The document discusses tree mortality in New York City and provides recommendations to ensure tree longevity. It analyzes data from tree censuses in 2005 and 2015 to match trees over time and determine which features best predict a tree's 10-year survival. Using machine learning methods, it finds that a tree's location within New York City is the strongest predictor of long-term survival, and that survival likelihoods vary depending on tree species and neighborhood.

1. Niki Athanasiadou

2. Tree mortality in NYC
GOAL:
Provide planting recommendations that
ensure tree longevity
Tree locations
2015 census
2005 census

3. Matching the trees to their future selves
What is the right distance, and how confidently am I finding the trees?
The problem
Closest tree is “far”
Tree clinical trials
: 2005 tree
: same species
: diff. species
2015
30
TP
TP
TN
FP
TP : True posi=ve
TN : True nega=ve
FP : False posi=ve

4. AUC = 0.72
Longitude La=tude Size Honey
locust
London
planetree
The loca<on of the tree within New York is the biggest predictor of its 10-year survival
Random Forests for Long-living Trees
Top 5 features

5. Different trees for different neighborhoods
Likelihood of survival
Neighborhood cluster ID
Tree species
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%

6. About me
Waiting time (minutes)
The G Train Experiment
Science Advocacy
Molecular Biology PhD