This document discusses how burn down charts can provide insights into team performance over time. It analyzes metrics like work completed, work remaining, and work added on a quarterly release burn down chart. These metrics can indicate things like whether the team's velocity is improving, if there is scope creep, and how many sprints are forecast to complete the remaining work. The document also outlines some key team performance indicators that can be measured, like velocity, debt, scope creep, and forecast, to help understand the team's progress and identify areas for improvement.

1. Data-Driven
Decision Making
Burn-Down Charts Tell Stories
viz. Team Performance Indicators
Are you listening?

2. Release Burn Down
Looking at a release burn down, we
should be able to answer the following
questions easily.
How much work was added?
How much work was completed?
How much work remained in
progress?
What is the forecast?
Is there a pattern here?
Is the unit of work truly
representative?
We use a release burn down for this
analysis because it gives us long
enough trajectory to measure and state
quantifiable facts about the performance
of a team.
!2
Quarterly Release Burn-down
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Sprint 6
Story Points
0 75 150 225 300
30
88
20
110
113
137
101
150
95
53
51
55
18
15
17
Completed
Remaining
Added

3. Work Added
This metric:
Gives a view into the work
discovered and added to the
release. e.g. New Features,
Enhancements, Defects etc.
Should consistently be a multiple
of “completed” work to maintain a
healthy pace.
Can be an indicator of the Product
Management and Scrum Process
efficiency.
Work added to a Sprint is a strong
indicator for “Scope Creep” and
can be a strong factor in
determining overall velocity and
how it is impacted over time.
Quarterly Release Burn-down
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Sprint 6
Story Points
0 75 150 225 300
30
88
20
110
113
137
101
150
95
53
51
55
18
15
17
Completed
Remaining
Added
!3

4. Work Completed
This metric:
Gives a view into the average
velocity of a team as the time
progresses.
There is no baseline to compare this
against - except a rolling average
over three sprints might give a
pretty reasonable predictability.
In this illustration - the team seems
to have improved the velocity after first
three sprints - which can be
interpreted as a period of major
impediments like poor requirements,
capacity shortage, technical difficulties
or other variables that need triaging
and a good understanding of the
context.
Quarterly Release Burn-down
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Sprint 6
Story Points
0 75 150 225 300
30
88
20
110
113
137
101
150
95
53
51
55
18
15
17
Completed
Remaining
Added
!4

5. Work Pending
This metric:
Tells us the debt to be rolled over
to the next Sprint.
Scope Creeps can cause a huge
carry-over of debt making the
quality of estimates to be very
poor.
Should drive the capacity demand
and fulfillment.
In this illustration - the team seems
to have been either over-allocated
OR under-resourced, constantly
catching up to the debt. Additionally,
healthy pipeline of new work just
seems to be piling up the debt
consistently from Sprint to Sprint.
Quarterly Release Burn-down
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Sprint 6
Story Points
0 75 150 225 300
30
88
20
110
113
137
101
150
95
53
51
55
18
15
17
Completed
Remaining
Added
!5

6. Work Forecast
There is no direct forecast possible
except for using the velocity and total
debt as an indicator for a “no-change”
forecast.
Velocity: Rolling Average of
Completed Work in the past three
Sprints.
Total Debt: Remaining work +
Added work in the current Sprint.
“No-Change” Forecast: Total Debt /
Velocity
“No-Change” here implies the team will
not see any additional work or
impediments. No change in capacity.
“Forecast” is the number of Sprints it
will take to finish the remaining work
given there is “no-change”.
Quarterly Release Burn-down
Sprint 1
Sprint 2
Sprint 3
Sprint 4
Sprint 5
Sprint 6
Story Points
0 75 150 225 300
30
88
20
110
113
137
101
150
95
53
51
55
18
15
17
Completed
Remaining
Added
!6

7. Team Performance Indicators (TPI)
• Velocity - Story Point Burn Rate - Gives a quantifiable way to measure how much work
is being delivered in each Sprint.
• Rolling Avg. Velocity - Avg. Burn Rate - A rolling average of velocity (usually over last
2-3 sprints) gives a more reasonable number for estimating a timeline for remaining
work.
• Debt - Outstanding Planned Work - Unfinished outstanding work that is directly tied to
the completion of the quarterly goals.
• Scope Creep - Unplanned Work - New work added to a Sprint (after the start of the
sprint) as a proportion of the original work assigned to the team (before the sprint start.)
• Story Point - Unit of work - Usually measured in time - in the illustration shown in this
deck, 1 Story Point is equal to 8 hours of uninterrupted work clocked against a single
User Story, Defect or Enhancement.
• Sprint - Length of Time - Usually two weeks or 10 business days, with a total expected
story points worth of 10 per head.
• Potential Risk - Unsized Unplanned Work - Stories that haven’t been fully discovered
and can’t be planned because of missing requirement details.
• Forecast - Tentative Timeline for Release - Number of sprints it would take to finish all
the Debt, provided there is no change in capacity and no scope-creeps.

8. TPI Suggestions
Measured As Ideal Baseline Acceptable
Velocity Story Points Per Sprint
80% Total Sprint Story
Points
65% Total Sprint Story
Points
Rolling Avg.
Velocity
Avg. Velocity Last Three
Sprints
Same as above Same as above
Debt Planned Story Points
Resource x Velocity x
Efficiency x X-Factor
2X - 3X of Current Debt.
Scope Creep Unplanned Story Points 5% 20%
Story Point
Time Spent on a Story -
usually 8 hours
Fibonacci Series
Even distribution across
the available time
Sprint 10 business days 10 business days 5 business days
Potential Risk Unsized Story Points Less than 5% Up to 10%
Forecast Sprints Remaining 2-5 Sprints 6-10 Sprints

9. Thanks!