DCF
                                                  FY09A                           FY10A               FY11A               FY12E               FY13E               FY14E                FY15E               FY16E                Terminal Year
Revenue                                                            $4,287,130             $4,176,627          $4,662,264          $4,908,195          $5,169,581          $5,447,546           $5,695,045          $5,954,422           $6,226,260

        Domestic ( US Markets)                                     $2,910,094             $2,818,032          $3,155,608          $3,313,388          $3,479,058          $3,653,011           $3,835,661          $4,027,444           $4,228,817

        Europe                                                         $700,882            $699,492            $781,432            $797,061            $813,002            $829,262             $845,847            $862,764             $880,019

        Others ( Asia and Japan)                                       $676,154            $659,103            $725,224            $797,746            $877,521            $965,273            $1,013,537          $1,064,214           $1,117,424

% growth                                                                                     (2.58%)             11.63%               5.27%               5.33%               5.38%                4.54%               4.55%                2.50%

EBITDA                                                                 $645,088            $793,716            $803,103            $834,393            $878,829            $980,558            $1,025,108          $1,071,796           $1,120,727

% margin                                                                15.05%               19.00%              17.23%              17.00%              17.00%              18.00%               18.00%              18.00%               18.00%

EBIT                                                                   $406,812            $545,470            $629,144            $651,258            $685,941            $777,299             $812,614            $849,624             $888,412

NOPAT                                                                  $264,428            $354,556            $408,944            $423,318            $445,861            $505,244             $528,199            $552,255             $577,468

Working capital change                                                 $128,614           -$334,130             $39,595             $41,684             $43,903             $46,264              $48,366             $50,569              $52,877

Tax % of EBIT                                                           35.00%               35.00%              35.00%              35.00%              35.00%              35.00%               35.00%              35.00%               35.00%

D&A                                                                     238,276             248,246             173,959             183,135             192,888             203,260              212,494             222,172              232,315

                            D&A % of revenue                             5.56%                5.94%               3.73%               3.73%               3.73%               3.73%                3.73%               3.73%                3.73%

Tax expense                                                             142,384             190,915             220,200             227,940             240,079             272,055              284,415             297,368              310,944

FCF                                                                     262,774             769,202             363,320             555,275             404,767             642,014              492,694             693,620              546,777

Discount factor                                                            1.08                 1.16                1.24                1.34                1.44                1.54                 1.66                1.78                   1.92

NPV of FCF                                                             $244,441            $665,615            $292,458            $415,790            $281,944            $416,001             $296,973            $388,914             $285,190

Capex                                                                  $111,316            $167,730            $179,988              $9,494            $190,079             $20,225             $199,634             $30,238             $210,128

                         Capex as % of revenues                          2.60%                4.02%               3.86%                  4%                  4%                  4%                   4%                  4%                     4%

Terminal value                                                    $11,208,933

FCFF                                                              $14,496,259

Cash                                                               $1,096,710

Net debt                                                               $303,000

Equity value                                                      $14,193,259

WACC                                                                     7.50%

Shares Outstanding                                          231,300

Firm Value of Motorcycles                                 13,399,549

Financial Division Book Value (FY12E)                                  $986,539

Growth Rate of Financial Division                                        4.93%

Financial Division Book Value (FY12E)                              $1,035,175

Total Value                                                       $15,228,435

Price                                                                     65.84

Dcf

  • 1.
    DCF FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Terminal Year Revenue $4,287,130 $4,176,627 $4,662,264 $4,908,195 $5,169,581 $5,447,546 $5,695,045 $5,954,422 $6,226,260 Domestic ( US Markets) $2,910,094 $2,818,032 $3,155,608 $3,313,388 $3,479,058 $3,653,011 $3,835,661 $4,027,444 $4,228,817 Europe $700,882 $699,492 $781,432 $797,061 $813,002 $829,262 $845,847 $862,764 $880,019 Others ( Asia and Japan) $676,154 $659,103 $725,224 $797,746 $877,521 $965,273 $1,013,537 $1,064,214 $1,117,424 % growth (2.58%) 11.63% 5.27% 5.33% 5.38% 4.54% 4.55% 2.50% EBITDA $645,088 $793,716 $803,103 $834,393 $878,829 $980,558 $1,025,108 $1,071,796 $1,120,727 % margin 15.05% 19.00% 17.23% 17.00% 17.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% EBIT $406,812 $545,470 $629,144 $651,258 $685,941 $777,299 $812,614 $849,624 $888,412 NOPAT $264,428 $354,556 $408,944 $423,318 $445,861 $505,244 $528,199 $552,255 $577,468 Working capital change $128,614 -$334,130 $39,595 $41,684 $43,903 $46,264 $48,366 $50,569 $52,877 Tax % of EBIT 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% D&A 238,276 248,246 173,959 183,135 192,888 203,260 212,494 222,172 232,315 D&A % of revenue 5.56% 5.94% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% Tax expense 142,384 190,915 220,200 227,940 240,079 272,055 284,415 297,368 310,944 FCF 262,774 769,202 363,320 555,275 404,767 642,014 492,694 693,620 546,777 Discount factor 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.34 1.44 1.54 1.66 1.78 1.92 NPV of FCF $244,441 $665,615 $292,458 $415,790 $281,944 $416,001 $296,973 $388,914 $285,190 Capex $111,316 $167,730 $179,988 $9,494 $190,079 $20,225 $199,634 $30,238 $210,128 Capex as % of revenues 2.60% 4.02% 3.86% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Terminal value $11,208,933 FCFF $14,496,259 Cash $1,096,710 Net debt $303,000 Equity value $14,193,259 WACC 7.50% Shares Outstanding 231,300 Firm Value of Motorcycles 13,399,549 Financial Division Book Value (FY12E) $986,539 Growth Rate of Financial Division 4.93% Financial Division Book Value (FY12E) $1,035,175 Total Value $15,228,435 Price 65.84