1. The document introduces expert judgment and provides ground rules for an estimation course. The rules include arriving early, no electronics, bringing paper for assignments, asking questions respectfully, and providing feedback. 2. It defines an expert as someone qualified and recognized in their field with background knowledge. Expert judgment is applicable when direct measurements, observations, experiments, or simulations are not available. 3. As an assignment, students are divided into groups to estimate the time and costs required for a hypothetical operation to capture or kill Osama bin Laden based on their expertise in air, navy, or land operations. They will then compare their estimates to actual historical details of the operation.

1. Estimation course
Introducing
EXPERT JUDGMENT

2. Instructor - Intro

3. W
There are ground rules
for every sport
What are ours?

4. Here are the ground rules
1. Be in class 5 minutes before start.
If( Late) join without asking
permission
2. Do not bring in cell phone/ laptops
to sessions
3. Bring a plain A-4 size paper to class
for assignments.
4. Do not accept any contradiction.
Ask, argue, debate
5. Attempt all problems even if you
are not sure
6. Do not give just non numeric
rating at end of each session. Give
frank feedback on what you liked
and what you didnt
7. Apply what you learn daily

5. Expert Judgment estimates
An expert is :
Qualified to answer questions
in the field
Recognized by peers
Has back ground on the subject

6. Expert Judgment applicable
When the following are not available
1.Measurements
2.Observations
3.Experimentation
4.Simulation

7. Nuclear fused salt reactor risks
When the following happens
1.You need to supplement existing data
2.Data is
1. Sparse
2. Questionable
3.Indirectly applicable
3.Learn expert’s solving technique
4.Determining Whats known, whats not
known ,whats worth knowing

8. Expert Judgment: Risk on a nuclear
reactor and approximate damage
Reactor size,
strength, fuel size,
coolant, structure etc
Precise
Inputs
Precise
Output
Failure scenarios,
Impact size, Likely
death tolls,
rebuilding costs,
Prevention means+
costs

9. Typical timelines
http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-
Probability/dp/0898714745

10. Process Semantics
Action Block
I

11. Assignment on Expert judgment
1. Context : You are the President of US and have got confirmed intelligence on the
hideout of Osama Bin Laden and have decided to authorize his capture/killing .
The operation involves Transporting elite Navy seals, Air Operations to transport
ammunitions and equipment , Land operations to neutralize the guards and
defenses and recover evidences . Finally transport the seals and body of Osama to
a Naval vessel and do the final rites .
2. Divide the team into 3 groups : Air , Navy , Land
3. Each team solves the problem of finding the time and aggregate cost of the
operation .
4. Allow each team to complete the plans and summarize the figures to team
5. Compare the estimates and plannings with actual operation :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Operation_Neptune_
Spear

12. Reference book
http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-
Probability/dp/0898714745

13. What’s Your Message?DRIVE WELL