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ÜAS 2016, Istanbul, 14 October 2016
2
High
Performers
Project
Success
8 % 9 % ? %
62 % 64 % 64 %64 %
2012 2013 2014 2015
? %
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 The Standish Group’s CHAOS Report:
3 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 Most approaches focus on “fixing inputs,” such as PM training
and process maturity, and hope that results will follow.
 Traditional emphasis is on binary “success/failure” metrics, as
opposed to ROI-maximization metrics.
 What’s needed is an approach specifically designed to improve
the 4 key ROI-maximization drivers of project portfolio
performance:
◦ Project Selection: How to pick the highest-
impact projects, with “Effective ROI” estimates
◦ Portfolio Throughput: How to maximize
the number of project completions
◦ Portfolio Reliability: How to optimize the
project success rate across the portfolio
◦ ROI Engineering: How to engineer the maximum
ROI—for both individual projects and for the portfolio
as a whole—during execution.
Expose Hidden Capacity
Avoid Failures
Get More
“Juice for
the Squeeze”
4
Invest More
Intelligently
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
5 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Technique Origin(s) Primary Purpose
Project Staggering
Critical Chain Project
Management (CCPM)
• Expose Hidden Capacity
• Expose Resource
Bottlenecks
ACCLAIM Single-Tasking
Method™
Lean, Agile,
TOC, Psych,
• Expose Hidden Capacity
• Improve Project Reliability
Project Buffering CCPM, Agile, Others • Improve Project Reliability
Portfolio Buffer
Balancing
CCPM • Improve Portfolio Reliability
Buffer-type Flexibility
• Improve Portfolio Reliability
• “Best Tool for the Job”
Flexibility (Agile/Traditional)
 Any approach to pursuing highly productive work must be
technically sound, and must integrate well together…but
that’s only the beginning.
 No organization will ever achieve enduring performance
excellence unless it also adheres to two Guiding Principles:
6
◦ Communities of Trust—Does our
approach foster trust among all
stakeholder communities?
◦ Unity of Purpose—Does our approach
enhance the sense of shared purpose
as we perform our work?
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Technique1 Program/Project Staggering
7
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Three types of tasks, requiring
three different resources:
 A – Planning, Scoping,
Prioritizing
 B – Architecting, Developing,
Integrating, System Testing
 C – User Acceptance Testing
The sooner we start ….
Three simple projects
Seven weeks each
8 Copyright ©2016NOVACES
Delay Delay Delay
High resource utilization
Delay
9 Copyright ©2016NOVACES
10
P4
8
6
4
Simultaneous Projects
Staggered Projects
Copyright ©2016NOVACES
 Typically exposes 20-40% additional capacity
 Agile tenets are consistent with staggering, but staggering is
not an Agile requirement; the organization must apply the
necessary discipline and tools to implement staggering
 Executive stakeholders must be convinced that a project start
date weeks or months in the future will result in an earlier
finish.
 Staggering helps expose hidden resource bottlenecks,
identifying opportunities for resource balancing
 Individual efficiency must be subordinated to the goal of
maximizing throughput
11
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Technique 2
Task-flow maximization using the
ACCLAIM™ Single-Tasking Method
12 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Round # 1 Round # 2
13
TASK SWITCHING
14
Datapoints
First round
results with task
switching
Second round
results with
focus
Time to complete
Almost twice as fast!
30 60 90 120 150
2σ ~ 90% 2σ ~ 60%
180
15
 Theory of Constraints, Psychology
– Single-tasking is a highly effective way to minimize lead times for human-
centric tasks
– Maximizing flow across an end-to-end process (system) can only be done once
the system constraint is identified
 Lean/Kanban
− Visualizing the actual flow of work—especially for workflows that aren’t
inherently visual—is critical for team members to identify impediments and to
experiment with improvement ideas.
− Enabling the system to “pull” work, vs. having work assigned or “pushed,”
tends to improve flow while empowering teams.
− Minimizing batch sizes—ideally down to a batch size of one, or “single-piece
flow”—can generate impressive flow improvements
− In general, the less “work in process” (or WIP) in the system, the faster and
more efficient the system
 Agile/Scrum, Psychology
− The team knows how to be more productive than the sum of its members
− The team is much more motivated when working under a disciplined
framework designed to foster team autonomy.
 If the team can break tasks on the project plan into
fine-grained subtasks that take less than a week,
and ideally about a day…
 If the team can maintain a ready
supply of these fine-grained tasks
for all team members…
 If these fine-grained tasks are visible, and can be
pulled for execution by any team member, one at a
time, without concern for sequence…
 If the end-to-end bottleneck can be
identified, and the flow organized
to minimize end-to-end WIP…
16
Ease the
Flow
Feed the
Machine
Visual Mgmt +
Pull System +
Single-piece Flow
Focus on
“Resource B”
Then I have maximized flow, strengthened team autonomy,
aligned team behavior with portfolio-level objectives, and
achieved single-task execution, all at the same time.
Number of
Task Owners
8
Ensure that this
number…
6
…is always slightly
lower than this
number
Previous
productivity
level
Impediments; lapses
in single-tasking
Improved
single-task
discipline
Over
2X!
2
months
2015 average tasks in progress per developer:
2015 task completion per developer per week
13
1.5
2016 average tasks in progress per developer:
2016 average task completions
per developer per week
1.4
8.3
Technique 3 Buffering
21
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 In order to buffer against project uncertainty, the Triple
Constraint Rule says that we can hold fixed at most two
of the three standard project constraints:
$
22
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 A traditional “waterfall” project typically has a schedule buffer at the
end of the project
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Schedule Buffer
Project
Due
Date
23
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 Agile projects serve as a good example here—they typically have
“backlogs” of tasks that include lesser-priority software features that
users would like to have, but can live without.
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
“Must Have”
Features
“Nice-to-Have”
Features
Project
Due
Date
24
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 This is what I call the “Olympic Stadium”
type of project
◦ The due date is absolutely fixed, and the most
optimistic task-duration estimates already
consume the entire schedule
◦ The scope is almost absolutely fixed
◦ Budget is the only available buffer
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Project
Due
Date
25 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Technique 4
Portfolio Buffer
Balancing
26
Project A
Project B
Project C
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days10 Days 10 Days
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days10 Days 10 Days 10 Days
Project A
Project B
Today
Two identical tasks, only one person
(or team) with the required skill
Project Buffer
Project Buffer
27
A
B
28
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
A
B
29
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Technique 5 Buffer-type Flexibility
30
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
 Project managers tend to prefer a schedule view—such
as a Gantt chart—to depict a logical flow of execution
over a defined project duration
 Project managers intuitively know how
to translate between budget, scope, and
schedule
◦ For example, we might “buy schedule” by
increasing budget or sacrificing scope
 Why not do the same with budget, scope, and schedule
buffers?
31
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Schedule Buffer
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4Scope Buffer
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Project
Due Date
Budget Buffer
32
Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
Michael Hannan
Founder & Principal Consultant
FORTEZZA CONSULTING
(301) 520-0899
Mike@FortezzaConsulting.com
www.fortezzaconsulting.com
Bahadir Inozu, Ph.D.
Chairman and Co-Founder
NOVACES International Ltd.
+1 (504) 208-0610
binozu@novaces-int.com
www.novaces-int.com

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DISTRIBUTION FINAL UAS Inozu - Hannan 2016 (1)

  • 1. ÜAS 2016, Istanbul, 14 October 2016
  • 2. 2 High Performers Project Success 8 % 9 % ? % 62 % 64 % 64 %64 % 2012 2013 2014 2015 ? % Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 3.  The Standish Group’s CHAOS Report: 3 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 4.  Most approaches focus on “fixing inputs,” such as PM training and process maturity, and hope that results will follow.  Traditional emphasis is on binary “success/failure” metrics, as opposed to ROI-maximization metrics.  What’s needed is an approach specifically designed to improve the 4 key ROI-maximization drivers of project portfolio performance: ◦ Project Selection: How to pick the highest- impact projects, with “Effective ROI” estimates ◦ Portfolio Throughput: How to maximize the number of project completions ◦ Portfolio Reliability: How to optimize the project success rate across the portfolio ◦ ROI Engineering: How to engineer the maximum ROI—for both individual projects and for the portfolio as a whole—during execution. Expose Hidden Capacity Avoid Failures Get More “Juice for the Squeeze” 4 Invest More Intelligently Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 5. 5 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC Technique Origin(s) Primary Purpose Project Staggering Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) • Expose Hidden Capacity • Expose Resource Bottlenecks ACCLAIM Single-Tasking Method™ Lean, Agile, TOC, Psych, • Expose Hidden Capacity • Improve Project Reliability Project Buffering CCPM, Agile, Others • Improve Project Reliability Portfolio Buffer Balancing CCPM • Improve Portfolio Reliability Buffer-type Flexibility • Improve Portfolio Reliability • “Best Tool for the Job” Flexibility (Agile/Traditional)
  • 6.  Any approach to pursuing highly productive work must be technically sound, and must integrate well together…but that’s only the beginning.  No organization will ever achieve enduring performance excellence unless it also adheres to two Guiding Principles: 6 ◦ Communities of Trust—Does our approach foster trust among all stakeholder communities? ◦ Unity of Purpose—Does our approach enhance the sense of shared purpose as we perform our work? Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 8. Three types of tasks, requiring three different resources:  A – Planning, Scoping, Prioritizing  B – Architecting, Developing, Integrating, System Testing  C – User Acceptance Testing The sooner we start …. Three simple projects Seven weeks each 8 Copyright ©2016NOVACES
  • 9. Delay Delay Delay High resource utilization Delay 9 Copyright ©2016NOVACES
  • 11.  Typically exposes 20-40% additional capacity  Agile tenets are consistent with staggering, but staggering is not an Agile requirement; the organization must apply the necessary discipline and tools to implement staggering  Executive stakeholders must be convinced that a project start date weeks or months in the future will result in an earlier finish.  Staggering helps expose hidden resource bottlenecks, identifying opportunities for resource balancing  Individual efficiency must be subordinated to the goal of maximizing throughput 11 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 12. Technique 2 Task-flow maximization using the ACCLAIM™ Single-Tasking Method 12 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 13. Round # 1 Round # 2 13 TASK SWITCHING
  • 14. 14 Datapoints First round results with task switching Second round results with focus Time to complete Almost twice as fast! 30 60 90 120 150 2σ ~ 90% 2σ ~ 60% 180
  • 15. 15  Theory of Constraints, Psychology – Single-tasking is a highly effective way to minimize lead times for human- centric tasks – Maximizing flow across an end-to-end process (system) can only be done once the system constraint is identified  Lean/Kanban − Visualizing the actual flow of work—especially for workflows that aren’t inherently visual—is critical for team members to identify impediments and to experiment with improvement ideas. − Enabling the system to “pull” work, vs. having work assigned or “pushed,” tends to improve flow while empowering teams. − Minimizing batch sizes—ideally down to a batch size of one, or “single-piece flow”—can generate impressive flow improvements − In general, the less “work in process” (or WIP) in the system, the faster and more efficient the system  Agile/Scrum, Psychology − The team knows how to be more productive than the sum of its members − The team is much more motivated when working under a disciplined framework designed to foster team autonomy.
  • 16.  If the team can break tasks on the project plan into fine-grained subtasks that take less than a week, and ideally about a day…  If the team can maintain a ready supply of these fine-grained tasks for all team members…  If these fine-grained tasks are visible, and can be pulled for execution by any team member, one at a time, without concern for sequence…  If the end-to-end bottleneck can be identified, and the flow organized to minimize end-to-end WIP… 16 Ease the Flow Feed the Machine Visual Mgmt + Pull System + Single-piece Flow Focus on “Resource B” Then I have maximized flow, strengthened team autonomy, aligned team behavior with portfolio-level objectives, and achieved single-task execution, all at the same time.
  • 17. Number of Task Owners 8 Ensure that this number… 6 …is always slightly lower than this number
  • 19. 2015 average tasks in progress per developer: 2015 task completion per developer per week 13 1.5
  • 20. 2016 average tasks in progress per developer: 2016 average task completions per developer per week 1.4 8.3
  • 21. Technique 3 Buffering 21 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 22.  In order to buffer against project uncertainty, the Triple Constraint Rule says that we can hold fixed at most two of the three standard project constraints: $ 22 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 23.  A traditional “waterfall” project typically has a schedule buffer at the end of the project Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Schedule Buffer Project Due Date 23 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 24.  Agile projects serve as a good example here—they typically have “backlogs” of tasks that include lesser-priority software features that users would like to have, but can live without. Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4 “Must Have” Features “Nice-to-Have” Features Project Due Date 24 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 25.  This is what I call the “Olympic Stadium” type of project ◦ The due date is absolutely fixed, and the most optimistic task-duration estimates already consume the entire schedule ◦ The scope is almost absolutely fixed ◦ Budget is the only available buffer Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Project Due Date 25 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 26. Technique 4 Portfolio Buffer Balancing 26 Project A Project B Project C Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 27. 15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days10 Days 10 Days 15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days10 Days 10 Days 10 Days Project A Project B Today Two identical tasks, only one person (or team) with the required skill Project Buffer Project Buffer 27
  • 30. Technique 5 Buffer-type Flexibility 30 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 31.  Project managers tend to prefer a schedule view—such as a Gantt chart—to depict a logical flow of execution over a defined project duration  Project managers intuitively know how to translate between budget, scope, and schedule ◦ For example, we might “buy schedule” by increasing budget or sacrificing scope  Why not do the same with budget, scope, and schedule buffers? 31 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 32. Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Schedule Buffer Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Sprint 4Scope Buffer Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Project Due Date Budget Buffer 32 Copyright ©2016FortezzaConsulting,LLC
  • 33. Michael Hannan Founder & Principal Consultant FORTEZZA CONSULTING (301) 520-0899 Mike@FortezzaConsulting.com www.fortezzaconsulting.com Bahadir Inozu, Ph.D. Chairman and Co-Founder NOVACES International Ltd. +1 (504) 208-0610 binozu@novaces-int.com www.novaces-int.com