Getting residents and businesses back into Christchurch's central city
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Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014 Building Evidence: 50 Shades of black and white: are statistics, surveys and research the new sexy in uncertain times?
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Getting residents and businesses back into Christchurch's central city
- 3. What would it take to get you into the central city? Creating agile evidence for rebuild decision-makers Seismic & the City 2014 Dr Vivienne Ivory Opus Research
- 4. • How to sustain Christchurch over the recovery phase? • How can research inform the recovery phase? Virtual experiment. Natural experiment It’s going to take a while, so…
- 5. ‘Virtual’ experiment – faced with a scenario of moving to the central city, what is most important to your quality of life? • Neighbourhood priorities? • Dwelling priorities? • Would they stay? Trying something different (part 1)
- 6. Neighbourhood priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life? Trying something different (part 1)
- 7. • Dwelling priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life? Trying something different (part 1) Change in dwelling options over rebuild Valueselected(1-5) Increasingly rebuilt central city
- 8. Would they choose to stay? Response to the ‘virtual’ experiment
- 9. • Content based on current evidence: – quality of life, – healthy neighbourhoods, – mobility patterns • Needs haven’t changed • Willing to try alternatives? What factors could affect uptake? Surprised? Not really
- 11. Affordability advantage Final stage selected by dwelling cost ‘experience’
- 12. Participants responded with an urban lifestyle • Local travel • Reduced car trips • Everyday needs met locally (food, recreation, socialising) Lifestyle advantage
- 13. Balancing dwelling and neighbourhood features Changes in satisfaction with living environment over rebuild stages Satisfaction (10=very satisfied) Increasingly rebuilt central city
- 14. ‘Natural’ experiment Trying something different (part 2)
- 15. Changing where business takes place
- 16. Changing where business takes place
- 17. Changing where business takes place
- 18. Changing where business takes place
- 19. Changing where business takes place
- 20. Changing what business takes place here 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Numberofbusinessunits Russley: trends for business units 2000-2013 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scienti fic and Technical Services
- 21. Changing what business takes place here 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Numberofbusinessunits Phillipstown: trends for business units 2000-2013 Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scienti fic and Technical Services
- 22. • Business continuity > adaption • But now? ‘normal location factors??? – Broadband and other business infrastructure – Personal amenity value – family & friends, attractive environments, social scene – Accessibility for employees, trade – Agglomeration (dependent on sector, size of city, etc) A surprising response?
- 23. • How much adaptability can business & the city take? • Implications for business in novel settings? • And for their ‘hosting’ neighbourhoods? Will location matter over the recovery?
- 24. Trends over time Flows within the city and beyond Dynamics of economic recovery:
- 25. • What needs to be put in place now for the future vision • Maintaining business & households in atypical environments • To be continued… How can Christchurch meet those needs as the city keeps changing? Neighbourhood infrastructure Residential sector ‘Local’ commercial sector
Editor's Notes
- Having a robust, relevant evidence-base is crucial for decision-makers in uncertain times. Creating that evidence base quickly is challenging. A study by Opus Research on central city living shows how current evidence can be used to test future possibilities, identifying downstream barriers and opportunities to successful recovery.
- Challenge for me as a researcher is to learn by observation and testing, but more critically, to bring evidence together in a way that helps the recovery process along the way
- Families are an important part of the market – therefore if build environments with them in mind then increase overall population
- Despite compromising on dwelling features in the later stages of the rebuild, average level of satisfaction increased in response to the improved neighbourhood environment
- Unique circumstances dissipating / disrupting CBD and disrupting agglomerationsAmazing response to adapt to novel circumstances – doing what was needed to keep goingWhat happens next? Current evidence base around disruption and relocation tells us that business and people may become entrenched in novel locations as the city consolidates over the recoveryIf so, will there be tension between the suburbs and center as new property comes on stream?
- Describe datasetDots equal percentage change in total number of business units in each neighbourhood from year to year. Red = increase, blue = decrease, larger dot = the larger the increaseBefore EQ’s an average change of 10% up or down – areas fluctuate Feb 2011 numbers to early too see changePost quake – 2012 big shift out of central city, to areas that had been increasing but also to other areas2013, starting to see some return back but also minimal decrease in western areas – but very early days in rebuild
- Describe datasetDots equal percentage change in total number of business units in each neighbourhood from year to year. Red = increase, blue = decrease, larger dot = the larger the increaseBefore EQ’s an average change of 10% up or down – areas fluctuate Feb 2011 numbers to early too see changePost quake – 2012 big shift out of central city, to areas that had been increasing but also to other areas2013, starting to see some return back but also minimal decrease in western areas – but very early days in rebuild
- Describe datasetDots equal percentage change in total number of business units in each neighbourhood from year to year. Red = increase, blue = decrease, larger dot = the larger the increaseBefore EQ’s an average change of 10% up or down – areas fluctuate Feb 2011 numbers to early too see changePost quake – 2012 big shift out of central city, to areas that had been increasing but also to other areas2013, starting to see some return back but also minimal decrease in western areas – but very early days in rebuild
- Describe datasetDots equal percentage change in total number of business units in each neighbourhood from year to year. Red = increase, blue = decrease, larger dot = the larger the increaseBefore EQ’s an average change of 10% up or down – areas fluctuate Feb 2011 numbers to early too see changePost quake – 2012 big shift out of central city, to areas that had been increasing but also to other areas2013, starting to see some return back but also minimal decrease in western areas – but very early days in rebuild
- Describe datasetDots equal percentage change in total number of business units in each neighbourhood from year to year. Red = increase, blue = decrease, larger dot = the larger the increaseBefore EQ’s an average change of 10% up or down – areas fluctuate Feb 2011 numbers to early too see changePost quake – 2012 big shift out of central city, to areas that had been increasing but also to other areas2013, starting to see some return back but also minimal decrease in western areas – but very early days in rebuild
- Why important?Business viabilityMoving to a novel & less than ideal environmentWhere places have changed around a business – can they adapt to a new client base or lack of clientsCommunity viability What is the interaction between new and old businesses and residential sector?Can’t look at churn within areas – need other data
- Will suburbs want their guests to leave or will they want to build an extension? If so, what will they think if “CBD” business wants to go to own home?
- Two distinguishing features of our study: 1) longitudinal (understand what happens over time); 2) multilevel (understand how components, locations, and levels interact to contribute to economic activity