the most important market of all to study, analyse and evaluate. Like product markets for goods and services, labour markets can also fail. The main types of labour market failure are labour immobility including skills gaps, inequality, disincentives to be economically active, labour market discrimination and the effects of monopsony power of employers.
Updated revision presentation on aspects of behavioural economics and topical issues where behavioural nudges are being used to change the choices of consumers and businesses.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
2. The State shall guarantee and
promote the People’s right to
mastery; to recognize, respect,
protect, and guarantee human
rights and citizens’ rights; and
to pursue the goal of a
prosperous people and a
strong, democratic, equitable,
and civilized country, in which
all people enjoy an abundant,
free, and happy life and are
given conditions for their
comprehensive development.
Article 3 of the 2013
Constitution of the Socialist
Republic of Vietnam
3. Vietnam’s Growth/Development Model
• Đoi Moi reforms (renovation) launched in 1986 – aimed
to create a socialist-oriented market economy
• Vietnam has made a transition from low to middle-
income country – the $1.90-a-day extreme poverty rate
fell from 50 percent in the early 1990s to 3 percent today
• Per capita income in Vietnam has gone from around $100
in the 1980s to about $2,100 in 2015, PPP is >$5,000
• Vietnam remains a one-party socialist state run by the
Communist Party but embracing free-market policies
• Strongly export-oriented – free trade deals with South
Korea, TPP signatory, EU FTA due in 2018, TTP signatory
• Growth model built on heavy inward investment and
rapid transition away from farming and low value textiles
4. Fastest growing countries in 2016
10.3%
8.07%
7.98%
7.62%
7.48%
7.17%
6.99%
6.92%
6.64%
6.59%
6.5%
6.49%
6.4%
6.1%
6.03%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Iraq
Myanmar
Côte d'Ivoire
India
Lao P.D.R.
Tanzania
Cambodia
Bangladesh
Senegal
China
Djibouti
Ethiopia
Philippines
Vietnam
Bhutan
GDP growth compared to previous year
5. Real Economic Growth Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual % change in real national output (GDP), Source: IMF
China Gross domestic product, constant prices
Vietnam Gross domestic product, constant prices
11. Is Vietnam following the Chinese model?
• China’s ”authoritarian capitalist model of development” – a
hybrid form of capitalism
• Builds on earlier, state-centered Asian models of
development such as in South Korea and Taiwan
1. Emphasis on gradual reforms rather than shock therapy
2. 5 year plans to set priorities / send signals – establish a
blueprint for development and changes in growth drivers
3. Control of the exchange rate / capital controls
4. Government ownership/control of strategic industries
5. Heavy investment in primary education
6. Focus on cutting extreme poverty / rural/urban divide
7. Favourable environment for inward foreign investment
8. Special Economic Zones / export driven growth
12. Is Vietnam different from China?
• A socialist-oriented “market economy”
• Country has maintained more of their pre—communist
traditions / cultures
• Higher ratio of domestic consumption / GDP
• More willing to operate a floating currency
• Significantly higher export/GDP ratio
• Strong connections with the United States (biggest
export partner + military ties)
• Suggestions of deeper entrepreneurial culture
• Slower than China to privatize state-owned businesses
13. Growth Drivers
Inward FDI Trade surplus
Rising per
capita incomes
Emerging
middle class of
consumers
Favourable
demographics
Increasing
factor
productivity
Investment in
tourism
State
investment in
infrastructure
Rapid
urbanization
Key Drivers of Growth in Vietnam
14. Capital Investment (% of GDP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Gross Investment at constant prices as % of GDP, Source: IMF
China Total investment Vietnam Total investment
Vietnam has large infrastructure needs – capital investment probably has to rise
to 30-35% of GDP but this will require an increase in the national savings rate
15. FDI into the Vietnamese Economy
Two examples:
LG Display in Hai
Phong ($1.5 billion),
Samsung R&D Centre
($300 million)
18. Vietnam: Urbanization from 2005 to 2015
27.28% 27.89% 28.5% 29.13% 29.76% 30.39% 31.03% 31.67% 32.31% 32.95% 33.59%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Share of total population
19. Vietnam: Demographics
Vietnam is the world’s 13th most populous country, with a population of over
90 million people with a median age of 30.
24.5 23.6
21.8
19.1
18.1 18.3 19
20
21
22.2
24.2
26.4
28.5
30.4
32.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Medianageinyears
20. Vietnam – an increasingly open economy
Trade for Vietnam accounts for roughly 180% of national output,
more than any other country at its level of per-capita GDP.
21. Rapid Growth of trade for Vietnam
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Annual % change in volume of exports and imports of goods/services
Vietnam Volume of Imports of goods Vietnam Volume of exports of goods
22. Vietnam - Manufacturing Competitiveness
• Ranked 18th/40 countries for manufacturing by
Deloitte in 2016, forecast 12th by 2020
• Labour costs per hour: $1.96/hour
• Labour productivity: $8,935.90 GDP/person
• Manufacturing exports (2014) $107.9bn
equivalent to 72% of total Vietnamese exports
• Vietnam’s geographical location favours regional
supply chain integration (proximity matters a lot
in trade!)
27. The Rapid Growth of Tourism
Tourism is a key part of their growth strategy
28.
29. Vietnam: Most important export partners in 2015
21.2%
13.3%
8.4%
5.5%
4.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
United States China Japan South Korea Germany
Shareintotalexport
30. Vietnam’s Current Account
• Current account surplus adds to AD
• Strong net inflows of remittances
from Vietnam’s diaspora
• High levels of FDI into Vietnam help
explain negative investment income
• Strong trade surplus in goods – the
result of export oriented growth
33. Vietnam remains a small economy!
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Value of annual GDP, PPP adjusted
China Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP
Vietnam Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP
38. Vulnerability to climate change
Exposure to slowdown in US, China, Japan
and South Korea
Under-developed land and capital markets
Robotics & future of manufacturing
Low productivity agriculture (a clear dual
economy)
Over-reliance on FDI (Mexican Effect)
De-globalisation / rising protectionism
39. Middle Income Trap
Middle Income Trap
Growth rates may slow
significantly before a nation
transitions to high income
• Productivity slowdown
• Limits to factor input
driven economic growth
• Institutional reforms take
too long
• Demographics start to bite
• Higher inflation and
financial instability
• Countries fail to move to
productivity and
innovation driven growth
• High inequality can
dampen domestic
consumption / internal
growth and hamper
innovation & investment
41. Economic Growth and Development in Vietnam
Key Macro Data
Latest annual GDP
Growth (%)
6.7%
GDP or GNI per capita
(US $, PPP)
$6,558
Inflation (%) 4.6%
Unemployment rate
(% of labour force)
2.2%
Fiscal balance
(% of GDP)
-5.5%
Govt debt (% of GDP) 58.3%
Yield on 10-Yr Govt
Bonds (Per Cent)
Investment
(% of GDP)
28%
Gross national savings (%
of GDP)
Background Information
Currency unit Dong
Exchange rate system
Semi-
Fixed
Policy interest rate 6.5%
Member of a Regional
Trade Agreement
ASEAN
& TPP
WTO Member
Joined
2007
Corporate tax rate (Per
Cent)
20%
Competitiveness rank 56th
Corruption Perception
Ranking
113rd
Ease of Doing Business
Ranking
82nd
External Debt
(% of GDP)
Aspects of Development
Latest HDI ranking 115th
Income inequality HDI
ranking
Gender inequality HDI
ranking
71st
% of population living in
extreme poverty
Life Expectancy at birth
(years)
73M /
77F
Gini coefficient (Latest
published estimate)
0.36
Inward FDI (% of GDP) 5.2%
Remittances (% of GDP)
Aid (% of GDP)
42. Contextual Background on Vietnamese Economy
Economic Structure
Share of GDP by value added (% of GDP)
Primary: 17%
Industrial: 33%
Services: 50%
Main export industries (+ major firms)
Textiles, apparel
Mobile phones (20% of exports in 2016)
Television screens, tourism
Key drivers of economic growth
13th most populous country, with a population of
over 90 million people with a median age of 29
High inward investment + rapid productivity gains
Emerging middle class – driving consumption
Development and Growth Issues / Policies
3 factors limiting development progress
Inefficient state-owned enterprises
Fragile banking system, fast-growth of debt
Environmental challenges
3 policies used to improve the supply-side
Privatisation of state-enterprises
Continued high spending on education & health
Public Private Partnerships for infrastructure I
Long term challenges facing this country
Avoiding the middle income trap
Raising productivity in the farm sector
Vulnerability to the effects of climate change
Editor's Notes
Vietnam is an economy in transition, transforming from a state-dominated, centrally planned system into one increasingly driven by market forces and owned by the private sector
Vietnam was the only lower-middle-income member in TPP
Vietnam is a country of 90 million people, the 14th most populous on the planet.
Vietnam’s location on the easternmost edge of the Indochinese peninsula makes it a vital link between East, Southeast, and South Asia.
Vietnam has been ranked among the five countries likely to be most affected by climate change / changing weather patterns and natural disasters – over 1% of GDP is lost every year to extreme weather events such as floods and droughts
Doi-Moi (pronounced Dough-Moy)
A booming economy has produced all the typical imbalances of rapid development – wide-scale corruption, income inequality and growing disparities between urban and rural areas, as well as the kinh majority and numerous ethnic minorities
Can Vietnam continue to achieve gains in real per capita incomes similar to the Chinese path?
Vietnam’s growth pattern shows striking similarities with China’s development a decade ago.
Vietnam has become China’s manufacturing outsourcing hub of choice
One Belt One Road initiative will increase flow of Chinese goods into Vietnam but also help Vietnam with burgeoning electronics sector
Viet Nam’s HDI value for 2015 is 0.683— which put the country in the medium human development category—positioning it at 115 out of 188 countries and territories.
Its per capita GDP growth since 1990 has been among the fastest in the world, surpassed only by China.
Between 1990-2015, Vietnam’s life expectancy at birth increased by 5.4 years, mean years of schooling increased by 4.1 years and expected years of schooling increased by 4.8 years
Vietnam’s young, large and educated population – the literacy rate is 94% – also helps explain the export boom. Manufacturers can establish and run a factory relatively easily, says Tom Nelson of clothing group VF, owner of the Timberland brand
FDI is on track for another record year in 2016 – attracted by low costs, improving infrastructure and skills and a deregulated business environment increasingly open to 100% foreign ownership - large FDI inflows into Vietnam are linked, in part, to a shift in low-wage production from China
South Korea was the main source of FDI in 2016. investing over $7 billion in Vietnam
Two economies within one country? Domestic businesses not contributing much deeper through the supply chain
In the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) study, even though Vietnam had the lowest GDP per capita, the performance of its students exceeded many OECD countries. Vietnam’s mean score in mathematics, for example, was above that of Austria and just below that of Germany. Vietnam’s measured scores were boosted because about one-fourth of Vietnamese students are no longer in school by age 15 and lower-performing students are more likely to have dropped out.
Reflected in lower maternal mortality than for lower middle income countries +
Urbanization generally helps frontier economies become more productive, as cities encourage economies of scale in production and distribution, and firms tend to benefit from knowledge transfers and a larger, more diverse labor pool when they are surrounded by lots of other companies.
Urbanisation: Vietnam already has some very large cities (someone quoted 10m in Hanoi - with 8m motorbikes!).
Trade accounts for roughly 180% of national output, more than any other country at its level of per-person GDP
Vietnam’s exports amounted to $150 billion in 2014 (equivalent to 80 percent of GDP), three- quarters of which were manufactured goods. Most of these exports are powered by FDI, the stock of which now stands at more than $250 billion, sourced from more than 100 countries.
Vietnam is one of the main beneficiaries of the stage of development currently underway in the region, whereby export-oriented manufacturers, especially large North Asian corporate groups, need to find a new, less costly base for their production as factor production costs increase in China.
MITIV - Malaysia, India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam - all these countries have a competitive advantage over China in the manufacture of labour intensive commodity type products like apparel, toys, textiles and basic consumer electronics
Graduation from middle income to high income requires a diverse and sophisticated product mix.
Vietnam needs to diversify its trade partners to avoid strong dependency on China
High-tech manufactured goods (especially mobile phones and electronics) now represent 30% of total exports, compared with less than 10% in 2010.
World’s largest exporter of cashews and black pepper, 2nd largest exporter of coffee and cassava and 3rd largest exporter of rice and fisheries.
Their primary source of tourists is China, where it used to have more significant Russian component
Vietnam’s mountains and coastal landscapes make it an attractive tourism destination, a potential that is far from fully tapped.
For Vietnam to succeed in its growth and economic modernization ambitions, its cities need to do more to nurture private enterprise and innovation, support the growth of industrial clusters integrated with global value chains, and attract and agglomerate talent
Vietnam operates a managed floating exchange rate – the external value of the Dong is adjusted daily to a basket of foreign currencies and fluctuating by a maximum of 3% around a trading band with the USD. Many places also accept USD, but the merchant will apply their own XR which tends not to be favourable!
A large part of Vietnam’s protective mangrove forests has been destroyed, while overfishing has seriously depleted the nearshore fisheries, posing threats to livelihoods. Removing natural forests in some upland areas has contributed to more frequent and severe flooding of lower altitude farms and human settlements. Finally, Vietnam is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, with adaptation challenges accordingly severe, especially in the Mekong Delta
Agriculture already uses 82% of available freshwater in Viet Nam
There are few joint ventures (around 80 percent of FDI in Vietnam is in 100-percent foreign invested companies), and the vertical link between FDI and local companies is weak (only about a quarter of inputs in FDI are purchased in Vietnam, of which a significant proportion is from other foreign-invested companies
China is significantly bigger – gives the country more bargaining power with MNCs
Vietnam is an economy in transition, transforming from a state-dominated, centrally planned system into one increasingly driven by market forces and owned by the private sector