With dry bulk earnings expected to jump in 2h14, led by Capesizes, we can expect owners to order another 12% of the fleet (85 mdwt) during 2014, following a 12.3% of fleet performance in 2013. Once in a utilisation hole, it is difficult to exit without a major shift in demand and/or supply, given the elasticity of the supply curve at low utilisations. The current over-supply of tonnage is structural, and requires a structural solution. Ordering at this pace just ensures more carnage in 2017-18.