2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
Dr deren international security ppt [tryb zgodności]
1. Asymetryczność wyzwaniem dla bezpieczeństwa XXI w.
Asymmertical Security Challenges in the 21st Century
II MIĘDZYNARODOWA KONFERENCJA NAUKOWA
METODOLOGIA BADAŃ BEZPIECZEŃSTWA
NARODOWEGO „BEZPIECZEŃSTWO 2011”
Celem nauki nie jest otwieranie drzwi
nieskończonej mądrości, lecz położenie
kresu nieskończonych błędów
B. Brecht
Warszawa, 17-18 listopada 2011
Sunday, 20 November 2011 dr inż. Jerzy DEREŃ derenj@wp.pl
2. AGENDA
q Asymetryczność w systemie bezpieczeństwa
q Ewolucja systemu bezpieczeństwa
q Asymetryczność w teorii konfliktów
q Zagrożenia asymetryczne
q Asymetryczność a planowanie zdolności
q Asymetryczność a sieciocentryczność
q Konflikty asymetryczne (wybrane przykłady)
q Obserwacje
4. Bezpieczeństwo jako
n Brak zagrożenia
n Instytucjonalne i pozainstytucjonalne
gwarancje likwidacji lub minimalizacji zagrożeń
n Wartość egzystencjalna wiążąca się z
poczuciem stabilności, trwałości korzystnego
stanu rzeczy, wrażeniem pewności i
odczuciem braku stanu zagrożenia
11/20/2011 COMBAT MODELS Session 3 4
Oprac. własne na podst. P Sienkiewicz, seminaria wydziałowe, AON, Warszawa 2008
5. HOLISTYCZNE PODEJŚCIE DO BEZPIECZEŃSTWA
ZDOLNOŚCI
SIECIOCENTRYCZNE
KONWENCJONALNE
(COP – ewentualnościowe)
vNiepewność ZAGROŻENIA
vNiejasność
ASYMETRYCZNE
vNieprzewidywalność
v+ współzależna niestabilność KONWENCJONALNE
EBAO
CD OPP konwencjonalne
STRATEGIA
11/20/2011 COMBAT MODELS Session 3 5
Oprac. własne na podst. P Sienkiewicz, seminaria wydziałowe, AON, Warszawa 2008
8. Nowi gracze SBM w kontekście
kryzysu ekonomicznego i
protestów „oburzonych” (1:99)
Chiny
USA
Indie
Rosja
Unia Europejska
Turcja + kraje islamu
Dr. Henry Kissinger: "The
centre of gravity of world affairs has left
the Atlantic and moved to the Pacific and Indian Oceans"
11. POLITYKA STRATEGIA KONCEPCJE DOKTRYNY TTP SOP/SOI
RMA
Prekursor transformacji
ASYMETRYCZNOŚĆ
The military concept of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is a theory about the future of warfare, often
connected to technological and organizational recommendations for change in the United States military and
others. Especially tied to modern information, communications, and space technology, RMA is often linked to
current discussions under the label of Transformation and total systems integration in the US military.
12. 1993 1992
vRapid Decisive Operations,
vEffects Based Operations, and
vtheories related to long-range precision engagement
13. GEOGRAFIA KONFLIKTÓW ZBROJNYCH XX/XXI WIEKU
XX wiek - 180 konfliktów zbrojnych na świecie
(140 rozpoczęło się po II wojnie światowej)
Lata 30. – 50. ubiegłego wieku –
Azja Południowo-Wschodnia
Od lat 50. – Afryka i Bliski Wschód
59 konfliktów po zakończeniu „zimnej wojny”
Najkrwawsze konflikty po II wojnie światowej
Indochiny 1954
Straty ludności cywilnej Korea 1950 -1953
I wojna światowa
80%
w ogólnej liczbie strat II wojna światowa
Bliski Wschód 1948, 1956, 1967,1973,1982, 2006
wojna koreańska
wojna wietnamska Algieria 1954 - 1962
AFGANISTAN & IRAK
70% wojna w b.Jugosławii
60% Wietnam 1961 - 1974
Kongo 1961
50%
Nikaragua 1967 - 1970
40%
Etiopia 1977 - 1978
30%
Irak - Iran 1978 - 1988
20%
Afganistan 1978 - 1989
10%
Była Jugosławia 1992 -1995
0%
Irak 2003………..
I wojna II wojna wojna wojna wojna w Źródło: Artymiak R.
światowa światowa koreańskwietnamska
b.Jugosławii „Wojny i konflikty w XX w.” Afganistan 2001………..
a
14. Konflikty o wymiarze globalnym
Ucisk dyktatur i bieda
Huntington S.P., Zderzenie cywilizacji: tezy pierwotnego artykułu w FA z 1993: „World
politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the
dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. Civilizations-the highest cultural
groupings of people-are differentiated from each other by religion, history, language and
tradition. These divisions are deep and increasing in importance. From Yugoslavia to the Middle
East to Central Asia, the fault lines of civilizations are the battle lines of the future”.
16. wielowariantowość zagrożeń
„……asymetryczność zagrożeń i działań [..]
Jego istotą jest działanie pośrednie, omijanie silnych
stron przeciwnika i atakowanie jego miejsc słabych,
najbardziej wrażliwych; stosowanie środków i metod
niekonwencjonalnych.
To nie jest pojedynek rycerski na „udeptanym polu“ i
wedle ustalonych reguł. Jedyną regułą jest unikanie
reguł.
Istotą działań asymetrycznych jest wciąganie
przeciwnika w obszary nieznane, wykorzystywanie jego
siły przeciwko niemu, a jego słabości jako własnej siły.”
www.koziej.pl WSTĘP DO TEORII I HISTORII
BEZPIECZEŃSTWA Warszawa/Ursynów 2010
17. inne definicje asymetryczności:
definicje
Defined by transformational use of familiar and unfamiliar
‘capability clusters’ or by pitting of different organizational
structures against each other. (staff.maxwell.syr.edu)
Involves states of unequal aggregate power capabilities,
measured in terms of material resources i.e. size,
demography, military capability and economic prowess,
strategy and tactics. (T.V. Paul)
Asymmetric warfare is “leveraging inferior tactical or
operational strength against the vulnerabilities of a superior
opponent to achieve disproportionate effect with the aim of
undermining the opponent’s will in order to achieve the
asymmetric actor’s strategic objectives”.(Kenneth
McKenzie).
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
18. Wojny typu inter- i extra-state w latach 1990-2008
Wojna asymetryczna wg I. Arreguìn-Tofta:
n Konflikt zbrojny, w którym stosunek sił pomiędzy
aktorami wynosi 1:10
n Siła = populacja + liczebność sił zbrojnych
Opracowanie własne na podstawie A Cianciara według bazy danych M.R. Sarkees, F.W. Wayman, Resort to War 1816-2007 , Washington 2010.
19. uznawany za prekursora
badań nad
Vol. 27, No. 2, Jan., 1975
„asymetrycznością”
„…Political will….”
20. Academic authors tend to focus more on explaining the puzzle of weak actor victory in war: if
"power," conventionally understood, conduces to victory in war, then how is the victory of the
"weak" over the "strong" explained?
Key explanations include:
(1) strategic interaction;
(2) willingness of the weak to suffer more or bear higher costs;
(3) external support of weak actors;
(4) reluctance to escalate violence on the part of strong actors;
(5) internal group dynamics, and
(6) inflated strong actor war aims.
Asymmetric conflicts include both interstate and civil wars, and over the past two hundred years
have generally been won by strong actors.
Since 1950, however, weak actors have won a
majority of all asymmetric conflicts.
21. Politico-military strategy in
asymmetric war initiation
An asymmetric war initiator may choose
among three strategies for conducting war:
vattrition/maneuver,
vblitzkrieg (lightning strike), and
Cambridge University Press, 1994 vlimited aims/fait accompli
(fakty dokonane (bez odwrotu))
22.
23.
24. PRZEPŁYW ZASOBÓW W „NOWYCH ASYMETRYCZNYCH WOJNACH”
B Balcerowicz za Kaldor M., New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in the Global Era, Policy Press, Cambridge 2002
25. Wnioski wg Metz’a
Złe aspekty wpływu asymetrii mogą być złagodzone, lecz trudno je wyeliminować, co
nie oznacza, że USA zbliżają się do krawędzi katastrofy.
Siły zbrojne USA, ich struktury organizacyjne, potencjał technologiczny, strategie i
doktryny mogą sprostać większości z zagrożeń asymetrycznych, lub też szybko być
przystosowane do spełnienia takich wymagań.
Im lepiej potencjał militarny USA jest przystosowywany do takich zagrożeń, tym bardziej
będzie mógł sprostać wymaganiom doktrynalnym asymetryczności.
Wszystkie uzasadnione wymaganiami zdolności zapewnią siłom zbrojnym USA
przewagę nad większością asymetrycznych oponentów.
W oparciu o wyniki badan rekomenduje się amerykańskim siłom zbrojnym doskonalenie
metodologii prowadzenia analiz asymetryczności, a w szczególności:
26. Przyjęcie jednej uniwersalnej DEFINICJI ASYMETRYCZNOŚCI
w celu opracowania zintegrowanej strategii w oparciu o:
pięć funkcjonujących koncepcji strategicznych:
Maximum Adaptability and Flexibility,
Focused Intelligence,
Minimal Vulnerability,
Full Dimensional Precision,
and Integrated Homeland Security
into (w)
.
American national security strategy
29. PROBLEMY GLOBALNE
Zagrożenie proliferacjaą BRONI NUKLEARNEJ
BIOLOGICZNEJ I CHEMICZNEJ
MIGRACJE TRANS GRANICZNE HANDEL BRONIĄ
KONFLIKTY MIĘDZYNARODOWE
TERRORYZM I
CYBERTERRORYZM
TYRANIE I DYKTATURY
BOGATA PÓŁNOC
vs. BIEDNE POŁUDNIE
RUCH „OBURZONYCH”
KRYZYS SPOŁECZNY (WARTOŚCI) I EKONOMICZNY
PROBLEMY DEMOGRAFICZNE, ŻYWNOŚCIOWE, EKOLOGICZNE,
SUROWCOWE I ENERGETYCZNE 29
30. Era Clausevitz’owska zatrzymała się
na piątym ringu Warden”a
Koniec ery nietykalnych
Asymetria
Możliwości cyber ataku terrorystycznego
w erze informacyjnej
33. Transformacja NATO
The architecture of the modern international
system rests on a foundation of free and fair access
to a vibrant global economy that requires stability
in the global commons (Sea, Space, and
Cyberspace in this Initiative).
Alfred Thayer Mahan was perhaps the first
strategist to coin the term, describing the world's
Transformation Framework oceans as "a great highway... a wide common" in
his classic 1890 work, „The Influence of Sea
Power Upon History”.
Ensuring relative stability throughout the global
Capable Future NATO Forces commons remains an Alliance concern.
NATO Defence Planning
NATO Defence Capability Management System
Achieving
Achieving Ability to Conduct
Decision
Coherent Multinational and
Superiority
Effects Joint Expeditionary Operations
Transformation Transformation
Transformation
Goal Goal
Goal
Effective
Engagement Information Superiority Projection of Forces
& Joint Manoeuvre &
NATO Network Synchronized
Enhanced CIMIC Enabled Concepts Multinational
and Joint Logistics
Transformation Concept Areas
Effects-based Approach to Operations
The global commons initiative is an ACT think tank topic
What?
34. Six Trends of Modern Ops
• Hard to soft objectives, setting conditions
• Amongst the people
• Timeless, unending
• Fight to preserve the force
• New uses for weapons and organisations of
industrial war
• Non-state, multinational groupings on “our”
side against non-state party or parties
34
36. Effects-Based Thinking
Strategic Operational Tactical
Objectives Effects Actions
Nat’l and Int’l D P
Objectives
EFFECTS
M
Country E
Team(s)
I
S
Objectives
I
Combatant Joint Task
Commander M I
Force
Theater
Objectives
Objectives
E
Commanders and staffs translate Staff and components analyze the Commander issues guidance
what they see, hear, and feel from mission using all tools available and intent to his staff and
national / international dialogue (Operational Net Assessment, components and the supporting
into solid, logical Campaign Collaborative/Virtual Information agencies to accomplish fused,
Objectives from the Regional Environment, etc.) to determine synchronized, and appropriate
Combatant Commander (RCC) what Effects they want to Actions on PMESII systems
perspective accomplish within the operational within the operational
environment to achieve theater environment to attain desired
and strategic objectives effects and achieve objectives
37. LINIE OPERACYJNE (planowanie EBAO)
Cele strategiczne
„Points of actions“ militarne
Polityczne -… Efekty
polityczne
Efekty
Militarne - … militarne
Ekonomiczne
Efekty
- …
ekonomiczne
Społeczne
………..
Infrastrukturalne
-…
………..
Informacjyjne -… ………..
Militarne Cywilne Mil/cywil
Slajd opracowano na podstawie prezentacji nt. ” Ewolucji operacji połączonych”- autor „ prof. M Wiatr
38. EBO – DZIAŁANIA SIECIOCENTRYCZNE
PRZEMIANY GEOPOLITYCZNE ROZWÓJ TECHNOLOGICZNY
Podejście Sieciocentryczność
systemowe WIĘCEJ
(DIME, PMESII) Wspólny obraz
Opcji sytuacji zorientowany
Interakcja na podział ról
międzyresortowa Elastyczności
EBP + EBE + EBA + KBD Synchronizacji Wspólnota informacyjna
Łańcuchy efektów Wiedzy Współpraca
EBO Działania sieciocentryczne
40. Zdolności Sieciocentryczne Sojuszu
NNEC studium opłacalności
Projektowane scenariusze:
scenariusze:
#1 - ‘Operacje podobne do afgańskiej
#2 – Operacje w rej. zurbanizowanym
Dane
NRF #3- Operacje amfibijne wejściowe:
wejściowe:
priorytetem Systemy
WYMAGANIA Planistyczne
Planistyczne
STANDARYZACJNE Czynnik ludzki
Informacja
Informacja Koncepcja
Koncepcja Systemu Łącz
Systemu
Interoperacyjności Technologie i Inf. NNEC
WYMAGANIA
STANDARYZACJNE
Dane wejściowe:
Plany narodowe trendy
Trendy komercyjne technologiczne
41. Obszary rozwijania NNEC
NNEC
Alliance Wide Perspective Bi-SC ‘Operational’
Transformational Objective Areas
(EE) Expeditionary
Operations,
(IL) Integrated
Logistics,
(EC) Enhanced
CIMIC,
(JM) Joint Maneuver,
(EE) Effective
Engagement and
(IS) covering the
Operational aspects
of Information
Superiority.
NII = ‘National NIIs’ + NATO NII
‘The Enabling
Network of Networks’
42. Ewolucja od CD OPP do EBAO dla (N)NEC
Commander Driven Operational Planning
Process
Mission
Mission
Analysis
Analysis
• Commanders focus planning
Intent &
Intent &
Guidance
Guidance • Commanders are involved Information
COA
COA throughout the planning process Political Military
Development
Development
• “For every 5 minutes the Vulnerabilities Infrastructure
COA
COA
Analysis
Analysis operational Commander spends in
current operations, he should Links Social
COA
COA
Comparison
Comparison spend 55 minutes with the Strengths
COA
COA planners” Key Nodes
Selection
Selection
Cdr’s estimate
Cdr’s estimate
Weaknesses
to Combatant
to Combatant
Plan // Order
Plan Order
Development
Economic
Commander
Commander Development
Relationships
Rehearsals
Rehearsals
SPACE
CYBER-SPACE
UNMANNED
SENSORS & STRIKE
PRECISION
STRIKE PRECISION STRIKE
INTEGRATED
INTEGRATED HUMINT AIR-GROUND
SOF-CONVENTIONAL ASYMMETRIC
IO/PSYOP SOF
SOF
Light
SOF
SOF WMD
Threat SYMMETRIC
Systems Heavy
Analysis
Allies UNMANNED
SYSTEMS
Nicht Zum Kernkrieg, As They Say Information Homeland
By Armed Liberal at Jan 4, 2007: 06:46 Environment
43. ASYMETRYCZNOŚĆ I SIECIOCENTRYCZNOŚĆ
W SPEKTRUM OPERACJI MILITARNYCH USA
The World and Territories Under the Responsibility of a
Combatant Command or Under a Command Structure
49. „Blurred Transition - Asymetric Threat“
2003
THREE BLOC OPERATIONS WARFIGHTING
MULTINATIONAL DIVISION CS
Humanitarian
Assistance
Warfighting
- Single Set of Forces
Peace Support Ops - Single ROE
City Map
Ongoing Anti-Terror Ops (COIN) POST-CONFLICT
50. "Experts are now saying
that what happened in
Egypt proves that
countries in the Middle
East can move towards
democracy without us
invading them.
Today, George Bush
said,
2011
'Oh, now you tell me!‘”
--Talk show host Jay Leno, as cited in
LLC News Bulletin; image
50
51. The End of Operation Iraqi Freedom and DoD’s Future in Iraq
President Barack Obama on 2010,
August 30, announced a formal end
to the U.S. combat mission in Iraq.
With roughly 50,000 Americans
remaining behind until next year, it
is certain that U.S. service personnel
have not seen the end of hostile
action. Now, however, the context
will be different—occurring in the
course of advising and assisting
Iraqi Security Forces, hunting down
dangerous extremists, or acting in
self-defense.
51 7/05
52. Should I Stay or Should I Go?
What the United States Can Leave Behind in Iraq
http://www.usatoday.com/video/index.htm?bctid=632028618001#/News/Five+Qu
estions+for+Condoleezza+Rice/42804638001/40264770001/632028618001
Michael Eisenstadt
September 30, 2010
Summary:
Iraq is plagued by political gridlock and an uptick in violence. To keep the country from
dangerous collapse, Washington may have to maintain a military presence in Iraq while
pushing leaders in Baghdad toward national reconciliation and political accountability.
Październik 2009
52 7/05
53. Amerykańskie wojska muszą opuścić Irak
Iracki premier Nuri al-Maliki oświadczył 30
sierpnia, że amerykańskie wojska muszą -
zgodnie z planem - opuścić Irak pod koniec 2011
roku. Podkreślił, że w kraju nie będzie żadnej
stałej bazy wojskowej USA.
Jak głosi wydany przez kancelarię premiera
komunikat, "umowa o wycofaniu amerykańskich sił
zostanie zrealizowana zgodnie z planem".
Zgodnie z obowiązującym obecnie harmonogramem,
liczące około 47 tys. żołnierzy siły USA mają wycofać
się z Iraku do końca roku. Pojawiają się jednak głosy,
że zbyt wczesne odwołanie amerykańskich wojsk
zdestabilizuje sytuację w regionie. Liczne zamachy w
Iraku stawiają pod znakiem zapytania zdolność sił
irackich do przejęcia odpowiedzialności za
bezpieczeństwo w kraju. PAP
53 7/05
54. Iraq - IED Incident Trends – Coalition Force (U)
Attack the Network – Defeat the Device – Train the Force
2003-2009
109.000 ofiar
Incident counts based on preliminary data for June 2009
54
57. Dyskusyjna jest logiczna poprawność pojęcia
Global War on Terrorism
„Wojna z terroryzmem”
Expeditionary Medal – skoro terroryzm to metoda
Those engaged in the GWOT should be aware of the culture,
customs, language and philosophy of the enemy to more
effectively counter ideology of the terrorists.
-- Gen Richard Myers, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
58. Forget
"GWOT„
!!!!!
War on Terror
Global War on Terror (GWOT)
Overseas Contingency Operations
(OCO)
OCO)
By Brian Beutler - March 26, 2009, 10:17AM
59. NATO XXI centry NATO’s Center of Gravity UNAMA
"the source of power
that provides moral
or physical strength,
freedom of action, or
will to act.” Thus,
seen as the
"source of strength".
G-8 EU IOs/NGOs
60. CENTCOM Main HQ at MacDill AFB, in Tampa, Florida USA
General John R. Allen
CENTCOM FHQ since 2002 at Camp As Sayliyah in Doha, Qatar
61. ZESPÓŁ PRZEDSTWAICIELA NATO
(ACO) DORADCY MINISTRA
OBRONY NARODOWEJ IRoA A.R.
WARDAKA
Zadanie: koordynacja
NARODOWEGO SYSTEMU
BEZPIECZEŃSTWA AFGANISTANU
2007
62. The Runaway General
Stanley McChrystal, Obama's
top commander in Afghanistan,
has seized control of the war by
never taking his eye off the real
enemy:
The wimps in the White House
On the Ground With Runaway General Stanley McChrystal
70. Amerykańska opinia publiczna o „Wojnie z terroryzmem”
By Rich Morin November 8, 2011
For Many Injured Veterans, A Lifetime of Consequences
One out of every ten veterans alive today was seriously injured at some point while serving in the military, and
three-quarters of those injuries occurred in combat. For many of these 2.2 million wounded warriors, the physical
and emotional consequences of their wounds have endured long after they left the military [.]
75. Reasumując
Przyczyny utrzymywania sie (pogłębiania) tendencji, zyskiwania przewagi
przez słabsze strony w konfliktach asymetrycznych należy upatrywać w :
W ustrojach społeczno - politycznych i formach sprawowania władzy stron konfliktów:
demokratycznie wybrane władze w państwach rozwiniętych vs. władze systemów autorytarnych
(plemiennych, szczepowych, dyktatury państw upadłych, przywództwa organizacji terrorystycznych itp.).
W dostępie słabszych aktorów do zaawansowanych technologii i łatwości pozyskiwania uzbrojenia,
w tym stwarzanie zagrożenia proliferacją BMR: zorganizowany światowy handel bronią (szczególnie
małokalibrową), minami, środkami pirotechnicznymi podnosi ryzyko i koszty państw rozwiniętych
angażowania się w konflikty w tzw. krajach rozwijających się.
W czynnikach kulturowych (cywilizacyjnych (Huntington), religijnych): w ideologicznych
przeciwieństwach, przywódcy walk narodowo – wyzwoleńczych i całe populacje są zdeterminowane
i pełne woli do poświęceń w osiąganiu celów.
W wyborze decydujących rozstrzygnięć (determinacja jako czynnik psychologiczny): poświęcenie i
determinacja słabszych aktorów względem interesów i pozycji silniejszych. Dla mocarstw zagrożenie
przetrwania i przeżycia nie wchodzi w grę, dlatego ich wola walki zawsze będzie niższa według
zasady, ze zawsze można się wycofać pod przykryciem dobrego PR-u.
W wyborze koncepcji strategicznych: niewłaściwie definiowane strategie –(różne) mocarstw w
odniesieniu do oceny potencjałów słabych aktorów może skutkować porażkami, co potwierdzają
dane z analiz zespołu prof. Catherine Gerard. Czynnikiem decydującym jest czas (Obecność koalicji
amerykańskiej - sojuszników NATO w Afganistanie – 10 lat). Brak rozstrzygnięcia faworyzuje
słabszych, jak słusznie zauważył dr H. Kissinger.