Defense Intelligence Brief_160511-03

5/26/2016 GPS-AG, Inc. (Copyright protected) 1

In-Country survey and Sino-scholar
assessments by:
Global Performance Strategies-AG, Inc.
and,
CRC Research Consultancy
Organizational and Educational Research
Dr. Kirk Marshall Clayton
Executive Director
Patrick D. Huff
CEO, Director of Research Programs and Operations
Mark Tavera
Presentation Coordination and Facilitator

Presentation Outline
 Topic
 Focus
 Player’s pure strategies
 Predictive(s)
 Inquiry
 Study parameters
 Background SOQ
 Research purpose
 Relevance
 About the presenter
 Research purpose
 Approach
 Presentation design
 Limitations
 Implementation
 Presentation
 Directed inquiries
 Potential takeaways
 Design, theory &
methods
 Findings
 Conclusions
 Terms & definitions
 Suggested readings
 Q & A, Survey
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Defense Intelligence Brief
 Topic - China Impact (2012-2025)
 Focus
○ Predict China’s direction and future impact
○ National/Global Interests
 Internal
 External
○ Environmental factors
 Influencers
 Drivers

 Planning
 Reforms
 Implementation
 Near-term
 Short-term
 Long-term
 Player’s Pure Strategies

○ Predictive
 Environmental Factors
 Influencers
 Drivers
 Direction
 Probable outcomes
 Implications
○ Inquiry
 Relevancy
 Contributors to -
- Organization
- ROI
- Actionable intelligence
- Critical knowledge

○ Empirical process
 Design and evaluation
 Theory and methodology
 Instruments and techniques
 Implementation and re-evaluation
○ Research limitations
○ Data
○ Algorithms
○ Interpretatives
○ Findings and analysis
○ Timely modifications
○ Adjustments –
 Performance needs
 Study parameters

 Background – Statement of Qualifications
○ Research purpose
- Investigators
- Collaborators
- Peer reviewers
- Subject matter experts (SMEs)
- Contributions
- Academic
- Scientific research
- Unique perspectives
- (non-western bias)
- Meet or exceed audience
expectations
- Agency requirements

 Relevance
○ Group/agency/audience
- Data
- Evidence
- Discoveries
- Predictive(s)
- Probable outcomes
- Significance
- Power shifts
- Future direction
- Impact(s)

 Background
○ About the presenter…
 Mr. Huff is a senior level international behavioral
scientist, educator, architect, and program assistant
director recently retired with service to:
 The U. S. Army Corps of Engineers;
 The Army Acquisitions Corps;
 The Army Material Command; and,
 Tasked as a representative to the Assistant Secretary to
the Army Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Office
(ASAALT) Deputy Commander under the United States
Department of Defense; with,
 Over 30 years of enlisted and officer service; and,
 Extensive civil service as a senior-level agency
executive.
Return to Outline

 About the presenter…
 After 9-11 he was re-called from retirement under the
“special and critical skills needed by the defense
department” for return to service with the US Army,
upon his 2nd retirement, Mr. Huff
 Applied and was accepted as an annuitant for civil-
military acquisition programs, returning ultimately to
service in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 Distinguished service
- Tasked to the Assistant Secretary to the Army Acquisition,
Logistics and Technology Office (ASAALT) Deputy Cmdr.
- Army Contingency “Contracting on the Battlefield” program
initiative
- Recalled from retirement by special order due to the critical
needs of the U.S. Army
- Attached to Northern U.S. Cmd., Multi-National Force-
Afghanistan
- Tasked to ISAF-Special Ops, Khyber Pass Ops. by General
Petraeus
- Attached to Southern U.S. Cmd., Multi-National Force-
Afghanistan
- Tasked to Theater Chief of Staff (A-FOR) – Specified
force requirements in support of Presidential Executive
Order

 Upon completion of his service, he applied and was
accepted into the Pepperdine University Educational
Doctorate of Leadership Program (EDOL) pursuing his
Ed.D. From day one he was been number one in
academic standing. He also consults with private
industry and government entities.

 Current Initiatives
- Scientific research, learning model development, and
publications
- Critical national defense and Congressional research
- Global research initiatives (pubic-private funded grants)
- Collegiate and executive level textbook on the topic of
experiential learning and maximizing performance and returns
of investment
- Design, approach, applied theory and methodologies, identification and
development of actionable intelligence that is viewed as critical to top level
strategists and senior executives
- Identifying emerging trends and changing environments
- Contribute organization’s knowledge, decision making processes, and
establishment of policy.

 Focus
- Education
- Knowledge based
learning
- System modeling
- Program development
- Implementation
- Evaluation
- Knowledge officer
- Change agent
- Critical programs leader

 Advanced civilian education and credentials
- Doctorate of Education, Organizational Leadership, Pepperdine
University (Honors), pending May 2017
- Doctorate of Philosophy, Distance Management and Advanced
Technologies, University of Phoenix, pending May 2019
- Master of Science, Architecture, Oklahoma University (Honors)

 Civilian and advanced defense education and credentials
- Army Logistics Executive Development College (ALEDC-
Graduate)
- Defense Acquisitions University (DAU), Level 2 Contracting
Certification
- Defense Acquisitions University (DAU), Level 2 Program
Management Certification
- Bachelor of Science, Architecture, Oklahoma University
(Honors)
- Bachelor of Science, Environmental Design, Oklahoma
University (Honors)

 Civilian and advanced defense education and credentials
- Command and General Staff Officer College, U.S. Army
(CGSOC-Graduate),
- Bachelor of Science, Journalism & Public Relations (Honors)
Majors in Geology, Political Science, Wichita State University

 Leadership certification
- Licensed Architect
- California Board of Architect Examiners, Oral commissioner
- Industrial Manufacturing Research, Development, Acquisitions,
Fielding and Disposal, U. S. Army
- Level 2 Contracting Certification
- Level 2 Program Management Certification
- Federal Administration Executive Certification

 Specialties
- Professional Designations & Affiliations
- Lieutenant Colonel, USAR (Ret), Battalion Cmdr.
- Organizational Development, Director of Programs,
Publications, Researcher, and Author
- Member, American Institute of Architects (AIA)
- Army Contracting Agency, Level 2 Contracting Cert.
- Department of Defense, Level 2 Program Management Cert.

 Specialties
- Board Certified Architect (multi-state)
- CAB Exam Review Sub-Committee Leadership
- National Assoc. of Industrial and Office Properties (NAIOP)
- Calif. Architects Board (CAB) Exam Commissioner
- Industrial Asset Management Council (IAMC)
- PMP
- Acquisitions & procurement executive
- Education & learning program design and development
- Performance assessment, evaluation, program design,
implementation, and reassessment
- Organizational knowledge officer
- Organizational behavior (OB) analyst

 Research purpose
○ Academic approach and initiatives
- Scholarly research and academic contributions
- Closing the gaps in the literature
- Critical peer-reviews
- Learning and development publications
- Huff University – Educational video resources
- Multi-variant longitudinal frameworks - factors or categories for
emerging trends (Schmieder-Mallette SPELIT Model)
- Social
- Political
- Economic
- Legal
- Inter-cultural diversity
- Technology

○ Unique Perspective
- Critical research with unique Sino-perspective
- Advanced colligate and executive development insights
- Augments country brief intelligence investigations,
methodologies, and instruments
- Applies Huff’s Globular Nebula Theory
- Hierarchical hidden Markov Model (adapted to this studies
data as multi-dimensionally connected axons and dendrite
- Saldana’s Coding and Decoding for qualitative research
- Nash’s Equilibrium – Three Game Theory
- Hierarchical hidden Markov Model (HHMH) - adapted to this
studies data as multi-dimensionally connected axons and
dendrite

 Present the evidence
○ An emerging disruptive change, and…
○ Offer an assessment of East Asian and Western
disruptive strategies
 Divergence
 Convergence
○ Offer insight as to China’s future direction and the
potential impact to the global community over the
next ten years

○ Explore and improve
 The process of empirical (scientific) discovery
• Increase the understanding and impact of time-phased bias
• Increase the understanding and critical nature of pattern
coding and recognition
• Increase the understanding and critical characteristics of
exceptionalism and nationalism while preserving
individuality

 Improve the process and modeling of relevant knowledge
creation
- Through
• Experiential learning (study abroad programs)
• Technical publishing, papers, and presentations to include
constructive feedback
• Identifying and developing of actionable knowledge of value
• Networking with and creating knowledge working groups as
developers, survey panelists, peer reviewers, that are
centered on critical inquiries

 The ability to increase the return on investment (ROI) to the
individual investigator (student or learner)
 Increase the ROI to the supported organization or
executive agency

 Approach
 Mr. Huff’s work is based on detailed research and the opinions of
scholars and subject matter experts within the framework of his
core research initiatives.
- He presents the facts as they are today.
- His work and presentations represent little if any personal bias.
- He is largely detached from his research findings and
discoveries; remains open to critical input and discovery; and,
readily accepts opposing research and supporting data, events,
and causalities as contributions to his research, investigations,
analysis, and findings.

 Presentation Design
○ Specific and implied tasks pertaining to this
presentation
- Lesson objectives and learning requirements

 Limitations
 Mr. Huff’s East Asian hemisphere study’s, supporting
research, and developmental education learning
materials are undertaken with a particular emphasis
on the discovery of unique insight into the Sino-
culture or worldview as opposed to capturing the data
and performing the subsequent analysis from a
Western bias.

 Limitations
 So what does this mean? Why was this approach used?
- The study is longitudinal
- Has a space-time bias
- Data sampling is bias by
70 percent
- Chinese people surveys
- Narratives
- Subject matter experts
- Scholars
- Reduce or eliminate
Western bias
• Normalcy bias
• Ideologies
• Dogma
• Cultural influencers
• Environmental factors
• Drivers
• Policies

 Implementation
- Based upon the surveys, narratives, and
research of over 187 Western, East European,
and Asian scholars.
- The data and discoveries have been incorporated
in Huff’s research, articles, and the publication of
his textbook and dissertation.
 This Presentation
- This presentation focuses on the Sino-
perspective in the context of using political and
economic factors, financial power and influence,
within the present global environment as a
“weapon of war.”
Return to Outline

 Major areas of interest – Potential
takeaways
○ Directed inquiry
○ 15 questions posed/directed by the
organization/agency
- China’s Approach to Economic Warfield
• 1. How could the economy be used in warfare?
• 2. How important is the economy as a warfare
asset?
• 3. What makes the economy a game changer?

takeaways
- 4. How China’s economy could be used as a strategic
warfare asset?
• Precious metals vs petro-dollars as the basis of
sovereign wealth and international currency
• Warfare training differences between the United
States and China

takeaways
- 5. What are examples of China’s economic
strategies and tactics that are being employed
today vs those possible in the future?
- 6. What is the impact to the global community?
- East Asia versus Western-bloc ideologies
- Intellectual property mercantilism vs unprotected
market-based capitalism
• How does it affect the U.S.
- Current prevailing strengths and weaknesses
between China and the United States

takeaways
- East Asia versus Western-bloc ideologies
- 7. What are the perceptional (ideological)
differences between China and the United
States?
- 8. Do they form a convergence or divergence of
the respective national interests and cultures?
- 9. What is the status today of the Chinese and
the United States’ national strategies and
published plans or reforms?
• China vs the United States – Frameworks for
successes and failures
• The Chinese ideology and their economy,
culture, and global agendas

takeaways
- Pure gaming strategies (A three player game)
- 10. What is China’s long –term pure strategy?
- 11. How transparent is this strategy?
- 12. How does China’s ancient history influence
and drive its national strategies and reform
measures?
- 13. How transformative, innovative, and
accepting of change is China’s government, party
system, and people?
GPS-AG, Inc. (Copyright protected) 375/26/2016

takeaways
- Cultural differences
- Dogma differentials
- British, East European, and the West vs East
Asian
• Historical & demographic characterizations
• Governance
• Enterprise
• People

takeaways
- Pure strategy gaming (A three player game)
- 14. How do China’s morality, ethics, and rule of
law influence its national strategies and
planning?
- 15. How does China’s exceptionalism and
nationalism play into the Chinese internal and
external gaming strategies?

 Research design, theory, methods,
implementation, findings, and analysis
 How the research team reached these
discoveries
- Rigorously applied
- Hegelian theory
- Socratic method – eliciting truth by question and
answer
- Other empirical investigative methods applied
• Utilized time-phased bias
• Detailed pattern recognition and coding
• Sustained focus on the central inquiry and relevance
• Maintained a Sino-bias and perspective (not easy)
Return to Outline

 Findings – Inquiry #1
 How could the economy be used in warfare?

 Supporting Evidence – 1 (Original research)
SEE LINKED INFORMATION

 Supporting Evidence – 2 (Externalities)

 Significant inferences
○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How important is the economy as a warfare
asset?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 What makes the economy a game changer?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How could China’s economy be used as a
strategic warfare asset?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 What are examples of China’s economic
strategies and tactics that are being
employed today vs. those possible in the
future?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 What is the impact to the global community?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 What are the perceptional (ideological)
differences between China and the United
States?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 Do they form a convergence or divergence
of the respective national interests and
cultures?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 What is the status today of the Chinese and
the United States’ national strategies and
published plans or reforms?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 What is China’s long-term pure strategy?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How transparent is this strategy?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How does China’s ancient history influence
and drive its national strategies and reform
measures?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How transformative, innovative, and
accepting of change is China’s government,
party system, and people?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How do China’s morality, ethics, and rule of
law influence its national strategies and
planning?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 How does China’s exceptionalism and
nationalism play into the Chinese internal
and external gaming strategies?

○ Inference – 1

○ Inference – 2

○ Inference – 3

 Conclusions – Summarized - 1
Return to Outline

 Terms and definitions
Return to Outline

 Suggested readings

Research maintained focus on the fact…
You can’t walk in the same river
twice

Thank you for your time and attention!
Please complete the survey provided to let us know how to
improve our work.
Questions?
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Defense Intelligence Brief_160511-03

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