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Concordia Bus
Deutsche Bank HYB Conference
London – June 2002
2
Safe Harbour
The matters discussed in this presentation include
forward-looking statements that are subject to risks
and uncertainties including but not limited to
economic conditions, product demand, competitive
products and services, government regulation,
financial resources, certain litigation and other risks
indicated in filings with the US Securities and
Exchange commission
Frode Larsen - Chief Executive Officer
4
Corporate Purpose
TO BUILD A FOCUSSED, LEADING URBAN BUS
TRANSPORTATION COMPANY
WITHIN EUROPE
THROUGH THE CREATION OF A PROFITABLE
GROUP OF COMPANIES OPERATING UNDER
A STANDARD 'CONCORDIA CONCEPT'
UNDER
THE VALUE BASED MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY
FOR SUSTAINABLE VALUE GROWTH
FOR
SHAREHOLDERS AND STAKEHOLDERS
5
Concordia Concept
Standardisation of the bus fleet and
organisation model
Minimisation of residual value
risk through integration with
bus manufacturers
Operational excellence and scale
in sourcing
“To become an “asset-free” bus
operator which buys
transportation capacity by the
kilometre and focuses on
providing the most efficient bus
services”
6
(a) Annual accounts February 28, 2002
Largest Nordic Bus Operator
Swedish Market Share
The CPTA Business
Service
Fees
Outsourcing
of Public
Service
Government/
Local Authorities
Ticket Income
Concordia Bus
Contract
 4 - 6 years
 Fee per
km of
service
provided
Service Fees
Concordia
35%
Bus Pools
20%
Connex
18%
Busslink
15%
Municipalities
12%
Revenue Breakdown by Source (a)
Sweden
66%
Norway
12%
Finland
9%
Express Bus 7%
Coach hire 4%
Total CPTA 87%
Other 2%
 Revenues contracted
 Municipality credit risk
7
Initial Underperformance
 Dramatic increase in diesel prices
 Increased oil prices and Swedish Krona depreciation
 Sensitivity to oil price increase previously high. Hedging
strategy and indexation has significantly reduced sensitivity
 Two new “mispriced” contracts inherited from the seller
 Inflation compensation lower than realized cost inflation
 CPI of 1.3% versus realized bus cost inflation of 2.4%; as at
February 2000, majority of revenue indexed to CPI
 Cost savings more difficult to realize than originally anticipated
8
We have now “Turned the Corner”
 Operating recovery underway in FY2003
 New Contracts successfully operational without major issues and
started to contribute substantially
 Restructuring programme announced in February has been
successfully implemented providing incremental benefits
 Quarter 1 FY2003 Highlights:
 Revenue up + 12.6%
 EBITDAR up + 74.7%
 EBITDA up + 86.6%
 “External” factors remain positively in our favour
 Diesel prices stabilising
 Swedish inflation acceptable
Performance of the business has turned and is improving:
new, profitable contracts, a better operating environment and incremental
cost savings
9
Strong Recent Improvement
Year-on-year increases in Q3 and Q4 of Fy2002 and Q1 of Fy2003 were 46%,56% and
75 % and management expects this trend be within this range
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003
EBITDARSEKMillion(a)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
EBITDARMargin(%)
EBITDAR EBITDAR Margin
(a) Excluding exceptional gain/loss on asset sales and including Concordia Bus management charge
10
Achievements to Date
LeasingCost Reductions
 Operational leases have
provided attractive
financing and operating
flexibility
 Ability to put buses back
to lessor at residual
value, and agreement to
share upside (market
value – residual value)
Improved Pricing
904
1,207
Inherited Feb-2002
13
17
Inherited Feb-2002
34%
30%
12
60
125 135
FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004
Revenue per Bus (SEK ‘000) Revised Timing
25
90
125
FY2001 FY2002 FY2003
Revenue per Km (SEK) Original Timing
Vasant Mistry - Chief Financial Officer
12
Risks
Coverage and Management..……
13
Business of Contract Management
Aug-Oct
2001
Aug-Oct
2000
Aug-Oct
1999
Tender
Period
Aug-Oct
2002
Aug-Oct
2001
May-Oct
2000
Contract
Start
FY 2003
Mar-Feb
2003
FY 2002
Mar-Feb
2002
FY2001
Mar-Feb
2001
Fiscal Year
Impact
Operator Stagecoach Concordia Bus
 Diversified portfolio of contracts
 Geographical diversity
 City based urban traffic
 All key cities in Sweden and and capital cities covered with average + market share
 Varying lengths of contract – on average 20-30% contract expire each year
14
Improved Contract Portfolio
 Disciplined approach to the evaluation of contract tenders, focused on cash generation and return on
capital
 More accurate planning with new tools
 Numerous new contracts won with EBITDAR margin above management target threshold
 Strong foothold in Sweden - geographical spread
Proportion of New / Renewed Contracts(a) Development in EBITDAR Margin
Previous Management New Management
9.7%
25.0%
FYE 2001 New Management's
Contracts
100% 91% 88%
72%
9% 12%
28%
February
2000
February
2001
February
2002
February
2003
(a) Based on FY revenues
Total Portfolio
+
15
3,600
4,800
Fy2000 Lost Contracts New Contracts Rewon
Contracts
Existing
Improvements
Indexation FY2003
Revenue Development positively upward..
Contractual
From Fy2000 – Fy2003 : Three years
16
Diesel Price Risk managed effectively
FY 2001 Average: 2,044
FY 2002 Average: 2,435
Hedge at 2,012
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
FY 2003 July +6 SEK 2,150
FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003
Total fuel exposure for FY 2003 now 50% hedged via indexation and new
SEK 2,012/mT hedge (a)
(a) Hedges in place for FY2003 represent 27,000mT, or approximately 33% of total fuel exposure
Influencing Index compensation setting with CPTA
Market watch and execution of well defined hedging strategy
17
Asset Value Risk Management
 Residual value of all new buses
guaranteed
 Put at year 4 -10 to
manufacturer at pre-set price
 Match between lease lengths
and contract duration
 Option to keep buses until the
end of life
 Leasing cost significantly
reduced after 5 years
 Amortisation schedule “front-
end loaded”, amortising 50%
of initial value over just four
years
Overview Residual Value Guarantee
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000Residual value %
Lease Payments
18
Significantly Improved Liquidity
Scheduled Amortisation of Senior Debt by Fiscal Years (SEK million)
175
175
150150
125125
0 0 0
125
40
H1
2003
H2
2003
H1
2004
H2
2004
H1
2005
H2
2005
H1
2006
H2
2006
H1
2007
H2
2007
 Strong cash generation due to improving operating performance and
absence of debt amortisation
 In the interim , de-leveraging through sale of Bus fleet
 Liquidity further improved by
 Very limited Capex
 Improvement in working capital
 No tax expenses
Bullet
Term
Facility
19
State of the Art Technology and
applications…improved management systems…..
Standardisation Common Applications
Traffic planning
Fleet Maintenance
Financial Applications
Business Planning –DSS
New Operations Management
system (under development)
Internal Systems focus leading to Proactive Management of risks and
improved profitability…
Web based Distribution of management information
Web based location/Depot level dissemination of operating and
financial information
Culture change and introduction of results driven culture
20
Concordia’s Capitalisation (SEK m)
May 31, 2002February 2002
High Yield Bond 1,454 1,454
Other Debt 1,060 1,021
Total Debt 2,514 2,475
Cash 422 207
Net Debt 2,092 2,268
Equity 444 400
NBV of Assets 2,016 2,096
Net Debt+ Leases / EBITDAR 5.78 5.39(a)
(a) – Based on last 12 months EBITDAR
21
Financial Overview
Yes.. we are currently highly leveraged…but .
Top-line growth driven principally by introduction of new contracts
already awarded
Vast majority of FY2003 revenues contractually agreed
EBITDAR development driven by introduction of new contracts in
addition to unwinding of less profitable inherited contracts
Better Risk management and control systems
Continuing Restructuring will further enhance margin
Management incentivised to deliver financials
Strong Shareholder backing, improving credit ratios and macro and
industry factors …
We are better prepared for the future than we were yesterday..
23
Summary
Right
Assets at
Right Time
Proven
Manage-
ment and
Business
Model
 The largest bus operator in Nordic Europe
 Maximise Driver Utilisation
 Optimise Fleet Utilisation
 Optimise Maintenance/ Operations
 Reduce Purchasing Costs
 Reduce Overheads
Strategic Initiative
CashOutflow 4
If contracts are
not renewed
C a s h R e l e a s e d
C a p e x ( F i x e d )
 Convert fixed costs to variable
 Release cash
1 8
ContractPricing
Time from Start of Deregulation
Germany
Norway
Sweden
Finland
UK
Recent
contracts
show price
increases of
15-40%
Denmark
Years
24
Concordia Bus Organisation
Concordia Bus AB
High Yield Debt
Concordia Bus BV(a)
Concordia Bus Holding
AB
Concordia Bus Nordic AB
Senior Debt
Swebus SBCInterbus
Concordia
Finland
Swebus
Express
Other
Companies
(a) 51% owned by an affiliate of Goldman Sachs International

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DB HYB Conference 200206

  • 1. Concordia Bus Deutsche Bank HYB Conference London – June 2002
  • 2. 2 Safe Harbour The matters discussed in this presentation include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including but not limited to economic conditions, product demand, competitive products and services, government regulation, financial resources, certain litigation and other risks indicated in filings with the US Securities and Exchange commission
  • 3. Frode Larsen - Chief Executive Officer
  • 4. 4 Corporate Purpose TO BUILD A FOCUSSED, LEADING URBAN BUS TRANSPORTATION COMPANY WITHIN EUROPE THROUGH THE CREATION OF A PROFITABLE GROUP OF COMPANIES OPERATING UNDER A STANDARD 'CONCORDIA CONCEPT' UNDER THE VALUE BASED MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY FOR SUSTAINABLE VALUE GROWTH FOR SHAREHOLDERS AND STAKEHOLDERS
  • 5. 5 Concordia Concept Standardisation of the bus fleet and organisation model Minimisation of residual value risk through integration with bus manufacturers Operational excellence and scale in sourcing “To become an “asset-free” bus operator which buys transportation capacity by the kilometre and focuses on providing the most efficient bus services”
  • 6. 6 (a) Annual accounts February 28, 2002 Largest Nordic Bus Operator Swedish Market Share The CPTA Business Service Fees Outsourcing of Public Service Government/ Local Authorities Ticket Income Concordia Bus Contract  4 - 6 years  Fee per km of service provided Service Fees Concordia 35% Bus Pools 20% Connex 18% Busslink 15% Municipalities 12% Revenue Breakdown by Source (a) Sweden 66% Norway 12% Finland 9% Express Bus 7% Coach hire 4% Total CPTA 87% Other 2%  Revenues contracted  Municipality credit risk
  • 7. 7 Initial Underperformance  Dramatic increase in diesel prices  Increased oil prices and Swedish Krona depreciation  Sensitivity to oil price increase previously high. Hedging strategy and indexation has significantly reduced sensitivity  Two new “mispriced” contracts inherited from the seller  Inflation compensation lower than realized cost inflation  CPI of 1.3% versus realized bus cost inflation of 2.4%; as at February 2000, majority of revenue indexed to CPI  Cost savings more difficult to realize than originally anticipated
  • 8. 8 We have now “Turned the Corner”  Operating recovery underway in FY2003  New Contracts successfully operational without major issues and started to contribute substantially  Restructuring programme announced in February has been successfully implemented providing incremental benefits  Quarter 1 FY2003 Highlights:  Revenue up + 12.6%  EBITDAR up + 74.7%  EBITDA up + 86.6%  “External” factors remain positively in our favour  Diesel prices stabilising  Swedish inflation acceptable Performance of the business has turned and is improving: new, profitable contracts, a better operating environment and incremental cost savings
  • 9. 9 Strong Recent Improvement Year-on-year increases in Q3 and Q4 of Fy2002 and Q1 of Fy2003 were 46%,56% and 75 % and management expects this trend be within this range 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 EBITDARSEKMillion(a) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 EBITDARMargin(%) EBITDAR EBITDAR Margin (a) Excluding exceptional gain/loss on asset sales and including Concordia Bus management charge
  • 10. 10 Achievements to Date LeasingCost Reductions  Operational leases have provided attractive financing and operating flexibility  Ability to put buses back to lessor at residual value, and agreement to share upside (market value – residual value) Improved Pricing 904 1,207 Inherited Feb-2002 13 17 Inherited Feb-2002 34% 30% 12 60 125 135 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 Revenue per Bus (SEK ‘000) Revised Timing 25 90 125 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 Revenue per Km (SEK) Original Timing
  • 11. Vasant Mistry - Chief Financial Officer
  • 13. 13 Business of Contract Management Aug-Oct 2001 Aug-Oct 2000 Aug-Oct 1999 Tender Period Aug-Oct 2002 Aug-Oct 2001 May-Oct 2000 Contract Start FY 2003 Mar-Feb 2003 FY 2002 Mar-Feb 2002 FY2001 Mar-Feb 2001 Fiscal Year Impact Operator Stagecoach Concordia Bus  Diversified portfolio of contracts  Geographical diversity  City based urban traffic  All key cities in Sweden and and capital cities covered with average + market share  Varying lengths of contract – on average 20-30% contract expire each year
  • 14. 14 Improved Contract Portfolio  Disciplined approach to the evaluation of contract tenders, focused on cash generation and return on capital  More accurate planning with new tools  Numerous new contracts won with EBITDAR margin above management target threshold  Strong foothold in Sweden - geographical spread Proportion of New / Renewed Contracts(a) Development in EBITDAR Margin Previous Management New Management 9.7% 25.0% FYE 2001 New Management's Contracts 100% 91% 88% 72% 9% 12% 28% February 2000 February 2001 February 2002 February 2003 (a) Based on FY revenues Total Portfolio +
  • 15. 15 3,600 4,800 Fy2000 Lost Contracts New Contracts Rewon Contracts Existing Improvements Indexation FY2003 Revenue Development positively upward.. Contractual From Fy2000 – Fy2003 : Three years
  • 16. 16 Diesel Price Risk managed effectively FY 2001 Average: 2,044 FY 2002 Average: 2,435 Hedge at 2,012 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan FY 2003 July +6 SEK 2,150 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 Total fuel exposure for FY 2003 now 50% hedged via indexation and new SEK 2,012/mT hedge (a) (a) Hedges in place for FY2003 represent 27,000mT, or approximately 33% of total fuel exposure Influencing Index compensation setting with CPTA Market watch and execution of well defined hedging strategy
  • 17. 17 Asset Value Risk Management  Residual value of all new buses guaranteed  Put at year 4 -10 to manufacturer at pre-set price  Match between lease lengths and contract duration  Option to keep buses until the end of life  Leasing cost significantly reduced after 5 years  Amortisation schedule “front- end loaded”, amortising 50% of initial value over just four years Overview Residual Value Guarantee 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000Residual value % Lease Payments
  • 18. 18 Significantly Improved Liquidity Scheduled Amortisation of Senior Debt by Fiscal Years (SEK million) 175 175 150150 125125 0 0 0 125 40 H1 2003 H2 2003 H1 2004 H2 2004 H1 2005 H2 2005 H1 2006 H2 2006 H1 2007 H2 2007  Strong cash generation due to improving operating performance and absence of debt amortisation  In the interim , de-leveraging through sale of Bus fleet  Liquidity further improved by  Very limited Capex  Improvement in working capital  No tax expenses Bullet Term Facility
  • 19. 19 State of the Art Technology and applications…improved management systems….. Standardisation Common Applications Traffic planning Fleet Maintenance Financial Applications Business Planning –DSS New Operations Management system (under development) Internal Systems focus leading to Proactive Management of risks and improved profitability… Web based Distribution of management information Web based location/Depot level dissemination of operating and financial information Culture change and introduction of results driven culture
  • 20. 20 Concordia’s Capitalisation (SEK m) May 31, 2002February 2002 High Yield Bond 1,454 1,454 Other Debt 1,060 1,021 Total Debt 2,514 2,475 Cash 422 207 Net Debt 2,092 2,268 Equity 444 400 NBV of Assets 2,016 2,096 Net Debt+ Leases / EBITDAR 5.78 5.39(a) (a) – Based on last 12 months EBITDAR
  • 21. 21 Financial Overview Yes.. we are currently highly leveraged…but . Top-line growth driven principally by introduction of new contracts already awarded Vast majority of FY2003 revenues contractually agreed EBITDAR development driven by introduction of new contracts in addition to unwinding of less profitable inherited contracts Better Risk management and control systems Continuing Restructuring will further enhance margin Management incentivised to deliver financials Strong Shareholder backing, improving credit ratios and macro and industry factors … We are better prepared for the future than we were yesterday..
  • 22.
  • 23. 23 Summary Right Assets at Right Time Proven Manage- ment and Business Model  The largest bus operator in Nordic Europe  Maximise Driver Utilisation  Optimise Fleet Utilisation  Optimise Maintenance/ Operations  Reduce Purchasing Costs  Reduce Overheads Strategic Initiative CashOutflow 4 If contracts are not renewed C a s h R e l e a s e d C a p e x ( F i x e d )  Convert fixed costs to variable  Release cash 1 8 ContractPricing Time from Start of Deregulation Germany Norway Sweden Finland UK Recent contracts show price increases of 15-40% Denmark Years
  • 24. 24 Concordia Bus Organisation Concordia Bus AB High Yield Debt Concordia Bus BV(a) Concordia Bus Holding AB Concordia Bus Nordic AB Senior Debt Swebus SBCInterbus Concordia Finland Swebus Express Other Companies (a) 51% owned by an affiliate of Goldman Sachs International