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Locally Stationary Geostatistics
                                                                                                                                             David F. Machuca-Mory and Clayton V. Deutsch

                                                                                                              Sampling Data                                                         Calibration of the distance weighting function parameters                                                               Selection of anchor points                                                      Recalculate and store                                   Inference of local distributions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     n

Problem Statement:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  locations                                                                 distance weights                                  F (u; zk ;= Prob{Z (u) ≤ zk |=
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          o)                 o}   ∑ ω (uα ; o) ⋅ I (uα ; zk )   ∈ [0,1]
                                                                                                                                                                                    -Smooth adaptation                                                                                                     Minimize the number
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  α =1
                                                                                                                                                                                    to local features                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ∀uα ∈ D, k = K
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,...,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           of reference points
•Standard     geostatistical     simulation and                                                                                                                                     -Avoid overfitting                                                                                                     for the inference of
 estimation techniques are constrained by the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              location-dependent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           statistics without
 assumption of strict stationarity.                                                                                                                                                   Program : LDWgen                                                                                                     Introducing excessive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           error.
• This assumption may be to rigid modelling the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Program : LDWgen
 patterns produced by different geological                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Program : Histpltsim
 processes.

Proposed Approach: The Assumption of
                                                                                              Hermite models of the local normal                                                                   Local normal scores transformation            Location-dependent measures of                                                                                              Local variogram model fitting
Local Stationarity                                                                            scores transformations                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         • It is performed semiautomatically using minimum least squares
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 spatial continuity                                                                                                          criterion.
•Under this assumption the distributions and                                                   z = ϕ Z ( y; o ) 
                                                                                                                      Q
                                                                                                                     ∑ φq (o)H q [ y]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Location-dependent variogram:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             • Geological knowledge can be incorporated for
 their statistics are specific of each location o:                                                                   q =0                                                                    =           −1
                                                                                                                                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                                                                                         = F G ( y j ); o ϕ Z ( y j ; o)
                                                                                                                                                                                          zj                                 )                γ (h; o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              =
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1 N (h )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ∑      ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ [ y (uα ) − y (uα + h) ]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             guiding the fitting of anisotropy parameters.
                                                                                                          n                                                                                                       j = 1,..., n                         2 α =1
                                                                                                                           1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • A locally changing variogram shape is allowed:
                                                                                              φq (o)  ∑ (z j −1 − z j ) ⋅    H q −1 ( y j ) ⋅ g ( y j )
                                                    {
Prob {Z (uα ) < z1 ,..., Z (u n ) <= Prob Z (uα + h) < z1 ,..., Z (u n + h) < z K ; o j
                                   z K ; oi }                                             }            j =2                 q                                                                                                                    • Location-dependent covariance:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      N (h )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3 h′ b ( o )  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             γˆ (h; o) c(o). 1 − exp  − 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     =                                   0 < b(o) ≤ 2
                     ∀ uα , uα + h ∈ D, and only if i =j                                         Program : herco_loc                                                                               Program : nscore_loc                        C (h; o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               =                      ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ y(uα ) ⋅ y(uα + h) − m−h (o) ⋅ m+h (o)                                                                   az′ (o)   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      α =1                                                                                                                                                              Program : varfit_loc

•These are obtained by weighting the sample                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Location-dependent correlogram:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               C (h; o)
values inversely proportional to their distance to                                                                                                                                                                                         =ρ (h; o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2          2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         σ −h (o) ⋅ σ +h (o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ∈ [−1, +1]        Program : gamvlocal

the prediction point o.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              N (h )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ [ z (uα ) − m-h (o) ]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Interpolate and Store
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             N (h )                                         2                                                    2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          σ −h (o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          =                                                          ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   m-h (o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   =         ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ z (uα ) ,
•The same set of weights modify all the required                                                                                                                       Interpolate and store the local                                                                                                                                                                                      Interpolate and store local
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     α =1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             α =1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     N (h )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ [ z (uα + h) − m+h (o)]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             N (h )                                       2                                                              2


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         categorical proportions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        σ + h (o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        =
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   m+h (o)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   =          ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ z (uα + h)
                                                                                                                                                                            Hermite coefficients                                                                                                                                                                                              variogram parameters
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     α =1

statistics.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              α =1




•A Gaussian kernel can be used as weighting                                                                                               φ0 (o) =
                                                                                                                                          = E[ Z (u); o] m(o)

function:                                                                                                                                                         Q

                           ( d (u ; o) )2 
                                                                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                               σ Z (o)         ∑ φq2 (o)
                                                                                                                                                                q =1
                                   α
                  ε + exp  −              
                                 2s 2     
 ωGK (uα ; o) =                           
                      n       ( d (u ; o) )2   
                nε + ∑ exp  −        α
                                                
                     α =1           2s 2       
                                               


•2-point weights are obtained by averaging 1-
                                                                                                                Locally Stationary MultiGaussian Kriging                                                                                Locally Stationary Sequential Gaussian Simulation                                                                                                   Locally Stationary Sequential Indicator Simulation
point weights:                                                                                                  Point Kriging                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1.Read all required local parameters
                                                                                                                    n (o )
             ω (uα , uα + h; o)
                          =       ω (uα ; o) ⋅ ω (uα + h; o)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2.Follow random path
                                                                                                                    ∑ λβ( LSSK ) (o) ρ (u β − uα ; o) = (o − uα ; o)
                                                                                                                                                       ρ                     α = n(o)
                                                                                                                                                                               1,...,                                                    1.Read all required local parameters
                                                                                                                    β =1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2.Follow random path                                                                                                                                 3.Transform surrounding data locally
Benefits:                                                                                                 =1 − ∑ λα
                                                                                                                 2   n (o ) ( LSSK )
                                                                                                               σ LSSK (o)
                                                                                                          C (0; o) 
                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                       (o) ρ (o − uα ; o)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4.Build local covariances matrix
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3.Transform surrounding data locally
                                                                                                                     α =1                                
•Resulting models are richer in local features                                                            n (o )                           n (o ) ( LSSK )                                                                             4.Build local covariances matrix                                                                                                                     5.Perform locally stationary simple
                                                                                              = ∑ λα
                                                                                                 *
                                                                                               Z LSSK (o)        ( LSSK )
                                                                                                                          (o)[ Z (uα )] + 1 − ∑ λα         (o)  m(o)                                                                                                                                                                                                                          kriging
 and look geologically more realistic.                                                        = 1= 1      α                                α                                                                                           5.Perform locally stationary simple
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           kriging                                                                                                                                            6.Draw a random value
•This may result in improved accuracy                                                                           Block Kriging
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6.Draw a random value                                                                                                                                7.Backtransform the simulated value
                                                                                                                                                            Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and add it to the data set
•The uncertainty of posterior distributions is                                                                      z* (v(o=
                                                                                                                     p     ))    ϕv ( y* (v(o)); o)
                                                                                                                                       p         =         ∑ φq (o) ⋅r q (o) ⋅ H q [ y*p (v(o))]                                         7.Backtransform simulated value
                                                                                                                                                           q =0                                                                            and add it to the data set                                                                                                                         8. Continue from 2
 generally narrower                                                                                                                Q
                                                                                                                             =    ∑ φq (o) ⋅r q (o) ⋅ H q [YLSSK (v(o)) + σ LSSK (v(o)) ⋅ t p ]
                                                                                                                                                            *                                                                            8. Continue from 2
• Spatial connectivity is improved.                                                                                               q =0
                                                                                                                                               Program : kt3d_lMG                                                                           Program : ultisgsim                                                                                                                                 Program : sisim_loc

•A better performance is observed in transfer
 functions.
                                                                                                                                                    Model performance                                                                   Model Check                                                                                                                                        Model Check
Drawbacks:
•Increased demand of computer and
 professional resources.
•Local statistics are unreliable if data is scarce.

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Locally Stationary Geostatistics

  • 1. Locally Stationary Geostatistics David F. Machuca-Mory and Clayton V. Deutsch Sampling Data Calibration of the distance weighting function parameters Selection of anchor points Recalculate and store Inference of local distributions n Problem Statement: locations distance weights F (u; zk ;= Prob{Z (u) ≤ zk |= o) o} ∑ ω (uα ; o) ⋅ I (uα ; zk ) ∈ [0,1] -Smooth adaptation Minimize the number α =1 to local features ∀uα ∈ D, k = K 1,..., of reference points •Standard geostatistical simulation and -Avoid overfitting for the inference of estimation techniques are constrained by the location-dependent statistics without assumption of strict stationarity. Program : LDWgen Introducing excessive error. • This assumption may be to rigid modelling the Program : LDWgen patterns produced by different geological Program : Histpltsim processes. Proposed Approach: The Assumption of Hermite models of the local normal Local normal scores transformation Location-dependent measures of Local variogram model fitting Local Stationarity scores transformations • It is performed semiautomatically using minimum least squares spatial continuity criterion. •Under this assumption the distributions and z = ϕ Z ( y; o )  Q ∑ φq (o)H q [ y] • Location-dependent variogram: • Geological knowledge can be incorporated for their statistics are specific of each location o: q =0 = −1 ( = F G ( y j ); o ϕ Z ( y j ; o) zj ) γ (h; o) = 1 N (h ) ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ [ y (uα ) − y (uα + h) ] 2 guiding the fitting of anisotropy parameters. n j = 1,..., n 2 α =1 1 • A locally changing variogram shape is allowed: φq (o)  ∑ (z j −1 − z j ) ⋅ H q −1 ( y j ) ⋅ g ( y j ) { Prob {Z (uα ) < z1 ,..., Z (u n ) <= Prob Z (uα + h) < z1 ,..., Z (u n + h) < z K ; o j z K ; oi } } j =2 q • Location-dependent covariance: N (h )    3 h′ b ( o )   γˆ (h; o) c(o). 1 − exp  −  =   0 < b(o) ≤ 2 ∀ uα , uα + h ∈ D, and only if i =j Program : herco_loc Program : nscore_loc C (h; o) = ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ y(uα ) ⋅ y(uα + h) − m−h (o) ⋅ m+h (o)    az′ (o)      α =1  Program : varfit_loc •These are obtained by weighting the sample • Location-dependent correlogram: C (h; o) values inversely proportional to their distance to =ρ (h; o) 2 2 σ −h (o) ⋅ σ +h (o) ∈ [−1, +1] Program : gamvlocal the prediction point o. N (h ) ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ [ z (uα ) − m-h (o) ] Interpolate and Store N (h ) 2 2 σ −h (o) = , m-h (o) = ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ z (uα ) , •The same set of weights modify all the required Interpolate and store the local Interpolate and store local α =1 α =1 N (h ) ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ [ z (uα + h) − m+h (o)] N (h ) 2 2 categorical proportions σ + h (o) = m+h (o) = ∑ ω ′(uα , uα + h; o) ⋅ z (uα + h) Hermite coefficients variogram parameters α =1 statistics. α =1 •A Gaussian kernel can be used as weighting φ0 (o) = = E[ Z (u); o] m(o) function: Q  ( d (u ; o) )2  2 σ Z (o)  ∑ φq2 (o) q =1 α ε + exp  −   2s 2  ωGK (uα ; o) =   n  ( d (u ; o) )2  nε + ∑ exp  − α  α =1  2s 2    •2-point weights are obtained by averaging 1- Locally Stationary MultiGaussian Kriging Locally Stationary Sequential Gaussian Simulation Locally Stationary Sequential Indicator Simulation point weights: Point Kriging 1.Read all required local parameters n (o ) ω (uα , uα + h; o) = ω (uα ; o) ⋅ ω (uα + h; o) 2.Follow random path ∑ λβ( LSSK ) (o) ρ (u β − uα ; o) = (o − uα ; o) ρ α = n(o) 1,..., 1.Read all required local parameters β =1 2.Follow random path 3.Transform surrounding data locally Benefits: =1 − ∑ λα 2  n (o ) ( LSSK ) σ LSSK (o) C (0; o)   (o) ρ (o − uα ; o)  4.Build local covariances matrix 3.Transform surrounding data locally  α =1  •Resulting models are richer in local features n (o )  n (o ) ( LSSK )  4.Build local covariances matrix 5.Perform locally stationary simple = ∑ λα * Z LSSK (o) ( LSSK ) (o)[ Z (uα )] + 1 − ∑ λα (o)  m(o) kriging and look geologically more realistic. = 1= 1 α  α  5.Perform locally stationary simple kriging 6.Draw a random value •This may result in improved accuracy Block Kriging 6.Draw a random value 7.Backtransform the simulated value Q and add it to the data set •The uncertainty of posterior distributions is z* (v(o= p )) ϕv ( y* (v(o)); o) p = ∑ φq (o) ⋅r q (o) ⋅ H q [ y*p (v(o))] 7.Backtransform simulated value q =0 and add it to the data set 8. Continue from 2 generally narrower Q = ∑ φq (o) ⋅r q (o) ⋅ H q [YLSSK (v(o)) + σ LSSK (v(o)) ⋅ t p ] * 8. Continue from 2 • Spatial connectivity is improved. q =0 Program : kt3d_lMG Program : ultisgsim Program : sisim_loc •A better performance is observed in transfer functions. Model performance Model Check Model Check Drawbacks: •Increased demand of computer and professional resources. •Local statistics are unreliable if data is scarce.