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DSD-INT 2021 Probabilistic Toolkit (PTK) - Brinkman
The document presents an introduction to the Probabilistic Toolkit by Rob Brinkman, detailing its functionalities in connecting and analyzing uncertainties within deterministic models. It covers advanced techniques such as sensitivity analysis and model reliability, while highlighting the toolkit's integration with various software and cloud computing capabilities. The toolkit is under beta testing until July 2022, with plans for future development and potential open-source options.
DSD-INT 2021 Probabilistic Toolkit (PTK) - Brinkman
- 1. Rob Brinkman Delft SoftwareDays – Edition 2021 Probabilistic Toolkit
- 2. Introduction • Rob Brinkman −Specialist probabilistic software
- 3. Contents webinar • IntroductionProbabilistic Toolkit • Connect Piping • Connect D-Stability using Python • Advanced techniques • Cloud computing
- 4. Why the ProbabilisticToolkit • ADDS UNCERTAINTIES TO A DETERMINISTIC MODEL • Usable for (almost) any model • Without additional software development • ALLOWS PROBABILISTIC ANALYSES • Sensitivity analysis, model uncertainty, calibration and probability of failure • RESULTING IN • Determination of model uncertainty • Determination of reliability
- 5. Probabilistic Toolkit –analyses and connections Probabilistic Toolkit Run model Sensitivity analysis Model uncertainty Calibration Reliability analysis Deterministic model D-Stability Piping D-GEO Suite Delft3D FM Suite Plaxis Python scripts Excel Combinations
- 6. Probabilistic toolkit Working withthe Probabilistic Toolkit Create input file D-Stability Define uncertainties Sensitivity analysis Model uncertainty Calibration Check calculations Connect input and model Run model Reliability analysis
- 7. Piping • Attach scriptto Probabilistic Toolkit • Define limit state function • Choose reliability method • Run and inspect results
- 8. Questions Undock pane fromControl Panel
- 9. Macro-stability • Connect D-Stabilityapplication to Probabilistic Toolkit • Calculate phreatic line • Run for several water levels • Inspect results in D-Stability
- 10. Probabilistic toolkit Use Pythonto set phreatic line Python script D-Stability Water level Strength parameters Phreatic line
- 11. Python methods torun Probabilistic Toolkit • Use Python methods to load, modify or run Probabilistic Toolkit • Develop tailor made applications with Probabilistic Toolkit calculations in background • Perform automated multiple Probabilistic Toolkit calculations
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- 13. Questions Undock pane fromControl Panel
- 14. Reliability methods forMacro-stability • Various options for reliability calculation • Monte Carlo analysis • Importance Sampling • Automated Importance Sampling • Find gradient with sensitivity analysis • Find limit state in this direction
- 15. Questions Undock pane fromControl Panel
- 16. Cloud computing 2-11-2021 Probabilistic toolkit Pythonscript D-Stability Water level Cloud D-Stability Strength parameters input-file output-file
- 17. Cloud computing results •Runs: 774 D-Stability runs • Local machine (8 nodes): 45 minutes • Cloud (100 nodes): 15 minutes • Cloud computing is in development • Cloud computing service by Deltares is in development
- 18. Working with theProbabilistic Toolkit • Download from Deltares Download Portal − https://download.deltares.nl • License − Beta license until July 1st, 2022 − No costs − We like to get feedback • Future − Support contract − Open source (calculation kernel, GUI) − Cooperation
- 19. Questions Undock pane fromControl Panel
- 20. Closing • Thank youfor your attention !!!