Dissertation CM - Climate Change and Argiculture in West Himalayas (low res)

School of Geographical and Earth Sciences
Undergraduate Dissertation
2016 - 2017
Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural
Sustainability in the West Himalayas

The University of Glasgow

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COVER SHEET FOR DISSERTATION
Declaration of Originality
Name: Cameron Mackay
Matriculation Number: 2074844m
Course Name: Geography Level 4H (BSc)
Title of Dissertation: Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural Sustainability
in the West Himalayas
Number of words: 9816
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Climate Change and Perceived Agricultural Sustainability in the West Himalayas
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Acknowledgements
For support given in research design and expedition planning, I would like to thank Jim Hansom who
gave valuable insights and advice to this project. Academic guidance was also given from Anja Byg,
Sally Daultry, Kirsty Fisher, Vladimiro Pellicardi, Chie Sakakibara and Olivia Taylor. Expedition
advice was also received from Shane Winser through the Royal Geographical Society (RGS) which
was much appreciated.
In the field area of Ladkah, I would like to thank the gatekeeper organisations: Ladakh Environmental
and Health Organisation (LEHO), Leh Nutrition Project (LNP), Ladakh Ecological Development Group
(LEDeG) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) India Ladakh Field Office. I would also like to thank
the individuals: Ajaz Abdu, Suryanarayanan Balasubramanian, Dr Mohammed Deen, Dorjey, Stanzin
Gya, Nazir and Chewang Norphel. Thanks also to the translators: Kunzes Dolma, Adiba Jahan and
Richen Tundup who gained me access to people within remote villages. Finally, I must extend my
appreciation to all research participants and residents of Ladakh who welcomed us into their homes and
demonstrated famous Ladakhi hospitality.
I must also note my appreciation for Abel McLinden who acted as a research assistant in Ladakh whose
enthusiasm and willingness to support the research allowed large objectives to be undertaken.
Lastly, I would like to thank my parents for their ongoing advice and support regarding overseas
research and travel.

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Abstract
A long-term trend of increasing climate change is the West Himalayas has caused regional
temperature increase and snowfall decrease. Whilst this has been shown through a wide
selection of scientific studies, there is a lack of research detailing the subsequent human
impacts. Through gathering data of traditional ecological knowledge from remote subsistence
communities in the study area of Leh Block in North India, the perceptions of local people
relating to the perceived sustainability of subsistence agriculture were examined using a mixed
methods approach of interviews, questionnaires and participant observation. Results show that
agriculture is believed to be endangered due to water scarcity, irrigation difficulties and
shortening of growing season due to climate change. Analysis also revealed that the factors of
altitude and glacial area within the watershed of each studied village significantly impacted on
vulnerability. Villages at lower altitudes on south facing slopes with little glacial area within
their watersheds were shown to be the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Because of these climatic changes, climate change can now be seen as a push factor influencing
migration away from agricultural areas. This study summarises the observed impacts of climate
change and agricultural sustainability in the West Himalayas and compares this to previous
research conducted in the Himalayas and globally relating to climate change and traditional
ecological knowledge.

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Contents
1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………......1
1.1 Rationale…………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2 Research Aims and Questions……………………………………………... 1
1.3 Project Outline……………………………………………………………... 2
2 Literature Review………………………………………………………………… 4
2.1 Ladakh Background……………………………………………………….. 4
2.1.1 Geography and Climate 4
2.1.2 Indigenous Agriculture 4
2.2 Evidence and Impacts of Climate Change in Ladakh……………………... 5
2.2.1 Temperature 5
2.2.2 Glacier Mass Balance 6
2.2.3 Snowfall Quantity 7
2.2.4 Rainfall Intensity 7
2.3 Human Response to Climate Change in Ladakh…………………………... 7
2.3.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge 7
2.3.2 Vulnerability and Sustainability 8
2.3.2 Climate Change Perception Studies 8
2.4 Niche for Research………………………………………………………… 9
3 Methodology……………………………………………………………………... 10
3.1 Study Area…………………………………………………………………. 10
3.2 Data Collection…………………………………………………………….. 10
3.2.1 Interviews 10
3.2.2 Participant Observation 13
3.2.3 Questionnaires 13
3.3 Data Processing……………………………………………………………..14
3.3.1 Qualitative Data Coding 14
3.3.2 Statistical Data Analysis 15
3.4 Ethics………………………………………………………………………..16

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4 Results……………………………………………………………………………...18
4.1 Interviews…………………………………………………………………...18
4.1.1 Observations and Impacts of Climate Change 18
4.1.2 Factors Affecting Village Vulnerability 20
4.1.3 Perceptions of Agricultural Sustainability 23
4.2 Questionnaires……………………………………………………………... 25
4.2.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture 25
4.2.2 Response to Observed Climate Change 26
4.3 Participant Observation……………………………………………………..27
4.3.1 Farming Practices Response to Environmental Change 27
4.3.2 Government and NGO Support for Sustainability 27
5 Discussion: TEK and Global Climate Change…………………………………..29
5.1 Ladakh Academic Knowledge……………………………………………...29
5.1.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge 29
5.1.2 Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change 30
5.1.3 Sustainability and Adaptability 31
5.2 Wider Implications………………………………………………………….32
5.2.1 Climate Change and Remote Subsistence Communities 32
5.2.2 Global Policy and Awareness 32
5.2.3 Climate Change Refugees 33
5.2.4 Integrated Management and Research Impact 34
6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………… 35
6.1 Research Question: Summary of Findings………………………………… 35
6.2 Limitations………………………………………………………………….36
6.3 Opportunities for Further Investigation and Dissemination……………….. 37
7 References………………………………………………………………………….38
8 Appendixes………………………………………………………………………... 42
Supplementary CD – All Transcripts and MPS recordings

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1 Introduction
1.1 Rationale
Climate change has caused environmental conditions to reach and exceed extremes never
before seen by mankind (Zalasiewicz et al., 2010). Due to a global mean surface temperature
rise of 0.85o
C between 1880 and 2012, there have been impacts on physical systems such as
precipitation, on biological systems such as terrestrial ecosystems and on human systems such
as food production (IPCC, 2014). The people to be most adversely affected by these changes
are those living in locations of high latitude and altitude, as well as those who rely solely on
cultivation of the physical landscape for food and livelihoods (Tariyal and Bartwal, 2014). In
some mountain regions such as the Himalayas, people are currently facing severe water
shortages due to the accelerated melting of glaciers, which is putting increasing pressure on
agricultural systems (Daultrey, 2011). However, there has been a disproportionate amount of
research conducted into the physical geographical phenomenon of climate change compared
to that detailing the responses of remote subsistence communities (RSCs), especially in
mountain areas. To help support these remote communities in adapting to climatic changes,
Salick and Byg (2007) discuss how a global response is needed, for which detailed accounts of
these communities’ perceptions and experiences are highly valued and will allow more
appropriate support to be administered. Also, through communicating such research findings,
particularly those detailing how climate change affects people, to policy makers and the public
in countries such as the UK, decisions to act in more globally aware and environmentally
sustainable ways can be influenced (Korte, 2016). Philo and Happer (2013) have shown that,
conducted effectively, communication of issues surrounding climate change can make
members of the public more alert, aware and more likely to act on the issue.
1.2 Research Aims and Questions
This project aims to study how sustainable local people perceive agricultural practices to be,
given current and future trends of increasing climate change, in the Ladakh Region of the Indian
Himalayas.
The issue of climate change is too wide-reaching and complex to draw overarching conclusions
from one project (Pittock, 2009). Therefore, to make credible claims within this small scale
study, conclusions will be drawn relating only to perceptions and responses from people within
the field area to determine how sustainable local people believe agriculture is within the

1. Introduction
2
increasingly instable climate of Block Leh. In order to gain as full an understanding as possible
of how climate change is impacting agriculture throughout Block Leh, a variety of different
villages was visited. This allowed several themes to be included in the data and ultimately
contributed to comparisons being made between different factors affecting villages and also a
more thorough representation of the issue of climate change in Block Leh.
The main research question was: How sustainable do local residents of Block Leh, Ladakh
believe agricultural practices to be in light of current and projected climate change? The
research objectives were as follows:
1. Identify the extent to which climate change is experienced in Block Leh;
2. Establish factors affecting the vulnerability of communities in Ladakh to climate
change;
3. Identify to what extent traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) relates to scientific
knowledge;
4. Establish how successful and sustainable operational mitigation strategies are;
5. Given predicted future temperature increase in Ladakh, establish how sustainable
farming practices are believed to be.
1.3 Project Outline
This thesis aims to outline the background literature and methodological approaches used
to design this research project as well as to present data obtained and to link this back to
literature.
Chapter 2, ‘Literature Review’, aims to establish the current understandings within
literature regarding the impact climate change has on the physical and human landscape of
the West Himalayas. A gap in research will also be suggested.
Chapter 3, ‘Methodology’, outlines the study area and reasons for choosing it as well as
each research technique, namely interviews, questionnaires and participant observation and
how data from each was processed.
Chapter 4, ‘Results and Interpretation’, presents data from each research technique,
triangulates these techniques and interprets the links between each theme that was
discovered as well as how they influence each other.

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Chapter 5, ‘Discussion’, links data from the results back to the literature to determine how
this study relates to previous work in Ladakh and work that details climate change
perceptions around the world. The wider implications of the data gathered will also be
considered.
Chapter 6, ‘Conclusion’, summarises all data gathered and its wider implications as well as
critiquing the project as a whole to outline what steps could be taken to improve it in future.
Ideas for future research, based on themes found in this study are also suggested.

2. Literature Review
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2 Literature Review
This chapter aims to present the actual climatic change trend in the West Himalayas through
review of previous scientific studies, show what is known of the perceived impacts of climate
change through human research and ultimately define the aspect of research that this study
aims to explore.
2.1 Ladakh Background
2.1.1 Geography and Climate
The region of Ladakh, India, lies in the northwest Himalayas with the Karakoram Range to the
west and the Greater Himalaya Range to the south. Formed during the Himalayan Orogeny
(Phartiyal, 2004), the Ladakh plateau is the highest area in the state of Jammu and Kashmir
and has altitudes averaging above 3000m with peaks as high as 7000m (Rizvi, 1999). Whilst
much of India receives high quantities of rainfall from yearly monsoons, Ladakh sits in an area
of rain shadow caused by its proximity to the Greater Himalaya Range (Negi, 1995) and
receives on average 100mm rainfall each year (Meena et al., 2015). The area is therefore known
as a ‘high altitude cold desert’ (Agarwal and Ahmed, 2006). Negi continues to discuss how the
area experiences long winters, with temperatures ranging from -35o
C to 0o
C allowing fairly
frequent snowfall and shorter summers, where temperatures reach up to 25o
C in the warmest
areas, allowing snow and ice to melt and facilitate crop cultivation. Autumn and spring are
short and show little distinctive change. This seasonal cycle can be seen in Figure 2.1.
2.1.2 Indigenous Agriculture
Although poor in natural resources, many villages in Ladakh are situated on the banks of rivers
and streams where water can be siphoned for irrigation and crop cultivation (Pellicardi et al.,
2014) as well as livestock husbandry (Rizvi, 1999). For this, people in the area rely heavily on
meltwater rivers that flow from glaciers as well as on the little precipitation the region receives,
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Figure 2.1 Yearly seasonal cycles of the cold desert region of Ladakh showing prolonged summer and
winter and short and undefined spring and autumn. Adapted from a written account of seasonal timings given
by Negi (1995).

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which falls mainly as snow (Meena et al., 2015). In spring, the warmer temperatures allow the
snow and ice to melt and supply the farms in the area with water for irrigation (Pellicardi et al.,
2014). Traditionally, irrigation was conducted using gravity-controlled mud canals and
terraced fields (Nüsser et al., 2011). Through these irrigation channels, water is carefully
rationed and shared between all the households in one village (Asboe, 1947) on a rotational
system where each household will receive water for an allotted time (Rizvi, 1999).
Traditionally, this has allowed the growth of crops such as barley, wheat, pulses and fruits
(Pellicardi et al., 2014). Farming in Ladakh, however, has always been a challenging operation
because of the arid climatic conditions as well as the small size and variability of the region’s
glaciers, on which local people depend for water (Schmidt and Nüsser, 2012). Because farming
has thrived despite these adverse conditions, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (2009)
state that Ladakh should be recognised as a ‘Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System’.
2.2 Evidence and Impacts of Climate Instability in Ladakh
Remote subsistence communities (RSCs) are hit hardest by anthropogenic changes in climate
due to their strong reliance on the natural landscape for food and livelihood, especially in
remote mountain and desert communities where they are argued to be on the ‘front-line’ of the
issue because of the pressures on water supplies (Masserli and Ives, 1997; Salick and Byg,
2007). Previous studies of climate instability in high mountain areas focus on the physical
factors of temperature, glacier mass balance, snowfall quantity and rainfall intensity (Byg and
Salick, 2009; Ingold et al., 2010; McDowell et al., 2014) and these have been documented, in
varying detail, in relation to Ladakh.
2.2.1 Temperature
In the small amount of studies that have been conducted into temporal temperature variation in
the Western Himalayas, a clear trend of rising yearly temperature been established (Meena et
al., 2015). Studies of temperature in the north-western Himalayas from 1901 indicate that there
has been a significant increase in air temperature since the late 1960s and that, between 1901
and 2001, the temperature in the region increased by 1.6o
C (Bhutiyani et al., 2007). Shekhar et
al. (2010) state that the seasonal annual mean temperature increased by ~2o
C between 1984
and 2008, which is backed up at a lower extreme in Leh by Angmo and Mishra (2009). The
rising temperature trend can be seen in Figure 2.2. These unprecedented rates of annual
warming can be seen across the Himalayas and are expected to continue in future and have
knock on effects on other processes in the area (Dash and Hunt, 2007; Xu et al., 2009).

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2.2.2 Glacier Mass Balance
Glaciers and ice caps will be the first physical processes to respond to a warming climate (Nesje
and Dahl, 2000). This rising temperature means that glaciers no longer receive enough snow
in winter to counteract the summer melting, leading to a negative mass balance and excessive
ablation (Haeberli, 2011). This is the case in the Indian Himalayas, where glaciers are currently
very small in area and are continuing to recede (Schmidt and Nüsser, 2012). Schmidt and
Nüsser continue to state that, shortly following the significant increase in air temperature in the
late 1960s noted by Bhutiyani et al. (2007), between 1969 and 2010, Ladakh’s glaciated area
decreased by 14%. Despite the fact that warming could cause an initial increase in discharge
in melt water river, this decreasing trend in ice mass is much more significant and will
ultimately result in a much lower meltwater discharge (Thayyen and Gergan, 2010).
Figure 2.2 West Himalaya Temperature Trend: Annual mean winter minimum temperature data extracted from
previous research into temperature change in the West Himalaya. A shows data from Bhutiyani et al. (2007) for Leh
District between 1903 – 1999 and has R2
= 0.01. B shows data from Shekhar et al. (2010) for West Himalaya region
between 1984 – 2007 and has R2
= 0.21. C shows data from Angmo and Mishra (2009) for Leh Airport, which lies at
3500m and is higher than the mean of other studies’ weather stations, between 1973 – 2008 and has R2
= 0.07. Using
these trend lines, data is projected until 2020.
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Temperature(degreescelsius)
Year
Shekhar et al. (2010)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Bhutiyani et al. (2007)
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Angmo and Mishra (2009)
A
B C

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2.2.3 Snowfall Quantity
The warming air temperature will also influence precipitation, particularly snowfall
(Richardson et al., 2011). In Ladakh this is particularly evident as, in 1993, the amount of snow
cover in spring began to declining and also started melting at a faster rate (Kripalani et al.,
2003). Shekhar et al. (2010) supports this argument and states that between 1988 and 2008
there was an average reduction of 267cm of yearly snowfall.
2.2.4 Rainfall Intensity
The regularity of intense precipitation events has dramatically increased in Ladakh since the
1990s and many flash flood, or cloudburst, events have occurred (Hobley et al., 2010). As these
cloudbursts occur, localised intensive rainfall occurs and increases overland flow and river
discharge (Tariyal and Bartwal, 2014). Geologically, many young and easily erodible rocks
can be found in the area which adds high levels of silt to the rivers and causes debris flows
(Debraj, 2013). As most Ladakhi villages are built around river channels in the centre of
valleys, these floods have caused high levels of damage to infrastructure (Thayyen at al., 2013).
2.3 Human Response to Climate Instability in Ladakh
In order to gain a full understanding of the impacts of climate instability in any given area,
human perceptions and experiences must be considered alongside scientific, statistically
proven studies (Alexander et al., 2011). There is a growing field of environmental research
known as Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) that has represented indigenous
perceptions of climate instability, and there has also been local documentation of the impact of
the changing Himalayan climate on Ladakhi people.
2.3.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge
The concept of TEK has been present in peer-reviewed literature for many decades but has
only recently been used to encompass climate change (Harrington, 2015). Berkes (1993)
defines TEK as: ‘experience acquired over thousands of years of direct human contact with the
environment’ based on qualitative, observational and, in some cases, spiritual knowledge. This
type of study has been shown to complement physical and highly quantitative studies through
merging traditional knowledge of livelihoods, farming and climate (Freeman, 1992) with
meteorological and remote sensing data relating to climatic and cryospheric change (Alexander
et al., 2011). Until now, TEK research relating to climate instability has focused primarily on
Arctic regions and North America (Harrington, 2015; Sakakibara, 2008; Pearce et al., 2015),
which has made valuable contributions to local governments and global academic

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understandings (Alexander et al. 2011). However, there is also a great opportunity to develop
TEK further in mountain regions such as the Himalayas where there is not currently a large
amount of work done on it (Salick and Byg, 2007). Although there is a growing body of work
documenting the impacts of climate change in Ladakh, TEK has yet to be brought into
discussion there and, as the region is particularly vulnerable (Rizvi, 1999), this could be of
great benefit.
2.3.2 Vulnerability and Sustainability
Literature also shows key themes in how these social-ecological interactions can influence the
vulnerability and resilience of different communities through provisions from the natural
environment allowing ecosystems and people to sustain life (Folke, 2006). When there is a
capacity for adaptation and an ability to utilise resources within a community to mitigate
against external issues such as climate change, they can be seen to have higher levels of
resilience (Robinson and Carson, 2016). However, when this is not possible villages can be
seen to be vulnerable (Shukla, 2016).
The definition for sustainability in this study will be taken from Wackernagel and Rees (1962)
who define sustainability as the ability: “to live equitably within the means of nature”.
Therefore, the threshold of sustainability will be the point where a community can no longer
practice subsistence farming with only natural resources and is forced to have human
intervention.
2.3.3 Climate Change Perception Studies
Many studies have been done into the impact that climate change is having on people in the
Himalayas and, in Ladakh, these detail in particular issues surrounding water shortages. The
main findings include that the decrease in meltwater for irrigation is so severe in some villages
that people are not able to get sufficient water and have had to migrate to other villages (Angmo
and Mishra, 2009). The rising temperature has also brought about an increase in pests and
insects noted in fields and on crops. In general, it is believed that local people are facing more
challenges now than before in cultivating and producing crops in the Leh District (Pellicardi et
al., 2014). However, the causes of this are not limited to climate instability. Nüsser et al. (2011)
describe how the hydrological processes and decreasing cultivated area are also heavily
influenced by social change. Whilst there is a growing knowledge base of the physical
landscape in Ladakh and how it being affected by climate change, few studies relating climate
change directly to local people’s perceptions have been done in the area.

9
To combat these water shortages, mitigation strategies have been set up in the Ladakh area, a
frequent example of which being artificial glaciers. The Leh Nutrition Project (2016) describes
how, based on traditional methods, modern applications of artificial glaciers channel meltwater
streams to a series of dams where it freezes between November and December. These dams
are staggered at increasing altitudes so, as the temperature gradually increases in Spring, they
melt one by one to provide a continuous supply of water for agriculture (Daultrey and Gergan,
2011). This process can be seen in Figure 2.3.
Although there has been little TEK and perception based research conducted in Ladakh, this
has been widely conducted in the Arctic (Sakakibara, 2008; 2011) and in the Tibet Himalayas
(Byg and Salick, 2009). These authors provide a useful framework to be followed in Ladakh.
2.4 Niche for this research
The current body of knowledge regarding climate change in the West Himalayas comprises of
physical studies showing trends of climatic change and human studies showing limited
accounts of impacts of these changes on RSCs. There is great opportunity for more perception-
based and environmental geography research to be undertaken in the West Himalayas, to
augment the current studies of human response to climate change which could inform
adaptation strategies locally and worldwide. TEK has yet to be widely used in Ladakh so a
study in which it was used as a key part of the methodology could offer a new perspective and
indicate if further TEK research would be of benefit.
The methodology used to investigate this niche in research is outlined in the following chapter.
Altitude
Ice
Ice
Main Channel
Side Channel
Water Gates
Dam Walls Gate (closed) Gate (open)
Irrigation Water
Figure 2.3 Artificial Glacier Structure: Diagram showing the structure of an artificial glacier (A), the formation of
ice through dams in winter (B) and the periodic melting in spring to provide meltwater for irrigation (C). Adapted from
LNP (2016).
A B C

3. Methodology
3 Methodology
This chapter aims to outline the methodological approaches taken in this study. Firstly, the
field site will be presented and reasons for choosing it discussed. Data collection and data
analysis methods will then be shown for each of the three research techniques: interviews,
questionnaires and participant observation.
3.1 Study Area
The Leh Block area of the Indus Valley in the Ladakh Region of North India was chosen as
the study area for this project. This area provided access to many agricultural settlements as
well as the largest city in the region, Leh, which acts as a central hub for many of the
agricultural settlements in Ladakh (Rizvi, 1999). Each village that was studied was situated
within its own individual watershed, so clear analysis of respective responses for each village
could be conducted. The three types of watershed were north facing slope, south facing slope
and floodplain, as can be seen in Table 3.1. Eight villages were visited to collect data, as can
be seen in Figure 3.1. The sampling strategy was to visit 50% of of the villages in each type of
watershed. There were ten south facing slope villages in Leh Block, so five were visited, two
north facing slope villages so one was visited and four floodplain villages so two were visited.
3.2 Data Collection
As suggested by Yeager and Steiger (2013), qualitative methods used alongside quantitative
studies can connect human and social phenomena to spatial data. To achieve this, interviews,
participant observation and questionnaires were used. This mixed methods approach allowed
triangulation of the research question from different fieldwork techniques to maximise
understanding of the issues (Phillips and Johns, 2012), as can be seen in Figure 3.2. Data
gathering took place in agricultural areas, social space and in government offices.
3.2.1 Interviews
A total of 47 interviews were conducted with farmers, Indian government officials and local
agriculture specialists in Block Leh. This technique was used to give an illustrative account of
the impacts of climate change on agriculture as well as to create analysable data relating to
perceptions and experiences. The interview schedule can be seen in Appendix 1. A list of
completed interviews can be seen in Appendix 2. A sample of a completed, transcribed and
coded interview can be seen in Appendix 3 and all transcripts are available on a Supplementary
10

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BOX 4.1 Study Area
The Leh Block area of the Indus Valley can be seen in Figure 3.1, along with each village where research was
conducted. Detail of each village is given in Table 3.1 which shows the amount of each type of fieldwork conducted.
Table 3.1 Village site information for village in which research was conducted.
Large City Small Village Major River 5km
Phyang
Umla
Phey
Leh
Nang
Shey
Sabu
Stok
Indus River
B
N
A
South facing slope
Umla Phyang Leh Saboo
Altitude 3880m 3530m 3500m 3550m
Watershed Seasonal snowfall 1.95km2
glaciated
area, seasonal snowfall
1.30km2
glaciated
0.28km2
glaciated
Natural water
availability
1 stream, seasonal
snow watershed
Meltwater stream Meltwater stream,
spring
Meltwater stream
Interviews 4 2 19 5
Questionnaires 0 0 10 0
Participant Obs. 1 0 2 0

South facing slope North Facing Slope Floodplain
Nang Stok Phey Shey
Altitude 3630m 3600m 3190m 3240m
Watershed Seasonal snowfall 3.33km2
glaciated area,
seasonal snowfall
Indus river Indus River
Natural water
availability
Meltwater stream Meltwater river Spring Indus River
Interviews 5 5 2 5
Questionnaires 0 0 0 0
Participant Obs. 1 1 1 1

Figure 3.1: Maps showing settlements in which research was conducted. A shows the country of India with Ladakh region
Highlighted. B shows precise Indus River Basin Field area. Adapted from Patterson (2016) and Google (2016).

3. Methodology
12
CD. These provided illustrative qualitative data relating to people’s experiences, feelings and
opinions (Valentine, 2005) of climate change and agricultural sustainability in Ladakh. An
overview can be seen in Table 3.2. The ‘structured open-ended interview’ technique was used
throughout which, as defined by Kitchin and Tate (2000), consists of a standardised and
comparable series of open-ended questions in which the participant is free to construct their
own narrative. Standardisation was also achieved through reading the same research
information sheet to participants before each interview (Appendix 6). Kitchin and Tate
continue to suggest that the highly structured nature of these interviews could constrain the
responses of participants. To mitigate this issue, participants were offered time to discuss any
issues they felt relevant after direct questioning was complete. Interviews lasted on average 17
minutes. In most cases a recorder was used to capture sound but on two occasions participants
Farmers
GovernmentLocal Experts
Climate change and
perceived
sustainability of
agriculture
Interviews Questionnaires
Participant
Observation
Figure 3.2 Research Design and Triangulation: Diagram showing three data collection types alongside the three main
demographics of people targeted through this study.

Interview Category No. Conducted Information Gained
Village Interviews 38 Comparable TEK data
Agriculture workers’ perspective
Local Experts 5 Long term local academic knowledge
Technical perspective of mitigation
strategies
Indian Government Officials 4 Insight to governance of region
Government workers’ perspective
Table 3.2 Interview Categories: Table showing each of the three types of interview conducted and what data they produced.

13
were not comfortable to be recorded so notes were taken during the interview. As shown in
Figure 3.3 and 3.4, questions were posed by the researcher and responses were interpreted with
support from a translator.
Participants were chosen through illustrative sampling which would give insight to the
viewpoints of people with agricultural awareness as opposed to the entire population (Phillips
and Johns, 2012). As stated by Valentine (2005), gatekeepers in a study area will grant access
to interviewees. Through the Ladakh Environment and Health Organisation (LEHO) and Leh
Nutrition Project (LNP), the first village visits were set up. After this, the research snowballed
as interviewees provided contacts for further interviews. For village interviews, on site
recruitment was used through approaching areas where it was hoped individuals with insights
to climate and agriculture could be found. Through this technique, three focus group interviews
were also set up where village gatherings were approached. Village interviews were conducted
in research participants’ houses, gardens and social areas in each village. Household
interviews, such as this, allowed the participant to feel more comfortable and for the
interviewer to gain further insights to the cultures and livelihoods being investigated (Salick
and Byg, 2009; Phillips and Johns, 2012).
Through the interviews, the research question was triangulated by comparing the perceptions
in each village with differing themes as well as through comparing responses from
agriculturalists, government workers and mitigation strategy engineers.
BOX 3.1 Interview Translation
For interviews with individual (Figure 3.3) and group respondents (Figure 3.4), an interpreter was used to
firstly gain the trust of interviewees before translating questions to the Ladakhi language and interpreting the
responses. Photos by McLinden (2016).
Figure 3.3 Individual interview in Nang village Figure 3.4 Group interview in Umla village

3. Methodology
14
3.2.2 Participant Observation
Participant observation was also conducted at 7 sites through the ‘complete observer’ method
which, as stated by Webb et al. (1966), involved conducting observation of farming practices
and indicators within them of the impacts of, and adaptations to, climatic change over the last
century. This technique was used to triangulate other techniques with direct observations of the
physical landscape in Leh Block. Using this method to consider the ethnographic background
of a space can allow links between local cultures and long term changes in society and
environment to be established (Hoggart et al., 2002). In other areas, through this technique,
Sakakibara (2008; 2011) observed the cultural practices of the local people in the Arctic to
make comparisons with recent climatic changes and this approach aimed to be emulated in this
study. Each participant observation can be seen in Table 3.3.
3.2.3 Questionnaires
In the field area and online through social media, 81 questionnaires were completed. 10 were
conducted through short conversations with local people in Leh and 71 were distributed online

Village Location Information Gained
Umla Agricultural land Village-level management of farming,
Greenhouse mitigation strategy.
Leh Urban agriculture
neighborhood
Farming processes in a high population density area with high demand
for water,
Regulation of water for each farm.
Government
office
Internal workings of agricultural governance and the attitudes of those
in charge,
Challenges affecting government provisions.
Nang Artificial glacier Engineering and structure of artificial glaciers,
Factors affecting the success of artificial glaciers,
Villager’s engagement with maintenance of artificial glaciers.
Stok Agricultural land Irrigation on north facing slope,
Perceptions of mitigation strategies where there is little irrigation
difficulty.
Phey Agricultural land Workings of rotational Ladakhi irrigation system,
Ability of a farm on Indus Floodplain to irrigate,
Lifestyle of subsistence household.
Shey Irrigation area Irrigation on Indus Floodplain.
Table 3.3 Participant Observations: Table showing each participant observation that was carried out.

15
through the Facebook group ‘Ladakh in the Media’ comprising mainly of Ladakhi people. This
technique was used to give a broader view of perceptions of climate change in Ladakh and to
target people who had knowledge of the study area but were not reachable in person. The design
of the questioning took the form of an uncontrolled variable study which, as described by
Oppenheim (1992), incorporates several variables which are not controlled for research
purposes. Parfitt (2005) suggests that this uncontrolled variable technique could mislead the
conclusions made. However, this study aimed to mitigate against this risk through using
questionnaires as only one of three methods to contribute to triangulation of the research
question. Data was gained, through 5 answer-selection questions, on gender, age, occupation,
perception of climatic change and response to these changes. Sampling was confined to
participants who had experience of the Block Leh area. It is possible for all individuals in a
population to be aware of environmental change (Shi et al., 2015) so there was no need to
further specify.
3.3 Data Processing
3.3.1 Qualitative Data Coding
Following the completion of interview fieldwork, all interviews were transcribed from MP3
recordings using word-for-word transcription. These were then used to draw out main themes
raised amongst the interviewees through creating a coding scheme focusing on perceptions of
climate instability and sustainability of agriculture, as can be seen in Table 3.4. As
recommended by Kitchin and Tate (2000), each transcript was then coded (Appendix 1) and
results were plotted on a matrix of responses against each coding theme (Appendix 2). This
process was emulated for the questionnaire data under the coded themes of employment,
observed climatic changes and responses. Techniques of coding and creating a matrix were
used to allow the creation of a large numerical database which allowed a statistical analysis of
the research findings to be conducted.
3.3.2 Statistical Data Analysis
Once two independent matrix tables were created, statistical analysis could be conducted. Chi-
squared tests were used to determine if there was any correlation between occurrences of each
coding theme in interviews and questionnaires (Rogerson, 2006). This showed which perceived
themes were causal of other themes occurring. This was done through testing the null
hypothesis that there was no connection between each possible pair of coding themes. A
significance level of α = 0.05 and 1 degree of freedom were used for both data sets and any p

3. Methodology
16
values of <0.05 were deemed to be statistically significant and the null hypothesis of no
connection would be rejected.
Regression analysis was also conducted between coding themes and physical landscape data.
This allowed the significance of trends between datasets to be investigation. This showed
which themes were impacted by increasing environmental factors such as altitude and
watershed.
This statistical analysis allowed clearer and more credible themes and relationships within the
data collected to be presented in the results of this study and also facilitated the discovery of
data trends that were not observed through direct fieldwork.
Climate Instability Observations Increase in temperature A11
Decrease in snowfall A12
Increase in extreme precipitation events
and instability
A13
Glacier lake outburst flood A14
Receding and vanishing of glaciers A15
Water scarcity A16
Impacts Decrease in crop yields A21
Increase in pests A22
Increase in crop variety grown A23
Soil erosion A24
Unable to irrigate fields/left baron A25
Decrease in crop cultivation time A26
Shift from dependence on subsistence
agriculture to subsidies
A27
Increasing struggle to make profit/sustain
livelihood
A28
Infrastructure damage and death/injury A29
Mitigations Artificial glacier A31
Water reservoir A32
Other A33
Sustainability of Agriculture Perceptions Farming is endangered in future B11
Farming practices can be
sustainable/adapt
B12
Impacts expected in future B13
Farming practices affected and changing B14
Influencing factors Inability to farm without water supply B21
Mitigations don’t fully compensate B22
Mitigations can support sustainable
future
B23
Difficulty gaining correctly skilled labor
for mitigation projects
B24
Receive government and NGO support B25
Figure 3.4 Interview Coding Themes: Table showing each interview coding theme and its respective code, as can be seen in the
coded transcript example in Appendix 3.

17
3.4 Ethics
As this project involved operating in a remote and culturally diverse environment, discussing
issues that are adversely affecting the lives of local people, ethical considerations had to be
made through gaining the trust of Ladakhi people.
Firstly, gaining consent from interview participants was not straightforward. While some
participants were happy to read an information sheet (Appendix 6) and sign a consent form
(Appendix 7), many were either illiterate or were not accustomed to writing their name to
provide a signature. In India, it is often customary to provide a thumb print as means of
signature so this process was adopted during the research to make participants feel more
comfortable. Through this, and through reading the information sheet, consent was gained from
every interviewee. Participants were also allowed to withdraw at any time and granted
anonymity which was necessary as some interview responses were highly critical of
government officials.
This methodology was effectively put into practice and produced the results which can be seen
in the following chapter.

4. Results and Interpretation
18
This chapter aims to present the data from interviews, questionnaires and participant
observation, to triangulate themes between these methodological approaches and to interpret
the possible explanations for each theme discovered.
4.1 Interviews
4.1.1 Observations and Impacts of Climate Change
This section aims to answer the first research objective through identifying what effects of
climate change are experienced in Block Leh. Interview respondents all discussed factors of
increasing climatic change. One of the highest occurring themes was water scarcity, with 71%
of respondents noting an increasing difficulty each year in accessing adequate amounts of water
for farming. A positive relationship was shown between observed decrease in snowfall and
0
20
40
60
80
100
Temperature
Increase
Crop Variety
Increase
Water Scarcity Irrigation
Difficulty
InterviewRespondants(village%)
Experienced Phenomenon
Crop Variety and Water Scarcity
Floodplain South Facing Slope North Facing Slope
Figure 4.1 Temperature Paradox: Paradoxical Relationships between temperature, water scarcity and increased crop
variety. A and B show regression analysis of percent of responses detailing observed temperature increase against
increased crop variety and water scarcity respectively. Trend lines are plotted to show R2
values which are, for A: R2
=
0.79 and B: R2
= 0.20. Data from Phey village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.
C shows a series of percent of responses experienced phenomenon which are factors in the issue of this paradox plotted
for floodplain, south facing and north facing villages.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
'Increase in crop variety' responses (%)
'Temperature increase' responses (vilvillagel
Temperature and Crop Variety
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
'WaterScarcity'responses(%)
'Temperature increase' responses (village %)
Temperature and Water Scarcity
A B
C

19
water scarcity as well as between glacier loss and water scarcity amongst all participants. This
could be explained in part by the fact that villagers source water for agricultural irrigation from
snow and ice meltwater streams and, as these decrease in seasonal discharge, much less water
reaches the fields that are undergoing cultivation.
Temperature increase has also contributed to glacier loss and snowfall decrease in the West
Himalayas, and in Ladakh it is also shown to have a potentially positive impact. Perceived
temperature increase has a positive relationship with increased crop variety which has allowed
both a greater quantity of traditional crops to be grown such as apples and apricots as well as
new crops such as wheat. However, there was a paradox related to this effects as, although
temperature increase was shown to account for 79% of increased crop variety responses, it was
also shown to account for 20% of water scarcity responses, as can be seen in Figure 4.1, which
makes cultivating any kind of crop significantly more challenging. Because of the widespread
and severe nature of water scarcity and irrigation difficulty, only villages situated on the Indus
River floodplain, where irrigation could be sourced directly from the Indus River, reported
successful yields from these new crops. This process was particularly worrying for Ladakhi
residents, as summarised in the statement:
“… temperature is totally rising which gives us advantages to sow these vegetables in
varieties, but due to shortage of water, we are not able to … give any good agriculture
output.”
(Interview 40, Nang)
BOX 4.1 Cloudbursts and Water Scarcity
Long periods of inadequate water supplies causing water scarcity and short intensive periods of surplus water
through cloudbursts can both have detrimental impacts on farming. Figure 4.2 shows how cloudbursts and
resultant flash floods can cover agricultural land with sediment, making it unusable. Figure 4.3 gives an
example of an irrigation channel which is no longer in use as there is too little water coming from the glacier in
summer to feed it.
Figure 4.2 Flash flood damage in Nang village Figure 4.3 Dry channel in Phey village

20
Interviewees also noted significant increases in the instability of rainfall. Known locally as
‘cloudbursts’, extreme precipitation events causing flash floods have grown in frequency over
the last ten years (Theyyen, 2013). Analysis showed a significant relationship between these
cloudburst events and an inability to irrigate fields. A possible cause of this could be related to
infrastructural damage caused by flash floods and how they have damaged irrigation channels
and covered fields with several inches of rock and sediment, as is evident in Figure 4.2.
Interviewees expressed just how detrimental this was for crop yields:
“…everything wash away, the houses are filled with sand, soils and all and many lands
become infertile, they lost their fertility … [the fields are] filled with debris, and it takes long
time to get back the same land.”
4.1.2 Factors Affecting Village Vulnerability
This section aims to answer the second research objective through establishing what factors
affect villages’ vulnerability. Through comparing the percentage responses to each coding
theme of people in each of the eight villages alongside data available relating to the physical
landscape, it was clear that altitude and glacial area in each village’s unique watershed had a
significant impact on interview responses relating to village vulnerability.
Firstly, it was shown that glacial area accounted for 56% of the perceived snowfall decrease in
each village (Figure 4.4). South facing villages such as Umla and Nang, which rely mainly on
snowfall for meltwater, noted the highest percentage occurrence of the decrease in snowfall
theme at 50 and 100% respectively. However, in Stok village, which lies within a north facing
watershed containing the highest glacial area in this study of 3.33km2
, only 20% of
interviewees noted a decrease in snowfall. Similarly, glacial area accounted for 62% of
perceived irrigation difficulty where Umla and Nang had the highest responses of 75 and 100%
respectively and in Stok, no interviewees noted difficulty in irrigation. It can be suggested from
these results that villages with less glacial area available to produce melt water within a
catchment have heightened vulnerability to the effects of snowfall decrease and ultimately have
a higher risk of experiencing irrigation difficulties. This is particularly evident on south facing
slopes which receive increased sunlight.
Another significant factor influencing vulnerability of each village is altitude. Villages at
higher altitude showed greater percentage of responses relating to cloudbursts.

21
Figure 4.4 Glaciated Area Vulnerability: Relationships between glaciated area, snowfall decrease and irrigation
difficulty. A shows plotted snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty responses, as well as average glaciated area, for
north and south facing slopes. B shows regressions of both snowfall decrease and irrigation difficulty against glaciated
area. Trend lines are plotted to show R2
values which are, for snowfall decrease and glaciated area: R2
= 0.56 and for
irrigation difficulty and glaciated area: R2
= 0.62. Data from Sabu village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly
and did not fit the trend.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Interviewthemeresponses(village%)
Glaciated Area (km2)
Glaciated Area Vulnerability Trends
Snowfall Decrease Theme Irrigation Difficulty Theme
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
South Facing Slopes North Facing Slopes
GlaciatedArea(km2)
Interviewthemeresponses(village%)
Village Type
Glacial AreaVulnerability Factors
Snowfall Decrease Irrigation Difficulty Average Glaciated Area
A
B

22
Figure 4.5 Altitude Vulnerability: Relationships between altitude, temperature increase, glacier loss and pest attacks.
A shows graphs of interview responses in each village relating to temperature, glacier loss and pest attacks. Altitude is
plotted in red. B shows regressions of temperature increase, glacier loss, pest attacks and cloudbursts against village
altitude. Projected trend lines are plotted to show R2
values which are, for temperature increase and altitude: R2
= 0.38,
for glacier loss and altitude: R2
= 0.40, for pest attacks and altitude: R2
= 0.32 and for cloudbursts and altitude: R2
=
0.51. Data from Shey village interviews was removed as it was an anomaly and did not fit the trend.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000
Interviewresponses(village%)
Altitude (m)
Altitude Vulnerability Trends
Temperature Increase Glacier Loss Pest Attacks Cloudbursts
B
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Phey Shey Lower
Leh
Phyang Stok Nang Saboo Upper
Leh
Umla
VillageAltitude(m)
InterviewResponses(village%)
Altitude Vulnerability Factors
Temperature Increase Glacier Loss Pest Attacks Altitude
A

23
Responses suggested that higher altitude and more remote villages such as Umla, which is the
highest village in the study area and lies at 3914m, use more traditional methods of construction
and irrigation so may be more susceptible to damage in times of flash flood. Lower altitude
agricultural areas may be more vulnerable to other factors of climate change. Temperature,
glacier loss and pest attacks on crops are all shown to increase in the lower altitudes of the
study area, as can be seen in Figure 4.5. The village of Shey which lies at 3240m on the Indus
floodplain exhibited 80% response for all temperature increase, glacier decrease and pest attack
amongst interviewees, as opposed to Umla which exhibited 25% response for both temperature
increase and pest attacks and 50% response for snowfall decrease. So it is clear that areas at
lower altitudes closer to 3000m around the Indus floodplain have greater vulnerability to issues
related to temperature increase whilst those at higher altitudes are more susceptible to extreme
precipitation events.
4.1.3 Perceptions of Agricultural Sustainability
This section aims to answer the fourth and fifth research objectives through determining the
perceived sustainability of agriculture and to what extent mitigation strategies can support this.
Of all the interview participants, many believed that farming practices in Ladakh were being
severely affected by climatic change and that there are many challenges associated with gaining
adequate crop yields in future. However, there are mitigation projects and government support
in place and these heavily influence the perceived sustainability of agriculture in Leh Block as
a whole.
Artificial glaciers were widely used throughout the study area, particularly in south facing
settlements where there are no longer natural glaciers to provide sustainable melt, as can be
seen in Figure 4.6 and 4.7. For the snowfall-reliant south facing settlements of Umla and Nang,
these proved to be very successful and residents suggested that more would enhance their
situation. Limitations surrounding artificial glaciers elsewhere outlined that, with increasing
temperatures, they might not provide water at the right time. This opinion is expressed by a
respondent:
“Because of this temperature rising, artificial glacier will melt very easily in a fast manner
which will come before the time and maybe it will not succeed.”
(Interview 36, Stok)

24
Gaining adequate skilled labour to maintain the artificial glaciers has also proven to be a
challenge, such as in the village of Saboo where a previous project has fallen beyond repair.
The government also provide support to farmers through supplying potato seeds and chemical
fertilisers. Interviewees reported high success of these schemes in irrigation-rich, warmer, low
altitude villages. However, concerns were reported at higher altitudes relating to the fact that
there is not enough water available to irrigate potatoes and that chemical fertilisers are
decreasing the soils’ long term fertility for those who can use them. Despite government
support, many respondents believed that the only way for farming in the area to continue amidst
rising temperatures is for artificial glacier methods to be sustained:
“…if artificial glacier and the ponds, if that thing works, it’s perfectly fine. But if it’s not, life
of agriculture is going to be difficult.”
(Interview 7, Umla)
Overall, 67% of all interviewees believed farming practices to be endangered in the long term,
while 33% believed farming could be sustainable. As shown in Figure 4.8, decreasing snowfall
has led to water scarcity and, where artificial glaciers are not effective, a decrease in crop
cultivation time. This has caused difficulties in irrigating crops which has ultimately lead to a
decrease in crop yields. The only significant relationship to the view that farming can be
BOX 4.2 Artificial Glaciers
Frozen dams, known locally as ‘artificial glaciers’ were one of the most commonly used mitigation strategies in Leh Block.
Particularly effective in the village of Nang, they are positioned in shallow v-shaped valleys adjacent to the main stream
valley (Figure 4.6) and water was channelled into them via aqueducts constructed from soil (Figure 4.7). There were many
advantages and disadvantages to this scheme which can be seen in Table 4.2.
Figure 4.6 Artificial glacier dams in Nang village Figure 4.7 Artificial glacier river aqueduct
Advantages of Artificial Glaciers Disadvantages of Artificial Glaciers
Allows adequate growing season
Enables villages to farm after complete loss of glacier
Recharges ground water for springs
Allows growth of fodder on irrigation channel banks
Inadequate skilled labour to perform maintenance
Have fallen into disrepair on some villages
Easily damaged by flash floods
Rely on decreasing snowfall to be successful
Table 4.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Glaciers

25
sustainable was an increase in temperature. This is possibly a result which reflects the paradox
of rising temperatures increasing the variety of crops which can be produced, yet irrigation
being too inadequate to support their production.
4.2 Questionnaires
4.2.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
Questionnaire responses detailed themes relating to the first research objective. Results
confirmed that climatic changes were being felt by the majority of the sample with 67% of
respondents noting an increase in temperature. It was shown that people who worked in the
agriculture industry responded in greater numbers to these factors of climate change, as is
shown in Figure 4.9, with 100% noting all cloudbursts, snowfall decrease and glacier loss. As
these three factors were shown in interview analysis to all contribute to irrigation difficulties,
questionnaire results confirm that there is a large risk of water scarcity within the study area.
This viewpoint was backed up by a respondent who also references issues with mitigation
strategies:
“Water scarcity is the biggest problem. Traditionally water was sourced from the snowfall
fed glaciers. Nowadays snowfall is less and rainfall is more, yet there is no significant shift
towards rainwater harvesting.”
(Questionnaire Respondent)
Farming is
endangered
Decrease in
snowfall
(p = 0.038)
Water scarcity
(p = 0.003)
Decrease in crop
yields
(p = 0.021)
Inability to irrigate
(p = 0.002)
Decrease in crop
cultivation time
(p = 0.020)
Farming can be
sustainable
Increase in
temperature
(p = 0.018)
Figure 4.8 Factors Affecting Perceived Sustainability: Significant factors affecting A: perception that farming is
endangered and B: perception that farming is sustainable. X2
p values are shown alongside each factor which were
calculated to one degree of freedom.
A B

26
4.2.2 Response to observed climate change
In order to address the question of agricultural sustainability, the current responses to climatic
change described amongst Leh Block residents were investigated. The main responses noted
were a change in occupation and the use of mitigation strategies. An increase in rainfall and
loss of glaciers were shown to have a relationship with occupation changes. This mirrors
interview data which suggests that, due to a loss of glaciers and resultant meltwater decrease,
agriculture is no longer possible and other forms of employment are sought. Questionnaires
also showed a relationship between temperature increase and receiving support from the
government with the use of mitigation strategies. As an increase in temperature was shown to
contribute to irrigation difficulties through interviews, here it is shown that this is a likely factor
in villages setting up mitigations strategies such as artificial glaciers. A full list of significant
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Cloudbursts Rainfall Increase Temperature Increase Snowfall Decrease Glacier Loss
QuestionnaireRespondants(%)
Observed Phenomenon
Agriculture Climate Impact
All Respondants Agricultural Respondants
Figure 4.9 Adverse Agricultural Impact: Graph showing questionnaire respondents’ observations of climatic
phenomenon. Percentage for all respondents are shown alongside agricultural responses.
Climate Change Observations Responses to Observed Climatic Change
Theme Significantly Related Theme Theme Significantly Related Theme
Increase in rainfall Flash floods/cloudbursts (p = 0.001) Change occupation Increase in rainfall (p = 0.031)
Increase in temperature (p = 0.024) Loss of glaciers (p = 0.011)
Decrease in snowfall (p = 0.041) Use mitigation strategies Increase in temperature (p = 0.026)
Government support (p = 0.024)Loss of glaciers (p = 0.012)
Loss of glaciers Flash floods/cloudbursts (p = 0.003)
Increase in temperature (p = 0.026)
Decrease in snowfall (p = 0.002)
Table 4.3 Significant factors affecting variables of climate change observations as well as responses to observed climate
change. X2
results shown as p values.

27
factors affecting observations and responses can be seen in Table 4.3. It also suggests that
government support is an important factor in establishing such projects.
4.3 Participant Observation
4.3.1 Farming practices response to environmental change
Here it is hoped to address the first and second research objectives. Observations of agricultural
sites showed varying levels of irrigation availability throughout the field area. Villages such as
Phey which are situated on the Indus Flood Plain have access to spring water. This is shared
between each household through rotational irrigation methods and no serious irrigation
shortages were observed. However, all stream water in the area was either used for irrigation
or stored in ponds for later use meaning that very little was un-utilised. Even slight decreases
in water availability in Phey in future could restrict the amount of land used for agriculture. A
decrease in available water is already evident as farmers pointed out one stream in Phey that
had been used in the past but had been dry for the past two seasons suggesting that this could
happen more in future, as can be seen in Figure 4.3. Conversely high altitude and south facing
villages such as Umla are currently facing severe difficulties in sourcing water for irrigation.
It was found that Ladakhi farmers will begin irrigation each year close to the 21st
June which
is when glaciers begin to melt. In 2016 residents of Umla had a village meeting on the 22nd
July where it was decided to harvest their crops early because they had run out of water. This
decision had both an adverse impact on their own families because this short optimum growing
season allowed very little growth, and also on the small scale trading they can do with their
crops as the yields were expected to be too low to generate profit.
4.3.2 Government and Non Government Organisations (NGO) support for sustainability
It is clear that in Ladakh, any possible solutions that can make farming sustainable in future
are conditional on support from the government and local NGOs. This comes in the form of
mitigation strategies as well as through supplements and chemicals to aid farming. Through
considering this, the fourth and fifth research objectives can be addressed.
Through working with farmers, it became evident that, in some areas, there was distrust of the
government and there appeared to be no belief that they would provide any kind of constructive
support. Whilst the government had set up a large scale irrigation canal, it lay several
kilometres to the south east of the field area so was not noted by any respondents. One small
scale government project in the field area was a pumping of river water from the Indus to
nearby farms and this was perceived as very supportive to the local Phey community. There

28
was a very high regard for NGOs such as LEHO and the LNP amongst remote villages such as
Umla where villagers reported significant increases in irrigation water available due to
mitigation projects set up by these NGOs. It appeared that government departments and NGOs
have all done varying levels of work to set up projects that could increase the sustainability of
agricultural practices. However, there is very little integration between these departments and
organisations meaning that the data regarding villages’ needs and engineering processes is not
shared externally. While the NGOs appeared to take high levels of responsibility for the
impacts of climate change, the government officials seemed to see it as being too large an issue
to consider as a regional problem and did not take overall responsibility. Overall, the main
factors supporting a view that farming can be sustainable in future related to successful
implementation of mitigation projects such as artificial glaciers and water reservoirs.
The results presented in this chapter have many links with wider literature and can offer much
content for discussion which will be undertaken in the following chapter.


29
5 Discussion: TEK and Global Climate Change
This chapter aims to firstly link this study’s findings of TEK to scientific knowledge for
Ladakh. Following this, findings will be compared to literature detailing both climate change
in Ladakh and as a global phenomenon.
5.1 Ladakh Academic Knowledge
5.1.1 Traditional Ecological Knowledge
This section aims to answer the third research objective relating to the links between TEK and
scientific knowledge. TEK in Leh Block clearly mirrored scientific data on temperature
increase. Respondents noted significant warming in their lifetime and, when elders of the
communities were younger, temperatures were much cooler. They stated:
“temperature is rising day by day”,
“winter time is not as cold as it used to be in the past”.
(Interview 4, Leh)
This same change can be seen in the data and projection from Shekhar et al. (2010) and
Bhutiyani et al. (2007) which summarises several data sets to suggest that temperatures in the
beginning of the twentieth century were over 2o
C cooler and began to warm after ~ 1980. This
trend is also shown by a respondent whose observations support Shekhar’s et al. temporal trend
of a 267cm/year decrease in snowfall over the turn of the century:
“… the temperature is increased and like ten, fifteen years ago, they used to see, like, really
high snowfall, like inches, they couldn’t walk. So now, it’s been like ten to fifteen years, they
never saw snowfall like that.”
(Interview 11, Sabu)
Data relating to glacial mass balance was also regularly discussed throughout the investigation.
Schmidt and Nüsser’s (2010) study showed over a 14% decrease in glaciated area over the last
fifty years and respondents were in strong agreement with this trend as they stated that:
“the glaciers … used to be very high, [now] they are getting very low because they are
melting year by year”,
(Interview 16, Shey)

5. Discussion: TEK and Global Climate Change
30
“… [the glaciers are] decreasing at rapid speed”.
(Interview 12, Sabu)
However, little further detail was given by this study regarding particular glacial areas or
distances of recession. Due to the limited data available beyond Schmidt and Nüsser’s study,
perspectives of residents who have lived in Leh Block since birth and are very familiar with
the landscape’s response to temperature change could help estimate future glacier loss to
projected trend of temperature increase. One such resident, aged seventy, responded stating:
“rise in temperature will affect this glacier and it will melt quickly and, after … two decades,
the glacier will be lost.”
(Interview 36, Stok)
With regards to rainfall, TEK within this study provided data regarding location and economic
impacts of cloudbursts but little reliable information regarding intensity and duration.
5.1.2 Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
This investigation backs up Angmo and Mishra’s (2009) work, suggesting that water scarcity
is causing irrigation difficulties. However, they suggest that within Leh District, some villages
reported an increase in water availability which was not found in this investigation of Block
Leh as all respondents noted a decrease in stream water. It was also stated that the maximum
altitude at which apples can grow has now moved to higher altitudes of 3600m, which was
confirmed in this study where no apple trees were found at higher altitudes. It was found that
many more crops including apricots could also follow this trend. Meena et al. (2015) detail that
for the Leh District, the annual growing period from 2000 – 2013 was between April and
September. This study found that this timescale was not representative of communities lying
on south facing slopes at altitudes above 3500m where their optimal growing season in 2016
was as short as two months between June and July. It is clear that these results differ
considerably and further supports the view of Meena et al. that a crop-weather model for the
Leh region would offer great benefit if developed.
Nüsser et al. (2011), in their study of agricultural land use change in the Leh area of the Indus
basin, present a 19% decrease in irrigated field areas in Stok village between 1969 and 2006.
Whilst they coherently tie this change to socio-economic factors such as shifts in employment
availability and loss of strength of agricultural industry, their results are heavily based around


31
irrigation difficulties. As this study has shown a significant link between climate change, water
scarcity and agricultural sustainability, it is possible that climate change could be considered
another significant factor in this land use change between 1969 and 2006.
On consideration of sustainability of agriculture in the region and reliance of farms on the
success of mitigation projects such as artificial glaciers, Daultrey and Gergan (2011) provide
an insight through suggesting success of these strategies is influenced by leadership, trust and
community size. In Leh Block, many villages such as Umla and Nang that were small enough
to learn and plan quickly were able to implement these strategies but larger communities that
are not so reliant on agriculture may not find such easy success. Whilst these factors come
together in Ladakh to create successful mitigation schemes, it is evident that more than these
factors contribute to the sustainability of agriculture. As noted by respondents in this study,
even if all villages created functioning artificial glaciers, warming temperatures might inhibit
their success. Therefore, this mitigation strategy alone cannot guarantee sustainable farming in
future and more investigation into agricultural sustainability in Ladakh would be valued by the
local farming community.
5.1.3 Sustainability and Adaptability
Through considering Wackernagel and Rees’ (1962) definition of sustainability as an ability
“to live equitably within the means of nature”, it can be considered how significant the belief
of the majority of respondents that farming is endangered is. As soon as any village within the
Leh Block area turned from being able to cultivate crops with natural resources alone to
needing human-made mitigation projects to do so, farming no longer existed within the means
of nature. Many respondents, especially in villages like Nang and Umla where there are no
glaciers anymore, believe that adaptations and mitigation projects might not work in coming
years as snowmelt will not provide adequate stream water. RSCs are relying more and more
on government and NGO support in Ladakh, and the natural landscape as a whole is no longer
widely supportive of agriculture. Because of this, it is clear that in these locations, farming is
not sustainable according to Wackernagel and Rees’ definition. If agricultural practices are
continued in future, they may only be sustainable, from an environmental perspective, when
supported by human intervention such as providing and maintaining enhanced designs of
artificial glaciers and further adaptations to the changing physical environment.

32
5.2 Wider Implications
Taking the concepts explored within this research further, many connections can be made with
awareness and policy throughout the world. While local awareness and responses were detailed
in Chapter 4, ‘Results’, many emerging points can be considered at a global level.
5.2.1 Climate Change and Remote Subsistence Communities
On comparing results of this study and previous work in Ladakh with similar research into the
impact of climate change on remote subsistence communities throughout the Himalayas and
the world, it can be seen that there are many common themes as well as disparities between
different countries. Through comparison with villages in Tibet, it can be seen that the trend of
a decrease in observed temperature increase and increasing rainfall with higher altitudes is
evident throughout the Himalayas (Byg and Salick, 2009). However, results contradict Byg
and Salick’s noted stream discharge and glacier increase with altitude. This could have possible
links between the Indus River catchment and the mixture of north and south facing slope
settlements in this study area. Through this it could be argued that altitude and watershed, as
discussed in this study, could have greater influences on the agricultural sustainability of a
village than geographical and political boundaries.
5.2.2 Global Policy and Awareness
There are many large scale publications that detail the impacts of climate change on agriculture
and related processes in mountain areas by organisations such as the Intergovernmental Panel
of Climate Change (IPCC), the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and
the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL). Many similarities and anomalies
can be seen when Ladakhi results are compared to the global trend. Findings relating to
observed impacts, such as accentuated temperature increase at lower altitudes and water
scarcity, are noted by the IPCC (Porter et al., 2014), SDC (Nau, 2009; Viviroli and Messerli,
2009) and CISL (Cameron, 2014). However, whilst these publications detail how there can be
positive impacts of temperature increase in some areas through increase in crop variety and
negative impacts in other areas through water scarcity, it could be added that both of these can
be felt in the same areas through the water scarcity paradox which requires a sensitive response.
There is therefore clear need for further discussion regarding sustainability of agriculture
within these publications. It is proposed that the implementation of mitigation strategies will
reduce the risks of climate change to agriculture by Cameron (2014) and Porter et al. (2014),
however it is rarely mentioned how these mitigation strategies themselves are being affected


33
by climate change. For Ladakh, the future of agriculture relies mainly on mitigation strategies
and many developments are needed as there are flaws with the current systems. Therefore, for
Ladakh to be fully represented by these globally focused publications, more consideration
could be given to the sustainability of natural resource-reliant mitigation schemes.
5.2.3 Climate Change Refugees
There is further issue discussed within global policy literature which could be applied to
Ladakh. De Shalit (2011) argues that, due to impacts of climate change, people may suffer
environmental displacement and be forced to move to urban areas of a country or travel
internationally and become climate change refugees. This study has shown that climate change
has become one of many clear push-factors influencing migration away from RSCs in the West
Himalaya region. This could drive large numbers of people to the region’s capital of Leh or
away from Ladakh altogether, to large population centres such as New Delhi which are already
experiencing serious pressures of overpopulation and poverty and are not prepared for high
levels of migration to areas within the city. With Leh District, in which the study area of Leh
Block is situated, having agricultural labourers and cultivators making up 30% of its workforce
totalling 22,514 people (Directorate of Census Operations – Jammu and Kashmir, 2011), this
could have large consequences in terms of population influx for cities such as New Delhi.
This could also have global consequences in terms of international migration. Lister (2014)
suggests that, as ‘refugees’ are defined by the 1951 Refugee Convention as people forced to
find refuge in another country due to “external aggression, foreign domination, or events
seriously disrupting public order” (Rankin, 2005), those displaced due to environmental
changes may not be considered refugees in global policy. However, as 66% of respondents in
this study believed farming to endangered, it is possible that people in West Himalaya
agricultural communities could face becoming climate change refugees in future. As discussed
by Caney (2005) and Moore (2008), it is essential to take global responsibility for these issues
and to set up infrastructures that can support those who have been adversely affected by the
impacts of climate change. This supports the argument made by Lister (2014) that those
moving due to the effects of climate change should be viewed as ‘refugees’ and offered the
same international support as those who currently fit the 1951 Refugee Convention definition.

34
5.2.4 Integrated Management and Research Impact
To implement the factors present in global policy awareness and to mitigate the issue of climate
change refugees on a local level, clear communication is essential between all government
departments and NGOs involved. Salick and Byg (2007) describe how this global response
needs to be correctly informed to allow the most appropriate support to be delivered. Yet, this
study found that, with funding coming from both international donors such as Save the
Children (LNP, 2016) and from the Indian Government (LEDeG, 2016) to different projects,
there has been insufficient collaborative thinking and an overall lack of communication in the
study area. Through establishing more common ground between governments and NGOs that
serve RSCs, more information may be able to be shared detailing community vulnerability and
factors that affect the success of mitigation projects. This would allow responses to the negative
impacts climate change to be standardised throughout a given region.
Research conducted in remote locations overseas has a huge potential to inform the responses
of governments and NGOs although it is often held only within academia and never seen by
decision makers in the regions in which it was conducted. As discussed by Winser (2004), it is
of great importance to work with the communities in which research has been undertaken to
disseminate results and implement recommendations. In terms of the impact of climate change
on RSCs, Winser’s approach could allow a greater understanding of timescales and areas of
heightened vulnerability to be fed into integrated management schemes. Overall, dissemination
of research relating to climate change within a project’s study area, particularly that of
interdisciplinary research, could allow the research to have a much more valuable impact and
help contribute to mitigating against the negative effects of climate change such as those that
have been presented in this study.

35
6 Conclusion
6.1 Research Question: Summary of Findings
This study aimed to investigate how sustainable local residents of Block Leh, Ladakh believe
agricultural practices to be in light of current and projected climate change. Results show that
people in the study area believe farming to be significantly impacted by the effects of climate
change and that overall, it is endangered. The research objectives were answered as follows:
• 1. Identify the extent to which climate change is experienced in Block Leh: The
observed impacts of climate change in the study area were an increase in
temperature, leading to a decrease in snowfall and glacier loss. This caused water
scarcity and difficulties in irrigating crops which were the main statistically
significant reasons people believed farming to be endangered.
• 2. Establish factors affecting the vulnerability of communities in Ladakh to
climate change:
o Altitude: High altitude villages (3900m) were more vulnerable to flash
floods and villages and low altitude villages (3200m) were more vulnerable
to temperature increase, impacts of glacier loss and pest attacks.
o Watershed: Low vulnerability was reported on the Indus Valley floodplain,
where plentiful irrigation is sourced from the river, and on north facing
slopes, where there are high glacial areas. Highest levels of vulnerability
were shown in villages on south facing slopes where glacial area was much
smaller.
• 3. Identify to what extent traditional ecological knowledge relates to scientific
knowledge: Trends produced in scientific literature showing timescales of
temperature increase, snowfall decrease, glacier loss and rainfall instability were
confirmed by TEK of respondents. It was also shown that TEK added new
perspectives to the study of climate change not noted in scientific investigations.
• 4. Establish how successful and sustainable operational mitigation strategies are:
Artificial glaciers were successful when situated high enough to freeze in winter
and when receiving adequate adequate water supply in autumn. In some areas these
were not sustainable due to lack of skilled labour, where temperatures were too high
to allow freeing and where there was flood damage. NGOs are relied on to
implement these.

6. Conclusion
36
• 5. Given predicted future temperature increase in Ladakh, establish how
sustainable farming practices are believed to be: Farming is believed to be
endangered due to snowfall decrease, water scarcity, crop yield decrease, inability
to irrigate and decrease in crop cultivation time. The only factor to influence a belief
that farming is sustainable, by allowing further crops to be introduced, was
temperature increase. As scientific literature suggests an increase in these factors in
future, it is uncertain if mitigation strategies will be enough to sustain agriculture in
Ladakh.
6.2 Limitations
The data collection of this project could have been improved in many ways. It is outlined here
what steps could be taken in future to ensure better data collection:
• Translators: Several translators were used, meaning that different levels of
interpretation were given leading to interview data being less reliably consistent. This
could be improved by working with one translator for the duration of the project.
Higher levels of fluency in Ladakhi of the researcher would ensure higher accuracy
and consistency of data collection.
• Access: Due to relying on public transport to gain access, there was an uneven amount
of interviews conducted in each village and watershed category which rendered the
resulting data less reliably representative. This could be improved by planning each
village visit in advance through considering comparisons that aimed to be made
between different village categories and staying in each village, in accommodation or
tent, until an interview target has been reached.
• Lack of standardisation: Marginal standardisation between interviews,
questionnaires and participant observations caused difficulty in triangulating between
each technique. Highly standardised interview schedules proved to be highly effective
in statistical analysis and comparison in this study so better data could be gained if this
approach was extended to encompass each other data gathering technique as well.
• Duration of fieldwork: During the 4-week expedition, many leads and contacts could
not be utilised and there was little time to reflect on data collected and inform next
steps for data gathering. This meant that potential avenues for research may have been
overlooked. This could be improved by completing a research methodology by early
January to give more opportunity to gain funding that would allow longer in the field

37
and the ability to conduct research for the entirety of the summer crop cultivation
season.
6.3 Opportunities for Further Investigation and Dissemination
Through exploring this niche of perception-based research in Ladakh, focusing on TEK and
the interactions between human and physical landscapes, it is clear that further study of these
processes could enhance global understandings of the immediacy and severity of climate
change to RSCs and offer valuable material for public outreach. Possible avenues for future
investigation are outlined below:
• TEK in mountain regions: Further studies could be conducted that draw on TEK from
RSCs in mountain areas and that analyse this data alongside scientific knowledge. This
could create a greater understanding of the challenges facing people in these areas and
offer suggestions of the most deserving projects of global investment that could
mitigate the effects of climate change.
• Snowline and temperature projections: As it has been shown by Viviroli and Messerli
(2009), a 1o
C rise in global temperature causes snowlines to rise by 150m. Localised
studies of this phenomenon in areas like Ladakh could allow projections to be made to
estimate the time remaining in which agriculture will be possible in each watershed.
This would enable governments to set up appropriate infrastructures for the resultant
rural-urban migrations that could occur.
• Local outreach: During this fieldwork it was discovered that, despite much research
being conducted in Ladakh before, the local governments and NGOs were not able to
access final analysis of the data collected. There would be great value in adding local
dissemination phases within study areas of future projects to allow researchers to work
with government departments and NGOs to act upon their findings.
• Global outreach: As stated by Philo and Happer (2013), communicated effectively,
climate change outreach can change the opinions of members of the public and
government to make small steps towards mitigating against global climate change.
Research within the niche explored through this project has potential to make large
positive impacts if communicated in this way.

References
38
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