This document summarizes Dr. Gaurav Bissa's presentation on decision making. It outlines the 5 steps of the decision making process: 1) defining the problem, 2) formulating hypotheses, 3) collecting facts, 4) conducting analysis, and 5) developing a solution. It also discusses techniques like intuitive decision making and employee involvement in decision making. Finally, it provides 3 "management lessons" using analogies about turkeys, birds, and cow dung to illustrate principles like how appearances can be deceiving and the risks of overconfidence.

1. “Decision Making”
by
Dr. Gaurav Bissa
Associate Professor (Reader)
Govt. Engineering College
Bikaner
drgauravbissa@rediffmail.com
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

2. Objectives of Presentation
• Decision making: an idea
• Decision making process
• Techniques of Decision making
• Problems associated with decision
making
• Group Decision making
• Ethics & Decision making
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

3. Decision making Process
I. Defining the Problem
II. Formulating the
Hypothesis
III. Collecting the Facts
IV. Conducting the Analysis
V. Developing the Solution
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

4. Problem
Solution Hypothesis
Analysis Facts
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

5. Problem
Defining the Problem Solution
Analysis
Hypothesis
Facts
Definition:
• A problem is a situation that is judged as something that
needs to be corrected – implies that a state of
"wholeness" does not exist
Importance:
• It is our job to make sure we’re solving the right problem –
it may not be the one presented to us by the client. What
do we really need to solve?
Basic Concepts:
• Most of the problems are initially identified by our clients
• Defining the problem clearly improves focus – it drives the
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
analytical process Professor

6. Problem
Formulating the Hypotheses Solution
Analysis
Hypothesis
Facts
Definition:
• Hypothesis is a tentative explanation for an
observation that can be tested (i.e. proved or
disproved) by further investigation
Importance:
• Start at the end - Figuring out the solution to the
problem, i.e. "hypothesizing", before you start will
help build a roadmap for approaching the
problem.
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

7. Problem
Collecting the Facts Solution
Analysis
Hypothesis
Facts
Definition:
• Meaningful information (has merit – not false) that is
qualitative (expert opinions) or quantitative (measurable
performance) to your decisions
Importance:
• Gathering relevant data and information is a critical step
in supporting the analyses required for proving or
disproving the hypotheses
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

8. Basic Concepts:
• Know where to dig
• Know how to filter through information
• Know how to verify – Has happened in the
past
• Know how to apply – Relates to what you
are trying to solve
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

9. Problem
Conducting the Analysis Solution
Analysis
Hypothesis
Facts
Definition:
• The deliberate process of breaking a problem down
through the application of knowledge and various
analytical techniques
Importance:
• Analysis of the facts is required to prove or disprove the
hypotheses
• Analysis provides an understanding of issues and drivers
behind the problem
Basic Concepts:
• It is generally better to spend more time analyzing the
data and information as opposed to collecting them. The
goal is to find the “golden nuggets” that quickly confirm
or deny a hypothesis
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

10. Problem
Developing the Solution Solution
Analysis
Hypothesis
Facts
Definition:
• Solutions are the final recommendations
presented to our clients based on the outcomes
of the hypothesis testing
Basic Concepts:
• It is important to ensure the solution fits the
client – solutions are useless if they cannot be
implemented.
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

11. Decision Making?????
1. Conflicts within organizations
2. How to avoid decisions?
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

12. Intuitive Decision Making
• Ability to know when a problem or
opportunity exists and select the best
course of action without conscious
reasoning
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

13. Employee Involvement in Decision
Making
The degree that employees share
information, knowledge, rewards, and power
throughout the organization
– active in decisions previous outside their
control
– power to influence decisions
– knowledge sharing
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

14. How Involvement Improves
Decisions
Identify and define
problems better
Employee Usually identify more
and better solutions
Involvement
More likely to select
the best option
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

15. Contingencies of Employee
Involvement
• Decision quality
• Decision commitment
• Decision conflict
• Structured problem
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

16. Overcoming Involvement
Challenges
• Cultural Differences
– Better in collectivist and low power distance
cultures
• Management Resistance
– Educate/train managers to become facilitators
• Employee and Union Resistance
– Concerns about increased stress, giving up union
rights, and union power
– Solution is trust and involvement
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
Professor

17. Framework for Decision Making
Unusual Innovative decisions Uncertainty
and e
ad
ambiguous m
a re
s
si on
Adaptive Risk ci
de
decisions ch
w hi
r
nde
Routine nsu
itio
decisions nd
Co
Certainty
Known and Untried and
Dr. GAURAV BISSA, Associate
well defined Professor ambiguous 17

18. Management Lesson - 1
Can I also sit
like you and
do nothing
all day long?
Sure,
why not
To be sitting and doing nothing,
you must be sitting very, very high up...

19. Management Lesson - 2
Well, why don’t you The turkey pecked
nibble on some at a lump of dung
of my droppings. and found that it
They are packed actually gave him
with nutrients. enough strength to
reach the first
branch of the tree.
The next day, after
eating some more dung,
he reached the second
branch. Finally after a
fortnight, there he was
proudly perched at the
I would love top of the tree. Soon he
to be able to was promptly spotted
get to the top by a farmer, who shot
of that tree. the turkey out of the
But I haven’t tree!
got the energy
Bullshit might get you to the top,
but it won’t keep you there...

20. Management Lesson - 3
A little bird was flying
south for the winter.
While it was lying there, a cow came by
and dropped some dung on it. As the
frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung,
it began to realize how warm it was. The dung
was actually thawing him out. He lay there all
warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy
A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate.
Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the
pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him!
1. Not everyone who drops shit on you is your enemy
2. Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend
3. And when you are in deep shit, keep your mouth shut!

21. Thank You
Presented by:
Dr. Gaurav Bissa
Associate Professor
Govt. Engineering College
Bikaner
Phone –BISSA, Associate
Dr. GAURAV
9414475264
Professor