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                                                                                                                                                              Vol. 11, No. 16 / January 23, 2013

         USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report, released yester-                                                                        MEAT IN COLD STORAGE
day, indicate that there is PLENTY of meat and poultry protein
                                                                                                                        Total Meat        Beef             Chicken             Pork              Turkey
products in freezers as of December 31, 2012. That statement, of
course, could have been made pretty much every month since April                                           Individual Species                                                         Total Meat & Poultry
but the 12.2% higher inventories as of December 31 represents the
                                                                                                          1200                                                                                            2400
largest year-on-year comparison of month-end frozen stocks since
they were 13.9% larger back in December 2008. But note that this
                                                                                                          . 1000
                                                                                                          t                                                                                               2000   .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 t
comparison is being made to the lowest December stocks since
                                                                                                          W                                                                                                      W
2003 in 2012. The 2.024 billion pounds of product in freezers this                                        C                                                                                                      C
                                                                                                          T 800                                                                                           1600   T
past December 31 is still nearly 10% lower than that the December                                         R
                                                                                                          /                                                                                                      R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 /
                                                                                                          c
                                                                                                          r                                                                                                      c
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 r
record level in 2008.                                                                                     a                                                                                                      a
                                                                                                          C 600                                                                                           1200   C
         The monthly data appear in the chart at right. Note that all                                     ,
                                                                                                          .                                                                                                      ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 .
                                                                                                          s                                                                                                      s
                                                                                                          b                                                                                                      b
individual species are read off the left axis while the total (represent-                                 L
                                                                                                          . 400
                                                                                                          l
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 L
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 l
                                                                                                          i                                                                                               800    i
ed by the green bars) is read off the right axis. Data for all species                                    M                                                                                                      M
and individual cuts for December 31 appear in the table on page 2.
                                                                                                            200                                                                                           400
         Some highlights of the report are:
•       The largest percentage year-on-year increase for any species is                                       0                                                                                           0
        for turkey, 295.1 million pounds of which were in freezers on                                              00    01     02   03   04     05   06    07       08   09   10      11   12
        December 31. That is an increase of 40% from last year and
        15.6% from last month. Turkey stocks have been moving gen-                                    •      Chicken supplies continue to run significantly higher than one
        erally higher for three years now and the November seasonal                                          year ago with December 31 stocks coming in at 679.3 million
        low point this year was at its highest level since 2004 with the                                     pounds, up 7.9% yr/yr. That total is also just over 1% larger than
        exception of 2008.                                                                                   at the end of November.
•       Stocks of whole birds, which generally account for about one          •                              The primary culprits for chicken stocks remain leg products
        third of turkey stocks, were the biggest factor in the rise of turkey                                which generally go to export markets. Inventories of every hind
        inventories from November and 2012. The 95.2 million pounds                                          quarter product except thighs and thigh quarters were sharply
        of whole birds in freezers was 76% more than last year and 22%                                       higher than last year. The total stock of leg quarters, legs, thigh
        more than at the end of November. Breast stocks were 45%                                             and thigh quarters and thigh meat on December 31 was 138.293
        larger than last year and 10% larger than in November.                                               million pounds, 9.3% higher than last year.
•       Frozen pork inventories, though slightly lower than at the end of •                                  Breast and breast meat stocks were quite close to year-ago lev-
        November, remain large as well at 554.413 million pounds. That                                       els and 5% higher than last month.
        figure is 14.4% larger than last year. This year’s December 31
        pork stocks are the second largest ever for December, trailing    •                                  The 69.4 million pounds of wings in freezers was 68% higher
        only those of 2008.                                                                                  than last year. The combination of higher production (chicken
                                                                                                             output was larger than one year ago in 11 of 13 Q4-2012 weeks
•       The primary culprit in the increase in pork stocks is ribs — an
                                                                                                             and was up 3.8%, yr/yr, for the quarter based on weekly data),
        unusual one from a historical standpoint but a continuation of a                                     these sharply higher stocks and record-high prices of over $2/lb.
        pattern for 2012. The 109.35 million pounds of ribs in freezers is                                   clearly point to remarkable demand for chicken wings. This, of
        48% higher than last year and 6% higher than last month. The                                         course, is normally the seasonal high for chicken wing demand
        quantity is record large and represents about 20% of total pork                                      as people prepare for Super Bowl parties (how about those Har-
        stocks. The 35.394 million pounds INCREASE in frozen rib                                             baugh boys, by the way?) but this recent data just reinforces
        stocks accounted for about half of the increase in total pork in                                     what has been a remarkable year for wings. And the trend
        freezers versus one year ago.                                                                        shows no signs of stopping — yet.
•       Ham stocks remain large relative to last year (+47%) but the    •                                    Frozen beef supplies were 5.4% larger than last month but were
        81.9 million pounds in freezers on December 31 was 16.2% low-                                        only 1.8% higher than last year. The year-year comparison for
        er than just one month ago so it appears that holiday ham move-                                      boneless beef, which comprises about 85% of the total in most
        ment was good. Bone-in stocks are down sharply from last                                             months, was a bit different with Dec 31 stocks coming in 1.7%
        month (-41%) at 28.2 million pounds.                                                                 lower than last year.

                     The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy reading this report and would like to
                           sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor by going to our website: www.DailyLivestockReport.com
                                                                                  Thank you for your support!
    The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer & Len Steiner, Inc., Adel, IA and Merrimack, NH. To subscribe, support or unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Copyright © 2013
    Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, Inc. All rights reserved.
    The Daily Livestock Report is not owned, controlled, endorsed or sold by CME Group Inc. or its affiliates and CME Group Inc. and its affiliates disclaim any and all responsibility for the informa on
    contained herein. CME Group®, CME® and the Globe logo are trademarks of Chicago Mercan le Exchange, Inc.
    Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for informa on purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implica on or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicita-
      on to buy or trade any commodi es or securi es whatsoever. Informa on is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or
    possible where projec ons of future condi ons are a empted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indica on of future performance.
    Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money ini ally deposited for a futures
    posi on. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affec ng their lifestyle. And only a por on of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a
    trader cannot expect to profit on every trade.
Sponsored by

                                                                                             Vol. 11, No. 16 / January 23, 2013


                           USDA Cold Storage Report
                                 January 22, 2013
Product                              Quantity in All Warehouses                            Current as pct. of:
                                12/31/11               11/30/12                 12/31/12   12/31/11    11/30/12
Chicken                          -------------- Thous. Lbs. ----------------
  Whole Chickens                   17694                11,518                   13,902        78.6      120.7
  Hens, Mature Chickens             1586                 1,213                    1,109        69.9       91.4
  Breasts & Breast Meat          131445               124,359                   130,617        99.4      105.0
  Drumsticks                       26228                17,082                   19,066        72.7      111.6
  Leg Quarters                     79900                84,744                   97,745       122.3      115.3
  Legs                              9710                17,152                   13,286       136.8       77.5
  Thigh & Thigh Quarters           10293                 7,551                    8,196        79.6      108.5
  Thigh Meat                       17216                16,929                   21,229       123.3      125.4
  Wings                            41194                74,858                   69,385       168.4       92.7
  Paws and Feet                    37775                24,686                   24,743        65.5      100.2
  Other                          256750               291,699                   280,006       109.1       96.0
Total Chicken                   629,791               671,791                   679,284       107.9      101.1
Turkey
 Whole Turkeys                   54,033                 77,897                   95,249       176.3      122.3
   Toms (Whole)                  20,440                 39,376                   46,539       227.7      118.2
   Hens (Whole)                  33,593                 38,521                   48,710       145.0      126.5
 Breasts                         37,140                 48,908                   53,954       145.3      110.3
 Legs                            22,928                 15,450                   18,799        82.0      121.7
 Mech. Deboned Turkey             6,663                  8,072                    8,855       132.9      109.7
 Other Turkey                    32,240                 28,000                   29,755        92.3      106.3
 Unclassified                    57,783                 76,864                   88,492       153.1      115.1
Total Turkey                    210,787                255,191                  295,104       140.0      115.6
Ducks                             2,402                  1,540                    2,363        98.4      153.4
Total Poultry                   842,980                928,522                  976,751       115.9      105.2
Frozen Pork
  Picnics, Bone-in                9,337                  8,512                    7,956        85.2       93.5
  Hams, Total                    55,726                 97,683                   81,901       147.0       83.8
   Bone-in                       15,529                 47,990                   28,204       181.6       58.8
   Boneless 3/                   40,197                 49,693                   53,697       133.6      108.1
  Bellies                        41,469                 23,837                   36,841        88.8      154.6
  Loins, Total                   42,041                 48,999                   42,102       100.1       85.9
   Bone-in                       14,971                 15,659                   15,764       105.3      100.7
   Boneless 4/                   27,070                 33,340                   26,338        97.3       79.0
  Ribs 5/                        73,956                103,126                  109,350       147.9      106.0
  Butts                          19,585                 30,049                   25,925       132.4       86.3
  Trimmings 6/                   48,668                 47,874                   52,960       108.8      110.6
  Other 7/                       96,892                104,393                  102,456       105.7       98.1
  Variety Meats 8/               35,419                 28,855                   28,002        79.1       97.0
  Unclassified 9/                61,404                 65,360                   66,920       109.0      102.4
Total Pork                      484,497                558,688                  554,413       114.4       99.2
Frozen Beef
  Boneless 1/                   397,316                368,705                  390,755        98.3      106.0
  Beef Cuts 2/                   59,907                 73,054                   74,737       124.8      102.3
Total Beef                      457,223                441,759                  465,492       101.8      105.4
Other Meat
  Veal                            2,881                  3,942                    5,303       184.1      134.5
  Lamb & Mutton                  16,857                 18,978                   21,679       128.6      114.2
Total Other Meat                 19,738                 22,920                   26,982       136.7      117.7

Total Meat                      961,458              1,023,367                 1,046,887      108.9      102.3

Total Meat & Poultry           1,804,438             1,951,889                 2,023,638      112.1      103.7

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Daily livestock report jan 23 2013

  • 1. Sponsored by Vol. 11, No. 16 / January 23, 2013 USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report, released yester- MEAT IN COLD STORAGE day, indicate that there is PLENTY of meat and poultry protein Total Meat Beef Chicken Pork Turkey products in freezers as of December 31, 2012. That statement, of course, could have been made pretty much every month since April Individual Species Total Meat & Poultry but the 12.2% higher inventories as of December 31 represents the 1200 2400 largest year-on-year comparison of month-end frozen stocks since they were 13.9% larger back in December 2008. But note that this . 1000 t 2000 . t comparison is being made to the lowest December stocks since W W 2003 in 2012. The 2.024 billion pounds of product in freezers this C C T 800 1600 T past December 31 is still nearly 10% lower than that the December R / R / c r c r record level in 2008. a a C 600 1200 C The monthly data appear in the chart at right. Note that all , . , . s s b b individual species are read off the left axis while the total (represent- L . 400 l L . l i 800 i ed by the green bars) is read off the right axis. Data for all species M M and individual cuts for December 31 appear in the table on page 2. 200 400 Some highlights of the report are: • The largest percentage year-on-year increase for any species is 0 0 for turkey, 295.1 million pounds of which were in freezers on 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 December 31. That is an increase of 40% from last year and 15.6% from last month. Turkey stocks have been moving gen- • Chicken supplies continue to run significantly higher than one erally higher for three years now and the November seasonal year ago with December 31 stocks coming in at 679.3 million low point this year was at its highest level since 2004 with the pounds, up 7.9% yr/yr. That total is also just over 1% larger than exception of 2008. at the end of November. • Stocks of whole birds, which generally account for about one • The primary culprits for chicken stocks remain leg products third of turkey stocks, were the biggest factor in the rise of turkey which generally go to export markets. Inventories of every hind inventories from November and 2012. The 95.2 million pounds quarter product except thighs and thigh quarters were sharply of whole birds in freezers was 76% more than last year and 22% higher than last year. The total stock of leg quarters, legs, thigh more than at the end of November. Breast stocks were 45% and thigh quarters and thigh meat on December 31 was 138.293 larger than last year and 10% larger than in November. million pounds, 9.3% higher than last year. • Frozen pork inventories, though slightly lower than at the end of • Breast and breast meat stocks were quite close to year-ago lev- November, remain large as well at 554.413 million pounds. That els and 5% higher than last month. figure is 14.4% larger than last year. This year’s December 31 pork stocks are the second largest ever for December, trailing • The 69.4 million pounds of wings in freezers was 68% higher only those of 2008. than last year. The combination of higher production (chicken output was larger than one year ago in 11 of 13 Q4-2012 weeks • The primary culprit in the increase in pork stocks is ribs — an and was up 3.8%, yr/yr, for the quarter based on weekly data), unusual one from a historical standpoint but a continuation of a these sharply higher stocks and record-high prices of over $2/lb. pattern for 2012. The 109.35 million pounds of ribs in freezers is clearly point to remarkable demand for chicken wings. This, of 48% higher than last year and 6% higher than last month. The course, is normally the seasonal high for chicken wing demand quantity is record large and represents about 20% of total pork as people prepare for Super Bowl parties (how about those Har- stocks. The 35.394 million pounds INCREASE in frozen rib baugh boys, by the way?) but this recent data just reinforces stocks accounted for about half of the increase in total pork in what has been a remarkable year for wings. And the trend freezers versus one year ago. shows no signs of stopping — yet. • Ham stocks remain large relative to last year (+47%) but the • Frozen beef supplies were 5.4% larger than last month but were 81.9 million pounds in freezers on December 31 was 16.2% low- only 1.8% higher than last year. The year-year comparison for er than just one month ago so it appears that holiday ham move- boneless beef, which comprises about 85% of the total in most ment was good. Bone-in stocks are down sharply from last months, was a bit different with Dec 31 stocks coming in 1.7% month (-41%) at 28.2 million pounds. lower than last year. The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy reading this report and would like to sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor by going to our website: www.DailyLivestockReport.com Thank you for your support! The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer & Len Steiner, Inc., Adel, IA and Merrimack, NH. To subscribe, support or unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Copyright © 2013 Steve Meyer and Len Steiner, Inc. All rights reserved. The Daily Livestock Report is not owned, controlled, endorsed or sold by CME Group Inc. or its affiliates and CME Group Inc. and its affiliates disclaim any and all responsibility for the informa on contained herein. CME Group®, CME® and the Globe logo are trademarks of Chicago Mercan le Exchange, Inc. Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for informa on purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implica on or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicita- on to buy or trade any commodi es or securi es whatsoever. Informa on is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projec ons of future condi ons are a empted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indica on of future performance. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money ini ally deposited for a futures posi on. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affec ng their lifestyle. And only a por on of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a trader cannot expect to profit on every trade.
  • 2. Sponsored by Vol. 11, No. 16 / January 23, 2013 USDA Cold Storage Report January 22, 2013 Product Quantity in All Warehouses Current as pct. of: 12/31/11 11/30/12 12/31/12 12/31/11 11/30/12 Chicken -------------- Thous. Lbs. ---------------- Whole Chickens 17694 11,518 13,902 78.6 120.7 Hens, Mature Chickens 1586 1,213 1,109 69.9 91.4 Breasts & Breast Meat 131445 124,359 130,617 99.4 105.0 Drumsticks 26228 17,082 19,066 72.7 111.6 Leg Quarters 79900 84,744 97,745 122.3 115.3 Legs 9710 17,152 13,286 136.8 77.5 Thigh & Thigh Quarters 10293 7,551 8,196 79.6 108.5 Thigh Meat 17216 16,929 21,229 123.3 125.4 Wings 41194 74,858 69,385 168.4 92.7 Paws and Feet 37775 24,686 24,743 65.5 100.2 Other 256750 291,699 280,006 109.1 96.0 Total Chicken 629,791 671,791 679,284 107.9 101.1 Turkey Whole Turkeys 54,033 77,897 95,249 176.3 122.3 Toms (Whole) 20,440 39,376 46,539 227.7 118.2 Hens (Whole) 33,593 38,521 48,710 145.0 126.5 Breasts 37,140 48,908 53,954 145.3 110.3 Legs 22,928 15,450 18,799 82.0 121.7 Mech. Deboned Turkey 6,663 8,072 8,855 132.9 109.7 Other Turkey 32,240 28,000 29,755 92.3 106.3 Unclassified 57,783 76,864 88,492 153.1 115.1 Total Turkey 210,787 255,191 295,104 140.0 115.6 Ducks 2,402 1,540 2,363 98.4 153.4 Total Poultry 842,980 928,522 976,751 115.9 105.2 Frozen Pork Picnics, Bone-in 9,337 8,512 7,956 85.2 93.5 Hams, Total 55,726 97,683 81,901 147.0 83.8 Bone-in 15,529 47,990 28,204 181.6 58.8 Boneless 3/ 40,197 49,693 53,697 133.6 108.1 Bellies 41,469 23,837 36,841 88.8 154.6 Loins, Total 42,041 48,999 42,102 100.1 85.9 Bone-in 14,971 15,659 15,764 105.3 100.7 Boneless 4/ 27,070 33,340 26,338 97.3 79.0 Ribs 5/ 73,956 103,126 109,350 147.9 106.0 Butts 19,585 30,049 25,925 132.4 86.3 Trimmings 6/ 48,668 47,874 52,960 108.8 110.6 Other 7/ 96,892 104,393 102,456 105.7 98.1 Variety Meats 8/ 35,419 28,855 28,002 79.1 97.0 Unclassified 9/ 61,404 65,360 66,920 109.0 102.4 Total Pork 484,497 558,688 554,413 114.4 99.2 Frozen Beef Boneless 1/ 397,316 368,705 390,755 98.3 106.0 Beef Cuts 2/ 59,907 73,054 74,737 124.8 102.3 Total Beef 457,223 441,759 465,492 101.8 105.4 Other Meat Veal 2,881 3,942 5,303 184.1 134.5 Lamb & Mutton 16,857 18,978 21,679 128.6 114.2 Total Other Meat 19,738 22,920 26,982 136.7 117.7 Total Meat 961,458 1,023,367 1,046,887 108.9 102.3 Total Meat & Poultry 1,804,438 1,951,889 2,023,638 112.1 103.7